Pakistan’s southern province of Sindh has been sweltering under 52°C heat in recent days. Not in the news however is that wet-bulb temperatures in the region – a more accurate indicator of risk to human health that accounts for heat and humidity – passed a key danger threshold of 30°C.  

Climate change is increasing the risk of deadly humid heat in developing countries like Pakistan, Mexico and India, and without international support to adapt, vulnerable communities could face catastrophe.  

What is wet-bulb temperature? 

Wet-bulb temperature is an important scientific heat stress metric that accounts for both heat and humidity. When it’s both hot and humid, sweating – the body’s main way of cooling – becomes less effective as there’s too much moisture in the air. This can limit our ability to maintain a core temperature of 37°C – something we all must do to survive. 

A recent study suggests that wet-bulb temperatures beyond 30°C pose severe risks to human health, but the hard physiological limit comes at prolonged exposure (about 6-8 hours) to wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C. At this point, people can experience heat strokes, organ failure, and in extreme cases, even death. 

Climate change and deadly heat 

Globally, around 30% of people are exposed to lethal humid heat. This could reach as much as 50% by 2100 due to global warming. To date, the climate has warmed around 1.3°C as a result of human activity, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels. And along with the extra heat, with every 1°C rise the air can hold up to 7% more moisture. 

A comprehensive evaluation of global weather station data reveals that the frequency of extreme humid heat has more than doubled since 1979, with several wet-bulb exceedances of 31-33°C. Another recent study predicts a surge in the frequency and geographic spread of extreme heat events, even at 1.5°C warming.   

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What this shows is that the humid tropics including monsoon belts are all careening towards the 35°C threshold, which is very worrying for countries like Pakistan. The city of Jacobabad has already breached 35°C wet bulb temperatures many times. More areas of the country are likely to be exposed to such life-threatening conditions more often due to climate change.   

At 1.5°C of warming, much of South Asia, large parts Sahelian Africa, inland Latin America and northern Australia could be subject to at least one day per year of lethal heat. If the world gets to 3°C, this exposure explodes, covering most of South Asia, large parts of Eastern China and Southeast Asia, much of central and west Africa, most of Latin America and Australia and significant parts of the southeastern USA and the Gulf of Mexico.  

Areas of the world that will experience at least one day of deadly heat per year at different levels of warming   

Source: ScienceAdvances 

 Even at 1.5°C of warming, there will be high exposure to lethal heat in large regions where billions presently live. This terrible threat to human life calls for urgent action to limit warming and help at risk communities adapt.  

Adapting to hard limits 

 While 35°C can prove deadly, one study suggests a 32°C wet-bulb threshold as the hard limit for labour. More realistic, human-centred models found this overly optimistic, as direct exposure and other vulnerability factors were ignored. Vulnerable groups including unskilled labourers would be most at risk of losing their income.  

In densely populated urban centres, lethal humid heat is not just a future projection but a current reality. This calls for urgent adaptation measures which integrate the risk of deadly heat into urban planning, public health, early-warning systems and emergency response.  

Investments in green spaces, heat-resilient buildings and urban cooling are vital adaptation strategies. Community initiatives like awareness campaigns, indigenous cooling strategies and local heat action plans are also essential. Households could consider investing in cooling technologies or migrating – options mostly available to the wealthy.  

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As climate change makes lethal humid heat a growing threat in some of the world’s most populous areas, more attention must be paid to understanding its risks – especially in vulnerable regions with huge data gaps. This demands a multidimensional response that combines scientific research, policymaking and community engagement.  

The potential scale and level of risk to human life also reinforces the importance of ensuring that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C global warming limit is met. To do this, we need to halve emissions by 2030. Countries should therefore strengthen their 2030 emissions targets in line with the warming limit as they prepare equally ambitious 2035 targets in updated NDCs. 

The Pakistan heatwave is a terrible reminder of this often-underestimated threat. We must act now to limit warming while we adapt to the growing danger of deadly heat if we are to avoid potentially wide-reaching tragedies in the future.  

The post Developing countries need support adapting to deadly heat appeared first on Climate Home News.

As summer turned to winter, some parts of the country have seen snow. “For children and old age people without shelter, it’s terrible,” said Concern Worldwide’s Sherzada Khan.

Young women and girls are still “forced to live without roof and walls,” he added, putting them at risk of sexual assault.

On top of this, he said “[a] severe food security crisis [is] looming now and will be there until the next harvest”.

People affected by the flood queue up for relief items (Pic: Abdul Majeed/EU civil protection and humanitarian aid)

With stagnant flood water still around in some places, malaria is rife at the time of year it should be minimal, according to Ed Taylor from Médecins Sans Frontières.

Taylor and his colleagues are giving out bed nets to vulnerable people to keep the mosquitos out. But, he says, this needs to be done on a bigger scale by the UN.

“We haven’t scaled up nearly enough to meet the size of the challenge,” he said.

Asif Sherazi, head of Islamic Relief Pakistan, agreed. “Humanitarians have failed in this disaster”, he told Climate Home.

Several relief workers involved in the response to the floods said this failure was partly because the cash-strapped UN cut back its humanitarian team in Pakistan just before the floods hit.

Ocha’s budget cuts

The UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) has headquarters in Geneva and New York and staff in 60 countries, mostly in low and middle income countries.

Ocha has staff in 60 countries, mostly in the global south

When disaster strikes – through storms, earthquakes, war or disease – its job is to raise money from around the world and coordinate an international relief effort.

This job has been getting harder, as climate change kicks in. The number of climate-related disasters like floods and storms in the 2010s was double what it was in the 1980s.

Climate-related disasters doubled in the 2010s compared to the 1980s (Photo: Ocha/Screenshot)

While needs have soared, the amount of money Ocha gets from wealthy governments – about 95% of its total income – has stagnated. In 2015, it got $334 million. By 2020, this had dropped to $307m.

Since 2020, as the Covid-19 pandemic and energy inflation took an economic toll, several rich countries tightened their belts further.

As Ocha’s budget fell, so did its staff numbers. The organisation employed 2,300 people in 2015 and now employs 2,000.

Ocha in Pakistan

Pakistan was not spared from these cutbacks. At the end of 2021, Ocha downgraded its presence from a full "country office" to a "humanitarian advisory team" reporting to Ocha's regional office in Bangkok, Thailand.

That meant its team in Islamabad didn't produce a humanitarian response plan for 2022, as they had for the years before.

In 2016, Ocha had around 35 staff in Pakistan and a budget of more than $5m. By 2021, its budget was $1.1m and in 2022 it employed seven people.

In September 2022, large parts of the country were covered with water - not all of these flood waters have yet receded (Photo: Abdul Majeed/EU civil protection and humanitarian aid)

So when flooding started in July 2022, it had a netball team's worth of people in the country to survey the damage. Ocha sent staff over from Bangkok and elsewhere, upping the headcount to 25-30 people by the end of the year.

But Abid Suleri, who sits on the board of directors of Pakistan's National Disaster Risk Management Fund, told Climate Home that cuts to Ocha in Pakistan "did have an impact" on its response.

Anam Zeb, who worked at the National Disaster Risk Management Fund when the floods hit, said Ocha was "not as visible as it was before", particularly in carrying out needs assessments.

Another humanitarian, who works with Ocha and so did not want to be named, said: "Ocha did not have the presence in Pakistan to co-ordinate everything." They added that they did not have the right "speed and scale".

Fundraising failures

In particular, they said Ocha did not do enough to raise funds. "For funding, you need to do some extra efforts," they said, " you use your media contacts, you use your other contacts."

Floods started in July and intensified in August. Ocha put out an appeal on 30 August for $160 million. That was quickly met by foreign governments - but fell well short of what survivors needed.

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A spokesperson for Ocha said it was put together just six days after flooding escalated and "was therefore produced using a preliminary understanding of the situation".

On 19 September, Ocha upped this appeal to $820 million. “We need all of these funds, and we need them quickly,” said the UN's humanitarian coordinator for Pakistan Julien Harneis.

But the world's media quickly moved on and governments lost interest. UN data suggests $262 million has been promised so far and less has actually reached the ground.

Charities have responded by rationing essential supplies. A UN report found that NGOs were having to hand out just one tarpaulin for each household to shelter from the sun and rain rather than the usual two.

Where Ocha goes next

At the start of the year, Ocha upgraded its presence in Pakistan back to a full country office. But, with a limited budget, that will mean cutbacks elsewhere.

Ocha's office in the Philippines, for example, was downgraded at the same time as Pakistan's. That's despite Ocha's 2020 annual report describing the south-east Asian nation as "one of the world's most natural-hazard prone countries".

A spokesperson for Ocha said it "continues to enhance the coordination and effective and efficient delivery of humanitarian assistance, together with humanitarian organisations".

"To implement its mandate, Ocha relies heavily on voluntary contributions, mostly from governments," the spokesperson added.

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Flooding returned stronger every year since, upending the city in both 2021 and 2022. “We never know what kind of damage to expect when it rains,” said Razia Sunny, who lives by one of Karachi’s nullahs – narrow channels that drain wastewater from the city to the sea.

“Residents here have gotten sick because of the waste flooding into our homes during urban flooding, we’ve even had people slip and fall [into the nullahs],” Imran Gill, another resident of the informal settlement, told Climate Home News.

Since 2017, the World Bank has poured millions of dollars into Karachi. The city, population 16 million, is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. But come monsoon season much of the city is submerged – not least during the extreme flooding of 2022.

A major problem is trash clogging the nullahs, so stormwater overflows. Sweep was supposed to help by improving solid waste management, but two years into the five-year project, there is no sign of progress. Less than 3% of its $100 million budget has been spent, and none of it on new infrastructure.

Slum clearance

Project officials took the promise of funding as a cue to clear slums alongside the waterways. The provincial authority demolished thousands of homes without, residents say, any consultation or plan to find them somewhere else to live.

Climate Home reviewed dozens of official documents, interviewed officials inside the projects and visited the sites affected by flooding. In the sites near Karachi’s sewage infrastructure, Climate Home found several cases where residents of informal housing got injured or even died during extreme floods in 2020 and 2022.

When human rights organisations raised concerns about the demolitions, the World Bank distanced itself from the project.

The Sweep project should have executed millions of US dollars (green line) by 2022, but the actual disbursed amount (in blue) was much lower (Photo: World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Dec. 2022)

Government officials insist things are not going too badly. “We’re only delayed by three or fourth months,” Sweep director Zubair Channa said.

The World Bank seemingly agrees: its project reports in March 2021 and November 2021 declared progress “satisfactory”, even though no work had been completed on the ground. This rating changed to “moderately satisfactory” for both the June 2022 and December 2022 reports, after further inaction.

In response to Climate Home’s request for comment, the World Bank defended the project and said the consultancy was “fairly advanced and expected to deliver their outputs soon”.

“Based on the current schedule, we expect the construction of the waste disposal facility and transfer stations to commence in early 2023,” said the bank’s press office.

Karachi’s nullahs carry waste from the city to the sea, and are often surrounded by informal settlements. (Photo: Shakeel Afridi)

This is a climate adaptation issue. Global heating “likely increased” the intensity of monsoon rains in 2022, when flooding hit 33 million people across the country, an international group of scientists found. More extreme events are expected under a 2C warming scenario.

The money trail

So what has happened to the promised funding? The money comes in the form of loans to the provincial government of Sindh.

Among a few feasibility studies and some operational costs, documents show the authorities have so far spent $91,891 (which at the time was converted to almost PKR 16 million) on furniture. An official source associated with Sweep, who asked not to be named, said the number was too high and seemed out of place.

A report of operational costs by the Sweep project shows more than $91,000 spent on furniture. (Photo: Solid Waste Emergency and Efficiency Project – Procurement Plan by Zubair Ahmed Channa)

“We’re a poor country; we can’t afford to spend like this on operational costs, not when that money will be paid back by citizens who already can’t afford it,” said architect and urban planner Dr Noman Ahmed, chairperson of Department of Architecture and Planning at the NED University Karachi.

The Sindh Government’s procurement plan earmarks $8 million for equipment ranging from bins to waste collection vehicles. Another $30 million is destined for implementation “works”. This money has yet to be disbursed.

On all aspects of these expenses, bank oversight is meant to come once the project is concluded. Yet related projects raise red flags.

In November, the Sindh High Court barred the provincial government from awarding any more contracts under the World Bank’s Competitive and Liveable City of Karachi (Click) project, citing a lack of transparency over where the money was going.

Fahad Saeed, South Asia and Middle East lead at the policy NGO Climate Analytics, said: “Pakistan needs to do some introspection as to why they were unable to tap into the funds that were available. Was their own house in order to access these funds?”

In 2021, the world’s governments agreed at COP26 to double the amount of international adaptation finance by 2025, which stands at around $20 billion per year.

Why does Karachi flood?

Decades of neglect in Karachi’s sewage and waste disposal systems created the perfect recipe for flooding in the city. Every year, come monsoon season, the city’s debilitated drainage system clogs and water overflows.

More than 6 million people in Karachi live in informal settlements, many of which have encroached the city’s nullahs – the riverbeds that carry waste from one end of the city all the way to the sea.

These populations are the first victims of urban flooding, and also major contributors to the problem.

Gujjar nullah residents use a community-funded makeshift bridge to get around. The bridge can be torn down at any time by authorities. (Photo: Shakeel Afridi)

“In 2019, when the Sindh Government took the issue to the World Bank, we realised that there was a serious requirement to clean the nullahs once or twice a year,” Sweep director Channa told Climate Home News.

After bad urban flooding in 2020, the Sindh Government reached out to the World Bank to speed up the cleaning of nullahs. “We asked to be allowed to work and they agreed, so despite Sweep not having been signed yet work began, and we were to get the money back through retroactive funding,” Channa said.

The World Bank announced the decision to finance these efforts in December 2020, saying they would “improve solid waste management services in Karachi” and “upgrade critical solid waste infrastructure”. This would help to reduce floods “especially in vulnerable communities around drainage and waste collection sites.”

The reality on the ground was different.

Destroyed homes

Instead of protecting the vulnerable, the provincial authorities started by bulldozing homes that had been built without planning permission.

The World Bank denied responsibility. “There were meetings between civilians and WB officials, who claimed to us that they had never sanctioned any encroachment removal,” Zahid Farooq, senior manager at Karachi’s Urban Resource Centre, told Climate Home.

KBT PRESS RELEASE
In their recent correspondence with KBT, World Bank has confirmed that they will neither retroactively nor prospectively finance any nullah cleaning activities because affectees have still not been involved in the rehabilitation process pic.twitter.com/sk2dqLsl1U

— Karachi Bachao Tehreek (@StopEvictionKHI) July 9, 2021

The World Bank’s press office told Climate Home their projects “will be prohibited from financing any future investments on the affected nullahs. Sweep will not retroactively or prospectively finance any nullah cleaning works, or any studies related to the nullahs.”

Then, in 2022, extreme flooding hit informal settlements the hardest, turning the water filled area around the nullahs into quicksand, according to resident Imran Gill. “No one has ever died because of the nullahs before all this construction took place. And yet, the area has now seen several people lose their lives.”

Bhutta Masih died in flooding this year when the ground beneath his feet went out. He leaves behind five children and his widow, Parveen. His youngest son helped pull his father’s body out with ropes and has found it difficult to recover from the trauma.

“He used to have a job but lost it. He hasn’t been okay mentally since that day. We can’t afford this,” Parveen said.

Bhutta Masih’s widow Parveen stands next to the barricades that were added after his
death (Photo: Shakeel Afridi)

Owners of the broken homes are not permitted to rebuild what remains of their homes – even by hanging curtains.

But some have nowhere else to go. Ruksana and Sadayat, a couple in their 80s who have lived most of their lives on the nullahs, used broken bricks they found to do some repair work.

“We know they can break this down, but we have no other choice but to rebuild it. We can’t afford the rent [elsewhere], and when they come to tear it down, they will tear it down. What can we do?” Ruksana asked.

Sweep’s future

Despite all its troubles, Sweep director Channa told Climate Home that Karachi’s flooding wasn’t as bad as previous years.

Urban planning expert Ahmed said this was “completely untrue” and infrastructure under the WB’s Competitive and Livable City of Karachi (Click) project had caused flooding to worsen.

