Debt-laden growers want an existing government procurement system to be made legally binding and to raise the minimum price for a wider range of crops – which could help them move away from thirsty rice and wheat farming.

But some agricultural analysts argue that bolstering the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for produce would not resolve the wider climate problems farmers face, nor ease demand for scarce water resources.

Expectations mount as loss and damage fund staggers to its feet

Deedar Singh, a 50-year-old farmer from Patiala, joined a march towards Delhi in mid-February and spoke to Climate Home at a camp on the Punjab-Haryana border, 200 km from Delhi. He participated in a similar mobilisation back in 2020 that lasted for just over a year.

With a family of nine to support, he complained that his five-acre landholding and meagre income of 200,000 rupees per year ($2,400) cannot provide a decent quality of life, especially as weather extremes worsen.

“If untimely rain destroys our rice or hot temperatures shrink the wheat grain, our crops are ruined, leaving us unable to even cover the costs of the next cropping season,” said Singh. Most people in his village rely on financial support sent by their children who have migrated abroad, he added.

Farmers gather at the Shambhu border, between Punjab and Haryana, to burn effigies of political leaders and shout slogans in support of the protest, February 27 2024 (Photo: Kanika Gupta)

Globally, India accounts for 10% of agricultural output and is the second-largest producer of rice and wheat. It is also the biggest consumer of groundwater. Its 260 million farmers depend heavily on depleting water reserves to irrigate their crops.

That means they are also struggling with climate change, as about 65% of the country’s cropped area depends on rainwater. Erratic rainfall and shorter winters are harming yields, with heavy downpours causing flooding and a sudden spike in temperatures a year ago causing wheat grain to shrink.

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) reports that for every 1C increase in temperature, wheat production suffers a significant decline of 4-5 million tonnes.

Debt drives suicides

Water resources are running low and farmers’ input costs have soared – yet the government-administered minimum support price (MSP) has not risen accordingly, said Ramandeep Singh Mann, an agriculturist and member of Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, an umbrella body spearheading the current protest.

That has left farmers with no money to pay for contingencies and has forced many to take on high levels of debt, he said.

“At some point your back breaks. When that happens, there is no other solution but to take extreme steps,” he added, referring to suicides among indebted farmers.

To boost falling yields, farmers are using more inputs like water and fertilisers, leaving them with higher production costs and lower profit margins.

Some states have provided free or subsidised electricity, as well as loan forgiveness for debt-strapped farmers, but since 2014, only half of the intended waiver recipients have benefited, according to a study by the State Bank of India.

These woes have fuelled a growing wave of protest, as farmers feel they have no other recourse.

Nonetheless, Sardara Singh Johl, a 97-year-old agricultural economist from Ludhiana and former vice-chancellor at Punjab Agricultural University, said the latest mobilisation was unlikely to result in the dialogue required to address the broader problems facing farmers.

“They already have MSP for wheat and rice, and these are high-paying crops. Even if you reduce the price risk with MSP, what can you do about the other uncertainties?” he asked.

In mid-February, at the last round of talks with the government, ministers proposed to purchase five additional crops – moong dal, urad dal, tur dal, maize and cotton – from farmers at an MSP for five years through central agencies, but farmers rejected the offer.

Jagjit Singh Dallewal, leader of the non-political Samyukta Kisan Morcha group, which is also involved in organising the farmers’ protest, said the proposal would mainly benefit farmers willing to switch from paddy or wheat to other crops and would not ensure a stable income.

Farmer leaders give a press conference at Shambhu border, between Punjab and Haryana, on February 27 2024. Photo: Kanika Gupta)

Water reserves shrink amid over-use

Economist Johl argued that, irrespective of its profitability, rice is no longer a suitable crop for Punjab as its water table recedes to a dangerously low level.

A study by Punjab Agricultural University found that between 1998 and 2018, groundwater levels in the region had dropped drastically, from 10 metres below ground to 30 metres, largely due to a shift from traditional canal irrigation to widespread adoption of tube wells for water extraction.

Farmers are aware of Punjab’s dwindling water resources, said Mann, but they need guaranteed price support for more crops in order to shift away from water-intensive rice cultivation.

“They know that if they are able to earn as much as they do from paddy, they will grow other crops. But without fair support of MSP, it is hard to make that switch,” he said.

In Somalia, Green Climate Fund tests new approach for left-out communities

Uday Chandra, a professor of government at the Georgetown University in Qatar, said key food-supplying states like Punjab have struggled to get their problems heard and dealt with by the national government.

“The problem is that what the Punjab farmer wants isn’t sustainable,” he said, referring to the state’s shrinking water supplies. “The best way would be to bring them into discussion and find a solution that is specific to them.”

Trucks lined up at the Shambhu border, 200 km from Delhi, after being stopped by the central government from advancing to the Indian capital, February 27 2024 (Photo: Kanika Gupta)

Thousands of farmers who were initially stopped by heavy police control outside Delhi have now made it to the capital after receiving permission to protest at the Ramlila Maidan ground. They are determined to maintain their mobilisation during the general elections – which will take place over several weeks from late April until the start of June – if their MSP demands go unmet.

In 2021, angry farmers backed down after the government rowed back on laws that had sparked huge protests. But they have now returned to direct action, calling on the government to fulfill its promises, including demands for pensions, debt waivers, penalties for selling counterfeit agricultural inputs, and withdrawal from the World Trade Organization.

Call for high-tech solutions

Mann said climate change is compounding their woes – yet while the government acknowledges the problem, it is doing little to help the sector deal with it.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

However, at the ICAR’s Annual General Meeting last month, Arjun Munda, Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, said the Modi government is committed to bolstering the agricultural sector and supporting farmers, including with high-yielding, resilient seed varieties released by ICAR in the past decade.

