The dire outlook for Argentina’s renowned higher education system under President Javier Milei, a right-wing populist, was highlighted on April 22 – Earth Day – by Argentine plant ecologist Pedro Jaureguiberry, who was announced as a finalist in the prestigious Frontiers Planet Prize.

​“The current budget for universities in 2024 is insufficient, adding to the fact that in recent years we have only received 20% of the budget we asked for conducting research at our lab,” Jaureguiberry,  an assistant researcher with the Multidisciplinary Institute of Plant Biology at the National University of Córdoba (UNC), told Climate Home.

The 44-year-old scientist, who has spent his entire academic career in Argentina, was shortlisted for the award as one of 23 national champions drawn from science research teams across six continents, in recognition of a study he led on the drivers of human-caused biodiversity loss.

Dr Jaureguiberry conducting fieldwork in central western Argentina. (Photo: Diego Gurvich)

Of the finalists, three international winners will be announced in June in Switzerland, receiving prize money of $1.1 million each for their role in groundbreaking scientific research.

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With annual inflation running close to 300%, this year’s freeze on Argentina’s government budget for universities and scientific research amounts to a spending cut in real terms of around 80%, according to the University of Buenos Aires, which this month declared itself in an “economic emergency”.

On Tuesday, university teaching staff and students, backed by trade unions, will march in Buenos Aires and other cities “in defence of public education”, which they say faces a grave threat from the budget squeeze.

Met office hit by layoffs

Argentine meteorologist Carolina Vera, former vice-chair of a key working group responsible for the latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that in four decades of teaching and research she had never seen “such a level of dismantling through the reduction of research grants and programs with such disdain for knowledge”.

“This is very serious for atmospheric and ocean sciences, key to issues such as climate change, placing a whole new generation of meteorologists and climatologists in danger,” she told Climate Home from Trevelin, in the southern province of Chubut.

There has been widespread condemnation of 86 layoffs affecting administrative and other contractors at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), while Vera added that she is concerned about the situation at the National Meteorological Service, where 73 technicians have been let go. That, she warned, would affect the functionality of early warning and disaster prevention systems.

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Climatic and meteorological challenges are increasing in Argentina, from heavy rains due to the El Niño weather phenomenon – which has caused an ongoing dengue epidemic – to extreme heat and wildfires.

A significant drought is forecast for the southern hemisphere summer of 2024-2025, from November to February, as El Niño gives way to an expected La Niña, with the National Meteorological Service having a key role to play in predicting conditions and disseminating information about them ahead of time.

Vera added that the budget restrictions on CONICET would also limit its research capabilities, particularly relating to climate change. “​We hope that this will be reversed soon,” she added.

Greenlight for extractive industries

Milei has branded climate change a “socialist lie” since 2021 and has also questioned public education for “brainwashing people” with Marxist ideology.

Sergio Federovisky, deputy minister of environment during the previous presidency of Alberto Fernández, said Milei is not only disdainful of scientific views on global warming but also on broader environmental protection. For example, Milei – a former university professor and television pundit – said during his presidential campaign that “a company can pollute a river all it wants”.

“Climate denialism is not a scientific position, but rather an argument used to release all types of extractive actions that could be hindered by an environmental policy on the use of natural resources and the concentration of wealth,” Federovisky told Climate Home from Buenos Aires.

Meeting between Argentine President Javier Milei and Elon Musk in Texas, United States, at the Tesla factory on April 12 2024, forging a partnership through which the government is betting on attracting investment to Argentina. (Photo: Prensa Casa Rosada via / Latin America News Agency / Reuters)

In an economic review published on February 1, which unlocked $4.7 billion to support the new government’s policies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed its support for investment to increase the exploitation of oil and gas reserves and metals mining in Argentina, in order to boost exports and government revenues.

World Bank head Ajay Banga told journalists before last week’s Spring Meetings that the Argentine economy is going through a “whole economic realignment”. The bank “is supportive of the direction of that economy” and looks forward “to working closely with their leadership to help them as they go forward”, he added.

Yet he also noted that the bank’s latest review of economic prospects for the region highlighted challenges, including the impacts of Argentina’s correction, with regional GDP projected to expand by 1.6 percent in 2024, one of the lowest rates in the world and insufficient to drive prosperity.

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The IMF’s support for Milei’s neoliberal economic policies has been strongly criticised by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), which said on Friday that fiscal austerity “is not the answer when people’s lives and their democratic rights are at stake”.

“The IMF is celebrating the budget surplus in Argentina, but it’s indefensible to ignore the human cost of this economic shock therapy,” the ITUC’s General Secretary Luc Triangle said in a statement.

“Pensions have been slashed, thousands of public sector workers fired, public services are on the verge of collapse, unemployment is growing and food poverty spreading.”

Last week the government attempted to head off Tuesday’s protest by announcing a last-minute budget increase for maintenance costs for universities. But that was rejected by a national council of rectors and has not deterred the movement against the austerity measures, with large numbers set to come out onto the streets as planned.

(Reporting by Julián Reingold; editing by Megan Rowling)

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Milei, who has called climate change a “socialist lie”, has tried to ease restrictions on mining near glaciers and remove protections for forests.

But the moves have sparked protests, petitions and open letters. Milei has been forced to withdraw the wider free market reform bill that they are contained in, as it became clear he lacked the votes in Argentina’s lower house to pass it in its entirety.

Although he was elected president in November with 56% of the vote, Milei’s party holds less than a fifth of the seats in the lower house and less than a tenth in the Senate, making passing legislation a big challenge and reliant on a large block of independents.

Milei has yet to outline the next step for the reform bill. The government could choose to resubmit the law for another vote in parliament, incorporate aspects of it into an executive degree or put it to a referendum of the people.

Red tape cuts

After decades of mainly left-wing rule, Milei was elected on a promise to drastically cut government spending, tackle rampant inflation and boost economic growth.

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Lucas Ruiz, a glaciologist at Argentine government scientific agency Conicet told Climate Home that Milei’s environmental agenda was “about relaxing regulations or reducing the area under protection with the argument that they go against economic development”.

Enrique Viale, who heads the Argentine association of environmental lawyers said that Milei “is part of an international trend that views environmentalism as an enemy”. Milei has praised former far-right presidents Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Donald Trump in the USA.

Although he committed Argentina to staying in the Paris climate agreement and keeping its net zero by 2050 target, Milei quickly abolished the environment ministry and proposed a huge and radical reform bill.

The bill contains hundreds of items pushing his agenda in a broad range of industries, from tourism and wine to mining and farming. But the two items which most angered environmentalists were easing restrictions on economic activities in glacial areas and forests.

While some items in the bill received support from legislators, these two were more controversial after scientists and environmental associations widely rejected them.

Forests and glaciers

One item would allow provincial governments to authorise deforestation in areas where it is currently banned. It would also cut the budget for tackling illegal deforestation and forest fires.

Greenpeace estimates that, with this change, about four-fifths of the country’s forests would have been left without any legal protection.

Greenpeace forest campaigner Hernán Giardini called it a “serious setback in terms of environmental regression”, which would lead to an “uncontrolled increase” in forest destruction.

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Milei also proposed to change the legal definition of glaciers so that smaller glaciers, and those not previously accounted for in an offical log, aren’t counted. This means they would not be legally protected from the gold, silver and copper miners that have been eyeing up deposits in the Andes.

Giardini said the idea that you could mine on the fringes of glaciers without damaging the glaciers themselves as like “removing the door from the refrigerator and expecting the freezer not to defrost”.

The Perito Moreno glacier in Los Glaciares National Park (Photos: Amanderson2)

Argentina has almost 17,000 glaciers, spanning an area bigger than Palestine. They provide drinking water to cities and help Argentina adapt to climate change.

Glaciologist Ruiz said they help mitigate the effects of drought by providing water. “The greatest risk we now face [with mining] is contamination of the very areas where many rivers originate”.

The fate of these measures and the reform bill is uncertain. But Giardini warns that their passing would be “a shameful setback”.

The laws the reforms would water down “took many years of work”, he said, and wrecking them “would mean throwing away many years worth of effort”.

