The “aspirational goal” was signed off by transport ministers at the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao) assembly in Montreal, Canada.

But there is currently no viable technology to eliminate planes’ emissions and airlines and governments at Icao have not contemplated reducing flying itself.

Airlines have largely chosen to use much-criticised carbon offset schemes to meet their climate targets.

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A group of mostly high-income countries calling itself the “climate ambition coalition” pushed for the 2050 net zero goal against opposition from Russia and China.

Industry trade body Iata also backed the goal despite reported opposition from Chinese airlines.

At a preparatory meeting of the UN’s aviation body in July, 2050 net zero was put forward to the tri-annual Icao assembly in Montreal this week.

At the assembly, US transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg said the goal was “achievable if we act” and called on the assembly to “bring Icao fully into the world’s fight against climate change”.

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New Zealand’s representative wrote that the target was “the minimum aspiration this sector should aim for”.

But Russia’s representative told the assembly that the target “will without a doubt impose an unsustainable burden on the industry”.

China used a climate justice argument. Its delegation said the net zero goal “would lead to discriminatory market distortions to the disadvantage of developing countries” and that “China firmly opposes developed countries’ attempt to transfer their responsibility for emissions reductions to developing countries”.

But the majority of countries supported the net zero goal. It has been approved by the executive committee and goes to plenary today. The executive committee and plenary members are mostly the same people so it is likely to pass.

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From the assembly in Montreal, the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation’s Tim Johnson said: “We hope Icao can agree a net zero 2050 goal today that would begin a process to bring aviation in line with the Paris Agreement. This has been a hard fought negotiation but the really hard work starts now to introduce the measures that will decarbonise the industry.”

Other campaigners were more critical. Anne Kretzschmar from Stay Grounded said: “Adopting a climate target with no binding commitments for states and no interim targets is like building an aeroplane without wings”.

Johnson said that green groups had pushed for interim targets in Montreal and, while the US and some European states had supported them, they had not wanted to jeopardise an agreement by pushing too hard for them.

Transport and Environment’s aviation lead Jo Dardenne questioned how aviation would meet its target.

“Having a long term aspirational goal on one side and then having a poor offsetting scheme [Corsia] on the other side and defending that it’s going to get aviation down to zero is just laughable,” she said.

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The industry’s main technological solution to aviation emissions is the use of “sustainable aviation fuels” made out of plant matter. A recent report from the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) cautioned growing crops for energy has some downsides for the climate and cannot be produced at the scale needed to meet projected future aviation demand.

Instead, CATF says governments should research next-generation fuels like those based on clean hydrogen. These are years away from being commercially available.

Airlines have used offsets to claim emissions reductions. But these offsets, including Icao’s own Corsia scheme, have been widely criticised. Recently, budget European airline Easyjet said it would no longer use offsets and would focus on reducing its own emissions instead.

The post International air travel set for ‘aspirational’ 2050 net zero goal appeared first on Climate Home News.

The 36 countries that sit on the council of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao) – the UN body responsible for aviation – agreed on Tuesday to ease airlines’ obligation to offset their emission growth until at least 2023.

The move effectively postpones the date airlines have to start paying for carbon credits to offset a portion of their climate impact.

The decision was made after the International Air Transport Association (Iata) lobbied Icao to change the baseline from which emissions growth will be measured – a move it estimates could save airlines $15 billion in carbon offsetting costs.

As air travel collapsed in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and with many airlines pleading for government bailouts, Iata argued previously agreed rules would create “an inappropriate economic burden on the sector”.

But observers and campaigners say the move has deflated the little ambition of the aviation’s sector climate plan, which was already “far below what is needed to avoid climate catastrophe”, according to a coalition of NGOs.

Prior to the rules being weakened, research by Climate Action Tracker judged the sector’s climate goals and the measures proposed to meet it “critically insufficient”.

Aviation’s black box: Non-disclosure agreements, closed doors and rising CO2

In a statement, the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation (ICSA) said the decision was a “betrayal to future generations and a slap in the face of the multilateral work to build the programme”.

The ICSA has repeatedly said rewriting the rules of the aviation’s climate deal wasn’t necessary, as a flexibility provision in the scheme would have allowed airlines to reduce their offsetting cost until 2023.

Gilles Dufrasne, senior policy officer at Carbon Market Watch, said airlines were “making a mockery of governments and taxpayers, taking public money while fighting climate policies”.

