Christopher Dabu, a priest in Lusitu parish in southern Zambia, one of the affected regions, said that because of the drought, his parishioners “have nothing”- including their staple food.

“Almost every day, there’s somebody who comes here to knock on this gate asking for mielie meal, [saying] ‘Father, I am dying of hunger’,” Dabu told Climate Home outside his church last month.

The government and some humanitarian agencies were quick to blame the lack of rain on climate change.

Zambia’s green economy minister Collins Nzovu told reporters in March, “there’s a lot of infrastructure damage as a result of climate change”. He added that the new UN-backed loss and damage fund, now being set up to help climate change victims, “must speak to this”.

Reverend Christopher Dabu outside his church in Lusitu, Zambia (Photo: Joe Lo)

But last week, scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group published a study which found that “climate change did not emerge as the significant driver” of the current drought affecting Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Angola, Mozambique and Botswana.

Instead, they concluded that the El Niño phenomenon – which occurs every few years with warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean – was the drought’s “key driver”. They said the damage was worsened by the vulnerabilities of the countries affected, including reliance on rain-fed farming rather than irrigation.

Nonetheless, briefing journalists on the study, co-authors Joyce Kimutai and Friederike Otto said climate change does make El Niños stronger and more frequent – and therefore could be playing an indirect role in the southern African drought. Otto noted that climate change “might have a small role but not a big one”.

While WWA studies have often found that disasters like this are driven by climate change, there have been other cases where they have played down that link – as with droughts in Brazil in 2014 and Madagascar in 2021, and floods in Italy in 2023.

The complex nature of the science raises a dilemma for those now designing the fledgling loss and damage fund.

Its board holds its first meeting in Abu Dhabi this week. In three days of talks, the board’s 26 members will discuss the fund’s name and how to decide where it will be hosted and who will lead it. Trickier issues like the role of climate change attribution will be left to future meetings.

Climate Home spoke to several experts and two of the fund’s board members, whose opinions were divided on whether the link between climate change and a particular disaster should have to be proven before funds are dished out to affected communities.

Droughts and climate change

Egyptian climate negotiator Mohamed Nasr, a member of the new fund’s board, said he thought triggers for funding “would include the climate relation to the losses and damages”.

But to judge that connection, he said the board would “rely on confirmed science per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) rather than individual studies”. He said the IPCC and UNEP “provide the scientific reference needed as they bring all views and assess the credibility and scientific basis”.

Peak COP? UN looks to shrink Baku and Belém climate summits

The IPCC does not do original research, including attribution studies, but every five to seven years it compiles existing research to reach conclusions about climate change, including its impacts. The last IPCC report focused on that topic in 2022 said “increases in drought frequency and duration are projected over large parts of southern Africa”.

UNEP currently does not conduct attribution studies, with a spokesperson saying this was “due to resource constraints” but adding “we hope to do more in the future”.

Another loss and damage fund board member, who wanted to remain anonymous, said the fund should only disburse money for loss and damage caused by climate change. But they asserted that due to the “chicken and egg” link between climate change and El Niño, the current southern African drought is climate-driven and so its victims should be entitled to funding.

‘Theoretical disputes’

Mattias Söderberg, who works for humanitarian organisation DanChurchAid – which has been defining and addressing loss and damage since 2019 – said attribution “is not always easy”.

But, he added, “people facing disasters should not be left behind because of theoretical disputes about attribution”.

Speaking ahead of a visit to a Kenyan refugee camp for people displaced by what he calls “loss and damage and climate-related conflicts”, he said, “I’m pretty sure they will be frustrated if they knew funding to help them cope could be questioned.”

The loss and damage fund, with advice from scientists, should draw up categories of disaster that tend to be driven by climate change – like heatwaves and droughts but excluding earthquakes which are not, he added.

Tensions rise over who will contribute to new climate finance goal

Zoha Shawoo, who researches loss and damage at the Stockholm Environment Institute, said that even if climate change played only a small role in the latest southern Africa drought, previous climate disasters had made the region’s people more vulnerable to the drought.

In addition, the current dry spell leaves them more vulnerable to future climate disasters, she added. “If they don’t receive financial support for recovery, future losses and damages will be a lot worse,” she said.

Gernot Laganda, director for climate and resilience at the UN’s World Food Programme, said that a formal attribution requirement for the loss and damage fund feels like “overkill” for a still relatively small fund. Transaction costs should be kept as low as possible, he added.

Data gaps

Kimutai, who worked on the WWA study, said she was confident the group had enough data to reach its conclusions on this particular drought. But she told a webinar hosted by the CGIAR agricultural research centre last month that a lack of data in many poorer countries means a funding requirement of attribution to global warming would be “detrimental to climate justice”.

In 2022, WWA was unable to work out the role of climate change in a drought in the Sahel region of Africa, partly blaming a lack of data. One of the drought-hit countries was Mali – which is three times the size of Germany. Mali has just 13 active weather stations, while Germany has 200, according to Bloomberg.