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The Vaca Muerta Sur terminal could bring a surge in Argentina’s oil and gas exports, unlocking the Vaca Muerta field, which holds the world’s second-largest shale gas reserves and the fourth-largest shale oil reserve.

The terminal’s construction site in the San Matías gulf is a hotspot for marine biodiversity and a popular site for whale-watching.

Relevant authorities in Río Negro province support the project, citing economic benefits. They are holding public hearings to approve the terminal’s environmental studies.

Campaigners held demonstrations against the project, accusing the authorities of a lack of transparency and shutting down critics.

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According to the Argentine Institute of Oil and Gas (IAPG), Vaca Muerta could produce three times more oil and gas than it does today. It is limited mostly by a lack of infrastructure and investments. The Vaca Muerta Sur terminal is a key piece of infrastructure to unlock the field’s potential.

The coalition of climate NGOs Global Gas and Oil Network called Vaca Muerta a “carbon bomb”, citing its potential to release up to 50 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere across its lifetime.

The EU, in particular, has shown interest in the Argentina’s gas supplies. In July, the bloc signed an agreement with the country to work on a “stable delivery” of gas from Vaca Muerta to Europe. Brazil has also contributed funds to unlock Vaca Muerta’s exports.

Push from local government

The export terminal is a key piece of YPF’s plan to develop the Vaca Muerta field, which has received overwhelming support across political factions. Regional decision-makers in particular have been instrumental to advance the project.

Provincial regulations have prohibited hydrocarbon projects in the San Matías gulf since the 90s, but in 2022 regulators reversed the provincial legislation to allow YPF to develop the terminal.

Last week, the Sierra Grande municipality held public hearings where YPF presented environmental impact studies for the terminal and the associated 570 km pipeline. 

Cristian Fernandez, from the legal department at the Argentine Foundation of Natural Resources (FARN), criticised the environmental studies submitted by YPF. He said there is no contingency plan for pipeline leaks and oil spills.

Protesters on the coast of Río Negro during the Second Plurinational Encounter, which took place in March 2023. (Photo: Carolina Blumenkranc)

But local authorities defended the project, and claimed to have risks under control. Sierra Grande’s mayor, Renzo Tamburini, said the project would help develop the region.

Dina Migani, Secretary of the Environment and Climate Change of Río Negro province, also voiced her support for the project and played down concerns, despite the project’s proximity to whale transit routes.

“In the survey of the entire trace there are no indigenous lands, and the oil monobuoy is 7km away, near the route where the right whales (Eubalaena australis) transit, as happens in Chubut below Puerto Madryn,” Migani told Climate Home.

Shutting down opposition

Fabricio DiGiacomo, a resident in the neighbouring Las Grutas community registered at the public hearing, voiced his opposition to the project, but was not allowed to enter the session. 

“Vaca Muerta has had, on average, about five (oil-spilling) accidents per day since it began its operations, so I do not see how they are capable of defending it”, added DiGiacomo, who rejected the public audience for being “fraudulent”.

The Argentine Association of Environmental Lawyers said in a statement they would submit a legal challenge to the process, which they claimed lacked open access to information and left opposers out of the hearings in an “unjustified” way.

They also claimed that, during the hearings, demonstrators received threats and intimidation from police and supporters of the project.

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Pablo Lada, a local activist from the neighbouring province of Chubut, says that other nearby communities were left out of the conversation on the San Matías gulf, San José gulf and Golfo Nuevo — which all encompass the Valdés Peninsula, a World Heritage Site.

Dina Migani, from Río Negro’s provincial Ministry of the Environment defended the process and said registrations were open to all residents of Sierra Grande.

Fragile site for biodiversity

The Vaca Muerta Sur terminal is meant to connect the Vaca Muerta shale fields through a 570 km pipeline to the sea. This would allow for Argentina to enter the international market as a major oil and gas exporter.

But the export terminal needed for this to happen is located in a fragile site for biodiversity, according to experts. 

Marine species such as right whales, dolphins and killer whales could be affected by oil spills and shipping traffic, said Raúl González, marine biologist from the National University of Comahue.

Southern Right Whale specimens tracked by scientists in the San Matías gulf. Organised by name and colour, they are Aguamarina (red), Zafiro (yellow), Topacio (green), Fluorita (light blue), Coral (blue) and Turquesa (pink). Source: Siguiendo Ballenas.

The impacts to biodiversity, González said, depend on the contingency plans for oil spills and the routes selected for shipping transit.

The Argentine Association of Whaling Guides called for the cessation of the project, citing Argentina’s commitment to the Cop15 biodiversity pact to protect 30% of oceans by 2030.

In a letter sent to provincial legislators, a coalition of environmental NGOs said pushing the terminal “is to condemn the present and future of current and future generations”.

This story was edited on August 31, 2023, to amend Fabricio DiGiacomo’s residence.

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Europe’s economic relations with Argentina are strong. Despite the geographical distance, EU investment in the country accounts for half of foreign investment. Similarly, the bloc is Argentina’s third-largest trading partner, behind Brazil and China.

While the more comprehensive trade agreement between the EU and its Latin American counterpart, Mercosur, flounders, von der Leyen agreed on a bilateral agreement with Buenos Aires on Monday (17 July). It follows a similar agreement on materials agreed in June.

“Europe and Argentina are partnering for a more secure, sustainable and prosperous world,” she said.

Ahead of elections, Argentina’s leaders wrap fossil fuels in the flag

The non-binding agreement hinges on four key aspects: hydrogen and its derivatives, renewables, energy efficiency, and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

With Russian gas flows into Europe at an all-time low, the two partners committed to “enabling a stable delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Argentine Republic to the European Union.”

Argentina’s export dreams

The 45 million-strong country, which heavily relies on natural gas for its own energy consumption, is a serious player in the gas industry – bolstered by the rich shale gas stemming from Vaca Muerta in the South-West.

To export its fracked riches, Buenos Aires is working on a law to boost its LNG industry – with an eye to begin exporting at scale as early as 2027.

The agreement insists that supplying LNG will be  “consistent with [the EU’s and Argentina’s]  respective long-term decarbonisation objectives and consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

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Likely as a concession to Brussels, the agreement also insists that Argentina tackles its leaky gas wells. In 2022, at least one new gas well was drilled in Vaca Muerta per month.

Meanwhile, the formerly Argentina-based NGO Center for Human Rights and Environment warned in 2018 that at least 5% of produced gas was entering the atmosphere, often due to operators venting surpluses to maintain operational security.

“The Participants endeavour to reduce methane leakages in the fossil gas supply chain to the maximum technically feasible level,” the EU-Argentina agreement stresses, adding that new technologies should help tackle “venting and flaring.”

Both venting and flaring are commonplace methods of ensuring production equipment does not get damaged by too much fossil gas. Given methane’s extreme climate impact, it is 28 times worse than CO2 on a 100-year basis, uncontrolled venting is among the most climate-damaging by-products of producing fossil gas.

The agreement also points to integrating “recovered methane into the supply chain.” Methane that would otherwise leak into the atmosphere can be captured and used regularly. One key source may be landfills, like Norte III in Buenos Aires, which account for about half of the city’s methane emissions.

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Renewable potential

“In large parts of your beautiful country, in the large plateau of the South, you can only hear one sound: this is the sound of the wind, running undisturbed,” explained von der Leyen in June when speaking to business executives.

Argentina has all it takes to become a “renewable energy powerhouse,” she said, adding that “the extraordinary Patagonian winds are a blessing of nature.”

In practice, the EU-Argentina agreement is sparse on the details – aside from a commitment to “facilitate investments necessary to increase energy trade between the Participants.”

European investments are largely expected to come through the European Gateway Initiative, which has a “Team Europe” approach, meaning that EU countries invest under the banner of the bloc.

For example, France and the EU have supported upgrading and bringing the country’s electricity grid up to speed. Other projects include waste and water management support and aid in exploiting the country’s rich mineral resources.

Whether similar initiatives will help fund the country’s nascent LNG infrastructure is unclear.

