The dire outlook for Argentina’s renowned higher education system under President Javier Milei, a right-wing populist, was highlighted on April 22 – Earth Day – by Argentine plant ecologist Pedro Jaureguiberry, who was announced as a finalist in the prestigious Frontiers Planet Prize.

​“The current budget for universities in 2024 is insufficient, adding to the fact that in recent years we have only received 20% of the budget we asked for conducting research at our lab,” Jaureguiberry,  an assistant researcher with the Multidisciplinary Institute of Plant Biology at the National University of Córdoba (UNC), told Climate Home.

The 44-year-old scientist, who has spent his entire academic career in Argentina, was shortlisted for the award as one of 23 national champions drawn from science research teams across six continents, in recognition of a study he led on the drivers of human-caused biodiversity loss.

Dr Jaureguiberry conducting fieldwork in central western Argentina. (Photo: Diego Gurvich)

Of the finalists, three international winners will be announced in June in Switzerland, receiving prize money of $1.1 million each for their role in groundbreaking scientific research.

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With annual inflation running close to 300%, this year’s freeze on Argentina’s government budget for universities and scientific research amounts to a spending cut in real terms of around 80%, according to the University of Buenos Aires, which this month declared itself in an “economic emergency”.

On Tuesday, university teaching staff and students, backed by trade unions, will march in Buenos Aires and other cities “in defence of public education”, which they say faces a grave threat from the budget squeeze.

Met office hit by layoffs

Argentine meteorologist Carolina Vera, former vice-chair of a key working group responsible for the latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that in four decades of teaching and research she had never seen “such a level of dismantling through the reduction of research grants and programs with such disdain for knowledge”.

“This is very serious for atmospheric and ocean sciences, key to issues such as climate change, placing a whole new generation of meteorologists and climatologists in danger,” she told Climate Home from Trevelin, in the southern province of Chubut.

There has been widespread condemnation of 86 layoffs affecting administrative and other contractors at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), while Vera added that she is concerned about the situation at the National Meteorological Service, where 73 technicians have been let go. That, she warned, would affect the functionality of early warning and disaster prevention systems.

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Climatic and meteorological challenges are increasing in Argentina, from heavy rains due to the El Niño weather phenomenon – which has caused an ongoing dengue epidemic – to extreme heat and wildfires.

A significant drought is forecast for the southern hemisphere summer of 2024-2025, from November to February, as El Niño gives way to an expected La Niña, with the National Meteorological Service having a key role to play in predicting conditions and disseminating information about them ahead of time.

Vera added that the budget restrictions on CONICET would also limit its research capabilities, particularly relating to climate change. “​We hope that this will be reversed soon,” she added.

Greenlight for extractive industries

Milei has branded climate change a “socialist lie” since 2021 and has also questioned public education for “brainwashing people” with Marxist ideology.

Sergio Federovisky, deputy minister of environment during the previous presidency of Alberto Fernández, said Milei is not only disdainful of scientific views on global warming but also on broader environmental protection. For example, Milei – a former university professor and television pundit – said during his presidential campaign that “a company can pollute a river all it wants”.

“Climate denialism is not a scientific position, but rather an argument used to release all types of extractive actions that could be hindered by an environmental policy on the use of natural resources and the concentration of wealth,” Federovisky told Climate Home from Buenos Aires.

Meeting between Argentine President Javier Milei and Elon Musk in Texas, United States, at the Tesla factory on April 12 2024, forging a partnership through which the government is betting on attracting investment to Argentina. (Photo: Prensa Casa Rosada via / Latin America News Agency / Reuters)

In an economic review published on February 1, which unlocked $4.7 billion to support the new government’s policies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed its support for investment to increase the exploitation of oil and gas reserves and metals mining in Argentina, in order to boost exports and government revenues.

World Bank head Ajay Banga told journalists before last week’s Spring Meetings that the Argentine economy is going through a “whole economic realignment”. The bank “is supportive of the direction of that economy” and looks forward “to working closely with their leadership to help them as they go forward”, he added.

Yet he also noted that the bank’s latest review of economic prospects for the region highlighted challenges, including the impacts of Argentina’s correction, with regional GDP projected to expand by 1.6 percent in 2024, one of the lowest rates in the world and insufficient to drive prosperity.

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The IMF’s support for Milei’s neoliberal economic policies has been strongly criticised by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), which said on Friday that fiscal austerity “is not the answer when people’s lives and their democratic rights are at stake”.

“The IMF is celebrating the budget surplus in Argentina, but it’s indefensible to ignore the human cost of this economic shock therapy,” the ITUC’s General Secretary Luc Triangle said in a statement.

“Pensions have been slashed, thousands of public sector workers fired, public services are on the verge of collapse, unemployment is growing and food poverty spreading.”

Last week the government attempted to head off Tuesday’s protest by announcing a last-minute budget increase for maintenance costs for universities. But that was rejected by a national council of rectors and has not deterred the movement against the austerity measures, with large numbers set to come out onto the streets as planned.

(Reporting by Julián Reingold; editing by Megan Rowling)

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“I won’t ever recover what I invested,” said 67-year-old Kalua Mehmood, a sugarcane farmer in Shahabpur, a village in western Uttar Pradesh, in northern India. Due to scarce rainfall, his sugarcane farm will deliver a poor harvest this year.

The rainfall during the monsoon season, between June and September, was erratic this year, he told Climate Home News. 10 years ago, farmers could count on steady rainfall. “But this year I have already irrigated my crop 10 times with a tube well [diesel pump] and even now the sugarcane has no juice,” Mehmood said, showing its stunted growth and dry yellow leaves.

Mehmood is one of millions of Indian sugarcane farmers who is suffering the onslaught of climate change. More intense and longer droughts and floods, caused by climate change, are destroying sugarcane crops and plunging millions of farmers and their families into debt, while creating dangerous working conditions. In August and September, Climate Home travelled to Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, to hear their stories.

India’s most valuable crop

India is the largest consumer and producer of sugar in the world. Sugarcane is a critical crop for the economy; it accounts for about 10% of the country’s agricultural output and the livelihoods of 50 million farmers and their dependents.

“It is no secret how important sugarcane is to India,” said Devinder Sharma, an independent food and agriculture expert. Further expansion of the sugar industry “needs to be discouraged,” said Sharma. “It is taking too much water.” The crop needs about 2,000 litres of water to produce 1kg of sugar.

“There is just no reason for us to continue pushing for sugarcane when we have options like corn syrup available,” said Sharma. “Rather than looking at adaptation measures, we need to prepare a package to take farmers away from the sugarcane cultivation.”

A tractor ploughs a sugarcane field in Hardoi district, Uttar Pradesh. 

Climate impacts

The industry is feeling the impacts of climate change, Mahesh Palawat, vice president of Skymet Weather, a private weather forecaster in India, told Climate Home.

In 2022, India suffered an extreme heatwave and recorded the hottest March in the last 122 years. Maharashtra recorded temperatures of over 46C and in Banda district in Uttar Pradesh temperatures reached 49C. According to a Lancet report, heat-related deaths of people over 65 years increased by 55% in India from 2000-2004 to 2017-2021.

Following the heatwave, Maharashtra experienced heavy downpours [in July and October], which damaged many sugarcane crops, Palawat said. In Uttar Pradesh, there were drought-like conditions until mid-September and “then we suddenly had heavy rain.”

Maharashtra experienced a sixfold increase in floods between 1970 and 2019, according to a report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a Delhi-based think tank.

“Agriculture requires stable weather… these episodes of extreme weather events are harmful,” said Palawat. “What this can result in is that we may have a bumper crop in one region in a particular year but that can quickly change in the next year due to unpredictable weather.”

Intense heat or extreme cold deteriorates the quality of the sugarcane juice and the overall quality of the final sugar product, according to a government report. Temperatures exceeding 35C-40C stunt the growth of the sugarcane crop and reduce the overall yield, according to a 2016 study.

Despite these climate challenges, sugarcane is still considered a better bet than other crops. According to a government report, the net return on cultivating sugarcane is 200–250% higher than for cotton or wheat.

Not enough water

Between May and September 2022, very little rain fell on Uttar Pradesh.

When Climate Home visited Shahabpur in Uttar Pradesh in September, it had just rained for the first time in 40 days. Farm owner Firasut Ali said the area only saw three proper rain spells during the entire monsoon season.

250km away in Uttar Pradesh’s Hardoi district, Ammar Zaidi, a former banker, said that when he started farming in 2014, he was able to secure 40,000-42,500kg of crop per acre. But in the last two years, this has shrunk to about 30,000-36,000kg per acre due to heatwaves. “We are in the thick of the monsoon season but if you touch the ground all you can feel is dust.”

Sitting in his sugarcane field, Zaidi showed Climate Home his diseased sugarcane crop. According to Bharat Rachkar, from the Central Sugarcane Research Station in Maharashtra, when temperatures exceed 40C, “we see the problem of bugs and parasites in the stem”.  When temperatures drop below 25C, germination is also affected.

“I have calculated all my inputs and my overall costs. At the end of the day, I am not getting the return [on investment] I need to survive in this profession,” said Zaidi. “If I started making a balance sheet, I would be in the negative every year.”

“For every investment of 100,000 rupees ($1,230), a farmer is only able to secure 90,000 rupees ($1,100),” he said.

“Why am I still doing this? It is probably because like many others in my area my family has been connected to this land and farming for ages. I can’t just leave.”

Labourers prepare sugarcane fields in Sangli district, Maharashtra

Broken dreams

Diljinder Singh, who lives in the village Sheetlapur in Uttar Pradesh, told Climate Home News that he has many broken dreams. He used to work for Jet Airways and live in Gurugram, the swanky neighbouring city of Delhi.

In 2012, he left his job and returned to his village, where his family owns land, to run a sugarcane farm. His parents warned against it. Singh believed that with better sowing and irrigation methods, he could farm in a more productive way. But his harvests languished.

“The whole pattern is disturbed,” Singh said. “About 5-7 years ago, we used to get good rainfall and we didn’t require irrigation but today people are dependent on diesel-run generators to irrigate their fields.”

Too much water

Heat isn’t the only problem. In late September, heavy downpours hit Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, damaging 2.3 million hectares (23,000 sq km) of crops, including sugarcane. When heavy rains like this hits, it leads to waterlogged soil which impacts the germination process and stunts the root development, said Rachkar.

“I was born in 1989 and until 2006 I had never seen floods in my region. Since then I have seen [floods] three times,” said Ankush Churmule, a farmer whose family has been involved in sugarcane farming for 50 years.

“Areas of western Maharashtra, where the sugarcane is grown near the river, are facing a lot of impact due to successive floods. In those areas, the farmers are moving to bamboo,” said Rahul Ramesh Patil, president of the Weather Literacy Forum, a group that raises awareness about changing weather patterns.

A farmer removes weeds from floodwater in Kolhapur district, Maharashtra, India

The poor harvests caused by excess flooding also impact people with associated livelihoods such as rearing bulls or transporting goods. Kiran Shamrao, who rears bulls for sugarcane farming in Maharashtra, told Climate Home that flooding had severely reduced his profits.

“Our life runs on the bulls. Before, there was little rain, so we had some work for the bulls. But now, because of so much rain, the bulls don’t have work anymore, and we are at a loss,” he said.

Price guaranteed, timing not

If these regions are so prone to droughts and floods, then why do farmers continue to grow sugarcane? The simple answer is that sugarcane fetches them an assured price as it is regulated by the government, unlike other crops such as cotton and soy beans.

“From production to export, every part of the sugar industry is regulated in India. Farmers have an assured buyer and price and they know every last cane will be purchased,” said Sonjoy Mohanty, director of the Indian Sugar Mills Association.

That does not mean payment is swift. Sharma told Climate Home that payments are “often delayed for a year and sometimes even more, bringing hardship to farmers”.

Because of delayed payments, farmers are struggling to make ends meet and are falling into debt, Zaidi said. “Except for sowing, farmers have nothing in their control– neither production nor the final price.”

Representatives for sugarcane farmers told Niti Aayog, the government think tank, that climate threats, such as droughts and floods, “restrict their ability to switch to alternate crops”.

“These weather conditions lead to poor forecasting and the risk of crop failure is higher with other crops [such as cotton, wheat and soybean],” they said.

The Indian government has established a National Agriculture Disaster Management Plan to understand the impact of climate change on farming and focus on disaster risk reduction and possible adaptation measures for the sector.

But farmers told Climate Home they need more support.

No going back

In such a catch-22 situation, what is the solution?

“With climate change being a reality, the crop patterns need to be adjusted otherwise it will heavily impact the yield,” said 50-year-old Suresh Kabade, who has worked as a sugarcane farmer for the past 30 years. “We need to change with climate change.”

A 2019 study by a group of Indian scientists recommended the development of efficient irrigation practices, the adoption of a heat-tolerant cane variety and reducing the use of fossil fuel fertilisers in the near future to assist the sugar industry and help it adapt to the changing climate in northern India.

Other measures could include farmers adopting solar-powered pumps, getting crop insurance, and being taught to use weather forecasting tools, which are readily available but not widely used due to a lack of training.

Most of the farmers Climate Home spoke to were pessimistic about what lies ahead. Singh said there are times when he regrets leaving his corporate job but now there is no option but to continue. “We can’t go back.”

Asked if he will encourage his daughter to follow in his footsteps, Singh was direct. “My nine-year-old daughter enjoys farming and helps me in the fields. Considering my achievements, I would encourage her to take up farming… but if I consider present-day policies, I would never ask her to go into agriculture.”

Reporting by Mayank Aggarwal and Arvind Shukla. Photography by Meenal Upreti. Data visualisation by Gurman Bhatia. The Pulitzer Center supported this project with a reporting grant as part of its Your Work/Environment initiative.

The post India’s sugarcane farmers struggle to cope with droughts and floods appeared first on Climate Home News.

Climate Home News reported on major events – including world-changing elections, clashes between major economies and climate negotiations – while digging deeper into mysteries and underreported issues.

Here are five of our must-read stories from 2022, on the international dimensions of the climate crisis and the complications of addressing it. Keep up to date with our news, investigations and analysis by subscribing to our weekly newsletter. 

1. Crypto bubble: The hype behind a $70,000 carbon credit

Early in the year, the sale of a single carbon credit for an eyewatering $70,000 at auction caught Chloé Farand’s eye. At the time, millions of credits from the same project were selling on the market for less than $20 each.

Who would pay such a premium? The answer lay in a cryptocurrency venture called Save Planet Earth and a community of investors convinced it was the next big thing.

Unfortunately, their faith was unfounded. SPE claimed it had contracts to plant 1.1 billion trees in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, but was not able to back this up – and experts on the ground said it was not credible.

2. Race for lithium pollutes water in Argentinian villages 

The transition towards cleaner energies comes at a price for communities in Argentina, where a key mineral used in batteries is extracted. There, lithium mining companies have sparked fears of water shortages among locals. 

Natalie Alcoba, traveled to Fiambalá, a small Argentine mountain village which is rich in metals that will fuel the renewable energy revolution. 

But the methods for extracting lithium from the ground consume a lot of water and can pollute freshwater deposits.

3. Extreme heatwaves dried up water sources across the world 

Extreme weather kept breaking all records in 2022. Last summer saw extreme heatwaves all over the northern hemisphere and their impacts to water sources were visible from space.  

An analysis of satellite imagery by Sebastián Rodríguez, in partnership with the monitoring platform Planet, shows how freshwater ecosystems degraded across the world.

Rivers and lakes were at the frontline of this summer’s extreme weather. If we use these ecosystems as measure of our readiness to climate change, experts said we’re not prepared. 

4. Fossil fuel fights at Cop27: how the industry escaped censure

Fossil fuels were one of the strongest forces at play in this year’s UN climate negotiations, as industry lobbyists outnumbered almost every national delegation. In late-night closed meetings, the industry’s efforts paid off, as fossil fuels escaped censure at Cop27. 

Joe Lo and Chloé Farand reconstructed the industry’s role in this years climate negotiations, and told the behind the scenes story of how oil and gas producers managed to delay decisive climate action at the UN summit. 

One diplomat called the process “negotiation by exhaustion” as they were overwhelmed with new texts in the early hours of the morning. 

5. The ‘junk’ carbon offsets revived by the Glasgow Pact 

A militarized hydroelectric dam in Myanmar is one example of the hundreds of projects that could be used to greenwash national and corporate emissions reports thanks to a decision taken at last year’s Cop26. 

Through an exclusive data analysis, Chloé Farand and freelance data reporters Maribel Ángel-Moreno, Léopold Salzenstein and Jelena Malkowski indentified over 800 problematic projects whose past emissions reductions can now be bought. 

Some projects showed a patchy human rights record, while others evidenced an outright failure to deliver promised climate benefits. 

The post Climate Home’s five must-read climate change stories from 2022 appeared first on Climate Home News.

The government provided emergency relief to help people cope in the aftermath of the floods, but migrants told Climate Home News they are concerned about more flooding and extreme weather in the future in a country that is ill-equipped to deal with heavy rainfall.

Heavy rains began on 27 July, resulting in flash floods across the UAE. Seven people died in the floods, all of them Asian migrants. Five of the seven who died were Pakistani citizens, according to Pakistan’s embassy in the UAE. Neither the UAE or Pakistan have shared more details about the victims.

Sharjah, the UAE’s third most populous city, and the emirate of Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman, were among the worst hit.

“At first we were enjoying the rain but then it got dangerous quickly,” said Amir Bukhari, a migrant from Pakistan who works in sales and lives in Sharjah. “Roads started collecting water. I live on the ground floor and the water started coming inside and that was scary.”

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“I didn’t need to evacuate and there was not too much damage,” Bukhari told Climate Home.  “I cannot afford to buy new furniture or move somewhere.”

Two-thirds of UAE’s residents do not have home insurance. Almost 90% of the UAE’s population is made up of migrants, who often have difficult living and working conditions.

