Nigeria Archives https://www.climatechangenews.com/tag/nigeria/ Climate change news, analysis, commentary, video and podcasts focused on developments in global climate politics Fri, 05 Apr 2024 15:34:55 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 Nigeria’s path to net zero should be fully lined with trees – and fairness https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/04/05/nigerias-path-to-net-zero-should-be-fully-lined-with-trees-and-fairness/ Fri, 05 Apr 2024 13:46:36 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=50486 To meet its pledge of net zero by 2060, Nigeria needs to rein in emissions from deforestation and land use, which equal those from the oil and gas sector

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It must be said: it is impossible to imagine Nigeria’s path to decarbonization without imagining it being fully lined with trees. There is a critical need to address deforestation, transform agricultural practices, and harness nature-based solutions like afforestation and reforestation if Nigeria were serious about reaching net zero by 2060 – a commitment the Nigerian government made at COP26 in Glasgow.

Nigeria is an oil giant in Africa, and unsurprisingly, most of its plans on decarbonization focus on the transition to renewable energy. Previously, Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan had not considered the country’s emissions from the agriculture, forests, and land-use (AFOLU) sector.

However, our new report, which looks at different pathways for Nigeria to reach its net-zero-by-2060 goal, found Nigeria’s AFOLU sector has contributed the largest sectoral emissions at 30%, compared to the oil and gas sector at 29%. So while it is good that Nigeria has set its eyes on transforming the energy sector, it is also true that only in a renewable energy scenario that also transforms the AFOLU sector can Nigeria achieve its commitment of net zero by 2060 which will allow Nigeria’s economy to grow alongside reaching its sustainability goals.

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One of the main drivers of Nigeria’s AFOLU emissions is land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). The last decade has seen relentless deforestation in Nigeria, with Global Forest Watch data revealing that from 2010 to 2019, Nigeria lost 86,700 hectares of tropical forest. Alarming as this may be, without immediate action, an additional 25% of our remaining forests could vanish by 2060. The cause of deforestation is a confluence of different factors, including the population’s lack of access to electricity and increasing poverty rates.

The stark reality is that nearly one in three people in the country lack access to electricity. This energy disparity leads many to rely on traditional, polluting methods for energy generation, such as burning wood. Additionally, less than a quarter of Nigerians have access to “clean cooking,” forcing the majority—primarily women—to rely on inefficient and polluting cookstoves, using wood for fuel.

This reliance on wood for energy generation and fuel is a significant driver of deforestation in Nigeria, and is also a major contributing factor to residential emissions. Improving access to clean cooking is not only pivotal in reducing emissions but also a crucial step towards mitigating deforestation.

According to the World Bank, four in ten Nigerians – or about 80 million people – were living in poverty in 2019. A report by Mongabay revealed that with lack of available jobs, Nigerian forests are being lost to farming and logging. Here, the message is clear: we can only save our forests and be truly on our way to net zero if we address poverty and social inequalities.

Reversing deforestation is not an impossible feat, but it demands a commitment to reforestation efforts – a 2.3% annual reforestation rate – and addressing other root causes of the problem including access to electricity, job creation, and a reduction in poverty.  With reforestation efforts, Nigeria can not only halt the degradation but also bolster its carbon sink capacity, a crucial element in achieving the net-zero goal by 2060.

The commitment to net zero is not just an environmental pledge but a blueprint for economic growth and prosperity that aligns with our broader sustainability goals. It is time for Nigeria to seize the opportunity and lead the charge towards a greener, more resilient future.

Prof. Chukwumerije Okereke is director of the Centre for Climate Change and Development at Alex-Ekwueme Federal University in Ndufu-Alike, Nigeria, and lead of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) in-country team in Nigeria.

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Problems mount for Sahara gas pipeline, leaving Nigerian taxpayers at risk https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/02/14/problems-mount-for-sahara-gas-pipeline-leaving-nigerian-taxpayers-at-risk/ Wed, 14 Feb 2024 14:22:24 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=49985 The Nigerian government is sinking billions into the long-delayed project but economic and security problems are mounting

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For over 20 years, Nigeria has been trying to build a pipeline that would bring gas through the Sahara desert to Algeria and on to customers in Europe.

The hope is that it would raise gas exports and bring money into state coffers. The plan got a boost in 2021 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Europe scrambling for alternative sources of gas in the short-term.

But now, as more problems emerge, experts are questioning the wisdom of investing vast public sums in the project. 

Europe’s gas demand is declining and is likely to be increasingly fulfilled by booming exports of liquified natural gas (LNG) from the US and Qatar.

Meanwhile, theft of gas from pipelines remains an issue as northern Nigeria and Niger, where the pipeline will pass through, have grown more insecure.

The Nigerian government has spent over $1 billion on its section, with plans for a further $1 billion more to be invested. Experts told Climate Home they fear that much of this money could be wasted.

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Stranded asset

Ademola Henry is an independent adviser to the oil and gas industry. He warned that the pipeline could become economically unviable before the end of its expected lifespan.

He warned that if this happens, the government might have to increase borrowing or taxes or cut spending to offset the losses.

Chukwumerije Okereke is a professor of global climate governance and public policy at Bristol University. He said the pipeline “could result in profits and socioeconomic benefits for the people”.

But, he warned that gas thefts and insecurity in Niger “could pose significant challenges”. Niger suffered a military coup last year and the new government has withdrawn from the Economic Organisation of West African States (Ecowas), a regional political union. This “further complicates the situation”, Okereke said.

He said that the government must “deeply consider” any investments in the sector, especially given global commitments to triple renewable energy and Nigeria’s abundant resources like solar.

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Gas glut

The Trans-Saharan pipeline is a joint project between Nigeria, Algeria and Niger. The plan is for a 4,000 km pipeline to ferry up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Nigeria, through Niger, to Algeria where it would connect up with existing pipelines across the Mediterranean to Europe.

With Nigeria and Algeria’s state oil and gas companies taking the lead, it was originally scheduled to open in 2015 but there was no progress on it between 2009 and 2019.

In 2019, the pipeline began to be mentioned in planning documents. The three governments signed an agreement to speed it up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Europe looking for more non-Russian gas. 

At that time, Nigeria’s then oil minister Timpire Sylva told European Union diplomats that Nigeria would like to sell them more gas, which he said would “solve the energy problem in Europe”.

But he was not the only one making that offer. The US in particular has ramped up its investment in export terminals to ship its liquified natural gas to Europe and elsewhere. 

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The International Energy Agency predicts a glut of this gas when this infrastructure is up and running, meaning more competition for Nigerian gas sellers.

At the same time, the IEA predicts that Europe’s demand for gas will keep falling, as the invasion of Ukraine fast-tracked plans to get off fossil fuels.

At the time of publication, only the Nigerian section of the pipeline – known as AKK – is being built. 

Okereke warned: “If the Nigerian government proceeds with its part of the Trans-Saharan project and launches it in July this year, despite uncertainties in other participating countries, there’s a risk of assets being stranded – this could lead to substantial losses for the government, impacting taxpayers”.

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Finance key climate issue for new Nigerian president https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/03/02/finance-key-climate-issue-for-new-nigerian-president/ Thu, 02 Mar 2023 16:57:37 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=48141 Without climate finance from rich nations, "we are not going to comply with your climate change" said Bola Tinubu

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Nigeria has elected Bola Tinubu as its new president following an election in which climate change played only a minor role.

Cutting emissions and the impact of rising global temperatures did not seem to be a priority for Nigerian voters in February, despite last year’s killer floods.

But the issue was not wholly absent. On the campaign trail, Tinubu took a tough line on wealthy nations’ responsibility for the climate crisis and the need for them to finance emissions reductions in developing countries.

Meeting with voters in northern Nigeria in October, Tinubu said that, unless developed countries deliver climate finance to Nigeria, “we are not going to comply with your climate change”.

He described climate change as “a question of how do you prevent a church rat from eating a poisoned holy communion”.

In this metaphor, Nigeria is the rat and the developed countries are those that are poisoning it.

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Developed countries, which are disproportionately responsible for climate change, have failed to deliver the level of climate finance they promised. But developing countries like Nigeria face the worst of its impacts.

Nigerian climate expert professor Chukwumerije Okereke told Climate Home that Tinubu failed to understand that “if the West fails to pay up, Nigeria and other African countries will still be the ones that suffer the worst impacts of climate change”.

Manifesto pledges

In common with other presidential candidates, Tinubu gave out mixed messages about his approach to the energy transition.

He has promised to revive an abandoned coal mining project in Enugu state, increase oil production by tackling vandalism and theft of oil infrastructure, and increase gas production by finishing gas pipelines.

On the other hand, he said Nigeria should “diversify [its] economy away from oil and gas dependence” for economic reasons, particularly as “Western nations are gradually turning away from fossil fuel use”.

“Our history shows that the oil and gas sector is not the answer to our nation’s economic problems,” he wrote in his election manifesto. “However, it remains an important industry, vital to both our short-term economic survival and longer-term prosperity and buoyancy”.

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He pledged to crack down on the practice of buring gas as a by-product of oil production, which is known as flaring.

“Nigeria still flares too much gas causing continued environmental and public health harm,” he wrote.

Tinubu said Nigeria should prioritise using its gas for electricity production domestically while, at the same time, export more gas to the European Union as it seeks alternative buyers to Russia due to the war in Ukraine.

Nigeria’s solar power should also be developed, he said, and electricity should be rolled out to rural areas. Nearly half of Nigerians do not currently have electricity.

Tinubu’s manifesto emphasises the importance of adapting to the “key challenge” of climate change, promising to develop irrigation to tackle the effects of drought.

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Despite killer floods, Nigerian presidential frontrunners dismiss climate change https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/01/25/despite-killer-floods-nigerian-presidential-frontrunners-dismiss-climate-change/ Wed, 25 Jan 2023 17:49:53 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=47946 Polling carried out before the floods showed that two-thirds of Nigerians had not heard of climate change

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Last year, flooding across Nigeria killed over 600 people and displaced hundreds of thousands more.

Although climate change made this event more likely, the country’s leading presidential candidates have so far failed to take the issue seriously on the campaign trail.

A month away from general elections, Nigerian climate expert professor Chukwumerije Okereke told Climate Home that, in spite of the extreme floods last year, climate change was still not a decisive issue in the country’s elections.

The leading candidate in the latest polls, Peter Obi, has dismissed the importance of addressing the climate crisis, while the second place, Bola Tinubu, has supported coal expansion. Atiku Abubakar is polling in third place.

Okereke said that Obi was the only one to even visit flood victims.

Obi plays it down

On Twitter, Obi said the floods were “linked [to] climate change which is real”. In person though, he has dismissed climate change’s importance.


Asked about the issue on a trip to the US in September, Peter Obi said his government “will consider it in whatever we are doing but, quite frankly, I’m going to be aggressive in other areas”.

“You can’t be talking about climate change when people are taking cover from bombs,” he said. “I might be wrong”, he added.

This is a reference to a bombing campaign by Islamist group Boko Haram in the north of Nigeria.

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But a study in the African conflict and peacebuilding review found in 2020 that climate change and environmental degradation has helped Boko Haram recruit and gain support.

And Benjamin Pohl, a researcher from the Adelphi think tank, said that conflict is “making adaptation harder just while climate change is already undermining livelihoods”.

“Both conflict and climate change impacts have huge consequences for human security, so people want and deserve protection against both,” he said.

Bola Tinubu promotes coal

Another leading candidate is former Lagos state governor Bola Tinubu, from current president Muhammadu Buhari’s party. He has promised to revive an abandoned coal mining project in Enugu state. 

Meeting with voters in northern Nigeria, Tinubu said that unless developed countries deliver climate finance “we are not going to comply with your climate change”. 

He described climate change as “a question of how do you prevent a church rat from eating a poisoned holy communion”. In this metaphor, Nigeria is the rat and the developed countries are those that are poisoning it.

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Developed countries, which are disproportionately responsible for climate change, have failed to deliver the level of climate finance they promised. But developing countries like Nigeria face the worst of its impacts. 

According to Okereke, Tinubu failed to understand that “if the West fails to pay up, Nigeria and other African countries will still be the ones that suffer the worst impacts of climate change”.

The third leading candidate Atiku Abubakar has not been questioned on the issue in public. But his campaign said on Facebook that “climate change is real” and that last year’s flooding confirms this.

Manifesto promises

The three candidates’ manifestos promise to reduce environmental pollution in the oil and gas producing Niger Delta region, address the burning off of gas as a waste product by oil companies and transition from fossil fuels to renewables. 

But environmental campaigner Michael Terungwa told Climate Home that their manifesto promises are vague and their answers on the campaign trail suggest climate change is not a priority.

Environmental campaigners protest in Abuja ahead of the election (Photo: Mike Terungwa)

Polling carried out before the floods showed that two-thirds of Nigerians have not heard of climate change. No polling has been carried out since.

For some voters at least though, the issue has since risen up their list of priorities. Ken Eduzor’s home near the river Niger was one of those hit by floods, leaving his family homeless for weeks.

“This has made us realise that we must elect leaders who have plans to tackle flooding and other environmental issues as the election is drawing closer. It’s now about voting leaders who understand how to address climate issues,” he told Climate Home. 

To be elected in the first round, the winning candidate must receive over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states. Obi is currently polling at 23% of the vote, the Premium Times reported.

The first round will take place on February 25.

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Nigeria plans gas-led transition to full energy access and net zero emissions https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/01/nigeria-plans-gas-led-transition-to-full-energy-access-and-net-zero-emissions/ Thu, 01 Sep 2022 11:04:54 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=47059 The government is seeking an initial $10 billion to extend energy access to 90 million Nigerians with solar panels and a doubling of gas power generation this decade

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Nigeria is pitching for $10 billion from international funders to kickstart an energy transition plan. It aims to lift 100 million out of poverty by 2030, bring energy access to the full population and shift to cleaner energy sources.