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As the country gears up for election season, all the leading candidates and even some young environmentalists support the building of the Néstor Kirchner pipeline — a key piece of infrastructure that would allow for record gas exports from the Vaca Muerta “carbon bomb”.

Fossil fuels’ opponents have been villified with state-owned oil company YPF hiring a consultancy who advised them to ridicule environmentalists who opposed offshore oil drilling, as well as attaching the project to “nationalistic” views.

Pipeline for a “carbon bomb”

Ten years ago, gas was discovered in the Vaca Muerta shale fields of Argentina’s far west.

Despite this bounty of energy though, Argentina is still shipping in expensive foreign gas, as moving Vaca Muerta’s gas to eastern population centres by truck is prohibitively expensive.

To overcome this, successive governments have tried to build a pipeline from the gas fields to the country’s capital Buenos Aires, to provide energy to its 15 million consumers and to export gas abroad, earning the country much-needed foreign currency.

Hoy, en una jornada histórica, comienza el llenado del Gasoducto Presidente Néstor Kirchner, la obra de ingeniería más importante de los últimos 50 años y un hito trascendental en la gestión del ministro @SergioMassa. pic.twitter.com/0GH0CUm6DU

— Flavia Royon (@FlaviaRoyon) June 20, 2023

The project was held back by economic crisis then pandemic but today a section of it was finally inaugurated.

Argentina secures funding boost to kickstart gas exports from ‘carbon bomb’

Wearing a hard hat near gas workers waving the Argentine flag, energy minister Flavia Royon called the pipeline “the most important engineering work of the last 50 years and a transcendental milestone”

The pipeline is named after former president Néstor Kirchner, deceased husband of the current vice-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Election campaign

With presidential elections scheduled for October, all the leading candidates support the pipeline.

With unpopular president Alberto Fernández not running for re-election, the most likely candidate from the current ruling faction is economy minister Sergio Massa. He has called the pipeline a “turning point” and was at today’s ceremony.

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (left) and Sergio Massa (right). (Photo: Victor Brugge/Wikimedia Commons)

The right-wing opposition’s leading candidates –  Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Patricia Bullrich and Javier Milei – all support the pipeline too.

Support goes further than the political class. Even the Argentinan branch of Greta Thunberg’s Fridays for Future movement is supportive.

Recently, Bruno Rodriguez, a leading figure from Youth for Climate Argentina said that Argentina “must develop” and producing gas “is a step in that direction”.

Asked about this, Thunberg said: “I don’t know these parts of the movement so I can’t speak on behalf of them but our general message – at least in the part of the climate movement I’m in – is that we need to move away from all fossil fuels and all false solutions”.

#SB58 | Le pregunté a @GretaThunberg cuál es su opinión sobre el hecho de que algunas organizaciones de juventud climática están apoyando la explotación del gas en nombre “del desarrollo” y en nombre de que “es un recurso para la transición”

Su respuesta: pic.twitter.com/63AlY4TjAH

— Tais Gadea Lara (@TaisGadeaLara) June 14, 2023

Martín Álvarez is a researcher at Observatorio Petrolero Sur, based in the city of General Roca, not far from the gas fields.

He told Climate Home that the Buenos Aires-based Youth for Climate has been able to “be interlocutors with real power due to the lack of federalism that exists in the country”.

He said that the strength of the environmental movements lies in different provinces of Argentina “not in the youth of the urban middle class, who never understood what is happening [outside of the big cities]”.

Leaked document

Environmentalists that oppose oil drilling off Argentina’s eastern coast, which the government approved in 2021, face a state campaign to discredit them.

Last June, Extinction Rebellion Argentina leaked a document which proved that YPF hired a consultancy called Eonia to train supporters of the pipeline in government and the oil industry to influence public opinion and build a “social license” for the project.

 

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A post shared by Rebelión o Extinción Argentina (@xrargentina)

In a slide labelled “rejection of ridicule”, the manual says that many people join a cause because it is fashionable, a sense of belonging or a desire to be part of something bigger and positive.

“We must turn this fashion into a deep fear of being ridiculous,” the slide says, “tying it with the most insane claims and with the most uncomfortable forms”.

Alongside the text are pictures of Extinction Rebellioin protesters throwing soup and paint over artworks, like a Van Gogh painting in London. The painting was unharmed.

One of its slides is titled “nationalist acceptance” and says the oil drilling should be framed as a way for Argentina to go from energy importer to exporter and “make the dollars that Argenina lacks”.

The first offshore driling is expected to start before the end of the year, with Norwegian firm Equinor given the contract.

Protesters in Mar Del Plata march against offshore oil drilling last January (Photo credit: Diego Izquierdo/Greenpeace)

Álvarez said he had “great concern” because it is the state that is carrying out these policies, as the government has a majority stake in YPF.

Environmentalists face harassment and threats on social media too. With twitter users calling them “traitors to the homeland” and declaring “with the bones of the environmentalists, we will build the foundations of the refineries”.

In Argentina’s 40th year of democracy, Alvarez said, environmentalists should not be marginalised and stigmatised or there will be no progress towards a fairer society.

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The bank announced a deal last week to finance the Néstor Kirchner pipeline, a project that would allow the country to export gas from the Argentinian Patagonia’s Vaca Muerta field, which campaigners have described as a ‘carbon bomb’ due to huge emissions potential.

Vaca Muerta currently holds the world’s second-largest shale gas deposit and could lead to “record oil and gas production,” according to Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández.

Sergio Massa, minister of economy, said in the past that Argentina did not have the finance to carry the project forward, but now they have an “opportunity for Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Uruguay to access the world’s largest reserves of gas, which we have at our disposal”.

The move could contribute to pushing global temperature rise beyond 1.5C – a threshold above which climate impacts will be significantly worse for people and ecosystems. The International Energy Agency stated in a 2021 report that new oil and gas projects are incompatible with international climate goals.

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Carbon bomb

Activists are critical of the initiative due to its impact on carbon emissions. However, the national government points to Vaca Muerta as an economic hope.

According to 350.org in Latin America, the project is a “carbon bomb” that threatens to use up more than 11% of the world’s remaining carbon budget to reach 1.5C.

Talks to expand gas exports from Vaca Muerta date back to the early 2000s, but were abandoned after Argentina focused its gas production for domestic use. But a 2010 discovery found large gas reserves and led to initiatives to boost exports.

Currently, 31 oil and gas companies have contracts to operate in Vaca Muerta, among them Shell, ExxonMobil and Argentinian company YPF.

To transport shale oil and gas from Vaca Muerta, the Néstor Kirchner pipeline will run more than 570 kilometers from Tratayén, in the shale fields, to northern Argentina’s Santa Fé province.

A map of the Vaca Muerta field in the Argentinian Patagonia. (Photo: Ministry of Economy of Argentina)

Ilan Zugman, 350.org Latin America managing director, said the fracking technique used in the oil and gas extraction is dangerous to the environment. Chemicals used in the process are polluting rivers.

According to 350.org estimates, costs from healthcare, stranded assets and oil spills from Vaca Muerta’s operations could reach between $2.2 and $5.6 billion, compared to the estimated project profits of $2.1 billion if all the oil and gas is exploited.

The first stretch of the pipeline is set to be inaugurated by the middle of this year. At the same time, Argentina is experiencing its hottest recorded summer. The combination of heatwaves and drought is affecting agricultural yields, causing economic losses and negative health impacts.

The high temperatures and drought sparked fires that affected critical energy infrastructure. For several days, about half of Argentina faced blackouts.

Help from abroad

Zugman said Argentina does not have sufficient resources to bring to market all of Vaca Muerta’s oil and gas by itself. As a result, the government is seeking deals overseas to finance critical export infrastructure.

President Fernández discussed the issue with a number of European leaders. Meanwhile, state-owned oil and gas company YPF has landed a deal with Malaysia’s Petronas to develop an LNG terminal at the port of Bahia Blanca, in Buenos Aires.

In January, during a meeting between Fernández and Brazilian president Lula da Silva, the latter  considered financial support for the project. “We’re going to create the conditions to finance within our possibilities and help the pipeline,” Lula said.

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Earlier this year, the Argentinian government sent a delegation to Brazil to secure gas sales from Vaca Muerta.