It also issues Agromet weather-based crop advisories with the India Meteorological Department to about 60 million farmers twice a week and promotes practices for more efficient use of water and nutrients.

But protesting farmers said the government’s measures are failing to help them adapt adequately to a changing climate and water shortages.

Bhupinder Singh, a farmer in Punjab’s Mohali district, discusses his transition to organic farming methods as a means to prevent the burning of stubble remaining after rice cultivation, November 26 2023. (Photo: Kanika Gupta)

Haranjeet Singh, 53, of Ludhiana in Punjab, said the rice variety farmers are now planting gives smaller harvests, after the government suspended use of a more productive but thirstier variety which also took longer to mature and produced more stubble – a major cause of air pollution when burned.

“Unfortunately, these new seeds don’t give us as much yield,” he said. “We are spending the same amount of money and getting less in return.”

Madhura Swaminathan, daughter of the late MS Swaminathan – the architect of India’s Green Revolution which boosted crop yields and tackled the nation’s food scarcity issues in the 1970s – believes greater use of technology could help.

The professor at the Indian Statistical Institute in Bangalore pointed to an example she encountered in Amritsar a few years ago, where groundwater sensors were connected to mobile apps, enabling users to remotely control water pumps and conserve water.

“We must embrace new technologies, farming practices, and techniques to tackle the challenges brought by climate change,” she said.

The post What will it take to protect India’s angry farmers from climate threats? appeared first on Climate Home News.

In the past 15 months the governor of the Bank of England has delivered four keynote speeches focused on global warming and participated in a UN climate summit.

Carney doesn’t do soaring rhetoric: what he does do is grind out a series of carefully calibrated warnings on the impact a warming world could have on the financial markets.

“Once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late,” he told the UK insurance industry at a September 2015 event at Lloyds of London.

“Climate change is a tragedy of the horizon which imposes a cost on future generations that the current one has no direct incentive to fix,” he warned German business leaders a year later.

Weekly briefing: Sign up for your essential climate politics update

As chairman of the G20 nations’ Financial Stability Board, Carney has overseen studies into the potential of green finance flows and the need for greater transparency on climate risk.

The latter was presented in London this week in a smart but low-key launch at the Tate Modern, attended by media and representatives from banking and industry leaders.

Mandated by the G20 and chaired by former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, the thick report may prove to be a turning point in the way the financial services sector thinks about climate change.

It sets out recommendations supported by Barclays, HSBC, Tata Steel and the China Development Bank for tougher climate risk analysis across all sectors – including fossil fuel majors.

It details how companies should map out how they will fare if the 195 countries that agreed the Paris climate deal deliver on their plan to cut carbon emissions to virtually zero by 2050.

Report: G20 panel tells energy giants to come clean on climate risks

“This is a solution for the market, by the market,” said Carney. “With the right information, financial markets can smooth the transition to a 2C world,” he added.

There’s nothing on polar bears, penguins, wind turbines or the need to go vegan in Carney’s playbook. He’s so dull he can be hard to quote, but his words make sense to the banking community.

“There have been lots of attempts to give companies guidance, but none of those have come from the Financial Stability Board or the governor of the Bank of England,” says Steve Waygood, head of Aviva Investors sustainable and responsible investment team.

“He’s a climate hero for bringing in a vital constituency,” says Mark Campanale, a former banker now running the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI). “He says straightforward things: markets have to price risk and we need more data and scenario analysis.”

Carney’s impact on media coverage of climate is instructive. Where green groups target the Guardian, New York Times and other centre-left outfits, when the governor talks climate he’s reported across the mainstream media.

That makes him a target for critics, notably those who want him to stick to his “day job” as governor.

“Who put Mark Carney in charge of climate policy?” asked the Daily Telegraph’s business columnist Jeremy Warner in 2015, branding his interest in the issue “well meaning” but “reckless”.

Former chancellor Lord Lawson – founder of the climate sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation – has long called on Carney to face the sack, accusing him of “engaging in green claptrap”.

Times writer Tim Montgomerie was equally dismissive this week – tweeting the governor was “not running” to be the next prime minister of Canada yet.

Mark Carney has opinions on many things but he's not running to be Canada's PM yet and should focus on his day job https://t.co/XPmP9EZwjc

— Tim Montgomerie (@montie) December 14, 2016

What’s curious about these mini-blowouts is that Carney actually says relatively little on climate policy – simply that countries and companies should be aware of the risks they face.

“Participants in the Lloyd’s market know all too well that what appear to be low probability risks can evolve into large and unforeseen costs over a longer timescale,” he said in last September’s address.

Carney did touch on the stranded assets debate – the chance that some oil, gas and coal reserves could become worthless if the global transition to a greener economy accelerates.

But here again he is not saying anything new – just taking seriously the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculations on what remains in the carbon budget for 2C.

“If that estimate is even approximately correct it would render the vast majority of reserves ‘stranded’ – oil, gas and coal that will be literally unburnable without expensive carbon capture technology, which itself alters fossil fuel economics,” he said.

Report: Climate divested funds now bigger than listed oil, gas sector

Critics of his interventions are “dangerously misguided” argues Waygood, who says Aviva and the wider insurance industry “strongly support” his stance.

“We’re at one end of a spectrum of risk. Warming beyond 4C (above pre industrial levels) is an existential risk for the insurance sector.”

#Climatechange in 17 tweets, by @ed_hawkins https://t.co/eCuB3Xls65 pic.twitter.com/9YQMLf5rzd

— Climate Home News (@ClimateHome) December 13, 2016

Jane Ambachtsheer, global head of Responsible Investment at Mercer Investments, says Carney’s warnings are pushing at an open door.