The meeting’s outcome was described by Icao in a tweet as “great news for the environment” and safeguarding the sector’s emission reduction programme.

Bas Eickhout, a Dutch Green lawmaker in the European Parliament, reacted with incredulity:

Seriously? You are adjusting the baseline to 2019 only with procedural tricks, further undermining CORSIA’s credibility, and you spin that as great news for the environment. Is this an UN account or did aviation industry now also take over your twitter account? https://t.co/OEK3rz1toD

— Bas Eickhout (@BasEickhout) July 1, 2020

National members of Icao have agreed to make all growth in aviation emissions carbon neutral from 2020. With few technological solutions currently available to reduce planes’ pollution, airlines were expected to fund emissions cuts in other sectors, under a carbon market called Corsia.

The agreed baseline for measuring emissions was to be the two-year average across 2019 and 2020. But with 2020 turning into a year of anomalously low air travel because of restrictions to contain the spread of Covid-19, airlines proposed to change the baseline to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

The Icao Council – which includes the world’s largest air travel manufacturing and infrastructure nations – agreed to change the baseline to 2019 for the first three years of the Corsia programme’s voluntary stage from 2021-23.

This means that if the sector’s emissions don’t rise above 2019 levels during that time – and traffic is expected to take some time to rebound – airlines won’t have to pay anything for their climate impacts.

The 193 members of Icao’s Assembly will decide in 2022 whether to continue with the baseline change beyond 2023 or revert back to the previously agreed 2019-20 average.

The proposal was pushed by the EU, which had formally endorsed rewriting the rules.

The US had threatened to withdraw from the scheme’s voluntary stage if the baseline was not changed, according to Dutch infrastructure minister Cora van Nieuwenhuizen in a letter updating Dutch lawmakers on negotiations published on 26 June.

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Dufrasne, of Carbon Market Watch, accused Icao of “failing” to tackle the aviation sector’s climate problem. He echoed other campaigners’ calls for governments to regulate the industry at a national or regional level by ending the sector’s tax breaks and putting a price on pollution.

Previous analysis by the Öko-Institut in Germany and the US-based Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) found using the 2019-only baseline could give airlines a free pass to pollute until 2027, depending on the shape of the recovery.

Dan Rutherford, aviation director at the International Council on Clean Transportation, added this would make Corsia’s coverage of the sector’s emissions fall below 10% of global aviation CO2 emission to 2035 – meaning 90% of airlines’ carbon emissions would be “free of charge”.

As airlines try to woo back customers concerned about both Covid-19 and the climate impacts of flying, “they can’t afford to ignore the looming global crisis of climate change,” said Annie Petsonk, an aviation expert at EDF.

“The sooner that the costs of carbon control are included in the costs of doing business, the sooner new technologies will be developed.”

The move also means airlines will “lose their first-mover advantage” in securing long-term supply contracts from carbon credit suppliers, she added.

The post Airlines’ climate obligations postponed as UN body endorses industry proposal appeared first on Climate Home News.

The International Air Transport Association (Iata), which represents the world’s airlines, has called on the UN body responsible for aviation to rewrite the rules for offsetting the sector’s emissions growth.

To curb the aviation sector’s growing emissions, member states of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao) have agreed to make all growth in international flights carbon neutral after 2020.

With limited technical solutions available to make planes less polluting, airlines will rely on a carbon market known as Corsia. The scheme allows them to offset their emissions growth by funding carbon-cutting projects in other sectors.

The agreed baseline for measuring emissions was to be the two-year average across 2019 and 2020. However 2020 is turning into a year of anomalously low air travel, with planes grounded by travel restrictions to prevent the spread of Covid-19. That means airlines would have a bigger offsetting obligation than they anticipated if traffic rebounds quickly.

Iata is urging Icao to change the baseline to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 – a move it says could save airlines an estimated $15 billion in carbon offsetting costs.

Airlines urge UN body to ease climate goals for 2020s as traffic collapses

Last month, Iata described maintaining the 2019-2020 baseline as “an inappropriate economic burden” that would “significantly” increase the number of offsets airlines would need to buy to meet the climate target and lead to higher costs.

The proposal is to be discussed at an upcoming Icao Council meeting – a body of 36 countries, including the world’s largest plane manufacturing and airport hub nations – 8-26 June in Montreal, Canada.

The plan would “delay airlines’ climate mitigation requirements by several years and lead to significantly fewer emission reductions,” according to Lambert Schneider, research coordinator for international climate policy at the German-based Öko-Institut, who studied the impact of Iata’s proposal on climate action.

