Not long ago Poland embodied Europe’s worst nature-destroying tendencies. 

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After ruling for eight years, the right-wing Law and Justice party got 35% of the vote – the biggest share for a single party but not enough to stay in power. The opposition is expected to form a government by the end of December.

Robert Tomaszewski, a senior energy analyst at Warsaw-based think tank Polityka Insight told Climate Home the results, driven by a high turnout, came as a surprise to many observers and felt like “spring in the autumn”.

But while Tomaszewski and Forum Energii analyst Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk said that the new government was likely to speed up Poland’s renewable roll-out and cooperate better with the rest of Europe, it was unlikely to take on the country’s powerful coal mining unions directly.

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The outgoing Polish government, led by the Law and Justice party, has been a brake on the European Union’s climate ambition, opposing several measures.

In June, it threatened to take the European Union to court to try and stop its phase-out of polluting vehicles and other climate laws. The new government is likely to withdraw this legal challenge, Tomaszewski and Gawlikowska-Fyk said.

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Polish ministers and state-owned utilities also launched a misinformation campaign against the EU’s climate policies, writing opinion pieces and putting up billboards blaming the EU’s carbon pricing system for the rising cost of energy.

The head of E3G’s Brussels office Manon Dufour told Climate Home that the change in government would raise the chances of the EU’s 2040 emissions reduction target being ambitious. The EU’s scientific advisers have said it should be 90-95% below 1990 levels.

No coal fight

Tomaszewski and Gawlikowska-Fyk said that the outgoing government had taken some steps to encourage renewables and the new government was likely to go further, working with the EU and private investors.

Tomaszewski said the new government was likely to change the rules around onshore wind turbines, to make them easier to build.

Gawlikowska-Fyk said that investment was needed to integrate these renewables into Poland’s energy system. “It’s grids, grids, grids,” she said.

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On the other hand neither expected the new government to take on the coal mining unions. Local and European elections are scheduled for next year and the government will not want miners  to protest during the election campaign, they said.

Poland is among Europe’s most coal-dependent countries – both for electricity and for heating – and under a deal signed with the mining unions in 2020 does not plan to stop coal mining until 2049.

Tomaszewski said that, while it would cause a political headache, pushing this date forward wouldn’t help the climate because market forces would phase out coal way before 2049 anyway.

Gawlikowska-Fyk agreed. “There’s an awareness in Poland that 2049 is impossible,” she said, as the EU’s carbon trading scheme means licences to pollute will become scarce and expensive for coal power plants.

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On billboards and newspapers across Poland, the TGPE trade association attacked climate policies using a figure widely criticised by experts as misleading.

The message reads: “The European Union’s climate tax is as much as 60% of energy production costs. EU climate politics = expensive energy/high prices”.

It has been amplified by the nationalist government and many of its anti-EU supporters, provoking a rebuttal from the European Commission.

In an article for Euractiv, prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote: “The [ETS] price increase is out of control and hitting the household budgets of EU citizens.”

The Polish parliament called for the EU to suspend and reform the ETS.

Conservative journalist Tomasz Sommer tweeted: “Green anti-Polish lobbying has led to the energy poverty of many Poles. Why did no one stop these people?”

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Energy analysts accused government of misleading the public and energy companies of trying to pass the buck for rising energy prices.

While the price of a carbon allowance for polluting power generators on the EU ETS tripled in 2021, think-tank Forum Energii said that cost makes up 23% not 60% of a household bill. It would be less if the country had moved faster from coal to renewables.

Robert Tomaszewski, energy analyst at Polityka Insight, said: “The utilities, I think they just want to move the blame from them and from the government and push it to the European Union.”

Energy prices have shot up in Poland and across Europe, causing widespread hardship. “I’m turning off lights after my children and thinking about changing bulbs,” said Tomaszewski.

“We all feel there is an energy crisis which has been building up for several months. It’s difficult not to see it and difficult not to be a part of it,” said Warsaw-based energy analyst Zofia Wetmanska.

Polish electricity day-ahead daily prices (Zlotys/Mwh)(Photo: Energy Instrat)

Wetmanska said the 60% figure was not incorrect as that is the cost faced by coal generators but was “very misleading” to imply it was the main driver of high prices. She said: “It is placed out of context and the end user cannot be expected to understand all the technicalities.”

European Commission vice-president and climate lead Frans Timmermans wrote an article for Polish website Onet which opened (in Polish): “Let’s be clear: EU policy is NOT responsible for 60% of your energy bill. Some people use such a number, distorting the meaning of the discussion.”

The price of an EU carbon permit in euros (Photo: Trading Economics)

The emissions trading scheme was set up in 2005. While Poland has developed a renewable energy sector, led by wind, it still relied on coal for 71% of electricity in 2021 – the most of any EU country.

As coal is the most polluting fuel, Poland’s energy consumers have to proportionally pay the most to the ETS.

“It’s lack of preparedness”, said Wetmanska. “All the predictions said that these prices will increase and yet the government did nothing to decarbonise the sector.”

Poland remains dependent on coal (light blue) (Photo: IEA/Screenshot)

The Law and Justice party won elections in 2015 promising to defend the coal mining region of Silesia.

In government, Tomaszewski said, governing politicians watered down this coal commitment “when they met reality” but have restricted the growth of the onshore wind industry.

Revenue from the sale of pollution permits goes to the Polish government. As Timmermans pointed out in his article for Onet, the Polish government made 28bn zlotys ($7bn) from the ETS in 2021.

“Using only half of this amount, the Polish government could grant, last year, almost 8,000 zlotys ($2,000) to every Polish family that cannot make ends meet,” the Dutchman said.

The government has spent money reducing bills through its “anti inflation shield” policies but it has not linked this to the ETS funds which go into its general budget.

Tomaszewski warned that, in Poland and elsewhere, if energy transition costs ordinary people money then “populist politicans will be able to weaponize this in a way that can transform the policy of the European Union”.

He added that the EU’s goal to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 could lead to a further war of words between Warsaw and Brussels. “This is the real risk we are facing,” he said.

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The proposal by the ministry of state assets is part of negotiations between the government and energy companies to restructure the ailing coal sector.

Under the plan, 70 lignite coal units, which generated more than half of Poland’s electricity in 2020, will be purchased by the state and handed over to a single state-run National Energy Security Agency (NABE).

In a statement, the ministry said this would enable a “gradual and long-term transformation of the power sector” by replacing coal with low-carbon and green sources. In 2020, Poland’s share of electricity generated from coal dropped below 70% for the first time.

The merger of coal assets into a single entity is designed to give three state-owned energy companies – PGE, Enea and Tauron – fiscal space to develop clean energy sources.

Jacek Sasin, Poland’s deputy prime minister and minister of state assets, said banks were becoming reluctant to finance companies with carbon-intensive assets in their portfolio. He added pollution allowances required by the European Union to burn coal had become more expensive than the coal itself.

Sasin said the EU’s climate policy and goal to cut emissions at least 55% by 2030, compared with 1990, had created “a huge challenge for the Polish power sector”.

Poland’s council of ministers are expected to discuss the proposal before a broad social and inter-ministerial consultation.

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Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, an analyst at Forum Energii, told Climate Home News that the proposal was “a step in the right direction” if it enables energy companies to invest in clean energy.

But the plan lacks critical details about the need for a coal phase-out, she said, leaving out all climate considerations.

Pawel Czyżak, head of energy and climate research at the Warsaw-based Instrat Foundation, told Climate Home that without a coal exit date for energy generation, taxpayers’ money could be used to “run these plants forever”, a prospect he described as “worrying”.

“The government is completely neglecting the climate angle. Its energy strategy and plans are still incompatible with the EU’s climate policy,” he said.

The proposal would require approval from the European Commission under the union’s state aid rules.

Czyżak said this was a critical moment for Brussels to force Warsaw to agree a coal exit date. An outright refusal of the plan could be used by Poland to blame the EU for rising electricity prices, he warned.

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At the same time, the Polish government is seeking approval from the Commission for providing state aid to its coal mining sector, with an agreement between the government and mining unions tipped to be finalised this week.

The government has previously agreed to continue to subsidise coal production until 2049 – an exit date campaigners and experts say is far too late.

“The government will be fighting on two fronts and I believe it will be impossible to get approval for both from the Commission. It will be no nice Sunday talk,” Robert Tomaszewski, a senior energy analyst at Warsaw-based think tank Polityka Insight, told Climate Home.

Tomaszewski said Brussels was unlikely to green light Poland’s restructuring proposal for coal plants without a date to shut down old and inefficient plants.

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Under current rules, old coal plants in Poland are eligible for support under an energy capacity agreement approved by the European Commission. But the arrangement is coming to an end on 1 July 2025, when most existing plants will loose critical funding.

Without it, old and inefficient plants are anticipated to run at high losses. Around half of Poland’s coal fleet were operating with negative margins in 2020.

“Inevitably, NABE will have to close them down,” Tomaszewski said – a sudden shut down which will force investments in alternative energy sources to plug a looming capacity gap in the power system.

In February, the government approved a plan that aims to reduce coal’s share in the power mix to 56% by 2030 through deployment of offshore wind and onshore wind and solar energy.

Recent analysis by the Instrat Foundation found that the share of coal-generated electricity in Poland could decrease from the current 70% to just 13% in 2030, without compromising the country’s energy security.

Under this scenario, 76% of the electricity demand could be generated by renewable energy sources by 2030 and burning coal in power plants would end in 2035.

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EU leaders are expected to agree on cutting collective emissions by at least 55% from 1990 levels, up from 40% currently, at a critical two-day Council meeting starting Thursday.

Member states are under pressure to approve the new target ahead of a virtual climate ambition summit on Saturday co-hosted by the UN, the UK and France to celebrate five years since the Paris Agreement was signed.

“The EU’s leadership and competitiveness are at stake,” said Manon Dufour, head of think tank E3G’s office in Brussels, adding that EU Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen could not arrive empty-handed at the summit.

While the proposed climate target is relatively uncontroversial, it risks becoming a victim of heated negotiations over a €1.8 trillion financial package, which includes €750 billion in coronavirus recovery funds.

The European Commission has proposed making access to the funds conditional on respecting the EU’s rule of law principles.

The clause could cost Poland and Hungary billions of euros, with both countries accused of backsliding on democratic standards enshrined in the EU’s founding treaties, including on the independence of the judicial system, the media and other institutions.

They have threatened to veto the budget, which would hold up funds to support countries meet the enhanced 2030 climate target. This includes support for communities dependent on the fossil fuel industry to transition to new sectors of employment, which would benefit workers in both countries.

“It’s possible that if there is no deal on the rule of law, there is no deal on the climate target,” Dufour told Climate Home News.

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In a joint declaration, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki and his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán said they respected common European values but that neither country “will accept any proposal that is deemed unacceptable by the other”.

Writing in Euractiv, Morawiecki said the current proposal threatened “the future of the entire union” at “a time of great test for Europe”.

They are heading for a showdown with more liberal member states and Commission officials on Thursday.

“The level of negotiations between Brussels and Warsaw has never been as high as it is now,” said Justyna Piszczatowska, a Polish financial journalist specialising in the energy sector.

The absence of an EU announcement at Saturday’s ambition summit would dampen momentum for climate action and be deeply embarrassing for the union.

Both Von der Leyen and German chancellor Angela Merkel, who holds the EU Council’s rotating presidency, have made achieving a climate deal at the meeting a top priority. The increased 2030 target would put the EU on a credible path towards its 2050 climate neutrality goal and drive green investments for the next decade.

“It will be a very bad look for the EU not to agree on a new target if the EU fails where the UK has succeeded,” Dufour said, citing the UK’s recent pledge to deepen emissions cuts to 68% between 1990 and 2030.

Marcel Beukeboom, climate envoy for the Netherlands, told Climate Home the EU “wants to shine” on the global stage as the incoming US administration is about to reverse four years of retreat of climate action under Donald Trump.

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As Poland and Hungary focus their political capital on fighting the conditionality to accessing EU funds, observers fear it will leave little time to negotiate on the climate issues.

In private, European negotiators have expressed confidence a resolution can be found and leaders will approve enhanced 2030 ambition.

The latest draft on the 2030 climate target presented to member states on Monday, recommended the EU Council adopt a “binding” 2030 target of “net domestic reduction of at least 55%” from 1990 level – reflecting the Commission’s proposal earlier this year.

While there is widespread support for cutting emissions by 55%, including from eastern European countries, Poland, Czechia and Hungary have pushed back on the inclusion of “at least” in the target and called for additional financial support to meet it.

In an annotated version of the Council’s draft conclusion, seen by Climate Home, the three countries demand the extension of EU funds to support their energy transition beyond 2027 and full flexibility over how the money is spent.

They argue nuclear energy and methane gas should be recognised as “mid-term low carbon transition” energy sources.

Meanwhile, a small alliance of progressive member states are opposing the “net” in the target, which would count carbon sucked from the atmosphere and stored by forests and soils towards meeting the 55% reduction goal. This could reduce real emissions cuts needed from energy and industrial sectors by five or more percentage points, according to some estimates.

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PGE, which is majority state-owned, revealed plans on Monday to transfer its coal mines and power stations to a new state-owned entity. The strategy depends on the Polish government agreeing to manage the coal business and the European Commission giving approval for state aid, which are both uncertain.

“Within a decade, the PGE Group will become a completely different company,” said PGE president Wojciech Dąbrowski in a statement on the new strategy.

Currently, more than 80% of PGE’s electricity generation is based on coal. This has made it difficult for the company to attract financing as many banks have vowed not to support coal.

In response to an investor question, Dąbrowski reportedly said that if it did not separate its coal assets, the business would go bankrupt in a year and a half.

By cutting coal loose, the company is aiming to generate 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and 100% by 2050.

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Analysts praised PGE’s enthusiasm for renewables but said the company should take responsibility for closing down its coal assets, not pass them to another arm of the state.

“It means that this coal phase-out and shutting down coal power plants and lignite mines will be on Polish taxpayers,” said Robert Tomaszewski, energy analyst at Polityka Insight. “We’re going to pay for it.”

Alexsandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, an analyst with Warsaw-based Forum Energii, added: “PGE is just saying ‘OK we don’t want this coal anymore, let the Polish state carry the issue of coal phase-out’. This shouldn’t be the case. PGE should take responsibility because these are their assets.”

Greenpeace characterised it as “just a transfer of dirty assets from one pocket to another” and as “an escape from responsibility for the real transformation necessary to counteract the climate crisis”.

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The company also plans to invest in fossil gas which its president Wojciech Dąbrowski sees as a “transition fuel” for the next 20 years. Gas is less polluting than coal when burned, but methane leaked in the extraction process can worsen its climate impact.

Tomaszewski said PGE’s CEO told him that the company hopes to transfer the gas plants to hydrogen by around 2040. Hydrogen can be produced with renewable energy.

Following this announcement, PGE’s shares rose. The firm’s ambition was praised by Karl Zammit-Maempel, head of energy at Cop26 climate action champions, and Polish climate minister Michal Kurtyka.

Very impressive to see new strategy from Polish utility PGE, with 85% emission reduction aim by 2030, big expansion of renewable energy and net zero by 2050 #RaceToZero https://t.co/0NKArEzFYo

— Karl Zammit-Maempel (@climatekarlzm) October 19, 2020

Dave Jones, from the Ember think tank, told Climate Home that, given PGE is historically a coal company, this announcement is “really inspiring” and Gawlikowska-Fyk called it a “bold decarbonisation strategy”.

Tomaszewski said that “in Polish circumstances” it was extraordinary for a state-owned company to declare climate neutrality before the government. Poland is the only EU country not aiming to reach net zero by 2050.

The Polish government and coal mining unions recently agreed to stop mining hard coal by 2049. The effect of this on PGE is limited, as it mainly mines lignite, a lower quality, more polluting type of coal.