“There have been clear signals from the investment community in the last decade that companies are interested in assessing climate risk,” she says. “The fact over 6,000 already report [on climate risk] voluntarily through CDP suggests that message is getting through.”

Where Carney’s desire to drum up climate warnings come from is not clear – one report says his wife Diana is an “eco warrior” who wants to return consumption to “sustainable” levels.

We also know he met UN climate chief Christiana Figueres for a business breakfast in October 2015, and that he received a presentation on Carbon Tracker Initiative’s “unburnable carbon” report earlier that year.

But reading through his speeches, what comes across is less a passionate treehugger and more a man who has looked at the data and thinks investors could do with a little more clarity.

It’s a message he will doubtless take to the World Economic Forum in Davos next month, where he’s due to host a climate round-table.

“Given the uncertainties around climate, not everyone will agree on the timing or the scale of adjustments required to achieve this goal,” he said at yesterday’s report launch.

“But the right information will allow optimists and pessimists, sceptics and evangelists, to back their convictions with their capital.“

The post Mark Carney, the unlikely climate champion appeared first on Climate Home News.

Avian influenza surveillance in Bangkok in 2014 (Flickr/ USAID)

By Alex Pashley

The spectre of “society collapsing” as humans caught a deadly strain of avian flu forced the UK government to stockpile vaccines in 2005, according to Sir David King, the UK’s top climate envoy.

The odds were not dissimilar to the planet cooking by up to a cataclysmic 7C from next century – less than 1% – but the risk was deemed worthwhile of intervention.

Policymakers must display the same fervour in their long-term assessment of the risks of climate change, said King at the launch of an independent report on Monday.

Greenhouse gas emissions are set to keep rising for the next few decades before levelling off or decreasing gradually, in spite of voluntary carbon cuts by countries, according to the study carried out by researchers in the UK, US, China and India.

That puts a warming planet on multiple trajectories, where melting ice sheets and chronic droughts make plausible a range of disastrous scenarios for civilisation.

Not scaremongering

“There seems to be a much less deliberate consideration of worst-case scenarios when it comes to long term climate change,” King, an eminent scientist and lead author, told an audience at the London Stock Exchange on Monday.

“It may have something to do with the post-Copenhagen success of the climate denial community and the worry that people shouldn’t be scaremongering.

“What of course one does in a risk analysis is nothing to do with scaremongering – it’s looking at probability against big outcomes.”

The four trajectories for carbon emissions, or representative concentration pathways (Photo: Global Carbon Project)

Report: IPCC meets to review new climate fighting tools

The UN’s climate science panel, the IPCC forecast multiple trajectories for global warming over the course of the century. If emissions continue at current rates, the planet could warm by as much as 5C, a level scientists say is catastrophic.

Even starker scenarios are possible, and aren’t being fully considered, warned the report. A UK government minister, Baroness Anelay drew parallels between the importance of tackling climate change with nuclear proliferation at the event.

Impacts

The IPCC latest assessment report made just one mention of warming of 5-10C out of 67 occasions. The level of 2C – and internationally agreed goal – received 31 mentions, with 4C, 26.

A global temperature rise of 4-5C would see crop yields drastically reduced, such as maize in the Midwestern US and rice in southern China.

Meanwhile, 1m of global sea level rise could increase the likelihood of what is now a ‘100 year flood event’ 200 times more likely in New York, and 1000 times more likely in Kolkata.

If governments want to avoid this, “start from an understanding of what it is that we wish to avoid; then assess its likelihood,” recommended the report.

Already populations are experiencing climate impacts, given governments evidence for action.

Resource conflict

A growing body of evidence links the Arab Spring with a 2011 Russian heatwave that lowered wheat yields, pushing up bread prices across North Africa and the Middle East. Drought in Syria between 2007-11 could have ignited the country’s conflict.

So far, global temperatures have risen about 0.85C on pre-industrial levels. Resource conflict would sure intensify in a warmer planet.

Leaders should use the same probabilities for companies going insolvent, 1 in 200, said Trevor Maynard, head of exposure, risk and reinsurance at the leading insurers, Lloyds of London.

Mark Carney: Climate one of “top risks” facing insurance industry

Real Admiral Neil Morisetti, former UK special representative for climate change, described climate change in terms of a “security threat”, as trade routes were disrupted and terrorism prospered in destabilised regions.

Military strategy, seen in the US quadrennial defence review reflected on the “middle ground of the risk profile, the most likely or best option because that fits neatly with the allocation of resources,” he said.

“The reality is we need to look at the tails of that risk profile.”

The post Bird flu offers lesson in averting climate calamity, says UK envoy appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Mercer report opening page – Investing in a Time of Climate Change)

By Ed King

Coal companies, utilities and countries wedded to high carbon energy face potentially severe losses over the next 35 years as a result of climate change policy and extreme weather events.

That’s one of the key findings of a major new study into climate risk released on Thursday, released by consultants Mercer and backed by the World Bank, along with the UK and German governments.

Returns in the coal sector could fall between 18-75% by 2050, says Mercer, while renewables could grow anywhere between 6-54%.

“Oil and utilities could also be significantly negatively impacted over the next 35 years, with expected average returns potentially falling from 6.6% p.a. to 2.5% p.a. and 6.2% p.a. to 3.7% p.a. respectively,” says the report.

It suggests investors examine how their assets could be hit by the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, the imposition of a price on carbon or irregular access to water as a result of climate impacts.

The authors say fund managers must start to take a “prudent view of risk” and start evolving their investment portfolios and improving their modelling to take extreme weather events into account.

“There is strong evidence that, if we follow our current [emissions] trajectory, there will be a high risk of irreversible and severe impacts across the globe,” it says.