“I am worried about those who are very vulnerable, the migrant workers and undocumented migrants,” said Natasha Abaza, an urban designer and planner of Arab origins, who is now based in the UK and works at the architecture firm Prior + Partners.

“Unfortunately, I don’t think they are any resilience plans to prepare urban cities in the Gulf for flooding. They have money so they can help with the damages but I think that is the whole plan right now,” she said. “There is no resilience because of, well, racism.”

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UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) told local press that climate change is responsible for the increased frequency of heavy rains, which can cause flooding – especially in the mountainous areas of the northern Emirates.

Such extreme weather events “may be even more impactful in a warming world” in the southeastern Arabian peninsula, according to a study by Khalifa University of Science and Technology in Abu Dhabi, in partnership with the UAE’s NCM. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, meaning extreme events last longer, the study notes.

Faizal E, who would not give his full name as he fears “offending the government”, was forced to leave his home in Fujairah, with his wife and two children, along with hundreds of other families, when floods hit the region in July. The NCM issued a code red alert, signifying that “hazardous weather events of exceptional severity are forecast.”

“We stayed in a government facility for a few days but now I am back home,” he told Climate Home. “The government was very helpful and worked hard to rescue us.”

“Red Crescent and other charities have been providing free hot meals to [everyone], no questions asked,” he said. Over 500 volunteers are working in coordination with organisations such as the Emirates Red Crescent. “There was a lot of damage…the UAE is not a country that sees a lot of rain.”

Faizal praised the authorities for “quick and successful restoration efforts” but is concerned about similar outcomes if heavy rains occur again.

“I think heavy rains show the country’s strongest and weakest points,” he says. “They are so capable of offering help and saving people but there are no plans to prepare for this type of weather, which is rare but happening more and more now.”

Faizal is no stranger to heavy rains because he is a migrant from Kerala, India, which experiences monsoon rains for several months each summer.

“I think my town in Kerala sees this much rain usually during the summer but that is just how the weather is there,” he said. “The UAE does not see this type of rain. It is built better in many ways but it is not built to handle such weather.”

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Many of the large cities in Fujairah are located in valleys and have drainage systems that are not able to cope with heavy rainfall or dams to protect people from flash floods.

Large and expensive development projects are often built on flood-prone areas because the “likelihood [of severe floods] is very unlikely,” said Abaza.

“They know it, of course. They have access to this data, [but] they don’t care,” she said. “I am not talking about the UAE specifically, [but] about the region in general.”

The wealthiest cities of UAE boast record-breaking infrastructure, including some of the tallest buildings in the world. This might be part of the problem.

“Everything that has been built there has been built against nature. And nature will fight back,” said Abaza. “Over-engineering to fight these floods is never the solution.”

Instead, more drainage, ending developments in flood-prone areas and landscape restoration should be prioritised, she said.

A report from Khalifa University recommends the following infrastructure investments: “Drains need to be up to the job, or the roads will flood. Dams need to protect from flash flooding, especially in dry river bed wadi [valley] areas. Airport runways need to slope, so the rain runs off into the drains (which must work).”

The UAE was not the only country in the Arab Gulf to experience severe flooding. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia also witnessed heavy rainfall last month, something the arid region has not seen during the summer in over 30 years.

The UAE government did not respond to Climate Home’s request for comment.

The post Deadly flash floods in UAE highlight need for resilience investment appeared first on Climate Home News.

Ana made landfall in Madagascar on 24 January, before hitting Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia. The storm caused extreme flooding, which destroyed infrastructure, homes, hospitals and forced up to 800,000 households to evacuate, said Chikondi Chabvuta, Care International’s Southern Africa advocacy lead, who is based in Malawi. 

“We are yet to establish the full extent of the damage, but it is definitely in the billions [of dollars],” Chabvuta told Climate Home News. 

In Malawi, the intensity of the storm was only forecast two days before it hit, giving communities in its path little warning to evacuate. 

“We didn’t have enough time to go down to the communities to share the [news] with everyone,” said Chabvuta, adding that people in disconnected regions, without access to a radio or Whatsapp, were left in the dark.

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Ana was spotted developing as early as 15 January, but at that time the intensity and track of the storm were uncertain, Liz Stephens, associate professor in climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading, told Climate Home News.

“It is more difficult to forecast the intensity of tropical cyclones than their track,” she said. “On top of that there are aspects to the impact that are incredibly difficult to predict, like which bridges or dams might fail.”

A study published in 2020 suggested that 2C of global warming would lead to tropical cyclones in the region becoming less frequent but more intense and wet – conditions associated with worse damage.

Chabvuta said humanitarian aid alone would not be sufficient to help communities in Malawi rebuild their lives and livelihoods. “Crops have been washed away or are waterlogged,” she said. “Food insecurity in the next few months is a given.”

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The country is still reeling from Cyclone Idai in 2019, one of the worst tropical cyclones on record to hit Africa, which affected almost a million people in Malawi. “Storm Ana is bringing up the trauma from Cyclone Idai,” Chabvuta said. “When the cyclone hit Malawi, it opened up those memories from 2019.”

To build communities’ resilience and ensure they are better prepared for future storms, insurance mechanisms should be introduced, which enable quick payouts when a disaster hits, according to Chabvuta.

For example, the African Risk Capacity scheme paid out to the government of Madagascar in 2020 to help farmers cope with anticipated losses of crops and livestock to drought. 

Preparing people for storms by running evacuation drills also helps reduce losses, Chabvuta said, noting that the two districts in Malawi with such a scheme in place experienced no fatalities.

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Anticipatory action, before a hazard strikes, is critical to minimise losses and damages, said Jurg Wilbrink, forecast-based action project manager for the Red Cross’ southern Africa delegation.  

In Mozambique, the Red Cross used early warning systems to protect people before storm Ana hit. “We had finance in place, ready to be disbursed to affected communities and evacuated the most vulnerable before the disaster hit,” he told Climate Home News. “Anticipatory action avoids a lot of human suffering and it is cost effective.”

The Red Cross distributed chlorine tablets to purify drinking water and prevent cholera outbreaks, diverted water from vulnerable locations, and helped people protect important documents such as passports, Wilbrink said.

The region is bracing for more storms. “Madagascar is currently preparing for a cyclone apparently more dangerous than Ana, Betsirai, which may displace more than 140,000 people,” said Timothy Irwin from Unicef Madagascar. 

“It is likely to reach Mozambique within a week,” said Wilbrink. “We are on high alert for the next event.” 

The post Storm Ana’s devastation in southern Africa highlights need for early warnings appeared first on Climate Home News.

It will be the first comprehensive review of the scientific literature since 2013, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) started its last round of assessment reports, AR5.

Attribution science, which looks at how much human activities lead to climate change, is likely to feature heavily in the report. Here we give an overview of the scientific developments of the past eight years.

AR5 concluded that human influence on the climate system is “clear.” Today scientists say climate change is, without doubt, caused by us. A 2021 study concluded that humans have caused all of the warming observed since the preindustrial period.

Since the last IPCC report, there has been an explosion of attribution studies finding that specific heatwaves, droughts, tropical cyclones and other extreme events were more likely or intense because of climate change. Recent studies have shown that extreme events such as the Siberian heat wave in 2020 would never have happened without humans pumping greenhouse gases into the air.

Since AR5, attribution science has become more “impact-oriented”, Sjoukje Philip, a climate scientist from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, told Climate Home News.

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That means more studies focusing on the societal impacts of extreme weather events, such as the 2016 study which found that 506 of the 753 fatalities during the Paris heatwave in 2003 were a result of climate change. 

“We wanted to see how much human-induced climate change contributed to mortality,” Dann Mitchell, one of the study’s authors and professor of climate change at Bristol University, told Climate Home News. “Since the last IPCC report models have become more advanced and we have better ways of collecting climate and health data,” he said. 

The increase in attribution studies is due to more precise climate models and peer-reviewed methods which allow scientists to rapidly and accurately analyse extreme events, according to Philip. This also helps with communication. “If you can do the attribution one week after the event, it’s still news,” she said.

Scientists are now able to carry out attribution studies within a few days of an event occurring. In some cases they can do the analysis while the event is still going on. Scientists from the WWA group published a study in 2018 showing that climate change made Europe’s heatwave twice as likely, while it was ongoing.

Half of all attribution studies focus on heatwaves, according to Mitchell. Heatwaves are relatively easy to attribute because they are “very certain and the first response to climate change” and cover a large area, which makes it easier for climate models to pick up, said Mitchell. Most of the rest look at extremes of rainfall leading to drought or floods.

Only a handful have looked at hurricanes, which are hard to model due to their complexity and limited historical data. They reached relatively weak conclusions about the scale of human influence.

That could change as new high-resolution models are being developed, said Sarah Teuling-Kew, a climate scientist at WWA. “Methods for large-scale precipitation and temperature extremes are more robust – they have been put through the tests,” she said.

The majority of attribution studies focus on events in Europe and North America. This is because these regions have the most reliable climate data available, according to Philip. “I don’t think we’ve ever done a heatwave attribution study over Africa because we never hear about it,” she said, adding that WWA scientists are collaborating with African scientists and sharing knowledge to improve modelling of the continent.

The post Timeline: How the science linking climate change to extreme weather took off appeared first on Climate Home News.

Guterres was joined at the UN general assembly in New York by a chorus of international ministers at a high-level meeting on Hurricane Irma, hastily called last week in response to the devastating storm that levelled several Caribbean islands in the last fortnight.

Guterres said cutting carbon emissions “must clearly be part of our response” to the disaster. “The rise in the surface temperature of the ocean has had an impact on weather patterns and we must do everything possible to bring it down.”

“This year’s hurricane season is already the most violent on record and it will continue until November,” Guterres said. “The season fits a pattern. Changes to our climate are making extreme weather events more severe and frequent, pushing communities in to a vicious cycle of shock and recovery. Extreme weather linked to climate change has an impact all over the world, including floods in southern Asia and landslides and drought in Africa.”

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Last month, more than 1,200 people died as monsoon floods hit south Asia, whereas in the US Hurricanes Harvey and Irma killed just over 100.

Guterres said the “huge discrepancy” between lives lost in storms of “similar size” highlighted the need to help poor countries better prepare for the effects of extreme weather. The UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals could “never be achieved” in countries that were constantly rebuilding, he added.

The meeting, which a briefing note said would offer nations “an opportunity to highlight the role of climate change in extreme weather events”, was attended by ministers from affected countries as well as those wanted to offer support for reconstruction.

“We need to get used to the multiplication of these tragedies now,” said French minister for ecology Nicolas Hulot.

The French dominions of Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy were severely damaged by Irma. Hulot said France intended to make the islands “examples of resilience” as they rebuilt.

“In a very brutal fashion, nature shows us the limits of the human condition and compels us to shoulder the consequences of our nonchalant attitude. If we do nothing in order to combat climate change then climate change will become a serial killer in the 21st century,” he said.

On Tuesday, France’s prime minister is expected to address the general assembly of the UN to call for a global environment pact.

Several Caribbean ministers were in attendance, as the region faced a further devastating storm – Maria – which devastated Dominica late on Monday.

Governor general of Antigua and Barbuda Rodney Williams said his prime minister Gaston Browne had been unable to travel to the UN assembly in order to prepare for the arrival of Maria. Barbuda was hit exceptionally hard by Irma. Williams said the nation had been left “dazed” by the impact of the storm and Barbuda had been left uninhabited for the first time in more than three hundred years.

Report: Irma forces Caribbean delegates to abandon UN climate science meeting

“There are lives being destroyed,” said Dominican Republic president Danilo Medina said: “Irma is not a phenomenon in isolation, but an extreme symptom of a greater problem… Climate change and its consequences should not be the subject of speculation or debate. It’s a truth which hits us and which causes great uncertainty.”

A minister from the United Arab Emirates also spoke at the meeting, announcing two renewable energy construction projects in the Caribbean.

“Hurricane Irma is also a critical reminder that the frequency of weather-related disaster is increasing,” said assistant minister of international development affairs Sultan Mohammed Al Shamsi. “We must not only commit to uphold the Paris Agreement, but also to allocate more funding to prevention and adaptation.”

US deputy representative to the UN Michele Sison addressed the meeting, offering solidarity to other affected countries, but made no mention of climate change. Despite the US suffering heavy hurricane damage, when asked about climate change links President Donald Trump downplayed the scale of the storms.

The post UN secretary general links hurricane devastation to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

But of greatest interest to us, as people who have been fascinated by climate change communication, was that for the first time we heard climate scientists in the media making a confident (albeit hedged) connection between an extreme weather event and climate change.

Recent breakthroughs in modelling have enabled scientists to attribute the role of climate change in an extreme weather event quickly and accurately. But this raises an important question: are people in Florida, Texas, the wider US and the Caribbean going to make that connection, or accept it when made by others? In short, will storms like Harvey and Irma increase public concern about climate change and generate increased demands for collective action?

Those who are already actively engaged – including activists and climate scientists – tend to assume that extreme weather events lead to increased public concern. After all, this is the point where the rubber hits the road, where the models and the graphs become tangible and real. Of course people can deny something which is theoretical and placed in the future, but how, it is often argued, can people deny the evidence in front of their own eyes?

Indeed there is evidence from the UK that people who have experienced flooding are not only more concerned about climate change, but also more likely to report that they have become more concerned about climate change. However this study didn’t look at the interplay with political ideology, and the wider sciences of cognitive and social psychology suggest that the relationship between experience and belief is never straightforward and is determined by a complex interplay of innate biases, cultural interpretation and social identity.

When the same authors looked at whether people interpreted cold weather as evidence for or against climate change they found political ideology was the main determining factor. What is becoming increasingly evident is that if people are strongly invested in an attitude, they will actively defend their position. Bizarrely, when confronted with counter evidence, people may even become reinforced in their views.

A research paper by Robert Brulle at Drexel University, published earlier this year, could find no conclusive evidence that extreme weather events shifted opinion. It concludes that “political ideology exercises a dominant influence on the perception of climate change and far eclipses the influence of weather events”. In other words, your views on climate change are predetermined by your political identity which, across the English-speaking world, is extremely polarised on this issue.

If you are a left-leaning, liberal environmentalist then extreme weather events will be a confirmation of your existing views. But how do people who do not accept climate change respond to such events?

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The primary response appears to be to remove the question altogether, by suppressing all conversation about climate change. Earlier this week a perplexed Guardian reporter found that residents in Florida had no interest in making any connection with climate change. He quoted a local real estate lawyer surveying the damage saying, “I don’t think climate change is such a big deal.”

In 2013, one of us (George Marshall), conducted extensive interviews in the US in areas affected by extreme weather events for his book – entitled Don’t Even Think About It: Why our Brains are Wired to Ignore Climate Change. He visited Bastrop, which had suffered the most extreme and expensive wildfires in Texan history and communities on the New Jersey seashore which had recently been devastated by Hurricane Sandy.

In neither location could he find anyone who could recall having a conversation about the connection between climate change and the extreme weather events. In Democrat New Jersey, people were more inclined to accept the scientific reality of climate change and the possibility that it might be associated with the hurricane. However, the dominant narrative concerned the strength of the community, the mutual support at a time of hardship, and the positive story of renewal and reconstruction. People had no desire to indulge in any narrative that might be socially divisive or to consider a worsening climate, and hoped that it really was a once in 100 years event.

In our work around flooding in the UK, it appears that on average it is only after experiencing a third flooding incident that people are prepared to take action. This is in many ways completely understandable: if your life has been turned upside down physically and emotionally, you want everything to return to ‘normal’ rather than accept that this is likely to happen to you and your family again. Clearly however, waiting for everyone to experience three extreme weather events before they catch on isn’t an option.

This does not mean climate communications should avoid talking about extreme weather events. Clearly these events provide an unusual opportunity to discuss the future risks and impacts of climate change. The question is, how can we do it effectively and navigate this difficult and emotionally charged space? If we talk too soon after an event, we can be accused of exploiting people suffering to bolster our issue (an accusation that recurs repeatedly in the US when people try to discuss gun control after a mass shooting). And if we talk too late, people have already moved on and recovered.

Research finds that some people even come to believe that they are now invulnerable to future impacts, particularly when such incidents are framed as once in a 100 or 200 years event, as the UK’s Environment Agency did until recently.

Report: Irma forces Caribbean delegates to abandon UN climate science meeting

What is needed is a careful and considered approach to discussing the connection between events such as Hurricane Irma and climate change. Following the 2013/14 floods in the UK, Climate Outreach ran workshops in communities who’d experienced flooding to explore these issues. We followed this with a project led by the Understanding Risk group at Cardiff University, bringing together a diverse cross-section of experts.

Out of this came a set of nine principles of best-practice public engagement for communicating flood risk in a changing climate. A key lesson from this work is that, in order to create a shift in attitudes and a stronger call for action on climate change, appropriate conversations have to begin before the weather events, seeding the discussion that can then occur between peers in relation to the unfolding impacts.

Increasingly people are joining the dots between extreme weather events and climate change but the critical need remains to enable discussions that actively involve all groups, especially those outside the liberal green networks. Doing so isn’t straightforward – it requires consideration, time and resources, underpinned by a keen awareness that political polarisation can swamp even the evidence before our very own eyes.

George Marshall is co-founder and director of projects and Jamie Clarke is executive director at Climate Outreach.

The post Now really isn’t the best time to talk about climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

Indeed, the economic costs – which will include everything from thousands of ruined and uninsured homes to higher national gasoline prices to lost business activity in the country’s fourth-largest city – will take months to calculate, and years to overcome, said Kevin Simmons, an economist at Austin College focused on storm impacts.

“In the Houston metro area alone, there is more than $325 billion in residential value at risk,” Simmons said in an interview. “Most damage to residential property will be flooding and if people don’t have flood insurance they are on their own.” (Most don’t, in part because the floodwaters reached so far beyond established danger zones.)

Add in damaged cars, commercial property, lost business and the damage outside of Houston, “The bottom line will likely exceed Katrina,” he said. Other economists surveyed by The New York Times earlier this week projected somewhat lower losses, but it is still early days.

