The presidency has made a first pass at a landing ground for the global stocktake text – the main outcome of the summit. People hate it.

Small island states slammed it as “a death warrant”, their spokesperson getting teary. For the EU it contains elements that are “simply unacceptable”. Campaigners variably described it as “a scandal”, “divorced from reality” and “a dog’s dinner”.

“This obsequious draft reads as if Opec dictated it word for word,” Al Gore posted on social media.

US envoy John Kerry was more restrained. He posted on social media that “the mitigation section, including the issue of fossil fuels, needs to be substantially strengthened, and the finance section contains inaccuracies that must be fixed”.

The energy package is evoking the strongest emotions. Instead of an urgent action agenda, it has become an a-la-carte menu.

To reduce emission countries are offered eight options. These “could include” a reduction of “consumption and production of fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner” to achieve “net zero by before, or around 2050”. Note “phase-out” is gone.

If that is too hard to digest, pick a lighter dish: tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency, or, more controversially, using “low carbon fuels” (code for fossil gas) and “low emissions technologies” like carbon capture and storage.

European and small island states are vowing to stay as long as it takes to deliver an outcome in line with 1.5C. They say many Latin American and African countries are with them. US and China have a critical bridging role, observers said.

The latest headlines

• Why didn’t China and India sign Cop28 tripling renewables pledge?
• What is Alterra, the UAE’s $30 billion green investment fund?
• Adaptation playbook is the true test of Cop28 for world’s vulnerable – Mohamed Adow, Power Shift Africa

Adaptation chasm remains

After two years of unproductive talks, the Cop28 presidency has taken the global goal on adaptation (GGA) text into its own hands.  

But it seems not to have succeeded where countries failed. One developing country negotiator said last night “a majority of developing countries think it is worse than what we had already”. 

There is still no permanent agenda item on GGA at future Cops, risking it falling off the radar. While finance is mentioned in many places, it does not make it into the targets section. 

One problem is the text firmly “decides” to do things like plan and monitor. But only “urges” governments to do things like protect the food and water supply – the stuff that actually matters.   

The new text “commits to close the adaptation finance gap” although it doesn’t specify who should close this gap. 

This ambiguity is “unacceptable”, said Mokoena France, negotiator for the least developed countries bloc. “It subtly shifts the responsibility away from developed countries, contrary to the established principles of historical responsibility.” 

The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that gap is $194-366 billion per year. That makes the doubling adaptation finance to $40bn or so look like pocket change. 

The timeline has changed from 2030 to “2030 and beyond”, which France said “dilutes the urgency and ambition needed”. 

Heads of delegations met with the presidency late last night, with activists outside the doors. We’ll find out today if they’ve got any closer to a landing ground. 

At the “people’s plenary” on Monday, there were speeches from youth and labour representatives. The most emotional moments came in response to the Palestinian co-chair Haneen Jarrar, who appealed for a ceasefire, saying “there is no climate justice without human rights” (Photo: Flickr/Cop28/Kiara Worth)

Opec vs Boga

Some 600km away in Doha, Qatar, Opec’s top Arab energy ministers gathered on Monday. The oil and gas cartel warned its members last week that pressure on a fossil fuel phase-out “may reach a tipping point”.

Ministers from Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman showed up to the meeting, as well as Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Bin Salman has been vocal about his opposition to a fossil fuel phase out, but Opec ministers did not announce an official position.

In the Cop28 venue, a small but determined band of countries were keeping that pressure up.

Ahead of the release of the presidency text, ministers from Colombia, Denmark, France and thirteen other members of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (Boga) signed a declaration. They “stand united” around a phase-out of all fossil fuels, while supporting oil-reliant developing countries.

“We must be realistic,” the declaration reads. “The fossil fuel sector will not unwind itself, nor can it, in isolation. We must plan for an orderly, just transition aligned with 1.5C, rather than risking the abrupt closure of uneconomic oil and gas production.”

In brief

Amazon oil – On Wednesday, Brazil will hold a mega-auction of 602 new oil and gas exploration areas, of which 21 are located within the Amazon and will affect at least 20 indigenous lands. NGOs sent an open letter calling for consistency with Cop28 positions.

Human rights concerns – During its Cop28 presidency, the UAE imposed 87 new terrorism charges on political prisoners, many of whom are recognised human rights defenders. Some of them were meant to be released this year after completing their sentence.

Coal sky-rocketing – India is planning to hike coal production to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030, despite the Cop26 commitment to phase down new unabated coal. That’s up from 900 million tonnes in 2022-23.

Got beef – Campaigners have accused the FAO of lacking ambition in its roadmap for transforming food systems. The Climate Land Ambition and Rights Alliance criticised the plan’s target of reducing emissions intensity from livestock (instead of gross emissions reductions) and its silence on agroecology.