President Lula has promised to gradually reduce fossil fuel use, but he said he will support oil and gas production in Brazil.

Zugman said Brazil’s support for the pipeline would contradict Lula’s environmental policies.

While Lula’s government claims to prioritise the protection of indigenous people, supporting Vaca Muerta represents a threat to the Mapuche people in Patagonia, he said.

The Brazilian National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) told Climate Home that it currently has no plan to finance oil and gas projects outside Brazil.

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Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández met German leader Olaf Scholz in May and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi at the G7 summit this week.

In both meetings, Fernández discussed support for a gas liquefaction facility which would allow Argentina’s fracked gas to be stored and transported by sea to Europe. Both Scholz and Draghi agreed to further talks on the issue, he said.

Con el presidente del Consejo de Ministros de Italia, Mario Draghi, dialogué sobre la posibilidad de que su país participe en los proyectos existentes en la Argentina para instalar plantas de licuación de gas y exportarlo.

Seguiremos potenciando los intercambios. pic.twitter.com/LO3O75GV5o

— Alberto Fernández (@alferdez) June 27, 2022

Germany and Italy are among developed countries that committed to end their support for overseas fossil fuel projects by the end of 2022 during the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow. But at the G7 leaders’ summit this week, both Berlin and Rome pushed the group to water down this commitment.

In a joint communique, the group of wealthy democracies “stress[ed] the important role increased deliveries of LNG [gas] can play” in accelerating the phase out of their dependency on Russian energy and “acknowledge[d] that investment in this sector is necessary in response to the current crisis”.

“In these exceptional circumstances, publicly supported investment in the gas sector can be appropriate as a temporary response,” the statement adds.

Speaking to reporters at the summit, Scholz said “the future does not lie in gas” but “in the short-term, gas is going to be necessary and there can be investments in the transitional phase which are going to have to be supported”.

Draghi echoed his German counterpart’s comments, telling the press: “It’s quite clear that in the present situation, we’ll have short-term needs that will require large investments in gas infrastructure in developing countries and elsewhere.”

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But analysts told Climate Home News the gas facilities the Argentinian government wants to develop will take too long to build to meet Europe’s short-term need for alternatives to Russian gas.

E3G oil and gas campaigner Euan Graham said: “New public finance for LNG facilities is the dangerous act of a [German] government in crisis mode. By the time it comes online, EU member states could have already eliminated Russian gas.”

For Argentina to export its gas to Europe, it will need a pipeline from the Vaca Muerta gas field to the coast and a liquefaction facility to turn the gas into a liquid known as LNG which can be transported on ships for export.

The Nestor Kirchner pipeline, linking Vaca Muerta with a port on the Atlantic coast, was announced in 2018 but has been hit by political scandals and construction has yet to begin.

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Mike Fulwood, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told Climate Home that liquefaction facilities usually take about four years to build. “Argentina may take longer,” he added.

According to E3G analysis of the European Union’s recent REPowerEU energy plan, the EU will require 50 billion cubic meters a year of additional LNG up to 2025. After that, the bloc should begin to reduce its LNG demand by replacing it with clean technology like renewables and heat pumps.

The EU’s ‘fit for 55’ package to meet the union’s climate objectives this decade entails reducing gas demand 30% by 2030 on 2021 levels, the E3G analysis found. Italian think-tank Ecco, which did the same analysis but included more recent public statements from the European Commission, put the number at more than 40%.

Ecco policy adviser Annalisa Perteghella told Climate Home: “These projects have long payback periods, meaning that either we are locking-in new gas infrastructure or we are creating stranded assets”.

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Alejo Di Risio, from the Argentinian Association of Environmental Lawyers, echoed the concern that an expensive pipeline and liquefaction facility risk being built and not be used for their whole intended lifespan. “Stranded assets are highly likely,” he said.

If the facilities are built, this will encourage production in Vaca Muerta, one of the world’s “carbon bombs” which, if fully exploited, will contribute to blowing the world’s carbon budget, he added. According to the US Energy Information Administration, Argentina has the third-biggest shale gas reserves of any country in the world.

It will cause local environmental and social damage too, Di Risio said. A report by the Socio-Environmental and Energy Justice Alliance last year found that fracking at Vaca Muerta had caused tremors, multiplied landfills, damaged farming yields and that the waste was burnt by fossil fuel companies.

Waste ponds containing toxic fracking chemicals are putting the northern Patagonia ecosystem at risk (Photo: Greenpeace)

An influx of well-paid oil workers into rural Patagonia has caused a ‘gold rush effect’, the report found. It has pushed up the price of food and housing and brought prostitution and the trafficking of women and drugs. “Families with scarce resources [have] pile[d] up on the edge of towns,” it adds.

Oil jobs are well-paid but the conditions are “dire,” Di Riso said. That’s “because of the wind, because of the weather, because [workers] have to go really far from the cities…it’s a harsh climate and pretty desolate,” he said.

Asked for a message for Scholz and Draghi, Di Risio said: “What people don’t want to carry out in their own territories shouldn’t be carried out in other territories that are turned into sacrifice zones”.

A German government spokesperson declined to comment. At the time of publication, the Italian government had not responded to Climate Home’s request.

The post Germany, Italy moot support for gas export facility in Argentina appeared first on Climate Home News.

The encounter lasted around 25 minutes and took place in a side study of the Vatican’s auditorium, a location often used for less formal meetings between the head of the Catholic Church and international dignitaries.

Pope Francis, an Argentinian Jesuit and advocate for social justice, pressed the president on one point: whether Argentina would consider a green debt swap, two sources familiar with the discussion told Climate Home News.

Debt is a sensitive issue in Argentina. A troubled record of defaults and austerity packages is linked to widespread poverty and unemployment. The hope is that investing in climate action and ecosystem preservation can satisfy creditors without hurting the poor.

“We need to renew the financial architecture,” including by “swap[ping] debt for environmental actions,” Fernandez said at a climate summit hosted by the US in April.

Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is on board. “Green debt swaps have the potential to contribute to climate finance. They have the potential to facilitate accelerated action in developing countries,” she told reporters at the institution’s spring meetings.

Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández
addresses the US leaders’ climate summit in April 2021 (Photo: Sky News/ YouTube)

But the green debt swap concept brings its own controversies: many observers are wary of commodifying nature and sceptical of how rigorously the environmental benefits will be counted.

“I am worried about translating the economic model that has caused climate change into how we deal with nature. I don’t think it’s the solution,”  Maria di Paola, head of research at Argentinian NGO Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (Farn), told Climate Home.

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The concept of debt for climate and nature swaps has risen up the agenda of low and middle-income countries squeezed between mounting debt to respond to the pandemic and the need for longer-term investments to address the climate crisis.

Argentina was in fiscal trouble before Covid-19 and the pandemic only exacerbated the problem as revenues from commodity exports collapsed.  

At the end of 2020, Argentina’s debt had rocketed to 104.5% of its GDP, according to government figures. The government announced earlier that year that it had started discussions with the IMF to renegotiate the conditions of its debt payment and restructure $100 billion with its creditors.

The idea of repaying some of its creditors in environmental benefits has been maturing for several months.

Last week, environment minister Juan Cabandié told a high-level event: “When we think about the dollars that we have to get to pay the maturity of the debt, we must put special focus on the need to generate a debt swap for environmental action which, in the end, will translate into compensation for the benefit of all humanity.”

Argentina’s economics minister Martín Guzmán meets with IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva in Washington DC in March 2021 (Photo: IMF Photo/Kim Haughton/Flickr)

Economics minister Martín Guzmán has a chance to advance the proposal in a meeting with the IMF’s Julie Kozack on the sidelines of a G20 climate conference in Venice on Sunday.

Advocacy group Avaaz has thrown its weight behind the idea. In a full page advert in the Financial Times, the group photoshops Guzmán and Georgieva into a gondola in Venice. The caption urges both leaders “to work together to make Argentina the model for a new way forward”.

It calls on the IMF “to agree to clearing all debts, and ensuring that instead of unsustainable debt repayments, countries like Argentina can use their funds to protect the ecological wealth that is essential for the whole world’s survival”.