Tomaszewski said that lignite mines were likely to close down “much faster” than hard coal because existing concessions are nearly exhausted.

He added that other energy utilities in Poland would transition from coal to renewables. “It is inevitable,” he said. “If they want to borrow money in a cheap way, they have to do this.”

This article was amended to clarify Karl Zammit-Maempel’s role.

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The agreement was struck on Friday in the city Katowice, in the coal-rich southern region of Silesia, following several days of negotiations. It comes after hundreds of miners joined strikes this week by staying underground after their shifts in protest against threatened mine closures.

This the first time Poland has put a timeline on ending coal, which accounts for around 75% of the country’s electricity generation.

The agreement sets out deadlines for the completion of hard coal production in individual mines and provides social guarantees to workers. The government is also due to draw a social contract with the sector which will directly influence its energy policy, the document says.

“We signed the liquidation of one of the most important industries in the history of the Republic of Poland,” Dominik Kolorz, head of the Solidarity trade union in Silesia, said of the deal.

“But we also have a fair and socially agreed path,” tweeted Artur Soboń, deputy minister of state assets who was appointed by the prime minister to negotiate the deal on behalf of government.

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The agreement between the government and the unions has been welcomed by analysts as a step forward but one that does not reflect the rapidly weakening case for investment in coal.

Poland has repeatedly said it could not commit to implement the EU-wide 2050  climate neutrality goal, citing the social and economic cost of the transition.

Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, an analyst at Forum Energii, told Climate Home News: “For the first time Poland has a date for coal withdrawal. At least it’s a starting point for negotiations. But 2049 is far too late. Everybody knows there won’t be place for coal in 2049.”

And until then, the government said it will continue to subsidise coal production, despite the industry suffering from falling demand, cheaper competition and accumulated financial losses.

Under the agreement, the government has promised to seek consent from the European Commission to provide state aid “for financing the current production, in order to ensure the stability of the hard coal mining companies”.

The document states the agreement won’t come into force until the Commission approves the plan.

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“It’s the most blatant fossil fuel subsidy out there,” Dave Jones, senior electricity analyst at think tank Ember, told CHN. “How was the taxpayer represented during these secret talks? It’s them that have just signed off a blank cheque.”

Robert Tomaszewski, a senior energy analyst at Warsaw-based think tank Polityka Insight, said the European Commission is unlikely to agree to Poland handing out state aid to keep its coal mines open.

“It’s a tactical ceasefire” which is buying government time to present a more detailed transition plan for coal mines, he told CHN.

Coal mining phase-out “will happen much faster,” said Tomaszewski, adding hard coal mines in Silesia are expected to close in the next 15 years because of the ongoing decarbonisation of the energy sector.

Earlier this month, the Polish government published a draft energy policy to 2040 forecasting coal’s share of electricity generation will fall to 37-56% in 2030.

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Tomasz Chruszczow, a veteran of the climate negotiations and former climate champion during UN talks in Poland in 2018, told CHN  the deal was “historic” and the timing for phase-out “realistic”.

“It’s a very important psychological step forward. It changes the tone of the discussion. The devil is in the details and I’m sure there are many devils here,” he said, adding the deal enabled a conversation about transforming the economy to take place.

“It’s also a very important message to all European member states and an important signal to the world that no country in the EU is running away from what has been agreed” on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

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While the Polish government announced a bailout for its ailing coal mining sector at home, prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki watered down climate conditions on EU funds during a marathon meeting in Brussels.

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, EU leaders agreed on the structure of a historic €1 trillion budget to 2027 and a €750 billion recovery package from Covid-19 – 30% of which is to be spent on climate-related projects. The details still need to be thrashed out by European lawmakers and ministers.

The deal follows five days of acrimonious debate. The key battlegrounds were the proportion of grants versus loans in the recovery package and conditions on climate goals and the rule of law.

The final agreement links the budget and recovery package to the EU commitment to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and to contribute to the 2030 emissions target, which EU leaders agreed “will be updated before the end of the year”.

Johanna Lehne, a policy advisor at think tank E3G who has been following the EU Council meeting, told Climate Home News, the deal “paves a way for a green and resilient recovery,” but “it also lost some of its climate credentials along the way”.

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A Just Transition Fund, to help regions reliant on polluting industries diversify their economies, was cut from a proposed €37.5 billion to €17.5 billion.

EU Council leader Charles Michel sought to make the support conditional on member states committing to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

However under the final deal Poland, the only holdout against net zero, is eligible for 50% of its allocated funds without changing its climate stance.

Prime minister Morawiecki claimed it as a win, while promising Poland was “building [its] plan to achieve carbon neutrality”.

Poland will receive a total of €125 billion in grants from EU funds over the next seven years, Morawiecki said – calling the agreement “the best possible deal for the whole of Europe”.

Robert Tomaszewski, a senior energy analyst at Warsaw-based think tank Polityka Insight, agreed it was a Polish victory. But he warned the government was “losing diplomatic capital” by resisting climate commitments.

Far from exiting coal, the Polish ministry of state assets announced plans on Friday to throw the industry a lifeline. It will create a $33 million strategic reserve of hard coal – propping up demand for coal mining, which it said had been plunged into a “very serious crisis”.

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For Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, an analyst at Forum Energii, Warsaw was simply buying time “to find a way to sell the target domestically” to a polarised government and powerful mining unions.

The country faces an even bigger challenge if the EU approves to a proposal to increase its 2030 emissions reduction target from 40% to 50-55%. “That would mean huge changes in just 10 years and no place for coal. Poland has no idea of how to get there,” she said.

The agreement among EU leaders will now be debated and voted by the European Parliament – with climate observers hoping European lawmakers will strengthen the agreement’s climate provisions.

Rebekka Popp, a researcher for the environmental think tank E3G, told CHN lawmakers will have to address the risk of Poland “still being able to access a share of the Just Transition Fund to prop up a coal industry that is fast losing competitiveness”.

Polish coal production has been suffering from falling demand, cheaper competition and accumulated financial losses. Covid-19 outbreaks in the coal mines deepened the sector’s crisis.

Covid-19 outbreak in Polish coal mines heaps further pain on struggling sector

With unwanted Polish hard coal piling up in large reserves, the government said it had brokered a deal with utility companies to purchase coal from state-run Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG), Poland’s largest coal company. It also promised to present a restructuring plan to the mining unions on Thursday which will give “guarantees on the functioning of profitable units in the longer term”.

Tomaszewski said the government was “avoiding making tough decisions” on winding down domestic coal mining at a time of increased tensions with the unions. The announcement hinted that it could be readying to “tell part of the hard truth” that some mines will need to close, he added.

Warsaw is also working on a plan to transform the country’s energy sector which it said would protect jobs “while guaranteeing the stable functioning of the energy and mining industries for the next decades”.

According to leaked documents obtained by Polityka Insight, the plan would see Poland’s largest state-owned power companies – PGE, Tauron and Enea – merge into a single group. A new National Energy Security Agency (Nabe) would take over their coal-fired power plants, allowing the government to manage their gradual closure.

Tomaszewski said the move would send “a positive signal” to markets and companies to invest in clean power sources and “increase the pace of the energy transition” in Poland. But such a plan would need have to go back to Brussels for approval by the European Commission under state aid rules.

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A Covid-19 outbreak among miners in the southern region of Silesia is the latest scourge on an industry suffering from falling demand, cheaper competition and accumulated financial losses.

More than 16,900 coronavirus cases have been reported across Poland. The mining region of Silesia recorded the highest number of infections with around 4,000 cases – 1,450 of them miners and members of their family, according to the government.

The sector is now facing criticism for not doing enough to protect workers.

Polish health minister Łukasz Szumowski said on Tuesday Silesia’s coal mines had become hotspot for the virus and mass testing of miners was under way.

“It’s not like all Silesia has a problem. If we subtract the mines, the horizontal transmission is not much,” he said.

State-run Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG), Poland’s largest coal company, was forced to suspend activity at three of its eight mines until 17 May at the earliest because of the outbreak.

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State assets minister Jacek Sasin told Polish radio that more mines could face temporary closure to contain the virus.

Robert Tomaszewski, a senior energy analyst at Warsaw-based think tank Polityka Insight, said the suspension of activity enabled Poland to reduce production at a time when the market is saturated.

Production of Polish coal has been falling in past decades, unable to compete with cheaper imported coal from Russia or Columbia.

Investments in solar and offshore wind have also seen coal’s share in the energy mix fall to the lowest level in history last year, making up 74% of electricity generation.

As utility companies opt for cost-effective alternatives, Polish hard coal is piling up in large reserves. At the end of March, 7.6 million tonnes were being stored by the mines, according to data by Poland’s Industrial Development Agency.

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A mild winter and the coronavirus-induced economic slowdown depressed coal demand even further.

“There is too much coal on the market and Covid-19 creates an opportunity to decrease production and to support the transformation of the entire energy sector,” Tomaszewski told Climate Home News.

The decline of Poland’s coal mining sector is “irreversible”, he added. “It’s not going to happen very soon but it’s going to happen. The wind has changed and it’s blowing very much in favour of renewables.”

Following weeks of bitter negotiations, trade unions at PGG agreed to reduce miners’ work and pay by 20% for the month of May, to allow the company to claim government support.

The Solidarity trade union wrote to the government warning that without state aid, the industry would collapse.

The government promised to announce a plan for the coal mining sector before the end of June – which Tomaszewski said could be a “tremendous” opportunity to restructure the sector at a time when the unions have been weakened.

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But the timetable clashes with an ongoing presidential election campaign.

The government had hoped to press ahead with the election planned on 10 May through postal votes, despite measures to contain the spread of the virus, but the ballot was called off five days before the vote. A new election date is now expected between the end of June and the middle of July.

President Andrzej Duda, who is seeking re-election, is an ally of the ruling right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS), which sees coal still supplying 60% of the country’s electricity by 2030. Poland has yet to endorse an EU-wide objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

Miners have traditionally supported the PiS and analysts don’t believe the party will announce a plan for the sector’s decline before the election. Instead, the PiS is more likely to announce “restructuring” measures.

This opens a window for some hard coal mines operating at a loss to close, Marta Anczewska, a climate and energy policy officer at WWF Poland, told CHN, anticipating the government “will make sure that companies still provide coal to the domestic market but not in a way that generates losses”.

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Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, an analyst with Warsaw-based Forum Energii, warned that despite the fragility of the coal mining sector, “there is strong willingness to have power supply from domestic coal in Poland. It’s perceived as a question of energy security.”

And yet, she argued the pandemic had created another “warning signal” for the urgent need to plan the power sector’s diversification. “We need to keep mines that are profitable and concentrate on the optimisation of the sector,” she said.

The Polish government has repeatedly overestimated the outlook for domestic coal mines. Production is declining much faster than overall coal consumption, said Wojciech Kość, a Polish journalist who was written extensively about the country’s coal industry.

In 2004, the government forecast  the country would produce up to 89 million tonnes of coal this year. But in 2019, domestic production fell below 62 million tonnes.

“Domestic coal production will go down way faster than the government is expecting and it will come back at them really fast in the next few years,” said Kość.

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The ruling dealt a blow to the 1GW Ostrołęka C project, a joint venture between utilities Enea and Energa backed by the government.

It is a major win for Client Earth. The environmental law firm had bought shares in Enea and filed a lawsuit against the project on the grounds it posed an “unacceptable” financial risk to investors.

“This is an excellent result for Enea’s shareholders and for the climate,” Client Earth lawyer Peter Barnett said. “The plant is a stranded asset in the making, facing clear and well-documented financial risks.

“Companies and their directors are legally responsible for managing climate-related risks and face potential liability if they fail to do so. Enea and Energa should lay this project to rest before it incurs any further costs to the companies and their shareholders.”

Turkey: supreme court blocks coal plant, as wave of new projects stalls

Revived in 2016, the €1.2 billion project was part of the government’s plan to ensure the country’s energy security. It was presented as a necessary supplement for renewable energies that will partly replace a number of old coal power plants due to be taken offline by 2020.

With a controlling stake in Enea, the Polish government pushed through company approval despite concerns raised about the project’s economic viability. In September 2018, 22% of non-government shareholders voted against starting construction and 58% abstained. At project partner Energa, with 37% opposed the project.

The €1 trillion global asset manager Legal & General Investment Management, which is invested in both Enea and Energa, said that its clients faced “very high financial risks due to its uncertain policy support, rising carbon prices, unreliable capacity payments and threat of new technologies in energy generation,” Reuters reported at the time.

Client Earth claimed its case against Enea was a world first, in the way it forced the company to reckon with climate risk. As carbon-cutting regulations kick in and clean energy sources become competitive on price, it argued, coal generation is an increasingly bad bet.

“Pursuing this project puts an unnecessary burden on the state and taxpayers and is in no way necessary for national energy security,” said Marcin Stoczkiewicz, head of Client Earth Poland.

“Enea and Energa need to look at what the future of energy is in Poland. There is vast employment potential in cheaper, domestic renewables.”

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The reason is largely one of economic self-interest. Understanding it can provide lessons for how other nations of the world can be incentivized to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Poland is a participant in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). That means it imposes a carbon price on its power producers, heavy manufacturers, and intra-European flights, that is currently around $25 per ton of CO2.

Several countries have higher carbon prices but most tend to exempt large emitters such as power producers. Only the UK and British Columbia have carbon prices that broadly cover electricity producers and are higher than in Poland.

EU reaches coal subsidy phase-out deal – with caveat for Poland

This is all the more striking given Poland’s political and economic profile. The country derives 80% of its electricity from coal. It is governed by the Law and Justice Party, elected on a platform to support coal. Strong unions allow coal miners to wield an unusual amount of political influence. For the government, coal is also a matter of national security as it offers an alternative to natural gas piped from Russia. In part thanks to its domestic coal resources, Poland has the third lowest energy import dependency in the EU.

Poland did not adopt carbon pricing on its own. Instead, it joined the EU ETS because it had to do so if it wanted to be a member of the European Union. To reap the benefits of the EU, including the European single market, and its free movement of goods, Poland had to transpose all European legislation, including any climate policies, into national law.

And Poland was not alone. Ten countries joined the EU in 2004: the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, and Poland. Since then, three more have become members: Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia. Before any of these nations joined the EU, the EU ETS had been negotiated by 15 mostly Western and Northern EU countries (likely one of the reasons behind the successful implementation of the carbon market).

EU Allowance carbon price (Source: Sandbag)

The fact that the EU spread carbon pricing to Poland and the other twelve most recent EU members is perhaps one of the greatest climate policy victories, but it is rarely, if ever, talked about. To understand its significance, let us make the assumption (reasonable, to a close approximation) that none of the aforementioned countries would have implemented carbon pricing on their own. Summing up the countries’ EU ETS emissions, we find that their inclusion in the EU effectively placed a carbon price price on around 430 million tons of CO2 per year, according to Refinitiv data as of 2017. This is on par with the total annual greenhouse gas emissions of California.

Admittedly, there are diverse reasons a country joins the EU. But trade benefits and foreign investment are usually among the top rationales. Thus, this European experience demonstrates a powerful strategy for climate diplomacy: the use of international economic policy to spur climate policy adoption.

Cop24: Countries breathe life into the Paris climate agreement

There are diverse ways to leverage foreign economic policy for progress on climate mitigation. One tactic may be to link membership in trade agreements on climate policy implementation, mimicking the EU approach. Another, yet untested approach, could be to levy border carbon tariffs on nations with less ambitious climate policy, making sure to design such policies for legal durability.

This brand of climate diplomacy can be categorized under the notion of carbon clubs: small groups of nations that coordinate climate policies and share exclusive membership perks. Viewed from this perspective, the EU is, inadvertently, the largest and most closely-knit carbon club. As scholars like David Victor have argued, this type to climate diplomacy can be a more effective way of encouraging policy adoption in reluctant nations than the universal, voluntary, and pledge-and-review nature of the Paris Agreement.