While high carbon sources of energy are deemed to be the highest risk for investors, agriculture, timber and global real estate could also suffer if warming accelerates.

Costing risk

Jane Ambachtsheer, chair of Mercer’s responsible investment team, said the aim of the study was to help investors “build resilience” into their portfolios.

“We recognise that markets do not always price in change; they are notoriously poor at anticipating incremental structural change and long-term downside risk until it is upon us,” she said.

While climate change does not currently feature as a risk for fiduciaries in the UK, the authors believe that will change.

A proposed global climate change deal – due to be signed off in Paris this December – could also change the investment climate for low carbon energy.

The most optimistic scenario painted by Mercer predicts that $65 trillion could be directed towards low carbon sources of energy and efficiency measures by 2050, bleeding support for fossil fuels.

National focus

Tougher global steps to address climate change will hit some countries harder than others, with those deemed to have ignored the risks hurt most.

“We believe that the Australian economy is more susceptible to a policy shock than other developed markets given the uncertainty surrounding its national climate change policy, which currently lags other developed markets, combined with the level of dependency of the Australian economy on carbon-intensive sectors,” the study says.

In the longer term the authors say UK, Australian, and Canadian equities are likely to be more sensitive to moves to cut greenhouse gas emissions given their high exposure to carbon-intensive sectors.

“Investors should consider increasing exposure to emerging market equities and sustainable real assets if they envision strong or very strong action on climate change.”

“Key downside risks come either from structural change during the transition to a low-carbon economy, where investors are unprepared for change, or from higher physical damages,” they add later in the report.

Ray Dhirani, corporate stewardship manager on sustainable finance at WWF-UK labelled it a “landmark report.”

“While it highlights the significant portfolio risks from climate change, it also shows that there are opportunities for long term investors in a low carbon world,” he said.

The post Account for climate risk or lose billions, investors warned appeared first on Climate Home News.

An increase in extreme weather events is likely to severely impact financial institutions, says new discussion paper (Pic: NASA/Flickr)

By Ed King

Leading financial institutions should start to take the threat posed by climate change more seriously, a discussion paper published by the Bank of England has suggested.

The One Bank Research Agenda, released on Wednesday, warns global warming could have “significant effects” on markets and financial bodies.

“Fundamental changes in the environment could affect economic and financial stability and the safety and soundness of financial firms, with clear potential implications for central banks,” they write.

“To date, the Bank’s work in this area has primarily focused on how insurance firms might adapt to the effects of climate change given that any future increases in the frequency and severity of weather-related catastrophes places the industry at the front line of responding to the financial impacts of climate change.”

As an example of how fast changes can occur, the paper cites the rise of digital currencies which, it says, are now shaping the way the banks operate and how they drive revenue.

“New technologies have radically and permanently reshaped both the financial and real sectors of the economy,” it says.

It adds that central banks must start to consider the safety of fossil fuel investments, given the long term need to decarbonize the world’s energy systems and move away from oil, gas and coal.

Last October the Bank of England’s governor Mark Carney said the “vast majority” of fossil fuel reserves were unburnable if temperature rise were to be limited to 2C.

The idea that this will cause stranded assets that could result in a “carbon bubble” has the support of the World Bank, IMF and the UN’s climate body, along with green NGOs.

And the authors say that insurance companies could face increasing demands if and when extreme weather events increase as a result of rising temperatures.

“Physical risks, such as catastrophic weather events, could affect economic growth, particularly in developing countries, and be translated directly into financial losses through an increase in insurance claims,” they write.

The post Bank of England: finance bodies should assess climate risk appeared first on Climate Home News.

The costs of inaction on climate change are likely to rise significantly says the White House (Pic: Soil Science.info/Flickr)

By John Upton in Los Angeles

As hearings began on Tuesday morning into proposed greenhouse gas rules affecting American power plants, President Barack Obama got an early jump on his critics with the release of an economic report linking further delays to climate action with spiraling costs and financial damages.

The American Chamber of Commerce and other big-business groups representing fossil fuel companies say the rules, which would primarily curb pollution from the nation’s vast fleet of coal-burning power plants, would hinder the economy by raising electricity costs.

Environmentalists counter that energy efficiency gains under the new rules, combined with a potential jolt to the fast-growing renewable energy sector, could lead to economic as well as climate benefits.

But as these groups were pleading their cases Tuesday during the first of four planned public hearings hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, each of which has already “sold out,” it was the Obama Administration that was controlling the news.

Delayed action will increase the costs of climate change. It’s time to act: http://t.co/RYfLVl7PQ8 #ActOnClimate

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) July 29, 2014

In addition to releasing a new report by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the White House made separate announcements Tuesday regarding fresh efforts to reduce climate-changing methane emissions and to use big data to help farmers adapt to climate change.

Meanwhile, high-profile White House advisor John Podesta, a strong advocate of climate action, is leading the US delegation at the Pacific Islands Forum this week.

And State Secretary John Kerry discussed climate change risks and clean energy during a speech about Indian and U.S. relations at the Centre of American Progress think tank on Monday.

The new White House report concludes that the cost of “hitting a specific climate target,” such as limiting carbon dioxide concentrations, would increase 40% for every decade that efforts to curb carbon emissions are delayed.

It also points to research that concludes that allowing global temperatures to rise by 3 degrees C, instead of the global goal of 2 C, would worsen economic damages by 0.9% of global output. In the U.S., the report notes that would have translated into a $150 billion hit in 2014.

“These costs will take the form of either greater damages from climate change or higher costs associated with implementing more rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions,” the 32-page report states. “In practice, delay could result in both types of costs.”

Wide support

Tuesday’s announcements and report were fresh signs that Obama’s Democratic Party remains confident that acting to slow and adapt to climate change has become a winning electoral strategy.