Limiting frontline voices in the Loss and Damage Fund is a recipe for disaster

Kimutai added that, besides data, there is a lack of expertise in doing these kinds of studies in the Global South.

Any moves to deny funds to vulnerable people impacted by drought – whatever the causes – are likely to be met with anger. Speaking to journalists about the southern Africa emergency a few days after the WWA study was issued, Chikwe Mbweeda, Zambia director for the aid agency CARE, said that “for us, we definitely understand that [the drought] is coming from the climate change effects”.

(Reporting by Joe Lo; editing by Megan Rowling)

The post Southern Africa drought flags dilemma for loss and damage fund appeared first on Climate Home News.

The dire outlook for Argentina’s renowned higher education system under President Javier Milei, a right-wing populist, was highlighted on April 22 – Earth Day – by Argentine plant ecologist Pedro Jaureguiberry, who was announced as a finalist in the prestigious Frontiers Planet Prize.

​“The current budget for universities in 2024 is insufficient, adding to the fact that in recent years we have only received 20% of the budget we asked for conducting research at our lab,” Jaureguiberry,  an assistant researcher with the Multidisciplinary Institute of Plant Biology at the National University of Córdoba (UNC), told Climate Home.

The 44-year-old scientist, who has spent his entire academic career in Argentina, was shortlisted for the award as one of 23 national champions drawn from science research teams across six continents, in recognition of a study he led on the drivers of human-caused biodiversity loss.

Dr Jaureguiberry conducting fieldwork in central western Argentina. (Photo: Diego Gurvich)

Of the finalists, three international winners will be announced in June in Switzerland, receiving prize money of $1.1 million each for their role in groundbreaking scientific research.

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With annual inflation running close to 300%, this year’s freeze on Argentina’s government budget for universities and scientific research amounts to a spending cut in real terms of around 80%, according to the University of Buenos Aires, which this month declared itself in an “economic emergency”.

On Tuesday, university teaching staff and students, backed by trade unions, will march in Buenos Aires and other cities “in defence of public education”, which they say faces a grave threat from the budget squeeze.

Met office hit by layoffs

Argentine meteorologist Carolina Vera, former vice-chair of a key working group responsible for the latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that in four decades of teaching and research she had never seen “such a level of dismantling through the reduction of research grants and programs with such disdain for knowledge”.

“This is very serious for atmospheric and ocean sciences, key to issues such as climate change, placing a whole new generation of meteorologists and climatologists in danger,” she told Climate Home from Trevelin, in the southern province of Chubut.

There has been widespread condemnation of 86 layoffs affecting administrative and other contractors at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), while Vera added that she is concerned about the situation at the National Meteorological Service, where 73 technicians have been let go. That, she warned, would affect the functionality of early warning and disaster prevention systems.

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Climatic and meteorological challenges are increasing in Argentina, from heavy rains due to the El Niño weather phenomenon – which has caused an ongoing dengue epidemic – to extreme heat and wildfires.

A significant drought is forecast for the southern hemisphere summer of 2024-2025, from November to February, as El Niño gives way to an expected La Niña, with the National Meteorological Service having a key role to play in predicting conditions and disseminating information about them ahead of time.

Vera added that the budget restrictions on CONICET would also limit its research capabilities, particularly relating to climate change. “​We hope that this will be reversed soon,” she added.

Greenlight for extractive industries

Milei has branded climate change a “socialist lie” since 2021 and has also questioned public education for “brainwashing people” with Marxist ideology.

Sergio Federovisky, deputy minister of environment during the previous presidency of Alberto Fernández, said Milei is not only disdainful of scientific views on global warming but also on broader environmental protection. For example, Milei – a former university professor and television pundit – said during his presidential campaign that “a company can pollute a river all it wants”.

“Climate denialism is not a scientific position, but rather an argument used to release all types of extractive actions that could be hindered by an environmental policy on the use of natural resources and the concentration of wealth,” Federovisky told Climate Home from Buenos Aires.

Meeting between Argentine President Javier Milei and Elon Musk in Texas, United States, at the Tesla factory on April 12 2024, forging a partnership through which the government is betting on attracting investment to Argentina. (Photo: Prensa Casa Rosada via / Latin America News Agency / Reuters)

In an economic review published on February 1, which unlocked $4.7 billion to support the new government’s policies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed its support for investment to increase the exploitation of oil and gas reserves and metals mining in Argentina, in order to boost exports and government revenues.

World Bank head Ajay Banga told journalists before last week’s Spring Meetings that the Argentine economy is going through a “whole economic realignment”. The bank “is supportive of the direction of that economy” and looks forward “to working closely with their leadership to help them as they go forward”, he added.