Dirty cooling – The Cop28 venue, ExpoCity Dubai, is being cooled with potent greenhouse gases and inefficient technology, according to the Environmental Investigation Agency. The refrigerants in four buildings alone would have a warming impact equivalent to 1,000 tonnes of CO2, the agency calculated.

Green debt swaps – Colombia, Kenya and France have commissioned an “expert review” on debt, nature and climate, which would provide international policy recommendations to help developing countries protect nature while addressing debt.

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They all referred to a “phase out” of fossil fuels, not “phase down”. That’s largely because petrostates were backing “no text” and refusing to engage further.

As it becomes clear that won’t fly, the next version of the text today may contain weaker compromise language.

To try and break the deadlock, the presidency convened a majlis, which can mean a sitting room or a council in many Islamic countries. Sultan Al Jaber urged ministers sat in a circle around him to speak “heart to heart”.

Colombia, the darling of campaigners as the biggest fossil fuel producer committed to a national phase-out, talked about being confronted with “the reality of power”. It took a hit to its credit rating and the peso dropped. The minister pleaded for international economic reforms to support the transition.

Bolivia called out the hypocrisy of the US, Australia, Norway and Canada. All are planning to increase their oil and gas production by 2030 except Norway, which is planning to reduce it very slowly.

Saudi Arabia appealed for a focus on emissions, not energy sources.

But it’s the swing votes that matter. India and Russia didn’t speak. China didn’t support or oppose fossil fuel phase-out, just pleaded for a “balanced” text, with finance for developing countries, and for developed countries to go first and fastest in the climate “marathon”.

Norway said any language needs to be compatible with 1.5C. Australia used a footie analogy to defend “unabated” – the contentious loophole for carbon capture and storage.

The UK called for “guardrails” ensuring abatement means a lot of carbon captured not just a bit. The EU took a stronger stance against “unabated”.

The latest headlines

• What is Alterra, the UAE’s $30 billion green investment fund?
• Adaptation playbook is the true test of Cop28 for world’s vulnerable – Mohamed Adow, Power Shift Africa
• Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks

Fears mount over carbon trading rules

The US and the EU have been locking horns over a mechanism for countries to bilaterally exchange carbon credits and meet their climate plans.

Marathon negotiations over article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement were in full swing at the time of writing, with heated debate over oversight and transparency measures.

According to observers, the latest draft closely reflects the US’ desire for light-touch regulations. A group led by the EU and including African and island nations is incensed. They want tighter controls to ensure that credits traded between countries actually reduce emissions without causing other environmental or social issues.

“The text is extremely weak and disappointing,” Jonathan Crook of Carbon Market Watch told Climate Home. “All of the positive elements for transparency and accountability have been removed, in favour of a highly minimalist, no-frills approach.”

The draft includes strong confidentiality provisions making it virtually impossible for anyone, outside countries striking a deal, to see the terms and conditions of the trade, observers said. Their fear is that such mechanism could effectively become the dumping ground for junk credits.

Countries that have already struck preliminary deals are watching developments closely.

Controversial Emirati startup Blue Carbon is aiming to trade credits under the mechanism from several African and Caribbean nations.

Switzerland signed its first bilateral agreement with Peru back in 2020, while Singapore inked a deal with Papua New Guinea on Friday. They are itching to turn words into practice.

Private sector operators also favour a light-touch approach. The text is “a step in the right direction, preserving the flexibility for parties to cooperate… in different ways,” said Margaret Kim, CEO of Gold Standard, a leading offsets certifier in the voluntary market.

In brief

Adaptation playbook – A text on the framework for the global goal on adaptation has finally materialised. Developing countries are asking once again: where is the money? There’s no clear mention of finance in the targets. Rich countries want to keep it that way, kicking those discussions to next year.

Third of the job – If Cop28 pledges are implemented in full, the world will shave off a third of the emissions it needs by 2030 to get the world on a path compatible with limiting warming to 1.5C. That’s the judgement of the International Energy Agency on pledges like tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency and tackling emissions from oil and gas production.

Food and farming – The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation has launched its two-year roadmap on transforming agri-food systems. This is to lead to national action plans at Cop30 in Brazil.

Peace Cop? – Gulshan Akhundova tells Climate Home she and fellow Azeri climate campaigners are excited for Cop29 and hope it will help bring piece to the region and bring cooperation between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia on climate change.

Shrinking Caspian – Kazakhstan’s climate envoy Zulfiya Suleimanova told Climate Home she hopes Cop29 will bring attention to Central Asia’s climate issues. With Azerbaijan, they share the Caspian Sea, which is shrinking because of climate change. Kazakhstan’s water-supplying glaciers are melting and it is suffering heatwaves and wildfires.

Dates for your diary – Cop29 will be from 11-22 November 2024 and Cop30 will be 10-21 November 2025, according to new draft texts. Both begin on a Monday and aim to end on a Friday.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Majlis brings fossil fuel views into the open appeared first on Climate Home News.