As another round of climate negotiations ends in Katowice, with countries off-track toward the goals of the Paris Agreement, new and complementary strategies for climate diplomacy are needed. The case of the EU and Poland suggests that carbon clubs, bound by exclusive economic perks, can be an effective pathway toward climate policy implementation in reluctant nations.

Emil Dimantchev is a senior research associate at the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of CEEPR. The author thanks Michael Mehling (MIT CEEPR) for comments on this article.

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The statement, signed by the Chicago-based Heartland Institute and the trade union Solidarity was released as UN climate talks took place in Katowice, the centre of Poland’s coal heartland region of Silesia.

The talks, known as Cop24, are widely considered to be the most important climate meeting since the 2015 summit in Paris and will aim to finalise the rulebook to implement the Paris Agreement.

In the statement, the trade union Solidarity and the Heartland Institute express “skepticism of the assertions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the world stands at the edge of a climate catastrophe”.

On their patron saint’s day, Polish miners pray for a decent future

In October, the IPCC released a report saying the world had 12 years to reduce its emissions by 45% and take “transformative and unprecedented” measures to hold global warming to 1.5C. Beyond that threshold, it warned of serious impacts including a virtual wipe-out of coral reefs.

The Solidarity-Heartland statement adds that “neither organisation opposes the goal of clean air nor supports the elimination of coal from the world’s energy portfolio” and calls on “an end to the war on science and scientists by powerful state-backed forces”.

It is signed by James Taylor, senior fellow at the Heartland Institute, Jaroslaw Grzesik, the chairman of Solidarity’s energy and mining secretariat and Dominik Kolorz, the president of the Solidarity in the Silesian region.

The statement was issued after Solidarity representatives met members from the Heartland Institute on the fringe of Cop24 in Katowice. Both parties agreed to “begin working together more closely to advance sound, science-based public policy” as well as “educating the public and policymakers on climate policy” with a focus on educating young people.

Solidarity said it had translated the Heartland Institute’s latest report into Polish and was “very satisfied by the new science and policy presentations”.

Poland calls for ‘solidarity’ with industrial workers in climate talks

On Tuesday, the Heartland Institute held an event in Katowice city centre claiming that the fact global warming is caused by increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was “climate totalitarianism” propaganda invented by “the socialist internationalist green movement”.

DeSmog UK attempted to report on the event but was denied accreditation by the Heartland Institute.

Only 10 people are reported to have attended the event, which was live-streamed on Youtube and had been watched by about 50 people at the time of writing, according to the video platform.

The alliance between Solidarity and the Heartland Institute will come as a blow to the Polish government, which has so far balanced urging progress on finalising the Paris rulebook with reluctance to significantly reduce the share of coal in its energy mix.

Poland relies on coal for 80% of its electricity and a significant share of household heating. A draft government proposal could see coal’s share of power generation reduced to 60% by 2030.

At the start of the conference, Polish president Andrzej Duda said climate change needs to be tackled, but not at the expense of the coal workers who made the Silesia region thrive as an industrial centre.

This article was produced by DeSmog UK

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It is an important holiday in Zabrze, a town 20km from Katowice where UN talks are being held, heralded by a brass band at dawn. But it is a bittersweet celebration since the Makoszowy coal mine closed in 2016, says Andrzej Chwiluk, head of the ZZG trade union for the mine, through an interpreter.

St Barbara represents a peaceful death, he explains – important to an industry where workplace accidents can be fatal. Does he worry about lung disease? He later mentions his own respiratory problems – but Chwiluk is defensive: “Miners are not responsible for the smog… it is politicians that created this situation.”

On the eve of the festivities, we speak in his wood-clad office. It is adorned with football trophies, union flags and a no-smoking sign that – judging from the aroma – is purely ornamental.

At the Cop24 climate summit taking place in Katowice, the Polish presidency is touting a political declaration on the “just transition”, promising not to leave workers behind in the shift to a clean economy.

To climate campaigners, the Polish government neglects the “transition” part: away from mining, towards green jobs. Ministers insist coal will be used for decades to come, regardless of EU climate policies or international treaties.

Here in Zabrze, it’s the justice aspect that remains unfamiliar to Chwiluk and his colleagues. Warsaw ordered the closure of the Makoszowy mine in 2016, despite – they say – good-faith efforts to improve its profitability. More than 3,000 people lost their jobs; miners were offered transfers to other mines, but administrative staff, many of them women in their 50s and 60s, had few prospects. They estimate 20-30% of workers have left the town.

Polish mining unionists in ceremonial dress

NGO Bankwatch has organised a tour with half a dozen journalists. It was due to include a visit to the closed mine, but permission was withdrawn at the last minute over “security concerns”. “The company thinks you are eco-terrorists,” says Chwiluk with a chuckle.

Our intentions are non-violent, but cultural differences with our hosts become clear at lunchtime when half of the group turns out to be vegetarian, eschewing the traditional meal of veal and dumplings. What about the (chicken) broth? Apologetic laughter and head-shaking. The kitchen at the mining social club graciously produces a meat-free alternative.

Still, Chwiluk gives the media a warm welcome. “I believe we have to speak loudly about these problems so that whoever comes next will not make the same mistakes,” he says.

Many of the union talking points are identical to those of the industry: domestic mining is important to energy security; renewables are unreliable; with carbon capture and storage, coal can be clean. One of the four former miners to join us for lunch objects vigorously to wind turbines, seeing them as a threat to his pet pigeons.

Transforming the energy system is possible. The UK, where Climate Home News is based, reduced coal generation from 42% of the electricity mix to 7% in just five years.

Chwiluk’s response needs no translation: “Arthur Scargill”. Citing the prominent British mining union leader of the 1980s, he points out the UK’s coal transition also came at a social cost. Some communities, which he has visited in solidarity, have yet to recover from losing their mines.

Now its core business has been gutted, much of ZZG’s activity in the town is outreach to schools. The former miners dress up in uniforms complete with medals, sabres and ceremonial hats, to talk about the industry’s history.

Drawings by pre-school children in Zabrze, around the closure of the nearby coal mine. “Tato nie płacz” means “Dad don’t cry”

Many of the children have a family member in the industry and were affected by the mine closure. Some drawings by pre-schoolers are produced. “Dad, don’t cry,” reads the message on one.

They teach the children about their heritage, but these are not recruitment drives: even the mining unionists do not expect the younger generation to follow in their footsteps. “The work ethic in this region is one of the strongest in the whole country,” says Chwiluk. “Miners are very good workers, very well-disciplined, they are honest.”

Nobody, it seems, is having an honest conversation with the miners about the speed of change implied by international climate goals. Chwiluk reacts with astonishment to analysis finding the EU should phase out coal by 2030 to align with the Paris Agreement. “I cannot agree with what you say.” He accepts the end of the coal era will come, but sees 2050 as a realistic deadline.

In the absence of a positive vision for green jobs, the unionists’ prayer to St Barbara is to keep their – dangerous, dirty, but honest – industry alive.

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The previous day six activists had climbed the chimney of Europe’s largest coal power plant in Belchatow, located in the centre of the country, to highlight the high levels of pollution. They spent 40 hours perched at the top of the 180-metre chimney.

In a letter addressed to the head of PGE, Greenpeace Poland demanded that the coal utility giant phase out coal and pivot to renewables by 2030 at the latest. The environmental organization also urged PGE to drop plans to expand fossil fuel projects, including the Zloczew and Gubin-Brody lignite mines and the extension of the opencast mine in Turow. Should PGE fail to comply, Greenpeace warned that it would resort to legal action.

“We will not stand by and watch pollution devastate our planet without taking action,” Paweł Szypulski said. “After protesting at the plant, we have written to PGE asking the coal utility to do what is needed to avoid a climate catastrophe. If PGE does not respond to these requests, we will take them to court.”

Contacted by Climate Home News, PGE did not respond to a request for comment.

“We need urgent and brave action, but state-controlled energy companies continue to invest in fossil fuels, because of irresponsible politicians shaping Polish energy policy,” Szypulski said.

Poland overwhelmingly relies on coal for its energy, with 80% of its electricity currently generated by it. The government’s draft 2040 energy strategy, published on 23 November, projects retiring 17GW existing coal-fired plants and installing 4GW of onshore wind by 2035.

Coal would remain the dominant source of power supply, with around 60% of generation fuelled by lignite in 2030.

The right-wing Law and Justice government has come under increasing pressure from environmental organizations over its support for coal, as it prepares to host the UN climate summit in Katowice from 3 until 15 December. Regularly repeating “Poland stands on coal”, the government has named PGE and coal rival Tauron as sponsors of Cop24.

Environmentalists continue to pile pressure worldwide for governments to phase out the dirtiest of fossil fuels. The activist network 350.org is partnering with eight anti-coal campaigns in Senegal, Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa, Thailand, Australia,  Turkey and Germany.

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Krzysztof Tchórzewski’s ministry defended the country’s heavy reliance on the polluting fuel, in a statement published on Monday. In 2017, coal generated 78% of electricity.

Yet a spokesperson for the Cop24 presidency, which sits in the environment ministry, said in a terse email that did not represent the Polish government position.

The conservative Tchórzewski is already locked in dispute with the prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki over the government’s “war on smog”.

Morawiecki and technology minister Jadwiga Emilewicz are promoting tougher quality standards on coal used in home heating, to clean up polluted air. But Tchórzewski has frustrated their efforts, watering down the proposals and delaying action.

The energy minister is also a strong advocate for Ostrołęka C, a controversial new coal plant proposed in northeastern Poland.

Poland’s coal miners: ‘EU climate proposals terrify us’

In the latest statement, Tchórzewski’s ministry declared its opposition to raising EU ambition on climate change, arguing this would harm the Polish economy.

At an international level, it said the fight against climate change should “preserve the competitiveness of national economies and their sovereignty in shaping energy mixes”.

While noting the potential of renewables, electric vehicles and nuclear, the statement maintained “clean coal” and “low-carbon” natural gas had a continued role.

“The minister of energy is in favour of the evolutionary transformation of the power sector, instead of drastic restrictions on the use of fossil fuels,” it said, citing energy security and affordability concerns.

Others see a greener future for Poland’s energy. Think-tank Forum Energii has mapped out four scenarios, ranging from maintaining coal dominance to 73% renewable power by 2050.

Over the period studied, the whole-system costs were similar, with renewables delivering slightly cheaper electricity. Diversifying into renewables would also reduce reliance on fuel imports, the study found.

Hungary wants to end coal power by 2030

A poll commissioned by Greenpeace Poland last year showed clean energy was popular, with 74% supporting a shift from coal to renewables. “Investing in renewables is the only way to keep energy bills low for Poles,” said campaigner Paweł Szypulski. “Staying with coal is absolutely not in line with the Paris Agreement and not in line with scientific knowledge and not in line with what Polish people would like to see.”

The EU needs to phase out coal power by 2030 to meet the temperature goal in the Paris Agreement, according to Climate Analytics.

The European Commission is due to release its proposal for a long-term climate strategy next week. Ten member states have called for this to include a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050. There is also a live debate over whether to strengthen the 2030 emissions target in the coming year.

Warsaw has long been the most vocal opponent of climate regulations in Brussels, backed by the Visegrad Group of central European countries. However its traditional ally Hungary has signalled plans to shut its last coal plant by 2030 and replace it with a clean energy hub.

Michał Kurtyka, a junior energy minister appointed to preside over Cop24, has highlighted the transition already under way in host city Katowice. The region is home to two coal mines, down from 14 in the industry’s 1980s peak.

He has a mammoth technical task to oversee at Cop24: the completion of detailed rules to implement the Paris Agreement.

Kurtyka is also expected to promote three political statements. These will focus on the role of forests and electric vehicles in tackling climate change, and call for “a decent future” for fossil fuel workers affected by the shift to a low carbon economy.

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Plaintiff Client Earth argues the 1GW Ostrołęka C power station poses an “indefensible” financial risk, as rising EU carbon prices and cheap renewables threaten the project’s profitability. The NGO bought a small number of shares in the company to give itself a legal avenue to challenge the project.

The lawsuit puts the Polish government’s support for coal under the spotlight, weeks before the country is due to host UN climate talks.

Poland’s government recently brought forward its timeline for reducing reliance on coal, anticipating it will fall from around 80% of electricity production today to 50% of the mix by 2040.

Ostrołęka C “sits oddly” with this trajectory, said Peter Barnett, a litigation lawyer with Client Earth. “It is a little unclear to us why there is so much momentum in favour of a plant that seems to be undermining clean energy aims and risking shareholder value.”

Client Earth uses a range of legal strategies to hold companies and governments to account for their environmental impacts. “This plant is particularly interesting because there is very widespread market concern about it,” said Barnett, adding that similar arguments could apply elsewhere: “These are the sorts of climate-related risks and opportunities that boards of directors around the world are required by their duties to shareholders to take into account.”

Carbon Tracker: Poland’s ‘last coal power plant’ depends on subsidies

Poland’s treasury has a controlling stake in Enea. Energy minister Krzysztof Tchórzewski attended a “first shovel” ceremony at Ostrołęka on 16 October, saying the plant was of “significant importance for the energy security of this region”.

Minority shareholders are not convinced, however, with 58% abstaining from a special vote called last month on starting construction and 22% opposing the motion. Opposition was even higher at project partner Energa, where 37% of non-government investors voted against going ahead.

Legal & General, a major European investor, has “serious concerns” about the project, Reuters reported. It does not have the option to simply sell its shares, as it is passively invested through an index-linked fund, said the company’s head of sustainability Meryam Omi.

“We don’t believe the companies should proceed with this project until they can provide us with reassuring evidence of its financial viability and the role it will play in meeting the energy security and the carbon targets in Poland and Europe,” said Omi.

Enea and Energa have reiterated their commitment to the project, but have a provision in their agreement to pull out before construction starts if it looks unprofitable.

Poland’s coal miners: ‘EU climate proposals terrify us’

The project depends heavily on government subsidies to turn a profit, which Brussels may block, according to think-tank Carbon Tracker.

“This could well be the last coal plant constructed in Poland and if it gets built, it is destined to be a financial and economic disaster,” said senior analyst Matthew Gray.

Coal miners are politically influential in Poland. But the energy mix is changing fast: the country has installed 6GW of wind power, overtaking Denmark.

Other Polish utilities including PGE and Tauron are pivoting towards renewable energy, as EU carbon costs rise and clean technology costs fall.

The case against Enea, lodged with a regional court in Poznań, is expected to take about a year to process. It is part of a wave of climate litigation with a broad spectrum of arguments, scales and targets.

New York last week launched a landmark suit against Exxon Mobil, following a three-year investigation, alleging it lied to shareholders about the risks climate action posed to the oil major’s value.

Meanwhile the controversial inauguration of conservative judge Brett Kavanaugh at the US Supreme Court dealt a blow to 21 young plaintiffs suing the federal government for stronger climate action.

The Supreme Court hit pause on their case, which was due to be heard in an Oregon district court on Monday. The government is calling for the top court in the land to use a rare legal device to quash the case entirely.

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As preparations build for UN talks in Katowice, Cop24 president and Polish deputy energy minister Michał Kurtyka told Climate Home News the government was drafting political statements on electro-mobility, carbon forestry projects and the ‘just transition’ – a policy to ensure that the shift to green energy does not hurt the workers and communities that rely on outmoded industries, such as coal. CHN has not seen the contents of the drafts.

Poland has invested heavily in electric vehicles, with Kurtyka leading the effort. Since 2017, a law on electro-mobility and alternative fuels offers multiple rewards to e-car drivers, such as the possibility to drive in bus lanes or escape excise tax. Prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has set a goal to put one million electric vehicles on Poland’s roads by 2025.