Yet he also noted that the bank’s latest review of economic prospects for the region highlighted challenges, including the impacts of Argentina’s correction, with regional GDP projected to expand by 1.6 percent in 2024, one of the lowest rates in the world and insufficient to drive prosperity.

World Bank climate funding greens African hotels while fishermen sink

The IMF’s support for Milei’s neoliberal economic policies has been strongly criticised by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), which said on Friday that fiscal austerity “is not the answer when people’s lives and their democratic rights are at stake”.

“The IMF is celebrating the budget surplus in Argentina, but it’s indefensible to ignore the human cost of this economic shock therapy,” the ITUC’s General Secretary Luc Triangle said in a statement.

“Pensions have been slashed, thousands of public sector workers fired, public services are on the verge of collapse, unemployment is growing and food poverty spreading.”

Last week the government attempted to head off Tuesday’s protest by announcing a last-minute budget increase for maintenance costs for universities. But that was rejected by a national council of rectors and has not deterred the movement against the austerity measures, with large numbers set to come out onto the streets as planned.

(Reporting by Julián Reingold; editing by Megan Rowling)

The post Argentinian scientists condemn budget cuts ahead of university protest appeared first on Climate Home News.

By John McGarrity

Last year was the among the top ten warmest on record, further evidence of a “undeniable” underlying warming trend as record high temperatures were recorded in Australia and the US, said the UN-run World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in a report today.

 The WMO said 2013 was the sixth warmest year on record, as the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.50°C (0.90°F) above the 1961–1990 average, adding that the Arctic Ocean was far warmer than usual last year.

“The global temperature for the year 2013 is consistent with the long term warming trend,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

He added: “The rate of warming is not uniform but the underlying trend is undeniable. Given the record amounts of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, global temperatures will continue to rise for generations to come,” said Mr Jarraud.

Without big cuts to the amount of carbon being pumped into the atmosphere, runaway climate change could lead to widespread drought, famine, and mass migrations impacting hundreds of millions or even billions of people, the UN and other international institutions such as the World Bank have warned.

In brief: latest IPCC report condensed to 12 key tweets

The WMO’s report comes against the backdrop of claims last year by climate sceptics that temperature data suggested a pause in global warming from 1998 onwards.

However scientists who accept that manmade greenhouse emissions are changing the world’s climate have explained away the apparent anomaly by pointing to the extra amounts of heat that deep oceans are soaking up.

“More than 90 percent of the excess heat being caused by human activities is being absorbed by the ocean,” the WMO statement said.

The International Panel on Climate Change warned last year that warming oceans are likely to raise sea levels, potentially causing huge economic damage and loss of life to coastal populations in future decades.

“Our action – or inaction – to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases will shape the state of our planet for our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren,” said Mr Jarraud.

Meanwhile marine experts warn that fish stocks that are an important food source for billions of people could collapse because of rapidly warming oceans.

Extremes

The UN’s Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon is making a strong push this year for countries to commit to deep cuts in carbon emissions from 2020 and agree a global deal in Paris at the end of 2015.

Some industries and politicians that oppose tough targets in a new climate treaty have argued that the pace of global warming may have been exaggerated, or that extreme temperatures are the result of natural variations in the world’s weather patterns.

US President Barack Obama in his annual State of the Union address last week refrained from linking recent weird weather such as Janaury’s ‘Polar Vortex’ to climate change, but chose to remind sceptics that climate change is a “fact”.

The post Global warming “undeniable’ say UN as data reveals 2013 sixth hottest on record appeared first on Climate Home News.

Alaska’s climate is not cooling, contrary to media reports based on partial conclusions of a new scientific paper.

The study identifies a decadal scale trend in ocean surface temperatures in the north Pacific, which is periodically cancelling out rises caused by man-made climate change.

This has been interpreted by some media, including the UK’s Daily Mail as a sign that climate change does not exist, despite the same scientific study, written by Alaska Climate Research Center, noting that the state has in fact warmed at twice the global average in the past 100 years, in line with trends noted throughout polar regions.

Denali or Mt McKinley, is the highest peak in North America. Alaska, like other polar regions, is experiencing enhanced warming. (Source: Flickr/blmiers2)

“In summary, the long term observed warming of Alaska of about twice the global value, as expected by the increasing CO2 and other trace gases, is sometimes temporarily modified or even reversed by natural decadal variations,” the original research says.

A similar such cold period occurred in Alaska starting in the 1940s.

However, the Mail’s headline is: “What global warming? Alaska is headed for an ice age as scientists report state’s steady temperature decline.”

It then contradicts that title in the first sentence of the article by acknowledging the overall increase in temperatures, when averaged across the earth’s surface.

“New research from the Alaska Climate Research Center shows that since the beginning of the 21st century, temperatures in the snow covered land of Alaska are actually getting colder – bucking the overall global warming trend,” reads the story.

Climate is typically determined using data from 40 year periods to account for the numerous smaller, and shorter scale variations that interact with it.