The big-ticket item in Dubai is the framework for the global goal on adaptation (GGA), a two-year-long exercise to turn the vague provisions of the Paris Agreement into something more concrete. Many hope clear definitions and targets will unlock money for adaptation that has been chronically underfunded.

But the 134-strong group of developing nations known as the G77 is divided.

The hardliners are the Arab group led by Saudi Arabia and the like-minded developing countries (LMDC) spearheaded by China. They have refused to work on any text that does not explicitly mention “common but differentiated responsibilities”, four sources in the room told Climate Home. Putting that in would trigger an automatic rejection from developed countries.

The least developed countries and small island states are increasingly frustrated.

“We’ve invested so much time and energy in this process,” a negotiator from a vulnerable country told Climate Home. “We’re now facing a very scary scenario: either no decision at all or a take-it-or-leave-it text creating a very symbolic framework.”

Meanwhile the mitigation work programme has made negligible progress on long-term emissions cutting measures. Again, LMDC and Arab states engaged in what two negotiators described to Climate Home as “clear obstruction tactics”, moving one islander to tears.

Some negotiators and observers told Climate Home they fear adaptation is being held hostage to talks over a possible fossil fuel phase-out.

An LMDC spokesperson rejected that interpretation. “We’ve been negotiating in good faith,” they said. “These are substantive matters with groups wanting to reopen texts that have already been agreed.”

Technical negotiations are due to finish today, with text expected on the adaptation goal and bilateral carbon trading rules.

The latest headlines

• Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks
• Dutch initiative must turn the tables on fossil fuel subsidy reform – Ivetta Gerasimchuk, IISD
• To land fossil phase-out deal, rich nations must add fairness – Andreas Sieber, 350

Netherlands leads subsidy crackdown

Two months ago, thousands of climate activists braved water cannons to block a highway in Dutch capital The Hague in protest at fossil fuel subsidies.

Today, Dutch climate minister Rob Jetten announced twelve countries had signed up to his club to get rid of fossil fuel subsidies.

Those nations include nine Europeans – including France and Spain – Canada, Costa Rica and Antigua and Barbuda. Jetten said others are “sure” to join.

There have been many promises in the past on this, dating back to the G20 in Pittsburgh in 2009. So, IISD’s Ivetta Gerasimchuk writes, the follow-through is vital.

The countries have signed up to developing an agreed methodology and drawing up inventories of subsidies by Cop29. And an annual Cop dialogue on the issue.

Jetten tempered expectations, claiming that “half of all subsidies are tied up in international agreements” and therefore need cooperation to scrap.

And removing subsidies which make everyday things like driving, cooking and heating cheap can be unpopular. After a rise in the cost of driving sparked the “gilets jaunes” protests in 2018, French climate minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher is well aware of this.

She told the press conference today that this must work “for the planet of course” but also “for the people, for the economy, for the social equity and just transition”.

The only developing country minister present was Antigua and Barbuda’s Gaston Browne. He told Climate Home “we burn gasoline and diesel but even if even if it is more expensive that might very well serve as an incentive to go quickly to renewable energy”.

A network of at least 1900 bots on X (formerly Twitter) are promoting Cop28 in English and Arabic, according to analysis by Marc Owen Jones, professor at Hamad bin Khalifa University in Qatar. The bots praise the UAE and Cop president Sultan Al Jaber as climate heroes.

All mouth, no trousers – Analysis by Climate Action Tracker shows that from the flurry of pledges signed in the first week of Cop28, few have the “ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability” needed to keep align with 1.5C. Around a quarter of the emissions reductions promised are additional and achievable, it estimates.

Two conventions, one statement — For the first time, the UN climate and biodiversity conventions joined forces on a common agenda. China, as the presidency behind the Kunming-Montreal nature deal, cosigned a vague pledge with the UAE and 16 other countries to mobilise finance and align planning between nature and climate.

China backs phase-out? – China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua told Reuters that success at Cop28 will depend on whether countries can agree on phasing out fossil fuels. In a pre-Cop statement with the US, China fell short of calling for a phase out.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Adaptation stalemate jeopardises Cop28 outcome appeared first on Climate Home News.

Perhaps it’s inevitable that as Cops get bigger, the action is spread thinner.

It’s not just that the official negotiating agenda, since Paris, is increasingly dwarfed by the trade show.

On the sidelines too, there are only so many sectors you can announce new initiatives for. Only so many net zero targets. At this point, you get to the messy business of implementing them.

The global climate movement has come more single-minded than ever in its focus on a fast and fair fossil fuel phase-out. And it’s getting somewhere. A draft compromise text, for all its caveats, sticks with “phase out” not “phase down”.

But in the vast expanse of the Dubai Expo, that sense of purpose risks evaporating under the harsh desert sun. In a consensus-based process, petrostates could veto language that threatens their core business.