While some aspects of Houston’s agony are likely anomalous, a similar set of risk factors threatens hundreds of communities from coast to coast and in between. The natural hazards and geography vary, but the dominant dynamic leading to unnatural disasters is the same everywhere: growth and development continue to put people and property at risk, from overdeveloped inland floodplains to fire-prone western woodlands to crowding coastlines to homes and businesses built in the United States’s Tornado Alley.

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Some of the meteorological threats, like extreme downpours and heat waves, are sure to worsen in a human-heated climate, with warming from elevated levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases seen by many climate scientists as already contributing to the severity of rains like those over Texas in recent days and Louisiana last year.

But some scientists worry that squabbles over the evolving field of “attribution” science, parsing what portion of some storm is due to global warming, distract attention from the utter clarity around the role of on-the-ground decisions, or indecision, in worsening damage when bad weather strikes.

“What gets lost in climate change debates is that society is changing, too,” said Stephen M. Strader, an assistant professor of geography and environment at Villanova University. Strader has done a series of analyses and visualisations with Walker S. Ashley, a geographer and atmospheric scientist at Northern Illinois University, showing vividly how development, over time, creates an “expanding bull’s-eye effect” that exacerbates losses even if a storm’s parameters are not changed.

They have done such assessments for floods, fires, and tornadoes, and each holds the same lesson: hazards are natural, but disasters are unnatural.

One of their studies, published in 2015, examined how population growth and development amplify exposure to tornadoes, using as their template the devastating tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma, in 2013. That tornado was the third deadly twister to strike that unlucky community since 1999.

It took that third blow to prompt the municipality in 2014 to bolster its building codes, said Simmons, the Austin College professor, who has extensively studied tornado damage. With Paul Kovacs of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Simmons studied whether the tougher code hurt Moore’s competitiveness with the neighbouring community of Norman, Oklahoma. Their paper found that the slight added costs and complexities of having the tougher standard “had no effect on either home sales or price per square foot for new homes in Moore.”

Hurricane Harvey: lawyers warn of climate lawsuits over damages

Norman still has no such building code, even though it is home to the federal National Severe Storms Laboratory — the leading centre for tornado research.

Tornadoes, to be sure, remain an enigma. One 2016 study found signs of a relationship between clusters of tornadoes in violent outbreaks and climate change. But broader reviews have shown no clear relationship to global warming, with the frequency of the destructive categories of twisters in the U.S. unchanged or slightly declining since the 1950s, according to federal climate scientists.

In regions prone to wildfire, the same dynamics and tensions are in play. A comprehensive 2015 federal report found that, as of 2010, the vulnerable “wildland-urban interface” of the lower 48 states includes about 44 million houses — one in every three houses in the country, with the highest concentrations of houses in California, Texas and Florida.

The growth rate in these combustible zones is similar to that in Gulf Coast floodplains, even as climate change, invasive species and other factors boost fire risk. As the land management group Headwaters Economics has shown in detailed maps, there is a vast amount of developable land that, without new policies, will greatly expand a disaster’s bull’s-eye.

But only 18 communities – out of thousands in fire-prone regions – have signed up with a planning assistance program for living with wildfire developed in 2015 by the group with several partners.

As for the dangers posed by rare, but inevitable, floods of the sort swamping Texas, they have been more discounted than other storm threats like wind, said J. Marshall Shepherd, director of the atmospheric sciences programme at the University of Georgia and a past president of the American Meteorological Society. This is the case even though flooding causes far more deaths and damage, Shepherd said.

The discounting of flood risk in favor of development continues even after disasters, said Craig E. Colten, the Carl O. Sauer Professor of Geography at Louisiana State University. People have a discouragingly predictable tendency to forget a disaster’s lessons – sometimes within months of a cleanup.

Colten has been studying the impact of heavy rain events across states abutting the Gulf of Mexico, but particularly the August 2016 deluge that damaged or wrecked some 60,000 homes in or around Baton Rouge and killed 13 people.

He said that Houston’s flood is a chart-busting anomaly that will be studied for many years, but noted that rains approaching that scope – 48 inches accumulating over a few days – were within the realm of what is possible almost anywhere along the central Gulf Coast. More such disasters are inevitable.

For any big urban areas in regions prone to such rains, whether Houston with 4 million people or Baton Rouge with 300,000, he said: “If you have one of these exceptional rainfalls that become a new record, you really have to take that into account in development plans.”

Analysis: Link between Hurricane Harvey and climate change is unclear

In practice, even around Baton Rouge, which was so devastated just a year ago, that’s not the case, he said.

“Across the Gulf Coast in areas of low topography, we have completely built beyond what’s reasonable in terms of rain events of this scale,” Colten said. “We’re still seeing municipalities resisting safe planning in the interest of economic development and a more robust tax base.”

While several organisations around Baton Rouge are pursuing a “Rebuilding with Resilience” initiative, some local governments appear to be headed in the opposite direction, Colten said.

“The remarkable thing here since the floods,” he said, “is that three parishes in the Baton Rouge area hit hardest have all backed off” on policies related to flood resilience. “Baton Rouge has already approved a couple of subdivisions in the footprint of flood from last year,” he said, adding that city officials also rejected making the most recent, and most severe, flooding event the threshold from which minimum elevations for various classes of buildings are calculated.

Frank Duke, the Baton Rouge planning director, disputed whether explosive suburban growth everywhere amplified the flood damage, according to an article on Nola.com last fall. In that article, one local mayor said if everyone had to build new homes and businesses to new standards of elevation the community would become a ghost town.

Colten said he could sympathise, to a point.

“The compulsion was to rebuild on site,” he said. “They want to rebuild their schools at the size they were. They didn’t want people to leave. But safety needs to at least be on a par with economic development.”

At the national scale, the tensions over balancing development, safety and environmental quality were on display earlier this month when President Donald Trump, in the name of accelerating infrastructure improvements, revoked a 2015 executive order from President Barack Obama establishing reviews of flood risks before the approval of federal funding for housing or other construction projects.

The move was widely criticised as threatening the very infrastructure the president claimed to be trying to revive, including by the R Street Institute, an organisation pursuing Reagan-era approaches to cutting disaster risk and preserving the environment.

The most vocal group cheering Trump’s decision was the National Association of Home Builders, which had fought the Obama plan.

R.J. Lehmann, a senior fellow at R Street Institute, noted that when Harvey came ashore northeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, on Aug. 25, as a Category 4 hurricane, it first struck barrier islands that are part of a 273m-acre zone established under the Coastal Barrier Resources Act, signed by President Ronald Reagan in 1982. That law, later expanded in 1990, forbade federal subsidies for new development in relatively undeveloped coastal regions along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and Great Lakes, including for roads, housing and discounted flood insurance. He said private interests could still build there but at their own risk. His organisation has estimated the law has saved taxpayers more than $1bn and is trying to expand it, as well as reform state laws in similar ways.

“Where this storm made landfall, that area was protected and didn’t have federal subsidies,” he said. “That is a conservative approach to conservation.”

The challenges vary from region to region, with New York City facing risks from both coastal and rainfall-driven flooding, and having a much older and denser layout, said Daniel A. Zarrilli, who is the city’s chief resilience officer and, no surprise, has been closely tracking Houston’s plight.

New York City has been pursuing targeted purchases and acquisitions in some of the city’s most flood-prone spots, building on similar buyouts undertaken by the state. The purchases include the entire community of Oakwood Beach, a Staten Island coastal neighborhood submerged by Hurricane Sandy’s surge in October, 2012.

For the city, impacts go beyond flooding. Other risks could be compounded by climate change, with projections of more heavy downpours in a warming climate increasing the odds of the city’s vital Catskills reservoirs being muddied more frequently – a condition that could require the construction of billions of dollars in filtration equipment that the city had avoided through environmental cleanups around the watersheds feeding into the system.

Zarrilli was on an advisory committee set up by the United States Global Change Research Program under Obama to improve the usefulness of federal climate change risks assessments as communities around the country confront emerging perils. The committee was disbanded on August 18 by the Trump administration.

“The point was to help convert climate science into more actionable sustained policy support,” he said. “This wildly changing climate is making mincemeat of what we thought of as normal.”

This article was first published on ProPublica.

The post Developing disasters: How cities are making hurricanes more destructive appeared first on Climate Home News.

It will still snow sometimes in a warming world
(Pic: Flickr/dickuhne)

By Megan Darby

It’s snowing – does this mean global warming is a hoax?

Variations on this question pop up with depressing regularity, prompting scientists to patiently explain the distinction between weather and climate.

Short term fluctuations in atmospheric conditions are one thing, they say; the long term warming trend observed through thousands of scientific studies is another.

It is ironic then, that scientists are increasingly merging the weather and climate disciplines. As the science progresses and computing power makes ever more complex models possible, barriers between the two subjects are breaking down.

Deon Terblanche, research director at the World Meteorological Organization, tells RTCC this is a “very significant” development.

“The underlying science that describes the climate systems as a whole is very closely linked to the weather. We are running into many of the same issues.

“The user wants to have information about the risks of weather and climate in the future. The distinction is in the scientific community.”

World first

Terblanche is calling from Montreal, where some 1,000 scientists and experts are gathering for the first World Weather Open Science from 16 to 21 August.

These will include those concerned with the applications of weather and climate information as well as the hard core of scientists who produce it.

From water supply to disaster management and insurance, there are all sorts of sectors reliant on quality information about future rain, wind and sun.

Historically, they have looked to weather forecasters, but increasingly need to plan for longer term trends.

They want to know not only when a hurricane is on its way, but how weather patterns are likely to change in the coming decades.

“Climate change will mainly be felt through future weather events,” says Terblanche. “Climate science can learn more about operational engagement from the weather forecasters.”

While it is still “very difficult” to attribute individual weather events to climate change, “there is a shift in the frequency to what we observe,” says Terblanche.

Flooding after Hurricane Tomas in Haiti. Economic damage from extreme weather is rising
(Source: UN Photo/UNICEF/Marco Dormino)

That is important when it comes to building infrastructure, for example.

Weather forecasts have improved dramatically in recent years. A five-day forecast today is as reliable as a two-day forecast was 20 years ago, according to the WMO.

Accurate forecasts save lives. Early warning systems can help people get out of the way before heavy weather hits.

Yet while such improvements are helping to prevent deaths from weather disasters, the economic damage continues to rise.

In the US alone, climate change could halve crop yields and submerge property worth $500 billion according to a recent report backed by former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

“We are becoming more vulnerable,” says Terblanche. “It is a combination of more people, more investment in infrastructure and climate change.

“This is probably an indication the global population still does not fully consider climate information when they design and invest in infrastructure.

“We need to design cities that really take into account weather and climate much more comprehensively.”

The post Climate and weather science merge as forecasts improve appeared first on Climate Home News.

Pic: feserc/Flickr

By Gerard Wynn

Rapid warming of the Arctic may be linked with recent extreme weather in Europe and the United States, a paper found this week, finding more evidence for one piece in the jigsaw.

The impact of a warming Arctic on world weather is one of the hottest topics in meteorology.

The debate has spun out of observations that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the northern hemisphere, because of a combination of rising greenhouse gas emissions and melting sea ice.

One mechanism has been proposed to explain how such Arctic warming may be linked with more frequent extreme weather further south.

The theory has two parts. First, it is suggested that as the Arctic warms, the jet stream slows down, which in turn causes it to take a more meandering pattern, much like the path of a slow moving river.

Second, it is expected that a more meandering jet steam tends to get stuck in the particular shape that it adopts, meaning the same weather – whether hot, cold, wet or dry – continues for longer, creating problems of heat waves, snowfall, floods or droughts.

Making few allowances for the lay reader, scientists call those bigger, meandering curves of a slower jet stream its “amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves”.

The latest study focused on the second part of the theory, using observations to show that recent extreme weather did indeed coincide with a meandering pattern in the jet stream.

“There has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade,” the authors said in the journal Nature Climate Change.

“We show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves.

“Not only are temperature extremes associated with amplified waves on average, but also that there is a particularly strong association between the most highly amplified planetary waves and temperature extremes.

“The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.”

Frozen

The temperature difference between the frozen north and more southerly latitudes is the engine which drives the northern jet stream, which may therefore slow down as the Arctic warms.

The link with more extreme weather is still very much of a theory, coined by a researcher at the US-based Rutgers University two years ago, which requires more observation and climate modelling for fuller confidence.

The topic is of enormous interest because of the pace at which the Arctic is warming, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, a trend which has led to greater melting of sea ice in summer and is expected to continue.

At the same time, there has been a rash of extreme weather events over the past decade, affecting hundreds of millions of people in mid-latitude countries.

“A series of weather extremes have hit the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in recent years, such as the European heat wave in summer 2003, cold and snowy winters in 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2013/14 in the northeast United States, the Russian heat wave in summer 2010, the Texas drought of 2011, and the summer 2012 and winter 2013/14 floods in the United Kingdom,” this week’s paper said.

“All have had significant socio-economic impacts.”

The post Evidence grows that warming Arctic may cause extreme weather appeared first on Climate Home News.

Source: Flickr/European Commission DG ECHO

By Sophie Yeo in Warsaw

The impacts of Typhoon Haiyan were more extreme because of climate change, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said today.

Extreme sea level rise has made coastal communities more vulnerable to the storm surges that follow extreme weather events such as Haiyan, said Jerry Lengoasa, deputy head of the WMO. He was speaking today in Warsaw at the launch of WMO’s provisional report on the state of the climate in 2013.

The storm surges caused by the typhoon were “well in the order of 7 metres in some parts,” he said, while wind speeds reached above 250km per hour near the coast.

“The combination of extreme winds and waves is really what has caused the loss of life to the extent that it has,” said Longoasa.

“Of course we cannot attribute individual tropical storms to climate change at this stage, but…we can certainly say that higher sea levels are making coastal communities more vulnerable to tropical cycles and the associated storm surges,” he added, referring to the recent findings of the UN’s climate science panel in the IPCC report.

While he said that “the jury is still out” on whether intense tropical storms will become more frequent in the future, the extremity of individual events is expected to increase as a result of the measurable changes in the conditions that create the storms.

Climate talks

Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on Friday, just as negotiators began gathering in Warsaw for two weeks of discussions on a solution to climate change.

Since then, it has understandably taken centre stage at the negotiations, with Filipino negotiator Yeb Sano delivering an emotional speech on the toll the typhoon has taken on his country. He has pledged to fast throughout the two week long climate talks until meaningful progress has been made.

Sano challenged those who continue to deny climate change to “get off their ivory towers and away from the comfort of their armchairs” and see what has happened in the Philippines.

He said: “Science tells us that simply, climate change will mean increased potential for more intense tropical storms. As the Earth warms up, that would include the oceans.

“The energy that is stored in the waters off the oceans will increase the intensity of typhoons and the trend we now see is that more destructive storms will be the new norm.”

Expectations

While the most recent IPCC report said that there is “low confidence” that the number of intense tropical storms would increase during the early part of the century, it added that it was “more likely than not” that they would become more frequent in the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific, where the Philippines are located.

The report launched today by the WMO said that 26 storms have already passed through the Western Pacific this year, exceeding the 30 year average of 26—in spite of the fact that the typhoon season has not yet ended. And another storm is already brewing in the same area.

Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said that Haiyan has “probably been the strongest tropical storm that ever hit mainland since the beginning of observations,” and warned that global warming will aggravate the impact of these types of events in the future.

Increased devastation could be caused in the future by an increased chance of floods and landslides as a result of the increased rainfall, he said, on top of the storm surges caused by sea level rise.

Loss and damage

The disaster in the Philippines has crystallised the issue of loss and damage, where rich countries pay developing countries for the impacts of climate change that are already inevitable. For many negotiators, the aid that comes in the aftermath of extreme events is no longer enough.

Last minute discussions at last year’s climate talks in Doha promised a mechanism to deal with these payments, but the response so far at these talks has been unenthusiastic.

Although the EU has already donated €13m to the Philippines, Jurgen Lefevere, a climate policy adviser at the European Commission, said today that although there needed to be a work program on loss and damage, the focus at the moment should be on how the payments would help, rather than how they would be administered.

He said: “The real challenge here is not to create new institutions on top of other ones.”

The post Typhoon Haiyan more extreme due to climate change, says WMO appeared first on Climate Home News.

Location and type of events analyzed in the Paper (pic: NOAA)

By Sophie Yeo

Many of the extreme weather events that took place in 2012 were directly linked to changes in the earth’s climate, a new report has found.

The study, undertaken by 18 different research teams from around the world, found that some of the severe storms and floods, including Hurricane Sandy, could be scientifically attributed to rising temperatures and sea levels, which occur due to greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere.

Published by Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the paper suggests that climate change was directly responsible for events such as the shrinking of the Arctic sea ice, the extreme heat of the US summer, and the massive storm surges of Hurricane Sandy.

While these events could have happened anyway, the rising global temperatures influences the magnitude and frequency of these events.

For instance, increases in sea level have nearly doubled the probably of flooding on a Hurricane Sandy scale compared to 2050, the scientists say, while approximately 35% of the blistering US summer heat between March and May 2012 can be attributed to human-induced climate change.

Other events, such as the droughts across the US, eastern Kenya and Somalia, floods in northern China and heavy rain in southwestern Japan could not be directly attributed to global warming trends, and probably reflect natural variability in the weather.

Co-lead author Thomas Peterson, principal scientist at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, said, “Scientists around the world assessed a wide variety of potential contributing factors to these major extreme events that, in many cases, had large impacts on society.

“Understanding the range of influences on extreme events helps us to better understand how and why extremes are changing.”

Scientific advances

The researchers have created a more nuanced picture of the role that climate change plays in triggering extreme weather events by conducting thousands of runs of computer simulations, which examine the cause of 12 extreme events that occurred on five continents and in the Arctic during 2012.