The plan was published on a purpose-built website and launched by vice president Yemi Osinbajo during an online event last week supported by Sustainable Energy For All. The Rockefeller Foundation and the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet provided funding.

It aims to provide electricity to an estimated 90 million people who lack it by the end of the decade, while putting the country on a path to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

To deliver, Nigeria is relying on gas as a transition fuel. It expects to significantly increase gas consumption during “the decade of gas” declared by president Muhammadu Buhari. It estimates the price tag at $410 billion by 2060.

“For Africa the problem of energy poverty is as important as our climate ambition. The current lack of power hurts livelihoods and destroys the dreams of hundreds of millions of young people,” said vice president Osinbajo.

Climate and energy experts welcomed high level political attention on the issue. Some criticised the focus on gas, while oil and gas workers complained they had not been consulted.

Nigerians able to afford it have been relying on polluting diesel and petrol generators as backup to frequent power outages – something the government wants to end by 2050 by massively expanding solar generation capacity.

By 2060, it would replace all polluting cookstoves with electric or biogas ones and electrify 100% of passenger vehicles.

Gas consumption is set to double in the power sector in the 2020s and significantly increase in the cooking and industrial sectors before nearly phasing out by 2050. Oil and gas refining capacity will massively expand.

Ovigwe Eguegu, a Nigerian policy adviser at consultancy Development Reimagined, praised the package. “I think the energy transition agenda that the vice president is championing is rooted in the realities of the ground,” he said.

But while gas power stations burn cleaner than household diesel generators, they still rely on fossil fuel, which generates greenhouse gas emissions.

“This is a missed opportunity for more ambitious near-term action,” Carley Reynolds, of Climate Analytics, told Climate Home. It “risks Nigeria investing in stranded assets and locking into carbon-intensive infrastructure, when it should be investing in ever-cheaper renewables”.

Vice president Osinbajo said he was seeking an initial $10 billion from rich countries to support the plan, along the lines of the package offered to help South Africa pivot away from coal. Coal is largely absent from Nigeria’s energy mix.

Osinbajo is visiting the US this week to make the pitch.

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Afolabi Olawale, general secretary of the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers, told Climate Home the union hadn’t been properly engaged in discussions about the transition. “You cannot make a plan without talking to those being impacted. We are finding it quite difficult to see how the plan will work,” he said.

By 2030, the government anticipates 140,000 jobs in the oil and power sectors to be cut compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, that number would increase to 260,000, including job losses in the gas sector.

Shifting to cleaner energy sources would overall create more jobs: 340,000 by 2030 and up to 840,000 by 2050, largely in the power, transport and cooking sector. But Olawale said these involved different skills to oil work and no plan had been laid out to retrain those poised to lose their livelihoods.

Chukwumerije Okereke, a professor in environment and development at Reading University, said “reputable” international consultants had provided the “ground thinking” for the plan “but the process hasn’t been very inclusive and open” and broad stakeholder consultation hadn’t taken place.

This “may mean the plan isn’t workable because of a lack of a sense of ownership,” he said.

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Okereke has previously warned that overreliance on international consultants undermines the development of expertise in poor countries. For example, Nigeria still lacks robust monitoring, reporting and valuation systems for greenhouse gas emissions.

Sustainable Energy for All works to deliver affordable, reliable and sustainable energy to all by 2030 and has backed a pro-gas approach in Africa. It has set up an energy transition office under Osinbajo to implement the plan. Consultancy McKinsey also advised on the initiative.

The Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet provided funding to set up the office and for data collection and modelling tools. It told Climate Home that it considers consultations “very important” but doesn’t prescribe the policy or the approach.

“We strongly believe that developing countries must own their transition plans”, said Joseph Nganga, who heads the alliance in Africa.

There is a tension between building local capacity, which takes time, and producing credible energy transition plans that can be supported by the international community and accelerate climate action in the short term, he added.

The alliance and the Rockefeller Foundation are partnering to identify capacity gaps in the region and propose long-term funding arrangements to address them.

SE4All said it was unable to respond to Climate Home’s questions. The Nigerian government didn’t respond to a request for comment.

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Nigerian airlines win jet fuel subsidy after shutdown threat https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/05/12/nigerian-airlines-win-jet-fuel-subsidy-after-shutdown-threat/ Thu, 12 May 2022 15:21:27 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=46389 After domestic airlines threatened to ground their planes, the government agreed to cover some of their rising fuel costs

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Nigerian airline owners have pressured the government into handing over fuel subsidies by threatening to ground their planes over high costs.

On Friday, the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) association wrote an open letter to the government. They warned that the cost of aviation fuel was rising and therefore they must “regrettably” discontinue operations indefinitely from Monday.

After air passengers scrambled to rebook flights before the shutdown, the AON announced on Monday that their strike was cancelled after the government agreed to talks.

The next day, the government agreed to subsidise aviation fuel, ensuring it costs no more than N480 ($1.15) a litre for three months. This is likely to cost Nigerian taxpayers between $1-3 million.

On social media, Nigerians accused the government of spending money on the elite who use air travel while neglecting road and rail transport.

“Another subsidy for the rich!” tweeted Ajiboye Ridwan, a physio from Ibadan. “They couldn’t come up with this sort of intervention for… the education sector”, said Samuel Ajao.

Appearing on Arise News, Allen Onyema, one of the airline owners behind the strike threat claimed air travel was “no longer elitist”. But a one-way flight from Lagos to Abuja costs around $227, nearly twice what the average Nigerian earns in a month.

Across the world and particularly in developing countries, most flying is done by a wealthy minority. In Nigeria in 2021, there were 13 million domestic passengers, many of them the same individuals counted more than once, in a nation of 206 million.

Most Nigerians rely on road and rail to get around the country, which is cleaner but less convenient. Roads are often unpaved and both roads and the rail can be dangerous. Last month, a train carrying 362 passengers was bombed and most of the passengers were killed or kidnapped.

On social media, critics expressed fears the subsidy would become permanent. “Another subsidy scam. Three months that will never end,” said one Twitter user. “Subsidy is addictive. It is like narcotics. When you start, it is difficult to stop,” tweeted another.

After the pandemic hit airlines’ profits, the government provided N4bn ($9m) to 18 domestic airlines. Air Peace CEO Allen Onyema said the government has “helped the growth of aviation more than any other government I can think of”.

He told Arise News: “We don’t pay customs duties, we don’t pay [value added tax] on ticket sales, we don’t pay [value added tax] on imported aircraft, we don’t pay [value added tax] on spares and so many other things they’ve done for us.”

Onyema is wanted in the US over 36 charges related to an alleged $20 million bank fraud.

Nigeria spends around a quarter of its budget subsidising petrol, against the advice of the World Bank. These subsidies mean that, although it is Africa’s biggest oil producer, the recent rise in the global oil price has cost the government money.

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Will Nigeria’s climate change law put the brakes on gas flaring? https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/03/11/will-nigerias-climate-change-law-put-the-brakes-on-gas-flaring/ Fri, 11 Mar 2022 16:31:58 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=46074 Nigeria has promised to end gas flaring by 2030 under its national climate plan but communities are sceptical, given previous unmet deadlines

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She ran her hand over the rough patches on the walls of her house, leaving a pattern of dirt, the tell-tale sign of decades of gas flaring that communities in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta have endured.

Ekaette Robert, who lives in Esit Eket, an oil-rich community in Nigeria’s southern Akwa-Ibom state, has endured great hardships with unbroken optimism in recent years. Over the past seven years, she has experienced the death of her husband, struggled to provide for her five children and now, her livelihood is in danger.

After her husband’s death, Robert started farming cassava to make a living. She rarely makes a profit. Gas flaring – burning off methane as an unwanted byproduct of oil extraction – increases soil temperature, causing a decline in crop yields for Robert and other farmers.

“The yield is very discouraging and it is getting worse by the day. My cassava stems withered and despite applying fertilisers, the problem still persists,” she told Climate Home News. She can only afford to send two of her children to school.

In the nearby village of Ibeno, residents suffer from dwindling fish stocks and excessive heat.

“Rainwater visibly changes colour and is not consumable. We only manage to use it to wash and maybe bathe,” said Daniel Afia, Ibeno’s village head, who retired from the fishing business after a long period of unprofitable endeavours.

Esit Eket and Ibeno are oil producing communities that have endured squalid living conditions, rising poverty levels and loss of livelihood since Frontiers Oil and ExxonMobil started operating there in in 2003 and 1974 respectively.

In the Niger Delta, gas flaring is killing crops, polluting water and damaging human health. The government has promised to end flaring by 2030 under its national climate plan, but communities remain sceptical, given previous failed attempts, a lack of enforcement and necessary technology.

Farmer Okon Ekpobia shows the poor quality of his harvest (Photo: Ndueso Etuk)

Okon Ekpobia, the village head of Idung Akpeudo, in Esit Eket, farms yam and other crops but is often left frustrated with the harvest.

“Crops don’t do well since oil exploration started in this community,” he said. “Both the quality and the yield is nothing to write home about. I can’t sell my produce and make decent profit from it.”

Farmer Victor Isong, expressed worries over the rising heat, which is affecting his family’s health.

“It does not matter whether it is plants, animals or human beings, everything in our environment is suffering,” Isong said. “My wife and children often come down with heat stroke.”

“At the moment, I have a cough and it is common knowledge that it is caused by the polluted water we drink and the gas flare,” he said.

Thomas Esenyi, a farmer in Esik Eset, recalls how scared he was when there was a gas leak from an oil facility owned by Frontiers Oil in November.

“The fault started during routine maintenance. The gas leakage took over the entire community. The company had to tell residents not to cook anything to avoid fire explosion. We were breathing in that gas and many had chest pain and were fatigued after the incident,” he told Climate Home News.

Several studies have highlighted the devastating impacts of gas flaring on Niger Delta communities, including loss of biodiversity and shrinking water bodies.

“Oil exploration activities, especially gas flaring, has resulted in the extinction of many fish species, especially Bonga fish,” Emmanuel Etia, a fisherman in Ibeno, told Climate Home News. “The flared gas and the ensuing heat also affect the breeding cycle of fish causing some species to migrate to a different area.”

Gas flaring in Ibeno, Nigeria (Photo: Ndueso Etuk)

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and the continent’s biggest oil producer. Apart from crude oil reserves, Nigeria has the largest gas reserves in Africa and is among the world’s top 10 gas producers, with estimated reserves of 5.72 trillion cubic metres (tcm).

Since 2012, Nigeria has been among the top seven countries flaring gas. According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Nigeria flared 35.4 tcm of natural gas between 2016 and 2020.

Nigeria to end gas flaring by 2030, under national climate plan

Flaring emits CO2, methane and volatile organic compounds. Methane, which is the primary constituent of fossil gas, contributes significantly to global warming. Although it only stays in the atmosphere for around nine years, methane has a warming impact 84 times that of CO2 over a 20-year period. Oil production was responsible for about 40% of global methane emissions in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Aside from the health and environmental costs, it wastes fuel that could generate revenue if captured and sold. Nigeria lost an estimated $762 million to gas flaring in 2018, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

And there is huge unmet demand for energy. According to the World Bank, 85 million Nigerians do not have access to grid electricity and the lack of reliable power results in economic losses equivalent to 2% of GDP annually.

Children living in Ibeno in the Niger Delta (Photo: Ndueso Etuk)

The country is trying to crack down. Nigeria pledged to end gas flaring by 2030, under an updated climate change plan submitted to the UN last year, and has signed up to the Global Methane Pledge, vowing to cut emissions by 30% by 2030, alongside 110 other countries. The country also signed into law its Climate Change Act (CCA) in 2021.

Nigeria has committed to cut its emissions by 50% by 2050 and achieving net zero emissions by 2060.

Gas flaring undermines Nigeria’s climate goals, Chukwumerije Okereke, a professor in environment and development at Reading University, told Climate Home News.

“Gas flaring is the largest single source of climate pollution in Nigeria contributing about 55 million tonnes of carbon equivalent per annum. It is important to arrest the climate pollution from gas flaring if Nigeria is really interested in tackling climate change,” he said.

Many experts and residents of the Niger Delta are sceptical about the government’s goal, in light of its record. Since the first legislation to regulate the oil industry, the Petroleum Act of 1969, was enacted, 10 deadlines to end gas flaring have been missed.

The country continues to invest in oil and gas exploration and is projected to remain one of Africa’s leading crude oil producers and top three gas producers for the next three years.

Previous attempts to tackle the problem have not succeeded primarily because “of the failure to align political and economic interests to action,” Okereke said. “Some of the major climate action that the government could take to address this problem invites them to go against certain powerful interests.”

Canoes on the shore in Ibeno, Nigeria (Photo: Ndueso Etuk)

Samson Benu, an official at the Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project (NEWMAP), said the country’s infrastructure deficit and lack of finance must be addressed before significant progress can be made. Previous attempts to provide these resources since 2016, through the government’s gas flare commercialisation programme, have been fraught by corruption and lack of requisite technology.

To discourage multinational corporations from flaring gas, the government introduced a penalty of $2 per thousand cubic feet of gas wasted. According to Nigeria’s National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), in 2021 the volume of flaring was equivalent to $521 million in fines, which were mostly unpaid.

Environmental activist Nnimmo Bassey told Climate Home News oil majors would prefer to pay the fine than invest in the needed infrastructure.

“The problem right now is that the Nigerian state is the majority shareholder in all the joint ventures and stopping gas flaring requires that majority shareholders provide the [necessary funds],” he said.

Impact of oil exploration activities at Aieto spill site, Nembe, Nigeria’s Bayelsa state (Photo: Health of Mother Earth Foundation)

Bassey criticised some of the provisions in Nigeria’s Climate Change Act, including the requirement that all companies of 50 or more employees set annual emissions reduction targets. Bassey said companies will end up playing with figures and give fictional solutions due to poor oversight by regulatory agencies.

Tijah Bolton-Akpan, the executive director of the environmental justice organisation Policy Alert, called the law “a feel-good illusion”. He said the law does not align with the country’s overall development agenda, which is still very much reliant on crude oil.