Obama, who is serving his second and final four-year term, began a climate protection blitz a little more than a year ago, when he announced a 75-goal climate action plan.

The blitz has included rolling out new regulations, publishing scientific reports, and making speeches that extol the environmental and economic benefits of slowing warming.

The president has recently been lambasting Republican energy policies during speeches, accusing his political opponents of pretending to not be able to read scientific reports.

Those attacks have been part of a broader effort by the Democrats to use climate change as a political wedge issue, isolating Republicans from the majority of the American electorate.

Although Americans overall remain more apathetic about climate change than residents of other countries, polls have consistently shown that most Americans support the proposed new power plant rules.

Political divide

Meanwhile, Republicans, with some high-profile exceptions, have been backing away from former positions of flat-out climate change denialism.

But they have been struggling to consistently articulate a fresh position on climate change. Some former climate change deniers have taken to deflecting questions about global warming by saying they’re not academically qualified to discuss climate science.

The schism between the parties on climate change is widening as the U.S., one of the world’s worst greenhouse gas polluters, and long a thorn in the side of global efforts to slow down global warming, prepares for elections that could shape the fate of international climate agreements.

Elections in November will reshape Congress, which, under the current control of the conservative Republican Party, would never be expected to ratify an international climate treaty that’s expected to be finalized in Paris late next year.

The Republican-controlled Congress has refused to pass laws that address climate change, forcing Obama to craft a climate strategy that leverages the Clean Air Act and other existing laws.

Meanwhile, the nation will elect a new president in late 2016 – a leader who is likely to oversee early American efforts to meet the nation’s obligations under next year’s climate treaty.

“There’s a marked shift in the way climate change is being perceived by the American public and by the political classes,” David Doniger, the policy director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, a science-based group that helped the federal government craft its proposed power plant rules, told RTCC.

Doniger attributed wild weather events afflicting North America in recent years and a “steady drumbeat of scientific reports” for the turnaround.

“I don’t think a climate denier can be elected president, and that’s a quandary for the Republican Party,” Doniger said.

“It creates a big challenge for someone in the Republican Party, who might do well in the primaries, but who is basically alienating themselves from the center of the electorate.”

The post Obama cranks up pressure on critics with latest climate play appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Garrett Coakley/Flickr)

By Ed King

England is not prepared for future extreme weather events linked to climate change, say government advisors.

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) warns around three-quarters of existing flood defences are not being maintained as they should each year.

It says this means this year’s heavy floods, which submerged parts of Somerset and the Thames Valley, could be repeated if the country experiences heavy rainfall.

The report’s lead author, Lord Krebs, says current planning assessments do not take climate impacts into account.

“Events such as last winter’s storms and floods illustrate the costs of a lack of resilience, with many thousands of people forced to leave their homes, businesses and transport disrupted, with the associated costs to the economy and to well-being,” he said.

“Building resilience for the future is an essential component of the nation’s strategy for a healthy population and growing economy.”

Railways, main roads and airports are also at risk the report says. A major rail link between London and the south west was out of service for four months this year after coastal erosion.

The government says it has allocated £3.2bn between 2010-2015 on flood management and coastal defences.

Download the report here. Below we’ve highlighted some of its key messages.

Flooding

“Continuing development on the floodplain is increasing the reliance on flood defences. Under-investment in these defences is storing up costs and risks for the future. Hundreds of flood defence projects are currently on hold. Despite recent improvements in asset management, three-quarters of existing flood defences are not being sufficiently maintained.”

Infrastructure

“Electricity transmission and distribution companies are implementing comprehensive strategies to safeguard the resilience of their networks to climate change. Network Rail is taking many of the necessary steps. However, there are shortcomings in the approaches being taken by water companies, and for strategic roads, ports and airports, and ICT services.”

Public health

“Heatwaves are likely to contribute to more deaths in the future, due to climate change combined with an ageing population. A Heatwave Plan has been introduced to reduce the public health impacts arising from periods of high temperatures. However there is a more fundamental need to adapt the existing building stock and design new buildings to be safe and comfortable in a hotter climate.”

Emergency Planning

“The capacity in the emergency response system to manage severe weather events needs to be evaluated, particularly in the context of climate change. This evaluation should include the required national capability for flood rescue, how budget reductions across a number of agencies might have affected the collective ability to respond, and the coverage of climate hazards in community risk registers. Failure to address these issues in a coordinated way between national and local responders risks inefficiency, confusion, and resource shortages in the event of a crisis.”

The post England unprepared for future climate risks appeared first on Climate Home News.

Averting climate and disaster risk will need a more positive message if the necessary urgency is to be achieved, the UN and consultancy PwC have warned.

More support from governments and awareness from business of the scale of the potential impacts is needed they have urged.

The 2011 Thailand floods affected a number of electronic component manufacturers with Sony and Toyota forced to close regional factories. At the time Intel cut $1bn from its quarterly profit projections in response to the floods.

Andrew Maskrey, head of risk knowledge at the UN’s disaster risk agency the UNISDR, told RTCC that the tangible, up-front benefits of preparing for the effects of disasters and worsening climate variability needed to be highlighted.

“No politician has ever won an election on the basis of loss or risk reduction. They win elections based on delivering concrete benefits to citizens,” said Maskrey.

“This is where we have been mis-selling disaster risk reduction (DRR) logic and why it has not developed into a real political or economic imperative,” he told RTCC.

The Bangkok floods demonstrated how exposed the global electronics industry was to climate risk (Source: UN/Mark Garten)

Maskrey gives the example of the head of the water authority in Ecuador’s capital city, Quito, who he recently visited.

“It’s his job to provide the city with clean water. But he is doing it in a way that involves green roofs and a number of other things that will actually go on to control droughts and floods.”