“They’ve done improvement projects, for example, the green belts, which themselves created bottlenecks,” he said. “It seems that this was nothing more than an emergency cleaning effort with no long-term thought process for solutions. When the WB is intervening with such a large portfolio, why aren’t they providing a plan to help the people who are being displaced?

Ruksana and Sadayat sit in what used to be their living room (Photo: Shakeel Afridi)

Lawyer and activist Abira Ashfaq has worked with the affected communities. She said the World Bank failed to use its influence on the Sindh government to help people living on the nullahs.

“We filed a complaint with the WB, and they deemed our case eligible. We held five meetings with WB officials and with the stakeholders,” she recalled. “Nevertheless, they distanced themselves and said their project was only meant to address waste disposal, and they eventually dismissed our complaints, claiming no responsibility,” she said.

The result of this interaction was that the nullah cleaning work was once again thrown back to the Sindh government, which has now handed it over to the Frontier Works Organization (FWO), the engineering wing of the Pakistan Army.

For now, residents can expect little more in the way of flood aid than tarpaulins from local NGOs to cover their damaged homes. They rely on each other and wait for the next flood.

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Officials from some 40 countries as well as private donors and international financial institutions are gathering for a meeting in Geneva as Islamabad seeks help covering around half of a total recovery bill of $16.3 billion.

Waters are still receding from the floods caused by monsoon rains and melting glaciers which killed at least 1,700 people and displaced around 8 million.

Pakistan Information Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb sent a tweet saying that pledges had reached $8.57 billion – more than the $8bn it had initially sought.

The Pakistani government will provide $8bn from its own funds towards the “resilient Pakistan” programme.

The first plenary of day-long Geneva conference culminated in generous outpouring of int’l community, EU pledged $93 million, Germany $88 million, China $100 million, IDB $4.2 Billion, WB $2 billion, Japan $77 million, ADB $1.5 billion #ResilientPakistan

— Marriyum Aurangzeb (@Marriyum_A) January 9, 2023

Of the $8.6bn of international funding, around $7bn came from multilateral development banks. Among the donors were the Islamic Development Bank ($4.2 bln), the World Bank ($2 bln), the Asian Development Bank ($1.5 bln).

Governments promised smaller amounts. France pledged $0.35bn, the US and China pledged $0.1bn each and Japan, Germany and the European Union made lesser commitments.

Shelter needed

Sherzada Khan leads the Concern NGO’s work in Pakistan. He told Climate Home on Friday that shelter was the top priority for Pakistanis displaced by the floods. “It’s a chilly winter and for children and old age people without shelter, it’s terrible,” he said.

He added that young women are forced to live without roofs and walls, which puts them at risk of sexual assault. He added that there is a severe food crisis “looming now” which will be a threat until the next harvest.

World Bank moots stronger strategic focus on climate action

Money promised previously by donor governments has been distributed slowly.

Earlier, United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres called for massive investments to help Pakistan recover from what he called a “climate disaster of monumental scale”.

“Pakistan is doubly victimized by climate chaos and a morally bankrupt global financial system,” he added. He later elaborated saying the current system was “biased” towards the rich countries who conceived it.

Additional funding is crucial to Pakistan amid growing concerns about its ability to pay for imports such as energy and food and to meet sovereign debt obligations abroad.

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Pakistan’s finance minister is meeting an International Monetary Fund delegation on the sidelines of the Geneva meeting.

‘A new lifeline’

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the country was committed to the IMF programme but that he was asking the IMF for “breathing space” to meet its commitments, without elaborating.

In comments to the conference earlier on Monday, Sharif said Islamabad was willing to provide around half of the $16.3 billion bill but wanted donors to contribute the rest.

“I am asking for a new lifeline for people who need to power our economy and re-enter the 21st century with a future that is protected from such extreme risks to human security,” he said.

Millions of homes, tens of thousands of schools as well as thousands of kilometres of roads and railways still need to be rebuilt, the UN says.

Efforts to secure funding for the initial emergency phase of the disaster response were disappointing with a humanitarian aid package of $816 million less than half funded, UN data showed.

United Nations’ Development Programme administrator Achim Steiner said the next phase of the Pakistan response represented a “monumental moment of reckoning for the entire world”.

The post Donors pledge over $8bn to rebuild Pakistan after floods – official appeared first on Climate Home News.

But the wealthy nations who bear most responsibility for causing climate change have yet to deliver all the funds they have promised, let alone enough funds to cover the damage done.

Immediately after the floods, Pakistan’s planning minister Ahsan Iqbal said a conservative estimate of the damage done was $10bn. “It is a preliminary estimate likely to be far greater,” he said.

Despite this, Pakistan and the United Nations (UN) put out an appeal on 30 August for just $160m, a figure roughly 60 times smaller than Iqbal’s estimate for damages.

Oxfam's humanitarian lead Magnus Corfixen told Climate Home this figure was low because the UN's assesment "didn't include some of the worst affected districts as they were not hit by the first floods".

Last week, the UN upped its appeal to $816m. “We need all of these funds, and we need them quickly,” said the UN's humanitarian coordinator for Pakistan Julien Harneis.

UN data analysed by Climate Home shows that rich countries have so far failed to deliver even enough aid to meet the UN's original appeal. This data relies on donor countries to report to it so is not comprehensive but it is used by the UN and updated daily.

A UN spokesperson told Climate Home that governments have pledged more than $160m, but the data shows they have only actually delivered $51m. They have signed contracts for a further $39m.

Of this, only $28m comes directly from governments, with $26m of that from the US government.

A further $16m comes from a group of British charities called the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC), whose funding comes from the government and from ordinary citizens.

The UN's Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) donated a further $7m. They are funded by governments, mainly in northern Europe, and distribute funds to humanitarian relief as they see fit.

This lack of funding is having an impact on the ground. Gul Wali Khan leads the Catholic Relief Service's response in Pakistan. "It's a couple of months now," he said, "and assistance is not coming to the speed or to the level which is required."

After a recent visit to an affected area, Khan said: "There are 7.9 million people displaced, mostly standing on the road side. On one side it's a sea and the other side it's the sea and the vehicles cross in the middle, so there's not much privacy, not even a latrine available."

Khan said his NGO is prioritising handing out cash, trucking in clean drinking water, building latrines and providing shelter with funds part-provided by the US government.

Displaced people take refuge on the roadside in the village of Thatta (Photo: Islamic Relief)

If he had more money, he said he would expand this help to more areas of Pakistan and would try to enable more children to return to school, by fixing the sanitation in flood-damaged schools and by building temporary schools. UN data says no money has been donated for education.

Khan is not the only one making tough choices. A UN report found that "enormous needs" and "extremely limited resources" meant NGOs were having to hand out just one tarpaulin for households to shelter from the sun and rain under rather than two.

The World Food Programme's James Belgrave told Climate Home that the WFP, government and NGOs had assessed hunger across the whole of Pakistan, based on measures like how many people are skipping meals.

They prioritise the areas where hunger is most severe and, he said, "based on how much funding is forthcoming, we'd be able to scale up and provide more food to more people".

Funded by USAID, Concern Worldwide hands out cash in Pakistan (Photo: Concern Worldwide)

Sherzada Khan is Concern's Pakistan country director. He said his NGO has also had to do some "very unfortunate prioritisation" because the money is "insufficient".

He said the response has focused on giving out cash and, while this kind of "flexible assistance is very welcomed", people need more long-term help.

The floods wrecked many crops which were about to be harvested. If the next harvest is to be a success, farmers need seeds and fertilisers to plant crops in the next few weeks, he said.

With Pakistan being the world's fourth-biggest rice exporter, failure will bump up already high prices globally.

Children fill up water from a truck. (Photo: Action against hunger)

Needs on the ground have grown and changed over the last two months, Khan said.

Water-borne diseases have spread among displaced people and now, with winter coming, respiratory illnesses are likely to rise.

"Winterisation kits", like warm clothes for children, are also now needed as the country cools.

"We understand that [donor governments] will have their own mechanisms and bureaucratic procedures and administrative hurdles...but if you translate the impact of [relief] not hitting the ground timely and efficiently, it’s going to cost a lot more,” said Khan.

None of the humanitarian groups Climate Home spoke to said the slow pace of the donor response was unusual. "Funding for these things can often come fairly slow, it takes a while to trickle in", said Belgrave.

One solution, according to the International Institute for Environment and Development's Clare Shakya, is to scale up the CERF. While the damage caused by disasters has soared, its funding has flat-lined.

Donations to the CERF (Photo: CERF/Screenshot)

"Countries suffering loss and damage as a result of climate impacts that they can’t adapt to, should receive finance ideally in advance of a forecast emergency or at least within days of it happening," she said.

Shakya added that countries should be able to access sovereign insurance for disasters which are likely to happen once in every ten years or so and that Pakistan's lenders should suspend its debt repayments.

Pakistan has pled for debt relief with prime minister Shehbaz Sharif warning "all hell will break loose" without it. But his government dropped this call after credit rating agency Moody's cut its rating, meaning it will have to pay more to borrow.

Climate Action Network's Harjeet Singh said: "The response to Pakistan floods is a clear example of how impacted communities are now at the mercy of individual pledges that may or may not be delivered".

He called for a loss and damage financing facility to be set up, a key demand of many developing nations in climate talks which is set to dominate Cop27 next month.

EU outlines funding options to help climate victims recover

This would assess the needs after a climate-caused catastrophe and request specific amounts of money from governments based on factors like their contribution to climate change.

A spokesperson for Canada's development minister Harjit Sajjan said that the government was "ensuring that those funds are delivered in a timely manner to enable partners to respond to urgent needs" and "we remain in close contact with our humanitarian partners and continue to look at ways to provide support to the people of Pakistan.”

A spokesperson for the UK's foreign, commonwealth and development office said: “We have committed over £16m ($17.7m) of funding to deliver life-saving aid to those most affected by these devastating floods.” Asked if this includes DEC funding, the spokesperson had not responded at the time of publication.

This article was updated on 14 October to include a table showing pledges made against pledges delivered.

The post Funds for Pakistan flood relief come too little, too late appeared first on Climate Home News.

With winter just weeks away, half a million people are living in camps after being displaced by the flood, which destroyed 1.7 million homes. So far, the government’s priority has been to deliver food, tents and cash to the victims. The floods have killed 1,481 people since mid-June and affected 33 million.

“We will do our best to financially help you so that you can rebuild homes” and return to a normal life, prime minister Shahbaz Sharif told several families living in tents and makeshift homes in the town of Suhbatpur in Baluchistan. “Those who lost homes and crops will get compensation from the government,” he said in his televised comments.

Sharif also told dozens of school children, who were studying in a tent with help from the UN children’s agency Unicef in the town of Suhbatpur, that they will get a new school in the next two months.

“Pakistan never witnessed such huge climate-induced devastation,” Sharif told a gathering of lawyers in Islamabad on Wednesday. “It was painful to see inundated villages, towns and cities.”

Sharif said the winter season will start in Pakistan after 15 days, and “then another challenge for the flood victims will be how to survive in the harsh cold” as currently they were living in tents in summer.

Even providing clean drinking water to flood-affected people has become a challenge, he said.

Counting the damage

The floods have destroyed 70% of wheat, cotton and other crops in Pakistan. Initially, Pakistan estimated that the floods caused $10 billion in damages, but now the government says the economic toll is far greater. The United Nations has urged the international community, especially those responsible for climate change, to send more help to Pakistan.

The monsoon rains have swept away entire villages, bridges and roads, leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. At one point, a third of the country’s territory was inundated with water.

Multiple experts have blamed climate change for unprecedented rain-related damages in Pakistan.

Also Wednesday, Pakistan’s minister for climate change, Sherry Rehman, told a gathering of lawmakers from the Asia Pacific in the capital, Islamabad that right now the entire world is facing a threat from climate change which, she said, “knows no border”.

She called for reducing emissions to save other countries from the damage that her country is facing now.

Meanwhile, the first planeload of aid from Saudi Arabia arrived in Pakistan overnight.

So far, UN agencies and various countries, including the United States, have sent about 90 planeloads of aid.

On Wednesday, Julien Harneis, UN resident coordinator in Pakistan, told a news conference that member states had committed $150 million in response to an emergency appeal for $160 million.

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If “massive” is the word for the heatwave losses we experienced here in Pakistan, I struggle to find an appropriate one for the losses incurred from the ongoing monsoon floods. “Colossal”, “mammoth” and “gigantic” don’t do justice to what we are witnessing.

Before now, 2010 marked the year with the worst flooding in Pakistan’s history, directly affecting an estimated 14-20 million people, and killed over 1700. Nearly 1.1 million homes were damaged or destroyed, causing $9.7 billion in damages in 46 of the country’s 135 districts.

This year’s monsoon season is not over yet and the scale of destruction from the flooding is already expected to be far higher than 2010. One third of the country is suffering from floods: 30 million people.

The critical difference between the two is that the 2010 flood was mainly a riverine flood originating from the north of the country, providing a considerable lag time for regions downstream to take evacuation measures.

This time the deluge is caused by torrential rains which began in mid-June, seeing flooding outside areas that are usually prepared for such events. This is compounded by the no-less devastating riverine flooding, which has already caused the collapse of two dams in the north of the country.

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As of 29 August, Pakistan’s national disaster risk management authority estimates over 1,100 casualties. Over one million homes have so far been damaged or destroyed, 800,000 livestock have been killed, 3500 km of roads have been damaged and 162 bridges have collapsed. The economic damages are likely to go well above the $9.7 billion in damages from the 2010 floods.

Pakistan is at its nadir of political stability. Thirteen political parties joined forces to oust the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government earlier this year, after which PTI resigned from the national assembly. PTI, however, remains in power at the provincial level and is ruling over 75% of the country’s population. In a recently-called all parties conference, PTI was not even invited, a reflection of the political bitterness, even during the time of worst flooding of country’s history.

One doesn’t need to think hard to understand how this would affect the relief activities carried out in the provinces where PTI is in power. This aspect is important to highlight because in May, the Pakistan Meteorological Department forecast a more than average rainfall in the country, warning of flash floods. But because of the political scenario, this information fell on deaf ears, including the country’s media.

To make the situation worse, Pakistan’s economy is also crippled. Pakistan was kneeling before the IMF to revive a bail-out package, including a disbursement of about $1.1 billion, to save the country from going bankrupt, funds which were released by IMF in the days after the flooding started.

With estimates of $10 billion in economic losses from the 2010 floods, a larger scale of devastation would lead to even higher level of losses.

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The record-breaking heatwave in March-April this year which gripped large parts of the country, and now the worst flooding in history, are back-to-back calamities which present a classic case of what we call “loss and damage” in climate circles. Loss and damage is the loss of lives, land and infrastructure from climate impacts that cannot be recovered, nor adapted to.

A recent climate attribution study has concluded that climate change has made a 2022 heatwave across India and Pakistan 30 times more likely compared to a world without climate change. It is too early to state unequivocally (as additional studies will be conducted once the monsoon is over) but climate scientists believe that climate change will most likely have had a role in increasing the intensity of the present flooding. It certainly fits with the models and predictions of climate change driving more intense monsoons.

Flood affected people stand in a long line with utensils to get food distributed by Pakistani Army troops in a flood-hit area in Rajanpur, district of Punjab, Pakistan, Saturday 27 August 2022 (AP Photo/Asim Tanveer)

For a long time now, developing countries have been asking for a separate finance facility for loss and damage in the international climate negotiations under the UNFCCC.

So far, there has been resistance from the developed world to talk about the costs of loss and damage. At Cop26 in Glasgow last year a finance facility could not be agreed, despite a push from developing countries, and only a formal dialogue on loss and damage made it into the final outcome of the negotiations.

Loss and damage is likely to be a hot topic during Cop27 negotiations in Egypt this year. In the wake of this year’s record-breaking climate catastrophes it has already witnessed, it would make sense that Pakistan, as the chair of the largest group of developing countries – the G77 plus China – could make a strong case to push developed countries to agree on the establishment of a loss and damage finance facility.

This flooding must also be a wakeup call for the global community to speed up its efforts towards climate action. Pakistan emits less than 1% of global greenhouse emissions, but it is bearing a massive burden from climate change. And the large majority of the people affected are the poorest of the poor.

The devastation faced by Pakistan now is a mere precursor of what we may see at higher levels of warming. Even at the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C warming limit, some of the impact of climate extremes will go beyond the tolerable limits of human and natural systems.