Ocean fire exposes weak regulation of Mexico’s oil and gas sector

The IMF is working with the World Bank to present a set of options for green debt swap instruments by the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow, UK, in November.

Argentina could be the pioneer, if the government is able to bring the plan to fruition before parliamentary elections in the autumn. But the public has low trust in the IMF, after previous debt relief came conditional on painful austerity measures – and that jeopardises a deal.

Oscar Soria, campaign director at Avaaz, described discussions around debt in Argentina as “emotionally charged”.

“People in Argentina know what the IMF is because debt has been part of their lives,” he told Climate Home.

Debt is an integral part of Argentina’s economic history. And governments have been judged on their ability to reduce the debt or add to it.

The Paris Club of creditors was created in 1956 as Argentina sought to renegotiate its debt with its public creditors.

In 2001, Argentina faced an economic crisis that resulted in one of the largest public insolvencies in history. It defaulted on $132 billion of sovereign debt and lost access to global financial markets. Relations with the IMF were strained as the fund cut off its support, leading to social unrest.

By 2002, an estimated 57% of Argentinians lived below the poverty line and unemployment affected nearly a quarter of the workforce. 

To alleviate its debt burden, Argentina championed a debt-for-education swap with Spain but the deal was never implemented because it failed to meet international creditors’ rules.

In 2018, Argentina received the biggest lending package in IMF history in a bid to halt a slide in the value of the local peso currency — which it is now unable to repay in full. 

In May last year, Argentina defaulted on its debt payments for the ninth time. The crisis was reminiscent of 2001 and poverty rates rose to 42% in the second half of 2020.

Pakistan explores debt-for-nature scheme to accelerate its 10 billion tree tsunami

The Vatican has offered a space to facilitate discussions between the government and the IMF. 

“The pope is going to do everything he can to help us,” Fernandez told reporters after his first meeting with the pope in January 2020. 

A spokesperson for the Holy See told Climate Home the issue of debt relief “was very dear” to the pope, who saw first hand the impacts of the debt on Argentina’s social fabric in the early 2000s.

In a speech in February 2020, Pope Francis called for “new forms of solidarity” to emerge to deal with developing countries’ debt. He later said developed nations “owed an ecological debt” to the developing countries for exploiting their natural resources – an idea widespread in Argentina.

Pope Francis (Photo: Mazur/catholicnews.org.uk/Flickr)

But allowing creditors to monetise Argentina’s natural wealth is a source of concern among campaigners like Farn’s Di Paola.

With no details published on how the swap will be implemented, Di Paola questioned who would hold the government accountable for ensuring the money was invested in meaningful climate solutions.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Argentina has spent $1.36 billion in support of fossil fuels to try to reboot its economy, with most of that subsidising gas extraction. Less than half a million dollars was spent on clean energy. 

Di Paola expressed concern debt payments written off by creditors could be used to further prop up the gas industry, particularly fracking activities in Vaca Muerta. 

In an IMF technical note dated March 2020, the fund assumed the government would promote foreign direct investments in the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas reserves to boost growth. 

“As civil society, we are worried that global financial institutions speak good on climate but really just want their money back with interest,” Di Paola said. 

For her colleague Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis, senior advisor on climate change at Farn, a debt swap could work if it enables investments in carbon-cutting infrastructure projects, such as electrification of transport and rolling out renewable energy.

“This could be a big opportunity to incentive the energy transition. We need incentives, for the moment we don’t have them,” he said.

The post Argentina pitches green debt swap, with the Pope’s blessing appeared first on Climate Home News.

According to the joint statement, both countries have made significant progress on lowering their fossil fuel subsidies.

“Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies is an important step in the transition to a low-carbon economy,” said the statement.

Canada and Argentina are the hosts of this year’s G7 and G20 respectively. Those two bodies have pledged to end “inefficient” subsidies for fossil fuel use.

Canada, which is a member of both the G7 and G20, has committed to working to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies every year since 2009. G7 countries put a date on subsidy phase-out two years ago, pledging to ditch the “inefficient” handouts by 2025. The G20 has a similar pledge, but aims for a vaguer “medium term” timeline.

Earlier this month, an NGO review found G7 subsidies were worth $100 billion a year. Subsidies can include anything from government spending on energy infrastructure to price controls on energy.

This month, observers told Climate Home News that Canada’s pledge to spend $3.5bn to nationalise the Kinder Morgan oil pipeline counted as a huge new subsidy.

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“As a G20 country, Argentina reaffirms its commitment to rationalise and phase out, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, recognizing the need to support the poor, and we will endeavour to make further progress in moving forward on this commitment,” said Juan José Aranguren, Argentina’s minister of energy and mining.

“[The review] will help us to enhance our energy security, mitigate climate change and keep our focus on those people who really need subsidies,” said Aranguren.

The announcement did not set a deadline for the review to be delivered.

“Canada’s partnership with Argentina in this peer review demonstrates our commitment to ambitious climate and energy policies,” said Jim Carr, Canada’s minister of natural resources.

UNFCCC executive secretary Patricia Espinosa praised the announcement on Twitter. “Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels is essential to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement,” she said.

Good development that Canada and Argentina have agreed to enter into a peer review of #fossilfuel subsidies https://t.co/TAO5VawOai Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels is essential to achieving the goals of the #ParisAgreement and #GlobalGoals #G20 #G7 pic.twitter.com/WeXGFvzSgZ

— Patricia Espinosa C. (@PEspinosaC) June 15, 2018

According to a report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) in June, Canada spent the most per capita of any G7 country on oil and gas production.

Republish this article

The post Canada and Argentina to peer review each other’s fossil fuel subsidies appeared first on Climate Home News.

The downfall of Dilma Rousseff and the instatement of her conservative vice-president, Michel Temer, not only have put an end to 13 years of Workers’ Party rule in Brazil, but also consolidated a historic defeat for the left in Latin America.

The region’s four biggest economies – Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia – now have center or right-of-the center governments. At first sight, that might spell doom for the mother of all progressive agendas, the fight against global warming.

The right-wing approach to regulation naturally gives leverage to the private sector to resist change.

Weekly briefing: Sign up for your essential climate politics update

As it happens, this is Latin America, not by chance the birthplace of magical realism. Things that might be perfectly sensible elsewhere in the world don’t work quite the same way in this corner of the Earth.

The much-feared demotion of environmental protection in general and climate mitigation in particular has not always been thus far the logical consequence of the rise of the right.

In Mexico, for instance, the right-wing government of Felipe Calderón has famously helped salvage international climate negotiations at the Cancun conference, and kickstarted a comprehensive domestic mitigation policy that includes carbon pricing.

The chancellor who served that government is now the UN’s top climate official.

Report: Brazil to ratify Paris climate deal amid forest fire surge

In Colombia and Peru, the climate agenda seems to float above the mood swings of the ballots. In Argentina, the recently elected right-wing president Mauricio Macri is more sensitive to the issue than his predecessor, Cristina Kirchner.

In his first speech at the UN General Assembly, earlier this week, Macri touted climate change as the world’s biggest biggest challenge faced by Mankind. However, it remains to be seen how that increased sensitivity will play out, given the host of other pressing domestic problems the country faces.

Such apparent climate-friendliness of the right relates to how part of the left has traditionally regarded development and natural resources in this part of the world.

In Brazil and Argentina, but also in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, the left’s development playbook has included State ownership of behemoth fossil fuel companies (a token of “sovereignty”), to whom large sums of taxpayers’ money have been directed; State-driven expansion of heavy infrastructure (to “boost the economy”), often in disregard of social and environmental safeguards; and, in the Brazilian case, subsidies to gasoline and tax breaks to automobiles (to “keep families’ consumption rates” as an “anti-cyclic measure” against the “international crisis”).

Ms. Rousseff’s personal playbook has also featured a grudge against renewable energies, which she famously touted as “fantasy”, and alliance with agribusiness whereby Senator Kátia Abreu, the “Chainsaw Queen”, ended up as Agriculture minister – while the agrarian reform so dear to the left was all but forgotten.