Counting the contribution of forests to carbon reduction has long been a priority for Poland. In 2016, former environment minister Jan Szyszko said forests store carbon “as least expensively and most effectively as possible“.

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The country’s powerful miners unions have also pushed for Poland to ensure the challenges faced by coal communities are recognised at the conference. Poland is one of the largest users and producers of coal in Europe.

Political statements are a common device in the UN process. They can propose solutions to specific problems, form new commissions or simply commit governments to put new attention on an issue.

They sit alongside the formal negotiations, which will be geared towards drawing up the rules for the Paris climate deal and scaling up national commitments to fight climate change, said Kurtyka.

“We will enter into a cycle of ambition which was designed in the Paris Agreement,” he said.

In the past, Polish government figures have been less enthusiastic about the need to build on the promises made to the 2015 global climate pact.

In February, Tomasz Chruszczow, Poland’s special envoy to the UN on climate change, brushed off “calls for ambition [that] bring nothing”.

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The Ostrołęka C project is part of the Polish government’s plan to ensure the country’s energy security. It is presented as a necessary supplement for renewable energies that will partly replace a number of old inefficient coal power plants that are due to be taken offline by 2020.

But the project is highly dependent on state support for fossil fuels, which is currently being phased out at EU level in an effort to cut air pollution and curb emissions of global warming gases.

State aid for coal in EU firing line

A reform of so-called “capacity mechanisms” under consideration in Europe would exclude state aid for plants emitting more than 550g of CO2 per kilowatt hour – a  move that would de facto rule out government support for coal as well as some inefficient gas power plants.

“This could well be the last coal plant constructed in Poland and if it gets built, it is destined to be a financial and economic disaster,” said Matthew Gray, a senior analyst at Carbon Tracker.

“Assuming no capacity market payments, if Ostrołęka C is built and not closed prematurely it could generate a negative Net Present Value of €1.7bn,” he added.

Details of the capacity market reform are still being discussed by EU legislators, with a final agreement expected in November or December this year. Poland has already softened the impact of the reform by winning a number of adjustments to the timeline for phasing out state aid during preliminary talks with other EU member states in December last year.

However, the final EU measures are still to be decided and could still bite. “Under the terms of the provision currently being negotiated, even if these capacity payments are not prohibited, they could be reduced each year from 2025 – and potentially terminated in 2030,” Carbon Tracker said. And stricter measures might still be adopted in the end, it added.

Cop24: Unions tell Poland to push coal as UN climate host

Ostrołęka C is a joint venture between two Polish state-controlled companies, Energa SA and Enea SA. Construction suffered a four-year delay when the management board of Energa suspended the start of the works in 2012, citing financing difficulties. The project was revived in 2016 when a new board meeting repealed the decision and announced plans to seek a strategic investor or co-investor to ease the financial burden.

In a statement released in May 2016, Energa acknowledged that Ostrołęka C “will require the existence of legal and systemic mechanisms” to support “new investments in the conventional power sector.” This will involve “creating a well-run capacity market in Poland,” it added.

But capacity payments beyond 2030 are extremely uncertain, Gray pointed out, saying this is expected to chip away at the plant’s long-run profitability. “On a long-run marginal cost basis, Ostrołęka C will likely be one of the most expensive plants,” he said, pointing out that the planned coal power plant will get the same 15-year price as the 1-year price of existing capacity.

“Given the proposed project is almost entirely dependent on capacity market payments, which appear far from guaranteed, we believe Ostrołęka C risks destroying shareholder value unnecessarily,” Gray said.

The Ostrołęka C project represents a major investment for Energa and Enea. “As an illustration, the overnight capital cost of Ostrołęka C represents around 70% and 65% of the market capitalisation of Energa and Enea, respectively,” Gray said.

Poland’s last coal power plant has become a recurrent headache for Energa. The company has called a management board meeting for 3 September where the sole question on the agenda is whether a shareholder vote should be held on commencing construction of Ostrołęka C.

The meeting will take place amid high turnover at the Polish state-owned company. Acting President Alicja Barbara Klimiuk is Energa’s sixth president in two years and ninth president in 40 months, Carbon Tracker said, pointing to media speculation that this is due to concerns about Ostrołęka C’s economic viability.

“Stable cash flow” expected from Polish auction

Adama Kasprzyka, a spokesperson for the Energa Group, admitted that the capacity market is “a significant factor in our cash flow forecasts” but added that the company expected “the majority of the value” to be generated through the electricity market.

“Contrary to the findings of the report, we do not believe the scenario of Ostrołęka C burning cash without capacity payment (i.e. gross margin not sufficient to cover fixed costs) is possible,” Kasprzyka told EURACTIV in e-mailed comments.

A Polish auction for capacity schemes is scheduled later this year, before the proposed electricity market regulation takes effect, Kasprzyka indicated, saying: “We assume that rights acquired through concluded capacity contracts will be respected throughout the 15 year period.”

“Therefore, we assume that the capacity payments will constitute a stable cash flow for the auction winners,” Kasprzyka said.

The spokesperson did acknowledge that Ostrołęka C “will have a higher marginal cost of capacity compared to existing power plants”. But the plant’s increased efficiency “allows it to successfully compete in the auction,” Kasprzyka said.

This article was produced by Euractiv

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For the first time, a top trades union representative was invited to address the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, an annual meeting of 30-35 climate officials from around the world.

Co-hosts Germany and Poland stressed the importance of keeping public support for the shift to a carbon neutral society.

“We want climate action which is not a wrecking ball but can be safe for the future and good for the economy,” said German environment minister Svenja Schulze at a press conference, adding in her speech to delegates: “Very few people elect their governments for promising particularly ambitious climate policy… we need strong economies.”

Acknowledging Germany will most likely miss its 2020 emissions reduction target, Schulze promoted the recently launched coal phase-out commission as a way to restore its international reputation.

“Nobody can afford to squander the trust that allowed us to get an agreement in Paris,” she said. “Germany’s goal has always been to be a pioneer in climate policy… I will work very hard to attain this goal.”

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Michał Kurtyka, president-elect of the Cop24 UN climate talks in Katowice, Poland, this December welcomed the focus on social justice.

“In the time of major changes it is our duty to guide our people through a just transition of our societies and economies,” he said. “Solidarity is an important value for Poles and I would like it to be a strong value for Cop24.”

Germany and Poland are the EU’s biggest consumers of coal, which has shaped the cultural identity and economies of mining regions. Trade unions and industry groups are typically resistant to mine and power station closures.

Eventually, Schulze noted, countries like South Africa and India will also have to shift away from the polluting fuel to meet international climate goals.

Samantha Smith of the International Trade Union Confederation’s Just Transition Centre said with appropriate consultation and engagement, ambitious climate action can get workers’ support.

“[Climate policy] needs to be accompanied by making new jobs and economic growth, otherwise it risks losing the support of communities and workers,” she said.

She cited Alberta, Canada, which is using revenue from a carbon tax to secure pensions, unemployment benefits and structural investment in the phase-out of coal power by 2030.

In New York State, there is a plan to actively create climate-friendly jobs through energy efficiency and offshore windpower targets, she added. “From the perspective of unions, these are all good, skilled jobs which are also about building a New York State with very low emissions.”

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Michał Kurtyka will be president of COP24, despite a claim from former environment minister Jan Szyszko the role was rightfully his.

That was confirmed by UN climate chief Patricia Espinosa at a press conference on Wednesday, in response to a question from Climate Home News.

On the sidelines of interim negotiations in Bonn, Espinosa said she had received official notification from Poland’s ministry of foreign affairs of their choice to lead the critical December summit in Katowice. “What we are facing now is the usual scenario is Michał Kurtyka will be elected on the first day of COP24.”

Poland will take over the presidency from Fiji in Katowice. The Polish premiership announced Kurtyka’s appointment on Friday. The deputy energy minister then met Espinosa in Bonn on Sunday.

But Szyszko issued a statement disputing the legality of the decision. He had been lined up as president while still a member of government at the last UN climate summit in November.

Minister #Szyszko nie zamierza się pożegnać z kierowaniem szczytem klimatycznym w Katowicach #COP24 @MinSrodowiska i @MorawieckiM mają zatem poważny problem…
Przypomnijmy: COP ma budżet >100 mln zł. pic.twitter.com/JWuE6Mhk33

— Michał Żmihorski (@MZmihorski) April 28, 2018

Szyszko argued the Eastern European bloc nominated him personally, not the institution he represented – and it was a breach of UN rules for the Polish government to choose someone else without consultation.

While not engaging with Szyszko’s technical argument, Espinosa effectively quashed his claim on the title.

The UN climate secretariat told CHN on Tuesday that it would seek legal advice on Szyszko’s claim. The results of that advice have not been shared.

Profile: Poland appoints deputy minister to run biggest climate talks since Paris

Marcin Korolec, another Polish former minister and president of the 2013 UN climate summit, was scathing about Szyszko’s last-ditch bid to retain the post.

“Minister Szyszko walks along the UN corridors and claims that he is the one who runs the COP in Katowice. He owns it, or what?” Korolec said in a tweet, which was later deleted.

COP19 president and fmr environment minister of Poland: “Minister Szyszko walks along the UN corridors and claims that he is the one who runs the COP in Katowice. He owns it, or what?” This tweet was deleted. What’s this all about? Read more here: https://t.co/ATcSjh3Vjw pic.twitter.com/Jh0qIksi9E

— Karl Mathiesen (@KarlMathiesen) May 2, 2018

Krzysztof Bolesta, head of research at the PolitykaInsight think tank and a former advisor to Korolec, tweeted: “In my opinion, it is causing a lot of embarrassment.”

Poland’s energy ministry did not respond to an emailed request for comment.

Meeting of @PEspinosaC with @KurtykaMichal, President-Designate #COP24 in #Bonn.
Photo: @UNFCCC pic.twitter.com/oZhNEZhnd4

— COP24 (@COP24) April 29, 2018

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Tomasz Chruszczow, Poland’s top climate negotiator and 2018 UN climate champion, said a push to increase national pledges to stop the world warming more than 1.5C should not be the focus for the world’s climate negotiators when they meet in the Polish city of Katowice in December.

Instead, Chruszczow called for other states to slow down and concentrate on agreeing the rulebook for the Paris Agreement.

Ratification of the accord had moved “at the speed of light” and now, “we need an implementation package to be adopted in Katowice,” he said. “Calls for ambition bring nothing.”

“Instead of being driven by enthusiasm, let’s be driven by responsible common sense which is about poverty eradication, combatting hunger and security of energy supplies,” he said.

COP24: UN climate conference 2018 heads to heartland of Polish coal

Chruszczow was appointed Poland’s “high level climate champion” at the most recent UN talks in Bonn. In this role he will represent the global community and be responsible for an agenda that encourages business and civil society to take greater action on cutting carbon.

Yet he remains sceptical about how fast the world can go. A UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) review of actions needed to limit global warming to 1.5C – due out this year – would “probably not” result in new action from governments, he said. 

Tomasz Chruszczow, centre, is Poland’s top climate negotiator and 2018 UN climate champion (Photo: UN Climate Change)

This is despite most nations agreeing they need to increase their pledges to the Paris Agreement to hold warming below the critical 2C barrier – and ensure that the more challenging 1.5C goal was cleaved to as closely as possible.

Chruszczow suggested this strategy had already been overtaken by events. “If we want the world to stay within safe limits of temperature range, I would risk saying we are already beyond the safe limits,” he told Climate Home News.

Poland has long stood apart from mainstream European ambition to clean up the environment. It remains coal dependent, opposed to onshore wind power, resistant to emissions cuts and obstructive towards wider environmental protections.

But Chruszczow argues that enthusiastic declarations by countries such as Germany – which junked its 2020 climate target to little fanfare last month – are worth little when compared with Poland’s “achievements so far”.

“I wish everyone was as ambitious as we are,” he said, pointing to the emissions drop that followed the shuttering of Poland’s heavy industries after 1989.

Poland: ‘Cannot afford’ share of EU 2030 climate target

Poland’s environment ministry goes further, describing the country as “one of the world leaders in climate action”, for its hosting of three UN climate conferences in a decade. 

When asked if Poland backed the IPCC view of human activity as the key driver of climate change though, the ministry was vague.

In an emailed statement to Climate Home News, a spokesman said: “We have no doubt that we must combat climate change. Its effects cause, among other things, economic losses and also threaten the health and lives of people. It is therefore in the interests of all of us, regardless of the disputes over the causes of this phenomenon, to work towards reducing climate change.”

The comments were originally attributed to the new environment minister, Henryk Kowalczyk, but withdrawn, reattributed, and then withdrawn again. The ministry declined several requests to clarify what position they took on the “dispute”.

Kowalczyk, a low-profile treasury minister allied with the deposed prime minister Beata Szydlo, was appointed last month, replacing long-serving minister Jan Szyszko.

Poland: Coal cash grab attacked by UK, France, Germany

Szyszko, a forester by trade, had dangerously isolated Poland within the EU with a bullish insistence on logging in the ancient Bialowieza forest. Kowalczyk has since rowed back this policy.

“Kowalczyk is doing everything to make a deescalation with Brussels,” said Robert Tomaszewski, a senior energy analyst at the Polityka Insight think tank. “It’s his main job.” 

Polityka Insight now expects a continuation of Szyszko’s environment policy but “with better PR and better relations with Brussels”. 

The environment ministry spokesman said: “We want good cooperation with Brussels in all areas where such cooperation is necessary.”

Surprisingly, the question of whether Kowalczyk will foster that cooperation by chairing the COP24 summit is still open. Szyszko, who was the president of the 5th UN climate conference in 1999, was presumed to be returning to the post this year. If he were replaced, Tomaszewski said, it would be “pretty big chaos”.

Overall, Poland’s environment ministry is seen as having been caught up in a power shift under the new far right Law and Justice Party government.

“Climate policy has been outsourced – or taken over – by the ministry of energy because, from the government’s perspective, it affects coal plants and power plants,” said Aleksander Sniegocki, the climate project manager at Poland’s WiseEuropa think tank. 

“At some point in 2017, energy just became the key ministry for negotiating EU climate regulations.”

With a weak environment minister, a mid-term commitment to coal and gas power, and a government torn between greenish gestures abroad and zero-sum energy patriotism at home, Poland’s hosting of the critical 2018 climate talks may veer off-green, said Tomaszewski.

“They are going to say decarbonisation is happening. We’re planning to use more natural gas, build a Baltic pipeline and import more from Norway,” he predicted. 

“And they will use Katowice as a platform to defend coal and say we are going to make it clean. And they will talk about forests and CO2. And everyone will be happy, the same as at COP19, five years ago in Warsaw.”

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The proposed measures are going through Poland’s legislative process as the southern city of Katowice – located in the country’s coal heartland – prepares to host the annual UN climate talks this December.

The draft bill, which sets out specific regulations for this year’s climate talks, known as COP24, was passed by the lower house of the Polish parliament on 10 January. On Friday, the senate passed the bill almost unanimously with only three MPs abstaining.

The text provides a raft of initiatives to “ensure safety and public order”. This includes a ban on all spontaneous gatherings in Katowice between 26 November and 16 December, spanning the entire period of the annual UN climate talks.

The clause suggests that only demonstrations previously registered with the local authority in Katowice will be allowed to go ahead – effectively preventing environmental activists reacting to events unfolding during talks to stage protests in the city. The ban is not expected to apply to demonstrations organised inside the conference centre, which have to be approved by the conferences’ organising committee.

UN climate conference 2018: Heads to heartland of Polish coal

The draft bill also allows police to “collect, obtain, process and use information, including personal data about people registered as participants of the COP24 conference or cooperating with its organisation, without the knowledge and consent of the people involved”. This would include volunteers and people employed to help with the running of the conference.