As the world continues on its go-slow in getting out of fossil fuels and decarbonising the global economy, the losses and damage will continue to mount, and countries like Pakistan – and those others suffering damage they cannot pay for – need financial support.

Dr Fahad Saeed is a climate impacts scientist at Climate Analytics, based in Islamabad. This article was originally published on Climate Analytics’ blog.

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Pakistani authorities backed by the military, rescuers and volunteers have been battling the aftermath of the floods that have affected more than 33 million people, or one in seven Pakistanis.

Although rains stopped three days ago and flood waters in some areas were receding, large areas remain underwater. Rescuers were evacuating stranded people to safer ground, including makeshift tent camps have sprung up along highways, inundated villages and towns.

According to initial government estimates, the devastation caused $10 billion in damage to the economy. “It is a preliminary estimate likely to be far greater,” planning minister Ahsan Iqbal told The Associated Press.

His comment came hours before the United Nations and Pakistan were to launch an appeal in Islamabad for help.

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A day earlier, the International Monetary Fund’s executive board approved the release of a much-awaited $1.17 billion for Pakistan.

Pakistan and the IMF originally signed a large bailout accord in 2019. But the release of a $1.17 billion tranche had been on hold since earlier this year, when the IMF expressed concern about Pakistan’s compliance with the deal’s terms under the government of former prime minister Imran Khan, who was ousted through a no-confidence vote in the parliament in April.

Last week, the United Nations in a statement said it has allocated $3 million for UN aid agencies and their partners in Pakistan to respond to the floods. This money will be used for health, nutrition, food security, as well as water and sanitation services in flood-affected areas, focusing on the most vulnerable.

On Monday, climate minister Sherry Rehman and meteorologists told the AP that new monsoons were expected in September. Monsoons have hit earlier and more heavily than usual since the start of summer, officials say — most recently with massive rains last week that affected nearly the entire country.

Pakistan is accustomed to monsoon rains and flooding, Rehman said, but not like this.

Several scientists say the record-breaking flooding in Pakistan has all the hallmarks of a catastrophe juiced by climate change.

“This year Pakistan has received the highest rainfall in at least three decades. So far this year the rain is running at more than 780% above average levels,” said Abid Qaiyum Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute and a member of Pakistan’s Climate Change Council. “Extreme weather patterns are turning more frequent in the region and Pakistan is not an exception.”

Pakistan struggles to rebuild after deadly flash floods

Pakistan saw similar flooding and devastation in 2010 that killed nearly 2,000 people. But the government didn’t implement plans to prevent future flooding by preventing construction and homes in flood prone areas and river beds, said Suleri of the country’s Climate Change Council.

Floods and monsoon rains have damaged one million houses and affected 33 million people.

It reflects how poorer countries often pay the price for climate change largely caused by more industrialized nations. Since 1959, Pakistan is responsible for only 0.4% of the world’s historic CO2 emissions. The US is responsible for 21.5%, China for 16.5% and the EU 15%.

According to the National Disaster Management Authority, at least 498,000 people in the country of 220 million are in relief camps after being displaced.

Many more displaced flood victims are believed to be living with relatives, friends or out in the open, without shelter.

Pakistan started receiving international aid this week, and more planes carrying aid from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates landed at an airport near Islamabad on Tuesday, according to a statement released by the military.

It said Chinese planes carrying aid will also arrive in Pakistan later Tuesday.

Pakistan has also deployed at least 6,500 soldiers to help authorities in rescue and relief operations.

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Abnormally heavy monsoon rains led to flash floods in July which killed at least 550 people across Pakistan, with rural communities in the impoverished southwestern province Balochistan hardest hit. At least 77 children have lost their lives and more than 500 people were injured in the floods.

More than 34,000 homes were deluged and 977km of road infrastructure and 61 bridges were destroyed.

Zia Salik, head of fundraising at Islamic Relief UK, was in Balochistan when the floods hit. 

“The flash floods destroyed and demolished entire villages. [These are] impoverished villages, built entirely out of mud bricks… they had no chance against the heavy floodwaters,” Salik said, adding that 85-year-olds he spoke to said they had never seen that much water in their lives. “Most people have lost their livestock and their land – they will not be able to grow anything until next year.”

Villagers raised the alarm which led to mass evacuations, but there were no early warning systems in place, said Salik. “Considering the size of the floods, the loss of lives has been relatively low.”

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In Balochistan alone, over 150,000 people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, according to Islamic Relief. 

“I spoke to families who had not washed themselves for over a week because all water pipes were destroyed by the floods,” Salik said.

Aid groups are on the ground distributing tents and food packs, but a lack of media coverage and aid cuts means there is little funding available to help communities rebuild, he said.

“Ordinarily the UK would allocate significant funds to such a disaster but I haven’t seen any announcement,” said Salik, attributing the silence to the government’s decision to freeze international aid over the summer.

Pakistan was the biggest recipient of UK bilateral aid 2015-19. It dropped to seventh place after the UK government decided in 2020 to scale back the aid budget from 0.7% to 0.5% of national income.

The US, Japan and Germany have also been major aid contributors to Pakistan in recent years, along with multilateral agencies.

Three children walk among the rubble in a village in Balochistan, Pakistan, which was badly hit by flash floods (Photo: Islamic Relief Pakistan)

Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, according to the Climate Change Risk Index 2021 by NGO German Watch.

This past month was the wettest in three decades, according to Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority, Reuters reports. Balochistan received 305% more rain than the annual average, according to the agency.

“Authorities in Pakistan have traditionally focused more on flood management and less on disaster risk reduction,” Aisha Khan, executive director for Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change in Islamabad, told Climate Home News.

“This is largely due to lack of resources for taking necessary adaptive measures and also due to inability to anticipate the sudden onset and intensity of floods,” she said. 

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In its latest climate plan, Pakistan estimated it needs $7-14 billion annually until 2050 for adaptation investments, primarily in infrastructure.

“Without access to climate finance for adaptation this will remain a recurring challenge beyond the country’s coping capacity,” Khan said. 

“Impact-based forecasting can help but indicative modeling is not precise and there is a limit to preparing for anticipatory adaptation as the scale, scope and intensity of climate induced disasters is highly unpredictable,” she said.

The most urgent adaptation needs are resilient infrastructure, which will require hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars of investment, said Salik. Houses should be rebuilt with concrete foundations and steel girders, not with mud bricks which can be washed away, and the government should invest in dams, walls and channels to divert floodwaters, he said. “The real challenge is the infrastructure cost.”

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The former cricketing star launched the first phase of the “Ten Billion Tree Tsunami” in 2019 to increase forest cover and mitigate impact of climate change on the South Asian nation of 220 million.

The programme was progressing fast, with 1.5 billion trees planted by March this year against a target of 3.2 billion by 2023, but this could hit a snag. Climate action has not historically been a priority for incoming prime minister Shehbaz Sharif or the parties he will rely on to govern.

Malik Amin Aslam, the former climate change minister under Khan, told Climate Home News the tree-planting programme was not a luxury but a necessity for Pakistan, urging the new government to continue with it.

“Climate change remains oblivious to political circumstances in Pakistan, therefore, projects like these need to be above the political divisions,” Aslam said.

The government had allocated 125 billion Pakistani rupees to the scheme ($680 million), of which around 30 billion rupees had been spent to plant 1.5 billion saplings at 9,500 sites across Pakistan.

“Prime Minister Imran Khan kept the project at the top priority even in Covid-19 times and provided all the required funds for it,” said Aslam. “The initiative has helped develop a green image of Pakistan globally.”

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Khan was due to stay in office until August 2023, but an opposition alliance of ten parties toppled his government on Monday 11 April after proving their majority in the parliament.

The country listed the project in its contribution to the Paris Agreement, estimating it would store 500 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2040, if fully implemented. In 2018, national emissions were 489.87 MtCO2e.

“We were in the final stages to secure around one billion dollar [$1 billion] financing for the project from the World Bank under its nature policy based lending,” the ex-minister said. “But this will certainly be at risk now after dismissal of our government.”

Experts have lauded the project as a “game changer” to boost the country’s forest cover and meet international obligations to cut greenhouse gas emissions. They have also demanded an audit of the funds for transparency over how taxpayers’ money has been spent.

“This massive tree plantation scheme is a flagship programme of the outgoing government and it must continue at the same pace to fulfill our national and international commitments,” said Aisha Khan, executive director for Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change in Islamabad.

She said the project had helped increase the country’s forest cover, created green jobs and cracked down on deforestation by the “timber mafia”. This was helping to offset rising emissions from a growing population and industry.

“The new administration should try to plug loopholes in the scheme to further strengthen it like identification of appropriate tree species for specific areas and soils before the plantation drive,” she suggested, and present the project at international forums to secure green financing. “This is a project of national importance and [should] hence be owned by each political party irrespective of their position in the parliament.”

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In 2010, Pakistan had 648,000 hectares of tree cover, covering 0.74% of its land area. In 2020, it lost 69.2 hectares of tree cover, equivalent to 26,100 tonnes of CO₂ emissions, according to the Global Forest Watch.

The project was “an excellent step in the right direction” but required transparency and a complete audit of its funds, said Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, climate change expert and former chief-executive of think-tank LEAD Pakistan.

“There is no city wise data available on allocation, utilisation of funds and subsequent tree plantation,” he said, raising questions over the previous government’s data on afforestation and emissions.

Khan’s party piloted the tree tsunami initiative in Khyber Pakhtunkwa province in 2014, where WWF judged it an environmental success but many complaints of corruption were raised.

“The new administration should have a financial audit of the project to unearth embezzlement in it, if any,” Sheikh said. “And then try to achieve a national ownership for the scheme which remained missing during the previous government.”

Former climate change minister Aslam insisted the project was “completely transparent” and the new government should not try to “reverse or slow down” the initiative.

“The project is globally acknowledged, and it’s designed for Pakistan’s climate compatible future,” he added.

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The forestry experts died when their vehicle plunged into a deep ravine in Galiyat range in the early hours of Wednesday. They were travelling to Nathiagali, a town nestled among mountains and thick forests in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in northwest Pakistan.

WWF identified them as Aamir Saeed Khan, a provincial coordinator, Iftikhar Hussain, a campaign organiser, Atif Ali Khan, a geographic information systems analyst, Rafiullah, a forest surveyor and driver Farhan Afridi.

A spokesperson for WWF Pakistan told Climate Home News the organisation had been “deeply affected by this tragic incident”.

“We have lost young and passionate environmentalists and a senior forester who had been associated with the organisation for years. For many of us, this loss is deeply personal. We are still struggling to come to terms with the sudden loss of these precious lives and our thoughts are with their families.”

It is with great sorrow that we inform you that five of our friends and colleagues, who were en route to Nathiagali from Abbottabad, tragically passed away in a car accident earlier today. We would like to express our heartfelt condolences and grief. May God keep us all safe.

— WWF-Pakistan (@WWFPak) December 15, 2021

The employees were going to inspect a forest which is part of a World Bank-funded scheme to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, known as Redd+.

Climate minister Malik Amin Aslam paid tribute to the victims of the tragedy on Twitter, saying: “May Allah bless their souls.”

A Twitter user identifying himself as Anis replied: “Heart broken for us. Being a part of WWF we are unable to express our feelings at this tragedy… They were the real heros who were on way to save mother earth for our future.”

“Extremely tragic news. We from KP Forest & Wildlife Department are indeed grieved on this tragedy,” said Abid Majeed, an official at the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government.

Prime minister Imran Khan has made forest protection a key part of his presidency. His “10 billion tree tsunami” programme aims to plant 10 billion trees across the country and restore more than a million hectares of forest.

The programme aims to increase resilience to climate impacts like extremes of rainfall, while absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere and creating jobs.

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Like many developing countries, though, its capacity to build back better from Covid-19 is limited by a mounting debt burden.

The government is developing a novel debt-for-nature scheme to ease its debt woes and accelerate the “10 billion tree tsunami”. Designed by the Finance for Biodiversity initiative, the first-of-its-kind nature performance bond would link debt retirement with nature restoration targets.

Prime minister Imran Khan has promised to plant 10 billion trees across the country and restore more than a million hectares of forest. The mammoth project aims to increase resilience to climate impacts like extremes of rainfall, while absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere and creating jobs.

“We are investing heavily in nature so when this conversation started about the nature bond we were excited about it,” Malik Amin Aslam, Pakistan prime minister’s official advisor on climate change, told Climate Home News.

“There is a push post-Covid-19 to ask for debt retirement and if we can link [relief] to nature performance, it gives more value to the world,” he said.

Special advisor on climate change Malik Amin Aslam inaugurates a mangrove plantation at Yaqi Bundar, Sindh province, Pakistan (Photo: Ministry of Climate Change/Government of Pakistan)

As of February, the government claimed to have created 85,000 jobs by paying unemployed members of the community to work in tree nurseries and look after saplings, under its “tree tsunami”. It aims to employ another 200,000 people to drive the afforestation effort.

Prime minister Khan announced the creation of 15 national parks to protect over 7,300 square kilometres of land last year. The establishment of a National Park Service aims to create 5,000 jobs in nature protection to respond to a rise in unemployment.

The former cricketer turned prime minister has made the campaign one of his flagship policies since taking office in 2018, staking much of his reputation on the project’s success.

Prime Minister Imran Khan plants Kashmir Freedom Tree in Islamabad, special prayers were held for the development of Pakistan and Independence of Held Kashmir on occasion.#KashmirBlackDay #BlackDay pic.twitter.com/DBErjzO88W

— Government of Pakistan (@GovtofPakistan) October 27, 2019

“This is a highly politicised project,” Mahmood Akhtar Cheema, country representative for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in Pakistan, told Climate Home News.

The government is in the first phase of planting 3.3 billion trees by election year in 2023 and is hoping to meet the first billion goal by the end of June – a target it is on track to meet, said Aslam.

Between $800 million and $1 billion have been earmarked for the tree tsunami in the next four years. IUCN Pakistan estimates the campaign could end up costing $2.5bn.

Syed Kamran Hussain, of WWF-Pakistan, told Climate Home News the pilot will help “develop the financial framework for the restoration of degraded ecosystems” at a time when liquidity is in short supply.

“The government is currently using its own resources, but there is a need for the international community to make investments,” Cheema said, describing the prospect of the new bond as “huge opportunity” to raise funds.

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The triple crisis of Covid-19, ballooning debt and climate change has propelled debt-for-climate schemes to the top of the international agenda.

Khan has been vocal about the need for rich countries to provide debt relief to developing nations that are struggling to meet their population’s basic needs, let alone invest in sustainable and low-carbon development.

According to its central bank, Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities have grown from $95bn in 2018 to almost $116bn at the end of December 2020. On average over the past five years, debt interest payments accounted for a third of the country’s total revenues.

Pakistan is expected to benefit the most in absolute terms from a debt service suspension initiative agreed by the G20 group of rich countries. But the central bank estimates this relief will not be sufficient “to create the needed fiscal space to mitigate the impact of Covid-19”.

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Mark Halle, an environment and sustainable expert who helped set up IUCN’s Pakistan programme in the mid-1980s, is familiar with the country’s efforts to restore its ecosystems and its need for funding.

Now a member of the Finance for Biodiversity initiative, Halle knows Aslam, who serves as the global vice president of IUCN, well. When he asked the climate advisor whether Pakistan would be interested in piloting the new bond, he quickly got his attention.

Under the scheme, a creditor nation would agree to write off a portion of newly issued debt or reduce repayment interest rates if Pakistan met agreed biodiversity and nature restoration targets.

This could include increasing mangrove coverage along the coast, for example. Mangroves are a natural barrier that protect from storms and sea level rise and store up to four times as much carbon as land-based forests.

Mangrove cover in Pakistan’s Indus delta has increased by an estimated 300% between 1990 and 2020, according to a recent study. But researchers found climate change and human activities, such as camel grazing, cutting trees for fuel and overfishing, had driven four out of eight indigenous mangrove species to extinction.

A tree nursery (Photo: WWF-Pakistan)

To ensure the environmental integrity of the pilot, satellite images will be used to monitor performance against agreed nature restoration targets.

“We made it clear that we would be looking for performance measures that genuinely created change on the ground,” Halle said. “Designing a new national park wouldn’t work because that is essentially drawing a line on a map.” But the restoration of a designated area could be rewarded.