It might not matter if the deals being done on the sidelines were shifting the trillions of dollars needed into renewables and resilience. And maybe they are – not every transaction is press released.

It hardly looks that way from the UAE’s official – and therefore generous – estimate of funds mobilised though: $83 billion.

For context, that’s just over half of the $150bn Adnoc is forecast to invest in oil and gas production this decade, according to Global Witness. Adnoc disputed the analysis, but has never denied it is increasing production. And it’s just one of many oil majors.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is promoting oil-guzzling vehicles across Africa, to prop up future demand.

To make phase-out stick, money needs to flow in the right direction. As ministers arrive to narrow down some 90 options in the global stocktake text, that is fundamental.

The latest headlines

• As fossil fuel phase-out gathers steam, resistance builds
• Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions – Laurence Tubiana and Emmanuel Guerin, European Climate Foundation
• Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short

In brief

Another petrostate Cop? – Armenia said today that it would support Azerbaijan’s bid to host Cop29, as part of peace talks between the two enemies. That removes the major block to Azerbaijan’s candidacy. Azerbaijan gets two-thirds of its revenue from oil and gas, has a bad human rights record and has used expensive PR firms to weaponise environmental issues in its conflict with Armenia.

Putin in parallel – Russian president Vladimir Putin visited the UAE to talk trade and oil with Mohamed bin Zayed. His motorcade and cavalry escort stayed well clear of Cop28. The International Criminal Court has an arrest warrant for Putin over alleged war crimes but the UAE does not recognise its jurisdiction.

You raise me up – Ten multilateral development banks announced they will work together to support country platforms. These coordinate private and public finance around nationally-led investment programmes, for example coal-to-clean plans. This ODI blog explains.

Joined-up diplomacy – The German government has adopted its first strategy on climate foreign policy, aiming to bring trade and economic diplomacy in line with a 1.5C global warming pathway. It will expand a network of core climate embassies and hold regular coordinating meetings between ministers.

Mind the policy gap – UK is set to cut emissions 59% by 2030 from 1990 levels, according to policy analysis by Friends of the Earth, falling short of its 68% target. The gap between target and delivery has widened under the current government, they found.

Oil before zero – Uganda unveiled a net-zero by 2065 plan, advised by the International Energy Agency. The plan also foresees the expansion of oil production, which is set to begin in 2025. The country wants to end energy poverty by 2030.

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Take the energy package. On the defining battle of Cop28 – the fossil fuels conundrum – the draft text lays out two phase out options.

The first simply calls for “an orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels”, reflecting the position of the “high ambition coalition” (France, Kenya, Colombia and others).

The second is wordier. It has qualifiers that give cover to coal, oil and gas: countries should be “accelerating efforts” towards a phase out of “unabated” fossil fuels and “rapidly reducing their use” – but crucially not their production. It’s also more specific about the goal: “net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century.”

On the technology side of the package, the text is setting up a repeat of the horse-trading already seen at the G20 this year. A paragraph calling for the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 is followed by one pushing for the scale-up of the “low-emission technologies” preferred by fossil fuel industries, like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. In Delhi last September the world’s largest economies landed on including both to make everyone happy.

Every paragraph also comes with a “no text” option. This could lead to some “take it or leave it” situations already seen last year in Sharm el-Sheik, observers said. Another iteration of the text is expected today.

Cinderella still waiting for fairy coach

Measures to adapt to climate change have often been called the Cinderella of climate change – ignored and underfed, sitting in rags by the stove while cutting emissions gets all the attention.

And it’s not going to the ball at this Cop either, especially as loss and damage has come strutting in, to hoover up donor governments’ attention and pledges.

The bad news started a few weeks ago when the OECD announced adaptation finance fell 14% between 2020 and 2021.

Then there’s been the Adaptation Fund pledges at Cop28. France and Germany’s are no greater than they were at Cop27 and the US, EU, UK and Japan have yet to chip in.

These don’t seem the actions of governments committed to meeting their Cop26 pledge to double adaptation finance on 2019 levels by 2025.

In global stocktake discussions, some countries want the standing committee on finance to draw up a “roadmap” on how developed countries will meet that target.

A source with knowledge of discussions said developed countries oppose it, as Cop26 only “urges” them to double so its not a commitment.

A group of self-proclaimed “adaptation champion” countries have been looking to multilateral development banks for the funds. They hosted a talk with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank yesterday.

Another source of cash could be carbon markets. But in March, carbon credit sellers like Conservation International and buyers like the BBVA bank fought off an attempt to place a mandatory levy on offsets to fund adaptation.

2021’s adaptation finance figures predate Cop26 and the doubling pledge. We could see better figures for 2022 and meet the goal by 2025.

Even then, it’s a drop in the water. Meeting the goal would be $40 billion a year. The United Nations says adaptation needs will be more like $140-300 billion a year by 2050.