Never before had agribusiness and fossil fuels received so much public investment as in her term. It should be noted, however, that Rousseff’s final act as President before being suspended, in April, was to send the Paris Agreement to Congress for ratification.

This may prove to be the highlight of Temer's term in office #Brazil #climate #ParisAgreement pic.twitter.com/pwfSQkoTo2

— Ed King (@edking_I) September 13, 2016

Michel Temer has been sending mixed signals since he took office as interim President. On one hand, some of worst Brazilian politicians now either sit in his cabinet or have an increased influence in his government.

His government plan mentions the environment only once – as a barrier to development. Indigenous lands, environmental licensing and protected areas are under pressure from his allies in Congress. The mighty Agribusiness and Industry associations (CNA and CNI) are empowered.

On the other hand, Mr. Temer’s Environment minister, Sarney Filho, is a well-known advocate of more ambition in the climate/environment agenda, and has seized on the opportunity provided by the recession to bury the controversial Tapajós mega-dam project.

The new chancellor, José Serra, has listed among the top ten priorities of Brazil’s foreign policy the “special responsibility” of his country in environmental matters. Maybe in a bid for international legitimacy, Temer has vowed to ratify the Paris Agreement in September 12th, making Brazil one of the first big polluters to do so.

Can Temer deliver?

The proof of the pudding, however, will lie in implementation. The most backwards economic agents are guaranteed to impose resistance to an early adoption of the mitigation policies from Brazil’s Paris pledge.

Will Mr. Temer compromise? Business interests in government and in Congress are also pushing for a weaker environmental licensing.

Will Mr. Temer acquiesce? The rural caucus (bancada ruralista) in Congress is eager to grab indigenous lands.

Will he give in? How will he deal with Petrobras, the state oil company at the heart of the recent corruption scandals, and the high hopes for the deep ocean oil against the reality of the Paris goals?

Most importantly, Mr. Temer must perceive climate mitigation as a strategic development issue. Brazil has several comparative advantages on adopting a clean development agenda as part of the pathway to economic recovery.

Clean energy, efficient agriculture, and forestry can deliver emission cuts and at the same time create jobs and revenue. It’s in the President’s hands to seize on the opportunity.

Carlos Rittl is the executive secretary of the Brazilian Climate Observatory, a network of 40 civil society organizations

The post Can the right be good for the climate in Latin America? appeared first on Climate Home News.

By Ed King

US president Barack Obama and Argentina president Mauricio Macri have agreed to work together on climate change and approve the 2015 Paris agreement by the end of 2016.

The pair said they would work to secure a global deal to cut aviation emissions this year, phase out potent warming gases known as HFCs and scale up renewables.

“We share a commitment to protect this planet for our children and grandchildren,” said Obama in a press conference on Wednesday. “The president’s support was critical to success in Paris.”

A factsheet released by the White House said the US and Argentina would sign and join the 2015 UN climate deal “as soon as feasible”.

The countries would also “work together to support efforts toward early entry-into-force of the Agreement”.

Deep decarbonisation: Obama’s greatest climate legacy?

The UN hopes a record number of world leaders will make it to New York on 22 April for a signing ceremony.

Once 55 countries covering 55% of global emissions have joined, the deal comes into force.

The two major oil and gas producers said they would “promote safe and responsible development of unconventional oil and gas resources” and pursue joint research into nuclear technologies.

Argentina’s pledge to cut HFCs – commonly used in fridges and air conditioning – marks a change from previous administrations, said Durwood Zaelke from the US-based Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development.

The UN hopes to secure global agreement under the ozone-busting Montreal Protocol to wipe out HFCs later this year.

“The HFC amendment is the single biggest, fastest piece of mitigation available in the near term,” said Zaelke.

“It will prevent the equivalent of 100 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2050 and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by the end of the century.”

Analysis: Could Cuban detente bring a new energy dawn?

Earlier this week, Obama concluded a similar climate deal with president Raul Castro after his historic visit to Cuba.

“The United States will also work with Cuba to pursue cooperation in the areas of disaster risk reduction, addressing ocean acidification, advancing climate-smart agriculture, and sharing best practices and lessons learned through international initiatives focused on adaptation and low emissions development,” read a statement.

“The United States welcomes opportunities to work with Cuba to enhance our bilateral cooperation on climate change, and also work together to play a positive role in addressing this urgent global challenge through international fora.”

The post US, Argentina sign climate pact, urge aviation emissions deal appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: UN Photos)

By Megan Darby

Climate pledges by Latin America’s major economies do not go far enough to hold warming below 2C, analysts warned on Thursday.

Climate Action Tracker awarded Brazil and Peru a “medium” rating for their targets, being at the weaker end of a “fair” contribution to global efforts. That is the same category as the EU, US and China.

Offers from Chile and Argentina were branded “inadequate”, in line with 3-4C of temperature rise from pre-industrial levels.

“None of these countries will be immune to the effects of climate change. An increase in warming of 2C would have severe impacts on all four of them, and on the rest of the continent,” said Marcia Rocha, head of climate policy at Climate Analytics.

“Yet instead of taking action commensurate with the size of the threat, these governments are largely sticking with their current policies, which are heading in the wrong direction.”

Paris tracker: Who has pledged what for 2015 UN climate pact?

To date, 155 countries have submitted national contributions to a UN climate deal to be finalised in Paris this December.

CAT, an alliance of four European research institutes, estimates the aggregate effect is to limit warming to 2.7C. That is an improvement on the 3.6C under business as usual, but far from the ultimate goal.

It judges only four countries to be making sufficient efforts: Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Morocco and the tiny mountain kingdom of Bhutan.

The latest assessments suggest Latin America needs to up its game on clean energy, saving forests and preparing for the impacts of climate change.

Brazil, the continent’s biggest emitter, made much of its hard target to cut greenhouse gases 37% from 2005 levels by 2025 and 43% by 2030.

It was the only developing country to propose absolute reductions from a historical year, rather than taking a business-as-usual baseline.

Report: Brazil minister calls out emerging economies over weak climate pledges
Report: Fracktivists ‘win’ as Brazil shale gas auction flops

But this actually represents a slight increase from the latest emissions figures, which tumbled in recent years due to a crackdown on deforestation.

The main source of pollution has flipped to energy, where rising demand is set to outweigh plans to get 45% from renewable sources by 2030.

“Brazil needs to be careful it doesn’t recarbonise its electricity sector,” said Rocha.

In Peru, rapid expansion of mining, agriculture and illegal logging jeopardise a goal to reach zero deforestation by 2021.

“With its current deforestation rates, it is difficult to see how Peru is going to meet its climate target,” said Juan Pablo Osornio, researcher at Ecofys.

Even if global warming is held to 2C, Peru is expected to lose 90% of its glaciers, raising the risk of water shortages.

Report: Peru climate pledge hinges on forests wager
Crowdsourcing the climate: Chile’s CO2 cutting plan nears fruition

Chile trumpeted its democratic approach to developing a climate plan, involving a broad grassroots consultation.

That appears to have resulted in a watered down plan, however. Its 30% emissions intensity cut by 2030 is weaker than options in a 2014 draft and “far from a 2C pathway”, CAT said.

As for Argentina, its 15% cut from business as usual in 2030 will allow absolute emissions to rise by a quarter. CAT projects it can meet the target without any further action.

What is more, Buenos Aires reserved the right to change its mind, raising uncertainty over its commitment going into Paris.

Report: Ecuador seeks to unite Latin America behind climate justice crusade

Experts on a webcast panel discussion from Brown University said the lack of green ambition was symptomatic of a wider economic malaise.

Kevin Gallagher, professor of global development policy at Boston University, said: “The fundamental economic model for Latin America is inherently unsustainable and there is no real sign of that shifting.”

The region is overly reliant on commodities, financial services and low-skilled work, he argued. Meanwhile it is not investing enough in innovation, structural transformation and natural capital.

“They are vulnerable to boom and bust cycles in the south related to commodity prices and in the north to manufacturing demand. Social and environmental conflict is at an all time high.”

Isabel Cavelier, a Colombian envoy to the UN, agreed: “We need an economy that is more diversified – that is the main challenge.”