“This creates a very strong incentive to perform” and accelerate the implementation of the government’s nature and biodiversity programmes, Halle told Climate Home News from his home in Switzerland.

“If the government subsequently decided to cut down the trees and plough the land, debt payment interest rates would rise again, creating an incentive not only to perform, but to stick with the performance,” he added.

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One potential stumbling block is corruption.

Before Khan became prime minister, his party started its tree-planting initiative on a regional scale in the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2014.

In terms of its environmental goals, the project was a success, according to an audit by WWF, with 872,000,000 seedlings planted and 89% surviving as of June 2017.

But the National Accountability Bureau found that about $3m had been lost to corruption along the way. The report cited cases of nepotism, misappropriation and embezzlement of daily wages.

There is also the threat of wildfire and drought reversing some of the forest gains.

An acacia plantation in Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (Photo: WWF-Pakistan)

Abid Suleri, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy Institute, stressed the importance of choosing the right species for the arid climate and nurturing them to maturity.

“It’s easy to plant a sapling. But to turn it into a tree requires a lot of dedicated care,” he said. “It’s ambitious, but it’s doable.”

A consortium including WWF, IUCN and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), will audit the first stage of the 10 billion tree campaign with financial support from German development bank KfW.

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Getting creditors on board could be the most difficult part, Halle said. “Largely because it is new. Somebody has got to move first.”

Finance for Biodiversity is discussing the idea with the UK, Canada, Germany and Italy and has approached China – by far Pakistan’s largest official creditor – despite low expectation Beijing will get involved in the early stages.

Khan has a personal connection with UK environment minister Zac Goldsmith, who is leading on nature ahead of the Cop26 climate summit. Khan was married to Jemima Goldsmith, Zac’s sister, for nearly a decade before they divorced in 2004 and they have two sons.

Zac Goldsmith has previously described Pakistan’s tree planting campaign as “extraordinary” and “a truly global inspiration”. The UK government did not respond to a request for comment.

The UN Development Programme is planning to offer technical assistance to the Pakistani government to facilitate the structuring of the bond, a spokesperson told Climate Home News.

Vikram Widge, senior advisor at the Climate Policy Initiative, told Climate Home News there is appetite among creditors for debt-for-climate and nature schemes.

Widge said innovative and creative mechanisms could have “a huge impact” if deployed to reverse biodiversity loss, and invested in ecosystem restoration, forestry and regenerative agriculture.

“I think we need to do more of this, but I think we need to be smart and sensible about it. The pilots are critical for testing and learning what works, what doesn’t,” he said. It is more appropriate for middle-income countries with the ability to service debts than countries in severe debt distress, he added.

Pakistan is due to host World Environment Day in June, which will launch a 10-year UN campaign to restore ecosystems, and could be a moment to announce a deal with creditors.

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On Saturday, Imran Khan told a virtual gathering of global leaders: “We have decided we will not have any more power based on coal”.

Simon Nicholas, an energy finance analyst with Ieefa, said: “On the face of it, this is a highly significant statement for Pakistan, which was until now intending to exploit its domestic coal reserves.” The Pakistani Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy (ACJCE) said the announcement was “a step in the right direction”.

Plants under construction are expected to be completed, but the announcement pours cold water on the national grid operator’s projections of a significant expansion of coal power. As recently as April, the National Transmission and Despatch Company forecast 27GW of coal power capacity would be added between 2030 and 2047, bringing the total to 38GW. “This [plan] will now need to be re-written,” Nicholas said.

Sohaib Malik, an energy analyst from Pakistan, said the discrepancy reflected a lack of coordination between government and the power sector. “There’s no integrated plan that all are supposed to follow. They work in silos more often than not,” he told Climate Home.

In the week before Khan’s announcement, Pakistan’s energy minister met the Chinese ambassador and discussed investment in renewable energy.

Chinese companies are financing or building most of Pakistan’s coal plants through the China-Pakistan economic corridor, which Ieefa called the “centrepiece” of of China’s belt and road initiative (BRI). “If coal power is being de-prioritised within the China-Pakistan economic corridor it can now happen right across the BRI,” said Nicholas.

The Chinese government has suggested it would like to make its investments abroad “greener” and its environment ministry has recently floated blacklisting coal power investments abroad.

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Khan’s adviser on climate change, Malik Amin Aslam, told Climate Home that coal plants under construction would not be cancelled. “They have state guarantees behind their [power purchase agreements], which can’t be re-negotiated,” he said.

Aslam added: “The imported coal projects established by previous government in the middle of Pakistan’s prime agriculture belt were a criminal act of ecocide. However, owing to state guarantees, it is impossible to de-commission them without extremely heavy financial costs and these agreements are locked in for 30-year timeframes.”

According to Pakistan’s government, there are 2,640 MW of plants under construction. A 660 MW plant built by a cement company in Port Qasim is expected to be completed in March 2021 and three plants with a combined capacity of 1,980 MW should be up and running in the coal-rich Thar desert by June 2022.

Two projects have been given permits but construction has not yet started. One is a 300 MW plant in Gwadar port, which will use imported coal. The other is a 330 MW plant in Thar, which will use local coal. A handful of plants are in earlier phases of planning. Aslam did not clarify whether these would go ahead.

ACJCE called on the government to government to “halt all those coal power plants or coal mining projects which are in their initial stages of development so that these do not become an unsustainable environmental, social and financial burden for the country”.

Chris Littlecott, associate director at E3G, said that governments tended not to cancel permits as they seek to maintain “regulatory certainty” and avoid legal challenges. But, he said, developers might think “it’s not a smart move to build coal plants any longer”.

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Aslam told Climate Home the government was “seriously exploring” options to close operating plants early, including a proposal by American and British think tanks to shift from coal to renewables in exchange for debt relief.

Infographic from a report by the Rocky Mountain Institute, Sierra Club and Carbon Tracker

ACJCE called on the government to hold coal plants to strict environmental standards and to “phase them out gradually because they have become non-competitive” with wind and solar energy.

In his two-minute speech at the Climate Ambition Summit, Khan said that, by 2030, 60% of all electricity produced in Pakistan will come from clean sources and 30% of all vehicles will be electric. Aslam said this would be achieved using solar, hydro and wind as well as nuclear.

Muhammad Ali Shah, the chairman of Pakistan fisher-folk forum said hydropower should not be included in the category of renewables because of its impact on river ecology, aquatic life and the lives of those dependent on river waters. Solar and wind are cheaper and more environmentally friendly, he said.

Khan said he still intended to mine Pakistan’s coal and convert it to liquid fuels, which can be used for transport, and methane gas for power generation.

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Aslam said turning coal to gas or liquids has a “significantly lower carbon footprint” than burning coal. In 2009, a Duke University study found the opposite. Unless the CO2 emissions are captured, it said turning coal to gas and burning it produces more emissions than burning the coal directly.

In 2014, Laszlo Varro, head of gas, coal and power markets at the International Energy Agency said coal gasification’s “overall carbon intensity is worse [than coal mining], so it is not attractive at all from a climate change point of view”.

ACJCE’s Zain Moulvi said: “Gasification and liquefaction of indigenous coal found in Thar simply displaces the site of pollution and fails to address the wider concerns and impacts of mining in Thar which have proven to be devastating to Thari communities.”

Ieefa’s Nicholas told Climate Home this part of the plan “demonstrates the continued influence of China and the coal lobby” and a desire for energy security. Energy security could be addressed better and cheaper with wind and solar, he said.

The post Pakistan signals coal power exit, in potential model for China’s belt and road appeared first on Climate Home News.

Ironically, just two nights before, there was a massive night-long power breakdown after tripping of an extra high tension line in Karachi, the country’s most populous city. Almost all of Karachi was enveloped in darkness.

The omission of power shortage in Khan’s speech seemed almost deliberate. Exactly five years ago, on the same day, his predecessor Nawaz Sharif had laced his speech to the nation with promises of attending to the “worst” power shortfall that had “paralysed” the economy. He pursued a national energy policy that had the approval of all provinces.

Some say the reference to the electricity shortage was not needed because, to a large extent, the previous government had been able to fulfil its pledge of adding 12,230 megawatts (MW) of electricity to the national grid in the last five years through 39 energy projects. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2017-18, the installed power generation capacity increased to 29,573 MW by February 2018 from 22,812 MW in 2012-13.

Michael Kugleman, the deputy director of the Asia Programme at the Washington DC-based Wilson Center, had a slightly different take on this omission. He said that the “energy crisis is still there” as are shortages even if less serious than in recent years.

“My sense is that Khan didn’t talk too much about it because his initial speeches have been targeting his core supporters, and I don’t think the issue of power shortage is necessarily something that would be a top priority issue to flag; issues of corruption etc are more important in that regard,” he said.

Despite fewer and almost rare power breakdowns, many energy experts are unhappy with the method and the resource used to generate electricity. A vast chunk is being invested in making electricity using coal – much to the ire of environmentalists.

China is investing €35 billion in power stations, mostly coal-fired, in Pakistan (Pic: Zofeen T Ebrahim)

Out of the 21 energy projects to be completed on a fast track (by 2019) with a cumulative capacity of 10,400 MW, nine are coal power plants, seven wind power plants, three hydropower, and two are HVDC transmission line projects.

Nearly $35 billion of the $60 billion worth of loans for producing energy from the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will be used to build new power stations, mainly coal-fired.

The projects completed include two mega coal power plants of 1,320 MW each, one in Punjab’s Sahiwal (commercially operating since May 2017) and the other in Karachi’s Port Qasim (Commercially operating since April 2018) using imported bituminous coal with modern supercritical coal-fired units.  According to news reports, the country’s National Accountability Bureau has initiated an alleged corruption probe into both the costly projects.

Another one under completion is in the Thar desert in Sindh, about 400 kilometres from the port city of Karachi. It includes mining and setting up two 330 MW power plants at a cost of $2 billion. Once completed, it will be the first large power generation project using local coal.

Election result: Imran Khan says Pakistan will plant 10 billion trees

The Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company has finally reached the coal seam in the desert. According to the company’s chief executive officer, Shamsuddin Shaikh, by October the company would have dug down to 162 metres to be able to dig up “useful” lignite coal. At the same time work at the first of the two power plants is 85% complete and commissioning will begin by November-December this year when it will start supplying power to the national grid on an experimental basis. Once the first plant is fired, it will gobble up 3.8 million tons of coal each year.

Other projects in the pipeline include three 1,320 MW coal power plants. The ones at Rahim Yar Khan (in Punjab), and Hub (in Balochistan) to be completed between December 2018 and August 2019 respectively, will use imported coal. The third one, at Thar Block VI (in Sindh), will use indigenous lignite coal.

That does not mean that Pakistan is going to be completely coal-driven. Vaqar Zakaria, managing director of environmental consultancy firm Hagler Bailly Pakistan, put the figure to “just about 10% of current power generation” which is from imported coal. However, he pointed out that coal-based power generation will increase to about 30% of the country’s capacity requirement in the next three years once plants on Thar coal come on line, and those at Hub and Jamshoro expand on imported coal.

Zakaria pointed out that the main argument in favour of Thar coal was the “lower reliance on imported fuel”, and to meet the “demand particularly when hydropower drops in winter” although the capital cost was high as the mines also have to be developed. However, he predicted the country will “see a slowdown in capacity addition in Thar in future”.

But projects relying on imported coal were questionable, especially those that are being carried out now, said Zakaria. “The earlier ones were justified [by the government] on the basis of load shedding and early induction of power to fill the demand-supply gap like the one at Port Qasim and Sahiwal plants that are already on line; but the ones at Hub and Jamshoro cannot be justified on that basis. It is hard to understand why a project on imported coal was added so late in the game,” he said.

Microhydro projects have brought power to remote mountain communities in northern Pakistan (Pic: Zofeen T Ebrahim)

Zakaria said projects based on imported coal should never have been a compulsion. “We have created and are creating a long term liability for the country in terms of balance of payments, and I don’t agree with a short term justification (getting rid of load shedding) to acquire a liability for future generations,” he said.

Talking to thethirdpole.net, Malik Amin Aslam, the newly appointed advisor to the Pakistani prime minister on climate change, said most existing coal based projects would likely have long-term agreements. This would mean that the new Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) government only had the option of making the “best out of a bad situation”.

“If there are long-term contracts with strict financial liabilities for non-compliance, which is most likely on all the coal projects signed by previous governments, then it is not easy for states to get out of them,” explained Aslam. However, he said that what can be done is to ensure the “strictest possible environmental controls” with public-private monitoring systems to “minimise and control any damages”.

He gave the example of the Sahiwal coal project, terming it a “potential disaster – poorly planned and badly located in Pakistan’s prime agricultural zone”. It was under a long term “water-tight legal” agreement. Nevertheless, he added, “It has strict Environmental Impact Assessment control provisions within the contract and that is where this government will come in to ensure these are enforced and monitored.”

There is little doubt that PTI will back the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and by extension, the coal-related projects that go with it, said Kugelman and that it will not “rein in” the coal projects, as that would risk “antagonising” China. Nevertheless he does see the newly-elected government “trying to make pushes for clean coal and not making major pushes for coal projects outside of those associated with CPEC”.

“Either way, we can expect the PTI to make major pitches for renewables,” said Kugelman. The extent to which it can translate pitches into substantive actions and initiatives, however, remains to be seen.

Pakistan: senator calls for climate cooperation with India amid water crisis

Zakaria suggested the conversation needs to move beyond just coal – indigenous or imported. The discussion on power capacity in the present circumstances, he suggested, really ought to centre on “improving efficiency of distribution, and reduction of thefts and losses, and demand side management including energy efficiency”.

To Zakria’s mind, Pakistan needs to slow down on acquisition of large scale centralised power capacity, both coal and hydropower. While these may be indigenous, they have significant environmental and social consequences. Importing natural gas for power generation might be a better bet.

It is also important to remember that not all the CPEC power projects are coal-based. In terms of hydropower there is the 969 MW run-of-the-river Neelum Jhelum hydropower project (in Pakistan administered Kashmir), and the addition of a fourth unit to the Tarbela hydropower plant, contributing an additional 1,410 MW of power. Several other hydropower projects are underway, including a 870 MW hydropower plant in Sukhi Kinari (in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to be completed by 2021), a 720 MW plant in Karot (to be completed by 2021) and an 1,100 MW plant in Kohala (to be completed by 2023) on Jhelum river in Pakistan administered Kashmir. Two smaller hydropower projects of 80 MW and 100 MW each at Gilgit-Baltistan are also under review.

There is also the 3,600 MW re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) based power plants in Haveli Bahadur Shah, Bhikki and Balloki (all three in the Punjab province), and four wind power plants in Sindh province – three of 50 MW each in Dadu, Gharo and Sachal – and a 100 MW wind farm at Jhimpir.

Pakistan’s future energy mix is not all coal, but there is no getting away from its dependence on coal just yet.

This article was produced by Third Pole

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Imran Khan is aiming to plant 10 billion trees in five years as prime minister of Pakistan.

It is a scaling up of the “billion tree tsunami” his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) carried out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, restoring 350,000 hectares of forest.

The cricketer-turned-politician claimed election victory on Thursday, although PTI is expected to rely on coalition partners to govern. While his campaign focused on anti-corruption, it also promised several environmental initiatives.

Malik Amin Aslam, who drafted the climate change section of the PTI manifesto and is tipped as environment minister, told Climate Home News green growth was key.

“PTI is the one party which has taken a bold initiative on the green platform,” he said. “Pakistan is facing the brunt of climate change, so I think climate preparation, making sure our development is totally climate compatible, our infrastructure is resilient to climate shocks, is going to be very high priority.”

In one of its first acts following the election, PTI circulated a list of 10 calls to action for Pakistanis, including “plant a tree” and “save water and electricity”.

Report: Pakistani senator calls for climate cooperation with India amid water crisis

Its manifesto pledges include dam-building and water conservation initiatives to tackle drought; introducing green building codes and supporting clean energy.

Citing a desire to reduce reliance on imports, it also promotes increased use of domestic coal reserves from Thar province. Much of the investment in coal has come from China, which is described as a “golden opportunity” for Pakistan.

Aslam said these projects were already in progress and PTI’s focus would be to make sure they complied with environmental standards, while developing Pakistan’s hydro, wind and solar resources.

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This had been the approach for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial government, he said, where PTI drove the installation of 300 micro hydropower units.