In order to register for the talks, participants including government officials, NGOs, business representatives, journalists and members of civil society have to provide the UN with their full name, date of birth, nationality, a copy of their passport or another identification document, the dates they will attend the conference and an email address.

But the UN’s online registration website states that participants’ identification number, date of birth and name “will not be made available to anyone outside of the UNFCCC [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]”. So it is unclear exactly how the police will access this information.

Last year, just over 19,000 people attended the climate talks in Bonn and close to 50,000 people attended the talks in Paris in 2015, according to UN data.

The UNFCCC has not replied to a request for comment at the time of publication.

The Polish president Andrzej Duda still has to sign the bill in order for it to become law. But one Polish activist, who preferred not to be named, told DeSmog UK it was “very unlikely” for the bill to be rejected since there had been so little opposition to it in Parliament.

This year’s climate talks in Poland are due to be pivotal for the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement. Countries are expected to finalise the accord’s rulebook and start the process of a global stocktake to ramp out ambition to reduce emissions.

The choice of the city of Katowice, which is home to the EU’s largest coal company Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG), has angered some environmental campaigners who denounce Poland’s reluctance to fully engage in the UN process while still being influenced by a strong domestic coal industry.

Hoda Baraka, from 350.org, called the draft bill “a worrying development” but added it was “not unexpected or unplanned for”. She told DeSmog UK that the pending decision was “a step in the wrong direction” at a time when “civil society groups are increasingly squeezed out of the UNFCCC process and their rights are infringed”.

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She added: “In many of the countries that groups like 350.org operate, ongoing restrictions on civil society, above and beyond the UNFCCC, is a reality that we are challenged with on a daily basis – but these clampdowns will not stop a resilient and innovative climate movement.”

The proposed regulations for the climate talks come as the Polish government’s ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice party have been strongly criticised by the European Commission for breaching the EU’s democratic values.

Since the party came into power in 2015, it has embarked on a series of reforms of the judiciary, the civil service, state media and other areas of public life, which have been widely denounced by human rights campaigners.

The new laws include an expansion of police and secret services surveillance powers, making it easier to access electronic and digital data, and a crackdown on freedom of assembly.

Environmental campaigners have also recently found themselves in an open conflict with the Polish government over the logging of the ancient Unesco-listed forest Białowieża, located on Poland’s eastern border with Belarus.

The government said it gave permission for the logging to go ahead because of damage caused by a spruce bark beetle infestation and to fight the risk of forest fires. But the claims have been denounced as a cover for commercial activities by activists.

Greenpeace activists staged numerous protests and previously chained themselves to the woodcutting equipment to stop the logging. The government’s draft bill restricting rights during the next climate talks has been seen by some campaigners as another step to stifle environmental activists in Poland.

Katarzyna Guzek, from Greenpeace Poland, told DeSmog UK the draft bill was “yet another step towards a process of limiting possibilities of civil society to manifest their opinion”.

“It is a part of a bigger trend of making life of NGO‘s as well as citizens harder when it comes to demonstrating their disagreement with the government,” she said.

Spokesman for the UNFCCC Nick Nuttall said in a statement that since the 9/11 attack, “it has been practice of UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) to share some information on participants when requested by governments hosting climate conferences”.

He added the UN “trust” the information is used “for the purposes for which it is shared”, which Nuttall said was “the timely processing of visa applications”.

The UNFCCC admitted that the online registration portal for delegates is “out of date”, adding: “We will be updating it to reflect that some data is shared with host governments.”

While declining to comment on Poland’s legal move, Nuttall said the UNFCCC “supports the right of peaceful protests and demonstrations whithin and outside conferences”. He also said the UN recognised that host governments “may need to make security and public safety judgements outside the official UN zones”.

This article was produced by DeSmog UK and updated on 25/01 with the UNFCCC statement

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The town of Katowice – founded on coal mining – is in the heart of the Upper Silesian coal basin and plays host to one of the European mining industry’s biggest trade fairs.

The choice of town was announced by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on the day US president Donald Trump was expected to leave the Paris climate agreement.

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Poland has long been a reluctant participant in the UN process, dragged into an ambitious EU negotiating bloc but influenced by the powerful domestic coal industry.

Climate Home revealed this week that the country is now part of a concerted effort by eastern European countries to water down the EU laws that would help keep the promises made under the accord.

The presidency of a COP is vital for ensuring that the diplomacy runs smoothly. In Paris, the French presidency was one of the pivotal factors in coercing 197 nations to sign up to a deal that forced all to make deep compromises.

UNFCCC chair Patricia Espinosa said in a statement that governments were expected to reach “key milestones” at the 2018 conference.

Countries will come together to take stock of their progress towards the targets they agreed three years before in Paris. Those targets are too weak to avert dangerous climate change and the Polish conference will be an opportunity for them to be upgraded.

Katowice will be host venue of @UN Climate Conference #COP24 in 2018: https://t.co/cWrbYDUjtY Received letter from Env. Min. Jan Szysko pic.twitter.com/ra5oaMno5S

— Patricia Espinosa C. (@PEspinosaC) June 1, 2017

The presidency of climate conferences rotates through regions. As the largest of the eastern European group of countries, Poland has often played host to UNFCCC meetings. Poznań in 2008 and Warsaw in 2013. It also presided over the Bonn conference in 1999.

Corporate and industry involvement in climate talks has been a tense issue this year, with developing countries and environment groups challenging the access granted to corporations that may seek to work against climate action.

Jesse Bragg of Corporate Accountability International has been the spokesperson for the NGO side of that campaign. On Thursday he likened the location of the 2018 COP to holding a public health convention in Winston Salem – the heart of tobacco country in the US south.

“Katowice is at the centre of Poland’s continued addiction to the dirtiest of fossil fuels, and home to Europe’s largest coal mining corporation,” said Bragg.

Last time the Poles played host, the government hosted a parallel conference nearby called the International Coal and Climate Summit – run with the World Coal Association. Espinosa’s predecessor Christiana Figueres gave that event a key note address, to the dismay of those who see coal as antithetical to a safe climate.

Bragg said: “As we saw in Warsaw, the global coal industry, led by the World Coal Association, will see this decision as a green light to push its false solutions and further position the industry as a stakeholder in the solution – to the detriment of the UNFCCC process and the Paris Agreement itself.”

The World Coal Association said it had not begun planning for the 2018 conference.

In 2018, the conference goes deep into Europe’s coal heartland. Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG), the Polish Mining Group, is headquartered just 2km from the convention centre where the 24th Conference of Parties (COP24) will likely take place in late 2018.

PGG is the largest coal company in the EU. It was formed in 2016 as an agglomeration of struggling Polish coal miners. It was projected at the time to produce 28 million tonnes per year.

But Maciej Nowicki, former Minister of the Environment of the Republic of Poland and COP president in Poznań, said Katowice was “already on the way to transform from the strictly coal-dependent region to the modern city offering new ways of sustainable development”.

“The just transition is happening regardless the obstacles and I hope that in the next years we will observe even broader and more efficient cooperation of local authorities, citizens and all parties focused on the climate friendly future of that region, Poland and the world,” said Nowicki.

Urszula Stefanowicz, a climate expert from the Climate Coalition, said the selection was symbolic of the need to transform the economy.

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Polish archeologists had thought the ancient tombs destroyed by agriculture taking place intensively in Wielkopolska for generations. To the untrained eye, they are easy to miss: nothing but long, narrow earthen hills covered up in vegetation.

These 15 burial mounds, 100 metres long, were saved by their location in a forested area. Over the centuries, they only lost their stone surrounds – likely collected and used for construction. Otherwise intact, they tell the extraordinary story of the culture which buried its dead in them.

“It was probably only by using oxen (rather, aurochs, the ancestor of the ox) that these people were able to transport the huge stones, weighing many tonnes and as high as 1-2 metres, used for building the megalithic tombs,” said Jacek Wierzbicki, archaeologist from the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan. “This was an enormous effort, comparable only to constructing the pyramids.

“Of course this kind of tomb was built not for everyone, but probably only for the most outstanding leaders, the tribal chiefs, the priests.”

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The eastern people in the Funnelbeaker culture inhabiting contemporary Poland’s territories were the first to use ox-driven hoes to till the soil, explained Wierzbicki. Their successful farming techniques allowed an agriculture-based economic model to spread all the way north to Scandinavia, 5,000 years ago.

The earliest known image of what is thought to be a four-wheeled vehicle is etched on the Bronocice pot, a ceramic vase from that era discovered in Poland.

Mining threat

The ancient tombs were discovered in an archaeological survey last year. They are located right where private company ZE PAK,  the second largest lignite-based electricity producer in Poland, plans to develop an opencast lignite mine, Ościsłowo. Lignite is a low quality type of brown coal.

The Poznan regional authority in charge of preserving monuments said it was considering giving protected status to the 15 tombs, but that it would decide only after field research “once weather conditions allow it”. Protected status would be an obstacle to the mine project.

Meanwhile, ZE PAK can continue to apply for permits it needs to mine. At the end of last year, the Ministry of Agriculture agreed to the building of the mine on lands currently used for farming.

Campaigners argue the company must reassess the environmental impact of the project in light of the archeological discovery. The Poznan regional environmental protection agency, which is evaluating the plans, said there was no need for a new assessment.

A spokesperson for ZE PAK told national television TVN: “If in the future it turns out that archaeological sites are located on mining territory, we will act in accordance with the law.”

Local opposition

ZE PAK operates four power plants in Wielkopolska, fuelled by lignite from local mines whose locations shift over time as resources are exhausted. The company says it needs a new pit at Ościsłowo to make up for dwindling resources elsewhere. But some fear that Ościsłowo will hurt farming and tourism in the region.

Two of the three mayors of localities on the planned perimeter of Ościsłowo support the mine. The third is holding out.

Grzegorz Skowroński, the mayor of Wilczyń, argues Ościsłowo “would kill off” Lake Wilczyńskie, one of the five local lakes that people depend on for fishing and tourism. Skowroński commissioned a film showing the gradual depletion of water in the five lakes: a sequence of time lapses comparing what the lakes looked like years ago as opposed to now offers a striking sense of the damage.

The ancient tombs in the village of Góry, on the eastern edge of Wilczyń, which gives the mayor leverage in his opposition to the company.

Nie ma jeziora from Filip Springer on Vimeo.

In January, tens of locals from Wilczyń and other localities close to the planned location of the mine organised a protest in Poznan (the main town in Wielkopolska) asking authorities to halt the mine plans and protect the archeological heritage instead.

“The mines are like a cancer eating out into the lands and lakes of Wielkopolska,” said Jósef Drazgowski, an anti-coal activist and owner of a holiday house on the edges of another drying lake, Ostrowski.

“It’s not possible that this place (the ancient tombs) are destroyed or forgotten, our descendants would never forgive us,” added Drazgowski. “The whole world should instead learn about this cemetery as soon as possible.”

Report: Court blocks Polish coal plant, in victory for campaigners

The Polish government, run by nationalist party Law and Justice, does not have a clear position about the future of Wielkopolska.

On the one hand, Law and Justice is an enthusiastic supporter of coal, which its leaders see as part of the future of Poland over the next decades, despite EU climate policies and the Paris Agreement signed by Warsaw which call for the phase out of the use of this dirty fossil fuel.

On the other hand, the party’s nationalistic line may make it difficult to defend the destruction of historical treasures that prove the European-wide importance of a culture inhabiting ancient Polish lands.

Long-term resistance to new mining finds some sympathy even in central government. Speaking during a conference about mining in Wielkopolska in February, undersecretary of state in the Ministry of Environment Mariusz Gajda told environmentalists: “I am completely on your side: open-pit mining is a catastrophe. We are even ready to change the law to protect local communities from the negative impact of open-pit mining.”

This article was supported by Foundation DY-OPMN

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The coal-guzzling nation surprised many when it revealed the fundraising initiative last week, given its hostility to renewable energy.

It is seeking to raise between €500 million and €1bn in the first quarter of 2017 to finance green energy, transport, farming and forestry initiatives.

As its roadshow kicked off this week, Warsaw-based business newspaper Parkiet reported potential investors were sceptical. One suggested the money could benefit the coal sector, which supplies 85% of the country’s power.

But a government spokesperson told Climate Home: “Under no circumstances the proceeds from the green bonds can be used to buy coal assets.”

An independent review from consultancy Sustainalytics described the framework for using the funds as “robust, credible, and transparent”.

What is a green bond?

A bond is a way of raising finance. A government, bank or corporation borrows money for a fixed period of time. It pays the lender – which could be an individual or institutional investor like a pension fund – a fixed or variable interest rate each year.

The global bond market is worth more than US$100 trillion.

Green bonds are a small but growing sub-sector of the market that channel this source of finance towards environmentally friendly projects. Climate Bonds Initiative counts US$77.5bn worth of labelled green bonds issued in 2016.

Sean Kidney, chief executive of the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI), admitted he was surprised to see Poland leading on this small and growing sector of the bond market.

It is in a race with France, Luxembourg and Nigeria to release the world’s first sovereign green bond – from a government, as opposed to development bank or company.

CBI develops and monitors standards for labelling bonds as “green” in different sectors, to align with international climate goals.

While the Polish government is not using CBI’s framework, Kidney said it appeared to have “done everything the right way”.

“What we need is to see a pipeline [of green projects] and to be sure it is not just a marketing exercise,” he told Climate Home. “Investors don’t like to invest in something unless there is more of it.”

Report: Court blocks Polish coal plant, in victory for campaigners

Dave Jones, energy analyst at think-tank Sandbag, called on the bank overseeing the share issue to make sure it was used for its stated purpose.

“It is exciting that governments are now becoming interested in green bonds,” he said. “However, green bonds cannot be seen as a mechanism for merely moving money around to refund existing projects. HSBC, as leaders of this process, have a responsibility to ensure this injection of money will fund genuinely new and genuinely green investments in Poland.”

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Judges in Gdansk revoked permits for Polnoc power station on Tuesday, ruling that the district authority had not adequately consulted on the project.

It is the latest in a series of legal challenges to an energy policy that climate advocates fear will lock the Eastern European country into a polluting future.

“The problem is that the completely new power plant will keep us in coal energy for the next 35-40 years,” said Malgorzata Smolak, lawyer with Client Earth, which brought the case in partnership with local NGOs.

“We are against building new power plants; we promote renewables and a better energy mix in Poland.”

Report: EU warns Poland against ‘backdoor subsidies’ for coal

Coal generates some 85% of electricity in Poland and enjoys high level political support.

Sunday was “miner’s day”, with prime minister Beata Szydlo promising “a time of serious investments that will pave the way for a good future for Polish mining.”

President Andrzej Duda was next to pay tribute to coal miners, visiting Bogdanka yesterday.

“It is obvious that coal is our primary energy source,” he said, as reported by Polskie Radio. “It cannot be replaced with wind energy, or any other energy, because this is not economically feasible.”

The government backs an expansion of coal power generation capacity, not only to secure electricity supplies, but to make struggling mines viable.

Tuesday’s court ruling shows that without gaining the acceptance of affected communities, it is coal that may not be feasible.

The judge found that the licencing authority had accepted without question evidence supplied by Polenergia, the company behind the plans, while dismissing NGO and community concerns.

It is the second time Polenergia’s permit has been revoked, in a dispute that has been raging for five years. The utility has the right to appeal. A spokesperson was approached for comment.

Polnoc would have been the first coal power station in Pomerania, a fertile farming region.

Maria Lepek, a resident near the proposed site, explained why she opposed the plant.

“In the South of Poland everything is damaged by coal contamination. If this energy plant gets built, I won’t be able to grow crops on my land due to heavy metals. No one would want to buy these crops,” she told Climate Home.

“Everything was prepared in secret. Few people knew that there is a plan to build the Polnoc power plant here, only half of the kilometres from Rejkowy, where people live. My sister’s house is located just in front of the planned Power plant and she wasn’t even included as a party in the proceeding.”