“We have a contradiction. On the one hand, we have emissions reduction targets and on the other hand, an economy that isn’t in a hurry to diversify away from the fossil industry. There is an energy transition blind-spot,” Bolton-Akpan told Climate Home News.

He said that the Act does not include the goal of cleaning up communities affected by oil pollution.

“The least the government can do now is to put in place a framework to clean up their badly damaged environment and enable them to have their lives back,” he said.

Bolton-Akpan’s implementation fears also extend to data collection. Poor disclosure of the carbon intensity of reserves, production processes and outputs by international oil companies operating in Nigeria remains a challenge.

For fisher Etia, the government’s intents are lofty but they amount to nothing if time is not devoted to enforcement.

“Our lives are not a reflection of the amount of resources in our land because of gas flaring. The government should quit talking and get to work,” he told Climate Home News.

Oil companies operating in the Niger Delta and state government officials did not respond to Climate Home News’ requests for comment.

This article is part of a climate justice reporting programme supported by the Climate Justice Resilience Fund.

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Erosion crisis swallows homes and livelihoods in Nigeria https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/01/20/erosion-crisis-swallows-homes-livelihoods-nigeria/ Mon, 20 Jan 2020 06:00:36 +0000 https://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=41109 Climate change is aggravating an erosion crisis in Nigeria that is wrecking buildings, roads and farmland. Damage may cost up to $100 million a year

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Patience Nwankwo sighs as she stares into the yawning hole in the ground near her home in southeastern Nigeria, the exposed red earth like an open wound slicing across the landscape.

“That big hole has swallowed farms, homes, and roads,” Nwankwo said, her voice quavering as she tells how erosion is creating ravines that are eating away at her hometown, Nanka, and neighbouring Agulu and Oko.

“It might swallow everything here if it is not fixed,” she said. Nwankwo, in her mid-70s, is a smallholder farmer whose home is now only 140 metres from the edge of the growing chasm.

The gully erosion in Nanka – one of the largest in Nigeria at 66 metres deep, 2,900 metres long and 349 metres wide, according to a recent study in the American Journal of Geographic Information System – is guzzling red earth from underneath people’s homes and farms, and making residents fear their property will be next.

The Nanka gully started forming around 1850, researchers say, and the regional soil erosion crisis has accelerated alarmingly in recent decades. It now threatens about 6,000 square kilometres or nearly six percent of Nigeria’s land mass, according to the World Bank.

Climate change, which causes more intense downpours, is aggravating erosion by adding to other factors destabilising soils including deforestation, unsustainable farming, mining of sand for brick-making, road construction and poorly designed drains.

Just south of Nanka, the bustling, dusty town of Ekwulobia comes into view. Motorbikes and cars stream around the main roundabout, bursting with roadside stores and hawkers.

Sunday Ezenwosu

A few kilometres away, another deep gully cuts from the highway and extends into Umuchiana community. More than a dozen homes lie near the edge of the ravine which has destroyed at least 50 homes, said Sunday Ezenwosu, a 55-year-old truck driver and local resident.

The gully is creeping closer to residential apartments and also extending into nearby Oko town. Cassava and yam farms near the gully mouth have been abandoned and overgrown by bushes.

“What that gully spoilt, it was too much,” said Samuel Ezenwama, 73, who was displaced three years ago when erosion engulfed his large family compound which housed four other families with some 19 children. The compound also had more than a dozen plantain, bush pear, African breadfruit, and orange trees.

“It was just last year that we finally got land from a relative to build five rooms for each of the families to manage with their children,” he said.

The ravine in Umuchiana is advancing towards homes and felling trees

The Umuchiana ravine

All over the landscape in southeastern Nigeria, gully damage is visible. A deep ravine in Isuikwuato area in Abia state sliced across a highway and another gully near Oraukwu Grammar School in Anambra state submerged the school’s large playground.

As rainfall increases in intensity because of climate change, landslides are becoming more common. In October, a landslide pulled down a home and broke perimeter fence systems in erosion-affected Amuzukwu village near the Abia state capital, Umuahia.

“Most people in this community have abandoned their newly built homes because the big erosion is getting closer and closer to us,” said Ijepka Agwuoge, a father of seven, who lives with his wife near the head of the gully. The walls of Agwuoge’s concrete brick home have cracks already, and his family often flees when there is heavy rainfall.

Benedict Unagwu of the University of Nigeria’s department of social science said soils in the southeastern region, where gullies are most severe, are predominantly sandy and light silt. They have low clay content and organic matter, making the soil fragile and highly vulnerable to corrosive rainfall.

“Climate change affects rainfall intensity and distribution [and an] increase in rainfall intensity will pose serious erosion threat particularly in areas that are prone to erosion,” Unagwu told Climate Home News.

“It is a very serious problem which deserves urgent attention.  Unless soil erosion is given the needed attention, the menace of soil erosion remains inevitable.”

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Alexander Opara, former director of the Institute of Erosion Studies at the Federal University of Technology Owerri, said “high intensity of rainfall as a result of climate change” has caused “accelerated erosion”.

He said the effect is multiplied by poor drainage systems while increased pressure on land for agriculture and development have exposed the soil.

The economic damage brought by gullies, mainly in Nigeria’s southeast, could be up to $100 million every year, with an agricultural yield losses of 30 to 90% in some areas.

And Nigeria’s battle with soil erosion is part of a trend playing out in other parts of the world.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, soil erosion accounts for about 77% of land degradation and threatens about 22% of arable land. Soil erosion has also degraded nearly 70% of Uganda’s land, devastated grazing areas in the Maasai landscape in Tanzania and caused average national soil loss rates of 29 tonnes per hectare annually in Malawi.

Soil erosion is also affecting Europe, with 12 million hectares of land – 7.2% of Europe’s total cropland – impacted and resulting in losses of €1.25 billion ($1.4bn) annually in agricultural productivity and €155 million ($172) in gross domestic product, according to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC).

A gully at Oraukwu

In Nigeria, gullies are now becoming part of political campaigns, with some communities erecting signboards near the highway to draw attention to erosion sites.

“During political campaigns, some politicians pretended to work on the erosion site and made us a lot of promises,” said Sunday Ejike, 37, a resident of Isuikwuato town. But “nothing happened after the general elections” in early 2019.

Since September 2013, Nigeria’s federal government has been receiving support from the World Bank to carry out remedial measures in erosion-affected states under the eight-year, $500-million Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project.

But much more work remains to be done. In October 2019, Nigeria’s minister of state for the environment, Sharon Ikeazor, said federal authorities could declare a state of emergency on erosion.

“The major challenge now is how to stop other areas from being taken away while we fight to recover areas that are severely damaged,” said erosion expert Opara.  The government should hire only “reputable contractors” and ensure reliable environmental impact assessments are done before actual construction work, he argues.

Climate Home News launches African reporting programme

Some communities buffeted by erosion, such as Nanka and Isuikwuato, have been implementing control measures such as planting cashew trees and bamboo and setting up stone barriers to minimize the spread of the gully head.

Soil scientist Unagwu calls for more awareness among communities using adverts, workshops and community gatherings to inform and educate local people about the dangers of erosion and how they can respond, especially by keeping their culverts and canals free of trash.

“Soils around erosion-prone areas should not be disturbed or cultivated,” he advised, adding that there should also be more investment in tree-planting projects.

But for Nwankwo living in Nanka, large-scale government action cannot come swiftly enough.

“The government has to find a way to fix this problem,” she implored.

“All our neighbours living around the gully sites are not here any more, and more people will move as it keeps coming closer to us.”

This article was produced as part of an African reporting programme supported by Future Climate for Africa.

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Boko Haram terrorists thriving on climate crisis: report https://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/04/20/boko-haram-terrorists-thriving-climate-crisis-report/ Wed, 19 Apr 2017 23:01:29 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=33653 As chronic water shortages create instability and violence around Lake Chad, researchers warn climate change feeds terror

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Chronic drought around Lake Chad is reinforcing terrorist group Boko Haram’s stronghold on the region, a report commissioned by the German government has warned.

Some 30 million people across Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon are competing over a shrinking water resource.

As farming and pastoral livelihoods suffer, the legitimacy of state governments has eroded and the region has become a ripe recruiting ground for Islamic extremism and the illicit trades in drugs, arms and people that sustain it.

It is a prime example of how climate change can fuel instability and conflict if the impacts are not addressed, according to the analysis by consultancy Adelphi.

“The report does not say that climate change creates terrorists,” author Lukas Rüttinger told Climate Home. “But climate change changes the context in which these groups operate – it contributes to creating the conditions in which those groups can thrive. We can observe that already.”

The role of global warming was acknowledged in the UN Security Council’s first resolution on conflict in the Lake Chad basin last month.

Nigerian diplomat Anthony Bosah told the council the diminishing resource had worsened the situation for those living under the shadow of Boko Haram and the region’s future was inextricably tied to the shrinking lake.

Excerpt from a UN resolution on the crisis around Lake Chad

Studies cited by Adelphi show that the frequency of rainy days in northeastern Nigeria has decreased 53% since the 1970s, while neighbouring Chad has seen warming at twice the global rate.

Those trends have combined with a doubling of the population to put water resources under unprecedented pressure.

Further drought across the Sahel region of Africa this year only intensifies the struggle for survival. In northern Nigeria, the UN refugee agency estimates seven million people face food insecurity.

The link between Boko Haram and climate change was also made by former US president Barack Obama in 2015.

Aid to the region must be spent in a way that makes communities more resilient, said Rüttinger, and not – for example – creating jobs in unsustainable sectors.

“If you look at Lake Chad now, the international community has woken up to that crisis and is increasing humanitarian funding to the region. It is really important that that funding takes into account the climate perspective. If we spend money on a crisis like that we need to try to think as long-term as we can.”

The German government called for preventative strategies to tackle the root causes that stoke conflict.

Peter Fischer, a senior energy and climate change official at the German Federal Foreign Office, said: “This report confirms once again that is in all our interest to tackle climate change, and to invest in holistic solutions to conflict, starting now. Instability and turbulence are rising around the world and climate change is helping to drive them. We must pay attention to the early stages of the conflict-cycle, anticipate risks arising from climate change and take preventive measures.”

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Africa’s “buyer’s remorse” over Paris climate deal https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/03/africas-buyers-remorse-over-paris-climate-deal/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/03/africas-buyers-remorse-over-paris-climate-deal/#comments Thu, 03 Nov 2016 09:52:38 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=31811 Some African governments are regretting the ambition of emissions targets submitted towards the Paris Agreement, say advisers

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When Chad announced in September 2015 it aimed to slash its greenhouse gas emissions 71% by 2030, the country was hailed as a climate leader.

The government of the arid, oil producing state – long ravaged by warfare – even offered to slash carbon pollution 18% from business-as-usual in the event it received no external funding or support.

The generous gesture was seen by many observers as proof of a new age of African climate ambition, one of the 190 pledges that underpinned the historic Paris Agreement.

Ten months on, the country’s climate envoy tells Climate Home that Chad was pressured into this ambitious contribution and it will not be able to deliver.

“I personally think that the very ambitious INDC [climate plan] like ours is not achievable and it need to be reviewed,” says Hamid Abakar Souleymane, who also represents Chad at the UN’s climate science panel.

“We have been rushed by other countries, and we have elaborated a quick INDC, we did not gather all the data to reflect our national and achievable contribution, which normally [should] take into account sustainable development.”

Chad may join the nearly 100 countries to ratify the Paris Agreement, says Souleymane, on the condition it can change its contribution. “This could give us a chance to revise into an achievable goal,” he says.

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Chad is not alone in its fears it may have committed to the impossible. The Africa Group – a UN negotiating alliance – has 54 members. Just 15 have ratified the Paris deal.

Some of those who have not formally joined the UN pact may seek permission to amend or revise their climate plans, says Seth Osafo, who advises the Africa Group on legal matters at the UN.

“I think that is likely to be the case for those who are not happy with the target,” he tells Climate Home.

As Climate Home revealed earlier this year, Western governments and multilateral funds directed at least US$26 million to help developing countries prepare their “intended nationally determined contributions”.

In some cases, the support was gratefully received. In others, there was resentment at the way consultants from the developed world steered a supposedly nationally-owned process.

Revealed: The millions spent to bank success at Paris climate talks

Nigeria, Tanzania and Ethiopia are among countries with ambitious carbon reduction goals that may have significant challenges meeting their pre-Paris pledges, says Chukwumerije Okereke.

A professor in environment and development at Reading University, Okereke has advised a number of African governments on climate and energy policy.

“I detect a sense of skepticism and buyer’s remorse from a number of African countries, who are asking: hang on, what have we committed to?” he tells Climate Home.

“The process through which many of these INDCs were written was seriously fraught with error, with minimal stakeholder consultation, data gathering and analysis…  It is understandable that France wanted to get an agreement, but I fear the success in Paris may have come at the expense of African countries.”

Okereke’s fear is similar to that of Souleymane’s: that the process leading to the development of the plans for African countries was not based on rigorous assessments, and was in some cases flawed.

He cites Nigeria’s target of 45% GHG cuts with external support and 25% without as one of the more unrealistic government aspirations ahead of Paris.

The country’s electricity grid has a capacity of less than 5,000 megawatts, but its 173 million citizens need generation sources ten times that.

“Where is that cut going to come from? This is a country that needs to grow and is fossil fuel based. Nobody has given me any analysis,” says Okereke.

Crude politics: Reforming Nigeria’s oil sector

Africa’s plight in the face of ever-increasing climate threats is one of the priorities highlighted by the Moroccan government ahead of the UN’s Marrakech climate summit, which starts on 7 November.

A supercharged El Nino wreaked havoc across the continent through 2016, leading to erratic rainfall in the South and East, weak harvests and increased migration.

Already some pundits talk of the Sahel region as home to the world’s first modern climate change conflict zone: as rivers dry up and food becomes scarce frustrations inevitably grow.