Fossil lobbyist count is in

Figuring out who is and isn’t a fossil fuel lobbyist at Cop28 is painstaking work: over four days a team of researchers, coders and data analysts individually cross-checked 84,000 delegates with public sources for evidence of their fossil fuel interests.

Tears, tantrums, cold pizza slices, vats of coffees and 1.6 million data points were an integral part of the exercise, says Global Witness’ Patrick Galey.

The number he and others in the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition came up with was 2,456.

This is the highest number of coal, oil and gas representatives ever recorded at a UN climate conference. If they were a country, they would form the third largest delegation in Dubai.

In brief

Aussies away… – Australia has promised to stop bankrolling fossil fuel projects overseas with public money. It joins the US, Canada, the UK and many EU states in the Clean Energy Transition Partnership first launched at Cop26. Australia will now have a year to translate words into actions. Most signatories have done so with the notable exception of the US, Germany and Italy.

…and home – It is unclear if and when Canberra will apply similar measures for fossil fuel subsidies at home. Direct spending and tax breaks for producers and users cost Australians an estimated $11.1 billion last year.

Keeping it cool – 60 countries including the US, Canada and Kenya, have signed up to commitments to reduce the climate impact of the cooling sector. Signatories agreed to cut their cooling-related emissions by at least 68% from 2022 to 2050. India and China – two of the world’s largest users of cooling devices – have not joined the coalition.

Doorstepped – Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne was questioned by a campaigner against Total’s East Africa Crude Oil pipeline at Cop28 today. Zaki Mamdoo asked him if he would call on the Ugandan police to release seven student protesters. “That is what we are doing today,” he said.

BOGA grows – Kenya, Spain and Samoa have joined the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance – a coalition of nations led by Denmark and Costa Rica which commit to stop producing oil and gas. None are significant oil and gas producers.

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Striking a firm, and at times exasperated, tone, the oil executive-turned-Cop28 president slammed press reports as “misrepresentations”, the result of “statements taken out of context”.

Al Jaber insisted he had said “over and over that the phase-down and phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable”. But, “how come does this never get picked up [by the media]?” he asked, appearing to have taken the criticism personally.

To reinforce his pro-science credentials, Al Jaber came to the press conference with Jim Skea, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

To nods from the Cop28 president, Skea said that in 1.5C-compatible scenarios “by 2050, fossil fuel use is greatly reduced and unabated coal use is completely phased out.” He added that oil use by 2050 is reduced by 60% and gas by 45%. Al Jaber, Skea said, was “attentive to the science” and “fully understood it”.

The latest headlines

• Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions – Laurence Tubiana and Emmanuel Guerin, European Climate Foundation
• Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short
• US tees up Congress battle with $3bn Green Climate Fund pledge

Event: Reading the politics

At 18:00 Dubai time today, Tuesday 5 December, Climate Home News will review the first week of Cop28 with special guests Vanessa Nakate, Bernice Lee and Harjeet Singh.

Register to watch live on Zoom and submit written questions to the panel.

‘The mother of all cover decisions’

As Cop28 enters the deep negotiations phase, anxiety is kicking in. Work on the crucial global stocktake text proceeds at snail’s pace. This is expected to be the main outcome of the summit, or as lead EU negotiator Jacob Werksman put it, “the mother of all cover decisions”.

It took three days to complete the first read-through of a document that is littered with multiple options and placeholders on every contentious issue.

“We are behind in the negotiating process,” said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, chair of the least developed countries.

Negotiators spent a big chunk of Monday huddled in informal talks trying to chart a path forward. The goal is to hand ministers, landing in Dubai in a couple of days, something easier to work with than a long list of open questions. At time of writing, a new text was expected by Tuesday morning.

Informal negotiations continued on Monday. Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis

The atmosphere is “positive”, three observers told Climate Home, but divisions remain on fundamental issues: the energy package, climate finance and the guidelines for the next round of national climate plans (NDCs).

To some extent, negotiators have got themselves to blame for the long nights ahead. Last June, an extended fight over the agenda in Bonn hindered progress, leaving all the painstaking work to Dubai.

“The fundamental challenge is that we came into Cop28 without a formal negotiating text,” Kaveh Guilanpour, a former lead negotiator for the EU and UK, told Climate Home. “After Bonn, all we had was unagreed headings, and no substantive discussions.”

Banga dismisses fear of the World Bank

One of the biggest concessions developing countries made to get a loss and damage fund up and running was agreeing to let the World Bank initially host it.

Developing countries expressed strong concerns about US dominance of the Bank’s culture and limits that placed on the new fund’s autonomy.

When Climate Home News nabbed president Ajay Banga for a quick interview after a side event, he dismissed such fears as a “misunderstanding”.

“That position is based on the idea that somehow the World Bank will control how that money is put out to work. That’s not the method, which is why they approved it. We’re only a trustee,” Banga said.