The models looked at various factors, including moisture in the air, atmospheric flow, and sea temperature and level.

This represents something of a sea change in current thinking on climate science. Scientists have so far been reluctant to attribute one particular weather event to rising temperatures, but improved modelling means that now they are able to confidently quantify the likelihood of climate change causing the event.

“This report adds to a growing ability of climate science to untangle the complexities of understanding natural and human-induced factors contributing to specific extreme weather and climate events,” said Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.

“Nonetheless, determining the causes of extreme events remains challenging.”

The post Extreme weather in 2012 directly linked to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

By 2040, 3% of land will have heat waves of a strength rarely seen today (pic: flickr / Licancabur)

By Sophie Yeo

Extreme heat waves will increase over the next 30 years, regardless of the amount of carbon emitted between now and then.

Even if there is no increase in the amount of CO2, existing levels of climate change means that the planet is already locked in to a future where extreme heat waves, such as those experienced by the US in 2012, will cover double the amount of global land by 2020. By 2040, they will double.

Instead of highlighting the effect that our immediate carbon emissions will have on the climate, it emphasises that the impact that the continued rise in carbon emissions will start to materialise instead after 2040.

The study was published today in Environmental Research Letters and carried out by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM).

“There’re already so much greenhouse gases in the atmosphere today that the near term increase of heat extremes seems to be almost inevitable,” says Dim Coumou, the lead author on the study.

The scientists focused on heat waves that exceed the natural variability of summer month temperatures by a large margin in a given region – so called “3-sigma events”. These periods, lasting several weeks, often result in harvest losses, forest fires and additional deaths in heat-struck cities.

Today, this kind of extreme is witnessed on 5% of land area. By 2040, this will increase to 40%.

The heat waves classed as “more severe”, or “5-sigma events” – today virtually absent – will cover around 3% of the global land surface by 2040.

2040 and beyond

It is in the second half of the century that heat waves will start to be affected by today’s rising emissions.

Models show that under a low carbon scenario, the number of extremes will stabilise by 2040, whereas under a high emissions scenario, the land area affected by extremes will increase by 1% a year after 2040.

This means that by 2100, under a high emissions scenario, 3-sigma heat waves will cover 85% of the global land area, and 5-sigma heat waves will cover about 60% of global land.

According to the research, tropical regions will see the strongest increase in heat extremes – changes that can already be seen when analysing observations between 2000 and 2012.

“In general, society and ecosystems have adapted to extremes experienced in the past and much less so to extremes outside the historic range,” says Alexander Robinson of UCM, co-author of the study.

“So in the tropics, even relatively small changes can yield a big impact – and our data indicates that these changes, predicted by earlier research, in fact are already happening.”

Efforts to mitigate climate change through the reduction of carbon emissions may not prevent the kind of heat wave seen in Russia in 2010, where in the Moscow region the average temperature for the whole of July was around 7°C warmer than normal , say the researchers, but it will diminish its severity in the second half of the century.

The inevitability of extreme heat waves means that it becomes important for regions to focus on adaptation as well as mitigation.

Coumou says, “An increase in frequency is likely to pose serious challenges to society.

“Some regions will have to adapt to more frequent and more severe heat waves already in the near-term.”

The post Heat waves to quadruple by 2040, regardless of emissions cuts appeared first on Climate Home News.

Australia needs to improve its resilience to extreme weather events, warns government report (pic: flickr / pallotron)

By Sophie Yeo

Extreme weather events in Australia are likely to increase in intensity and frequency over the next few years, but the country isn’t ready for it, a government inquiry warns.

According to the Senate commissioned report, extreme weather events will not come about gradually, but can be expected to hit with full force in the near future – a phenomenon that Australia has already been witnessing over the past few years.

The many extreme weather events listed in the report include the 2013 bushfires, which caused widespread damage across the southern states, and the record breaking heatwave that occurred in January of this year.

Dr Andrew Glikson, a climate scientist who submitted to the report, said, “This is not a gradual trend. When you look at the behaviour of the atmosphere past and present, it reaches tipping points and from a certain degree of energy in the atmosphere you get very rapid events over periods ranging from decades to maybe a century or two.”

The Climate Committee said in the report that, “Climate change is already increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, adversely affecting Australians. Extreme events occur naturally and weather records are broken from time to time. However, climate change is influencing these events and record-breaking weather is becoming more common around the world.

High cost

The cost of such extremes in climate are likely to be high, warns the report – not only in terms of the financial costs incurred by governments and businesses, but also to the physical and psychological health of individuals who are caught up in natural disasters.

Deloitte Access Economics estimated in a report released in June that the total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia averaged $6.3 billion per year, and that this figure could double by 2030, and reach $23 billion by 2050.

The effects of climate change are being exacerbated by how Australians are making themselves increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events, as the population grows and expands across the continent.

“These events are becoming more expensive,” says a spokesman from the Insurance Council of Australia in the Sydney Morning Herald. “The driver of this is that more and bigger homes are being built in disaster-prone areas, such as flood plains.

“Much of [the cost] could have been avoided if the damaged properties had been built to be resilient to the risks.”

The report highlights the importance of preparing for extreme weather across sectors such as utilities, emergency services and industry if the impact upon people, property and economic stability are to be kept to a minimum.

John Connor of The Climate Institute, which compiled sectoral resilience and readiness indicators, said he was surprised to find that Australia’s resilience was “patchy”.

“We were surprised, given Australia’s history of extremes, that the readiness was patchy. It was poorly coordinated and reliant on historic data. Our infrastructure managers are walking backwards with blinkers on into an uncertain and high-risk feature,” he said.

The post Australia lacks resilience to climate change – report appeared first on Climate Home News.

It’s a question often debated by climate scientists, sceptics and the general public.

There’s no doubt we are now more aware of droughts, typhoons, storm surges and excessive cold or heat.

The UN climate science body the IPCC predicts climate change will benefit some areas, and cause immense damage to others.

And effects that scientists said could arise as a result of warming are now taking place – these include the loss of sea ice and accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves.

The World Resources Institute have compiled a useful timeline chronicling extreme weather events in 2012 and 2013 (below).

It illustrates the damage extreme weather can cause to countries and communities, and perhaps why it’s worth avoiding warming above 2 degrees.

Let us know what you think via the comments box below, or on our Twitter and Facebook pages.

The post Timeline: extreme weather and climate-related events in 2013 appeared first on Climate Home News.

The informal settlements in urban areas are the worst hit by climate change, due to poor infrastructure

By Sophie Yeo

The impacts of climate change are a daily reality for 8 out of ten Filipinos, according to a recent survey of 1,800 adults across the country.

In the World Bank commissioned survey, 85% of those questioned said that they were personally feeling the effects of climate change, which are particularly pronounced across South East Asia.

The Philippines are the third most vulnerable country in the world to extreme weather events, such as typhoons, floods, landslides and droughts.

Last December, for instance, Typhoon Bopha swept across the country, killing thousands, and official trends monitored by the government in the Philippines show that the rainy season has become wetter while the dry season has become drier.

Secretary Lucille Sering, the Vice Chairperson of the Climate Change Commission in the Philippines said, “In the last several years, the country has suffered extreme weather events including long dry spells, heavy rains as well as strong typhoons and floods like those caused by Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng.

These problems are aggravated by harmful practices that have led to the destruction of the forests, mangroves and corals, and the deterioration of the environment in general.

“Even some areas in Mindanao that we used to consider as ‘typhoon-free’ have recently been hit by very strong typhoons, floods and landslides.”

The effects are not limited to weather. According to the survey, climate change was also blamed for poor health, with many blaming the changes for dry skin, malaria and respiratory diseases.

Understanding impacts

There is a considerable disconnect between the number of people who say they are feeling the effects of climate change, and those who understand the impacts it could have in the future. 14% of Filipinos said they knew “almost nothing or nothing” about the expected impacts of climate change, while 38% said they knew “only a little”.

Yet, according to a global report released last month by the World Bank, climate impacts are on course to worsen over the coming decades. In particular, it highlighted that informal settlements, accounting for 45% of the urban population, will be particularly vulnerable to floods due to a poor infrastructure. Agricultural productivity in rural areas will diminish.

Yeb Sano, the Climate Change Commissioner in the Philippines, said that this lack of knowledge comes down to the complexity of the issue.

“Some people might know climate change in terms of mitigation or emissions, some people might know it limited to its impacts and some people might know it based on science,” he told RTCC.

“The survey shows 12% will have extensive understanding – that number probably represents people who know climate change in its whole spectrum.

“Climate change is basically so complex as a challenge that it would be really understandable if the population has a very small percentage of people who comprehend the concept altogether.”

Urban vs rural

Residents of urban areas feel the effects of climate change more strongly than their rural counterparts – 90% in the former compared to 79% in the latter. Understanding of the impacts of climate change is correspondingly higher in urban areas, with 52% saying they have at least a partial but sufficient knowledge, compared to 42% in rural areas.

“Extreme events when they happen do hit urban areas even more profoundly in general than the countryside, because of other factors that aggravate the climate challenge, including poor planning, misguided develop, environmental abuse and just the sheer volume of people who reside in urban centres,” explained Sano.

Those living in rural and coastal communities face threats to their livelihoods. The increasing acidification of the ocean across the whole of South East Asia will place enormous stress on coral reefs by 2050, damaging marine fisheries and tourism. Sano says that anecdotal evidence from farmers suggests that they are confused about when to plant and harvest, due to the rains coming in late.

“Many of the country’s poor derive income from agriculture, fishery and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change,” says Motoo Konishi, the World Bank Country Director for the Philippines.

“Many of them live in danger zones such as waterways, areas that are low lying and flood prone, critical slopes as well as coastal zones, making them vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events like strong typhoons and floods,”

In spite of this, efforts to reform climate change policy are limited in their effectiveness because they are only partially aligned with development plans, according to a recent review of the climate change situation in the Philippines by the World Bank. It suggests that the national, sectoral and local development plans do not fully cohere with the National Climate Change Action Plan.

Sano says, “We have 130 plus cities here and 1,500 municipalities. A national level of government agency like the Commission cannot practically cater directly, assisting all these local government units, so we need champions and we need communities that can serve as models.

“We are making a lot of headway there and the results are very promising. It’s not just on risk assessment. Now they are translating that into actions that they would include as part of their comprehensive development plan.

“It’s about answering the question on what kind of development they want, what matters most to them.”

The post 85% of Filipinos say they are feeling effects of climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

The previous decade was the warmest on land and sea since temperature measurements began in 1850.

Rapid melting and thermal expansion of the oceans contributed to a doubling of sea level rise compared to the 20th century average, according to the WMO’s Decade of Climate Extremes report.

The figures presented in the report demonstrates that temperatures have risen steadily for the past 150 years as greenhouse gas emissions have increased. Earlier this year the concentration of atmospheric CO2 exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time in 3 million years.

“A decade is the minimum possible timeframe for meaningful assessments of climate change,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the WMO.

“The report shows that global warming was significant from 1971 to 2010 and that the decadal rate of increase between 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was unprecedented.

“Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing our climate, with far reaching implications for our environment and our oceans, which are absorbing both carbon dioxide and heat.

Global warming accelerated 1971-2010, unprecedented from 1991-2000 to 2001-2010 #climatechange http://t.co/iNaKvzaXDg pic.twitter.com/qZaJrXPgZK

— WMO | OMM (@WMOnews) July 3, 2013

“Natural climate variability, caused in part by interactions between our atmosphere and oceans – as evidenced by El Niño and La Niña events – means that some years are cooler than others. On an annual basis, the global temperature curve is not a smooth one. On a long-term basis the underlying trend is clearly in an upward direction, more so in recent times,” said Jarraud.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which collates the latest scientific findings has reported the frequency of extreme weather events is likely to be affected by rising temperatures.

Warmer seas interfere with rainfall patterns, feed more energy to storms and have been tentatively linked to increasing hurricane frequency and the possibility of hurricane strength storms in Western Europe.

Massive flooding events in Pakistan, India and Thailand and huge storms in Haiti and the Philippines are among a long roster of extreme weather events in the past two years.

“Despite the significant decrease in casualties due to severe storms and flooding, the WMO report highlighted an alarming impact on health and mortality rates caused by the European and Russian heat-waves. Given that climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense heat-waves, we need to be prepared,” said Jarraud.

A June temperature record of 54°C was set in Death Valley National Park this week.

Next week the park celebrates the centenary of the world record temperature high of 56.7°C set on July 10, 1913.

The post UN warns decade of climate disruption set to continue appeared first on Climate Home News.

More intense thunderstorms combined with damaging winds are expected to occur because of climate change, according to speakers at the seventh European Conference on Severe Storms being held in Helsinki, Finland.

However because thunderstorms are small in size on the scale of existing climate models it is not possible to tell whether they will also lead to more tornadoes and larger size hail – two of the most damaging problems associated with severe storms.

Delegates at the conference – organised by the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the European Severe Storms Laboratory – are being told that the theory behind  forecasts for thunderstorms becoming more severe is based on the observation that, in a warmer world, the surface temperature and moisture increases create conditions for thunderstorms becoming more intense – and more frequent.

The effects of climate change are unlikely to be consistent around the world – but thunderstorms could be more common in the future

However climate change also decreases the temperature difference between the poles and the equator.

It is this temperature difference, when cold and warm air masses collide, which causes dangerous wind sheer, in turn producing the devastating tornadoes such as occurred last month in Oklahoma.

Due to the limitations of global models, scientists have so far been unable to say whether the risk of tornadoes increases as a result of these twin effects. Harold Brook, a researcher into severe thunderstorms at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in the US, is optimistic.

“According to latest research the intensity of tornadoes will not increase, therefore incidents like in Oklahoma are not expected to be more frequent than today” says Brook.

“However, most of the research on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in climate change has focused on the US and it is unclear how well the lessons learned there apply to the rest of the world.”

While tornadoes are less of a problem outside the US, heavy hail frequently causes severe crop losses and property damage in Central and Eastern Europe, across Bangladesh, India and other large land masses.  Lightning and large hail also kills people caught out in storms.

In some countries in Eastern Europe special planes are on standby each summer to seed the larger thunderclouds with chemicals to stop the build up of damaging hailstones which can severely damage crops and cause considerable economic loss.

Early warnings like air raid sirens are sounded so people can take shelter to avoid injury from hailstones.

Even in Finland where the Severe Storms conference is taking place lightning, strong wind gusts and hail from thunderstorms are the most damaging severe weather incidents.

This article was produced by the Climate News Network

The post Stormy weather set to increase due to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

By Izzy Braithwaite

The direct impacts of natural – and, in a warming world, ‘un’-natural – disasters are relatively straightforward to quantify.

They are also probably some of the easiest health impacts of climate change to evaluate (albeit with the caveat that we can only attribute trends to climate change, not single extreme weather events).

The deaths and injuries, and the epidemics that can happen in the wake of a flood or hurricane are in some ways more easily attributable than the impacts of extreme heat, or those of air pollution exacerbated by a heatwave.

Even so, the effects of extreme weather events on health, especially the longer-term impacts, can be difficult to evaluate fully.

Typhoon Bopha devastated the Philippines in December 2012 (Source: Flickr/Sonny M.Day)

Often they’re not the things we think of straight away: carbon monoxide poisoning or exposure to cold and mould for example, leptospirosis (an infection spread by rats) or even allergic reactions to bee and wasp stings, which have been shown to increase after hurricanes and flooding.

Then there’s what happens when the medical services are overwhelmed or a power outage makes storing drugs difficult. Pre-existing conditions often aren’t properly managed and deteriorate at that point, putting peoples’ health in danger further.

In addition to deaths from drowning and the physical health impacts of injuries, hypothermia, water-borne diseases etc, extreme events can also have severe and long-lasting effects on psychological wellbeing.

A month after Hurricane Katrina, 17% of residents reported signs of serious mental illness – compared to a general population average between 1 and 3%.

Equality

Equally important to bear in mind is the importance of inequality, which is a recurrent theme in practically all research and literature on climate change and health.

In the parts of the world where the biggest impacts from extreme weather events occur, there is often far less surveillance or data collection capacity and infrastructure to be able to assess the extent of impacts accurately than where we have more adaptive capacity and are better prepared.

In turn, this means that we may well be underestimating the true, global extent of the health effects of such events.

To take a recent illustration of these themes, Hurricane Sandy caused at least 71 deaths in the Caribbean and approximately 100 in New York, and had immense and devastating impacts on the economy and on peoples’ lives, which are still continuing for too many people.

Hurricane Sandy attracted an uneven volume of aid compared to more damaging storms of the past (Source: Flickr/Spleeness)

Had it made landfall somewhere poorer such as a Central American country, the death toll could have been significantly higher. Most likely it would also have received less coverage had it hit a poor country.

The side of Sandy that we heard much less of in the international media was the fact that it left 21,000 Haitians homeless and 1.5 million in a situation of severe food insecurity. Many of these were already in an extremely vulnerable situation after the 2010 earthquake and tropical storm Isaac two months prior to Sandy.

After Sandy, Congress approved a $9.7bn aid package, and has more recently approved $50 billion. On top of that, $854m was pledged by the international community.

Compare that to 1998’s Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua, where around 3800 people died (of 11000 total across Latin America) and more than a million were left homeless. In total, the aid received was just over $118.5m, based on the sum of the Secretariat of External Cooperation and the Red Cross Federation’s total figures.

Although the scale of need was arguably much greater, total funds were around 100 times lower than even the early US aid package for Sandy and nine times less than the international pledges made, including by countries as poor as Afghanistan and Uganda.

Putting a number on it

A recent report found that the total impacts of climate change on the global economy are of the order of $1.2 trillion, as well as contributing to 400,000 deaths. But determining and predicting the role of climate change in the spread and emergence of new or re-emerging infectious diseases is significantly more complex, especially when we try to integrate the effects that extreme events can have on infectious disease patterns, often in unpredictable ways.