Yet funding to help the continent adapt to changing weather patterns and invest in cleaner energy sources is comparatively low compared to other regions, says the Climate Policy Initiative, which tracks funding flows on an annual basis.

The latest paper from the Venice-based NGO suggests $11 billion was spent in sub-Saharan Africa between 2013-2014, compared to $15bn in South Asia and $26bn in Latin America.

A new UN-backed Green Fund was supposed to drive more support to Africa, but despite receiving $10 billion of funds from rich nations has struggled to find enough suitable projects.

Climate wars: is the Sahel the first battle zone?

A major problem is the huge level of climate ambition that the Paris deal unleashed, argues Andrew Steer, a former World Bank official who heads up the World Resources Institute.

“This is difficult stuff. Most countries who committed to Paris and INDCs didn’t really have a plan – they had aspirations and targets. That’s different to a plan… as part of the pivot they will have serious discussions.

“Has sub-Saharan Africa received enough support? No. We need much more. It’s a tribute to those governments that they said: count us in.”

Next week, the WRI will launch a programme with France, Germany and Morocco to help developing countries craft suitable carbon cutting plans.

The hope is that if African governments can deliver clear energy investment strategies, it will then be easier to attract the billions required to build critical infrastructure.

“If you want to move from traditional ways of urban design or energy that requires a lot of money and that needs to start now,” says Steer.

Climate finance in 2016: 4 reports you need to read

Generally most African governments see the Paris Agreement as a “good deal” and recognise how it could protect their populations from future extreme weather, says Osafo.

But there is a widespread belief that support to help the continent prepare for erratic rains and the drought and famine that can result has not been forthcoming.

“I don’t think we have succeeded in how adaptation is going to be funded. It’s a priority and in areas like agriculture there is an urgent need for crop diversification, water irrigation,” he says.

“More resources have always been called for by developing countries to develop further and polish the NDCs in order to broaden their scope and plan on how to mainstream them in development processes,” says Washington Zhakata, head of Zimbabwe’s climate management department.

He sees COP22 in Marrakech as a chance to “debate issues of implementation”, envoy shorthand for securing more support.

Still, as it stands the status quo should not be accepted, says Okereke, who argues the Paris Agreement in its current form is an “equity and justice coup against developing countries”.

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Crude politics: Reforming Nigeria’s oil sector https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/06/15/crude-politics-reforming-nigerias-oil-sector/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/06/15/crude-politics-reforming-nigerias-oil-sector/#respond Olufolahan Osunmuyiwa]]> Wed, 15 Jun 2016 02:00:40 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=30259 A new round of reforms will address fraud, corruption and cronyism in the oil import sector, but they require careful handling by central government

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On 9 May, the Nigerian government raised the price of petrol by 67%, from 87 to 145 naira per litre (US$0.43 to 0.73) and announced the deregulation of the oil sector.

The move came after nearly six months of unending fuel scarcity, long queues, high-priced black market sales, and illegal re-exports.

The government argued that liberalizing the oil sector will promote competition, align prices with global market trends and, perhaps most important, provide an opportunity for economic diversification.

Nigeria has vast oil and gas resources, and for the past five decades it has relied heavily on oil and gas production to drive economic growth, neglecting other sectors and energy sources. The oil sector accounts for 13% of GDP and 70% of government revenue.

Thus, as global oil prices plummeted, Nigeria’s budget deficits grew, to an estimated ₦2.2 trillion (US$10 billion, or 2.16% of GDP). With the economy in crisis and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others pushing for reforms, the government was under strong pressure to act.

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The petrol price hike is expected to save about ₦16.4 billion (US$82 million) per month in subsidies to distributors, which will be redirected towards infrastructure development. But can the reforms last, and can they drive the economic transformation that Nigeria needs?

Nigeria currently produces about 2.5 million barrels per day of oil, and it has a crude reserve of 37.1 billion barrels. Yet due to low refining capacity (as low as 20% run rates), Nigeria has to import about 80% of the petroleum products used in the country. To keep fuels affordable, the government has capped and subsidized petrol and diesel prices for many years.

In January 2012, former President Goodluck Jonathan tried to end the subsidies and liberalize the market, citing budgetary concerns. Fuel subsidies were said to account for a third of government spending at the time, about ₦1.4 trillion. Yet the effort met with strong resistance, leading to a halt in economic activities for over a week and an estimated loss of ₦320 billion.

If successful, the new round of reforms will address fraud, corruption and cronyism in the oil import sector (including non-existing oil marketers or companies receiving subsidies). They could also help reduce the oil cartels’ hold on the government and on the citizens at large.

Report: Unions threaten riots, strikes as Nigeria ditches oil subsidy

However, the new fuel regime still lacks a robust institutional structure to support and uphold the policy process. Its design and implementation have also been fraught with secrecy; hence the dissemination of information to citizens has been poorly organized. Public opinion is mixed.

By taking this approach, the government has missed the opportunity to present its green agenda as an alternative to Nigeria’s oil problems. In contrast, when Indonesia became a net oil importer in 2005, the government seized the political moment and presented its decision to shift towards the deployment of renewable energy to meet its energy needs.

Existing institutions such as the Ministry of Petroleum Resources could potentially fill the gap, but they lack credibility. The ministry is tainted by corruption scandals, has poorly communicated past fuel reform policies on fuel reforms, and cannot effectively manage policies on renewable energy, as it is largely designed to support fossil fuels.

Another institution that readily comes to mind is the Renewable Energy Division of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), a sub-division mandated to develop Nigeria’s biofuels sector. However, the NNPC has also been stifled by the political influence of fossil fuel advocates.

Report: Nigeria budget signals shift away from oil dependence

The best approach is to establish an independent, transparent institution, created through a legislative act and specifically tasked with regulatory, fiscal, civic and developmental aspects of the hybrid oil and renewables sector.

First, this institution would be involved in the adjustment of oil prices based on international market trends and education of citizens prior to price adjustments.

It could use mass and social media, and hold town-hall meetings as well as parliamentary debates (for a similar institutional example, see Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority or Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy).

Second, this institution would coordinate the creation of renewable energy mandates for oil corporations and the government. This could include drafting a new law to ensure that at least 20% of oil revenues earned by the government are invested as a capital base for renewable energy projects.

Also as part of this law, all operating oil companies (producers and refiners) within Nigeria could be mandated to create a subsidiary on biofuels and divert 20% of their assets towards biofuel activities (for a similar example, see the EU/Netherlands biofuels blending mandates for oil companies).

Diversified, sustainable

In addition, this new institution would need to oversee and ensure transparency in the use of the subsidy reinvestment funds, which would be mainly accessible to oil companies with subsidiaries in the renewable energy sector. This approach could ensure that oil corporations become less resistant or skeptical towards the development of renewables.

Finally, in order to successfully reform Nigeria’s oil sector, catalyse economic diversification, and boost demand for renewable energy, we need an institutional and policy environment that positions both fossil fuel and green advocates as winners.

Unlike the existing fossil fuel regime, the new regime also needs to be socially and politically inclusive. This means ensuring the development of communities where resources are mined, promoting low carbon sources of energy, and removing incentives for rent-seeking and corruption in the oil sector.

Several prominent Nigerians have argued that the global oil market crash could be a “blessing” for the country – a chance to move to a more diversified, more sustainable economy that benefits the entire population, not just a few.

Last month’s reforms could be the beginning of a crucial transformation needed in Nigeria’s energy sector, but only if it gets a robust institutional support.

Olufolahan Osunmuyiwa is a PhD researcher at the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

This post is part of a series written for “The Politics of Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Their Reform“, a workshop co-hosted by Lund University and the Stockholm Environment Institute at SEI in Stockholm on 16–17 June.

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Nigeria to ratify Paris Agreement in September https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/06/07/nigeria-to-ratify-paris-agreement-in-september/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/06/07/nigeria-to-ratify-paris-agreement-in-september/#respond Tue, 07 Jun 2016 14:59:02 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=30175 Move by sub-Saharan Africa's largest economy increases chance the UN climate pact could enter into force this year

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African oil-giant Nigeria is set to formally join the Paris climate change agreement in September, bringing the deal’s entry into force a step closer.

Environment minister Amina Mohammed set out the government’s timeline at a ministerial breakfast meeting on Sunday, national news site Today reported.

For the Paris Agreement to go live, 55 countries responsible for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions need to ratify.

The largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria accounts for 0.57% of emissions, according to a UN inventory.

To date, 17 small states have completed the formalities, with islands vulnerable to rising seas leading the charge.

Science and policy institute Climate Analytics expects another 25 to do so by the end of 2016, including Nigeria, based on national statements or government sources.

Collectively, they produce 52.34% of emissions, coming close to the threshold.

Report: Nigeria budget signals shift away from oil dependence
Effort sharing: EU climate negotiations set to strain unity

The EU (12.10%) is the highest emitter not on the list. Most analysts have assumed the bloc will not ratify until internal effort sharing discussions are complete, which could be late 2017.

But many of the 28 member states are willing to move sooner, according to Brussels sources. Hungary has already got parliamentary approval and France’s senate votes on a ratification bill tomorrow.

Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Denmark and Cyprus are reportedly inclined to follow this year. The European Commission will set out its strategy on Friday.

“It is promising to see that both the European Commission and a few EU countries have indicated they will speed up the ratification process,” said Wendel Trio, director of Climate Action Network Europe.

“Swift ratification is crucial to maintain the momentum of COP21, but it is not going to be enough to make the Paris Agreement a reality. It will remain an empty promise, unless it leads to an increase of climate action at home.”

India (4.1%) is also expected to reveal plans to ratify in 2016, as prime minister Narendra Modi visits the US this week.

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Unions threaten riots, strikes as Nigeria ditches oil subsidy https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/05/18/unions-threaten-riots-strikes-as-nigeria-ditches-oil-subsidy/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/05/18/unions-threaten-riots-strikes-as-nigeria-ditches-oil-subsidy/#respond Wed, 18 May 2016 13:42:36 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=29968 Government says subsidy cut is vital to rebalance budget, but opposition brand decision "evil" and a "rigmarole"

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Nigerian trade unions have promised an “indefinite strike” after the government slashed subsidies for domestic petrol, leading to a 67% spike in prices.

On Wednesday, members of the Nigeria Labour Congress blocked main roads across Lagos and entry to the airport, despite a Tuesday court order judging any strike illegal.

In statement on president Mohammed Buhari’s Facebook page, his deputy Yemi Osinbajo said the government could not afford to continue supply oil at low prices due to an economic crisis.

“This is… not a subsidy removal issue but a foreign exchange problem, in the face of dwindling earnings,” he wrote, citing a dip in April’s oil revenue to US$550 million.

https://twitter.com/NGRWailers/status/732880917899968513

The protests come at a critical time for sub-Saharan Africa’s powerhouse, which saw growth slow to 2.8% in 2015, its lowest rate since 1999, largely due to falling oil prices.

Despite being a major oil producer, the country only has the capacity to refine 40% of its domestic requirements, meaning it has been paying over $200 million a month to import liquid fuels.

This year, production in the south has fallen 40% due to militant attacks

“The real issue is not a removal of subsidy. At $40 a barrel there isn’t much of a subsidy to remove,” Osinbajo said.

The World Bank and IMF have long called on developing countries to eliminate consumer fuel subsidies, arguing they tilt the market against clean energy.

In recent years, Morocco and Egypt have slashed subsidies, but a 2012 attempt by the government in Abuja to tackle the issue left 10 dead after widespread protests.

Report: Nigeria budget signals shift away from oil dependence
Analysis: What has happened to Nigeria’s climate pledge?

This time, opposition leaders have reacted to price rises with similar hostility. Frederick Fasehun, chair of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), called the move “reckless, irresponsible and evil”.

“In some countries, it is enough to cause a social upheaval. In a Parliamentary system, it is enough reason to pass a vote-of-no-confidence on the government,” he said.

Okechukwu Obioha, president of the Njiko Igbo Forum (NIF), accused the government of “fraud and rigmarole”.

Others took a more conciliatory view. Ogbuehi Dikefrom the Inter-Party Advisory Council of Nigeria (IPAC) said the cut would save “billions of naira” and could make the economy more sustainable.

“IPAC notes and regrets the pain the removal of subsidy may cause Nigerians who are able to obtain fuel at its official price,” he said.

“However, in the long term, removal of subsidy is the right thing to do. Before now, subsidy had been the bane of diesel supply but since it was removed, diesel has been available everywhere at a stable price.”

Since coming to power in 2014, the Buhari government has made tackling corruption and cutting oil dependency priorities.

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Nigeria budget signals shift away from oil dependence https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/12/22/nigeria-budget-signals-shift-away-from-oil-dependence/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/12/22/nigeria-budget-signals-shift-away-from-oil-dependence/#respond Tue, 22 Dec 2015 13:11:36 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=27595 NEWS: African oil exporter must rebalance its economy, president Muhammadu Buhari argues in 2016 budget speech

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African oil exporter must rebalance its economy, president Muhammadu Buhari argues in 2016 budget speech

General Muhammadu Buhari, president of Nigeria (Pic: Chatham House/Flickr)

General Muhammadu Buhari, president of Nigeria (Pic: Chatham House/Flickr)

By Megan Darby

Africa’s largest economy is seeking to diversify away from oil into mining and other sectors, amid low fuel prices and environmental concerns.

That was the message from Muhammadu Buhari, president of Nigeria, on Wednesday as he presented his first budget since taking office in May.

“The Nigerian economy needs to move away from dependency on oil,” President Buhari told lawmakers in the National Assembly in capital Abuja. “Our growth must be inclusive.”

With 180 million inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous member of oil cartel OPEC. It was Africa’s biggest oil producer until it fell behind Angola in November.

Report: Nigeria will be ‘forceful’ climate advocate, says Buhari

But that source of revenue took a beating this year as oil prices slumped, falling to an 11-year low on Monday. The commodity is forecast to stay depressed throughout 2016. And a global climate pact struck in Paris this month implies all but eliminating fossil fuel use in the longer term.