A cherry-picked story about the medieval warm period was misinterpreted last March, leaving the author Dr Zunli Lu, to issue a follow-up statement that the research had “been misrepresented by a number of media outlets” calling this “unfortunate”.

The post Alaskan climate warming despite claims of new ‘ice age’ appeared first on Climate Home News.

Indigenous communities are both victims of climate change and agents of change.

Compromising just 4% of the world’s population, they use 22% of its land surface and maintain 80% of its biodiversity in or adjacent to 85% of Earth’s protected areas.

The land used by indigenous communities also contains hundreds of gigatonnes of carbon.

The communities are great observers of the natural environment and interpreters of the changes to it. More and more their role in the fight against climate change is being acknowledged.

In 2007, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution entitled the ‘Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples’, highlighting the role of communities in decision making processes.

But still today, the voice of indigenous communities remains small.

One group of young scientists from across Africa aims to strengthen this voice. They want to use research and information to highlight the important role these communities have to play across the continent.

As part of RTCC’s youth profile series I spoke to Thabit Jacob, a student from Tanzania and chair of the African Young Scientists Initiative on Climate Change and Indigenous Knowledge Systems (AYSICCIKS) about how indigenous knowledge can compliment modern science and help tackle climate change.

What is your group doing and what areas of work do you focus on?

Our group is working to empower young African scientists and youth to effectively respond to climate change in their countries and communities.

The group is focusing on strengthening indigenous knowledge all over Africa to help towards climate adaptation and mitigation. We think that indigenous African knowledge is not emphasised very much in the plans for mitigation and adaptation so our whole initiative is aimed at strengthening this knowledge.

For centuries Africans have been naturally adapting to and mitigating climate change through their own way of doing things and we feel this knowledge should be used.

These include early warning systems – using the behaviour of living organisms – short-term weather monitoring cycles; climatic variability experiences; the use of appropriate livestock breeds and, plant varieties; and resource management practices, for example mixed cropping practices.

We do a lot of research, information dissemination and community engagement and outreach. Basically we are trying to work with young people from across different African universities and also youth who are not involved in education.

In 2011 we were able to bring together more than 65 young scientists in Johannesburg in South Africa to share the  findings of their research.

Young people from across 20 countries the continent shared their research findings on the role of indigenous knowledge for climate adaptation and mitigation; climate change and vulnerable groups; climate change, food security and health; the role of biodiversity and conservation; and issues of climate change and social conflict.

What results have you seen from your work so far?

One of the things is that we have really been able to do is mobilise young people, young scientists from across vast parts of the continent, to highlight and strengthen the role of indigenous knowledge through research.

This is very important. We have a lot of young people in advocacy and campaigning but very few young people are actually doing research that is informing climate change policy and their own communities’ considerations. This is one of our main results.

We have created a real interest among African youth to engage in the fight against climate change, we are creating an interest in this among young people.

Back in December last year we organised a side event during the COP17 UN climate talks in Durban. The whole idea was to have a round-table for young people to discuss the way forward from an African perspective and the role of indigenous knowledge on climate change.

This year a few of us were also able to attend the Rio+20 meeting and do another side event very much with the same message, trying to showcase the work that young African scientists are doing to be part of the climate change solution.

Right now we are working on how we can also be part of COP18 in Qatar. We are trying to reach as many young Africans from different universities as possible, to see if we can cooperate in Doha and mobilise more research findings from different young people.

One of the other things that we also started last year was a database of African scientists and youth involved in climate change to facilitate network building. When we are talking about indigenous knowledge, this knowledge is actually held by the older generation. Last year we set it up a meeting so that the elders and the young people could share their ideas.

Africans, particularly the older generations, believe in different methods. So for the first time we were able to bring young people and these knowledge holders together to try to learn from each other and that was really interesting.

The group brought African scientists and youth from across Africa together in Johannesburg to share their ideas and research (Source: AYSICCIK)

What are the challenges you have faced in your work?

The one thing which we think is still a challenge for all of us is not having enough experience. I am a young person myself and this whole group is all about young people and most of us are not particularly experienced. We can not call ourselves experienced so we really need the membership of people who have had much more experience in climate change research.

I think this is something which is really a problem, we need to have more experienced researchers to work with and that would be really brilliant. This is one of the issues we see as a challenge right now.

Another challenge is working with young people from different countries across the continent. Being able to connect can be time and resource intensive.

The whole initiative is based out of South Africa and being able to get around and contact people across Africa can be expensive and time consuming. Our funding is not huge. I am not paid, I am just doing this out of passion.

We are trying to reach as many young Africans as possible so we created a social network for the group, a Facebook page. But this has not been as effective as we anticipated as African communities are limited because the connectivity is different in different parts of the continent. As a whole it is still not very connected. So this is another issue we have been having.

What support have you had for your activities?