In turn, investigation of how extreme events affect food and water security or – even less directly, economic stability or conflict – is even more complex.

It can be helpful to think of climate change as a threat multiplier rather than a causal factor, but it is the extremes where the real health risk, and the real unpredictability, lies.

The causal chain is so much more complex, and the effects less easily demonstrable, yet these could potentially have much bigger effects on health, than the more direct impacts.

Threat multiplier

Although hurricanes aren’t caused by climate change as such (see the IPCC’s report on extreme weather) there is good evidence that when they do occur such storms are made stronger by its other effects.

Rising temperatures mean more moisture in the atmosphere – for every 1°C rise, air can hold 7% more moisture – resulting in much heavier rain. Climate change also drives rising sea levels and so an increased risk of storm surges.

The global sea level has risen approximately an inch in the last decade alone, which further increases the threat when landfall coincides with an extra-high tide, as in the case of Sandy, and flooding can start even before landfall.

The Weather Channel’s senior meteorologist Stu Ostro said Sandy represented “a meteorologically mind-boggling combination of ingredients coming together…an extraordinary situation.”

The odds are that it has made ones like Katrina and Sandy more severe than they would have been without it – yet in the sort of irony you really couldn’t make up, $400m of the international pledges made, were offered in oil.

Events like these are also part of an ongoing trend of more frequent and more extreme events in recent decades: this series around the globe last year, taken together, are unprecedented in their size and frequency.

The health effects of extreme weather can be severe, even in rich countries, and much worse in poor ones: we can’t afford to hope they’re all just coincidences, and we can’t afford to wait.

Izzy Braithwaite is a member of Healthy Planet UK

The post The hidden health threats of extreme weather events appeared first on Climate Home News.

The cause of much of the recent extreme weather across the world is climate change triggered by human activities, scientists say.

The Earth has experienced a range of severe regional weather extremes in recent years, including the heat waves of 2011 in the US and 2010 in Russia, a year that also brought the unprecedented Pakistan floods.

Behind these distinct events, though, there is a common physical cause, according to a team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.

Their paper, which helps to explain the mechanism that is causing an increasing number of weather extremes, has the less than catchy title of Quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes, and will be published this week in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Superstorm Sandy left a Jersey Shore roller coaster left ruined in the Atlantic Ocean (Source: Flickr/Jim.Greenhill)

The paper suggests that man-made climate change is repeatedly disturbing the patterns of airflow around the northern hemisphere, bringing extreme conditions.

This airflow has always travelled in waves round the planet, the wave movements caused by the difference in temperature between the oceans and land surfaces. These in turn cause changes in the high altitude air currents, particularly the jet stream.

Lead author Vladimir Petoukhov explains: “An important part of the global air motion in the mid-latitudes of the Earth normally takes the form of waves wandering around the planet, oscillating between the tropical and the Arctic regions.

“So when they swing up, these waves suck warm air from the tropics to Europe, Russia, or the US, and when they swing down, they do the same thing with cold air from the Arctic.

“What we found is that during several recent extreme weather events, these waves almost freeze in their tracks for weeks. So instead of bringing in cool air after having brought warm air in, the heat just stays. In fact we observe a strong amplification of the usually weak, slow-moving component of these waves.”

Tested against the data

Time is critical here: two or three days of 30˚C are no problem, but 20 days or more lead to extreme heat stress, the authors say. Since many ecosystems and cities are not adapted to temperatures this high, prolonged hot periods can cause many deaths, as well as forest fires and serious crop losses.

Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels does not mean uniform warming – in the Arctic the relative rise in temperatures, amplified by the loss of snow and ice, is higher than average.

This in turn reduces the temperature difference between the Arctic and, for example, Europe. Yet it is this temperature difference that is normally a main driver of airflow, including the jet streams.

Additionally, continents generally warm and cool more readily than the oceans. They always have. But, coupled with the new changes to the jet streams, the net result is to trap the energy of the slow-moving parts of the waves.

“These two factors are crucial for the mechanism we detected,” says Petoukhov. “They result in an unnatural pattern of the mid-latitude airflow, so that for extended periods the slow waves get trapped.”

The authors tested their assumptions using standard daily weather data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). During recent periods in which several major weather extremes occurred, they did observe the trapping and strong amplification of particular waves.

‘A breakthrough’

The data show an increase in the occurrence of these specific atmospheric patterns which is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level.

“Our dynamical analysis helps to explain the increasing number of novel weather extremes. It complements previous research that linked such phenomena to climate change, but had not yet identified a mechanism behind it”, says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK and co-author of the study.

“This is quite a breakthrough, even though things are not at all simple – the suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability.”

The 32-year period of the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved but is too short to allow definite conclusions.

Still, scientists are surprised by how far beyond experience some of the recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of extraordinary weather is not just a straightforward linear response to the average warming trend, and the proposed mechanism could explain that.

This article was produced by the Climate News Network

The post Climate change and extreme weather linked in new research appeared first on Climate Home News.

The NASA image shows temperature anomalies, the amount that measurements were above or below average, with dark red 15°C above and dark blue 15°C below.

Temperature anomaly map of Australia from January 1-8, 2013. (Source: NASA)

The period of intense heat earlier this month saw a new shade of purple added to some weather maps to account for temperatures above 50°C.

It has been described by Australian meteorologists as “very unusual” and Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said it is likely a symptom of continued climate change.

“If you look at the trend then I think that’s pretty unmistakable and any proper analysis would tell you that we are heading in that direction,” he told ABC radio during a recent IPCC meeting in the country.

The US also experienced extreme heat with 2012 the warmest year in record. Drought affected more than 60% of the country during July 2012 causing $20bn of agricultural losses.

Other extreme events plagued the USA throughout the year.

While one erratic set of results cannot be attributed to climate change in and of itself, the stacking up of temperature records in the past 10 years and the rising average temperatures on a decadal scale, present increasingly strong evidence of climate change.

Australian heat wave in numbers

The last four months of 2012 set a national temperature anomaly record of +1.61°C

New national average temperature record of 40.33°C set on January 7, 2013

A new high for the overnight minimum temperature 32.36°C was also set that night

Each of first eight days of 2013 were among 20 hottest on record

Sydney witnessed its hottest day on record on January 18 with temperatures hitting 45.8°C

The post NASA image reveals extent of Australian heat wave appeared first on Climate Home News.

The impacts of climate change are visible across the length and breadth of the US, according to the draft release of the government’s National Climate Assessment.

Receding sea ice in Alaska, coastal vulnerability to storm surges in Florida and nationwide drought are among some of the threats already identified in the States.

The report, issued to the President once every four years, brings together work by 240 academics and compiled by the US Global Change Research Program, which incorporates a number of government departments including energy, agriculture, public health and commerce.

Record high temperatures and widespread drought are among the climate change impacts visible across the US. (Source: Flickr/Claire.M)

“Global climate is changing, and this is apparent across the US in a wide range of observations. The climate change of the past 50 years is due primarily to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels,” the draft states.

The US was afflicted by a number of extreme weather events in 2012 including Superstorm Sandy and severe drought. While it is not possible to link these directly to climate change, their frequency and severity has changed.

“Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and there is new and stronger evidence that many of these increases are related to human activities,” according to the draft, which is now subject to a public consultation and review process.

The report states that coastal regions are vulnerable to inland flooding with storm surges putting transport, water supply and other infrastructure at risk.

Reduced crop yields and rising commodity prices will affect food markets although the initial findings state that agriculture will be largely resilient in the US for the next 25 years.

Record heat

Last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that record average temperatures were reached in 2012.

Drought affected more than 60% of the country while storms, including Superstorm Sandy brought widespread flooding.

President Obama has pledged to make climate change a priority in his second term and is thought to be considering a summit on the issue later this year to begin work on a new national climate change strategy.

While there is significant and vocal opposition to climate change action from individual members of congress and senators, US government departments accept the findings of climate science.

The Department of Defense has classified climate change as a national security threat, a sentiment echoed by the incoming Secretary of State John Kerry.

NOAA EXTREME WEATHER MAP: CLICK TO ENLARGE

NOAA EXTREME WEATHER MAP: CLICK TO ENLARGE

The post Climate change nation: Evidence of impact visible across US appeared first on Climate Home News.

– The day’s top climate change stories as chosen by RTCC
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– Updated from 0830-1700 BST (GMT+1)

Monday 14 January

US: Climate change is already having an effect on the US according to a new report by the US government. A draft of the 2013 National Climate Assessment, made available for public review, states that the US is already witnessing the impacts of climate change and that there is “new and stronger evidence” that climate change is increasing extreme weather events. (US Government)

UAE: Abu Dhabi has announced plans for a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) scheme that will see 800,000 tonnes of CO2 from a steel maker injected into an oil well. The plan was revealed at the start of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. (The National)

Australia: Climate scientist professor Ian Lowe has called on Australia to use its election to the UN Security Council to make climate change a priority there. Professor Lowe, who has written several books on the threat of global warming also called for a higher price on carbon emissions to encourage their reduction. (Sydney Morning Herald)

Arctic: Strict environmental regulations are slowing down oil exploration in the Arctic according to several oil executives. Although drilling has begun, albeit slowly, in US water, strict rules are holding up the process elsewhere. “Progress with getting sanction for exploration drilling is slow,” Andrew Latham of Wood Mackenzie told the Financial Times. “Everyone’s being very careful.” (Financial Times)

Australia: As the country continues to be in the grip of an extreme heat wave and widespread bush fires, Australians are also be warned of the threat to A$300bn worth of property. Alan Stokes from the National Sea Change Task Force says there is a genuine threat to Australian’s “beachfront lifestyle”. The UN climate science body, the IPCC, meets in Hobart, Australia later this week. (ABC)

China: China is to join the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) it has been announced. “It is impressive what China is doing in terms of development of both wind and solar technologies. They have some state-of-the-art knowledge, which is very relevant for different parts of the world,” said Dr Adnan Amin, IRENA’s secretary general. (The National)

California: Greenhouse gas emissions in California fell 5.6% in 2011 compared to the previous year. The state’s Air Resources Board requires big emitters such as power plants, cement factories and oil and gas facilities to publish their emissions annually. The state’s carbon trading scheme went live at the turn of the year. (California Air Resources Board)

The post US report makes extreme weather link to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

The NOAA’s annual report released yesterday confirmed 2012 as the warmest year on record for the lower 48 states by a clear margin. It was also the second most extreme year of weather experienced with record temperatures, droughts, wildfires and hurricanes lashing the country.

While not all of these events are directly linked to climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events is increasing, an effect some have termed “loading the dice“.

NOAA EXTREME WEATHER MAP: CLICK TO ENLARGE

NOAA EXTREME WEATHER MAP: CLICK TO ENLARGE

“Climate change has played a role. So has local variation, it’s impossible to determine how much each has had,” said Jake Crouch, climate scientist, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

The drought, which covered 65% of the US at its peak in July, contributed to agricultural losses of $20bn in a year that racked up $160bn of damage globally. Crouch stressed that drought conditions still prevail in parts of the US.

The drought is expected to have an impact on global food prices later in 2013.

Hurricane Sandy, was the single most costly event financially with the flooding of densely populated coastal regions of New York and New Jersey causing huge property damage.

Low snowfall also means that their will be less meltwater and so lower river levels to top up reservoirs in the Spring and early Summer.

Droughts are also expected to impact future US energy plans with Californian renewables expansion expected to aggravate water scarcity further.

Wildfires were also widespread with an area the size of Switzerland affected by burning.

Alaska bucked the warming trend with a local variation in the North Pacific keeping the state cool.

The post US 2012 weather extremes mapped appeared first on Climate Home News.

2012 was the warmest year on record for most of the US, according to a new report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The latest data shows that the lower 48, all the states apart from Alaska and Hawaii, experienced the second most extreme year of weather as well as record high average temperatures.

The average temperature for the year was 12.9°C, 1.7°C above the 20th century average and 0.5°C above the previous record set in 1998.

“In 117 years of data the record low temperatures to 1998’s previous record high average, all sit within a four degree Fahrenheit band, 2012 is 1 degree Fahrenheit above that band,” said Jake Crouch, climate scientist, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

“This is consistent with what we would expect in a warming world but it is one data point and proves nothing on its own.”

Increased tropical storms, drought, wildfires and record high temperatures made the weather of 2012 the second most extreme. (Source: NASA Goddard)

“Compared to the past, this result is an outlier, we expect these warmer temperatures to occur more frequently in the future however. The US has been warming and will continue to do so,” said Crouch.

“Climate change has played a role. So has local variation, it’s impossible to determine how much each has had.”

The year set many new precedents including a record warm spring, the second warmest summer and the fourth warmest winter. Autumn was only above average.

“Unfortunately, this won’t be the last time we break records like this,” said Angela Anderson, the director of the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“The longer we delay reducing emissions, the more climate change we’re going to lock in. The president has promised to make climate change a priority in his second term, but he needs to turn those words into action.

“The price tag for dealing with unchecked climate change makes the fiscal cliff look like a crack in the sidewalk.”

Extreme

NOAA measures how extreme a year’s weather has been by looking at the number of tropical storms that make landfall as well as the number of daytime and night-time record temperatures and the precipitation record.

1998 remains the most “extreme” year, largely as a result of the greater number of tropical storms that made landfall.

The US experienced widespread drought with 60% of the country under drought conditions at one point.

Agricultural losses hit $20bn and global food prices are expected to spike as a result.

It was the third most active tropical cyclone season ion the North Atlantic with the most famous storm, Sandy causing damage as far north as the Eastern Canadian coast as well as across New York, Connecticut and New Jersey.

Despite this, the storm had been downgraded by the time it hit the US so it did not contribute to the years extreme rating.

CHECK OUT this map of preliminary Significant U.S. #Climate Events for 2012 from .@noaancdc: 1.usa.gov/UyP9rX

— NOAA (@NOAA) January 8, 2013

The post 2012 warmest year on record for USA appeared first on Climate Home News.

January

The year started with a controversial decision from the EU to include aviation in its ETS (Source: chris.loxton/Flickr)

01/01: The New Year sees aviation included in the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme. The decision, which aims to charge all flights in and out of the EU for the carbon emitted for their entire journey, begins a year long battle pitching the EU against other countries and the airline industry.

08/01: Stephen Hawking celebrates his 70^th birthday with a warning that climate change will be one of the greatest threats posed to the future of human-kind and the world. Speaking to the BBC he says: “It is possible that the human race could become extinct but it is not inevitable. I think it is almost certain that a disaster, such as nuclear war or global warming will befall the earth within a thousand years.”

15/01: Philips tell RTCC their LED lighting could replace 88 billion litres of kerosene a year. “We are at a tipping point in the LED revolution,” Harry Verhaar, senior director energy & climate change tells us.

23/01: US climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe tells us her profession is feeling under threat after a series of attacks from sceptics. “The abuse, the virulence, the hatred is astonishing. And much of it is coming from people who share much of the same values as I do, and that’s what is so hurtful about it. It’s a wholestyle rejection – you can be right for 99/100, but if you differ on point 100 you deserve anything that people give you.”

February

07/02: Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed, a leading voice for climate vulnerable states, resigns after a coup. He had brought the plight of climate vulnerable nations – particularly the small island states – to international attention.

16/02: The US launches a voluntary emissions reduction scheme aimed at tackling short-lived climate pollutants, including methane, soot and hydroflourocarbons (HFCs). The Climate and Clean Air Coalition targets pollutants that have a greater effect than CO2 but a shorter lifecycle.

21/02: Research from NASA provides further proof that human activity is behind climate change, showing that despite low solar activity from 2005-2010, the planet had absorbed more heat than it returned to outer space.

March

The EU agrees to set 2030 renewable targets (Source: Mattburns.co.uk)

15/03: The European Parliament votes in favour of setting a binding renewable energy target for 2030, but fails to decide what that target should be.

20/03: Australia passes a controversial tax on coal and iron ore mining companies, ending a two-year long dispute between the industry and the government.

26/03: A study published in Nature Geosciences finds temperatures could rise by as much as 3°C by 2050. The research uses almost 10,000 simulations and warns even moderate emissions could see the world cross the 2°C barrier at some point this century.

28/03: The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change releases a special report that finds extreme weather events could become more likely, more frequent and more extreme with worsening climate change.

April

23/04: Mexico becomes the second country in the world to begin legislating against climate change, when its House of Representatives passes a climate law requiring the whole country to reduce its carbon by 50% by 2050.

24/04: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon calls for the Rio+20 Earth Summit to create a sustainable development index that would replace GDP as the main measure of a country’s advancement.

30/04: The Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approves controversial legislation on forests which would ease rules on the amount of forest farmers have to keep on their land. The move sparks a month of protests across the country and the world calling on the country’s President Dilma Rousseff to veto the law, and ends with her vetoing some parts of the Bill.

May

Report warns that companies rushing into the Arctic could impact on the ecosystems that exist there (Source: USFWS/Flickr)

03/05: A report from leading insurers Lloyd’s of London warns that rushing too fast into exploration of the Arctic could lead to ruined ecosystems.

07/05: South Korea became the latest country to establish a carbon trading platform.

25/05: Research from the Climate Action Tracker project warns that governments are extending rather than shrinking the gap between their climate change policies and what they need to do to limit warming to less than 2°C.

25/05: An intersessional meeting of the UNFCCC in Bonn leaves delegates feeling “sad” after it exposes the weaknesses of the Durban Platform deal. A central issue discussed is equity – here’s our take on those discussions.

June

11/06: A new study examining the rising ocean temperatures over the past 50 years finds that man-made emissions have been largely responsible.

19/06: The leaders of the G20 group of countries meet and agree to the full implementation of the UNFCCC COP16 and COP17 agreements.

21/06: Greenpeace launchetheir Save the Arctic campaign which aims to get a UN resolution passed demanding a global sanctuary around the North Pole and a ban on oil drilling and unsustainable fishing in the wider Arctic zone.