Meanwhile, the industry has an uneasy relationship with citizens. Shell could have to pay multi-billion dollar damages to Nigerian farmers for the impact of oil spills in the Niger delta, following a Dutch court ruling last week.

Despite being close to the source of crude, Nigerians have faced shortages in the refined product, with long queues at petrol stations.

Buhari apologised for fuel scarcity in his budget statement, proposing to stimulate the economy by focusing on infrastructure investment, while fighting corruption.

He tiptoed around the controversial issue of petrol and diesel subsidies, worth around 1 trillion naira (US$5 billion) a year over the past five years. The regulator had been ordered to “adjust its pricing template”, he said, but lower input costs and efficiency savings were expected to keep the retail price at its current level of N87 ($0.44) a litre.

Subsidy reform is among several initiatives proposed in Nigeria’s climate pledge submitted last month towards a UN deal. An end to gas flaring by 2030 and 13GW of off-grid solar panels were others.

Report: Global warming raises tensions in Boko Haram region

The country’s greenhouse gas emissions are forecast to more than double by 2030 under business as usual, as the population and economy grow. It targeted a 20% cut from that baseline with state cash and up to 45% with international support.

More Nigerians (65%) are “very concerned” about climate change than about global economic instability (48%), the submission noted, citing Pew Research Center.

Crop yields, water supplies and productive coastal land are under threat as the planet warms, it outlined.

This article has been updated to reflect that Nigeria lost the title of Africa’s largest oil producer to Angola last month

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What has happened to Nigeria’s climate pledge? https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/11/04/what-has-happened-to-nigerias-climate-pledge/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/11/04/what-has-happened-to-nigerias-climate-pledge/#respond Wed, 04 Nov 2015 13:58:29 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=25164 ANALYSIS: President Buhari has yet to sign off submission of Africa's most populous country to a UN Paris deal, to the frustration of civil society

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President Buhari has yet to sign off submission of Africa’s most populous country to a UN Paris deal, to the frustration of civil society

(Pic: flickr/jbdodane)

(Pic: flickr/jbdodane)

By Megan Darby

At the UN General Assembly in September, President Muhammadu Buhari said Nigeria was “strongly committed” to a global deal on climate change.

Backed by EU funding, consultants have drawn up a plan to green Africa’s biggest oil producer and protect its 170 million citizens from shifting weather patterns.

But more than a month after the deadline for national submissions to a Paris climate accord, that pledge has not made it to the UN’s inbox. What gives?

It is a question exercising Jibo Nura, a climate researcher and campaigner, who wrote to top federal officials this week demanding answers.

“I didn’t see any will, any effort from the federal ministry of the environment or the presidency,” he tells Climate Home. So far, 155 countries have entered pledges, including many African states. Nura asked: “Why is Nigeria lagging behind?”

Hall of shame: Who hasn’t pledged yet to UN climate pact?

That tardiness also drew comment from Stephane Gompertz, French climate diplomat for the region, last month.

“It is a pity,” he told West African news service Climate Reporters in Abuja. “Nigeria is a country which has great potential in renewable energies. So, Nigeria should set an example for other countries.”

One reason is not exclusive to climate change: five months after taking office, President Buhari has yet to appoint any ministers. The senate president on Tuesday presented a list of 36 candidates screened by the National Assembly, to be allocated portfolios.

That means he has no trusted colleagues to advise him on a range of issues, not least what emissions reduction target to sign off.

Atayi Babs, editor of Climate Reporters, is not optimistic about the quality of advice he can expect.

“By the look of things, the president will not have anybody who is environmentally sound around him,” he says.

“In the list of ministers he has released, there is no-one who has been involved in the climate change process.”

Report: Ethiopia submits carbon cutting plan for UN climate deal

Ricardo, a multinational consultancy founded in the UK, has provided technical analysis to several developing countries, including Nigeria.

Along with domestic experts, it drafted options that were forwarded to the president in September. At the same time, they gave a presentation to civil society groups. None were allowed to take a copy of the document.

Contacts at Ricardo and Nigeria’s environment ministry declined to comment on either the content of the climate pledge or process for developing it.

While some NGOs were unhappy to see foreign involvement in the national strategy, they broadly agreed the proposed targets were “ambitious and realistic,” says Babs. “What they were wary of was: is the government ready to commit?”

Oil and gas provides around 35% of Nigeria’s GDP, according to OPEC, making it a strategically important sector.

It is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, with creaking infrastructure in the Niger delta notorious for oil spills and gas flaring.

Report: Global warming raises tensions in Boko Haram region

On Tuesday, Amnesty International and the Centre for Environment, Human Rights and Development singled out Shell for failing to clean up its act. The impact of contamination on fishing and farming livelihoods make it a human rights issue.

The government turns a blind eye, says Babs: “Even when there are laws punishing [oil companies] for every spill, for every flare, they [officials] really don’t apply those laws.”

There are more signs of progress on clean energy, with regulators requiring electricity distributors to get 50% from renewable sources.

Meanwhile, climate change is worsening water scarcity in the country’s northeast, contributing to conflict and the rise of terrorist group Boko Haram.

Nura would like to see Nigeria target emissions cuts of 35% from business as usual by 2025 and 40% by 2030.

He is also looking forward to a national climate rally on 30 November: “A lot of people will come out and march and show their grievances at Nigeria’s lack of commitment to the UN climate change agreement.”

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Nigeria will be ‘forceful’ climate advocate, says Buhari https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/04/02/nigeria-will-be-forceful-climate-advocate-says-buhari/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/04/02/nigeria-will-be-forceful-climate-advocate-says-buhari/#comments Thu, 02 Apr 2015 10:06:26 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=21730 NEWS: Incoming leader promises more constructive approach to "matters of collective concern" ahead of Paris climate pact

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Incoming president promises more constructive approach to “matters of collective concern” ahead of Paris climate pact

General Muhammadu Buhari, president-elect, Nigeria (Pic: Chatham House/Flickr)

General Muhammadu Buhari, president-elect, Nigeria (Pic: Chatham House/Flickr)

By Ed King

Nigeria’s president elect has promised to make addressing global warming a priority when he assumes power in June.

In his acceptance speech on Wednesday, General Muhammadu Buhari said his government would play a more active role in diplomatic efforts to craft a global response to climate change.

“I assure all foreign governments that Nigeria will become a more forceful and constructive player in the global fight against terrorism and in other matters of collective concern, such as the fight against drugs, climate change, financial fraud, communicable diseases and other issues requiring global response,” he said.

Buhari replaces president Goodluck Jonathan on May 29, in what is set to be the country’s first peaceful political transition since gaining independence in 1963.

The country’s stance on climate change is deemed critical, given it is Africa’s largest economy, the continent’s top oil producer and among the world’s largest suppliers of natural gas.

Oil is a dominant source of export revenues, but despite a GDP of over US$ 500 billion, an estimated 62% of its 170 million citizens live below the poverty line.

Its fossil fuel industry is dominated by foreign operators: Shell, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron and Total have exploration contracts stretching into the 2020s.

Political lead

Christian Aid’s climate change advisor Mohamed Adow welcomed Buhari’s comments, calling the country Africa’s “most important” when it came to climate diplomacy.

Traditionally he said Nigeria, along with Kenya and South Africa has called the shots within the 54-strong Africa Group at UN climate meetings,

“For a head of state to say that in his first speech points to the direction Africa is taking,” Adow said.

“This is a recognition of responsibility – it’s a huge political signal that indicates commitment at the highest level.”

Coastal erosion, severe flooding and the encroachment of the desert in the north of the country are expected to intensify across West Africa as global temperatures rise, a UN panel of scientists reported in 2014.

Local observers have told RTCC the rise of Islamist terror group Boko Haram is partly a result of growing climate impacts, with the depletion of Lake Chad sowing seeds of conflict.

A 2014 study by risk analyst firm Maplecroft rated Nigeria at “high risk” from climate change.

“Widespread drought and food insecurity helped create the socio-economic conditions that led to the emergence of Boko Haram and the violent insurgency in the North East of the country,” the study said.

The country is expected to deliver its commitment to a proposed UN climate change deal once the new government is in office. In 2010 Nigeria was responsible for 0.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Gabon became the first African state to submit its emissions reduction pledge on Wednesday, with a target of 50% cuts below its 2000 levels by 2025.

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Global warming raises tensions in Boko Haram region https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/01/16/global-warming-raises-tensions-in-boko-haram-region/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/01/16/global-warming-raises-tensions-in-boko-haram-region/#respond Fri, 16 Jan 2015 09:35:14 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=20591 NEWS: Climate change makes Lake Chad fertile territory for extremism, experts say after Boko Haram massacre of up to 2,000 people

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Climate change makes Lake Chad fertile territory for extremism, experts say after Boko Haram massacre of up to 2,000 people

A Boko Haram flag on the riverbank between Nigeria and Niger (Pic: Flickr/European Commission DG ECHO)

A Boko Haram flag on the riverbank between Nigeria and Niger (Pic: Flickr/European Commission DG ECHO)

By Megan Darby

As more evidence of destruction wrought by Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria emerged on Thursday, experts highlighted the role of climate change in fomenting extremism.

Satellite images obtained by Amnesty International showed 3,700 buildings had been destroyed in the towns of Baga and Doron Baga. That reinforced estimates that up to 2,000 people had been killed in attacks by the extremist group. The Nigerian government claimed the death toll was just 150.

Meanwhile, slumping oil prices raise the threat of further instability in the country, which gets around three quarters of its revenue from oil exports.

Luc Gnacadja, former UN desertification chief and Benin environment minister, told RTCC the depletion of Lake Chad had helped create the conditions for conflict.

“From outside, we can easily read it as just a religious fight, when actually it is about access to vital resources,” he said.

In much of northern Nigeria, Muslim herders are in competition with Christian farmers for dwindling water supplies.

Boko Haram’s stated goal is to create an Islamic state – although its victims have included Muslims as well as Christians.

“The so-called religious fight is a layer above those conflicts around resources,” said Gnacadja. “It is not just about Boko Haram, but in the Sahel belt you will see it is almost the same challenge in Mali and in Sudan.”

Source: NASA

Satellite images show Lake Chad drying up (Source: NASA)

NASA images show how Lake Chad, which straddles Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad, has dried up over the past few decades.

Once among the largest lakes in Africa, the World Bank reported last year it had shrunk 90% since the 1960s.

That has been attributed to a mix of climate change and heightened demand for water in the Chad basin, which supports some 30 million people.

Local observers told RTCC this had devastated the region’s economy, making it easier for Boko Haram to recruit.

Emman Shehu, Nigerian journalist and Bring Back Our Girls campaigner, said: “Lake Chad has been an important means of survival for the people in that region.

“Over the years, for various reasons which we can generalise as climate change, Lake Chad has shrunk considerably. There is no land to farm, no fish for the fisherman, no grazing terrain for the herdsmen. Of course, there is a multiplier effect.

“That has created quite a massive pool of unemployed people, especially the youth, and it has become very easy for Boko Haram therefore to have a recruitment ground.”

Wastelands

Jibo Nura, head of the African Climate Change Research Centre, said the region had seen changes in the monsoon winds that usually brought rain. Combined with overgrazing and overuse of irrigation, these climatic changes had dried up the lake.

“When there’s no water to irrigate the farm, people naturally become economically and socially frustrated,” he said.

Atayi Babs, another journalist and member of the pan-African media alliance for climate change, said water stress had created “wastelands of lack, deprivation and employment”.

He added: “Men who were or would have been gainfully employed as farmers, fishermen, fish sellers and pastoralists have now been conscripted into Boko Haram with many of them participating in the deadly night raids of the terrorist group.”

A prescient article by the UN in 2012 observed tensions rising in communities around Lake Chad, as resources grew scarcer. It noted Doron Baga, one of the towns ravaged by Boko Haram, used to be lakeside but had seen the waters retreat by 20 kilometres.

Those tensions came to the world’s attention last April when Boko Haram, which translates as “Western education is forbidden”, kidnapped more than 200 schoolgirls. Despite the viral popularity of the Bring Back Our Girls campaign, nearly all are still missing.

Satellite impages of Doron Baga taken on 2 and 7 January show thousands of buildings were razed (Source: Amnesty International)

Satellite impages of Doron Baga taken on 2 and 7 January show thousands of buildings were razed (Source: Amnesty International)

Amnesty International estimates Boko Haram killed more than 4,000 civilians in 2014. Satellite images and eyewitness testimony suggest its attacks on Baga and Doron Baga earlier this month were the largest and deadliest yet.

“They killed so many people,” a man in his fifties told Amnesty. “I saw maybe around 100 killed at that time in Baga. I ran to the bush. As we were running, they were shooting and killing.”

Médecins sans Frontières reported on 14 January that 5,000 survivors of the attack on Baga are staying in a camp in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state. The UN refugee agency (UNHRC) reported on 9 January that some 7,300 Nigerian refugees had arrived in western Chad.

Such conflicts are not inevitable, said Gnadacja, who has founded think-tank GPS-Dev to focus on grassroots sustainability projects.

Across the border in Niger, he said communities have restored up to 5 million hectares of degraded land. So far, Boko Haram has not gained such a foothold in that area.

But for northeastern Nigeria, Boko Haram’s continued presence will make it challenging to do the same, Gnadacja warned.

“If you don’t have a minimum of security of access to the land, I don’t see how you can invest – because restoration is about investment in the land. If you want to change it, peace will be a prerequisite.”

Political vacuum

The latest wave of violence comes as Nigeria prepares for presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 February.

President Goodluck Jonathan has been accused of a muted response to the slaughter. While he was quick to express solidarity with the 17 victims of a terrorist attacks in Paris, critics said he was slower to condemn or act on domestic terrorism.

At the same time, the falling oil price has hit government revenues, further destabilising the economy. The oil exporting country has revised its budgets twice in recent months, first to based on a forecast price of US$78 a barrel, then US$65. The price fell below US$50 this week.