Industry experts have argued that a lower 2019-2020 baseline would have a negligible impact on airlines’ offsetting requirements and associated costs.

On the contrary, the study by the Öko-Institut found that Iata’s proposal to increase the baseline to 2019-only emissions would reduce airlines’ obligations to offset emissions growth between 25% and 75% by 2035 – depending on the speed of air travel recovery.

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Schneider and his co-author Jakob Graichen concluded that Iata’s proposal would remove incentives for the aviation sector to invest in carbon-cutting measures.

They recommended maintaining the current baseline until an Icao review planned for 2022, which is due to review the overall ambition of the Corsia scheme.

Campaigners agreed.

Annie Petsonk, aviation expert at EDF, wrote in a blog that while airlines were desperate to save money in the wake of the pandemic, hastily rewriting the rules for the sector’s emission-curbing scheme “would be penny-wise and future-foolish” and damage public confidence in Corsia.

“If investors believe that governments will make ad hoc rule changes that strand their investments, they won’t make those investments,” she said.

“Re-writing Corsia’s rules would not only give airlines a free pass to pollute for the next half-decade, it would undermine investor confidence in airlines’ climate commitments at a time when regaining investor confidence is crucial to the sector’s survival.”

Aviation’s black box: Non-disclosure agreements, closed doors and rising CO2

A coalition of NGOs including EDF, Carbon Market Watch and WWF, along with businesses and offsetting programmes have urged Icao’s Council not to change the Corsia baseline.

In a letter, they argue that consistency in apply fixed rules objectively and following established processes are crucial for investor confidence, warning against changing the rules seven months before the start of the scheme. “The lack of durable investment would contribute to worsening the climate crisis,” they wrote.

“Corsia is an important mechanism for carbon markets around the world. Changes to elements as fundamental to its design as the baseline should be treated very cautiously.”

The Öko-Institut research compares two recovery scenarios to 2035 with the climate goal airlines agreed to meet before the coronavirus outbreak.

The first is based on Icao’s most optimistic scenario which assumes a 38% decrease in air travel this year compared to pre-Covid19, a fast recovery to 2019 emissions level in the next three years and continued growth thereafter at a rate similar to what was expected before the pandemic.

The second scenario is Icao’s most pessimistic with a 71% drop in air travel in 2020, a slower recovery of more than three years and continued growth from the mid-2020s at a slightly lower rate than expected before the pandemic.

When applying a 2019-2020 baseline, the study shows that a quick recovery scenario would require airlines to purchase slightly more carbon credits than they would have if the pandemic hadn’t happened.

A built-in flexibility provision in the Corsia scheme could, however, reduce the pandemic’s impact by lowering airlines’ offset obligations during the programme’s first voluntary stage between January 2021 and the end of 2023. From 2027, offsetting obligations will become mandatory for all international flights.

Under a slower recovery scenario, airlines wouldn’t need to offset any emissions between 2021 and 2023 and would be required to buy slightly fewer carbon credits than they would have expected to before the outbreak to offset their emissions growth to 2035.

When using Iata’s proposed 2019 baseline, offsetting requirements would disappear in a quick recovery scenario until 2024 and be reduced by 25% by 2035 compared to pre-pandemic trajectory. Under a slower recovery, airlines wouldn’t have to offset emissions until 2027 – reducing mitigation efforts by 75% by 2035.

An analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) published earlier this month found that Iata’s proposal could push the date for airlines to start offsetting their emissions under the Corsia scheme to 2028 or even later – 12 years after the scheme was agreed in 2016.

EDF looked at five possible post-Covid-19 scenarios for the aviation industry which assumed emissions would drop between 20% and 70% this year compared to pre-outbreak projections.

The analysis found that unless aviation’s emissions quickly rebound to levels pre-outbreak or higher by 2021, a 2019-only baseline would effectively postpone Corsia’s start planned in January 2021 for three to five years.

The post Airlines could get free pass on climate for five years under industry proposal appeared first on Climate Home News.

The International Air Transport Association (Iata), which represents the world’s airlines, said it wanted to change the baselines from which traffic growth will be judged in coming years to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

It said it wanted  to “avoid an inappropriate economic burden on the sector” by dropping a planned baseline of average emissions in 2019-2020 that is likely to be much lower than 2019 since many flights are now grounded.