Our initiative has seen a lot of support from government and multilateral organisations. Last year we received massive support from the department of science and technology of the government of South Africa. They were able to provide us with funding and they are still very much a part of the initiative.

And also we look at the New Partnership for African Development; they have also been very supportive of our initiative. We have seen a lot of support right now, especially from governments.

What are the impacts you are seeing in your country from climate change?

I think it is important to note that we are seeing a lot of climate variability in Tanzania – you cannot really call it entirely climate change. We are seeing different weather parameters.

Drought is one of the things we are experiencing. At the end of 2005 and 2006 there was a severe drought that led to the decrease in agricultural production. People have been having trouble with rising food prices.

We can also talk about increasing frequency of foods. We have seen flood incidences increasing, which is impacting local infrastructure, homes and crops.

In my country we rely very much on hydro-power and the variability of rainfall affects our ability to provide energy. Two years back the whole country was having black-outs for a day or two at a time.

But also we are seeing temperatures slightly increasing. This was something we didn’t have 20 years back. This has created favourable conditions for mosquitoes and malaria.

What would be your vision for 2050?

Members of AYSICCIK shared their research with fellow scientists and youth campaigners at the COP18 climate summit last December (Source: AYSICCIK)

Our vision is very clear. We want to see that indigenous knowledge is firmly at the centre of our governments’ interventions on climate change adaptation and mitigation.

We also think that indigenous knowledge should complement modern solutions. We are not trying to fight against modern technologies or solutions but we want to see both of these knowledge types working together. So indigenous knowledge complementing modern science.

The group also supports the move to low carbon growth and also finally we need to see urgency in the global efforts and more political will to fight climate change and more youth engagement, as we are one of the most vulnerable groups when it comes to this issue.

We are working on a programme to have the voice of young people at COP18. We are trying to do this is by sharing solutions on climate change problems. These solutions reflect the collaborative research conducted by our members from different parts of the continent.

But also the initiative for COP18 is based on the fact there are so many issues from COP17 – especially on climate change finance, the issue of the Green Climate Fund – and these are issues which very much affect Africa, we need to see some progress at COP18.

What would help your group to move forward in its work?

We need to reach out to as many young scientists and young people in Africa as possible. In this regard financial assistance will be vital.

We also need to ensure that young scientists are mentored by much more experienced researchers.

Why did you get involved in the group? What do you think youth groups’ role is in the climate/environmental agenda?

I got involved in this group because I believe climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our time. I also believe young African scientists and youth in general can play a crucial role in raising awareness about climate change through research, dissemination and outreach programmes.

Youth in Africa have played a crucial role in various socio-economic activities but their contributions have always been undermined and their capacities are being underestimated due to poor information sharing. Our initiative is doing its best to give young African scientists a voice to share their contribution in addressing the problem of climate change

Youth groups can play various roles in the climate agenda as activists, researchers and peer-to-peer debates on climate change.

More RTCC Youth Profiles:

Youth Profile #17: The African youth group driving climate adaptation in rural communities

Youth Profile #16: Inspiring climate change action through education in Africa

Youth Profile #15: Canadian youth rise above dirty domestic policies and push for climate action

Youth Profile #14: Costa Rica’s youth eye a carbon neutral future

Youth Profile #13: Giving youth a platform at the European Parliament

Youth Profile #12: European activists demand governments put their futures ahead of ‘dirty industry’

Youth Profile #11: China’s young activists out to prove they do care about climate change

Youth Profile #10: Life on climate change’s frontline with the Australian Youth Climate Coalition

Youth Profile #9: Young entrepreneurs driving sustainability at US campuses

Youth Profile #8: Why education is key to developing climate awareness in Ghana

Youth Profile #7: Why Indonesia’s biodiversity is at the front line of the fight against climate change

Youth Profile #6: Meet the African coalition that brings together 54 countries to tackle climate change

Youth Profile #5: Bangladeshi youth fight to give world’s second most climate vulnerable country a voice

Youth Profile #4: Nepal’s youth fight to save Himalayan paradise from effects of pollution and climate change

Youth Profile #3: Canada’s climate coalition on taking on the Tar Sands lobby and fighting for Kyoto

Youth Profile #2: How PIDES are working on practical solutions to climate change in Mexico

Youth Profile #1: How Nigerian Climate Coalition are building green bridges ahead of COP18

The post The young African scientists linking modern research with indigenous wisdom appeared first on Climate Home News.

Black carbon particles could absorb significantly less sunlight than previously thought, say researchers, reducing their predicted impacts on atmospheric warming.

In a study, published in the journal Science, researchers found that while previous estimates suggest absorption-boosting chemicals surrounding black carbon, or soot, could increase the sunlight soaked up by a factor of two – 200% – this increase in absorption could in fact be a low as 6%.

Black carbon could have less of an impact on atmospheric warming than previously thought (Source: fun.leo/Creative Commons)

The team, who analysed air samples in the Californian cities of San Francisco, Los Angeles and Sacramento, said black carbon would still have a significant effect on global and regional climate.