Report: Brand new Dutch coal plants are crashing in value

For multinational NGOs, the overriding concern is climate change. With the rest of the EU shifting to cleaner energy sources, they argue Poland is making the wrong bet.

By contesting every technical flaw in the permitting process, they hope to convince investors coal projects are not worth the trouble.

Smolak told Climate Home: “It is a very important question whether coal is still good for investment. We challenge the permits because we want to keep higher environmental protection and of course it is also raising the cost of investment.”

Engie shelved plans for its 500MW Leczna plant last year, following a similar lawsuit. A case against PGE’s 1.8GW expansion of Opole power station delayed but did not halt the project, which is under construction.

As the ruling Law & Justice party continues to back coal, the courts offer a forum for Poles to push back.

Radoslaw Slusarczyk, from the NGO Workshop for All Beings, said of the Polnoc judgment: “The court ruled in favor of the local residents. This is a chance for developing the region in line with its undeniable assets – its agriculture, environment, and tourism”.

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Eleven member states have or are planning to introduce “capacity mechanisms” to make sure there is enough electricity available to keep the lights on.

These must not be skewed towards coal or gas power plants, the competition directorate said in guidance published alongside the bloc’s clean energy package.

“Capacity mechanisms need to match a problem in the market and be open to all technologies and to operators from other EU countries,” said Commissioner Margarethe Vestager.

“They must not be backdoor subsidies for a specific technology, such as fossil fuels, or come at too high a price for electricity consumers.”

Brussels did not single out any national government. Some, like France, have had their schemes separately scrutinised and approved, subject to amendments.

Report: Brand new Dutch coal plants are crashing in value

The guidance appears to set a collision course with Poland, though, which is developing a scheme explicitly to support new power stations.

Energy minister Krzysztof Tchorzewski told a conference in May, as reported by Euractiv: “There is no energy safety or stability of supplies without conventional power generation. We can improve on emissions, but conventional generation will always have to be there.”

For Warsaw, “conventional” means coal, which accounted for 85% of electricity production in 2013. Sourcewatch lists 4GW worth of plants under construction and nearly 5GW more in the pipeline.

Tchorzewski said at least 7GW was needed in six years to avoid restrictions on consumption.

But after an 18-month inquiry, the Commission found that member states had been “insufficiently thorough” in assessing the need for more capacity.

Where there were justifiable security of supply concerns, it recommended reforming the market before considering extra measures.

Better grid connections and “interruptibility schemes” – paying consumers to switch off when electricity is scarce – might be more appropriate than new plant, the inquiry concluded.

The EU's clean energy package offers dull continuity. Isn't that refreshing? https://t.co/7vqJDTqIyo pic.twitter.com/OB8y8hGVKT

— Climate Home News (@ClimateHome) December 1, 2016

“Poland coming up is more or less inevitable now,” said Ken Huestebeck, state aid expert at environmental law NGO Client Earth. “We would also like to see a closer investigation of Poland, because of the relatively high share of coal in their energy mix.”

The clean energy package included an emissions limit on plants accessing capacity payments, effectively excluding new coal. By 2026, old power stations must also comply with the standard.

While it may take three years for that legislation to be officially adopted, Huestebeck told Climate Home there was a precedent for the Commission enforcing provisional rules.

And the Commission press release stated it would work with member states to bring their schemes – a number of which have “major shortcomings” – in line with the rules.

Ultimately, it can impose fines or order governments to demand beneficiaries repay the aid if it is allocated in an unlawful way.

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The post EU warns Poland against ‘backdoor subsidies’ for coal appeared first on Climate Home News.

In a letter to the environment ministers of other member states sent on Monday, Poland’s Jan Szyszko said the country expected the EU to recognise its special economic need to build new coal plants and carry credits from the Kyoto Protocol in order to meet emissions reduction targets.

The Polish environment minister struck at a moment when the EU has placed its credibility on the line over the Paris Agreement. Miguel Arias Cañete, the European Commission’s (EC) top climate official said last week that the bloc would follow other major emitters and ratify the climate treaty in early October.

It is a game of chicken, with a symbolic deadline of October 7 fast approaching for the EU to have ratified the treaty before the start of the next major climate talks in November. EU environment ministers will meet in an extraordinary session in Brussels on September 30 to make a decision on ratification.

EU climate commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete has called on all member states to ratify the Paris agreement (Pic: Peru Climate Action/Flickr)

Szyszko made clear that Poland’s support was conditional “on terms that take into account the specificity of the Polish economy”.

“Poland is a country rich in energy sources and its energy security, based on its own resources, that is hard coal and lignite is the foundation of Poland’s economy and sustainable development. Moreover, Poland faces the need to develop new energy plants, as it has to satisfy the growing demand for electrical power and replace ageing and inefficient power plants,” wrote the minister.

“Poland shall consent to ratify the Paris agreement by the EU, provided that our reduction achievements made so far under the Kyoto Protocol and the specificity of our national energy mix are considered.”

Using credits accumulated under the Kyoto protocol is an accounting trick rejected by many countries. Australia openly uses them to achieve the perception it is reducing emissions. But Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and Britain have cancelled theirs, judging the Kyoto regime to have been too generous. Poland’s Kyoto overshoot occurred because the country’s industrial sector collapsed after the fall of communism.

Other concessions the Polish minister demanded was the ability to count carbon being locked away in its forests and wooden buildings, plus avoided emissions because of its use trees and other biomass for energy.

Under the agreement, the EU has committed to cut its emissions by 40% below 1990 levels before 2030. The EU’s draft laws recognise that members should have different responsibilities and “fairness and solidarity” as well as GDP should be considered in setting national targets.

Speaking about the special case of Poland to Climate Home on the sidelines of the UN Climate Week in New York last week, Canete said decisions about a country’s energy mix were the sovereign choice of each nation. But he added that all “will have to go for renewables and go for efficiency… We have the most ambitious target… I have travelled to the 28 countries. All have pointed the challenge that the 40% will mean on the ground.”

Note: The original article said the EU needed unanimity to ratify the agreement. This was incorrect. 

The post Poland threatens EU plan to ratify UN climate deal appeared first on Climate Home News.

The environment ministry on Monday called for financial guarantees for investment in coal capacity.

This stance clashes with EU climate policy goals, not least the bloc’s commitment – reaffirmed at the recent G20 summit – to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.

Warsaw’s attachment to the polluting fuel has long been a source of tension with Brussels. Now, it risks delaying the EU’s formal joining of the Paris pact, which can only be completed when all member states do their homework.

The EU is already lagging behind the US and China, which inked the formalities on Saturday. Others have pledged to follow swiftly, making it likely the deal will enter into force in 2016, passing the double threshold of 55 countries representing 55% of global emissions.

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Wendel Trio, director of Climate Action Network Europe, described the move as “blackmail”.

“It is unacceptable that the Polish government wants to link different files with each other,” he told Climate Home.

“In a way, it only shows the dire straits that the Polish government is in to support its loss-making coal industry. They desperately want to allow both burning and producing coal but they know it is not economically viable.”

Dependent on coal for around 90% of its electricity, Poland is protective of its mining sector. It has intervened extensively to rescue Polish coal businesses struggling with low prices in recent years.

The government’s statement was unapologetic. “Poland needs to build new power units. Coal will remain the primary source of energy for many years, ensuring energy security,” it said.

Poland’s pain: Weaning Warsaw off coal

“After Poland called the Paris Agreement a success, the statement might be seen as highly surprising,” said Julia Michalak, analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.

In a recent bulletin, she urged the government not to ignore EU climate goals as it draws up a 2050 energy strategy. Otherwise, she warned, it risks facing legal challenges through the EU Court of Justice.

“Discrepancies between national and EU climate and energy legislation would also mean rising and significant uncertainty for investors,” Michalak added.

“As the Polish energy sector requires urgent upgrades, this is the right moment to synchronise Polish energy policy with the EU’s climate policy framework.”

Report: EU carbon market is subsidising Polish coal plants

It is not clear exactly what kind of extra support Poland hopes to secure. The country already gets concessions within the EU climate policy framework, including less demanding emissions targets and free carbon allowances for power generation.

Its lobbying efforts have seen EU “modernisation funds” go to upgrade fossil fuel infrastructure rather than developing clean alternatives.

The EU is committed to cutting emissions 40% from 1990 levels by 2030. While Poland would struggle to reopen the main planks of the package, some details are still up for negotiation.

This could include continuing to allow revenues from the carbon market to go to coal infrastructure, for example – an option some member states want to ban.

Another avenue for Poland could be an exemption from EU state aid rules against subsidising coal mines, CAN’s Trio speculated.

But he questioned whether Brussels would be prepared to give any ground, given Warsaw’s aggressive tactics. “I think there will be even more reluctance from EU officials to give in to Poland,” he said.

The post Poland to back UN climate deal – if it can burn more coal appeared first on Climate Home News.

On Thursday the European Commission released its vision of all 28 member states would contribute towards the bloc’s goal of cutting emissions 40% on 1990 levels by 2030.

Covering around 60% of EU emissions, the plan sees Sweden and Luxembourg making cuts of 40% on 2005 levels.

Poland’s 7% goal is the fourth smallest after Bulgaria (0%), Romania (2%) and Latvia (6%).

Poland’s pain: Weaning Warsaw off coal

“Poland cannot afford to take such a big effort reduction,” said deputy environment minister Paul Salek in a statement on the ministry’s website.

“We will take action to achieve the goal that will… not unduly inconvenience the Polish economy.”

Warsaw has long railed against European climate targets. The country relies on coal for over 90% of its electricity, and ministers from all political sides have fiercely defended the mining sector.

Minister #Sałek o propozycji @EUinPL redukcji w #Polska emisji gazów cieplarnianych #nonETS https://t.co/2Yg3hvHHRD pic.twitter.com/KuTZkcDgoe

— Ministerstwo Klimatu i Środowiska (@MKiS_GOV_PL) July 21, 2016

In May energy minister Krzysztof Tchorzewski mocked the idea the country could ditch coal by 2050 in an interview with Politico.

“We simply reject that. If we go down to 50% coal in our energy mix by then that would be an enormous success,” he said.

“When it comes to reducing coal use in energy, we’ll be walking at a slower pace than other European countries.”

Still, Poland could face tougher demands from Brussels if the UK decides Brexit means it will not take part in European climate goals.

As one of Europe’s richest countries Britain currently takes an above average share of EU emission cuts.

The post Poland ‘cannot afford’ share of EU 2030 climate target appeared first on Climate Home News.

Now it is time to deliver, that unity will be put to the test. Between a wayward Warsaw, refugee crisis and the Brexit threat, the European project is coming under strain.

“It is clear that Europe is having a couple of issues on its plate,” Dutch Green MEP Bas Eickhout tells Climate Home. “A lot of countries are really playing hardball.”

In this fraught context, Brussels must make policy decisions worth billions of tonnes of CO2 and divide its bloc-wide emissions target between 28 member states.

Piling on the pressure, France’s environment minister Segolene Royal is on a mission to ratify the Paris Agreement as soon as possible.

In theory, the EU can rubber-stamp the pact on the basis of the bloc-wide commitment already agreed: to cut emissions “at least” 40% from 1990 levels by 2030.

In practice, some member states are reluctant to formally join until that is broken down into national targets.

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It all hinges on the “effort sharing decision”, in EU jargon. This applies to emissions from transport, farming, buildings and anything else – around 60% of the total – not covered by the bloc’s carbon market.

The European Commission is set to outline national targets on 20 July, ranging from 0% to 40% emissions cuts (confusingly, from a 2005 baseline).

Expect clashes, says Oliver Geden, head of research at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

“As soon as this proposal will be on the table, everybody in the whole world will be able to see how divisive climate policy in the EU really is,” he tells Climate Home.

This part used to be described as “burden sharing” and despite attempts to frame green growth as an opportunity, many still see it that way.

National contributions towards the EU 2020 emissions target (Source: European Commission)

As with the 2020 targets, wealthy member states will be expected to find deeper cuts than their poorer neighbours.

Yet already, Brussels watchers report resistance from Poland, long a disruptive force in EU climate policy. Warsaw’s envoys threaten to reject the 8-9% target consistent with its GDP per capita, calling for 0%.

Julia Michalak, analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), tells Climate Home the country has potential for carbon cuts but needs support.

Under the 2020 climate framework, eastern European countries have barely needed to constrain emissions, as their targets allowed room to grow.

“This would be the first time Poland had to take action to implement any emission reduction mechanisms,” says Michalak.

Poland’s pain: Weaning Warsaw off coal

If Poland insists on freeriding, it means asking other states to contribute more. That could be a tough sell.

“In the more ambitious member states, the question will be: do we buy them off again?” says Geden.

“Someday, we will have to close the gap between West and East. To give for the next decade all these exemptions is kind of problematic.”

Renewables pioneers Germany and Denmark are dialling back support for clean energy at home, in response to concerns about high prices. It is doubtful they will indulge special pleading.

Nor can Warsaw expect much sympathy from Brussels. Relations are more strained than ever, after Commission vice president Frans Timmermans accused the government of undermining democracy.

David Cameron: Vote Bremain for the climate

The UK is still less inclined to give freebies, two weeks ahead of a referendum on its continued membership of the EU.

Whether voters opt for Brexit or Bremain, Peter Clutton-Brock of think tank E3G warns Westminster’s support for climate action could wane.

While it has not been a major theme of the debate, several prominent Out campaigners are known for their climate sceptic views.

If they win, it will take around two years for Britain to disentangle itself. Meanwhile, the UK is lined up for the rotating presidency of the European Council in the second half of 2017 – when effort sharing decisions are due to be finalised.

Even if they lose, Conservative prime minister David Cameron – who is for staying with Brussels – could make concessions to soothe the disappointed Brexiters in his party.

“There is going to be a need to find those areas of EU climate policy that both sides can agree on as much as possible,” says Clutton-Brock.

Those could include the single energy market and rolling out electric vehicles, for example.

Report: EU carbon price forecast inches up on reform plans

While politicians fight over how to carve the carbon budget, climate advocates are concerned the whole should not get too bloated.

Lawmaker Eickhout says: “What I fear is that [the Commission proposal] is going to be a bit of a present for all the countries making a fuss, at the cost of watering down Europe’s ambition level.”

Accounting rules set in the coming months will make a big difference to the level of greenhouse gases emitted next decade.

Loopholes – or “flexibilities”, to their fans – could lead to an extra 4.7 billion tonnes of CO2, according to a report by Carbon Market Watch, WWF and Transport & Environment. That is roughly equivalent to South Africa’s carbon footprint over 10 years.

The carbon impact of potential loopholes estimated by Carbon Market Watch, WWF and Transport & Environment

First, there is the battle for the baseline. Most EU states are expected to overachieve their 2020 goals. Hungary and Latvia want to carry over the credit towards the next decade’s target.

Another wheeze, backed by countries including the UK, France and Austria, is to transfer some excess pollution permits from the carbon market to the non-traded sector.

Then there are calls to count forest management towards emissions goals, claiming credit for trees planted up to 25 years ago.

“The EU’s climate action needs to be made more ambitious, not further weakened through the introduction of loopholes,” says Finnish MEP Sirpa Pietikäinen, endorsing the report.

“While ecosystem accounting is important, offsetting should not be used to reduce the climate efforts in other sectors.”

Report: UN asks governments for 2050 plans to phase out coal, oil and gas

All these moves win countries headroom in the short term, but reduce the impetus for low carbon investment.

That only heightens the challenge of meeting the EU’s 2050 target of an 80-95% cut, warns Suzana Carp, analyst at think tank Sandbag.

“It is in everybody’s interests to keep the effort sharing decision as tight as possible over the next ten years,” she tells Climate Home.

“Otherwise we will need a very steep curve to 2050, perhaps without the technologies being developed.”