In a 2015 interview with Climate Home News, Khan criticised the federal government of the time for allocating “paltry funds” to its climate change ministry – less than $400,000 that year.

Khan also spoke about the impact climate change was already having on Pakistan and called industrialised nations to account for their historic pollution.

“We unfortunately do not have the luxury to waste time on our side as far as climate change is concerned. We in Pakistan are actually living through the age of urgent climate adaptation,” he said.

“Rich countries should not only assist Pakistan in mitigation and adaptation efforts but also compensate us for the tremendous economic losses we face each year.”

Ali Tauqeer Sheik, chief executive of Islamabad-based thinktank Lead Pakistan, urged the new government to do more to protect poor and marginalised people from the impacts of climate change.

“His emphasis on forestry is a very encouraging one – we hope that the area under forest increases,” said Sheik. But he added: “Mr Imran Khan’s [acceptance] speech did not even mention the climate challenge and climate vulnerability… The most important thing for a developing country that is as vulnerable as Pakistan is is to first have a clear vision.”

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Leading Indian thinktank Niti Aayog warned in a report this month that 600 million citizens faced high to extreme water stress. It did not have data for Jammu & Kashmir, the state the Indus flows through into Pakistan, but drinking water shortages have been reported.

In Pakistan, the meteorological department has issued a drought warning across most of the country. In the southeastern province Sindh, The News Pakistan reports 60% of the mango harvest was damaged in the worst drought for 25 years. Reservoirs are low and farmers planting less cotton in the parched soil, reports the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Sherry Rehman, opposition leader in Pakistan’s senate, told Climate Home News the two countries should treat it as a security priority.

Sherry Rehman (Pic: Atlantic Council)

“Climate change is a threat that respects no boundaries and South Asia is now one of the most vulnerable regions. It is alarming that Pakistan and India are both way behind in formulating a comprehensive plan to tackle climate change,” she said.

“More than ever before, we must look at climate change as an issue of survival and start to understand the expansion of what security means in order to see the importance of moving beyond its traditional concepts.”

Report: Indian authorities claim progress in campaign to end heatwave deaths

Pakistan signed a national water policy in April. With pressures of Indian dam-building upriver, population growth and climate change, the agrarian economy is now stretched at a 30-day water reserve capacity compared to the 1,000-day recommended standard.

The policy promised to double the country’s storage capacity to 28 million acre-feet (34.5 billion cubic metres), securing the long-term viability of the Indus basin, its primary source of water.

Executive director of Islamabad-based thinktank SDPI, Abed Saleri, said: “In a country where we have divided opinions and polarization on almost all major issues, it is a great step forward that at least there is one central policy on water issues.

“Our per capita availability of water has already dropped; we are using 77% of our available water resources so in that context at least having a water policy is a good omen.”

Fears for water security are an ongoing source of tension with India, which controls water levels through a series of upriver dams.

Pakistani officials raised concerns with the World Bank in May about the recently inaugurated Kishanganga hydroelectric plant, claiming it violated the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. The bank reportedly refused to refer their complaint to the international court of arbitration.

“It is particularly important for Pakistan and India to address climate change in every forum available, including the Indus Waters Treaty, considering that we both share a depleting water basin,” said Rehman, who is a member of the left-wing Pakistan People’s Party.

India’s water ministry, on the other hand, maintains it is under-using its share of the water, and Indian policy expert Brahma Chellaney has called the deal lop-sided, saying India traded away most of its water for peace.

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Bilal Khalid, head of the climate and water program at LEAD, told Climate Home News the timing of river flows was as important as the total volume of water.

“The problem is really with the temporal availability of water. For example, we are very sensitive in terms of the sowing season of our crops,” he said, with a difference of just a few days hitting crop yields by up to 20-30%.

“So those can have very major implications for the food security and also the livelihoods of the downstream population in Pakistan.”

Khalid added climate change was increasing the strain on a water treaty that has withstood three conflicts between the South Asian nations.

“There is a point which people are becoming increasingly vocal about: at the time of the formulation of the treaty, there were issues that were not there, for example, climate change. It is a very important issue that the treaty does not really talk about.”

Major Himalayan glaciers like the Kolahoi are receding, slashing the seasonal run-off into rivers that supply India and Pakistan. At the same time, more frequent and intense heat waves make water evaporate more quickly from the soil. A global record of 50.2C for the hottest April day was recorded in Nawabshah, Pakistan this year.

“There is a need to engage in dialogue with India to figure out these issues that were not there before. How can they be incorporated in to the treaty – because really, the issue is that net water will start reducing under the impact of climate change because the Indus is primarily glacial melt, then how will they treaty react to that situation?”

Researchers predict at least 4% percent of the South Asian population will experience unlivable temperatures without air conditioning by 2100, and three quarters are expected to experience dangerous level temperatures.

“The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins,” the authors wrote.

If the countries fail to cooperate, clashes over water could “tip over into violence,” warned Janani Vivekananda, climate security expert at consultancy Adelphi. “South Asian security policy makers need to appreciate that non-traditional security threats such as climate change pose as real a risk as traditional security threats.”

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The CEO of Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECM), Shamsuddin Ahmad Shaikh, said on Thursday that with government and investor support – particularly from China – its coal developments in Thar are running quicker than expected.

SECM is developing a 1,320MW coal power plant in Thar which is expected to be completed by June 2019.

Also under development is the Sino-Sindh Resources Limited (SSRL)’s open pit mine, which is expected to produce 6.5m metric tonnes a year. It will reach commercial operation as early as 2018. Coal from this pit will power a 1,320MW plant, expected to be operational by 2019.

Addressing a seminar in Karachi, Shaikh said that SECM can “considerably” reduce electricity costs to 6¢ per unit once its Thar coal production reaches a capacity of 4,000MW.

The Thar region’s provincial chief minister Syed Murad Ali Shah, said the coal projects will “change the face” of Pakistan’s biggest city Karachi and Sindh, the province in which Thar is located.

In Thar, drought means water must be hauled by mules from deep wells – or when they are too weak, people. (Photo: Aware)

The seminar was organised by the Express Media Group, land development company Rafi Group and real estate marketing company, Fast Marketing. It was the first of a series of seminars discussing the driving force behind coal development in Thar, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

A spokesperson from CPEC told Climate Home that “the coal sector in Pakistan is working very fast; mining is approved and we are expecting big changes in Pakistan.”

CPEC is an investment agreement between Pakistan and China for developing infrastructure projects. The first phase is for $46 billion in investments over 15 years. CPEC is “not only an economic corridor but it’s an endless path of prosperity and economic stability,” chief executive of Fast Marketing Asghar Goraya told Climate Home.

CPEC’s “largest portfolio is the energy sector, which is bigger in terms of allocation of funds,” said Shah.

China is “very interested” in investing in Thar coal, said Ali Akbar, executive director at the Association for Water, Applied Education and Renewable Energy (Aware).

Thar is home to one of the largest coal deposits in the world, with 175 billion tons of coal over 9,000 square kilometres. HoweverAware is campaigning for Thar coal reserves to remain in the ground.

Akbar says people are already feeling the effects of water scarcity and coal dust pollution due to mining activities. Gaining water in Thar is “a very difficult practice,” said Akbar. Animals are used to pull a rope, tied to a bucket. Sometimes the water that is left is 300ft deep, says Akbar.

Due to climate change, droughts are also gaining in intensity in Thar. During drought periods “the animals get weaker and people have to pull ropes by hand,” said Akbar.

People in Thar “need solar or wind energy operated systems to drag out underground water.”

“There are other options [in Thar] for solar energy,” Akbar said. “If the technology is there to not harm the environment, we should go for that.”

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According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Thar has high solar irradiance, receiving up to 5KWh per square meter a day. This is comparable to parts of the Arabian Peninsula, where solar is considered a highly favourable source of electricity.

When asked why China is investing in Thar coal instead of harvesting high solar irradiation, Akbar said: “I don’t know,” then added, “Pakistan needs banks and investors for solar projects; for them to support solar instead of coal.”

Funding for renewables is currently thwarted by high interest rates, “above 7-9%” said Muhammad Farhan, founder of three renewable energy entities: trade body Pakistan Solar Association, renewables training company The Solar Institute and renewable energy company Power Highway.

Investor confidence has been shaken by land access problems and government delays, it’s a “slow procedure” for the approval of renewables, said Farhan.

Investment “is all coal, not renewables,” said Akbar, but for the people of Thar, renewables investment is “the most urgent need.”

This article was amended. Express Tribune Media Group was changed to Express Media Group and Aware is not “Pakistan’s largest NGO as stated in the original.

The post China kickstarting new coal boom in Pakistan appeared first on Climate Home News.

The approvals – some with conditions – came at the 14th meeting of the GCF board, held from October 12 to 14 in Songdo, South Korea.

But a big project in South Asia was effectively kept on hold. There was considerable acrimony at the board meeting when Dinesh Sharma, representing the government of India, objected to the USD 37 million project meant to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) in northern Pakistan.

The project is supposed to be carried out by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The status of the affected region was the big problem. Many of the activities under the project are planned in Gilgit-Baltistan, an area under the administrative control of Pakistan but claimed by both India and Pakistan.

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Some parts are under the administrative control of China and are also claimed by India.

Sharma, a Special Secretary in India’s Ministry of Finance, said, “The same portion (Gilgit-Baltistan) comes under the administrative control of different countries. Not just India, it’s Pakistan, it’s the other countries also.”

Talking about the countries that are under threat from GLOFs in the Himalayas, Sharma objected to the exclusion of India from the list in the project proposal. “They are all listed in the appraisal note. Nepal, Bhutan, China. Only India for some reason is not listed.”

Sharma stressed that his objections were not political but technical. According to him, the proposal had assumed there would be no GLOF during the five years when construction under the project was going on, and this was a faulty assumption.

There have been a number of GLOFs in the region in the last few years.

https://twitter.com/OmairTAhmad/status/790812319064264704

After two days of debate and closed-door negotiations, a complicated decision was reached. The project was approved but an independent technical assessment to study its feasibility will be carried out. The report of this assessment will be submitted to the board and the money for the project will be given only if the board approves the report.

Many members of the GCF board expressed their unhappiness over the controversy. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a member from an African country said, “The meeting was effectively hijacked due to the political tension between India and Pakistan. This is not healthy. It may affect any proposal submitted by India in future.”

Another proposal that led to much debate was for a USD 378 million project for Sustainable Energy Financing Facilities, to be carried out by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in 13 countries – Albania, Armenia, Egypt, Georgia, Jordan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Serbia, Tajikistan and Tunisia.

The problem was that of the 13, only eight governments had provided mandatory no-objection letters. It was finally decided that only those eight countries would be funded.

At the meeting, the board appointed Howard Bamsey of Australia as the GCF Executive Director for the next four years.

Eight more organisations were accredited by the board, so that they can approach the GCF for funds. The GCF is now the principal conduit for funding projects to combat climate change – much of its money comes from industrialised countries, and it has so far approved 16 projects, all in developing countries.

The fund now has over USD 10 billion, though that is far short of the promise by industrialised countries to pay USD 100 billion a year from 2020.

This article first appeared on The Third Pole

The post Green Climate Fund talks ‘hijacked’ by India-Pakistan conflict appeared first on Climate Home News.

This is despite commitments from China’s top leaders to deliver clean energy and low carbon infrastructure for developing countries.

The world’s largest carbon emitter aims to reposition itself as a global green power. In a joint US-China statement at the White House in September 2015, President Xi Jinping agreed to strictly control public investment for overseas projects with high pollution and carbon emissions.

China won praise for promising to peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 at the UN climate summit in Paris in 2015 – and trying to wean itself slowly off coal. Chinese manufacturers are now major suppliers of cheap solar and wind parts worldwide.

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However, these efforts are being undercut by Chinese backed coal power plants planned and under construction from Indonesia to Pakistan, Turkey to the Balkans –as well as in Africa and Latin America. These could boost global emissions and lock developing countries into fossil fuel intensive energy systems for decades.

New data collected by chinadialogue and the CEE Bankwatch Network shows that since 2015 many new Chinese coal plant project deals have been announced and are under development.

“The majority of these projects are under loan consideration by China’s policy-driven financing, and supplied by equipment from the country’s largest power generation manufacturers,” said Wawa Wang, public finance policy officer at CEE Bankwatch Network.

Chinese banks and companies are currently involved in at least 79 coal fired generation projects, with a total capacity of over 52 GW, more than the 46 GW of planned coal closures in the US by 2020.

Beijing has encouraged state owned coal companies and energy intensive industries such as concrete, steel and cement, to “go out” as part of the One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR). This aims to open up new opportunities for Chinese companies and to build infrastructure to link China to European markets and beyond.

New outlets 

The overseas push comes as China’s power sector is struggling with severe overcapacity with the slowing economy and slashing of energy intensive industries at home. This has led to the lowest use of existing power generation capacity since 1978. Greenpeace estimates that at any given moment, more than half of China’s coal capacity lies idle.

Yet despite central government attempts to reduce its coal fired power and the toxic smog it produces, there is a surge in new approvals for power plants as a result of pushback from provincial authorities and the perverse incentives created by falling coal prices and government fixed electricity prices.

In addition, Huaneng– one of five state owned energy giants – plans to significantly boost its share of profits from overseas projects by 2020, according to its five year strategy. Its expansion will focus on coal in South and Southeast Asia, Russia and Eastern Europe; hydropower in South Asia, Africa and Europe; and wind and solar in Europe and Latin America. While the corporate strategy highlights overseas risks from war, terrorist attacks and corruption, environmental risks are not mentioned.

All this contributes to concern that China will follow developed countries’ example and simply export its carbon emissions as it moves up the global value chain, threatening any fragile international progress on emissions reduction.

Industry insiders argue that China’s coal advance will bring tangible environmental benefits by providing more efficient technologies than countries could otherwise afford. But the number of new projects in the pipeline will counteract any modest emissions savings made by “supercritical” technology, especially since China’s new, stringent standards for domestic plants do not apply to exports.

While global coal use is thought to have fallen by 4.6% year on year through the first nine months of 2015 – urgent action is still needed to avoid locking in carbon intensive resource use in the future. A third of the new capacity in the global pipeline is coal (1161/3165 GW) according to estimates a forthcoming paper by Phillip Hannam, a scholar at the Princeton Environment Institute – and nearly 90% of this is in rapidly growing Asian economies.

China’s expansion comes as the World Bank and many developed countries have stepped back from funding dirty coal. In 2013 the World Bank strictly limited coal funding and last year OECD countries including Japan and Korea promised to end public financing of coal plants overseas except to the poorest countries.

An earlier study from the San Francisco-based Climate Policy Initiative found that China had invested as much as US$38 billion (253 billion yuan) in coal fired power plants overseas between 2010-2014 and had announced plans for another US$72 billion (480 billion yuan) worth of projects (though not all with firm commitments).

China’s coal footprint is particularly large in Asia. In 2015 coal-fuelled plants accounted for 68% of generating capacity built by China in the rest of Asia, and in future this is set to rise, according to an earlier paper co-authored by Hannam. In contrast, where countries built capacity without Chinese support, coal-fired plants made up only 32% of new capacity.  Worldwide, the majority of China’s support to the power sector in the global south was funnelled into coal, says the paper.

Since 2000, China has overtaken Japan to become the leading exporter of coal equipment – offering “bargain” prices to energy-starved countries and increasing its share of global coal exports from zero to 37% (85GW). It may be much higher, since, where data is missing, exports are largely attributable to China.

China is the largest supplier of equipment to India, which is expected to double its coal capacity by 2031. Chinese firms account for 60% of the equipment ordered in the private sector and are involved in at least 19 projects across the country, the largest being a massive 4,000 MW plant in Gujarat, built by Huaneng and financed by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)

Coal flows along the Silk Roads

Historically, coal power financing has predominantly flowed to India, Indonesia and Vietnam – but now China is diversifying with multimillion dollar projects planned in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Kazakhstan. Further along the OBOR corridors, coal hotspots are emerging in Turkey and the Balkans, where local players are also active. These countries lie outside more stringent European Union environmental regulations and the limitations placed on international finance.