Previous studies have put the warming effects of black carbon second only to carbon dioxide.

Unlike carbon dioxide – which can survive in the atmosphere for decades and centuries – black carbon has a short life span of around two to three weeks.

It is part of a group called Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) which also includes methane and ozone.

During their lifetime, black carbon particles are coated in airborne fragments that tests have shown act like lenses capable of increasing the particles ability to absorb sunlight – and therefore heat the atmosphere.

The latest study will question the work which is going into targeting these short-lived gases – considered quick wins for those tackling climate change on both a global and regional level.

In February 2012 the US launched a voluntary emissions reduction scheme aimed at cutting black carbon and other SLCFs in developing countries. Seventeen nations are now signed up to the scheme including Sweden, Canada, Ghana, Bangladesh, Mexico and the UK.

The researchers say this latest study opens up the stage for further studies around the world to better understand the impact of these chemical coatings.

“When you put a soot particle into the atmosphere, we know it contains an elemental carbon component and we know that its absorption will be based on mass and size,” says Timothy Onasch from Boston College.

“But black carbon particles in the air are constantly changing. They collect inorganic and organic materials, they grow, change shapes and change composition. These changes affect the absorption or warming capability of the black carbon. So the question remains: to what extent exactly?”

Related Articles:

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Soot and methane reduction could slow global warming, says NASA study

Hilary Clinton launches voluntary non-CO2 emissions reduction scheme

The post Black carbon could impact atmospheric warming less than previously thought, say researchers appeared first on Climate Home News.

Cultural beliefs split people’s climate change views, not their level of science literacy, according to a new study.

Published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the research found that an increase in science understanding does not necessarily mean greater support for climate science, and that people are still largely influenced by the cultural groups to which they belong.

It goes against a previous belief that public apathy over climate change was caused by society’s lack of understanding of the topic.

“The aim of the study was to test two hypotheses,” said Dan Kahan, Professor at Yale Law School and part of the study team. “The first attributes political controversy over climate change to the public’s limited ability to comprehend science, and the second, to opposing sets of cultural values.

“The findings support the second hypothesis and not the first.”

The study – a survey of 1,540 people in the US – measured science literacy and a subject’s numeracy, their ability to understand quantitative information. It also collected the cultural viewpoints of the subjects.

It found that technically astute people were in fact more “culturally polarised” than others, tending to side with the view of people in their cultural circles about climate change – fitting evidence into already established positions.

“In effect, ordinary members of the public credit or dismiss scientific information on disputed issues based on whether the information strengthens or weakens their ties to others who share their values,” said Kahan. “At least among ordinary members of the public, individuals with higher science comprehension are even better at fitting evidence to their group commitments.”

The researchers say the study supports the case that a more complex understanding of cultural values must be considered when developing science communication strategies.

Read the full report here.

The post Cultural beliefs split climate views not science appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Planet under Pressure Conference has ended with a declaration that science must take a central role in shaping  and influencing policy discussions ahead of Rio+20.

The four-day meeting involved over 3000 scientists, policy makers and civil society members in London, discussing a range of issues related to sustainable development.

The declaration calls for an integrated approach to climate change and global policy making – one where scientists and policy makers interact.

Addressing the conference on the final day, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said he was committed to working with the science community ahead of June’s conference.

This week conference has aimed at setting the scientific agenda ahead of the Rio+ conference to be held this June (© NASA)

Key Recommendations

1) The declaration calls for a more joined up approach between science and policy. It states that science should inform policy to make wise and timely decisions and that innovation should be informed by diverse local needs and conditions.

UNESCO's Irina Bokova called for collaboration across the board inclduing science, policy and business (© Itupictures/Creative Commons)

Irina Bokova, Director General of UNESCO said: “There needs to be new linkages between science and policy, links that are effective and results yielding.

“It is about new partnerships with the private sector, with industry and with the business community. Creating wide platforms which include science, policy, society and business.”

2) The report also calls for interconnectedness between different disciplines of science. The challenges faced by climate change are not only about the natural sciences it argues, and with people’s behaviour key to making the changes necessary, the social sciences will take an increasingly prominent role.

Johan Rockström from the Stockholm Environment Institute said: “What natural science has shown us is that we need to fundamentally shift to the social science perspectives.”

UK Minister for Universities and Science David Willetts added that their should also be research collaboration across countries saying “it is international collaborative research which is more frequently cited and usually of higher quality.”

3) Education will be key – both general education and sustainability education, says the scientists. The report calls for the funding and support for capacity building in science and education globally and particularly in the developing world.

“We need education for all, and that is quality education for all,” said Brito. “It is also citizenship education and teaching people about being part of a larger world. Saying, you are here, you have your community that you have to protect but whatever you do here effects other and what they do effects you.”

What must Rio+20 deliver?