Not all flexibility is seen as undermining ambition. Sandbag supports allowing countries to take credit for funding carbon-cutting projects across borders.

There are some relatively cheap opportunities to reduce emissions in countries with weak targets of their own, says Carp. “It would be a win-win situation.”

Fabius: EU failure to rapidly ratify Paris Agreement ‘damaging’

For the EU’s credibility internationally, perhaps the most important signal will be provision to review ambition before 2030.

Global stocktakes are scheduled in 2018 and 2023, for all governments to update their contributions to the Paris Agreement.

Technically, they are entitled simply to resubmit existing policies. Yet the pact acknowledges these are collectively inadequate to hold temperature rise “well below” 2C or to 1.5C – the global goal.

Indeed, the EU was one of the most vocal proponents of a review mechanism. To lock in today’s effort levels would be against the spirit of its own negotiating position and alienate allies vulnerable to global warming impacts.

Politicians should not lose sight of this. While it may look like a zero sum game to their electorates, the effort sharing rules will be essential for Brussels’ standing on the world stage.

The post Effort sharing: EU climate negotiations set to strain unity appeared first on Climate Home News.

France’s top climate diplomat Laurence Tubiana announced its parliament would start the process of domestic ratification this week, making it the first to do so.

The whole bloc “should have ratified by 2018,” she told a conference in Paris on Tuesday, hosted by the French think tank IDDRI.

That means the EU will likely join over a year after the US, China and potentially a hundred or more developing countries that have long been the target of Brussels’ climate sermons.

Fabius: EU failure to rapidly ratify Paris Agreement ‘damaging’

European Commission officials are working on a plan to realise its promise to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% on 1990 levels by 2030, with a draft expected before the summer recess.

But it’s not simple. Carbon cuts for the bloc’s 2020 goal of 20% cuts on 1990 levels were not shared equally among member states.

Luxembourg and Denmark, for example, aimed for 20% cuts on a baseline of 2005. France had to make 14% cuts, Spain 10%. Others could pollute more, including Poland (+15%), Romania (+19%) and Bulgaria (+20%).

The figures were calculated depending on the capacity of countries to make cuts, while support to those in need of help in making a clean energy transition runs into the billions.

This time round, as the net gets tighter, all 28 member states will be required to do more. That is not playing well with some, notably Poland’s new centre-right government.

Report: Tackling climate not in Poland’s interest, says Duda

Warsaw signed the 2015 Paris deal in New York on 22 April, but an official added a line refusing to help fund global climate efforts.

This week, energy minister Krzysztof Tchorzewski mocked the idea the country will be able to ditch coal by 2050.

“We simply reject that. If we go down to 50% coal in our energy mix by then that would be an enormous success,” he said in quotes reported by Politico.

“When it comes to reducing coal use in energy, we’ll be walking at a slower pace than other European countries,” he added. Coal accounts for nearly 90% of the country’s power generation.

Poland’s coal crisis
Miners once numbered half a million and were regarded as national heroes for their role in the toppling of Communism in 1989. Now there are fewer than 100,000 – a figure expected to fall fast.

At 1,200 metres below ground, Poland’s coal mines are on average three times deeper than China’s, making extraction time-consuming and expensive. Rock-bottom prices have shattered the domestic industry. In 2015, Poland’s three largest mines reported net losses of US$2.6 billion.

Ruling out renewables, Tchórzewski argues that Poland’s only realistic hope of cutting emissions is planting trees, although the EU is still consulting on whether this will be count towards its 2030 goal.

It’s a massive headache for the European Commission, but one Tubiana argued can be relieved if Brussels is willing to get creative on policy formulation.

Repeating the burden sharing trick used for the 2020 goals is unlikely to deliver, she said: “If we follow the type of political streams we have been following it will be difficult.”

For one, the EU roadmap towards 80% GHG cuts on 1990 levels by 2050 is too prescriptive and “does not speak to Poland, Portugal or Spain”.

“Of course we need to ratify and decide who does what before 2030 but we have to engage in a new conversation, nation by nation, to see what pathways there are for each,” she said.

“The Paris Agreement is based on a capacity for each country to seek its future.”

EU climate chief: Implementing the Paris Agreement starts at home

It’s not clear if Tubiana was suggesting member states go solo and determine their own contribution to the bloc’s 40% target, a policy that could deliver a race to the bottom.

Rather, it seems she’s calling for EU governments to take the initiative away from Brussels, an idea Maciej Bukowski, president of the Warsaw-based Wise Europa think tank, says could work.

“We need to think of different perspectives of different parts of Europe. Modelling is [usually] done on a pan-European point of view,” he told Climate Home.

“The eastern flank of the EU is ambitious to catch up, but any new stone is very heavy.”

Instead of endless lectures to a Warsaw government that has long stopped listening, Brussels could benefit from exploring the Polish mentality when it comes to energy security and social cohesion.

NGO: EU carbon market is subsidising Polish coal plants

An advisor to the current and previous Warsaw governments, Bukowski is quietly confident Poland will continue to move away from coal, citing market forces as a major driver.

A few years ago no Polish energy minister would dare admit coal could one day provide just 50% of Poland’s power, he said.

One example of change comes in the form of a new set of transformers on the German border.

These will inject competition into the coal-dominated energy sector, allowing Poland to take advantage of cheap surplus solar and wind power produced in its neighbour’s lightly populated north.

Still, the country has plans to build 14 coal power plants. Even if not all are built, it is heavily invested in high-carbon infrastructure well beyond 2050.

Managing expectations and paying for Warsaw’s green transition will determine its ambition, suggested Bukowski. “Security is very important. Coal is perceived as a source of security because this is our own resource,” he said.

“We have social problems and we don’t want another change. And we don’t want to lose our security so it’s very hard to openly say we must change once again.”

The post Poland’s pain: Weaning Warsaw off coal appeared first on Climate Home News.

A solar farm in Bavaria, Germany (Flickr/ Windwärts Energie)

By Megan Darby in Berlin

Germany’s rush to renewables is destabilising the power grid in neighbouring Poland, a top Warsaw official complained on Thursday.

Europe’s most enthusiastic adopter of wind and solar power depends on the bloc’s most coal dependent nation to manage the network impacts of variable generation.

In a conference hosted by the Foreign Office in Berlin to promote its “Energiewende” or energy transition policy, Michal Kurtyka called for market reform.

“Poland is needed for Energiewende to succeed,” he told an audience that included several ministers from around the world.

On the sidelines, he told Climate Home the problem comes when electricity surges through Poland’s power lines between generators and consumers in Germany. The network operator has to manage these “loop flows” but gets no payment for doing so.

“What is a problem is that these unplanned flows are completely outside of the market, they are not integrated in tariffs,” he said. “It is very much disturbing the Polish grid.”

In 2015, renewables supplied a record high 32.5% of Germany’s power demand.

Report: German CO2 emissions rise 1% in 2015

Boris Schucht, CEO of 50Hertz, which operates the transmission network in northern and eastern Germany, said that was manageable. “Germany shows a highly industrialised country can master the transition to a high share of renewables.”

He claimed energy storage – often touted as critical to integrating variable wind and solar generation – would only be needed when renewables exceeded 70-80% of the mix.

That depends on interconnections and with other European countries, however, and not all share the German approach to energy.

In contrast to Germany’s phase-out of nuclear energy by 2022, the Czech Republic sees atomic power in its future.

Deputy industry minister Lenka Kovacovska criticised the way renewables were subsidised, saying: “Currently, markets don’t work properly, there are too many distortions.”

German economics and energy minister Sigmar Gabriel agreed, in his opening speech, that renewable generators should not continue to receive prices set by government.

“They are no longer small puppies,” he said. “They have grown up and they need to face market pressure.”

Report: Polish districts call for coal-free development

Next year, Germany will switch away from fixed price support for renewable power technologies to an auction-based system.

The country is also seeking to strengthen its own power grid – “the backbone of any modern industrial society,” said Gabriel.

Rainer Baake, top official in Gabriel’s ministry, said wind and solar installations had got cheap enough to compete with new coal plants.

“From now on, renewables are at an absolute cost advantage,” he said. “What we have to do now is create a system that works efficiently. I don’t pray to markets as a god, I see markets as a tool for efficiency.”

Clean Energy Wire is paying for Megan Darby’s travel to Berlin and accommodation

The post Why Germany’s clean energy shift is vexing its neighbours appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Polish government sees EU climate policy as a threat to its ailing coal sector (Flickr/Kris Duda)

By Megan Darby

Poland’s newly formed government faces a battle with local authorities over future opencast coal mines.

In a struggle with big implications for the Eastern European country’s stance on climate change, regional chiefs are resisting Warsaw attempts to impose lignite extraction.

Such resource grabs destroy forests, farms and homes, they said in an open letter to chief geologist Mariusz Jedrysek on Friday.

“We call for a radical change in direction of development of the Polish energy sector,” they wrote. “Our country has so far only been betting on outdated coal technologies, neglecting the innovative energy efficiency sector, renewable and distributed energy resources, becoming uncompetitive and singled out in Europe.”

President Duda: Tackling climate not in Poland’s interest

The conflict was teed up by the previous administration, with the release of a “White Book” ahead of November’s general election. Produced by the Polish Geological Survey, it advised reserving large swathes of land for potential mining.

That meant blocking any non-mine development over lignite – brown coal – reserves that could prevent it being dug out in future. It signalled the government was planning for mine expansion as international and EU climate targets demand a fossil fuel phase-out.

“Somebody is crazy enough to think about opening mines in 10-20 years, even though we are living in a completely different reality,” said Kuba Gogolewski of campaign group Development YES, Open-Pit Mines NO.

It provoked strong reactions, with around 8,000 consultation responses. Objections were as much about the way it recommended overriding local democracy as the coal-based strategic direction.

On taking over the top geology job, Jedrysek distanced himself from the contentious document, promising to throw it in the bin.

But signatories of the open letter, including four local chiefs, farming association Our Home and environmentalist group Greenpeace, were not satisfied. “These declarations, although valuable and mood-calming, do not however close the case,” they wrote.

Interview: Top lobbyist says coal needs its own ‘Mission Innovation’

The new government, like the old, is supportive of Poland’s ailing coal industry. Providing 90% of electricity and around 100,000 jobs, the sector has political leverage even as it crumbles financially.

Squeezed by rock bottom coal prices and high labour costs, existing miners are turning to the state for bailouts. The country’s – and EU’s – biggest producer, Kompania Weglowa, is seeking nearly US$400 million to restructure, of which around a third could come from public funds.

A credible rescue package would cut 30-50% of jobs over the next few years, said Maciej Bukowski, president of the Warsaw Institute of Economic Studies (WISE). “The government is trying to balance the need for restructuring with the need to retain political support among miners.”

Warsaw needs to get European Commission clearance for any state aid to the coal sector. Brussels competition chief Margrethe Vestager has said she will only approve cash to smooth a phase-out of failing mines.

It comes at a time of heightened tensions, with the EU investigating a Polish government crackdown on media and the judiciary.

Report: Poland can break coal chokehold, says clean power body

The proposed bailout applies to hard coal, which is extracted from deep mines at high cost. Lignite is a different story.

A low quality form of coal, lignite is cheaper to scoop out of surface mines, but not worth transporting. In Poland, the vast majority is burned at onsite power stations, under the ownership of utilities.

Existing strip mines will be depleted around 2030, WISE’s Bukowski told Climate Home, leaving those power plants stranded. What happens next “is a very large question mark”, not yet widely debated.

Greenhouse gas emissions from power plants are covered by the EU’s emission trading scheme. Generators must hold allowances equal to their carbon output – buying permits above their free allocation.

Poland has won concessions for its electricity sector, largely shielding it from the costs to date. But they will become increasingly exposed to the carbon price, which is expected to rise as EU targets tighten.

A price of €30 a tonne of CO2 (up from €6 today) would render dirty lignite plants unprofitable, Bukowski said.

Warsaw’s energy policy decisions have wider reverberations. A coal-dependent Poland has traditionally seen climate action as a threat. It fought hard for loopholes in the EU2030 climate package and is holding up EU efforts to ratify an extension to the Kyoto Protocol carbon-cutting treaty.

If they can find alternatives, Polish politicians will be less beholden to a diminished coal lobby.

The post Polish districts call for coal-free development appeared first on Climate Home News.

Duda (centre) and PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski (right) say they want to renegotiate the EU’s 2030 climate and energy package (Pic: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość/Flickr)

By Ed King

Poland’s president has blocked an amendment to the Kyoto Protocol climate treaty, arguing it needs more time to assess its potential economic impacts.

Andrzej Duda’s intervention comes a day after the eurosceptic and conservative Law and Justice (PiS) won power on the back of promises that included protecting the country’s coal industry.

The move comes weeks before a global climate pact to replace Kyoto from 2020 is set to be finalised by nearly 200 countries in Paris.

“It’s unwelcome news at a time when we have momentum towards agreeing a long term strategy to do with climate change,” said Giza Gaspar Martins, an Angolan diplomat who represents the world’s Least Developed Countries group at UN talks.

Analysis: Don’t bet on a Polish EU climate policy revolt

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol is the world’s only legally binding climate treaty, and mandated signatories to slash CO2 emissions 5% from 2008-2012 on 1990 levels.

An extension to 2020 was agreed at the UN in December 2012, covering 15% of global emissions with only Europe and Australia mandated to make cuts.

An EU official said Poland’s move was unlikely to impact its negotiating strategy for the upcoming Paris summit, but said it could affect the EU’s wider low carbon planning.

Report: EU moves towards ratifying Kyoto Protocol extension

Still, Poland is still bound by the EU’s 2020 climate package, which covers the bloc’s Kyoto contributions and ensures Warsaw’s carbon-intensive economy is not hit hard by the targets.

Julia Michalak, a Polish climate and energy expert at Demos Europa said the announcement was “posturing” by the incoming administration.

“When you look at the content it does not decrease Poland’s emission reductions up to 2020,” she said.

Liz Gallagher, head of climate diplomacy at the E3G think tank called the move “opportunistic and rash.”

“Poland has extracted significant concessions from its European partners on the EU climate policy, and these have gone to subsidise coal rather than create a modern Polish economy,” she added.

Jan Kowalzig at Oxfam International described the move by the newly-elected party as “flexing muscles” before the Paris summit. “Yet is a very unhelpful signal,” he said by email.

Poland generates over 85% of its electricity from burning coal, and despite receiving funding from the EU to invest in cleaner forms of energy appears reluctant to diversify.

A study by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released on Tuesday said the country had vast untapped wind power resources, and could cut consumption through efficiency investments.

Report: Poland can break coal chokehold, says clean power body

Earlier this month PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said his party wanted to build more coal plants and was ready for a fight with the EU over carbon targets.

“As to the climate package renegotiation is needed. We should not have agreed to that, it could have been vetoed,” he said.

The decision could be overturned by parliament by a three-fifths majority once the new analysis has been assessed, Bloomberg reported.

Yet Duda’s Law and Justice party clinched the first majority since 1989 in Poland’s lower chamber with 235 out 460 seats, providing the lawmakers to enact his agenda.

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A strip mining machine at a Polish coal mine. The country relies on the fuel for 90% of its electricity, while renewables made up jus 7% in 2010 (Flickr/ Kamil Porembiński)

By Alex Pashley

Coal needn’t rule the roost in Poland for years to come, the International Renewable Energy Agency declared on Tuesday.

The eastern EU’s largest economy lurched to the right on Sunday as the Law and Justice party won office pledging to shore up its ailing coal sector.

Party figures promised on the campaign trail to defy the bloc’s climate targets, which mandate 27% of electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030.

Existing policies get Poland just over half way there by 2030 and are reliant on biomass, IRENA said. Coal, the top-polluting fuel, currently provides about 90% of electricity generation.