The UNISDR and PwC launch their joint report Working together to reduce disaster risk today calling on businesses to start mitigating for the potential impacts facing.

Dealing with these can present opportunities as well as challenges, according to PwC.

“Business growth is happening in emerging economies so there is a lot of investment in areas that are more prone to disasters. This has been building up risk,” Dr Celine Herweijer, partner, PwC sustainability & climate change, told RTCC.

“There is also an opportunity for businesses to contribute to DRR efforts in those countries.

“When it comes to how a disaster might affect their distribution network, supply chain partners, the consumer markets they operate in, that is frequently not adequately considered,” she said.

“There’s a gap in the management of those risks. This is happening against the backdrop of operating in a globalised economy that is very interconnected,” said Dr Herweijer pointing out that this means risks can quickly spread, even if they seem to be far away.

The UNISDR Global Assessment Report, launched last week. This week the Global Platform for disaster risk reduction takes place in Geneva. Representatives of national and local governments, the World Bank and businesses including Citigroup and Nestle will meet to discuss how to improve resilience to extreme and unpredictable events.

The post UN: Businesses underestimating climate risk appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Ministers, including those from Japan, Russia, USA and UK said the effects of an increasingly variable climate will put pressure on resources, a topic they believe is worthy of further discussion.

“Climate change remains a key global challenge which, if not controlled, would have dramatic consequences not only on the environment but also on economic prosperity,” read the summary of the discussions issued after the meeting.

There was no indication that climate change would feature highly at the G8 summit in June. As RTCC reported Downing Street has blocked efforts from France and Germany to place the issue on the agenda.

G8 Foreign Ministers agreed to do more work on the potential security threat of climate change (Source: Flickr/Foreign and Commonwealth Office)

The communique repeated the G8 countries support for the UN climate negotiations, which are working towards a legally binding deal to be signed in 2015.

Recognising the potential for climate change to act as a ‘risk multiplier’, Ministers said they would ensure governments worked closely to monitor and evaluate the threat posed by floods, droughts and other extreme weather events.

“Officials from interested G8 countries will meet to consider the potential consequences of climate change and associated environmental and resource stresses as a contributing factor to increased security risks globally, and report to Foreign Ministers,” they stated.

The addition of the wording “interested G8 countries” will placate Russia who recently joined China in blocking a formal discussion of climate change at the UN Security Council in February.

Threat multiplier

Climate change has been identified as a security risk by a number of senior military figures talking about the issue.

Neil Morisetti, the British Foreign Secretary’s new Special Representative for Climate Change and a former Rear Admiral in the Royal Navy, told RTCC he plans to devote a substantial part of his role explaining the potential security threats of global warming to the public.

“You could argue in northern Europe that this doesn’t affect us,” he said. “But the reality is we live in a globalised world, and we’re very much dependent on other parts of the world for our own well-being and our own prosperity.

Over 100 countries now regard climate change as a national security concern according to a report by US analysts American Security Project (ASP).

G8 Foreign Ministers on Climate Change:

Climate change remains a key global challenge which, if not controlled, would have dramatic consequences not only on the environment but also on economic prosperity. G8 Ministers recognised climate change as a contributing factor to increased economic and security risks globally.

The G8 agreed to consider means to better respond to this challenge and its associated risks, recalling that international climate policy and sustainable economic development are mutually reinforcing. Officials from interested G8 countries will meet to consider the potential consequences of climate change and associated environmental and resource stresses as a contributing factor to increased security risks globally, and report to Foreign Ministers.

Ministers recognised the ambitious measures already undertaken to reduce greenhouse gases, noting that action needs to continue and intensify as a matter of urgency.

Ministers remain committed to long term efforts with a view to limiting effectively the increase in global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, consistent with science.

The G8 remain fully committed to the UNFCCC process; to achieving, by 2015, a new climate change agreement, applicable to all Parties, which will come into effect and be implemented from 2020; to increase mitigation ambition in the pre-2020 timeframe, including through international cooperative initiatives such as the Climate and Clean Air Coalition; and to the developed countries’ goal of mobilising jointly USD 100bn per year by 2020, from a wide variety of public and private sources, in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation.

Ministers stressed the importance of transparency in the UNFCCC process. Measurement, reporting, and verification will play a key role with respect to mitigation, adaptation, and international climate finance flows in order to measure progress towards the achievement of our goals.

The post G8 ministers highlight climate change security threat appeared first on Climate Home News.

The recession is making it harder to cope with climate change, increasing our vulnerability, according to a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey.

The poll of 1000 experts, academics and industry leaders ahead of the annual meeting in Davos identifies the ongoing financial crunch, the potential for a global governance crisis, water scarcity and a failure to adapt to climate change among the key risks facing the world.

“These global risks are essentially a health warning regarding our most critical systems,” warned Lee Howell, the editor of the report and managing director at the WEF.

“National resilience to global risks needs to be a priority so that critical systems continue to function despite a major disturbance,” added Howell.

Continuing poor economic conditions are exacerbating environmental problems as governments struggle to find the money for necessary low carbon infrastructure and climate adaptation projects, both at home and abroad.

Bushfires, drought and tropical storms have challenged government’s ability to cope with the new normal. (Source: Flickr/Electricnerve)

A new system to address the financial burden of climate loss and damage was put on the table at the UN climate talks in Doha.

Rising greenhouse gases was the top concern in the environmental category last year – this year failed climate adaptation and urban planning strategies topped the bill, although the report does conclude that continued rises in greenhouse gases is the most likely of these threats to occur.

“With the growing cost of events like Superstorm Sandy, huge threats to island nations and coastal communities, and no resolution to greenhouse gas emissions, the writing is on the wall. It is time to act,” said Axel P. Lehmann, chief risk officer at Zurich Insurance Group.