The money and equipment flow into countries where environmental regulations and laws are weak and corruption endemic. In Pakistan alone, China is building at least 7,800 MWof new coal capacity under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

This includes the excavation of the dirtiest kind of lignite coal in the Thar desert – one of the world’s largest untapped coal deposits. The projects have met with protest on the streets and in the courts. In a land mark case, a seven-year old girl has sued the government for violating the rights of her generation to a healthy life by developing coal. In her petition she argues this will dramatically increase Pakistan’s carbon emissions, while ignoring the potential of wind and solar.

The Punjab high court’s objections to the Sahiwal coal plant on environmental grounds were brushed aside in 2015, since it is being fast-tracked under the CPEC. While Pakistan is desperately short of power, the economics are dubious. Sahiwal will require billions of dollars investment in new rail infrastructure to haul imported coal 1,000 km from the port city of Karachi. Petitioners say pollution around the site has already breached national air quality limits.

#China's State Grid constructs 2,000km ultra-high-voltage transmisison lines through #Brazil's #Amazon & Cerrado https://t.co/BPPqMPciCB pic.twitter.com/nAv50OoKHY

— China Dialogue (@chinadialogue) September 23, 2016

Compared to others, Chinese banks are particularly opaque: “Policy driven Chinese financial institutions have yet to adopt information disclosure and accountability policies to protect the rights of affected communities. The situation is further aggravated when there is no institutional oversight of Chinese overseas financing of energy infrastructure projects and the economic, social and environmental problems they cause,” says Wang.

The information behind the map was collected by chinadialogue and Bank Watch from company and bank annual reports and available commercial data. In many cases financial data is unavailable.

A way forward

China has no road map for phasing out overseas coal investment. “Implementation measures from the two countries are needed before the US-China joint statement can be translated into action,” says Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser on climate, energy and environment at The Natural Resources Defense Council, a Beijing based NGO.

He is working with a team to develop green guidelines –“an implementable policy that can be adopted by Chinese financial institutions.” They are preparing their recommendations for the government at the moment.

“Now we are trying to investigate experiences from the past two years to see what we can learn and improve because OBOR is a big global strategy, and without this, investors will face many risks, including environment and climate change risks,” says Yang. “If we don’t find solutions, we will find heavy resistance from local people.”

Chinese companies overseas are already running into environmental problems as they try to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and provide jobs for local people. In Bangladesh, police opened fire last year on villagers opposing the illegal seizure of land for the construction of the power plant by Chinese firms on the coast.

Yang’s work at the NRDC builds on a growing movement within China to hold Chinese banks to account on their green lending credentials – and a growing interest in green finance from institutions themselves. China is the world’s largest issuer of green bonds, but unless progress is made fast, Chinese money and equipment will be used to lock in dirty fossil fuel in developing countries and tarnish China’s ambitions to become a green superpower.

This article first appeared on China Dialogue. Emily Franklin, Zhou Jie and Robyn Maby also contributed to the data map.

The post China cuts pollution at home, grows coal abroad appeared first on Climate Home News.

It is also one of the most politically unstable parts of the world, with regional rivalries – particularly between India and Pakistan – threatening to lead to military conflict.

A report written by three senior retired military figures – from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – warns that unless there is more regional co-operation to tackle the impacts of climate change, conflict could break out, leading to suffering for tens of millions of people.

April temperatures in many areas of India were up to 5°C above the long-term average, the report notes. As a result, hundreds of people have died, and more than 300 million are enduring a serious drought.

Economic problems

“The recent drought has illustrated just how climate change creates chronic economic problems in South Asia, such as unemployment,” says retired Air Marshal A K Singh, from India.

“These conditions can contribute to militancy, terrorism and organised crime, aggravating existing conflicts and giving rise to new ones”.

The report – published by the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change – lists a number of ways in which changes in climate are affecting security in South Asia.

Sharing the region’s water resources is a key part of maintaining peace and stability, say the report’s authors. Pakistan has changed from being a water-affluent country to a water-stressed one over the last decade, while the water table in many areas of India has dropped dramatically.

“The challenge of addressing climate change actually represents an opportunity to catalyse long-term peace in the region”

India and Pakistan have reached some compromises on sharing water resources but much information on river flows and water usage is still treated as security-sensitive.

The study says it’s important that activities on the Tibetan Plateau – governed by China, and a vital water source for millions of people in the region – are included in agreements.

“Climate change does not have any boundaries,” the report says. “Most countries in South Asia are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, thus making it a common challenge.”

The authors point out that Bangladesh shares the waters of 57 rivers with its neighbours, The country is likely to be seriously affected by sea level rise in the years ahead, and its food production will be severely reduced.

All this will create tension and mass movements of people, and the military throughout the region should develop effective long-term climate change adaptation strategies and be prepared to play a greater role in humanitarian relief efforts.

Ecological degradation

The report urges the military in India and Pakistan to demilitarise the glaciers in the Himalayas. Every year, both countries spend millions of dollars maintaining military installations and troops in the mountains – activities that are leading to ecological degradation.

It calls for more regionally-based research and data gathering on climate change, and the setting-up of a regional advisory council to analyse security threats related to climate change.

“While South Asia has a long history of regional instability, the challenge of addressing climate change actually represents an opportunity to catalyse long-term peace in the region through continuous dialogue and co-operation,” says retired Major General Muniruzzaman, from Bangladesh.

The report’s other author, retired Lieutenant General Tariq Waseem Ghazi, from Pakistan, says South Asia is an example of a region where climate impacts are already affecting security.

He says: “If addressed jointly across borders, we can increase stability and save lives − for example, by co-ordinating in response to natural disasters and water shortages. This report is about militaries co-operating for peace.”

This article was produced by Climate News Network

The post Climate change raises conflict risk in South Asia, warn experts appeared first on Climate Home News.

Women fill their earthen pots with water from a well in drought-hit district of Tharparkar (Photo: Saleem Shaikh)

By Saleem Shaikh in Islamabad

Pakistan is rolling out measures to tackle a looming water crisis caused by depleting natural water resources and wastefulness, which is turning much of its land arid.

In December 2013, the World Resources Institute ranked Pakistan among the 36 most water-stressed countries in the world. Global warming and population growth are increasing the strain.

Framed by the federal water and power ministry last month, the policy promotes water-efficient technologies and conservation irrigation methods to enhance farm productivity in the country of 191 million people.

“Ensuring sustainable availability and conservation of fresh water resources to meet surging domestic, industrial, agricultural, energy and environmental needs, adapting water sector to climate change, waste water recycling, flood water management and rainwater harvesting are among key objectives of the policy,” Abid Sher Ali, state minister for water and power, told Climate Home.

The country’s agriculture sector gulps around 96% of around 170 billion cubic metres of freshwater resources annually. It is the main focus of the water conservation measures proposed in the policy.

Report: Pakistan ordered to enforce climate law by Lahore court

The minister described climate change as a major threat to the country’s water security.

Sher Ali said: “Shifting and declining rainfall, increased glacier melt and a galloping population mean that water availability for agriculture, industry and domestic sectors would get affected badly.”

A report by the Planning Commission of Pakistan, based on data from the Water and Power Development Authority of Pakistan, indicates in 1951 per capita water availability was 5,650 cubic metres.

By 2010, that figure shrank to 1,000 cubic metres and it is set to fall to 800 cubic metres by 2025, when Pakistan’s population is rises to 221 million, the report said.

According to Pakistan Water Gateway, a non-governmental water-research portal, groundwater levels in the country are dropping by a metre a year.

“If groundwater depletion continues at its current rate, the country is surely headed for widespread water poverty in next few years,” Muhammad Arshad Khan Laghari, lawmaker and chair of a parliamentary committee on water and power, told Climate Home.

A man walks along a glacial water stream below a snow-covered mountain in Gulkin valley in northern Chitral district of Pakistan (Photo: Saleem Shaikh)

Spreading urbanisation in Pakistan also means more pavement and less chance for water to percolate into the ground, warned Daanish Mustafa, professor of water-resources geography and environmental management at King’s College London, in a 2013 report.

The situation calls for rainwater harvesting as emphasized in the water policy to recharge the groundwater resources, said Pervaiz Amir, water-policy expert and country director of the Pakistan Water Partnership, a chapter of the Geneva-based Global Water Partnership.

He recommends building reservoirs in villages, towns and near cities to make up for lost groundwater.

Report: Pakistan submits target-free climate plan to UN

Nearly 70% of Pakistan’s 291 millimetres of annual rainwater gets wasted because of poor storage facilities and accumulation of silt in the country’s water reservoirs, said Qamar uz Zaman Choudhary, former director-general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

“Planning for water resources development and management should be at the heart of the policy and be done in co-ordination with the cross-sector policies and projects such as agriculture, irrigation and industry sectors,” he suggested.

Federal Planning and Development Minister, Ahsan Iqbal, says the country requires a minimum storage capacity of 40% of the water available in the Indus river system throughout the year. But the country’s storage capacity is only 7% and decreasing due to sediment build-up in reservoirs.

This gives Pakistan a stored water supply to meet its needs for just 30 days.

“In Pakistan, planners and policy makers across different sectors, including agriculture and industry, energy and health now have … a daunting challenge before them of increasing the country’s water storage capacity,” Iqbal said.

Hydrologist Shabaz Khan, former head of the water and sustainable development section at UNESCO, Paris, said the country needs increase investment in water storage infrastructures.

Equally important are water-saving farming practices and less thirsty crop varieties, he said. “Techniques like drip irrigation that allows water to trickle slowly to plant roots; sprinkler irrigation that sprays water on crops instead of flooding the fields, and pitcher irrigation in arid and semi-arid areas whereby farmers bury clay water pitchers underground that allow water to seep out according to soil dryness should be seen as vital part of policy measure for water conservation.”

The post Pakistan unveils plan to tackle looming water crisis appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Flickr/Alejandro Arango)

By Kieran Cooke

Pakistan has some of the largest coal reserves in the world and it is starting to use them for power generation.

Within the last month, Islamabad has signed a number of financial and technological agreements with China aimed at exploiting massive coal reserves at the Tharparkar mine in Sindh province, in the south of the country.

Under the terms of the agreements, 3.8 million tonnes of coal will be produced each year at the Tharparkar opencast mine to fuel a 660MW power plant and other facilities.

The estimated cost of the project is US$2 billion: China’s banks and private companies will supply US$1.5bn in loans, while Pakistan will contribute US$500m in private and public finance.

High risk

Scientists say the mining and burning of coal is one of the main drivers of climate change from human causes. The coal at Tharparkar is mainly lignite – one of the least energy-intensive and most polluting types of coal. 

Pakistan is thought to be one of the countries most at risk from climate change: in recent years it has endured a number of floods and droughts, and in the summer of 2015 more than 1,200 people died in a searing heatwave. 

Despite government declarations that it would prioritise climate change, Pakistan has shown little appetite for tackling the issue.

At the recent climate summit in Paris, Pakistan pledged to reduce its emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases by 5% over 2012 levels by 2030 – a figure sharply criticised as being far too modest by a number of the country’s own climate experts.  

The energy produced by the lignite deposits at Tharparkar will be mainly directed at helping alleviate serious power shortages in Karachi, a city of more than 20 million people which is Pakistan’s main industrial centre.

Oil and water

At present Pakistan depends on fossil fuels for 65% of its electricity, while hydro makes up 30% of the mix. There are also three nuclear power plants, and wind and solar are fast-growing energy sources.

Environmentalists say the new coal-powered power plants will only worsen the country’s serious pollution problem. Karachi is already among the world’s most polluted cities. 

The development of the Tharparkar coal field is part of an ambitious multi-billion dollar Pakistan/China economic development programme aimed at linking the remote western provinces of China to Karachi and other ports on the Arabian Sea. 

China – the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases – has pledged to cut back on the use of coal for power generation.

But critics say Beijing is pursuing contradictory policies – cutting back on pollution at home, while encouraging heavily polluting projects abroad.

This article was produced by the Climate News Network

The post Pakistan signs coal mining deals with China appeared first on Climate Home News.

Lahore gate. Most federal politicians hail from the Punjab, while low carbon projects are in opposition-held province (Pic: Pixabay)

By Megan Darby

When the UN deadline passed last week, Pakistan was the fifth biggest emitter not to have submitted a climate pledge.

Yet top climate official Arif Ahmed Khan told Aamir Saeed, Islamabad correspondent for Climate Home, his department delivered a draft plan to the prime minister’s office four weeks ago.

It set out three options for greenhouse gas emissions cuts from business as usual by 2030. The preferred target is 10%, with half conditional on international support. That rises to a maximum 18-20%.

At the UN General Assembly last week, PM Nawaz Sharif spoke of the importance of reaching a climate change deal in Paris this December.

He said: “We will need to respond with common but differentiated responsibility to the threat posed by climate change.

“Partisan interests must not stand in the way of an ambitious and collective commitment to halt and reverse the damage done to our planet.”

So far, Sharif has not backed that up with action to tackle emissions at home.

Hall of shame: Who hasn’t pledged yet to UN climate pact?

Sources close to the matter blamed provincial rivalry, inter-departmental battles and bureaucratic caution.

The federal government is dominated by Punjabi politicians, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province stands to benefit most from low carbon policies, with big hydropower and reforestation potential.

Run by centrist opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – best known as a frontier of the war on terror – has an ambitious plan to go carbon neutral by 2018.

But negotiations are handled at a federal level, where the climate ministry has ignored the province’s plans.

Meanwhile, the planning ministry has been putting pressure on the prime minister to aim for emissions cuts of just 2%, fearing embarrassment if the higher target is not met.

And the resignation of climate change minister Mushahidullah Khan in August – over a controversial interview on unrelated matters –  left a leadership gap.

Officials are hoping to resolve the matter before Sharif makes an official visit to the US on 17 October.

Imran Khan: Pakistan policies to tackle climate a ‘joke’

“The bureaucrats are always trying to be safe rather than sorry,” independent expert Kashmala Kakakhel told Climate Home, explaining the low draft targets.

The plan lacked detail on low carbon investment opportunities, she added. “It is just a laundry list at the moment. It is not clear in terms of what it is already doing, what it plans to do with existing funds and what it would do in addition, with international support.”

Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan was even blunter in an exclusive July interview with Climate Home, calling the national strategy “a joke”.

Chair of the centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party and champion of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s clean development plans, he accused the government of failing to fund climate policies.

Report: China billions drive Pakistan coal power expansion

China is investing billions in coal power stations in the country, which provide badly needed energy at a high cost to the climate, locking in high emissions for decades.

Experts warn the region is acutely vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and flooding as climate change kicks in.

Last month, a farmer won a lawsuit against the government in the High Court, arguing it was failing to protect citizens against such impacts.

“For Pakistan, climate change is no longer a distant threat – we are already feeling and experiencing its impacts across the country and the region,” Justice Syed Shah said. He hauled in officials and ministers to explain their inaction.

It stands in contrast with neighbouring India, which launched its pledge on Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday.

New Delhi set out a vision of low carbon development, with a target to cut emissions for each unit of GDP 33-35% by 2030.

In total, 146 countries met the UN’s 1 October deadline, covering 90% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The post Pakistan PM delays climate pledge over provincial rivalries appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Flickr/Umer Malik)

By Malini Mehra

Pakistan’s federal government must start implementing its climate change plans a judge at Lahore High Court said last week, ruling on a legal challenge brought by a farmer.

Lambasting the inaction of national and provincial authorities, Judge Syed Mansoor Ali Shah said there had been “no progress on the ground” despite a National Climate Change Policy since 2012 and an implementation framework on the books.

In his September 14 judgement Shah ordered the establishment of a national Climate Change Commission (with named members) with a clear remit to ensure effective implementation, along with a number of other practical institutional measures.

The case against the Pakistani government had been brought to Lahore High Court’s Green Bench by an individual petitioner, Asghar Leghari.

Report: Around the world in 5 climate change lawsuits

Using public interest litigation (PIL), Leghari who relies on agriculture for a living, charged the government and relevant authorities with failing him as a citizen.

He accused them of failing to develop the required resilience to climate change as required under the government’s own framework for implementation of National Climate Change Policy 2013.

And he highlighted the many serious threats to Pakistan as a consequence of climate change – in particular water security and food security as being the most immediate.

Shah also faulted the government for ignoring its own timetable for implementing priority actions, and making no effort to develop adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change.

Imran Khan: Pakistan’s climate policies are “a joke”

Justice Shah, who describes himself as pro-poor and pro-development agreed with the case presented and concluded “the most serious threat faced by Pakistan is that of climate change”.