As part of efforts to curb the aviation sector’s growing emissions, countries that are members to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao) – the UN body responsible for aviation – have agreed an “aspirational goal” to make all growth in international flights carbon neutral after 2020, compared to both 2019 and 2020.

Under the existing plan, countries have agreed to use a market-based offset mechanism known as Corsia. But the public health crisis and collapse of air travel means emissions from aviation are anticipated to fall this year.

A lower 2019-2020 baseline than initially expected would toughen airlines’ goals for curbing emissions growth and force companies to buy a lot more offsets to meet the sector’s climate target when traffic rebounds.

In a position paper, Iata said use of the two-year average could result in “significantly higher offsetting requirements and costs for operators further down the line”.

Coronavirus may toughen airlines’ goals for curbing emissions in 2020s

Iata called on the Icao’s council, the organisation’s governing body, to adjust Corsia’s baseline to 2019.

The trade group said using only 2019 would “preserve the environmental benefits” of Corsia as it “would remain more stringent” than the anticipated baseline, had the coronavirus crisis not happened and airlines’ emissions continued to grow in 2020.

It urged the council to make a decision on the issue before the end of June.

Corsia was agreed in 2016 and a review of the scheme was not expected before 2022.

The trade group’s call for Icao to review Corsia’s implementation comes after China – which has one of the world’s fastest growing air passenger markets – also called for the baseline to be adjusted during a meeting of Icao’s council last month.

The move also comes as the aviation industry is urging governments to provide it with economic relief as the pandemic stalled global travel. The US approved a near $60 billion bailout package for the industry last month.

However, adjusting the baseline would require political approval by other Icao members.

Bas Eickhout, a Green MEP and vice-chair of the European Parliament’s environment committee, told Climate Home News Corsia was already “extremely weak” and “won’t bring the aviation sector anywhere near to what is needed to tackle climate change”.

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He added that while a lower baseline will force airlines to buy more credits, the credits were “very cheap” at a “couple of euros per tonne of CO2”.

Under Corsia’s first pilot phase to 2023, airlines will be able to offset their emissions using cheap Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) units.

“I don’t see the need for any adjustments now. I trust the EU won’t either,” Eickhout said, adding that any Corsia review would ideally make the baseline stricter, not weaker.

Corsia is due to come into force in January 2021 but will be voluntary for the first six years. That means only flights between countries which have volunteered to participate in the scheme will have to compensate for the growth in their emissions.

From 2027, offsetting obligations will become mandatory for all international flights.

Iata, which championed Corsia, said it was concerned that countries may be less willing to take part in the voluntary pilot phase if the scheme’s costs were higher than initially forecast.

“Current volunteers may reconsider their earlier decisions in order to safeguard the interest of their national air transport system and its connectivity,” it added.

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But observers of UN aviation talks and campaigners say that while a lower baseline would impose greater offsetting requirements on airlines, built-in flexibility provisions could reduce the pandemic’s impact and limit additional financial costs.

Gilles Dufrasne, policy officer at Carbon Market Watch, told CHN the calculation of the baseline using a two-year average was designed to “avoid the impact of an exceptional year”.

“If things had gone the other way, and 2020 was a year of high traffic, we would not be having this discussion,” he said.

“It’s a non-issue,” said Andrew Murphy, aviation campaigner at the NGO Transport & Environment.

“Corsia was due to have next to no impact financially on airlines…. That airlines may have to buy a few million more offsets, industry wide, across three years, is really of no consequence,” he added, accusing Iata of attempting to “stave off more effective government regulation”.

For Tim Johnson, director of the Aviation Environment Federation, “given the need for Icao and industry to align aviation’s climate goals with the Paris Agreement, retaining 2020 as the baseline could turn out to be a positive step forward for climate ambition”.

The post Airlines urge UN body to ease climate goals for 2020s as traffic collapses appeared first on Climate Home News.

But the virus is also putting the finger on one of the industry’s most difficult challenges: curbing the sector’s increasing greenhouse gas emissions from a baseline of 2019 and 2020.

As part of goals to limit emissions, members of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao), the UN body responsible for aviation, have agreed an “aspirational goal” to make all growth in international flights after 2020 carbon neutral.

Under the plan, countries have agreed to use a market-based offset mechanism known as Corsia to mitigate emissions from flying. Offsets are the primary tool to curb the sector’s emissions with alternative fuels and energy efficiency technologies not developed at scale.

The resolution to establish Corsia adopted in 2016 states that the sector’s growth should be offset compared with a baseline of average total emissions for 2019 and 2020.