22/06: The Rio+20 Earth Summit concludes in Brazil with little to show for the year of preparation and fortnight of discussions. While there are some successes of the conference, including a greater focus on oceans, and an agreement to move forward with the Sustainable Development Goals, civil society show their frustration over the weak text with a mass walkout.

July

Coral reefs face total collapse because of climate change, according to research in Science (Source: USFWS Pacific/Flickr)

06/07: New research in Science shows that climate change once caused the total collapse of reef systems in the Eastern Pacific lasting 2500 years, and could be on the verge of doing so again.

10/07: Researchers from the UK’s Met Office and USA’s National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration find that climate change is increasing the chance of extreme weather events.

24/07: Data from NASA shows that an extreme melt event in Greenland in mid-July caused 97% of the ice sheet’s surface to disappear. Such events occur around every 150 years according to NASA.

31/07: Research from Berkley Earth finds that the average global temperature of the Earth’s land has warmed 1.5°C over the past 250 years and that the warming was due to humans.

The temperature of the Earth’s land surface, as determined from over 36,000 temperature stations around the globe. (Berkley Earth)

August

03/08: US Special Envoy for Climate Change, Todd Stern suggests that the 2°C target should be dropped from future climate change negotiations.

17/08: The US drought monitor reports that 30% of the country is in extreme to exceptional drought, amidst fears over agriculture production and rising food prices.

22-23/08: The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Maria van der Hoeven says that limiting global temperature rises to 2°C is still possible despite the world’s current trajectory. But the UK government’s scientific advisor and former IPCC chief Bob Watson disagrees, saying the target is “out of the window.”

28/08: Australia announces it will join the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Having already established plans for its own domestic system, the Australian government says this will be fully integrated into the EU scheme by 2018.

28/08: Data from the European Space Agency warns that the Arctic could be ice free in summer by the end of the decade.

September

12/09: The UN climate talks in Bangkok end with a “draft” document on the 2^nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

The IEA’s chief economist warns world is heading to ‘doomsday’ scenario (Source: *~Dawn~*)

12/09: Fatih Birol, the Chief Economist for the International Energy Agency warns of a doomsday scenario for climate change unless investment in low carbon technology is not ramped up in the next five years. He says the world is on a pathway to 6°C in temperature rise.

19/09: Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA shows that the summer sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to its lowest seasonal minimum since satellite records begun.

20/09: The EU and China announce details of a deal that will see the two countries work together on a series of environmental and climate projects including the design of a Chinese carbon market.

October

01/10: The 2012 edition of DARA’s Climate Vulnerability Monitor finds that the carbon economy and the impacts of climate change could be responsible for five million deaths a year. This figure combines 700,000 deaths as a result of climate change impacts and over four million from the health impacts of the world’s carbon intensive economy.

24/10: Songdo, Incheon City in the Republic of Korea is selected to host the Green Climate Fund.

31/10: Hurricane Sandy hits the US’s East Coast, devastating communities in New Jersey and New York. Just a week before the US elections the storm helps to put climate change back on the election agenda as Mayor Bloomberg of New York gives his support to President Obama in its wake.

November

President Obama re-affirmed his commitment to climate change as he was re-elected (Source: White House)

08/11: President Obama is re-elected in the US and uses his election speech to re-affirm his commitment to climate change.

10/11: The Arab Youth Climate Movement launches ahead of the UN climate talks in Qatar – and is widely hailed as offering ‘new hope’ in the fight against climate change in the Middle East.

12/11: Australia announces it will sign up for a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, but New Zealand becomes the latest country to walk away from the scheme.

13/11: The EU announces a freeze on airlines’ inclusion in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme while the International Civil Aviation Organisation works on a new agreement on aviation emissions.

14/11: The Californian carbon market holds its first auction.

20/11: The World Meteorological Organisation’s latest Greenhouse Gas Bulletin finds the volume of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2011.

20/11: A report from the World Bank warns the world is on a pathway to a 4°C temperature rise by 2100 unless urgent action is taken on climate change.

22/11: The United Nations Environment Programme warns that the emissions gap (the gap between current pledges and the action needed to stay below 2°C) is widening and says efforts to reduce carbon emissions must be accelerated.

28/11: Poland is announced as the hosts for the COP19 climate conference next December.

December

Figueres show carbon emissions expected to reach a record high in 2012 (Source: foto43/Flickr)

03/12: Figures from the Global Carbon Project reveal that global carbon dioxide emissions are set to reach a record high in 2012.

04/12: Typhoon Bopha hits the Philippines and offers a timely reminder to the delegates at the UN climate conference in Doha about the potential impacts of climate change. The head of the Philippines delegation tells the conference that the world is at a “critical juncture” on climate change.

10/12: The COP18 climate summit ends with the Doha Gateway, including a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The final hours of the talk leave many confused, as the COP18 President passes all texts in minutes.

Russia expresses anger at being ignored in the final moments, while NGOs criticise a ‘weak deal’.

VIDEO: COP18 President Al Attiyah gavels through the ‘Doha Climate Gateway’

15/12: A fierce Cyclone smashes through the Pacific state of Samoa, and then sets course for Fiji. The storm leaves at least four people dead, with eight missing, and an estimated 200 injured.

18/12: Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows November 2012 to be the 333^rd consecutive month where global temperatures were above the 20^th century average.

Source: NOAA – Click to enlarge

The post RTCC’s 2012 review – a year in climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

For the population of Cameroon, climate change is not a distant worry but an everyday reality.

It has brought more erratic weather patterns, increases in rainfall and flooding in the south, and rising temperatures, drought and desertification in the north.

For many households living in the Lake Chad region, migration is the only option.

But how much do the communities in Cameroon know about the impacts of climate change they are experiencing?

According to Jean Paul Affana, the answer is not enough. His youth NGO, Vital Actions for Sustainable Development aims to boost awareness of climate change in the hope of creating a country, and eventually an Africa, filled with eco-citizens.

As part of RTCC’s youth series he tells me about some of the ways they try to educate the country.

What is your group doing and what areas of work do you focus on?

We are a young group of people working on addressing education for sustainable development and training young people and children to be agents of change.

We also focus on climate change and human rights because we think that access to a clean and healthy environment is a right for children. We want to provide them with the skills so that they understand sustainable development and can act as agents of change.

We have three levels of intervention. One is at the national level, one is at the regional level across Africa and the other one is across the international level.

At the national level for example in November 2009 we launched a joint competition asking for children and youth to submit drawings addressing the theme ‘What do you do for your planet?’

We had more than 100 entries and were able to see from what they had submitted how they understand their role as agents of change to protect our environment. Also how they understand their role as mobilisers, how they can mobilise the people around them – their families and their communities – to protect the environment.

At the end we organised an award ceremony and invited many people; our partners, the winners, the participants, local NGOs and also the general public. We also organised an exhibition at the end of the ceremony so we were able to showcase the work for a period of time.

In 2010, one of the key projects we had was the ‘I Vote for Climate’ campaign. We had a presidential election in Cameroon, in October 2011 and we wanted to raise awareness among the people about how we should care about the environment and sustainable development and fighting against climate change.

We had many people who were interested in the topic. The campaign encouraged people not only to vote for the candidate they liked but also to vote for the candidate that is raising important policy issues and strong activities on climate – the person who if elected would raise the role of the citizen in addressing environmental issues.

We set out a petition, asking people to sign and to really encourage all of the candidates to support environmental policies and strong policies on addressing climate change issues in Cameroon.

We had more than 6000 signatures from around the country and many people inviting us to talk about the campaign and propose and present our objectives. We also raised awareness through the media.

This campaign was really successful because even if the candidates didn’t really sign our petition or did not commit to improve the way they would address environmental issues if they were elected as president of the Republic, we raised a lot of awareness among the people.

Participation was very high and we had our volunteers going around the country in their teams meeting with people and encouraging them to sign the petition. This was also about building a movement because we didn’t do the campaign alone, we had many NGOs involved and we all did it together.

One of the projects that we are still running at the moment is about how we can celebrate the year for access to clean energy for all, which is being organised by the UN.

We joined up with the French Embassy in Cameroon, we got support from them, and then we mobilised partners, like universities, the IUCN, artists and a foundation called Good Planet.

What we did with this project is launch another drawing competition about how young people and children understand what we can do to address the lack of access to sustainable energy.

We selected the winners – we had 50 shortlisted and then 20 winners – and with their drawings we started to put together an exhibition, which is going to be inaugurated on January 16 in Cameroon next year. It is going to travel around the country with the exhibition to show people what children and youth think about access to clean energy for all and how they see their role.

The ‘I Vote for Climate’ aimed to encourage more awareness of climate change issues in the run up yo the countries election (Source: AVD)

What results have you seen from your work so far?

The first result we have seen is that we have been able to promote volunteering in Cameroon. It is not easy for people to see that they can commit their time, energy and resources to do something if they don’t gain something directly back, like money or materials, for their commitment. Volunteering in Cameroon is something very difficult to promote but through our actions we have been able to mobilise local volunteers.

All of our team members are working on a voluntary basis. What we do, is not only work as a small team, but bring in many people to join us and work with us including children, youth and adults and our family members as well.

This is one of our key achievements so far.

Another result we have seen is that we have been able to become well known by the people because they saw that we are able to implement active and concrete projects.

For example the ‘I Vote for Climate’ campaign was very visible and people were able to follow a specific campaign organised by a youth NGO and relate it to the presidential election. That is not common in Cameroon.

When the elections are happening people are so afraid of what could happen in the event that the results are not accepted by the people that they don’t focus on anything else in between. For us the election was a key opportunity to really raise awareness about issues that matter for the people.

That is why we were able to achieve a lot by having 6000 people signing one petition in Cameroon, this is not common, and is not easy. But we were able to achieve it and able to present the results one month after the elections at the COP17 conference of the UNFCCC in Durban last year.

We presented our results there. Greenpeace supported us to implement this campaign and they helped us to show it to other partners as an example of what we can do in raising awareness among people who care about these issues and who can encourage their political leaders to do what they believe is good for the people.

Another result we have seen is education. Education for sustainable development is also something not very common for us because people are more concerned about how they can succeed in their own lives and how they can help their family, how they can have enough money for their living costs.

But we have brought up the question of educating people on how we can manage our resources in a more sustainable way.

Our strategy is to use children and young people’s creativity and their passion. That is why we organise a lot of competitions because we think that using non-formal approaches to raise awareness is very successful. Using dance, music, drawing, theatre and drama, is something that can really raise awareness amongst the people.

They will see your drawing or they will watch your small music video and at the same time they will also improve the knowledge they have or they want to have about the topic you have raised.

We have been able to educate people and to see the results because some of the children or the young people involved in our programmes, when they are back in their families they are really able to raise awareness and mobilise more people to care about the topic.

Another result is being able to build partnerships with NGOs. When we started our first project we only had our team and then we were mobilising the resources by ourselves. At the moment now we have external partners supporting us and this is wonderful because if you don’t start with your own links and your own resources then people will not see the good you are doing.

When you start doing something and people see that what you are doing has an impact, they will start to support you.

That is why we also have international volunteers supporting us. Last year we had someone from the UK and Poland. This year we have someone from the US and we have also had volunteers from Germany and from France. That shows how successful we are and how we have been able to mobilise more people to support our work.

What are the challenges you have faced in your work?

The first challenge is that it is very difficult to mobilise local volunteers. Young people, some of them have the skills to do something for their community but they do not want to do it because for them it doesn’t make sense to commit your time, your energy and your resources doing something for your community.

We still try to raise more awareness of this need for young people to volunteer and join organisations that are doing something so that the impact is bigger. For us it is changing. We try to explain and to get them involved in our programmes, but for them they only want to get involved if they gain something and for us it does not make sense that someone is volunteering if they expect to get something material in return.

The group took their experience of running a campaign and shared it with others at the UN climate talks in Durban in 2011 (Source: AVD)

Another challenge is trying to connect our local world with the international community. At the beginning it was very difficult for us because we didn’t understand the importance of connecting the dots.

When we were running some of our first campaigns, we were not connecting them with what other people were doing. For example the very first activity we had was related to water management and how people can get access to clean water. We did it was just before the National Day of Water and we didn’t make the connection between the local and the international campaigns.

One of the challenges we still have at the moment is capacity building. Our members are very well skilled in some activities but some of them still need to be more empowered to be more effective.

We couldn’t manage people very well in the beginning and couldn’t give more skills to our members. We have tried and we still try but it is still a challenge at the moment.

How can we make it so that our members are more empowered to deliver the results we want and how can we show them that we provide our volunteers with specific skills that they need to be able to deliver the tasks at the same time.

We try to address it and to improve but it is not easy.

What support have you seen for your work?

In terms of local support, we have many networks at the national level, like the African Youth Initiative on Climate Change (AYICC). We belong to the national chapter network in Cameroon.

We also have the network for African Youth for Central African Forests that we joined some years ago and through this network we are able to connect with other organisations and to work together.

That is why for the ‘I Vote for Climate Change’ campaign we were able to have more people and more support because we were not working alone but with other NGOs.

We are also trying to get institutional support, which has been a challenge. Having support from our governments is not very easy. We have tried to connect with them many times and we still try but the problem is that our government is not open all of the time to collaborate with NGOs and civil society.

We are lucky because we are able to connect with the Ministry for the Protection of the Natural Environment and we have worked with them in terms of policy and also the implementation of specific projects. It is still difficult.

We do have support from international organisations based here. The embassy of France in Cameroon has supported us a lot and has provided us with funding to deliver on our on going projects.

We have some development partners supporting our work, mostly coming from other civil society organisations.

What impacts are you seeing locally from climate change?

We have seen disruption of our access to food. Some years ago getting food was so easy for people, the food was very cheap and people were able to buy food and improve their living conditions because it was not that expensive.

But because of the impact of climate change at the moment, the price of food is increasing so much that people have to use more money to buy food and this is very difficult because people do not have enough resources. For them it is very difficult.

Another impact now is migration. People living in the regions where climate change impacts are most visible like the northern parts of Cameroon are migrating to the southern parts of the country.

In the north of the country we have deserts so desertification is affecting people and they are not able to survive and have to migrate. Then we have more and more people coming from the north who are moving to the south and it is very difficult for the authorities and the local governments to mange these floods of people.

It is also difficult because some of them when they arrive in new cities they do not have jobs, they can not afford their living costs and the only solution for them for example is to practice crime. Crime is very high now and it is difficult for the government to address it.

People sometimes are ignorant to the fact that all of this is related to climate change impacts. They do not see this link with climate change and just see that there is more crime.

One of the impacts that is also visible at the moment is the impact on education. The education is destabilised because when those people are migrating from one region to another they also move their families. If they have children they are not able to follow their education curricula because they are moving with their parents.

It can be very confusing to them. Changing one school or three schools during one year is not very easy for children.

We have many people who are not educated and the parents are not able to stay in the same region because they want to move away from the climate change impacts.

Another impact is how the seasons are changing. In the south there are not the same seasons now than previously.

We have confusion about what is going on, with the dry seasons and the rainy seasons, and this is also affecting agriculture because people are not able to practice agriculture if they are not able to master how the seasons are changing. This is affecting food security.

What would be your vision for 2050? How do we get there?

We have one vision that is also our motive since the beginning when we were created is that we want every single citizen in this world to become an eco-citizen. Because eco-citizenship is the solution if we want to address climate change and sustainable development.

People are very concerned with how institutions and governments can protect their rights, but sometimes do not think about how they can contribute.

Having access to a healthy and sustainable environment is one of the rights that people are really concerned about but they don’t care about how they can contribute to this themselves. If they were to become eco-citizens then they could seriously contribute.

They would be the main actors and if they are the main actors they will be contributing to the solution. Eco-citizenship for all is our main aim at all levels, national, local and grassroots.

For this we need to increase access to education first. This needs to include basic education, professional training, school education on climate change and also on sustainable development. If we do not make more time to make sure people know about those topics then that means there is a problem somewhere.

We can not teach people about how to be a citizen and then wait some years to teach them to be an eco-citizen. But if we combine both at the same time then we provide them with the information they need to be eco-citizens and can achieve this vision.

It is all about education. If people are not educated then they don’t care about what is going on in their community. But if you are able to get that information to them – they need that information to act – then we can achieve our vision.

In order to bring education to people our government needs to re-think the way they work and the way they address education. If you want to achieve this vision we need to have the means to achieve the vision and the means to educate people.

That is why training people now to be the trainers of the future, educating people now to be educators of tomorrow is one way we can also achieve this vision.

One final point is the role of families. We often neglect the role families can bring, but for us we really believe that if family members are empowered and also given the resources to educate the next generation they will be able to provide their children with the exact information they need. All of this will contribute to achieving that vision.

What would help your group move forward in its work?

We need more skills. We have the people; we all want to achieve something and we all want to work together but sometimes we lack specific skills to be able to achieve our vision. If we were able to receive external training and external capacity building for our members, I am sure we would be able to have more people we could empower.

At the same time if you have the people and the capacity but you do not have the resources it is difficult. We believe that having access to enough funding is also what we need to have more impact because the resources we have at the moment do not enable us to focus on all 10 regions of Cameroon and the 20 million people that live here.

If we had more resources to do so then our impact would be more visible and we would have more of an impact than now. Also we want to have more volunteers supporting our work. I think people who are available and committed to work with you on what you want to do is the best and most amazing resource ever.

You can have the people but if they don’t want to work with you because they do not believe in what you are doing it is not going to work.

So we think capacity building, more resources, both technical and financial and committed volunteers would all help us to achieve our vision in the best way.

The group travelled the country and used awareness raising campaigns and the media to build their movement for the ‘I Vote for Climate’ campaign (Source: AVD)

Why did you get involved with the group? What do you think young people bring to the climate debate?

I am one of the founders of the group. In December 2008 we had the idea of putting together this group because we were able to see how people in our communities didn’t care, and still don’t care many of them, about the environment.

When you meet people and see how they react on environmental issues then you see that there is a problem. When you see around you that nothing is done to address the issues that we are facing because people are not educated enough about saving and protecting our environment then you believe that you have to do something.