She was more upbeat about the national climate plans, welcoming them as a better way for the UN to drive action than the previous top-down approach. “They are more owned by governments, they are more inclusive,” Cavelier said.

The post Latin America needs stronger climate pledges – analysts appeared first on Climate Home News.

Officials audit ballot boxes in Afghanistan’s 2014 election (Flickr/ UNAMA)

By Alex Pashley

The election cycle never ends.

Ahead of a decisive climate conference in seven weeks’ time, these are the countries set to elect governments and legislatures. Unpicking long-crafted stances might be dangerous, but not impossible.

What bearing could the shuffling of top national posts have  on UN climate talks?

1. Canada – 19 October

Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada is a major emitter with tar sands making up a chunk (Flickr/ Kris Krug)

Liberal party challenger Justin Trudeau is neck and neck with incumbent prime minister Steven Harper in the polls. Environmentalists are watching the race eagerly, hoping the result might herald some pro-climate policies, including to slash emissions from the country’s dirty tar sands.

Two-term Conservative leader Harper has blocked green reforms, says Ontario premier Kathleen Wynee, with her province leading the charge to defy Ottawa.

Trudeau has promised to link up all provinces and territories with carbon taxes, while his party platform includes support for a fossil fuel subsidy phase-out and is open to joining a North American clean energy agreement with Mexico and the US.

2. Poland – 25 October

Duda won an election in May, heralding a return to power for Poland’s right (tk) (Pic: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość/Flickr)

Favourites the Law and Justice (PiS) party have vowed to shore up Poland’s ageing coal industry and defy EU climate policies. President Andrzej Duda, who was elected in May, campaigned on a similar platform to protect those who haven’t enjoyed the spoils of years of strong growth.

Government figures have hit back, saying Poland would end up marginalised in Europe. Some analysts dismiss PiS pro-coal rhetoric as empty bluster, with key EU decisions long decided. Duda has already tracked back since winning power, passing clean air regulations for local authorities.

But how to salvage the country’s tottering mining companies is “the hot potato no one wants to touch,” says Julia Michalak at think tank Demos Europa.

3. Argentina – 25 October

Argentine president Christina Kirchner in 2014 (Flickr/ Argentine Culture Ministry)

The end of the kirchnerismo project is nigh as President Cristina Kirchner’s protégé Daniel Scioli takes on Mauricio Macri to govern South America’s third-largest economy.

Argentina has pledged to cut emissions at least 15% by 2030, though NGOs said the target’s reliance on existing policies was deceiving.

Scioli has labelled climate change the South American country’s “main enemy”, but candidates are said to have touched little on the subject on the campaign trail.

Argentina is a G20 member and promised to phase out fossil fuel subsidies in the medium term. A November conference may demand more strenuous actions. A second round is slated for 22 November, should no clear winner emerge.

4. Turkey – 1 November 

Yenikoy Open Pit Coal Mine, Milas (credit: wikimedia commons)

Turkey’s general election will go ahead in a fraught climate, after a deadly bomb attack killed 128 people in capital Ankara last Saturday.

Fiercely ambivalent on climate policy, president Recep Erdogan hopes to broaden support for his AK party after an inconclusive result in June. Don’t expect a change of tack in Paris.

The country is backing fossil fuel development, with a series of coal-fired power plants in the pipeline. Emissions have rocketed 110% between 1990 and 2013, and its pledge to the UN foresees that trend accelerating.

It hosting of the next G20  meeting in November will put the government under a lens, but isn’t expected to reverse dirty policy.

5. Myanmar – 8 November

Mystic temples of Bagan, just before sunrise. Bagan, Myanmar (Flickr/ KX Studio)

Could Myanmar’s first relatively free and fair election in 50 years be a new spring for the country’s international engagement? Analysts say Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy could well win a majority, shaking up the Asian country’s politics after military rule ended in 2011.

Myanmar is a blank slate for energy, with the government locked in debate over which direction to take. There is hope for solar, but an expansion of coal-fired power plants is assured to widen electricity access to the two out of three Burmese that lack it. The country lags as one of the worst for deforestation, according to the UN. What would effect would an NLD victory have on a cleaner energy future?

6. Marshall Islands – 16 November 

Laura beach in the Marshall Islands (Pic: Stefan Lins/Flickr)

The low-lying country of 24 atolls in the Pacific ocean has an outsized voice in UN talks given its vulnerability to sea-level rise and storms.

Foreign minister Tony de Brum has used that as his bully pulpit to campaign for more robust climate action. The island state came up with a bullish plan to cut emissions and boost renewables in July.

The senator has labelled climate change migration “genocide” and lambasted the UN’s shipping body chief over slow progress to curb maritime emissions. But like any politician, he must win re-election to the Nitijela parliament in capital Majuro. Polling data is not readily available.

Holding major emitters to account has bipartisan support in the Marshall Islands and the new government wont take office until next year after the Paris summit. But small islands states would lose a giant if de Brum did not win back his seat.

The post 6 elections to watch before Paris climate summit appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Casa Rosada in Buenos Aires, the residence of President Cristina Kirchner (Flickr/ Manuel Belgrano)

By Alex Pashley

Argentina’s mooted contribution to a UN-backed global warming pact has been criticised as “weak” and lacking in vision by environmentalists, according to local news reports.

The South American country will likely pledge to reduce greenhouse gases by 15% within 15 years, Clarin, a leading daily reported on Sunday, citing an environment ministry meeting with NGOs and the private sector.

“The proposals seem weak. We are committing little,” said Pablo Boniscontro, of youth campaign group, Aclimatando.

The proposal didn’t name a reference level for emissions cuts. They will probably be made against forecasts of future emissions growth, following the lead of Latin American pledges by Colombia, the Dominican Republic and several developing countries.

Report: Is Latin America on cusp of uniting before Paris summit?

The share of renewables in generating the country’s electricity could only account for 8% by 2030, the Buenos Aires-based daily reported. That is despite strong potential to roll out wind power in Patagonia and solar in the north-east of the country.

The country is one of the largest carbon polluters in the region, responsible for 0.88% of global emissions, while per capita emissions amount to about 10 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.

A fossil fuel-dependent energy system and forest clearance for soy and cattle farming are behind relatively high emissions.

Total emissions could surge as much as 45% by 2020 on a decade earlier, according to Climate Action Tracker.

Dam role

NGOs said the mitigation effort relied on long-proposed hydroelectric dams, including one named after late president Nestor Kirchner, which had limited potential to cut emissions and could release methane.

“Many of the projects accounted for purposes of mitigation are already underway,” said Juan Carlos Villalonga, president of the Environmental Protection Agency in capital Buenos Aires.

“It’s like cheating.”

The environment ministry laid out plans to electricity railways with US$2 billion of Chinese loans, replace some petroleum usage with biofuels, boost energy efficiency and plant trees with foreign cash.

Analysis: What China’s investment binge in Latin America means for the climate

The draft proposals were “conservative” as the ministry had been “working against the clock”, noted Rocio Rodriguez of Herza Global, an environmental consultancy.

The government said it would meet a UN 1 October deadline for “intended nationally determined contributions” to a global pact, giving it two weeks to increase the draft cuts.

“There always exists the possibility of improvement. You aren’t going to present something that you can’t achieve,” said ministry official Juan Pablo Vismara.

The post Argentina set for ‘cheating’ climate pledge – NGOs appeared first on Climate Home News.

The expansion of the use of air conditioning is one of the main drivers of the growth in HFCs (Source: Flickr/Yoni Lerner)

By Megan Darby

Saudi Arabia is resisting efforts to phase out super-pollutants used in air conditioning, over concerns the alternatives will not work at high temperatures.

The Gulf state was “the most vocal opponent” of proposals to stop the production of HFC gases discussed in Paris last week, according to a think-tank present at the talks.

Saudi negotiator Taha Zatari unsuccessfully sought to strike HFCs, a group of short-lived but highly potent greenhouse gases, off the agenda at a meeting of parties to the Montreal Protocol.

The discussion went ahead but Zatari, who also represents Saudi Arabia at global climate summits, continued to raise objections.