But with thousands of flights grounded because of the coronavirus, emissions from aviation are anticipated to fall this year, reducing average emissions over the two years.

If traffic rebounds in coming years, growth from the baseline will be bigger than previously expected, forcing airlines to do more to offset emissions than they would if flights in 2020 were unaffected by coronavirus.

Coronavirus delays global efforts for climate and biodiversity action

Last week, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said it anticipated revenue losses for passenger business of between $63 billion and $113 billion. Airline share prices have also been hit hard by the outbreak, now considered a pandemic by the World Health Organisation.

“Emissions can rebound next year from the coronavirus situation,” Annie Petsonk, aviation expert at Environmental Defense Fund, told Climate Home News, adding “airlines could have more to offset” emissions growth.

On the other hand, “the coronavirus paired with concerns about climate change could mean that people will act more carefully about getting to places in the future,” she said.

Separately, Petsonk wrote in a statement that Icao was likely to come under pressure to “change the fundamentals of Corsia” to ease the financial hardship for airlines.

That could include calls to revise the 2019-20 baseline. “This would be a dangerous mistake because it might trigger a reconvening of the 190+ member countries of Icao’s Assembly to renegotiate the hard-fought 2016 resolution,” she wrote.

From January 2021, only flights between countries which have volunteered to participate in the Corsia system will have to compensate for the growth in their emissions. From 2027, offsetting obligations will become mandatory for all international flights.

Flying accounts for about 2%-3% of global emissions, roughly the same as Germany. Icao’s own forecast anticipates emissions to increase by up to 300% by 2050 under business as usual.

Coronavirus and climate change are two crises that need humanity to unite

On Friday, Icao’s council – a body of 36 countries, including the world’s largest air travel manufacturing and infrastructure nations – is due to start discussing which of 14 carbon offset schemes  airlines will be allowed to use during the first three-year voluntary stage. The meeting is due to last until 20 March.

The decision is key to the integrity of the Corsia scheme in delivering real emissions reductions since it will impact the quality and quantity of offsets that airlines will be able to buy to cancel out the growth of their emissions.

The inclusion of credits from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a carbon market set up under the Kyoto Protocol, is a concern for observers and campaigners, who fear this could flood the market with billions of cheap credits that have not actually achieved emissions cuts.

A 2016 EU-commissioned report found that just 2% of CDM projects were highly likely to ensure “additional” emissions reductions.

The meeting, which is taking place in Icao’s headquarters in Montreal, is closed to observers and the media.

Icao’s Technical Advisory Body (TAB) made a set of recommendations to the council, which have not been made public. Climate Home News understands that at least six of the 14 schemes that applied have been judged eligible to be used under Corsia.

Campaigners have called on Icao to publish the TAB recommendations, warning against the risk of a back room deal and the politicisation of the decision.

Will governments pass the first test of the Paris climate agreement in 2020?

In a letter, the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation warned the council its decisions and “the transparency with which you make these, puts the credibility of aviation’s climate efforts in the global spotlight”.

The start date to accept offset projects could have a key impact on the scheme’s integrity.

An earlier date would allow more credits on the market while a later start date would restrict the market’s liquidity. But research has found that the supply of credits is much higher than the demand forecast.

A study by Ecosystem Marketplace found that starting the crediting period in 2013, would allow for a billion tonnes of carbon credits from the CDM to become available under Corsia.

That is the equivalent of six to ten times airlines’ foreseeable demand, according to Ecosystem Marketplace.

Another option, reportedly being considered by Icao, is to include offsets that were based on emission reduction activities that have taken place between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020.

“A lot of people began developing projects in 2016 explicitly because Corsia was announced that year,” said Steve Zwick of Ecosystem Marketplace.

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An analysis by Carbon Market Watch found that credits currently available on the voluntary markets, which exclude credits from the CDM for instance, are enough to cover Corsia’s demand well into 2025.

“This would leave five years for new projects to start and generate credits for the rest of Corsia,” Gilles Dufrasne, policy officer at Carbon Market Watch said, insisting eligibility should been defined by the quality over quantity of credits.

In its letter, the ICSA has called on Icao’s council members to exclude any offsets from projects which were started before 2020.

ICSA also called on the council to ensure emissions reductions are not double counted by both the airline buying the credits and the host country benefiting from the project.

There is still no international agreement on avoiding double counting emissions reduction after countries failed to agree on the issue at the last UN climate talks in Madrid in December.

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