His court order stated, “For Pakistan, climate change is no longer a distant threat – we are already feeling and experiencing its impacts across the country and the region. The country experienced devastating floods during the last three years. These changes come with far reaching consequences and real economic costs.”

The judge ordered all of the federal government’s main ministries – from the Cabinet to Foreign Affairs, Finance, Revenue, Planning and Development to the ministries for climate change, food security, water, power and disaster management – to appear before him and explain themselves.

A similar order was issued to all relevant provincial level authorities.

In depth: Pakistan’s climate change laws

In a bold move, the entirety of Pakistan’s civilian government with responsibility for climate change-related impacts was hauled before his bench. In what must count as a miracle of judicial efficiency this happened within one week of the judge having heard the case.

Within one month of having heard Ashgar Leghari’s case, Judge Shah had summoned all of the country’s main officials before him; appointed named climate change focal points for each government department; addressed individual capacity needs of departments; and appointed a named Climate Change Commission to ensure implementation the Pakistan’s climate change framework.

The Commission is now due to meet on October 1 and tasked with coming up with implementation targets by December.

In an interview with the author, Judge Shah emphasised the proceedings had not been adversarial.

His intention was not to “put officials on the mat” but to help them, he said. Senior government officials had admitted in court to receiving no response from ministries to requests on what action they had taken to implement the government’s own climate commitment.

He noted that many were “totally at sea” with “no idea what was going on or what climate change was”, and stressed the need for greater awareness raising and capacity building.

And he characterised the case as having “jump-started” the government’s climate change efforts at a time when they had been “totally dead”.

Report: Pakistan flood and drought fears dominate climate plan

Using a human rights-centric approach invoking fundamental rights and constitutional duties, the judge had enforced within a month what others, including civil society and legislators, had failed to do for years.

The Leghari decision reveals the under-used power of the courts. Both the Leghari and the Urgenda case brought against the Dutch government were at the centre of discussions in London this week among eminent jurists on emerging climate change jurisprudence and adjudication.

The courts can bring remedies and will now increasingly be used to enforce political accountability and ensure climate justice. Litigation need not cost the earth.

The case probably cost less than a week’s stay in Bonn for Pakistan’s climate negotiators. Justice can also be swift. Judge Shah’s judgements were lightening swift by any standards and commendably pragmatic.

They set a model for fast track adjudication of climate change-related issues that are too often dismissed as too complicated for the courts to handle.

The Leghari case highlights a simple but fundamental truth – individuals can and do make a difference. The case was brought by one man and judged by one man. Each made history. The case now sets a new high water mark for climate adjudication.

As domestic commitments through INDCs (national action plans) are likely to be a key outcome of Paris, Leghari shows that no government should get a free pass. Citizens have rights and governments cannot make empty promises.

Bottom-up legal accountability through the courts could become a powerful enforcement mechanism. “Don’t tell me, show me” should become the new motto for domestic implementation secured through monitoring by active citizens. Leghari and Lahore have shown the way.

Malini Mehra is on the board of India Climate Dialogue

The post Pakistan ordered to enforce climate law by Lahore court appeared first on Climate Home News.

A heavily laden vehicle in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (Flickr/Lip Kee)

By Aamir Saeed in Islamabad

Pakistan’s northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, a frontier of the war on terror, has set an ambitious plan for itself of becoming carbon neutral by 2018.

Under the Green Growth Initiative, it is planning to spend some 1,120 billion rupees (US$17 billion) in forestry, energy and agriculture sectors to achieve the goal.

Launched a year ago in Peshawar by former international cricket star Imran Khan, now chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, the initiative aims to help rebuild a region riven by violence and natural disaster.

Sitting on the mountainous border with Afghanistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has since 2001 become known as a backdrop for Islamic militancy.

US forces tracked down and killed terrorist chief Osama bin Laden in the province’s city of Abbottabad in 2011. The following year in its Swat Valley, a Taliban gunman shot schoolgirl campaigner Malala Yousafzai.

Terrorism has abated somewhat, with a 60% reduction in attacks in the first three months of 2015 compared to the previous year, according to official figures.

Yet Pakistan’s second poorest region remains vulnerable to extreme weather, with 73 people killed and 1,118 homes damaged in monsoon flooding this July.

Imran Khan interview: Pakistan policies to tackle climate a ‘joke’

In an exclusive interview with RTCC, Malik Amin Aslam, chair of the Green Growth Initiative, said its primary focus was on clean energy development to avoid carbon emissions.

This includes a pipeline of hydropower projects that could generate 3,500 megawatts, with a budget of 1,100 rupees.

That would be supported by 20 billion rupees worth of tree planting by 2018 to sequester carbon in the province, added Aslam, who is also global vice president of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

Pakistan pumped out nearly 150m tonnes of CO2 in 2008, with emissions rising at 6% a year, according to its climate change ministry.

Giving details about the hydro projects, Aslam said the work on around 500 megawatts is in the short term pipeline through private sector partnerships. Another 356 small community-based hydro projects to off-grid locations are already under way and almost 40% are in the final stages of completion.

The government hopes that will help people to switch away from using kerosene for lighting and heating.

“The development model in the province aims to prove that economic development and environmental care do not necessarily have to be contradicting concepts but, through considerate planning, can be aligned to go hand in hand,” said Aslam.

Accounting for less than 0.5% of global emissions, Pakistan remains an minor contributor to the issue. But it is vulnerable to floods, droughts and extreme weather and needs up to US$15 billion a year to climate-proof its economy and cut emissions.

Pakistan suffered intense floods in 2010, 2014 and 2015 (Flickr/US Institute of Peace/Shabbir Hussain Imam)

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has had 40% of Pakistan’s forest reserves and has committed its budgetary funds to one of the largest afforestation/forest protection plans by the name of the “billion tree tsunami”.

The province’s commitment to climate change has recently been acknowledged at the global level with its inclusion under the global “Bonn Challenge” – the largest carbon sequestration initiative being currently undertaken in the world.

Talking about recent floods in Chitral, Aslam said that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa lies in the pathway of melting glaciers and is most impacted by flash floods and freak weather patterns.

“While the rest of the world can afford to keep on talking about climate change and blowing a lot of political hot air, our province has to face the issue head on and does not have the luxury of time on its side,” he said.

Study: Pakistan, Bangladesh face ‘state failure’ as globe heats up

The provincial government has been using its own resources to meet the challenge. Aslam said it could do more with finance from the international community.

If this December’s climate summit in Paris can rekindle carbon trading schemes, he calculated the forest projects could be worth US$6-800 million.

A small unit has been set up in the Pakistan Forest Institute to start taking stock of the carbon stored in forests, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) based techniques.

In a province strained by priority issues of dealing with the war on terror and social pressure of poverty alleviation and unemployment, it remains a challenge to keep on committing the budgetary funds for carbon neutrality and green initiatives, Aslam admitted.

Green jobs

If the government succeeds in achieving carbon neutral Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the people will benefit primarily through the development of an alternate green economy in the province, with jobs and opportunities for responsible growth.

“All the initiatives including the development of hydro projects and the forestry protection have already started generating a groundswell of jobs for the people,” he said.

Aslam said that a third party assessment would be carried out to look into all the claims made by the provincial government of becoming carbon neutral.

“We are hopeful that with the projects already underway, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would meet and possibly overshoot its target of carbon neutrality by 2018,” he said.

To cope with adverse impacts of the climate change, many countries have started thinking about the concept of carbon neutrality. Norway has committed to a carbon neutral growth model by 2050 and also the state of Hawaii has announced measures for achieving carbon neutrality.

The post Pakistan frontier province targets carbon neutrality by 2018 appeared first on Climate Home News.

Chemicals used in air conditioning units have a potent global warming effect (Flickr/小 雪球)

By Megan Darby

Global efforts to phase out HFCs, a group of potent warming gases used in fridges and air conditioners, are making slow progress.

That is the upshot of UN-backed talks under the Montreal Protocol in Paris last week.

Pakistan blocked calls to start formal negotiations, citing concerns the HFC substitutes will not work as well in its hot climate.

“It’s extremely frustrating that after another week of discussions we are yet to start formal negotiations,” said Clare Perry, head of climate at the Environmental Investigation Agency.

“Time is running out and substantial political efforts need to be made to clear the path towards a rapid global agreement on HFCs.”

The “vast majority” of countries supported a phase-out, said Perry, an observer at the talks.

Report: African countries drive progress on HFC phase-out

A “Friends of the HFC Amendment” group including Senegal, South Africa and Colombia sought to overcome objections, the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development reported.

Saudi Arabia, which had previously resisted, even came up with a constructive proposal, according to IGSD head Durwood Zaelke.

He told RTCC on the final day of talks: “I would say the mood is the best it has been in the entire discussion of the HFC amendment. Progress has been steady, if slow.”

Diplomats have slotted in another meeting ahead of a planned Dubai summit in November.

But Pakistan’s objections mean they could struggle to reach agreement in time to influence the outcome of critical climate talks in Paris.

Report: Close the dangerous emissions gap in 10 steps

HFC emissions have a warming effect thousands of times stronger than carbon dioxide.

The influential New Climate Economy report earlier this month named an HFC phase-out as one of ten key steps to prevent dangerous climate change.

It could save 1.1–1.7 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year by 2030, the report said – roughly what Canada emits annually.

The issue is being dealt with through the Montreal Protocol, a treaty set up to eliminate ozone-depleting CFCs.

HFCs serve a similar function – ironically, they were introduced as a more ozone-friendly alternative to CFCs – and are produced by the same chemical companies.

Phase-out proposals

There are four different proposals on the table to phase out HFCs: from Europe, North America, India and island states.

New Delhi-based think tank the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) analysed the different ideas.

The Indian submission was the least ambitious, it found, reducing HFC consumption only 55% from business as usual. But it was the most equitable in its distribution of cuts between rich and poor countries.

CSE ventured an alternative that would increase that to 82%, while driving improvements in the energy efficiency of fridges and air conditioners.

“We believe that a framework that is fair and ambitious will be acceptable to all parties. Our framework is an attempt in that direction,” said CSE deputy director general Chandra Buchan, presenting the findings in Paris.

Indian and European officials promised to consider the scheme.

A separate study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory concluded the climate benefits of an HFC phase-out could be doubled with simultaneous energy efficiency improvements.

By 2030, a two-pronged approach could avoid the need for up to 1500 medium-sized power plants globally, its analysts calculated.

The post Pakistan blocks calls to phase out super-warming HFCs appeared first on Climate Home News.

Environmental disasters could undo years of progress in tackling poverty (Source: UN/Kibae Park)

By Ed King

India will face a huge influx of refugees from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh should high degrees of climate change develop, according to one of the country’s senior military officials.

Drought and flooding linked to sea level rise would place the governments of those countries under “severe stress” and lead to large-scale migration, said Vice Admiral Pradeep Chauhan, head of the Indian Naval Academy.

“In India, this would combine with an internal population shift from rural to urban areas, further increasing demographic pressure in cities,” he wrote in a climate risk study backed by the UK Foreign Office.

A significant influx of migrants could further destabilise what is known as India’s “Red Corridor”, a belt of land running through east India where Marxist rebels are fighting the state.

“The temptation to solve this problem through military intervention could become overwhelming,” he added.

Report: Bird flu offers lesson in averting climate calamity

Current greenhouse gas emissions will “likely as not” mean temperature increases of 4C above pre-industrial levels by 2150 said the study, with severe implications for human health and crop yields.

A N M Muniruzzaman, a retired Bangladeshi major general, said millions of people in his country could be displaced as a result of sea level rise.

“Flooding is projected to increase in many regions, but it could be a particular problem in South Asia due to the contribution of melting glaciers,” he said.

Planning battle

Chauhan’s and Muniruzzaman’s comments were based on a war gaming exercise held in Delhi in March, hosted by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

Former military officials from India, China, the US, the UK, Bangladesh, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland took part, along with scientists and diplomats.

“In the game, it was notable that increasing numbers of refugees contributed to several large countries becoming more isolationist in their foreign policies,” says the study.

“Participants in our exercise considered it extremely likely that climate change would exacerbate humanitarian crises over the coming decades.”

Report: Climate change could lead to China-India water conflict 

Long term water stress in South Asia could become so severe previous agreements over resource sharing between India, Pakistan, China and Bangladesh “could be broken”, the study warns.

“At the high degrees of climate change possible in the long-term future, participants in our scenarios exercise considered that there could even be risks to the political integrity of states that are currently considered developed and stable.”

Alex Randall from the UK-based Climate Change and Migration Coalition said the document presented a “one sided view of migration” seeing it only as a security threat.

“While there is growing evidence linking climate change to changing patterns of migration, there is little evidence suggesting that migrants and refugee present the kind of security threat suggested in the report,” he said.

“There is also strong evidence indicating that migration could become a key way for some people to adapt to climate change.”

The post Pakistan, Bangladesh face ‘state failure’ as globe heats up appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Asia Society/Flickr)

By Aamir Saeed in Islamabad

Pakistan’s commitment to tackling climate change is a “joke” lacking proper funding and support from government officials, says cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan. 

In an exclusive interview with RTCC, Khan praised the creation of a national climate change ministry, but questioned the level of support allocated to it by prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s administration.

“They (the federal government) need to back it up with supportive funding and capacity which are both missing,” he said. “The paltry funds allocated to the ministry of climate change this year are a joke.

“It actually shows the totally ridiculous and confused priorities of the government which is hell bent upon wasting public finances on extravagant schemes like green and yellow taxis, freebie laptops and building the Guinness world records for the most expensive metros in the world.”

According to the latest budget, funding for the climate ministry is 39.752 million rupees (US$390,779).

Analysis: Pakistan and India ‘unprepared’ for heatwaves

Khan is chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which governs the northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, and harbours ambitions to become the next prime minister of Pakistan.

The government’s priorities need to be redirected towards issues which are directly impacting people like climate change and not driven by the urge to feed what he described as corrupt mafias.

Instead, he suggested the government to focus on capitalising on the large renewable resources of green energy like hydro, solar, wind and nuclear to end energy crisis.

“In addition we need to reverse our fast depleting forest resources which we are doing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. All of this is sensible development for Pakistan and provides global climate mitigation measures for the world,” he said.

Report: Pakistan to invest in carbon markets, lure investment

Pakistan is one of nearly 200 countries working on plans for a global climate deal, set to be signed off this year and come into force from 2020.

The government has yet to submit its contribution to this deal, and Khan stressed the need to emphasise how it is suffering what he termed “climate injustice” at the hands of rich and most-polluting countries.

“Rich countries should not only assist Pakistan in mitigation and adaptation efforts but also compensate us for the tremendous economic losses we face each year,” he said.

Adapting to climate change is an issue of life and death for Pakistan, he said, “we need to create a focused adaptation plan to deal with climate related disasters and also invest in climate resilient infrastructure development in the country.”

Human cost

The country’s epic floods of 2010 led to the deaths of 1,985 people, displacing 18 million people and damaging 12 million homes.

This year a recent heat wave that hit the southern city of Karachi claimed the lives of 1,300 people, while a freak typhoon hit Peshawar, provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

“We unfortunately do not have the luxury to waste time on our side as far as climate change is concerned. We in Pakistan are actually living through the age of urgent climate adaptation,” said Khan.

“We are facing its full impacts including the recent heat wave which turned the streets of Karachi into an oven and the spate of disastrous climate triggered mega-floods over the past few years.

“All of these are collectively and very unpredictably impacting our people and our agriculture which is not equipped to cope with these rapidly shifting weather patterns.”

Adaptation urgency

According to Khan, the country’s economy faces costs of between US$6-10 billion per year to cope with investing in a new green energy system and prepare for floods, droughts and heatwaves.

His government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has made climate change a priority, he said, with the allocation of two billion rupees (around $20m) to focus on green initiatives.

“Our focus is on forestry, national parks, green energy development – all of which create natural climate mitigation and adaptation measures. In comparison, the Punjab government slashed their environment ministry budget by 75% from last year,” he said.

Projects include the “Billion Tree Tsunami” – which has been accepted under the global Bonn Challenge to slow deforestation rates.

It was not enough on its own, he acknowledged, but argued planting forests was the “easiest and most effective way” to deal with the challenge.

As for cricket, Khan dismissed suggestions the sport could suffer as a result of rising global temperatures.