Analysts: Don’t bet on a Polish EU climate policy revolt

But the country can go 38% renewable if it taps its vast wind resources in the Baltic sea region, improves power transmission and upgrades its creaky grid, the Abu-Dhabi organisation said in a report using energy ministry data.

Cost-competitive

“As one of the European Union’s largest energy users, Poland plays a critical role in fulfilling the region’s energy needs and climate goals,” said Adzan Amin, IRENA director-general.

“Even in a country like Poland with cheap fossil-fuel based resources, renewable energy can be cost-competitive, reduce air pollution, enhance energy security, benefit the economy, and play a leading role in fighting climate change,” he added.

By doubling annual investments to $4.5 billion, Poland can reach 25% of final energy consumption through renewable power, the agency said. That would reduce carbon emissions and save up to $2 bn a year by 2030, in accounting for health and environmental benefits.

Law and Justice were on course for a slim parliamentary majority after winning 37.6% of the vote, according to the electoral commission. Civic Platform, the main governing party for the last 8 years and who signed off on the EU’s climate package last September, received 24.1%.

#Poland can increase renewable energy nearly five-fold by 2030, new IRENA report finds https://t.co/x9TdCMapmb pic.twitter.com/sX0VyqwaHS

— IRENA (@IRENA) October 27, 2015

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Leader of opposition Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is on course to see his party take power in Oct 25’s election (credit: Wikimedia commons)

By Alex Pashley

The likely winner of Poland’s upcoming legislative elections has vowed to shun EU climate targets threatening the country’s ailing coal industry.

But the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) can do little to evade Brussels’ commitment to cut emissions and deploy clean power, analysts said.

PiS is primed to win power from the Civic Platform (CO), which has been the main governing party since 2008, in Sunday’s election riding a wave of anti-establishment feeling.

Its candidate Andrzej Duda won the presidency in May with a pro-coal message, and needs lawmakers to enact his agenda.

Report: Tackling climate not in Poland’s interest, says Duda

Report: Poland’s resurging right bids to stem coal decline

“If the opposition wins the elections, the attitude towards EU climate policy gets even worse,” said Severin Fischer at the Zurich-based Center for Security Studies.

“Of course it is election campaigning. We can’t take it too serious.”

The party’s focus is opening up an EU energy and climate package settled last September after a marathon process which made concessions to Eastern Europe’s heavy industries.

Poland won the right to continue giving free allowances to its energy sector up to 2030 under the bloc’s emission trading scheme – worth at least €5 billion.

Though they are likely to be used as coal subsidy, rather than on greener alternatives.

Report: Poland “won” EU 2030 deal – does the climate lose?

PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said earlier this month the country needs to build more coal-fired power plants to supply its growing electricity needs.

“We have to fight for this in the European Union. As to the climate package renegotiation is needed. We should not have agreed to that, it could have been vetoed,” he said in Konin, home to a lignite coal-fired plant, Reuters reported.

Relying on coal for about 85% of its electricity generation, Poland has resisted EU drives towards a low carbon energy transition. Renewables stand at just half the EU average, while the shale gas sector is said to be collapsing. It accounted for over 0.8% of global carbon emissions in 2010, according to EU data.

The country’s industry needs to be urgently restructured. The EU’s largest miner and Poland’s third-largest employer Kompania Weglowa is verging on bankruptcy.

State mines need 5 billion zloty (€1.2bn) in investment to make a profit, PiS lawmaker and possible next energy minister, Piotr Naimski, told Bloomberg.

President Duda is sworn in on 6 August by prime minister Ewa Kopacz of CO party (Flickr/ Kancelaria Prezesa Rady Ministrow)

The party has recognised coal production needs to fall, but has offered few policies to stem the industry’s decline, said Julia Michalak at Warsaw think tank, Demos Europa.

“They have no idea to really tackle the problem,” she told Climate Home, labelling their stance as “posturing”.

And their hands are tied in renegotiating the EU’s climate targets, Michalak said, which aim to cut emissions 40% by 2030 below 1990 levels, and boost energy efficiency and renewable energy generation.

What is more, from March 2017, Poland will have less influence in shaping the bloc after Qualified Majority Voting changes mean it will need more support to defeat proposals.

Climate envoy Korolec: Poland is a climate policy success story

Already president Duda has backtracked on his pro-coal talk, signing off on an air quality law to give power to local communities to put curbs on burning dirtiest forms of coal used in homes, Michalak added.

Fischer draws comparison with the EU’s rejection of progressive members’ call for stronger climate targets as examples that a new-look government won’t get its way.

While there’s a chance the parlous state of its coal industry could see it opt-out of EU laws, he concedes, it is more likely the EU will be used as a “scapegoat” to spur action.

“[S]ometimes the EU is a good argument as you are forced to transform,” he said.

If no one party wins a majority, efforts to form a coalition could see it attend a decisive climate summit in Paris next month with no government in place.

The outcome might jolt the 28-member bloc, but it is unlikely to dent its climate policy.

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Officials audit ballot boxes in Afghanistan’s 2014 election (Flickr/ UNAMA)

By Alex Pashley

The election cycle never ends.

Ahead of a decisive climate conference in seven weeks’ time, these are the countries set to elect governments and legislatures. Unpicking long-crafted stances might be dangerous, but not impossible.

What bearing could the shuffling of top national posts have  on UN climate talks?

1. Canada – 19 October

Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada is a major emitter with tar sands making up a chunk (Flickr/ Kris Krug)

Liberal party challenger Justin Trudeau is neck and neck with incumbent prime minister Steven Harper in the polls. Environmentalists are watching the race eagerly, hoping the result might herald some pro-climate policies, including to slash emissions from the country’s dirty tar sands.

Two-term Conservative leader Harper has blocked green reforms, says Ontario premier Kathleen Wynee, with her province leading the charge to defy Ottawa.

Trudeau has promised to link up all provinces and territories with carbon taxes, while his party platform includes support for a fossil fuel subsidy phase-out and is open to joining a North American clean energy agreement with Mexico and the US.

2. Poland – 25 October

Duda won an election in May, heralding a return to power for Poland’s right (tk) (Pic: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość/Flickr)

Favourites the Law and Justice (PiS) party have vowed to shore up Poland’s ageing coal industry and defy EU climate policies. President Andrzej Duda, who was elected in May, campaigned on a similar platform to protect those who haven’t enjoyed the spoils of years of strong growth.

Government figures have hit back, saying Poland would end up marginalised in Europe. Some analysts dismiss PiS pro-coal rhetoric as empty bluster, with key EU decisions long decided. Duda has already tracked back since winning power, passing clean air regulations for local authorities.

But how to salvage the country’s tottering mining companies is “the hot potato no one wants to touch,” says Julia Michalak at think tank Demos Europa.

3. Argentina – 25 October

Argentine president Christina Kirchner in 2014 (Flickr/ Argentine Culture Ministry)

The end of the kirchnerismo project is nigh as President Cristina Kirchner’s protégé Daniel Scioli takes on Mauricio Macri to govern South America’s third-largest economy.

Argentina has pledged to cut emissions at least 15% by 2030, though NGOs said the target’s reliance on existing policies was deceiving.

Scioli has labelled climate change the South American country’s “main enemy”, but candidates are said to have touched little on the subject on the campaign trail.

Argentina is a G20 member and promised to phase out fossil fuel subsidies in the medium term. A November conference may demand more strenuous actions. A second round is slated for 22 November, should no clear winner emerge.

4. Turkey – 1 November 

Yenikoy Open Pit Coal Mine, Milas (credit: wikimedia commons)

Turkey’s general election will go ahead in a fraught climate, after a deadly bomb attack killed 128 people in capital Ankara last Saturday.

Fiercely ambivalent on climate policy, president Recep Erdogan hopes to broaden support for his AK party after an inconclusive result in June. Don’t expect a change of tack in Paris.

The country is backing fossil fuel development, with a series of coal-fired power plants in the pipeline. Emissions have rocketed 110% between 1990 and 2013, and its pledge to the UN foresees that trend accelerating.

It hosting of the next G20  meeting in November will put the government under a lens, but isn’t expected to reverse dirty policy.

5. Myanmar – 8 November

Mystic temples of Bagan, just before sunrise. Bagan, Myanmar (Flickr/ KX Studio)

Could Myanmar’s first relatively free and fair election in 50 years be a new spring for the country’s international engagement? Analysts say Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy could well win a majority, shaking up the Asian country’s politics after military rule ended in 2011.

Myanmar is a blank slate for energy, with the government locked in debate over which direction to take. There is hope for solar, but an expansion of coal-fired power plants is assured to widen electricity access to the two out of three Burmese that lack it. The country lags as one of the worst for deforestation, according to the UN. What would effect would an NLD victory have on a cleaner energy future?

6. Marshall Islands – 16 November 

Laura beach in the Marshall Islands (Pic: Stefan Lins/Flickr)

The low-lying country of 24 atolls in the Pacific ocean has an outsized voice in UN talks given its vulnerability to sea-level rise and storms.

Foreign minister Tony de Brum has used that as his bully pulpit to campaign for more robust climate action. The island state came up with a bullish plan to cut emissions and boost renewables in July.

The senator has labelled climate change migration “genocide” and lambasted the UN’s shipping body chief over slow progress to curb maritime emissions. But like any politician, he must win re-election to the Nitijela parliament in capital Majuro. Polling data is not readily available.

Holding major emitters to account has bipartisan support in the Marshall Islands and the new government wont take office until next year after the Paris summit. But small islands states would lose a giant if de Brum did not win back his seat.

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(Pic: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość/Flickr)

By Ed King

Poland’s newly appointed president says he is open to rethinking the country’s support for EU-wide climate policies, declaring carbon cutting plans “not in our interest”.

In an interview with Politico, Andrzej Duda said the October 2014 decision by the EU’s 28 member states to target 40% emission cuts on 1990 levels by 2030 was “bad for Poland’s direction”.

“Compared to the rest of Europe, we have enormous coal reserves and simply understood decarbonization is completely not in our interest,” he said.

Mooted EU plans to limit the extraction of shale gas were equally unacceptable, he added.

One Polish climate expert who did not want to be named described his comments as part of a “game” in the lead up to October’s general election.

“I personally don’t believe that’s something we should be truly afraid of. That’s rather a narrative that helps Duda’s Law & Justice party to gain miners’ votes and to differentiate themselves from the ruling party,” they said.

“Both the 2030 package and the Energy Union framework were endorsed by heads of state so all relevant issues that required unanimity are fixed now.”

Analysis: Why are big EU polluters moaning about carbon leakage?

According to Politico, Duda “waved off” a question on the wider impacts of temperature rises, responding: “Global warming, global warming.”

Duda, who won office in May, also claimed that EU climate regulations were more severe than in other parts of the world, naming the US, China and Brazil.

That was “simply unreasonable” and made the European economy uncompetitive, he argued.

In March, the US committed to carbon cuts of 26-28% by 2025 on 2005 levels. Earlier this month, president Barack Obama released final plans to slash pollution from power plants 32% by 2030, a move welcomed by Poland’s top climate envoy at the time.

#CleanPowerPlan is a small step towards changing energy mix in US but huge step in history of global climate talks. Congratulations! #COP21

— Marcin Korolec (@MarcinKorolec) August 4, 2015

And in June, China confirmed it would aim to peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and reduce the levels of carbon per unit of GDP 60-65% on 2005 levels by 2030.

Brazil, India and other emerging economies are expected to deliver their national climate plans by a 1 October deadline, after which the collective impact will be assessed by a UN panel.

A European Commission spokesperson had no comment to make on Duda’s remarks, but observed Poland was one of the signatories to last year’s EU-wide climate agreement.

“When it comes to the EU’s position and collective EU pledge to Paris (-40% GHG reduction by 2030 on 1990 basis) the European Council in October 2014 unanimously (Poland included) endorsed the target,” they told RTCC in an email.

Asked about Duda’s comments in a press conference on Thursday, climate commissioner Miguel Arias Canete insisted that a move towards cleaner low carbon energy sources was inevitable.

“I think the EU is in the right path – we have been showing the way to others,” he said.

Poland’s prime minister Ewa Kopacz greeted the announcement of the 2030 climate package by telling reporters the country had “won”, extracting significant financial support from richer EU member states.

And while the EU as a whole will target a 40% cut, Poland’s emissions trajectory will not be as steep.

Many of the country’s heavy industries will also be relieved from the regional emissions trading scheme up to 2030 after a deal was reached to give them free allowances worth an estimated €11-16.5 billion.

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Bełchatów coal power station in Poland, one of Europe’s dirtiest plants (Flickr/ Kamil Porembiński)

By Alex Pashley

Andrzej Duda was sworn in as Poland’s president on Thursday, after a shock victory in May’s election.

The Law & Justice (PiS) candidate’s win has propelled the opposition party to lead the polls for October’s parliamentary elections.

It is a shift to the right that risks destabilising the hard-won EU agreement on climate change.

“The strategy that we’re planning for the economy rejects the dogma of decarbonisation,” Piotr Naimski, the party’s energy policy advisor told Bloomberg. “The role of coal in Poland’s economy fully deserves to receive special treatment.”

The party has vowed to protect the country’s loss-making coal industry, renegotiating the EU carbon-cutting settlement if necessary.

As the EU’s largest miner and Poland’s third-biggest employer, Kompania Weglowa, totters toward bankruptcy, PiS wants to force profitable state-owned utilities to take on more of miners’ costs.

But can Duda and his party really reverse the decline of this polluting sector, in an EU set on a low carbon path?

Report: Poland “won” EU 2030 deal – does the climate lose?

“Of course its election campaigning to a certain extent,” said Pawel Nierada, an energy expert at the Sobieski Institute, which has advised the party.

“I don’t see any radical challenges with overall policy, the question is how we are going to address the coal issue in the broader sense, which is making existing plants a significant part of the energy mix in the future.”

Coal provides up to 90% of Poland’s electricity generation. But the EU’s second largest producer has ran huge losses in the region’s deep mines. While a privatisation programme is underway, much of Poland’s energy sector is still owned by the state.

Poland leaders see it as core to reducing energy dependence on Russian oil and gas imports.

And its coalfields, mainly in the south-west region of Upper Silesia, employ about 100,000 people.

By 2020, Kompania Weglowa, which accounts for about half of mining, plans to shut down half of its mines, from 15 to eight, Coal Age reported.

Andrzej #Duda becomes #Poland‘s new leader at official ceremony http://t.co/6oKIyn8SQw pic.twitter.com/DJWAVHXxY5

— UKRAINE TODAY (@uatodaytv) August 6, 2015

The volume of coal mining is projected to drop from 38-40 million tonnes in 2012 to 25 mt in 2020.

Yet coal is expected to remain the main fuel for electricity generation, according to the government’s 2030 energy plan.

PiS “treat [coal] as a national treasure”, said Wojciech Szymalski, vice-president at the Institute of Sustainable Development.

Poland has signed up to the EU commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions 20% by 2020 and 40% by 2030 on 1990 levels, but at a price.

Together with the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, it led the Visegrad Group in calls for weaker targets and concessions in the 2030 package.

Ewa Kopacz, prime minister and leader of the incumbent Civic Platform, proudly declared she had “won” the negotiations last Autumn.

She extracted extra allowances for Poland’s energy sector under the bloc’s emissions trading scheme, giving breathing space to coal generators. The country will also benefit from a redistribution of funds from richer member states.

But successive governments have failed to take on vital restructuring, using funds to award pay increases rather than spur privatisation, said Nierada.

Krzysztof Blusz, president of demosEUROPA think tank told RTCC there was a “massive risk of a climate-sceptic approach brewing within the ranks of the party.”

PiS has sought to politicise a coal-phase out, linking it with a rise in electricity prices, he said. But despite the posturing, its lawmakers have “learned you can’t reverse the river” – by which he means coal’s terminal decline.

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