“I don’t know where the misunderstanding came from that we somehow will be deciding how the money is used,” he added.

While the World Bank will not dictate funding decisions, the fund’s staff will be Bank employees, which could influence work culture, said Liane Schalatek, Associate Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. World Bank staff could also be seconded to the loss and damage fund.

Michai Robertson, a climate finance negotiator for small island states, remained wary. The “biggest obstacle” for the not-yet-elected board will be negotiating against the World Bank’s policies, he said in a press conference.

“This institution will need to, as its president has highlighted that it’s ready to reform, will need to change,” Robertson said.

In brief

More important things – While dozens of world leaders spoke at Cop28, others stayed away. China’s Xi Jinping was inspecting the coast guard, Canada’s Justin Trudeau was eating Chinese food and campaigning in Ontario, Australia’s Anthony Albanese was calling in to talk radio show in Melbourne and we don’t know what the US’s Joe Biden was doing.

$57bn ‘mobilised’ – The Cop28 presidency claims to have mobilised over $57 billion so far “in new pledges and commitments”. This includes its own $30 billion Alterra Fund and the US’s $3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund. We’re working on a full breakdown.

Hero to fossil – Last year, Brazil’s president Lula got a rock star reception from civil society at Cop27. Today, his Brazilian government was awarded the Fossil of the Day award by campaigners after it moved closer to the OPEC+ group of oil producers.

Emissions up – Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to grow 1.1% in 2023, new research from the Cicero finds. Emissions have grown on average 0.5% a year over the last ten years. Separate research finds 2023 is likely to be the peak.

The post Cop28 bulletin: IPCC chief defends Al Jaber over science firestorm appeared first on Climate Home News.

In a live event with former UN special envoy Mary Robinson in November, Al Jaber momentarily forgot his PR-approved lines and reverted to industry talking points.

“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C,” he said.

He dismissed Robinson’s call for a phase-out as “alarmist” and said it would “take the world back into caves”.

Leading scientists Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Michael Mann wrote Al Jaber an open letter in response.

Speaking for the climate system, “the most difficult party… which has only red lines and no flexibility,” they said, “humanity needs to phase out fossil fuels by 2050”.

Carbon capture and storage can only mitigate “a very small fraction” of fossil fuel emissions, the letter said.

That last point is critical, as the oil and gas sector cites scenarios that show some residual fossil fuel use with CCS to justify production on a much larger scale.

Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, unpacks the CCS myth together with Emmanuel Guerin in an article for Climate Home News.

“People in the oil and gas industry know there is zero probability of [a] high-CCS scenario coming true,” they write. “The reality is they are just fooling us one more time, to buy time we can’t afford to waste in dealing with the climate crisis.”

Al Jaber’s slip of the tongue shows why precision matters in negotiations. Phase down can mean something very different to phase out, and “unabated” fossil fuels need further defining.

The latest headlines

• Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions – Laurence Tubiana and Emmanuel Guerin, European Climate Foundation
• Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short
• US tees up Congress battle with $3bn Green Climate Fund pledge

Health at the table

In a Cop first, health ministers took over plenary discussions on Sunday. Over 120 countries have signed a health declaration coordinated by the Cop28 presidency.

The declaration, and most ministerial statements, focused on strengthening healthcare systems as a means of climate adaptation.

It does not mention fossil fuels, or how burning coal, oil and gas releases harmful air pollutants besides greenhouse gases.

Sweden was one country to join the dots. “A decision here at Cop28 to phase out fossil fuels will contribute to [health] outcomes. The health of people and the planet cannot be separated,” said Mattias Frumerie, Swedish head of delegation.

Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, head of climate and health at the World Health Organization, took the same view in a press conference.

“Talking about action on climate change without talking about fossil fuels is like talking about lung cancer without mentioning tobacco,” he said.

The ministerial plenary is an “important and delayed step”, but health discussions need to start mentioning fossil fuels, said Dr Arvind Kumar, founder of the Lung Care Foundation. Otherwise “the problem will not get solved”.

“Little cosmetic changes here and there are not going to make much of a difference,” he said.

In brief

Bad excuse? – Brazilian president Lula da Silva said in a meeting with NGOs that he is joining OPEC to “convince oil producing countries that they need to prepare for the end of fossil fuels”. Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro argued oil producers already know they have to move past oil.

Big polluters – Electricity generation in China and India, and oil and gas production in the US caused the biggest emissions rises since 2015, analysis published by Climate Trace shows. The figures are based on a database of 352 million emissions sources. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement emissions grew 8.6%.

Slow entrance – Crowds have eased at Cop28 since world leaders left town, yet long queues at the entrance still held up negotiations, Earth News Bulletin reports. More than 100,000 delegates are registered for Cop28, according to UN Climate Change.

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In one of the last speeches of the day, US vice-president Kamala Harris promised $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, claiming the country is “a leader in the effort to expand international climate finance”.