When you understand that you have to do something and that you can do something, you need to mobilise people. That is how I started to be aware of the role I could play in protecting my environment.

Take a very simple example to show the role of young people. Since we began we have organised two drawing competitions about environmental topics. Through these drawings we have been able to educate others.

Young people have creativity and if we can use that creativity to raise awareness it will make it more interesting and fun for people and allow them to learn while enjoying themselves.

Having access to non-formal education is something that young people do very well. It is not only about being educated, it is also about being motivated. We really understand that young people are able to do that because they like protesting, they like doing non-formal actions and they like bringing about change that is needed through their creativity.

Even in Cameroon this is something we are able to see and we want to use it as a key contribution of young people to achieve our vision of eco-citizenship all around the world.

Young people can also educate people, children can educate their families, young people their communities – they are in contact with other people and through this contact they can raise awareness. We believe this is also a key contribution young people can make.

More RTCC Youth Profiles:

Youth Profile #21: Youth turn to music as climate message falls on deaf ears

Youth Profile #20: How are Pacific Islanders coping with life at climate change ground zero?

Youth Profile #19: The new group taking the green world by storm – meet the Arab Youth Climate Movement

Youth Profile #18: The young African scientists linking modern research with indigenous wisdom

Youth Profile #17: The African youth group driving climate adaptation in rural communities

Youth Profile #16: Inspiring climate change action through education in Africa

Youth Profile #15: Canadian youth rise above dirty domestic policies and push for climate action

Youth Profile #14: Costa Rica’s youth eye a carbon neutral future

Youth Profile #13: Giving youth a platform at the European Parliament

Youth Profile #12: European activists demand governments put their futures ahead of ‘dirty industry’

Youth Profile #11: China’s young activists out to prove they do care about climate change

Youth Profile #10: Life on climate change’s frontline with the Australian Youth Climate Coalition

Youth Profile #9: Young entrepreneurs driving sustainability at US campuses

Youth Profile #8: Why education is key to developing climate awareness in Ghana

Youth Profile #7: Why Indonesia’s biodiversity is at the front line of the fight against climate change

Youth Profile #6: Meet the African coalition that brings together 54 countries to tackle climate change

Youth Profile #5: Bangladeshi youth fight to give world’s second most climate vulnerable country a voice

Youth Profile #4: Nepal’s youth fight to save Himalayan paradise from effects of pollution and climate change

Youth Profile #3: Canada’s climate coalition on taking on the Tar Sands lobby and fighting for Kyoto

Youth Profile #2: How PIDES are working on practical solutions to climate change in Mexico

Youth Profile #1: How Nigerian Climate Coalition are building green bridges ahead of COP18

The post Cameroon, art and climate awareness appeared first on Climate Home News.

New research has revealed that over 41 million people in five major Chinese cities are at high risk from climate change, underlining the challenges facing new premier Xi Jingping.

The fifth annual Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas produced by analysts Maplecroft reveals that Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Shanghai will face severe climate hazards in the coming years.

Xi Jinping was confirmed today as China’s new premier for the next decade. He will gradually take over power in the next few months, with Hu Jintao’s presidency coming to an end in March 2013.

Maplecroft says the next 10 years could see China face increasing environmental pressures. For example water stress in the country could be exacerbated as the needs of industry and agriculture compete with those of expanding populations.

This could particularly hit companies using the country as a manufacturing base, and Maplecroft warns that water intensive industries may find their ability to operate effectively in China restricted.

“As global corporations expand into the emerging growth markets, their operations and supply chains will become exposed to a complex set of climate risks that have the potential to disrupt business continuity,” said Helen Hodge, Maplecroft’s Head of Maps and Indices. “It is essential for them to identify where suppliers, assets and personnel are most at risk and plan for the long term.”

Source: Maplecroft

Climate resilience

Maplecroft’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index identifies 50 cities based on their current and future importance for global business, and rates them on the risks to populations, company operations, supply chains and investment.

Multi-national companies operating in many Asian cities could be faced with environmental risks in coming years, according to the Index

Dhaka, Manila, Bangkok, Yangon in Myanmar, Jakarta in Indonesia, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam and Kolkata in India are all rated as at ‘extreme risk’.

Maplecroft warns these seven cities will be the most at risk from changing temperatures and weather brought on by climate change.

The results are not only based on how at risk a city is from climate change but also how resilient it is. The sensitivity of populations and the poor capacity of governments to support local adaptation measures and combat the impact of climate change will also make cities more vulnerable.

New York, which was hit with Superstorm Sandy this month, continues to rank 41 of the 50 cities by the Index – rated at ‘medium risk’. This is down to its ability to adapt to such events, says Maplecroft.

The USA’s strong economy and infrastructure, coupled with extensive preparations before the storm meant the city was able to return to business-as-usual soon after it was hit. It took just two days for the New York Stock Exchange to re-open.

Cuba and Haiti, which were also hit by the storm, took much longer to recover.

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6°C has often been described as the ‘doomsday scenario’ of climate change.

Forests could burn, seas could rise and life could become a battle for survival as food and water resources steadily diminish.

Scientists are warning this could be closer to reality than previously thought. Since the industrial revolution, the world has warmed by around 0.7°C. Most scientists believe we have committed ourselves to at least the same again given current emissions

But a recent report from consultancy PwC warned current emission reduction pledges must be drastically increased to keep the world below 6°C. Some suggest an average global warming of 6°C could be seen as early as 2100.

This echoes the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) whose Chief Economist, Fatih Birol warned: “With current policies in place global temperatures are set to increase by 6°C, which has catastrophic implications.”

6°C is often described as the doomsday scenario where forests will burn and oceans will rise (Source: giumaiolini/Creative Commons)

How much do we know about 6°C?

Very little is currently known about what the world might look like 6°C warmer. Most climate models to date have focused on 2°C and 4°C rises, and even these involve some guesswork.

There are also few comparable events in the past to learn from, making it harder for scientists to predict potential changes.

So what do we know?

“There are some very basic rules,” Corinne Le Quéré, Director of the UK’s Tyndall Centre told RTCC. “Like more heatwaves… More floods and more droughts are [also] typical of a warmer climate because you have essentially more energy in the system.”

To an extent we already know how a 2°C temperature rise will affect life. Arid regions will get drier, wet ones wetter. At 6°C, scientists say all of these will still occur, but they will be more extreme.

“When you are talking about this level of warming, I think tipping points are a very serious possibility; especially if the six degrees happens very quickly,” said Le Quéré.

Such tipping points include the disintegration of the polar ice sheets, causing sea level rises and methane discharges, and the collapse of forests, one of the world’s vital carbon sinks. Once these have been passed there is little chance of turning back the clock.

In the Arctic, warming could see tree types suited to more temperate climates replace Boreal forests. If this happens rapidly it could lead to fires, diseases or pests which could drive the forests to destruction.

With any warming from 2°C to 6°C, it is expected that desertification will become a greater problem, since the movement of water between the earth and the atmosphere will be intensified and biodiversity and ecosystems will be adversely hit.

6°C average

At 6°C forest fires, pests and diseases could spread and destroy the world’s woodlands, releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere (Source: Jaako/Creative Commons)

It is important to note 6°C refers to the average temperature. This does not mean a 6°C rise in the US would also mean a 6°C rise in Africa.

Much of the land temperatures will actually be higher. Air over water warms at a slower rate than over land, so ocean temperatures are likely to be at the lower range of the scale.

The UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre has mapped this change in the 4°C world, where they estimate much of Africa could see 6°C to 7°C rises, and northern latitudes could see anything from 8°C to 14°C temperature rises.

“Normally the high latitude, Russia and Canada for instance, would warm twice as much as the global average,” said Le Quéré. “You can’t say for sure but you would be looking at 12°C of warming over and around the Arctic and surrounding countries [with a 6°C average].”

These variations would also differ throughout the year. It is usual to experience above-average hot days and the same could be expected in a 6°C world.

Take for instance the 2003 heatwave across Europe (the UK witnessed temperatures over 38°C) which caused 35,000 deaths on the continent. Those above average days in a 4°C world could be 6 to 8°C hotter than they were in 2003, warn scientists.

In Beijing or New York, this could be even more extreme, taking temperatures 8°C to 12°C higher than the hottest day in Europe in 2003.

While much of the developed world can hide away in air-conditioned offices, in the developing world working life is expected to become much more difficult.

Working outside during the summer months would be impossible, and manual workers would have to start working through the night or seasonally.

Waterworld

Higher concentrations of CO2 will mean more ocean acidification.

This is a relatively new area of research, but scientists say the pH of the oceans has already decreased by 30% since the industrial revolution (the lower the pH the more acidic a substance is). They predict the oceans could become 150% more acidic by 2100.

This could have dire consequences for life in the sea. Current studies suggest that ocean acidification causes calcium carbonate – the stuff of shells, skeletons, corals and much of the ocean’s phytoplankton – to dissolve.

This could impact the formation of coral ecosystems and disrupt ocean food webs, as the phytoplankton which forms its base is removed.

A combination of melting ice caps and the expansion of oceans as they warm will also mean a hotter planet could also experience sea level rises.

How high the seas could rise involves a significant amount of guess work, but Le Quéré is more certain on what this could mean.

Warming waters and ocean acidification could both break down coral ecosystems, which one billion people currently rely on for their food and livelihoods (Source: Prilfish/Creative Commons)

“It is very very difficult to adapt to high levels of sea level rise. Above a metre it becomes really difficult,” she said. “Even in richer countries. We have seen what happened in New York last week – where you had storm surges of 11 to 12 feet (three metres) and if the sea level is a metre higher than that you would easily get half of your infrastructure flooded.”

One recent study predicted sea levels could rise by one metre by the year 3000, although other studies have predicted a much more rapid rise in levels.

And with drier conditions on land, rising sea levels and a potential wasteland in the oceans, life on Earth will be harder for its inhabitants.

Life on Mars

The world population is expected to hit nine billion by 2050, and worsening climate change will make feeding this population much more difficult as the land on which to grow food shrinks.

Today the world already has one billion people going hungry, while another two billion are what is termed the ‘hidden hungry’ where they do not have the right balance of nutrients.

Water will also become scarcer – with consequences both for agricultural systems and daily life for many communities.

“It become more problematic,” said Le Quéré. “A warmer climate means that the water cycle is intensified. You get more rainfall and you get more evaporation – everything goes a bit faster.

“So if you live in a dry area, it is likely that it will get drier. So in drier areas you have less water access. A lot of places live on one river, like the Nile River Basin. If you are reliant on a particular storage to have your fresh water availability then when that runs out it simply runs out.”

Le Quéré said that these impacts will disproportionately affect the poor, who have less resources to help them adapt, and are often much more reliant on the natural world.

An apocalypse?

There is one episode in history which shows what 6°C may look like, but this takes us back 251 million years ago to the end of what is called the Permian era.

Here, a 6°C rise in temperatures resulted in the extinction of 95% of the planet’s species, and is considered the worst event ever endured by life on Earth.

Sea-levels are said to have risen 20 metres, and flash floods engulfed many coasts. Only one large land animal species was left alive and it took 100 million years for the variety of the planet’s species to return to normal level.

How the planet will react to such a warming, and how far people can adapt is still widely debated amongst circles of scientists, analysts and environmentalists alike.

“If you add all these things together, then it becomes really difficult to maintain our current level of wealth and our capacity to provide food for the citizens,” said Le Quéré.

One thing is widely agreed on; life in a world that has warmed by 6°C will be tough for all living organisms on the planet.

Related Articles:

Next UN climate science report will “scare the wits out of everyone”

World headed for 6°C of warming, says new study

World’s coral reefs at risk from warming waters

The post Planet 6°C: Will climate change turn Planet Earth into Mars? appeared first on Climate Home News.

Ahead of the UN climate summit, in Doha, researchers have warned that mitigating the impacts of agriculture on the atmosphere and adapting to the effects of climate change on food systems will be equally crucial to feed a growing population.

Feeding the world produces up to 17,000 megatonnes of carbon dioxide annually, according to new analysis from the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

This accounts for 19-29% of global emissions, around 80% of which comes from agriculture, with the rest from pre-production and post-production activities such as processing, packaging, refrigeration, transportation and waste disposal.

CGIAR stresses that there are still many uncertainties regarding the impacts of the food system on climate change.

But while the ‘footprint’ of global food systems must be reduced, a companion brief from CGIAR outlines how climate change is not only impacted by food production but how climate change may affect which crops can be grown where.

New research warns climate change could impact the relationship we have with food in the future, as what can be grown where changes.

“Climate change mitigation and adaptation are critical priorities,” said Bruce Campbell, CCAFS’s programme director. “Farmers around the world, especially smallholder farmers in developing countries, need access to the latest science, more resources and advanced technology.

“This research serves as an urgent call for negotiators at the upcoming UNFCCC [summit] in Doha.”

Last year, the world population hit seven billion and is expected to rise to nine billion by 2050.

One billion people continue to go hungry globally, while another two billion suffer from ‘hidden hunger’ where they do not get the nutrients they need for a healthy diet.

Feeding a growing world

By 2050, according to the research, climate change could cause irrigated wheat yields in developing countries to fall by 13% and irrigated rice production in the same countries could fall 15%.

In Africa maize yields could fall 10-20% as they become unsuited to rising temperatures.

Additional calorie and protein sources could also suffer as feeding livestock with maize and grain becomes more expensive, reducing the ability for farmers to rear meat sources.

Related articles:

Fighting climate change with smart agriculture

UNEP: Eight steps to feed a growing world

Biofuels: who wins in the fuel v food debate?

The availability of fish will also be impacted because of rising temperature levels and ocean acidification.

While there are some crops – cassava, yams, barley, cow-pea  millet and lentils – that could fill in the gaps, this would mean the time consuming and costly process of breeding new plant varieties, says CGIAR.

It says that the culture of food consumption will have to adapt as different crops are used to compensate for new growing conditions.

“So far, the climate change discussion has focused on the need to reduce emissions and sustainably boost crop yields, but it is crucial also to include food safety in our foresight and planning,” said Sonja Vermeulen, head of research at CCAFS.

Recommendations

CGIAR suggests several steps to securing the food system in a world of advancing climate change:

– Financing initiatives to ensure food systems become more resilient to weather variability and climate shocks.

– Reshape consumption patterns to ensure nutritional needs are met and promote sustainable and healthy eating patterns.

– Raise global investment in sustainable agriculture over the next decade.

– Develop specific programmes to aid populations and sectors most vulnerable to climate change and food security.

– Establish robust emergency food reserves.

The post Mitigation and adaptation critical to guaranteeing food security appeared first on Climate Home News.

The US insurance industry racked up losses of $34bn during 2011, according to a new report.

The Ceres sustainable investment coalition said the losses are the largest in a single year since 2005.

Extreme weather triggered widescale drought, wildfires and tornadoes in the West and Central States while the East coast was battered by storms and flooding.

Click to enlarge. (Source: Ceres)

The report outlines evidence linking climate change to the extreme weather and makes suggestions on how the industry could buffer itself against the increasing risks.

“Insurance is the first line of defence against extreme weather losses, but climate change is a game-changer for the models that insurers have long relied on,” said Washington State Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler, who contributed to the report. “Companies will need to adapt if insurance is to remain available and affordable.”

“Just as the insurance industry asserted leadership to minimize building fire and earthquake risks in the 20th century, the industry has a huge opportunity today to lead in tackling climate change risks,” said Mindy Lubber, president of Ceres.

US droughts this summer have driven up food prices while extreme weather has also caused hundreds of deaths.

Related articles:

Scientists link British winter heat & Texas drought of 2011 to climate change – but not Thailand floods

Deloitte climate expert says business must wake up to extreme weather threats

Analysis: Drought-hit Middle East ripe for conflict

The post Extreme weather cost US insurers $34bn in 2011 appeared first on Climate Home News.

– The day’s top climate change stories as chosen by RTCC
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– Updated from 0830-1700 BST (GMT+1)

Latest news: Thursday 20 September

Last updated: 1700 BST

US: The worst drought to hit the United States in a half century expanded in the upper Midwest and northern Plains states in the past week due to warmer and drier than normal weather, but loosened its grip on some central and southern areas of the country. (Reuters)

Oceans: An ambitious plan to link marine parks across a vast amount of the ocean is coming together, according to conservationists. (Phys.org)

IUCN: Protecting mangroves and replanting them is cheaper than building man-made structures to protect coastlines threatened by climate change, the head of the IUCN has said. Julia Marton-Lefevre said that preserving mangrove forests helps regulate rainfall, reduce the risk of disasters from extreme weather and sea-level rise, provide breeding grounds for fish and captures carbon dioxide. (Christian Science Monitor)

UK: Britain needs a more ambitious programme for encouraging the uptake of low-carbon vehicles, as sales of the cars have been disappointing, the Transport Select Committee of MPs have warned. (Reuters)

Fiji: Villagers from Vunidogoloa on Vanua Levu, Fiji’s second largest island have become the country’s first climate change refugees as rising sea levels, flooding and soil erosion have forced them to relocate to higher and drier land. (Salon.com)

UK: The government is to look into incentives for local communities with windfarms, including discounted electricity bills or grants for facilities such as playgrounds. The consultation will also look at how local businesses could become involved in the supply chain and how developers can best consult local people. (Guardian)

UK: Smart meters could save the UK £14 billion by 2030, according to a new report. The British Gas backed study also found SMEs could save between 4 and 5% on their energy bills with the introduction of the meters. Current government plans aim to replace 53 billion meters in homes and businesses by 2019 to give customers more accurate bills and help them reduce consumption. (BusinessGreen)

Worldwide: Climate change is expected to threaten everything from Arctic foxes to coffee plantations, experts have warned. Speaking at the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, scientists said coral reefs and the Arctic region are some of the most vulnerable habitats to global warming and that even a moderate rise in temperatures could damage plants and animals in some regions. (Reuters)

Arctic: Sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to its lowest seasonal minimum since satellite records began, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and NASA.