4) A Sustainable Development Council should be set up to integrate social, economic and environmental policy at global level.

“The Sustainable Development Council is a critical one. It would be similar to the Human Rights Council at the heart of the UN process,” said Felix Dodds, Executive Director of Stakeholder Forum for a Sustainable Future.

The Rio+20 conference this June will focus on sustainable development

“The issue around the planetary boundaries is absolutely important but this needs to be underpinned by a social foundation. If you haven’t already read Oxfam’s doughnut policy briefing…it has drawn up the social foundation people should work for.

“Maybe it is not about moving people out of poverty we are looking at but for a world of nine billion middle class people. Isn’t that what we want to aim for?”

5) A commitment to the proposal of the universal Sustainable Development Goals is needed.

Rockström said: “We can now say with some confidence that global sustainability is a pre-requisite for poverty alleviation…Rio Plus must commit to turning the Millennium Development Goals into the Sustainable Development Goals.”

Dodds added: “Support for the Sustainable Development Goals is critical…Science has a huge role to play once the goals are set up in coming up with indicators to ensure they are met.

“We would be looking for the goals to be agreed at Rio and the indicators set by a year after Rio.”

6) The world needs to move past GDP as a indicator of wealth to a method of GDP+, taking into account ecosystems, education, health and global common resources.

Achim Steiner, Head of the UN Environment Programme told the audience: “There is a hard battle in our world about the future of the planet where economic interests are pitted against each other.”

He said this had to change, but not to the extent where rather than economy being put over ecology, ecology was put over economy, but to where the two are considered as interrelated factors.

“There needs to be more ecology within the economy,” he said.

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The new study predicts no tangible change to rainfall until 2040. (Source: Flickr/peasap)

Rainfall in wet season’s around the world will not be significantly affected by climate change until the world passes a threshold of 1.4°C of warming, a new study  predicts.

The research used climate models to assess changes in rainfall at a regional rather than global scale, during rainy seasons.

The model’s performance was too poor during the dry season, when tested against observed measurements of rainfall from the past.

The ability to predict rainfall enables farmers to better plan what and when to plant. Large shifts in the timing and scale of rains can seriously reduce harvests and increase the threat of famine.

In order for changes in the rainfall induced by rising temperatures to be deemed significant, the relationship between the two must be stronger than the natural, short-term changes in rainfall.

The team from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado, found that this “statistical significance” first occurs with 1.4°C of warming compared to the early 20th century.

According to the IPCC, the earth warmed by 0.6°C during the 20th century.

These changes would not be perceptible until 2040 at the earliest, according to the research.

Scientists have been unable to identify links between rising temperatures and rainfall on a small, localised scale.

Many observers have identified less predictability in rainfall, however, representing this with a mathematical formula in a climate model has proved elusive.

VIDEO: Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General, WMO talks to RTCC about the intricacies of climate science.

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The opening of this years WFES was attended by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Wen Jiabao, Premier of People’s Republic of China (Source: WFES)

By Tierney Smith

The door has closed on this year’s World Future Energy Summit (WFES).

The four-day conference saw 26,000 people fill the corridors of the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre.

Attendees included top names from the business, political and academic world aiming advance the energy, energy efficiency and clean technologies of the future.

But what did we learn, and has this summit given the clean-tech world hope for the weeks and months ahead?

Sustainable Energy is Possible and must happen

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon used his keynote address to call on governments and the private sector to make greater commitment towards the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All Initiative.

“Widespread energy poverty still condemns millions to darkness, to ill health, to missed opportunities for education,” he said. “It is not acceptable that three billion people have to rely on wood, waste and charcoal for their energy needs.”

“This is the right time for this initiative…Achieving sustainable energy for all is both feasible and necessary.”

Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Masdar said huge advancements have already been made in the renewables sector in recent years.

“Over the last decade, the renewable energy sector has grown immensely,” he said. “Production and technology advance have led to a sharp decrease in the cost of production, and the market value of the renewable sector has increased from one billion dollars to 211 billion dollars.”

Innovation and Education will be essential

Leading member of the business community met to talk about innovation and education (Source: WFES)

Businesses attending the summit warned that investment in innovation and education will be essential in the future development in renewables in 2012, which they say is set to be a difficult year.

Steve Bolze, Senior VP of General Electric Power and Wind said that those companies who invest significantly in R&D and innovation will thrive.

“Given times, technology investment has to be the long-term differentiator in the sector,” he said.

Tulsi Tanti, Chairman and Managing Director of Suzlon, India said costs of wind power are now on a par with gas and would catch up with coal by 2015. He warned that education was not keeping up with the industry.

“Talent is simply not sufficient to support growth in the industry, so we need to make significant investments to boost that talent pool.”

We are running out of time to act

In his speech Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that while the world has the capabilities to act against climate change, it’s running out of time to do so.