Now she has to get it past Republicans in Congress, something that kept the US from delivering all of Barack Obama’s 2014 $3 billion pledge.

Italy, Switzerland, Portugal and Estonia have also announced GCF contributions at Cop28.

Several world leaders condemned Israel’s resuming attacks on Gaza, among them Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and South Africa. Harris skipped an event on energy transition to attend talks on the developing situation.

‘Greenwashing’ oil and gas initiative

Sultan Al Jaber’s much-touted Oil and Gas Charter “to speed up climate action in the industry” has seen the light of day.

Fifty oil and gas majors, representing 40% of global production, have committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 from their operations. That ignores the emissions caused by burning the stuff – 80-95% of the sector’s carbon footprint.

Other targets are ending routine flaring by 2030, and near-zero upstream methane emissions. Many oil majors, Al Jaber’s Adnoc included, have failed to implement bans on routine flaring.

Barbados’s prime minister Mia Mottley used her speech to target methane. Two years after a global methane pledge was launched in Glasgow, she said, “the global methane agreement that the world needs to see has not yet come.”

Mottley called for regulation and compliance – not voluntary commitments – to make oil and gas companies fix pipelines and stop flaring.

A group of 320 civil society organisations has written a letter to the Cop28 presidency saying the initiative should be dropped as it “serves primarily to greenwash the fossil fuel industry”.

In brief

Going nuclear – Twenty-two countries have pledged to collectively triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050 from 2023 levels. They include the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, UAE, UK and France.

Holy phase out – Pope Francis pleaded with Cop28 delegates to drop fossil fuels and engage in “lifestyles that are less dependent” on them. He was scheduled to deliver a speech in Dubai but pulled out due to health issues. Cardinal Pietro Parolin read his remarks instead.

Oil stays at home – Norway joined a group of countries pledging to stop financing fossil fuels internationally. The Clean Energy Transition Partnership, formed in 2021, has 40 members including the US, Canada and several EU countries.

Best forests forever – Brazil launched its proposal for a global fund to protect tropical forests in up to 80 countries. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility would mobilize at least $250 billion in existing resources and pay for conserved tropical forests in member countries.

Better late than never – The US has signed on to Powering Past Coal Alliance. Japan is now the only G7 country that has not committed to phasing out unabated coal power, although its prime minister Fumio Kishida said it would stop building unabated coal power plants.

Keep it in the ground – Colombia joined a group of nine countries calling for an international treaty to leave fossil fuels on the ground. It is the only fossil fuel producer among member countries, which consist mostly of small island states.

Bridgetown to IDB – Mottley’s climate adviser Avinash Persaud has announced he will leave government to become climate adviser to the Inter-American Development Bank’s president, starting 16 January.

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Other options are to “phase down” all fossil fuels, to focus purely on coal or to say nothing at all. The coin is in the air.

The text is in response to the global stocktake of progress to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

The draft recognises that current policies have made some progress to avoid the worst climate change scenarios, but “notes with significant concern” that we’re still not in line with the Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C.  

Russia wants a “phase out” to be removed from the text, saying it would “discriminate” against their economy. The Cop28 presidency has used language suggesting preference for a “phase down” of fossil fuels. 

The global stocktake text also proposes to end fossil fuel subsidies with “fairness”, as well as tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency — two goals that have attracted broad support.  

Some bits did not make it into the draft, observers said. While the text does have a target for cutting emissions by 2030, it does not include a medium-term target for 2035. The IPCC says the world must cut emissions by 60% by then to keep us in with a chance of meeting the 1.5°C target.

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Circus comes to town 

More than 150 world leaders arrived in Dubai for day 2 of Cop28, where they announced modest funding pledges and bids for future Cops – but no new emissions targets. 

Their presence was felt by delegates on the ground. Parts of the venue were blocked for leaders to move, forcing people to take longer routes and cutting off access to a section of the conference. Journalists were told they needed special tickets and escorts to enter the main press conference room. 

The day started with a Climate Ambition Summit. UN chief Antonio Guterres took the stage to urge leaders to agree on a fossil fuel phase out. “Not reduce. Not abate. Phase out – with a clear timeframe aligned with 1.5 degrees,” he said. 

Then came the usual parade of national leaders. They had been urged to keep their speeches to three minutes, but some had a lot to say. France’s Emmanuel Macron and Kenya’s William Ruto went on more than four times the limit. 

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi pitched to host Cop33 in 2028. He announced a “green credits initiative” meant to go “beyond the commercial mindset of carbon credits”, without giving much detail about how. 

Brazilian president Lula da Silva boasted about his wins reducing deforestation by a third in his first year. He did not mention the country’s oil and gas expansion plans for 2030 or setting the stage to join OPEC in 2024. 