Munich Re estimated the cost of natural disasters in 2012 at $160bn, underlining the potential cost of inaction.

The top societal risk for 2013 is a water supply crisis which leapt ahead of population growth – severe droughts in 2012 reduced crop yields significantly.

The US alone generated $20bn of losses from agriculture as a result. Brazil is currently facing an energy shortage after a hot summer saw hydropower reservoirs drained by heavy air conditioning use and dry weather fail to replenish them.

The first WEF Global Risk survey in 2007 gave climate change middle billing with civil wars, the collapse of China’s economic growth and price shocks for oil and other commodities more of a concern.

WEF 2013 Top Environmental Risks

Failure of climate change adaptation 26.2%

Rising greenhouse gases 17.2%

Mismanaged urbanisation 14.9%

Persistant extreme weather 9.5%

Land use and waterway mismanagement 9.3%

The post Recession increasing global vulnerability to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

Whether or not Hurricane Sandy is the direct consequence of climate change is a moot point.

But New York has already been identified as a climate vulnerable city and the Frankenstorm could prove to be an unwelcome demonstration of weaknesses that were not expected to be exposed for some time.

It might not be as ferocious as hurricanes that have made landfall further down the US Eastern Seaboard but its 75mph winds are likely to run for two days. And a storm surge exacerbated by a high tide will replicate some of the most likely challenges predicted for New York in a world beyond the estimated safe level of warming of 2°C.

The current science on the interaction between climate change and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and storminess in general, is far from conclusive. Linking one weather event specifically to climate change simply cannot be done robustly.

What can be said on the science is that a trend is emerging. In warm years, there are more big cyclones. Therefore the warming earth will likely exhibit a growing number of these big storms.

Hurricane Sandy heads for the east coast of the US. (Source: Flickr/NASA Goddard Photo and Video)

The science behind Hurricane Sandy, is complicated further by the addition of an Arctic cold front that has wrapped itself around the hurricane. The result is a very large storm hundreds of miles across. So is New York ready for this kind of extreme weather event and a future riddled with increased storminess?

A report by Cornell University, assessing the potential changes on New York State under a scenario with 3°C of warming by 2050, said that storm surges could flood subways and other transportation tunnels within an hour. At the time of writing, New York City’s subway is shut down in anticipation of the Hurricane Sandy’s arrival.

The report also recommended moving crucial utility infrastructure to higher ground, advice that appears to have been taken with one new power plant being rebuilt four feet higher above the ground.

Earlier this year the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said that the 2005 hurricane season alone had cost the US emergency services $18 billion. Dealing with the new reality using a ‘business as usual’ mindset, was no longer working.

“We cannot afford to continue to respond to disasters and deal with the consequences under the current model. Risk that is not mitigated, that is not considered in return on investment calculations, often time steps up false economies,” said Craig Fugate FEMA’s Administrator.

What the Hudson River has done so far ; it has yet to rain #Hoboken God bless ; pray ! instagr.am/p/RWej23DSiz/

— Melissa Jimenez (@Official_Mello) October 29, 2012

Most devastating pic I’ve seen so far. Up to the top of the sea wall. Very scared for OC instagr.am/p/RWg-yrJqX7/ — Matt Hein (@The_Hein_Line) October 29, 2012

Even before the storm had reached New York, pictures on twitter showed the River Hudson spilling over and seawalls already at capacity. Paying for improvements to this infrastructure now, would help reduce the unsustainable costs referred to by Fugate.

The real question is whether New York, along with other low-lying world cities like London, Calcutta, Shanghai, Amsterdam, and Manila are prepared to invest to offset the risk of future climatic shifts and sea level changes that are coming our way.

Insurance firms, specialists in quantifying risk, are not satisfied with the progress so far and are raising prices to account for climate change.

Hurricane Katrina led to $40bn in claims. The value of property at risk from Hurricane Sandy is thought to be as high as $88bn. But insurers are unwilling to take the hits repeatedly and want to see more adaptation work by governments and business to build resilience to the new normal.

They have already begun shifting the risk of hurricanes northwards up the US coastline as storm tracks deviate from more familiar paths. In the UK insurers are looking to withhold coverage for homes in at-risk flood areas.

There are a number of options available to cities.

Building flood defences protects what is already in place, changes to planning laws can stop the areas at risk from becoming more densely populated. Some have argued that rebuilding these cities is not the right option and instead populations should be moved on.

Related articles:

One year on: Building resilience in the Horn of Africa

UNICEF: We must teach urban kids how to deal with disasters

PHOTO GALLERY: 10 cities at risk from Climate Change

An IPCC report into managing climate extremes and disasters refers to “low-regrets” measures. If a city is prepared for the worst case scenario of future sea-level rise, it will be protected from storm surges in intervening years.

In the developing world, the benefits of acting now are even greater. better defences can also mean improved irrigation, protected ecosystems, reduced spread of disease and a number of other development benefits.

The 2011 floods in Thailand have been determined to have fallen within normal ranges.

The rainfall in the build-up was not unusual, and despite claims to the contrary climate change effectively played no visible part. The problem was largely with Bangkok’s flood defences and changes in land use that gave the water nowhere to go.

The country’s government has responded with a $11bn round of improvements to its flood defences. If a city is prepared, it will be protected from all unfriendly storms and flood events, climate induced or otherwise.

RTCC Video: Nick Davidson from the Ramsar Convention describes the role mangroves can play in boosting resilience to storms

The post Hurricane Sandy: the climate change alert the USA was fearing appeared first on Climate Home News.