Worldwide: EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard has said people must get used to extreme weather as climate change is making such events the norm. She said once one-off extreme events will soon no longer be seen as extreme as heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildfires become the new reality. (Guardian)

Arctic: A UK committee of MPs have called for a halt on oil and gas drilling in the Arctic until safety is improved. The Environmental Audit Committee said the current techniques for dealing with any spill do not inspire confidence and voiced fears that a spill could cause unprecedented environmental damage. (BBC)

EU: An EU meeting yesterday came no closer to solving the issue of oversupply of carbon credits in its emissions trading scheme. The UK wants to see credits cancelled permanently to boost the low carbon price, some want permits withheld while Poland and Slovakia are against any action to drive up the cost of emitting due to their coal-heavy economies.

The post Climate Live: UK MPs call for halt in Arctic oil and gas drilling as sea ice shrink to lowest levels appeared first on Climate Home News.

The combination of climate change and an expanding biofuels market are combining to hit food production at a time of ever increasing demand, according to new reports.

NGO Oxfam have warned that one or more extreme climatic events in a single year could bring about price spikes comparable to two decades of inflationary increases.

Analysts expect food prices to rise by 5% in 2013 as a result of this year’s catastrophic drought in the USA. Over 50% of the country suffered severe water shortages this year, hitting the production of wheat, corn and soya.

Meanwhile the head of the world’s largest food producer Nestle has repeated his claim that subsidies for biofuels in the USA and EU are distorting the global food market by using land and water that would otherwise be used for grazing animals or growing edible crops.

The EU currently has a target to source 10% of its transport fuels by renewable energy sources by 2020. ActionAid predict 88% of this target will come from biofuels and that it will need 13-19 hectares of land overseas to meet it.

“We say no food for fuel,”  Nestle Chief Executive Paul Bulcke said. “Agricultural food-based biofuel is an aberration”.

“[Using biofuels] was well-introduced at the time, but when you have better information then you have to be coherent,” he added. “You have to know when to day: ‘Stop here’. Now we see, too, that the carbon [reduction] element of biofuels is not as clear as it was intended to be.”

Expensive meal

Oxfam’s latest report suggests extreme weather events – made more likely by climate change – could bring about price spikes , particularly for people in the developing world, who already spend as much as 75% of their income on food.

Research already suggests that food prices could have doubled by 2030 based on 2010 trends – half of which is expected to be down to climate change.

Prices of maize could rise by 177% by 2030, wheat by 120% and process rice by 107%.

Short-term price surges could have significantly worse impacts for vulnerable people, allowing less time to adjust to shocks, but the really impact will be from a combination of both long and short term impacts.

It calls for more investment in small scale, sustainable and resilient farming in developing countries, scaling-up community based disaster preparedness and scaling-up nationally and regionally coordinated food reserves.

Following this year’s drought in the US, UN agencies called on governments around the world to adopt national drought response policies as a matter of urgency.

Related Articles

UN agencies call for global response to drought

One year on: Building resilience in the Horn of Africa

The post Climate change and biofuels blamed for rising food prices appeared first on Climate Home News.

South Asia’s emerging economies have the highest financial risk from natural hazards, such as flooding and tropical cyclones, according to risk analysts Maplecroft.

Their Natural Hazards Risk Atlas suggests Bangladesh, the Philippines, Myanmar, India and Vietnam are among 10 countries with the greatest share of their economic activity exposed to such hazards.

They say this is due to high exposure of cities and trading hubs to natural disasters, coupled with their poor capability to recover from events such as flooding and tropical cyclones.

Japan, USA, China, Taiwan and Mexico were identified as having the highest risk in absolute terms, but Maplecroft say these countries have the capacity to recover quickly to natural disasters due to their economic strength, strong governance, building regulations and disaster preparedness.

The warning comes a month after a team of scientists from the UK’s Met Office and the USA’s National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration became the latest scientists to find climate change to be increasing the chance of extreme weather events.

Report finds some of South Asia's key economies to be most at risk financially from natural disasters (Source: Maplecroft/Asia Natural Hazards Risk - Economic Exposure 2012)

Maplecroft also warned these events could exacerbate social unrest, food security, corruption and ultimately could lead to political risk.

“High exposure to natural hazards in these countries are compounded by a lack of resilience to combat the effects of a disaster should one emerge,” said Helen Hodge, Head of Maps and Indices at Maplecroft.

“Given the exposure of key financial and manufacturing centres, the occurrence of a major event would be likely to have significant impacts on the total economic output of these countries, as well as foreign business.”

Resilience

It could take years for countries such as Bangladesh and the Philippines to bounce back from disasters, say the analysts.

The Philippines’ resilience is being tested this week as severe floods affecting the northern island of Luzon, including the capital Manila have affected nearly two million people.

Similar floods in in Thailand wiped out 9% of the country’s GDP, and a year on much of the infrastructure has still not been repaired. In contrast Japan, a year after the fourth largest earthquake ever recorded, the economy has returned to the economic output levels and growth forecasts seen prior to the event.

Related Articles

Scientists link British winter heat & Texas drought of 2011 to climate change – but not Thailand floods

Photo Gallery – 10 cities at risk from Climate Change

Emerging economies most vulnerable to climate change

Video: Lead Bangladesh negotiator Quamrul Chowdhury talks to RTCC at the Bonn Climate Talks about the importance of equity for a vulnerable country such as Bangladesh…

The post New report reveals Bangladesh, the Philippines, Myanmar, India and Vietnam at acute risk from climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

Billions around the world take mobile phone use for granted.

Over the past 15 years they have become part of the fabric of life – vital for work and play.

But for many UK customers of telecommunications multinational O2 that precious lump of metal and plastic ceased to work this week – the signal went dead and their connection to the outside world was lost.

We don’t yet know what caused the outage – although the BBC’s Rory Cellan-Jones has a pretty good stab here. But along with the millions of individual consumers and small business who rely on O2, we do know larger companies like Lloyds TSB, Halifax and London’s hire-cycle scheme were hit badly.

Perhaps banks are not especially worthy of sympathy these days – but if it meant you couldn’t pay your rent and were kicked out of your house – which one family reportedly were when Nat West’s system collapsed in June – then you’d feel pretty sore.

In more remote parts of the world a phone can be the difference between life and death, offering villagers access to doctors and farmers expert advice on techniques to boost their crop yields. This reliance will keep on growing as phone networks continue to penetrate the developing world.

Over-reliant, under-resilient

As our dependence on technology becomes ever greater – so should questions over the quality of infrastructure and backups that are put in place.

Resilience is often defined as ‘the ability of an entity or system to maintain function when shocked’. It is clear that neither O2 or NatWest passed this particular resilience test, although they both argue they were not shocked into paralysis.

But the knock-on effects of these outages in a world that relies heavily on Information, Communication & Technology (ICT) services run into billions, affecting lives and a state’s prosperity.

A 2011 report from the UK’s Department of Environment highlighted how vital and vulnerable this sector is in the UK.

It revealed that the provision of energy, ICT, transport, waste and water were all absolutely dependent on the supply of ICT and energy. It goes on: “As the impacts of climate change are increasingly felt, interdependencies and their vulnerabilities will become more evident. This may lead to service disruption becoming more likely.

“Combined with a lower understanding and/or lack of co-ordination between infrastructure operators and others, it can undermine the ability to adapt national infrastructure successfully.”

There is no suggestion whatsoever that the problems faced by O2, Nat West or Blackberry last October are anything to do with the weather or climate change.

But there is increasing evidence of the effects of extreme weather on ICT. Take the torrential rain, winds and massive power outages that hit Washington DC at the end of June.

Forbes reports this caused Amazon, Instagram, Pinterest and Netflix to disappear for a few hours – hardly Armageddon but enough to raise concerns over their resilience.

As Mike Barton from the blog WiredCloud wrote at the time: “It’s important to remember that power outages — like massive snowstorms and hurricanes — happen, so smart cloud adopters should take this as a lesson to spread workloads across data centre locations.”

Deloitte’s Nick Main advises major companies on their climate change strategies – and warned RTCC in a previous interview that not enough preparation was being done across all business to build resilience.

“You might think – what would I have to think about in terms of climate change running an office in London….? Well – we’re probably a bit above the Thames here – but not much. We probably rely on the tube system, which is below the Thames,” he said.

“So if you started to get more and significant flooding – the Thames flood barrier can only deal I think with 60 tidal surges a year, and it operates significantly above its original design expectations – so maybe we have to think about what would happen in a flood in London? How would we deal with it from a business perspective?

“When you start doing business resilience, which might be a 10-20 year plan, you need to start thinking about those things now.”

Again – there is no evidence that O2’s outage has anything to do with the weather or climate.

But it has demonstrated how reliant we all are on the ICT sector, and that it is in all our interests to ensure that those companies are not just focused on delivering us next year’s Apple handset, but also a communications network that can adapt to changing times and conditions over the decades to come.

The post O2 and Amazon outages timely reminders that climate resilient ICT sector is vital for future prosperity appeared first on Climate Home News.

1) Bluewash

Is the green movement turning blue? (Source 350.org)

The colour green and the environmental movement have been together for as long as I can remember.

But is the tide changing?

While some traditional environmental groups – Greenpeace and Green Parties across the world – will always stay loyal to the colour of the grass, there is a growing trend of companies and organisations abandoning ship for blue.

2) Money may talk – but when it comes to climate finance many countries don’t

This week saw a workshop in Bonn to discuss options for climate finance ahead of the Doha conference in November.

A myriad of topics were discussed – aviation and maritime contributions,  a financial transaction tax to where the money should go and what it should be used for.

One worrying trend did emerge at the discussions as stories of miscommunication, idling donations and lack of attribution of finance were echoed between countries including Columbia, Ghana and the US.

Tracking, verifying and monitoring the movement of money will be key in the coming years.

3) Community Energy could supply 3.5GW to the UK

Westmill Wind Farm is one of the UK's largest 100% community owned wind farms (Source: Jeff Kubina/Creative Commons)

Community energy projects have a huge potential in the UK, if the right frameworks are set up for it.

Rebecca Willis, a researcher on environment and sustainability said Cooperative UK predict that it could be as big as 3.5GW worth of generation – almost the same amount as the UK’s largest coal-fired power station Drax which delivers energy to over 3 million homes.

The panel at the event said the UK should learn from the US. They pointed out that 12% of the energy market in the US is community owned, boasting 42 million shareholders in alternative energy schemes.

4) Scientists are a step closely to linking climate and extreme weather

New research this week from the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre and the US’s National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration moved a step closer to directly linking extreme weather events and man-made climate change.

Plants can be seeded into old carpet fibers - that can then be attached to a new design of green roofing

The study reviewed extreme weather in 2001 –  a year marked by floods in Thailand, droughts in Texas and East Africa, wildfires in Australia and a warm winter in Britain.

The Thai floods appear to be down to poor planning – but the Texas drought and balmy UK winter were linked to man-man climate change.

5) You can grow plants in carpet

Carpet can be used as a growing material for plants and would make a great choice for green roofs designed for pitched housing, according to one sustainable designer of the future.

James Ward believes that this design could not only solve the problem of carpets ending up in landfill but could also help take green (or beige) roofs to the mass market.

The post July 9-13: Five things we’ve learnt about climate change and the green movement this week appeared first on Climate Home News.

– The day’s top climate change stories as chosen by RTCC
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– Updated at 0900, 1300, 1700 BST (GMT+1)

Monday 9 July

Last updated: 1830 BST

Bonn Updates

The UN climate change agency is hosting its first workshop on long-term finance this week. The interactive event kicks-off today, you can take part through various channels including the UNFCCC website.

The so-called Robin Hood tax on financial transactions is likely to rear its head. Last week a separate UN agency suggested that idea combined with carbon taxes and a 1% tax on billionaires, could raise $400bn a year. The focus today is on the developing world. We’ll bring you breaking news from the event below.

Latest news

A UK survey has found that only 5% of people oppose renewable energy and a whopping 83% back solar energy. The study, commissioned by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, comes at a time when the UK is reviewing the extent of its support for competing renewable technologies.

The US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced it was the warmest January-June period for the lower 48 states since records began.

Plans that could see a series of marine nature reserves created off the UK coast of Plymouth and South East Cornwall will be rolled out from next summer, Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman has confirmed.

Jane Lubchenco, head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has also told Associated Press that scientists have been caught off-guard by the speed at which ocean acid levels have risen. She says this is now one of the biggest threats to coral reefs and called it the ‘evil twin’ of climate change.

BONN UPDATE: A former Indian climate change negotiator, Surya Sethi, tells delegates in Bonn that we “must be mad or smoking something” if we are going to entrust climate finance to the banking sector. “They failed to supply mortgages stably and now we see they fix the Libor rate with a brief email exchange,” said Sethi.

BONN UPDATE: Jeffrey Sachs, Advisor to Ban Ki Moon and Director of the Earth Institute tells attending delegates “We need a long-term predictable price on every ton of CO2 somewhere between 30 & 50 USD”

BONN UPDATE: Ulric Trotz from the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre reminded the audience at the Long Term Finance of the potential costs of doing nothing. He listed off the costs of 1m of sea level rise for the Caribbean: $30bn in lost GDP, $70bn in lost land and $4.64bn to relocate 100,000 people.

The Pentagon says it is pushing ahead with a $420 million effort to build refineries for biofuels which could help make the fuel cost competitive. The news follows attempts by Congress to block the investment after anger over the price the Navy paid for alternative fuel tests.

Increasingly common experience with extreme weather events in the US- such as the Colorado wildfires, a record warm spring and preseason hurricanes – has convinced many Americans that climate change is a reality, said the head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jane Lubchenco.

Ministers in the UK will today call on independent bodies – including the Environment Agency and the Office of Nuclear Regulation – to increase their efforts to explain the risk of building new nuclear plants. They say people have been left confused about the impact of Japan’s Fukushima disaster.

Top tweets

One to watch for today… Could Sellafield in the UK be getting a new nuclear reactor running off nuclear waste?

Expecting major announcement today on GE’s PRISM nuclear waste recycling reactor – proposed for Sellafield. More later, incl. interview.

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 9, 2012

@CFigueres: “Not one single source if going to be appropriate or sufficient and we have to reach out to a broad array of sources” #LTFchat — UNFCCC (@UN_ClimateTalks) July 9, 2012

@JeffDSachs People are terrified by what is happening to climate. If politicians lead, will find that public already ahead of them#LTFchat — UNFCCC (@UN_ClimateTalks) July 9, 2012

#LTFchat what is to prevent ‘I’m all right jack’ attitude in developed countries towards developing counties- Ulric Trotz, CCCC — Meera Ghani (@MeeraGhani) July 9, 2012

The big question

Is the environment movement turning its back on the colour green in favour of a more neutral blue?

Photo of the day

@350orbust1 uses this striking image from Occupy Educated to make the argument for renewable energy over fossil fuels…

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In the Netherlands, if the dykes broke, the floods would extend far into Europe.

The Dutch coastal defence system will protect the country against rising sea-levels.

The system is a good example of coastal management that also translates into early, proactive action on adaptation, which significantly increases the potential of managing climate change impacts.

Increasingly, such adaptation technologies will have to be transferred to developing countries, given that these nations have limited resources to adapt, but will be hit the hardest by climate change impacts.

The Rio Conventions Calendar is published annually by Entico in partnership with the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

The post Photo of the week #18 – Defending the coastlines appeared first on Climate Home News.

The new app aims to give the user the bigger picture on climate (© eLoomn)

Whisper is quietly – but weather forecasting is all the rage these days.

Whether it is UK scientists heading off into storms to collect vital data in predicting storms and floods, or Prince Charles presenting a bulletin  for the BBC, it is becoming increasingly popular as people experience more unusual events.

And now a new App is getting in on the action – offering users real-time updates on extreme weather events around the world. These include hurricanes, cyclones, flooding as well as volcanic eruptions and dust storms.

The creators of xWeather say they hope to give users the bigger picture when it comes to climate and extreme weather.

“We want to help people see and explore what’s happening in the world that they’re not hearing about,” said Dr. Rich Walker, co-creator of the App.

“The world is increasingly interconnected. The impacts of extreme weather events that cause social, economic and environmental upheavals in one community or country are quickly felt in another, and another.”

Users can track regions or individual weather events as well as their local conditions (© eLoomn)

In 2010-2011 extreme weather in Asia impacted the lives of over 42 million people. Floods in Thailand last year alone cost more than $15 billion.

In the US around 80% of the population have been impacted by extreme weather at least once over the past three years.

Around the world more and more people are being impacted by extreme weather and the ability to reliably predict changing conditions can have huge benefits for countries the world over.

For the scientists working in the South West of England this involves conducting research flights directly into the centre of storms.

It comes as the UK is experiencing weeks of intensive rainfall and once again braces itself for flooding and the scientists aim to more accurately track when rain falls and why.

Not just for fun

And for farmers, particularly in the developing world whose crop production is reliant of predictable weather conditions and under threat from climate variability being able to understand and weather is vital.

The new App is avaliable for the iPhone and the iPad (© eLoomn)

Writing for RTCC, Clyde Fraisse and Norman Breuer from the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research explained why such forecasts could help farmers they work with in Paraguay to protect their crops.

“Seasonal climate variability is a major cause of production risks faced by farmers,” they said.

“Basic research has improved understanding of major systems that influence climate variability, including the El Nino phenomenon, which is the main driver of climate variability in the southern cone of South America.

“Farmers are very interested in understanding the effects of climate variability on their crop yields,” they added. “They were equally enthusiastic about the possibility of co-developing a decision support system available on the Internet to help them make better decisions about farm management.”

With the latest App from eLoomn users are able to get a bird’s eye perspective on extreme weather across the world, focus on specific regions or on specific events, using NASA satellite images.

They can also search their own neighbourhood to see the direct effects to their lives from extreme weather.

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