Some governments announced contributions to the new loss and damage fund, among them Italy ($108 million) and Canada ($8 million). World Bank CEO Ajay Banga, who will act as interim host of the fund, said the total pledged “isn’t going to get us very far” but money would start reaching people on the ground next year.

While tripling renewable energy was a common message in the leaders’ speeches, wording was less clear about phasing out fossil fuels, said E3G analyst Tom Evans. 

The post Cop28 bulletin: Fossil fuel phaseout is on the table appeared first on Climate Home News.

There were a few complaints from negotiators. But the hard-fought compromise struck in Abu Dhabi three weeks ago held, with the World Bank the interim host of the yet-to-be-named fund.

The UAE set an example by contributing $100 million of a little over $400m in pledges.

With that potentially contentious matter out of the way – and the agenda agreed – public attention will now focus squarely on the issue of fossil fuels and their phase out.

Al Jaber addressed the issue in his opening speech. Negotiators, he said, “must look for ways and ensure the inclusion of the role of fossil fuels”.

He acknowledged “strong views” on having fossil fuels in the text and added that “we collectively have the power to do something unprecedented – in fact, we have no choice but to go the very unconventional way”.

He got some applause for saying he is laser-focused on the “north star” of limiting global warming to 1.5C. He did not mention the International Energy Agency’s verdict that that means no new fossil fuel production.

He added that his presidency “made a bold choice to engage with oil and gas companies”, having difficult discussions with them and now “many” are committed to “near zero” methane emissions by 2030 and have adopted net zero by 2050 targets.

This is a reference to the Cop28 oil and gas decarbonisation accelerator, which is supposed to launch next week. Most publicly-listed oil majors already have net zero targets – but most of those do not include the emissions from burning their products.

Both as Cop28 boss and oil company CEO, Al Jaber’s focus is on producing oil and gas in a cleaner way not producing less.

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Reality check

Before Al Jaber’s speech, Cop28 began on a personal note. Cop27 president Sameh Shoukry called the room to its feet for a moment’s silence for Saleemul Huq, Pete Betts and “all civilians who have perished during the current conflict in Gaza”. The UK, EU and Bangladeshi delegations then gave touching tributes to their former colleagues.

After reflecting on the successes of his presidency, Shoukry issued a “reality check” aimed at rich nations. “Most of what we bring forward as tangible solutions and actionable commitments is based on speculation or well wishes,” he said.

He gave examples of these “mere assumptions”: that rich countries will provide $100 billion in climate finance, that the loss and damage fund will raise billions of dollars and that international financial institutions will be reformed.

In fact, he said climate finance is decreasing in relation to developing countries’ growing needs. Weak replenishment rounds for the Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund “are but two examples of this worrying trend”.

He finished by criticising countries that are expanding fossil fuel production despite saying they would phase coal out. He didn’t name names but the UK’s proposed coal mine springs to mind or the US, Canada and Australia planning to increase oil and gas production.

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Their Uber rides are taking them along highways flanked by banners from Saudi Arabia’s Green Initiative, urging them to visit their pavilion. 

Many are popping in their complimentary sim cards, handed over with your passport by immigration officials. 

But others are suspicious of this free gift. With the UAE’s reputation for cyber-spying, there’s talk of VPNs, burner phones and not using the venue’s wifi, QR codes or app (after last year’s controversy). 

Whether its paranoia or they’re really out to get us, many are taking precautions. 

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On the defensive 

And Sultan Al Jaber thinks they’re out to get him too. The Center for Climate Reporting revealed that talking points were drawn up for him for Cop28 meetings with foreign governments, which included lobbying for fossil fuel deals for the oil and gas company he heads. 

Asked about it in a press conference yesterday, Al Jaber laughed and said the reporting was “an attempt to undermine the work of the Cop28 presidency”. 

While he did not dispute the authenticity of the talking points prepared for him, he claimed he had not seen them and did not use them. He added that he and the UAE didn’t need the Cop28 presidency to make business deals.

Sultan Al Jaber addresses questions at a press conference yesterday (Photo credit: Kiara Worth/UNFCCC)

Agenda agreed 

Al Jaber’s diplomats appear to have passed their first test with flying colours, as they persuaded negotiators not to add new items to the Cop28 agenda. 

Groups of developing countries put a series of issues forward as agenda items including developed countries scaling up finance and opposition to trade measures like the EU’s carbon border tax. 

But they appear to have been persuaded that these priorities will be discussed elsewhere on the agenda. 

So the opening ceremony should begin this morning as planned and adopting the agenda should now be just a formality – in contrast with the nine-day debate in Bonn earlier this year. 

Compared to the leaders’ speeches tomorrow, the ceremony will be a relatively low-key affair but it is the moment Sultan Al Jaber turns from Cop28 president-designate to Cop28 president. 

He will make a speech which is his moment to lay out what he wants from the summit. After the latest revelations, any language on fossil fuels will be watched carefully. 

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