Asia’s mega cities must focus on sustainable growth and climate adaptation or face environmental disaster, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The ADB has warned that rapid urban growth will have serious environmental consequences and will make more people vulnerable to natural disasters.

Asia has the world’s fastest rate of urbanisation with an extra 1.1 billion people expected to be living in its cities in 30 years time.

More than half of the world’s mega cities, those with populations over 10m, are in Asia.

ADB infographic on Green Urbanisation (view the full version here)

“Asia has seen unprecedented urban population growth but this has been accompanied by immense stress on the environment,” said Changyong Rhee, chief economist, ADB.

“The challenge now is to put in place policies which will reverse that trend and facilitate the development of green technology and green urbanization.”

Yesterday, risk analysts Maplecroft named the 10 countries most at risk from climate change with eight Asian countries listed.

Bangladesh is at extreme risk to flooding due to climate change as well increased cyclone frequency and intensity. The government has earmarked $100m annually to repair flood defences and build storm shelters but it estimates that it needs $6bn a year to make itself climate resilient.

The ADB report highlights some policies attempting to cut the environmental impact of cities in the region, including vehicle congestion charging in Singapore and the removal of fossil fuel subsidies in Indonesia.

Major floods in Bangkok last year left more than 200,000 people homeless. Although that incident is not thought to be a direct result of climate change, it highlighted the city’s vulnerability to extreme weather events.

VIDEO: The IIED’s Saleemal Huq explains how Bangladesh can ‘weather-proof’ itself

The post Asian mega cities need ‘green urbanisation’ to avoid climate change disaster, warns ADB appeared first on Climate Home News.

The recent flooding in Bangkok has triggered massive investment in flood defences from the Thai government. (Source: UN/Mark Garten)

Climate-related migration could trigger future humanitarian disaster, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned.

Although many disasters cannot be exclusively linked to climate change, longer term disruptions in rainfall and temperature can often worsen the situation and erode resilience.

Seasonal monsoon floods are nothing new but the consistent severity of floods, exemplified in Thailand last year, back-up theories that climate change is reinforcing the rains.

According to new research commissioned by the ADB, this situation is likely to worsen.

“Governments should not wait to act. By taking steps now, they can reduce vulnerability, strengthen resiliency, and use migration as an adaptation tool rather than let it become an act of desperation.” said Bindu Lohani, Vice President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development, ADB.

“The environment is becoming a significant driver of migration in Asia and the Pacific as the population grows in vulnerable areas, such as low-lying coastal zones and eroding river banks,” added Lohani.

Of those 42 million displaced in the past two years, the ADB was unable to estimate how many of those were unable to return home and became permanent migrants.

While the report recognised that most movement occurred within countries, the volume of cross-border migration is anticipated to increase.

As well as recommending improved climate resilience in rural areas, the report suggests that Asia’s megacities will be the recipients of many migrants, and should prepare accordingly.

The ADB estimates the Asia-Pacific’s climate adaptation costs to be $40bn through 2050. No funding is currently assigned to migration-related issues.

The President of the Kiribati islands in the Pacific recently agreed a deal to purchase land on Fiji. While ruling out an evacuation in the short-term, Anote Tong has said that the new land is designed to provide economic resilience to climate change.

VIDEO: RTCC talks to William Lacy Swing, Director General of the International Organisation for Migration

The post Climate-linked migration affects 42 million in Asia and set to rise appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Defra report calls for more flood and coastal defences such as the Thames Flood Barrier (Source: Flickr/LeonardoEastHastings)

The net effects of climate change in the UK will be negative, however there will be some benefits, according to a new report.

The first UK Climate Change Risk Assessment released by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) identifies several benefits such as fewer deaths in winter and the possibility to grow new crops.

However it also identifies a significant increase in the cost of flooding, a rise in water scarcity and indirect damage from climate change effects overseas.

The ten main findings of the report are below:

1. Body of evidence

The latest evidence shows that the UK will have higher average temperatures in summer and winter. There will be more rainfall in the winter and less in the summer.

2. Flooding risk to increase

Increased flood events are the single greatest tangible financial cost of climate change in the UK. The report estimates that the current annual flood damage bill of £1.3 billion will soar. The projected cost for England and Wales alone will reach £2.1-12 billion by the 2080s. These figures only account for property damage.

3. Already vulnerable to extreme weather

The UK has already shown itself to be vulnerable to extreme weather events. The DEFRA reports states that even if you don’t take climate change into account, more action is needed to protect against heavy rains, storms and extreme temperatures.

4. Less winter deaths, more heatwave deaths

Deaths in related to the cold during winter will fall by 3900-24,000 by the 2050s. However, premature deaths in the summer will increase by 580-5900 by the same period.

5. Sensitive ecosystems

Ecosystem health will not fair as well as human health. While some species will benefit, many more will be negatively affected.

Seasonal drought and new diseases will impact forestry and agriculture negatively (Source: Flickr/JoostJBannerIJMuiden)

6. Not a drop to drink

Water resources will be under increasing pressure in the UK, by 2050s, 27-59 million people will live in areas suffering from water scarcity. Water efficiency action will be required.

7. New opportunities for business and agriculture

Again, while new doors open, they won’t outweigh the damage. If successful water management can be implemented there will be opportunities for new crop growth. Businesses will find new markets for products that directly serve mitigation and adaptation.

8. Indirect effects

Larger climate risks internationally will have indirect consequences for the UK such as supply chain interference, global health and political stability

9. Flexibility required

Evidence sufficient to accept identify a range of possible outcomes to inform policies. Policymakers must allow a degree of flexibility

10. More work needed

Significant gaps in evidence still exist. Defra says further work is required to understand the relationships between different climate risks and pressures such as population growth and land-use change.

The post 10 climate change lessons for the UK appeared first on Climate Home News.