The gases are super pollutants used in fridges, air conditioners and foam insulation. Thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide, they could account for 19% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 if their manufacture continues unchecked.

The chief concern is that there are no substitutes for HFCs proven to work in air conditioning under the scorching temperatures of the Middle East – at least not that are available at competitive prices. Other states in the region, notably Jordan, are prepared to take a chance on the technology developing.

An observer, who did not wish to be identified for fear of being blocked from future meetings, said of Zatari: “He has been extremely obstructive and quite unreasonable in most of the discussions.”

Zatari could not be reached for comment.

Funding

Brazil and Argentina, meanwhile, are reluctant to move to formal negotiations on the proposed HFC phase-out until developed countries commit more funds.

The fund associated with the Montreal Protocol has disbursed US$450 million over the past three years to help developing countries meet existing commitments.

Member countries are due to agree a budget in November for the next three years, but it is not yet clear how much would be needed to support the transition away from HFCs.

Brazilian negotiator Rafael da Soler explained: “We do not know how much money would be needed to finance this transition or how much would be available, and that is precisely the source of our concern.”

There are “serious doubts” about the willingness of some developed countries to contribute, da Soler said. Brazil needs “unequivocal signals” of support from those countries before it will engage in formal negotiations.

India has historically opposed action on HFCs, to protect its refrigeration industry, but has not settled on a position since forming a new government in May.

That has raised hopes among campaigners India could follow China into supporting action.

ANALYSIS: Montreal could deliver quick, cheap pollution cuts 

Two groups of countries have been pushing for action on HFCs through the Montreal Protocol since 2009.

The issue was first raised by small island states, led by Micronesia, which are under threat from the sea level rise associated with climate change. They see it as a way to get quick results that can buy them time.

The US, Mexico and Canada submitted a similar, but separate proposal soon after. More than 100 parties to the Montreal Protocol now support the idea of phasing out HFCs.

Europe, the US and China have each taken steps towards limiting HFCs in favour of more climate-friendly refrigerants, but campaigners say other countries need to get on board.

Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, told RTCC cutting HFCs using the Montreal Protocol “will be the single fastest, cheapest method of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, from a treaty that never fails”.

Ironically, it is because the Montreal Protocol was successful in its original purpose, to protect the ozone layer by banning CFCs, that HFCs were developed as an alternative.

There is a small chance negotiators could overcome the lingering objections to strike a deal on HFCs at the next meeting of the Montreal Protocol in November.

Those close to the talks say it is more likely the matter will be pushed to next year. An agreement could then contribute to a global treaty on climate expected to be signed in Paris in December 2015.

Natasha Hurley, campaigner at the Environmental Investigation Agency, said: “We see no technical reason it cannot be done; it is a purely political issue at this stage.”

The post Saudi Arabia blocks action on super-polluting HFCs appeared first on Climate Home News.

Source: D Boersma/U of Washington

By Sophie Yeo

Climate change is killing penguin chicks, which are ill-adapted to increased rainfall, according to scientists from the University of Washington.

Too big to be sheltered by their parents, yet too young to have developed the waterproof feathers that protect them from the rain, fewer penguin chicks are expected to live beyond childhood as a warming world disrupts weather patterns.

“We’re going to see years where almost no chicks survive if climate change makes storms bigger and more frequent during vulnerable times of the breeding season as climatologists predict,” said Ginger Rebstock, co-author of the study which was published today in the journal Plos One.

Armed only with downy feathers, instead of the waterproof coats that they later develop, increased rain and storms mean that more and more chicks will die before they reach adulthood.

This means that the chicks are unable to warm up or dry off after heavy storms in November and December, when temperatures drop. Conversely, it means that when it gets too hot, they are unable to take a dip in the water to cool off.

Scientists from the University of Washington studied a colony of Magellanic penguins in Argentina over a 27-year period. The time span of the observations mean that they were able to measure the impact of climate change, rather than of single weather events, which alone cannot be attributed to changes in global temperatures.

They found that rainfall and the number of storms during the breeding season have already increased at the site, including during the first two weeks of December when all the chicks are less than 25 days old.

Researchers kept close tabs on the penguins during breeding season, visiting the nests twice a day. Whenever a chick disappeared or was found dead, they would scour the area for evidence of starvation, predators or other causes of death.

Over the period, they found that an average of 65% of chicks died each year. There were some years where the climate was the most common cause of death. On average, it killed 7% of the chicks each year, though this rose to 50% in one year, and 43% in another. Adult penguins will only lay eggs once a season, even if their infants die.

Co-author Dee Boersma said: “There may not be much we can do to mitigate climate change, but steps could be taken to make sure the Earth’s largest colony of Magellanic penguins have enough to eat by creating a marine protected reserve, with regulations on fishing, where penguins forage while raising small chicks.”

The post Climate change killing penguins say scientists appeared first on Climate Home News.

For the first time climate policymakers have a clear idea of how countries around the world are attempting to control their greenhouse gas emissions.

We have selected the highlights from Globe’s analysis of Argentina’s  attempts to address climate change.

Visit the Globe International website to download a full report and access data from the other countries featured.

Commentary: Terry Townshend

Argentina is a relatively small emitter of greenhouse gases and, as a non-Annex I country,  has no current obligation to reduce its emissions.

Despite this, Argentina has initiated a number of policies and measures that will lead to a reduction in emissions of warming gases measured against a business as usual scenario.

The main focus of Argentina’s climate-related legislation is on energy.

The government has implemented a comprehensive and far-reaching strategy to increase energy efficiency – in recognition that reducing energy demand is cost-effective – and, at the same time, has set targets for renewable energy supply.

Together, these measures will increase energy security whilst, at the same time, reducing emissions.

Political background
Legislation, or regulation related to climate change, has been particularly difficult to enact in Argentina. The country experienced a severe recession from 1998 until 2002, and an acute crisis in 2001, after which nearly 60% of the population was plunged into poverty. During the last decade, the federal government’s priority has been economic recovery and growth.

Investments necessary to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change are conceived as politically pitted against social investments in health, education and poverty reduction in a zero‐sum game. As such, Argentina has neither enacted comprehensive legislation related to climate change nor made an  official pledge to reduce GHG emissions by a measurable difference.

The country ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993. In 2001 it ratified the Kyoto Protocol, where it is classified as a developing country with no emission commitments.

Energy legislation
The National Program for Rational and Efficient Energy Use says it will reduce demand for electricity by 2,400 MW by 2015 and a lead to a 28 million tonne reduction in CO2 emissions (between 2006 and 2015).

Argentina has made the use of biofuels obligatory for all liquid fuel types used for transportation, while similar legislation related to renewable sources of electricity stipulates that by 2017, 10% of all electricity consumed must come from renewable energy sources.

Education
Modules related to the natural environment, protection of natural resources and prevention of pollution must be included in primary and secondary school curricula. Later congressional legislation and presidential decrees have mandated that climate change material also be included.

Major climate laws
Decree 140/2007 – Flagship climate law and Presidential decree declaring “rational and efficient” energy use a national priority. Includes ambitious goals to reduce energy consumption and promote the use of renewable energy in the public sector (including public transport and lighting), private industry and private residencies.

Law 26473/2010 – Aimed at cutting energy demand from lighting. Prohibits the importation and commercialisation of incandescent light bulbs for residential use throughout the country.

Law 26.190/2007 – Declares the production of electricity from renewable energy sources a matter of national interest. It requires that within 10 years (2017), 8% of all electricity consumed nationally must be generated from renewable energy sources.

Law 26.123/2006 – Declares the technological development, the production of, and the use of hydrogen fuel, as well as other alternative energy sources, a matter of national interest.

Law 26.093/2006 – Four years after enactment (by 2010) all gasoline produced and consumed in Argentina must be composed of no less than 5% biofuels.

National Decree 1070/2005 – Aimed at creating the National Argentine Carbon Fund (FAC) and to incentivise projects within the framework of The Clean Development Mechanism. By the end of 2006, projects participating in the fund were estimated to have avoided 27 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

RTCC Interview: Monica Casanovas, Head of Climate Change in Buenos Aires

For in-depth analysis of Argentina’s climate policies visit the Globe International website.

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