This trend is “seriously impacting the resources available to Nigeria’s government at a time when it not only faces a serious security threat from Boko Haram but other potential threats around the country,” Peter Pham, director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, told the International Business Times.

Kri Kri, Niger, on the shores of Lake Chad. Many Nigerians fled across the border to escape Boko Haram attacks last year (Pic: EC/ECHO/Anouk Delafortrie)

Kri Kri, Niger, on the shores of Lake Chad. Many Nigerians fled across the border to escape Boko Haram attacks last year (Pic: EC/ECHO/Anouk Delafortrie)

Risk analyst firm Maplecroft last October identified Nigeria as one of the countries most threatened by climate change-related violence.

“Widespread drought and food insecurity helped create the socio-economic conditions that led to the emergence of Boko Haram and the violent insurgency in the North East of the country,” it said in a report.

A number of security experts have warned that such security threats could become unmanageable if climate change continues unchecked.

UK Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, the country’s former climate diplomacy chief, told RTCC: “A changing climate, be it as result of extreme weather or the onset of long term trends is likely to increase the stresses in central Africa, especially food and water.

“Whilst the causes of conflict are many and frequently complex it is likely that the increased stresses will exacerbate the potential threat for disruption or terrorism that comes with increased instability.”

At an event in November, Morisetti urged action on climate change to ease security threats, saying: “There is no security solution to climate change. We could probably secure a 2C world. I think it is most unlikely we could secure a 4C world.”

He was referring to the internationally agreed goal to limit global temperature rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels. African and other countries most vulnerable to climate change say that goal should be tightened to 1.5C.

Scientists at Climate Action Tracker estimate the latest carbon-cutting commitments from the US and China have reduced projected warming to 2.9-3.1C.

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Climate change could create more Boko Haram extremists – study https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/10/29/climate-change-could-create-more-boko-haram-extremists-study/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/10/29/climate-change-could-create-more-boko-haram-extremists-study/#comments Wed, 29 Oct 2014 10:44:34 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=19403 NEWS: Drought, famine and crop failures could destabilise 32 countries in Africa and Asia, warn risk analysts

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Drought, famine and crop failures could destabilise 32 countries in Africa and Asia, warn risk analysts 

British forces training Malian troops in response to the 2012 insurgency (Pic: MOD/SAC Dek Traylor)

British forces training Malian troops in response to the 2012 insurgency (Pic: MOD/SAC Dek Traylor)

By Ed King

Climate change could open the door for extremist groups like Boko Haram to take control of parts of Africa and South Asia, risk analyst firm Maplecroft has warned.

In its latest Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas it identifies 32 countries across the two continents where food shortages linked to drought and other natural disasters could “amplify” civil unrest.

Bangladesh, Nigeria, India, Myanmar, Philippines are among the most vulnerable it says, while China, India, Nigeria and Kenya are “high” risk.

In total Maplecroft estimates nearly two billion people face increasingly tough prospects due to rising global temperatures.

“Widespread drought and food insecurity helped create the socio-economic conditions that led to the emergence of Boko Haram and the violent insurgency in the North East of the country,” write the authors.

“Food insecurity and food price volatility have also been identified as triggers to the Arab Spring – particularly in Egypt and the current Syrian conflict.”

Other countries deemed at acute risk include the three West African countries hit by outbreaks of ebola: Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea.

A lack of coordinated governance and security concerns in this region is a “key driver of the region’s increasing vulnerability to climate change” adds Maplecroft.

Climate_Change_2014_Press_Countries_V01

Drawing on recent research from the UN’s IPCC climate science panel, the report says countries heavily reliant on agriculture for their economies are likely to be worst hit by future climate impacts.

“The agricultural sector in Southern and Southeastern Asia in particular is likely to be significantly affected by climate change,” it says.

These regions are expected to experience respective drops in labour capacity of 7% and 16% by 2045 due to future increases in heat stress, threatening economic output and productivity from the agricultural sector.”

IPCC scientists and government officials are meeting this week in Copenhagen to discuss the UN panel’s flagship “synthesis” study.

This will condense the findings of three 1,000-page studies it has released over the past 12 months.

The final document, due out on November 2, is likely to warn that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems”.

Links between climate change and instability are not new. Last month the US military said rising sea levels and temperatures would change the way it operates around the world.

And the NATO military alliance said in September global warming, water scarcity and energy demand would “shape the future security environment” for its 28 member states.

“Unlike policy makers who often ignore or politicise the science in seeking short-term objectives, global business and the military now view climate change as an important risk management imperative,” said Dr James Allan, head of environment at Maplecroft.

“Identifying future flashpoints will help proactive organisations and governments make strategic decisions.”

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Nigeria energy minister backs solar for rural communities https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/08/05/nigeria-energy-minister-backs-solar-for-rural-communities/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/08/05/nigeria-energy-minister-backs-solar-for-rural-communities/#comments Tue, 05 Aug 2014 11:27:54 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=17917 NEWS: Ositadinma Nebo says country will invest in coal and gas power for national grid to combat urban blackouts

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Ositadinma Nebo says country will invest in coal and gas power for national grid to combat urban blackouts

By Ed King

Nigeria’s power minister has backed solar panels to give rural communities access to electricity.

Speaking in Washington on the sidelines of a major US-Africa summit, Ositadinma Nebo said the falling costs of solar made it increasingly attractive to African policymakers.

“Solar is gaining parity with other generation sources,” he said, “and it can meet the gap for communities far from the national grid.”

But he said the Nigerian government would rely heavily on gas and coal for on-grid power in the coming decades. US energy giant GE plans to develop 10GW of capacity.

“There is no doubt that the potential is there. Clean coal technology can give us good electricity and minimum pollution at the same time,” he said.

“It’s important we let Africa be. Nuclear power is also something Africa can latch onto.”

Tanzania power minister Sospeter Muhongo echoed these views. He talked of exploiting Africa’s gas resources, which are estimated at 14.5 trillion cubic metres.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), some 15% of Tanzania’s population has access to electricity. Half of that is generated from hydropower and half from fossil fuels.

Muhongo added the country had scrapped plans for more hydroelectric dams, as climate change is set to make water flows unpredictable. Coal is expected to take a greater share, along with geothermal and solar.

Growth potential

Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said her country needs US$14 billion of investment a year in energy and related infrastructure.

Nigeria recently privatised its energy sector, raising US$2 billion. Okonjo-Iweala said that was a first step in making the sector more transparent and attracting foreign investment.

Nigeria has huge natural energy resources but the World Bank says half the population does not have access to electricity.

Regional governments say this is slowing development, with regular blackouts. Nebo said Nigerians use 12,000 litres of diesel and kerosene every day to drive back-up generators.

The majority of Nigerians use wood, charcoal and waste to fulfill household energy needs such as cooking and heating. These release harmful fumes and carbon pollution.

Sub-Saharan Africa has around 80GW of installed power capacity, comparable to Vietnam. The whole of Africa has about as much installed capacity as Belgium.

“It’s a situation I’ve referred to as energy apartheid,” said World Bank president Jim Kim, also speaking at the Washington event, hosted by the Economist.

“Right now we have to be serious about what we’re going to do to boost energy supply. And if we find ourselves in a situation where some say ‘no coal, no nuclear, no hydro,’ then we’re not serious.

“The growth of solar and wind is a fantastic development and I think it’s going to grow even more, and we have to make sure the financing is available.”

Kim has previously said the World Bank would only fund coal where there was no alternative. It preferred to focus on wind, solar and other renewable technologies.

Further clean energy investment is set to flow into Africa through the UN’s new Green Climate Fund, which is still gathering donations from western governments.

US push

The three-day US-Africa summit involves heads of state from nearly 50 countries that are “in good standing” with Washington.

Talks are expected to touch on the US-run Power Africa initiative, which aims to deliver 10GW of new and clean electricity to the continent.

On Monday the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and The Rockefeller Foundation announced a $100 million “global resilience partnership”. This aims to help African states cope with the effects of climate change, poverty and food insecurity.

“Disasters and shocks pose an unparalleled threat to the world’s most vulnerable communities and hamstring global humanitarian response,” USAID administrator Rajiv Shah said in a statement.

“This new bold partnership will help the global community pivot from being reactive in the wake of disaster to driving evidence-based investments that enable cities, communities, and households to better manage and adapt to inevitable shocks.”

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Fossil fuel subsidies: the addiction Egypt just can’t kick https://www.climatechangenews.com/2013/04/20/fossil-fuel-subsidies-the-addiction-egypt-just-cant-kick/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2013/04/20/fossil-fuel-subsidies-the-addiction-egypt-just-cant-kick/#respond Sat, 20 Apr 2013 02:00:34 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=10830 Fossil fuel subsidy cuts have been targeted by the World Bank, G20 and climate campaigners. While Iran is setting an example, Egypt struggles to cut the cord

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By John Parnell

Fossil fuel subsidies cost governments $523bn a year, but despite a growing consensus that they should be reformed, they linger on.

Earlier this month Egypt walked away from negotiations on a $4.8bn lifeline loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), despite its parlous financial situation.

The loan would have helped leverage $15bn in foreign investment, sending a signal that the country was a good place to invest again after two years of political upheaval that has drained the country’s coffers.

Talks are expected to resume, but one of the main stumbling blocks was a condition that fossil fuel subsidies would be cut.

Given the choice of the timely loan or maintaining the status quo with its subsidy regime, Mohamed Morsi’s government chose the latter given their was no political consensus possible around cuts.

Removing the world’s fossil fuel subsidies has become a high profile issue for NGO’s as well as the EU, G20, the World Bank and the IMF. Campaigners say subsidies line the pockets of big oil companies, supporters claim they are vital to give the world’s poorest access to energy.

Tahir Square in Cairo during the uprising, which observers say was fuelled by “economic grievances” (Source: Flickr/James_P)

Governments largely accept there are economic and climate benefits of bringing fossil fuel prices back up to market value. So why the hesitation to cut such costly policies even when a desperately needed cash injection is at stake?

The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) says Egypt pays out $19bn in fossil fuel subsidies every year, just less than 10% of its GDP.

The main reticence in Egypt is the effect the cut would have on the country’s poorest. This concern is justified.

Subsidies make kerosene and diesel affordable to the world’s poorest people where lamps and generators fill the void left by the absence of an electricity grid and motorbikes take the place of public transport.

“The uprising of 2011 was partly fuelled by economic grievances. Bearing in mind today’s economic and political turmoil, slashing subsidies overnight would be a risky endeavour to say the least,” Hoda Baraka, from Greenpeace’s Arab World Project told RTCC.

“The poverty rate in Egypt climbed from 21% in 2009 to 25% in 2011. Another 20% of the population lives near the poverty line. Looking at these numbers it becomes clear how integral subsidies are for Egypt’s poorest.”

Riots

An overnight cut in subsidies in Nigeria sparked riots in 2012, an event often cited as a reason that subsides must remain in developing countries.

Not every analyst agrees: “The time to reform subsidies is never now, it’s always a case of next year is better for whatever reason. Politics, elections, the economy, there’s always a reason not to do it now,” says Peter Wooders, a senior economist with the International Institute for Sustainable Development’s (IISD) Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI).

“A price rise on its own, without a package to deal with adverse impacts means the chances of it being successful, and sticking, are much lower. If you look at a country like Egypt or at Tunisia, the amount of money they are spending on subsidies is fiscally unsustainable.

“Politically though, it’s an awful time for them to sell prices reforms that would increase prices for people that are poor and vulnerable. People who already see their economic opportunities going down. Holding fossil fuel prices low for the entire population is an incredibly inefficient way to get subsidies to poor people.”

He says a more targeted approach is required. For example, gasoline and diesel are more likely to be used by the middle classes than kerosene. So starting reforms for gasoline first can help protect the poor.

On the other side of the Gulf in Iran, the ODI’s Shelagh Whitley points to a more radical approach that was taken, protecting citizens from price hikes and incentivising lower fossil fuel use.

“Prices increased by 200% but they redirected the saved money to 80% of the population. They literally set up bank accounts for those people and transferred the money directly to them,” she says.

“They can use that money to pay for the higher cost of gas, or they can pocket the money and take the bus. You need to redirect the back to the population but you can do that in ways that send the right signals on energy use as well.”

A major difference between the Iranian and Nigerian approaches was information. The Iranian government informed citizens of the price increases and explained how and when the money would be returned. Nigeria’s did not.

(Source: ODI)

Opposition

If it is possible for governments to cut emissions and costs, why don’t more governments follow this track, especially given the encouragement from the G20, World Bank and other groups representing around 53 governments?

Wooders warns that while this international support is welcome, subsidies are very much an issue for national governments: “In any country in the world you can bet that finance ministries are worried about fossil fuel subsidies,” he says.

“The scale is one issue. If the market price goes the wrong way then those subsides get much bigger very quickly. There are some concerns about short term shocks to the economy and inflation, but every study show the mid to long term reform is good for the country.

“If you change energy pricing, you are effectively changing the distribution of wealth within that country. There’s winners and losers. If those losers include the poorest, or specific industries such as fishing, agriculture, freight, then there could be groups with political power that can block reforms. The classic example is truck drivers in India.”

Protests by drivers in India in 2008 over fuel prices have been repeated in Bolivia, Nepal and Jordan, a potent reason why governments might be prepared to foot the bill rather than risk losing support.

This has been cited as one reason why weak and nervous governments raised consumer fossil subsidies in part of the Middle East in response to the Arab Spring.

Wooders says there are also corrupt elements to contend with – they take subsidised fuel out of the supply chain and sell it on at inflated prices.

Climate

The benefits of subsidy reform are not just economic. They can help incentivise emissions reductions and also free up cash for renewable energy projects and help buffer countries from price spikes. A surge in oil prices can mean a surge in the cost of those subsidies.

Baraka says the Egyptian government has taken this on board, and recently set a 20% renewable energy target by 2020 in response.

“There have been suggestions for the establishment of a renewable-energy fund, which could be a good start. Its implementation and the way in which it will be funded, however, would need to be clarified. A strong strategic vision, backed by empowered institutions, legislation and incentives would be needed,” she says.

