https://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/01/10/carney-climate-taskforce-misrepresents-the-paris-deal/ Climate change news, analysis, commentary, video and podcasts focused on developments in global climate politics Wed, 11 Jan 2017 10:59:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 https://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/01/10/carney-climate-taskforce-misrepresents-the-paris-deal/#comment-8670 Wed, 11 Jan 2017 10:59:00 +0000 http://www.climatechangenews.com/?p=32618#comment-8670 The Paris Agreement has one ambiguous goal, with two targets: one firm (2 degrees warming) and one aspirational (1.5 degrees warming). So businesses should consider two distinct scenarios. 2 degrees can be represented as “NDCs plus”, with large corrections for China and India reflecting current trends and policies, and smaller ones elsewhere. 1.5 degrees is more difficult, as SFIK nobody has mapped out a plausible policy scenario to get us there. Achieving it by pure mitigation looks impossible, as it gives us only five years of carbon emissions at current rates. A likelier track would be overshoot followed by massive sequestration, using a mix of technologies some of which exist (reafforestation) and others are in the lab (biochar, olivine weathering). The point for bushinesses is that sequestration is impossible without a carbon tax and premium. The transition to net zero may be feasible without it, simply be cheaper technology. But no technological miracle will make it pay to bury carbon.

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