“We have the capacity, we have the opportunity and we have the technologies,” he told delegates. “We certainly have no limits to the potential that exists for the use of renewable energy.”

He also said the Gulf sits on a gold-mine of untapped solar energy.

Could we still be doomed?

Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol was less upbeat about the future. Reiterating the warning of the IEA last year that the world is running out of time to prevent leaving itself on a pathway to a 6°C temperature rise between 2010 and 2035 he said he regretted that the financial crisis had diverted attention from the issue of climate change.

He again slammed fossil fuel subsidies – with global subsidies amounting $409 billion in 2010 – for being an obstacle to the development of renewables.

“To say we want renewables, but then on the other hand give fossil fuels subsidies doesn’t work,” he said. “It’s like you go for a run and then have a big lunch of junk food.”

He also warned that emissions would rise as countries turning their backs on nuclear technologies in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.

Water more important than oil to the Middle East

This year’s summit also saw the launch of International Water Summit which will run alongside next year’s WFES.

Launching the event, Dr Rashid Ahmad Bin Fahd, United Arab Emirates Minister of Environment and Water said the new initiative was a response to the growing importance the UAE government gives to water.

“Sheikh Mohammad [Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi] underlined in a lecture last month that water is much more important than oil for the UAE and its people,” he said.

LEDs and Solar lead the way

The Summit also provides businesses a chance to show off their latest technologies, with many products being launched throughout the four days.

Varous technologies were showcased, including the iMaps application that enables interactive browsing of solar radiation and temperature maps, and the Real Smart Grid which aims at integrating renewable technologies into smart grid systems.

Ssolar panels and LEDs dominated still dominated proceeding, however, as the exhibition’s largest technologies.

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A climate sceptic website has offered $500 to anyone who can ‘debunk’ a UN film on glacier melt in the Himalayas.

The film, ‘Himayalan Meltdown’ is a joint project between the UNDP, Arrowhead Films, and Discovery Channel Asia.

It will be given a special screening at the US State Department today (Monday) ahead of a panel event to discuss the impacts of glacier melt in the Himalayas.

However, the event has received  attention from the website junkscience.com.

It is offering $500 to anyone who will attend the event and ask a question on camera “that aims to debunk the notion that global warming is causing the Himalayan glaciers to disappear’.

Glacier melt in the Himalayas has remained a controversial issue since 2007 when the region found itself at the heart of what was called ‘glaciergate’.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had predicted glaciers would disappear by 2035. In 2010 IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri admitted the report was flawed, but said glaciers were melting at a faster pace than previous studies indicated.

This position was backed up last month by new research published by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development – the body that tracks glacier retreat across the region.

The research release coincided with Mountain Day at the UN Climate Summit in Durban last month and found widespread glacial retreat in all areas of the Himalayas.

The UNDP film examines how the shrinking Himalayan glaciers and rising sea levels are affecting people in China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan.

Speaking at the film’s premiere last June, Helen Clarke, head of the UNDP said: “We will see the impact on the Asian river valleys flowing from the Himalayas – the mudslides from the shifting monsoon rains, the changing mountain terrain, and new areas of drought – all posing considerable risk to human life and to the well-being of more than a billion people.

VIDEO: The 45-minute film was first released in June 2011, at the Asia Society in Washington and New York, and will be shown to the US State Department audience for the first time today.

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Professor Hawking has issued repeated warnings on climate change (Source: Nasa)

As cosmologist Stephen Hawking celebrates his 70th birthday he warns that climate change is one of a greatest threats posed to the future of human-kind and the world.

In an interview ahead of his birthday this Sunday (8 January), Professor Hawking spoke to BBC’s Radio 4 Today Programme and answered questions put to him by listeners.

He said: “It is possible that the human race could become extinct but it is not inevitable. I think it is almost certain that a disaster, such as nuclear war or global warming will befall the earth within a thousand years.”

He also said it was essential humans colonise space to allow them to spread across the universe.

It is a warning Professor Hawking has been sharing for years. Back in 2007 – speaking at the Royal Society in London – he called on scientists to live up to their duty of sharing information about the potential disaster of climate change, referring to it as one of the greatest threats facing human-kind.

“As we stand at the brink of a second nuclear age and a period of unprecedented climate change, scientists have a special responsibility, once again to inform the public and to advise leaders about the perils that humanity faces,” he said. “As scientists we understand the dangers of nuclear weapons and their devastation effects, and we are learning how human activities and technologies are affecting climate systems in ways that may forever change life on Earth.

“As citizens of the world, we have a duty to share that knowledge. We have a duty.”

Another interview highlight for Hawking fans this week, he admitted to New Scientist that, despite being one of the World’s greatest minds, he still spent a lot of time pondering women, who remain a “complete mystery” to him.

Professor Hawking will turn 70 on Sunday. His birthday is being marked this week with an international conference at Cambridge University in his honour.

VIDEO: Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan offer stark warnings when talking about Climate Change and its effects:

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