With huge solar and wind potential largely untapped, Egypt has perhaps has a more obvious path away from fossil fuels than others. The challenge for the government, like many others around the world, is to find a way that doesn’t alienate the poorest, disadvantage industry or send residents back into fuel poverty.

“Difficult but possible”, says Wooders.

Consumer versus producer subsidies

Consumer subsidies reduce the cost of fossil fuel energy below the going market rate and make up the bulk of the global total. They occur largely in developing nations, particularly those with plentiful supplies of fossil fuels. Consumer subsidies in developed countries typically target specific groups such as farmers and fisherman.

Producer subsidies are given to big oil companies to encourage exploration and operations. They frequently come in the form of tax breaks. The technical definition of a  subsidy is not a cash handout however  just any preferential treatment. Industry says the figures involved are dwarfed by what they contribute in taxes, however, with profits often making the making subsidies look small, the case for their continuation can be hard to prove.

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Africa renewable energy potential ‘can drive growth’ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2013/03/19/africa-renewable-energy-potential-can-drive-growth/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2013/03/19/africa-renewable-energy-potential-can-drive-growth/#respond Tue, 19 Mar 2013 16:43:34 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=10396 World Future Council report suggests supporting clean energy efforts in Africa would give continent huge economic boost

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By Alex Kirby

Africa can go a long way towards lifting itself out of poverty and ending its chronic shortage of energy by using its own resources, a report says.

The report, entitled Powering Africa through Feed-in Tariffs – advancing renewable energies to meet the continent’s electricity needs, says renewable energy feed-in tariff policies (REFiTs) can unlock renewable energy development in Africa.

REFiTs encourage investment in generating renewable energy – by individual home owners and communities as well as institutional investors – by guaranteeing to buy all the electricity produced from renewable sources.

The report is based on analysis of existing and planned REFiT policies in 13 African countries (see end for list). It is the work of the World Future Council and the Heinrich Böll Foundation, with the support of Friends of the Earth UK.

It says that, when tailored to local conditions, REFiT policies successfully increase the overall energy production of areas both on and off the electricity grid.

Their decentralised nature, it says, provides an opportunity to empower communities and to revitalise local democracy and self-governance by allowing for alternative models of ownership and governance. And, of course, they do not cause emissions of harmful greenhouse gases, being based on technologies like wind and solar power.

The authors say REFiTs have helped to increase the use of renewable technologies worldwide, with 65 countries implementing some version of the policy by 2012.

On average about 70% of Africa’s population lacks access to modern and clean forms of energy (Source: IEA 2011) 

Most of the installations that have resulted are in industrialised countries, particularly in Europe, but the report says Africa still has significant untapped renewable energy potential.

World Bank research has shown that fewer than 25% of households in sub-Saharan Africa have access to electricity, with the figure falling to 10% in rural areas.

The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has described renewable energy as “the golden thread that connects economic growth, social equity and a climate and environment that enables the world to thrive”.

Many of the countries examined in the report have low levels of electrification and rural populations which are widely dispersed. But the report says REFiTs can serve decentralised mini-grids, which also encourage greater levels of democratic control and ownership.

Referring to one of the countries featured in the report, Ansgar Kiene, director of the WFC Africa office, said: “Tanzania had already opened its electricity market to independent power producers back in 1992.

“Its experience with mini-grids in particular should be seen as an advantage when it comes to drafting supportive frameworks for accelerated renewable energy production. However, the lack of long-term, low-interest financing has been, and remains, a key challenge.”

The authors acknowledge that broader problems can complicate the adoption of REFiTs. One is the need of developers for access to affordable financing options and to locally available technical expertise.

Welcome for subsidies

Governments must balance the need to keep energy prices low with the requirement to offer sufficiently profitable tariff rates to attract private investment.

The report identifies a number of national and international measures that can help to shift financial resources towards renewable energy uptake. These include levies on fossil fuels and contributions from the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund.

It says high-level political support for REFiTs is essential, and urges models of South-South co-operation to overcome obstacles. Civil society coalitions can help to produce policies which will be resilient to political change.

The report urges policy makers to be very clear what it is they really want to achieve, as REFiTs offer more than one benefit. It says subsidies for low-income households are important, and that rich and energy-intensive users of the schemes should cross-subsidise affordable tariffs for the poor.

Kulthoum Omari, sustainable development programme manager of the Heinrich Böll Foundation Southern Africa, said: “REFiTs are most successful when they are an integral part of a country’s wider development strategy.

“High-level political support and strong buy-ins from civil society and the private sector are crucial factors for the successful development and implementation of a REFiT.”

Countries included in the report are: Algeria, Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda.

This article was produced by the Climate News Network

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UN launches Africa plan to swap kerosene for solar https://www.climatechangenews.com/2013/02/20/un-launches-new-africa-plan-to-swop-kerosene-for-solar/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2013/02/20/un-launches-new-africa-plan-to-swop-kerosene-for-solar/#comments Wed, 20 Feb 2013 13:10:24 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=9983 Nigeria could save US$1.4 billion a year and avoid using 17.3 million barrels of crude oil if it used modern off-grid lighting solutions

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By Ed King

Nigeria could save US$1.4 billion a year and avoid using 17.3 million barrels of crude oil if it used modern off-grid lighting solutions.

That’s one finding of a new UN study into lighting in Africa, a continent that relies heavily on kerosene, candles and batteries to light homes.

In West Africa alone, 76% of the population lacks access to electricity and spends up to 20% of the household budget on kerosene for lighting.

Not only do these practices release huge levels of carbon emissions, they also contribute to lung complaints and are huge polluters across the continent.

The research forms part of an initiative from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) to accelerate the deployment of energy efficient light bulbs and LEDs and small scale solar panels in 50 developing countries.

“Replacing the world’s 670 million kerosene lamps with cleaner, safer solar-powered lighting represents a major opportunity to deliver across multiple fronts,” UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said.

“From cuts in global carbon emissions, health risks from indoor air pollution, support for green technologies and the generation of green jobs.”

UNEP estimated 5% of global energy consumption could be saved if efficient lighting is installed around the world (PIC: UNEP)

Globally, UNEP says over 1.3 billion people live without access to electric light, while 25 billion litres of kerosene are used annually to fuel the world’s kerosene lamps, costing US$23 billion each year.

The agency says this has an even higher price tag if government subsidies are taken into account.

According to a UNEP assessment released last June, 5% of global electricity consumption could be saved every year through a transition to efficient lighting, resulting in annual worldwide savings of over US$110 billion.

The yearly savings in electricity of the phase-out would be equivalent to closing over 250 large coal-fired power plants, or the emissions of more than 122 million mid-size cars.

Off grid power generation is an issue that is being taken increasingly seriously across Africa – where consumers spend between US$12-17 billion a year on fuel-based lighting.

Small and remote communities often do not have access to national electricity grids, which can also be unreliable and susceptible to blackouts.

Innovative financing

Amina Junaid Sani runs a microfinance project called SME Funds in Nigeria. She told RTCC price fluctuations and pollution levels were two major concerns for householders in the country.

“Thousands of women are dying every year because of the use of firewood and kerosene, and the smoke and hardship they go through,” she said.

Her colleague Ladi Ahmed Auwal explained that the use of candles often leads to house fires, while floods and extreme weather conditions can lead to state electricity supplies blacking out.

“We are selling thousands of solar lanterns – people go for it,” she said. “You don’t need batteries; you just put it out into the sun and it lasts throughout the night. It’s safe.”

A Nigeria country assessment provided by en.lighten suggests a transition from kerosene and candles to solar would save households US$66.1 a year, and potentially prevent the emission of 6.4 million tonnes of C02.

Solar lamps cost between US$18-35, and are popular with towns and villages tired of waiting for governments to deliver dependable electricity supplies.

They are significantly more expensive than kerosene lamps, which cost US$5.80, although they have no running costs. A litre of kerosene costs between US$ 0.47-0.63. Households typically use 9.5 litres a month,.

Eliminating the need for flashlights powered by disposable batteries would also reduce waste disposal in landfill and related environmental damage.

In 2010 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon launched the Sustainable Energy for All initiative, with a goal of achieving universal access to modern energy services by 2030.

RTCC VIDEO: Could biofuel stoves cut carbon and fuel costs in Nigeria?

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Climate Live: US storms could threaten region’s ozone layer & EU Energy Commissioner praises unconventional fossil fuels https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/07/27/climate-live-us-storms-could-threaten-regions-ozone-layer-and-eu-energy-commissioner-praises-unconventional-fossil-fuels/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/07/27/climate-live-us-storms-could-threaten-regions-ozone-layer-and-eu-energy-commissioner-praises-unconventional-fossil-fuels/#respond Fri, 27 Jul 2012 07:19:52 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=6365 Today's top headlines: US storms could threaten region's ozone layer, EU Energy Commissioner praises unconventional fossil fuels and UNEP chief praises London Olympics.

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By Tierney Smith

– The day’s top climate change stories as chosen by RTCC
– Tweet @RTCCnewswire and use #RTCCLive hashtag
– Send your thoughts to ts@rtcc.org
– Updated from 0900-1700 BST (GMT+1) 


Latest news – Friday 27 July

1705 RTCC answers all your questions about Shell’s move into the Arctic and how it could have implications for us all.

1600 With the opening ceremony of the London 2012 Games just hours away Business Green give you 10 top Green Olympics facts.

1500 The London 2012 Games cannot act as a “global policeman” checking on everything done by every one of its partners and sponsors, says David Stubbs, the Olympics’ head of sustainability.

He was answering criticisms that have been made in the build up to the Games about some of its choices of sponsors, such as Dow Chemical and oil giant BP.

1400 Tanzania is one country which could benefit from climate change. A study by researchers from Stanford University, the World Bank and Purdue University found that climate change could mean the country could increasingly export corn to the US and other nations.

1300 The severe drought in the US Midwest is causing even more problems for the country. Barges on the Mississippi River were forced to lighten their loads for fear of getting stuck and concerns continue to grow over food and gasoline prices.

1130 The 175-nation Convention on International Trade and Endangered Species met in Geneva this week. Highlights from the meeting include a plan launched by Central African countries to combat poaching in the region and agreements to penalise countries for lacking regulations on wildlife trade.

The agreement could see seven nations lose their ability to legally trade tens of thousands of wildlife species.

1000 The UK city of Bristol has approved new 20 mile per hour speed limits on residential streets in order to make roads less dangerous for walkers and cyclists.

0830 Strong summer thunderstorms that pump water high into the upper atmosphere could threaten the ozone layer over the United States, according to a new study published in the journal Science. Researchers from Harvard University aim to draw the links between climate change and ozone loss over populated areas.

EU Commissioner Günter Oettinger has praised the US pursuit of unconventional fossil fuels in an apparent contradiction of EU policies. The bloc is currently debating its three climate change and energy targets for 2020 – 20% lower emissions, 20% better energy efficiency and 20% renewable energy.

The London 2012 Olympics have been given the seal of approval from UNEP chief Achim Steiner, who says the Games have raised the bar on sustainability.

In an article for RTCC Nigeria expert Jack Hamilton explains why the increasing levels of violence experienced in Nigeria can be partly explained by the effects of climate change and desertification.

Top Tweets

 

 

 

Video of the day

Great video looking at cycling in Portland, Oregon…

How Bikes Make Cities Cool – Portland from Kona Bikes on Vimeo.

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How Nigeria’s vortex of violence is being driven by climate change and desertification https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/07/27/how-nigerias-vortex-of-violence-is-being-driven-by-climate-change-and-desertification/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/07/27/how-nigerias-vortex-of-violence-is-being-driven-by-climate-change-and-desertification/#comments Fri, 27 Jul 2012 00:10:53 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=6353 Jack Hamilton explores how increasing levels of violence in Nigeria and West Africa can be explained by the effects of desertification and climate change

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By Jack Hamilton

Last week a ten year old boy was killed after a rocket was fired at a school in the Nigerian city of Jos. 

Over one hundred more people have been killed in the past two weeks amid the ongoing ethno-religious violence in across Plateau State, of which Jos is the capital.

Responses and accusations have abounded over the political and cultural reasons for the violence but little attention is being paid to one of the chief catalysts behind the conflict: climate change.

Climate change is a driver of conflict.  Scarcity of resources, be they farmable land, water or livestock, is creating mass migrations and antagonising pre-existing tensions in a vicious circle.

Variability in food production and prices leads to social unrest while social unrest itself exacerbates the instability in food production and local investment.  This cyclical crisis is evident in Plateau State and beyond in the Sahel region of West Africa.

Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

Once part of Lake Chad, the waters of the Bodele Depression are now disappearing © NASA

Plateau State is an extreme example of a wider problem sweeping across West Africa, from Lake Chad to the Atlantic, with particularly acute crises in Senegal, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon.  The southward expansion of the Sahara, described as the ‘pulse movement’ by archaeologists, has devastating socio-economic impacts for those living in its path.  As desertification intensifies these conflicts are likely to increase.

Impacts of climate change

Eminent scientist, Sir Gordon Conway, the former chief scientific adviser to the British Department for International Development and the former President of the Rockefeller Foundation said that Africa is already warming up faster than the global average and that the continent will experience a greater amount of intense droughts, floods and storm surges as a result.

This highlights the tragedy of climate change facing Africa: despite being the least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions, it stands to suffer the most.

While there are many facets to climate change in Africa, in the case of central Nigeria it is important to look at food, water and migration.  The environmental concerns in the Delta region and rising water levels across the south coast present challenges in themselves and would require an article in themselves.

Food crisis

Climate change threatens the ability of West Africa to compete in the global food system.  An increase in temperature will undoubtedly reduce yields in a region where the population is set to double within the next two decades.  Some projections claim that crop production will drop by 50% within the same timeframe as this population boom.

Nigerian food producers do not have the capacity to deal with such climate or population fluctuations.  Consequently food availability in many regions will be dangerously compromised leading to greater competition for resources.

Water crisis

In addition to the concerns of food production, the availability of water in the Sahel reached crisis levels several times in recent years.  In 2010 the region suffered a widespread famine, partially as a result of water shortages, and is now in the midst of an ongoing drought that has affected 18 million people.

Debates continue to rage over the future of Sahelian water as some project a decrease in rainfall of 40 percent in a region beset by drought already.  Others have posited that rainfall may increase the Sahel but that such a change would likely lead to an infestation of locusts the like of which have been destroying farmland in Mali and Niger in recent weeks.  When the rains do arrive the cities in the region are often unable to deal with them, evidenced by yesterday’s lethal flooding in Jos which has killed at least 35 people.

While future projections of waterfall vary, there is no doubting the present and impending threats from desertification.

Desertification is the most egregious form the temperature increase has taken as much of the Sahel is already suffering from climate-induced drought.  Approximately 1,350 square miles of Nigerian land turns to desert each year.  To put it in perspective, that is over twice the size of Greater London becoming impossible to farm each year.  This leads to both farmers and herdsmen having to abandon their homes to move to an area with more abundant resources.

Migration crisis and conflict

Encroaching deserts do not merely mean water scarcity and a threat to food security but also mass migration.  The direct competition for resources has the potential to become more acute in several regions of Nigeria and beyond in West Africa.

Thousands are fleeing the desert towards big cities, which are often unprepared to deal with refugees © Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung

An example would be the millions of Malians and Burkinabes in Cote d’Ivoire as a result of the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 1980s.  When the use of migrant labour lost its appeal to Cote d’Ivoire amidst the conflicts of the 1990s it set the course for outside interests to have a major impact on internal conflicts.  Migration disputes continue between the two countries to this day including a substantial impact upon the Ivorian crisis of 2010-11.

As the Sahel continues to dry up as a result of climate change, the land can no longer support the animal stocks required by herders to survive.  Since the only useful land to the herders is to the south of the desert, they move their herds towards the agricultural regions populated by sedentary farmers.  Naturally, the destruction of crops by the herds creates tensions between those moving the animals and those who struggle to grow enough food for themselves in an increasingly unforgiving climate.

The policy solutions up to this point have focused on short-term political factors leading to knee-jerk responses to the violence.  Communities in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Nigeria have expelled Fulani herders.  The existential threat is forcing the Fulani to fight back.

A refusal to acknowledge the role that climate change has played in the region has led to a failure of governance.  Such forced relocations are merely postponing the problem for a future government rather than trying to fix it.  In this sense the agricultural policies in Nigeria have become a microcosm for climate policy.

In the case of Nigeria poor governance as a result of political short-termism has exacerbated the food crisis, the catalyst for migration issues.  Until the 1970s agriculture made up 60% of Nigeria’s GDP.  Since then technological stagnation, myopic policies and corruption have turned the country into a net importer at a cost of $150 billion each year.  The $500 million allocated to agriculture in the 2012 budget could be enough to facilitate the needs of the country if spent wisely.  Some have even argued that Nigeria has the capacity to be the breadbasket for the whole of West Africa.

Politics of inaction

Political short-termism has blighted Plateau State both in terms of local politicians and the global response to climate change.  The sudden explosions of conflict in the region have been predicted for decades.  Despite the upsurge in brutal violence, the policies remain largely the same.

With roughly 40% of Africa now affected by desertification, solutions will have to come soon.  One such solution is the ‘Green Wall’, a wall of trees 4,300 miles long and 9 miles wide stretching across the African continent from Senegal to Djibouti.  The idea has been advocated by West African leaders for over 30 years but has only now been realised.

Erecting walls has rarely provided a long-term solution to conflict.  It is unlikely to do so for climate change.

Jack Hamilton is the editor at InPEC, an online magazine specialising in international politics, energy, and culture.  He is a professional writer and researcher and has published several papers on topics ranging from post-conflict reconciliation in Northern Ireland to health policies in West Africa.  He can be followed on Twitter @jmhamilton  

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RELATED VIDEO: Oshikoya Adekunle, Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja, Nigeria outlines the land degradation problems they are facing in West Africa.

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Youth Profile #1: How Nigerian Climate Coalition are building green bridges ahead of COP18 https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/07/05/youth-profile-1-nigerian-youth-climate-coalition/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/07/05/youth-profile-1-nigerian-youth-climate-coalition/#comments Thu, 05 Jul 2012 04:00:31 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=5988 Olumide Idowu, from the Nigerian Youth Climate Coalition talk to RTCC about the work they do, the reasons why they do it and why working in Nigeria is not always easy.

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By Tierney Smith

Across the world, students and young people are mobilising on climate action in a bid to push world leaders to act and to secure their futures.

Speaking at the Bonn Climate Talks in May, UNFCCC Chief Christiana Figueres, said that it was time for young people to step up and take the baton on climate action, while protests in the corridors by the youth present showed they were ready to take up this challenge.

With our Student Project, we aim to showcase the world being down by young people around the world in pushing forward the climate agenda.

As part of this we will be working our way around the globe, profiling and showcasing the work of a different group each week to see what they are doing, and why.

In the first of this series of profiles, I spoke to Olumide Idowu, Youth Engagement Officer at the Nigerian Youth Climate Coalition.

Olumide Idowu, Youth Engagement Officer at the Nigerian Youth Climate Coalition

He explained what the group in Nigeria aimed to do, how they are going about it and how working in Nigeria is not always simple.

What are your group doing and what areas of work do you focus on?

The Nigerian youth climate coalition works to inspire, empower, mobilize and unite young people to take positive action on climate change acrossNigeria. We implement our programme through four major arms: Media, Policy Formation, Education and Outreach Programmes.

In the media arm we aim to engage young people through social media by organising meetings through our social media which focus more on Sustainable National Development and also we use it to engage the leaders in the area of development to see what they need to do for a better future for the youth.

Our policy formation arms have included projects with the Building Nigerian Response to Climate Change ( BNRCC)/ Nigerian Environmental Study Team ( NEST) in Nigeria which aim to engage young people to be part of the conversation and policy formation in Nigeria.

We also aim to give a room to all youth who want to be part of policy formation. We try to take part in the international processes – based on how engaged we are at the time they are being carried out and we try to participate a lot in the international Climate Change conferences. So far we have been able to send our director to the conferences but we are looking forward to having more young people be part of it once we find the funding to make this happen.

Our education programme involved projects which help the education and understanding of young people in Nigeria. Projects have included Low Carbon Paper Youth Workshops and Campus Climate Change Shows.

Talking about our Outreach we have been able to use the Campus Climate Change Show to showcase the need for climate action. This is a proposed media campaign of the organisation aimed at reaching 60 million young people in the country through radio, television and education programmes.

The objective is to raise awareness of the negative impact of climate change and the need for young people to take action and to educate other young people in the country on issues around climate change, environment and population issues, health and rights education and gender. It is done in different states but we are still working on other states to host it towards COP18.

The group work to engage young people in Nigeria on climate change related issues

What results have you seen from your work so far?

Through us many young people have been able to see the need to take action on climate change and sustainable development. We have mobilized over 10, 000 Nigerian youth and  I can say as well we have received recognition from the government. We have been able to make our own contribution.

We have also been able to make more of an impact by following up the policies in order to make sure they have been passed and included in party papers.

I would say from a scale of 1-10 of cooperation from the Nigerian Government we are probably at about 4 out of 10 because we still have some leaders that are really not putting us into consideration except the ones that are really keen to make change.

Looking at position paper on climate change, we have been able to make a move on seeing how we can implement some of our small projects, which can then be replicated by the government in other states in the country. We have also been able to show the Ministry of Education that we have set out a good way for them to include climate change as part of the school curriculum.

What are the challenges you have faced and what has or hasn’t worked for you?

Our biggest challenge is funding, we do not have the funding to carry out some of the projects we would want to do. We also have a problem in that we find volunteers who want to work with us but we don’t have the mobility. With the volunteers; they have to have a passion for it but also the time to carry out activities. It can be difficult in this part of the world. They are unable to travel to carry out the work.

We have about six states involved in the groups and about 15 people working within that. I think with the little we have to work with we have been able to work out all of the projects we have and we have been able to change lives with it which has been a huge success.

What support have you seen for your activities?

In terms of funding we drive our finance from an array of sources. Primarily individual donations from our supporters make up 50% of our income, the other 50% comes from funds and grants where we send off application forms to be able to cover the costs of the NYCC and run all our campaigns, projects and events.

What are the impacts being seen in your country from climate change?

I have noticed there is much more rain than their used to be.

They also work to get young people engaged in the countries environmental policy

What would be your vision for 2050? 

The impact of the changing climate will be very difficult to handle and it will be potentially very long lasting. It is very serious. The scientific evidence on global warming is strengthening daily and there are risks over and above those that are usually considered.

This needs increased public awareness, youth engagement programme, promotion of research and there needs to be a commissions or agency established that will handle issues related to global warming and climate change. The Federal, State and Local Government, International Agencies and other development partners are required to fund climate change projects around the world for a sustainable solution that must be seen through. These funds should a have a youth engagement component.

I want to see a world with fresh air and green vegetation.  A world where 80% of the youth population in Nigeria have the ability to adapt and engage in climate change actions and programmes

What would help your group move forward in their work?

We need to have proper funding so that we can carry out some other projects and we also have to be part of the decision making at all levels

We are currently working on a climate change booklet for the children of Nigeria and also an initiative called Project I SEE NAIJA which focuses on the Sustainable Development Goals under the UN Millennium Development Goals to see how we can develop training around the project so young people across the country can be involved in the process. We also work closely MDGs of the UN.

What do you think youth groups can bring to the climate debate?

In every nation, youth is like a life which without them there would be no living. I see youth as the backbone of every nation and with the one voice which all youth around the world are looking towards we will see the change we want to see.  They can not be a sustainable society with adequate investment in young people in all sectors of development; ecology, social and the economy.

VIDEO: UNFCCC chief Christiana Figueres demands action from youth over climate change

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PODCAST: Tackling desertification and deforestation in Nigeria https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/04/25/podcast-tackling-desertification-and-deforestation-in-nigeria/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/04/25/podcast-tackling-desertification-and-deforestation-in-nigeria/#comments Wed, 25 Apr 2012 09:31:37 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=4126 In the eighth of a series of UNFCCC CDM Radio Club reports RTCC is hosting, Irini Roumboglou finds out how efficient wood stoves are helping to tackle the problems of deforestation and desertification in Nigeria.

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Efficient wood stoves could bring immediate economic benefits to Nigerian communities as well as longer term environmental benefits (© Yahaya Ahmed/2711 Efficient Fuel Wood Stoves for Nigeria)

Deforestation and desertification are two major problems for rural communities in Nigeria, driven by the region’s need for wood as a source of fuel for households.

In some areas of northern Nigeria, the supply of firewood – a traditional source of heating and cooking fuel for households – is in such short supply much of it is imported from the south of the country, often at high costs to families.

One Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project aims to tackle this problem but installing efficient wood stoves into households, cutting down on the amount of wood families need to use.

As well as the immediate economic benefits for families no longer having to pay out for so much fuel, other benefits have been witnessed from the project, including less indoor pollution, employment generation for young people and women, and huge potential savings of CO2.

In the eighth of a series of UNFCCC CDM Radio Club reports RTCC is hosting, Irini Roumboglou finds out how these efficient wood stoves are also helping to tackle the problems of deforestation and desertification in Nigeria.

The radio club aims to spread the word about the CDM in Africa and extend the benefits of the mechanism to communities that have not yet benefited from the scheme.

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LCEDN VIDEO: The role of the private sector in developing capacity in Nigeria https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/04/10/lcedn-video-the-role-of-the-private-sector-in-developing-capacity-in-nigeria/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/04/10/lcedn-video-the-role-of-the-private-sector-in-developing-capacity-in-nigeria/#respond Tue, 10 Apr 2012 08:31:32 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=3922 Professor Eli Jidere Bala from the Energy Commission in Nigeria spoke to RTCC about the country’s potential for renewable energy, and the role the private sector will have in making it a reality.

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By Tierney Smith 

The private sector will place a key role in developing renewable energy capacity in Nigeria, according to the country’s Energy Commission.

Speaking at the Low Carbon Energy for Development Network conference, Professor Eli Jidere Bala, director of Renewable Energy at the Commission told RTCC that the country holds huge potential for renewable energy.

However, he believes the country still has a long way to go to harness its potential power.

He said, the Energy Commission of Nigeria hopes to make investment in renewables more attractive to the private sector – both for on-grid and off-grid projects.

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PODCAST: Fuelling the fire with waste paper in Nigeria https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/04/04/podcast-fuelling-the-fire-with-waste-paper-in-nigeria/ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/04/04/podcast-fuelling-the-fire-with-waste-paper-in-nigeria/#respond Wed, 04 Apr 2012 08:16:32 +0000 http://www.rtcc.org/?p=3875 In the fifth in a series of UNFCCC Radio podcasts, Ugochi Anyaka, from Aso Radio in Nigeria debates whether paper briquette projects should be approved under the CDM.

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This week Ugochi Anyaka examines whether paper briquette project should be included in the CDM.

Around 60 million Nigerians still rely on firewood for their cooking.

Meanwhile, tonnes of paper used in the country everyday ends up in landfill because of the lack of suitable recycling systems.

One project aims to solve both solutions using small scale production of paper briquettes – flammable blocks of paper.

The project aims not only to reduce the reliance on firewood – in turn reducing deforestation – but also helps people in the local communities learn skills and develop businesses.

In the fifth of a series of UNFCCC CDM Radio Club reports RTCC is hosting, Ugochi Anyaka from Aso Radio in Nigeria debates whether this type of project could and should be approved under the Clean Development Mechanism.

The story won the third prize in the 2011 UNFCCC/CDM African Radio Contest.

The radio club aims to spread the word about the CDM in Africa and extend the benefits of the mechanism to communities that have not yet benefited from the scheme.

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