“It’s the first time I am hearing of this impact but I feel Test cricket will find a way to adapt itself and survive,” he said.

The post Pakistan policies to tackle climate a ‘joke’, says Imran Khan appeared first on Climate Home News.

Intense heat in India caused some roads to melt (Pic: GeoBeats News/Screengrab)

By Saudamini Das, Priya Shyamsundar and Saleem Shaikh 

The recent searing heat waves in the sub-continent have proved fatal to hundreds. The unforgiving heat has spared no one. The very young, the very old and those in the prime of their lives have all been scorched. 

Over four thousand people have died of severe heat strokes in Pakistan and India in two distinct heat wave events during May and June. While the extreme weather event has subsided, thanks to declining temperatures, the number of the heatstroke victims in Pakistan has only continued to spike.

Though the 1.4 billion people of India and Pakistan are no strangers to long spells of sizzlingly hot and humid weather at this time of year, it is clear that both local populations and their governments were unprepared for the severity of impacts.

The heat waves have led to enraged public protests in many parts of the continent and officials have been flayed for their inability to supply electricity and water to avert deaths and sickness.

Report: Indian heatwave deaths blamed on global warming

What made the matters worse was the inadequate response to forecasts by meteorological departments of both countries and official failure to spread alerts through the mass media.

The human body maintains a core temperature of 37.6 degree Celsius and skin temperature of 35 degree Celsius. When temperatures rise, people sweat and the body cools down because of evapotranspiration.

When high heat is accompanied by high humidity, perspiration doesn’t dry up and skin temperature increases, raising core body temperatures.

This explains the recent high mortality in coastal areas such as in India state Andhra Pradesh, where temperatures may be lower than the hinterland, but humidity is high.  This may also explain the deaths that occurred in Karachi.

As earth’s temperature warms because of the continued growth in climate-altering carbon emissions, there is an increasing likelihood of occurrence of severe heat waves in the years to come.

Interview: Fear of floods, droughts drive Pakistan climate plan 

The latest fourth IPCC assessment report warns that the climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters.

There is also evidence showing that a warming climate increased the probability of the occurrence of individual ‘heat’ events such as the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Russian heat wave and the 2013 Australian summer heat.

The trend toward more extreme weather events, combined with expanding urbanization, means that an increasing number of people  incountries such as Pakistan and India are exposed to higher temperatures. This makes climate change a ‘public health emergency’.

The heat wave events underlie the need for the viable heat wave crisis management plans to avert further loss of lives.

After a heat wave in 2010 killed an estimated 1344 people in the Indian city of Ahmedabad, the administration established a ‘Heat Health Action Plan’.

The plan consists of four pillars: educating the public about heat-related illnesses and preventative measures and an early-warning system for the public, local governments and local medical officers. City officials worked with scientists to develop a forecast system.

Leadership 

There is strong need for Pakistan to learn lessons from such experience and replicate the Heat Health Action Plans in different vulnerable urban areas of the country.

Another strategy that would be relevant for Pakistan, is the action taken by the Odisha State Government in India. The state of Odisha has actually witnessed a reduction in mortality per heat wave day in recent years due to some interventions, even though the number of heat wave days has remained high.

In 1998, an extended period of heat and humidity killed some 2040 people in Odisha. In response, the State Government launched a heat wave awareness campaign from year 2003 focusing on behavioural changes.

State agencies widely disseminated heat wave related tips through newspapers, radio, television, local volunteers, health and Anganwadi workers etc. At the beginning, this awareness campaign was much more intensive in districts where Disaster Risk Management Program was running.

In 2010-11, the South Asia Network for Developmental and Environmental Economics (SANDEE) sponsored a study to evaluate the effectiveness of this awareness generation on heat wave mortality.

Heat wave mortality data of the 16 districts of Odisha, where the disaster risk management (DRM) project was implemented, were statistically examined and compared with mortality in other 14 districts where no such programme ran.

Initially, the DRM districts had more deaths from heat waves compared to non-DRM districts. However, after the DRM project that ran for 6 years, the scenario reversed and DRM districts had lower death rates.

Based on this analysis, it can be asserted that there is indeed a strong connection between awareness campaigns, behavioural changes and heat wave mortality.  Exposure and death can be minimised through some simple actions.

Hot weather and high humidity distress everybody, but the poor are the worst affected. The rich and the middle class respond and adapt to the heat. The poor, who are without cars, air conditioners or fans and even water, are unable to change their work patterns and get badly exposed to severe heat.

Yet, here too, government action goes a long way. A recent survey by authors indicates that 99 percent of rickshaw pullers, cobblers and other lower income workers surveyed in two cities in Odisha were aware of the Odisha government’s continued heat wave awareness campaigns.

On average, during very hot weather, 73 percent of the workers reported that they drink water, 65 percent eat cucumbers and onion before leaving their homes, 63 to 64 percent carry water bottles and an umbrella, 26 percent wear light-color cotton clothing, 21 percent do not walk barefoot and 33 percent do not work during noon hours.

Conclusively speaking, there is a link between information provided by the government and lower deaths. Thus, programmes such as the one in Odisha need to be replicated in other states that are struggling with heat related mortalities.

The world and South Asia are likely to face more hot days and hot nights in the coming years. In the long run, adjustments such as increased use of air-conditioning or dense green cover may be possible.

However, right now, awareness generation about simple behavioural changes will go a long way in offering protection. Governments need to also start preparing their official public systems and media outlets to inform the public about symptoms and precautions.

We also need to give thought to our own actions.  Our actions that influence global warming may well result in affecting our lives and health or, at least, that of our children.

Saudamini Das and Priya Shyamsundar are associated with the Kathmandu-based South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics (SANDEE) and Institute of Economic Growth in Delhi.  Saleem Shaik is a science and climate change writer and policy analyst based in Pakistan. 

The post Pakistan and India ‘unprepared’ for heatwaves appeared first on Climate Home News.

(pic: http://www.qasolar.com/)

By Aamir Saeed in Islamabad

Pakistan will set up a carbon market with technical assistance from China to cut greenhouse gas emissions and lure foreign investment.

The ‘Carbon Neutral Pakistan’ project will receive 7.752 million rupees (US$76,205) in state funding out of its total cost of 313.96 million rupees (US$3.85m) in next year’s Public Sector Development Programme.

Pakistan’s parliament gave final approval to the project in next year’s budget  on June 23 along with 39.752 million rupees ($390,779) in the programme to combat climate change.

The developing country is vulnerable floods, droughts and extreme weather and needs up to US$15 billion a year to climate-proof its economy and cut emissions.

Pakistan pumped out nearly 150m tonnes of CO2 in 2008, which are rising at 6% a year, according to its climate change ministry.

Chinese advice

Arif Ahmed Khan, Secretary at the Ministry of Climate Change, told RTCC in an exclusive interview that local carbon markets would be set up with technical assistance from China for internal adjustment of carbon emissions and carbon credits.

“The carbon markets would help industrialists and other sectors to sell and buy carbon credits locally besides initiating a competition for greener technology,” he said.

The secretary said the project is being designed to meet future requirements that international community may impose on developing countries if an international deal on climate change is reached in COP-21, Paris summit in December of this year.

“Pakistan can also lure foreign investment in emission cuts in the coming years if we succeed in setting up the carbon markets to facilitate industrialists and people from other sectors,” he said.

The United Nations carbon market has spurred $356 billion of investment in emission cuts, encouraging climate-protection policies in at least 10 nations including China, India and Brazil, according to the Washington-based policy institute, Center for American Progress.

The secretary admitted creating a market was complicated, and said the ministry is working to simplify it for industrialists and investors with help of relevant experts and specialists. “We will also seek help from China to determine a viable carbon pricing formula,” he said.

Report: China billions drive Pakistan coal power expansion

The ministry has initiated the process of hiring relevant specialists and experts to materialise the goal of setting up the carbon markets and make them operational as soon as possible, he said.

“We are planning to make the carbon markets operational in next couple of years but this is not an easy task to do,” he said, “it’s a complicated process and we also need financial and technical support from rich countries to make it happen.”

The impact of the project cannot be quantified in a short span of time rather its positive outcome on the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions cut may be significant in the coming 10 to 15 years, the secretary said.

Under the project, the ministry would also initiate capacity-building projects for all the sectors that contribute in the greenhouse-gas emissions including industry, livestock, forests and agriculture, he said.

“Officials and individuals will be coaxed to cut the carbon emissions by adapting to green technologies and new techniques,” he said.

Interview: Fear of floods, droughts dominate Pakistan climate plan 

Environment and climate change experts, however, remain skeptical about capability of the ministry to carry out the project and suggest the government to first focus on capacity-building of the relevant officials.

“Carbon Neutral Pakistan” sounds a good project in theory but the ministry does not have the capacity to work withother departments to design viable projects to cut the emissions, said Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, author of Pakistan’s climate change policy and the UN Secretary General’s Special Advisor for Asia with the World Meteorological Organisation and the Asian Development Bank.

He said that Pakistan’s carbon emissions will reach 400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2030 if the government fails to initiate a viable project to cut the emissions.

Pakistan should tap Green Climate Fund and other available international financing resources to initiate projects like carbon neutral Pakistan and cut the emissions in different departments like industry, forestry and agriculture, he said.

“The government should encourage the industrialists to convert to green technologies by offering them incentives in taxes and duties,” he said, urging the rich countries to help Pakistan acquire cheap and green technology from the international markets.

The post Pakistan to set up carbon markets to cut emissions, lure investment appeared first on Climate Home News.

(pic; http://www.qasolar.com/)

By Saleem Shaikh in Islamabad

One of the world’s largest solar plants has been opened in Pakistan with the aim of supplying clean, reliable energy and helping alleviate the country’s chronic power shortages.

The plant, spread over more than 200 hectares of desert land in the south of Pakistan’s Punjab province, will generate 100 megawatts (MW) in its initial phase and more than 300MW by the end of the year, according to government officials.

More than a third of Pakistan’s population do not have access to electricity, and power shortages are a serious impediment to economic growth.

Inaugurating the plant, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, said: “Since I became prime minister, my one goal has been to eliminate darkness in Pakistan and bring lights back to the country.”

Mushahidullah Khan, the Federal Minister for Climate Change, told the Climate News Network that the government is determined to make use of what it sees as the country’s enormous solar energy potential.

Energy crisis

He said: “Tackling our energy crisis is the top priority of the present government as we believe it is vital in order to achieve economic growth, alleviate poverty, boost agricultural and industrial production and – through the provision of clean, solar power – reduce the country’s carbon footprint.”

The plant – called the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Power Park – was constructed in less than a year by China’s Tebian Electric Apparatus Stock Company, at a cost of US$131 million.

China has been forging ever closer economic links with Pakistan as part of a plan to link China’s western Xinjiang region to the Pakistan port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea. The government in Islamabad says China is likely to invest more than $30 billion in solar and other power projects in Pakistan in the coming years.

At present, more than 60% of Pakistan’s power is generated from oil and gas, and about 30% from hydro power.

Pakistan is considered to be one of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Erratic flow

In particular, the flow of water in the Indus river – upon which millions depend for hydro power and for irrigating crops – has become increasingly erratic due to changing rainfall patterns, glacial melt in the western Himalayas region, and the impact of widespread deforestation.

Government officials say they are determined to push ahead with more solar and wind projects throughout the country.

Asjad Imtiaz Ali, chairman of Pakistan’s Alternative Energy Development Board, said the development of solar and other renewable energies was hampered in the past by inconsistencies in government policy, and by a lack of understanding of clean energies.

“Solar energy is especially suited to remote areas in the country where connectivity to the national grid is difficult, such as Punjab, Baluchistan and Sindh provinces,” he said.

As part of the push for more solar projects, the government recently announced the abolition of duty on the import of solar panels.

This article was produced by the Climate News Network 

Saleem Shaikh is a freelance climate change and science journalist based in Islamabad, Pakistan.

The post Pakistan opens 100MW solar plant, govt plans clean energy drive appeared first on Climate Home News.

Flooding in Pakistan in 2010, the worst in the country’s history, affected 21 million people (Source: UN)

By Aamir Saeed in Islamabad

Pakistan is planning to submit its plans for tackling climate change to the United Nations by September this year as the country’s Ministry of Climate Change is finalising the INDC (intended nationally determined contributions) draft.

In an exclusive interview with the RTCC, federal minister for climate change Senator Mushahid Ullah Khan said that Pakistan’s INDC would mainly focus on mitigation and adaptation in six sectors including energy, transport, agriculture, forestry, industry and waste.

“How much will we mitigate and what will be our carbon emission level is still under consideration,” he said. “We will submit our INDC by September and reveal exact targets as soon as prime minister Nawaz Sharif approves the draft.”

The INDCs are the commitments that are required from more than 190 countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for addressing climate change beyond 2020. The proposals are intended to set the stage for the negotiation of a new global climate pact in Paris, in December 2015.

Pakistan is finalising its INDC with technical support from World Bank, Lead-Pakistan, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Energy Research Center of the Netherlands (ECN) and Pakistan Center for Climate Research and Development (CCRD).

Climate tracker: Who has pledged what for Paris summit?

The minister said that Pakistan remains to be one of the most vulnerable countries to adverse impacts of the climate change like floods, droughts, climate and weather variability; therefore effective adaptation measures will also be part of the INDC.

“The biggest challenge for Pakistan is to ensure survival of floods and droughts affectees and traditional crop patterns,” he said, adding Pakistan is a glacier-fed country and it would be facing severe water shortages and flooding in the next 25 to 50 years.

Pakistan suffered over US$25 billion loss in economic damages to public infrastructure, agriculture, irrigation network, health and educational facilities from five consecutive floods since 2010, he said. “We now need over 35 billion dollars to recover these damages.”

The minister said Pakistan needs support of rich countries to cope with the adverse impacts of the climate change as the country requires US$10-15 billion annually to ensure mitigation and adaptation measures.

“We urge the developed countries that are in fact polluting the world through their industries to extend financial support to Pakistan besides transferring technology and capacity building in climate change related fields,” he said.

Pakistan federal minister for climate change, senator Mushahid Ullah Khan (Pic; Aamir Saeed/RTCC)

On the UN’s flagship Green Climate Fund, he said the prime minister has appointed his ministry as designated national authority for the fund and the process is underway to identify an Accredited National Implementing Entity (ANIE) to benefit from it.

Climate change is the biggest issue for Pakistan than terrorism and extremism as it has been wreaking havoc across the country on all sectors including agriculture, health, economy and infrastructure, he said.

“The adverse impacts of climate change create an immediate demand for relocation of resources to be spent on relief and rehabilitation instead of development,” he said.

The minister said that coal is not necessarily Pakistan’s energy future but the country has got a lot of its reserves that could be exploited for cheap energy generation.

“We think that coal can help us generate cheap energy but at the same time we are looking for investment in renewable energy sources like solar, wind and hydropower,” he said.

Report: Pakistan shelves six coal-fired power projects
Report: Erratic downpours hit Pakistan’s harvests

He said the developed countries should extend financial support to Pakistan to buy clean technology to be used in coal-powered generation plants or make direct investment in solar, wind and hydropower projects.

The climate change is also having direct impact on foreign investment as the country cannot provide investors with enabling environment due to looming threats of floods, droughts and water-shortages, he said.

“Pakistan may be losing billions of dollars foreign investment each year in different sectors only due to the climate change,” he said, “the rich countries should come forward to help Pakistan and other developing countries if they really want to deal with the menace of climate change.”

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has recently raised the status of the climate change division to a ministry, to deal with the threat and the minister also expects impressive increase in funds of the ministry in the annual budget to be announced in June this year.

“We are conducting an inclusive exercise of consultation with all relevant stakeholders to come up with some cogent recommendations; so that the ministry could meet the upcoming challenges of the climate change,” he said.

The post Fear of floods and droughts dominate Pakistan climate plan appeared first on Climate Home News.

A Beijing power plant. Expected Chinese investment in coal plants for Pakistan has not come through (Pic: Flickr/Bret Arnett)

By Aamir Saeed in Islamabad

Pakistan has halted work on six coal-fired power projects of some 14,000 megawatts due to environmental concerns, lack of needed infrastructure and foreign investment.

Prime minister Nawaz Sharif and former president Asif Ali Zardari broke ground of the first mega coal power project in January 2014 to help the country overcome its energy crisis.

The cost of the entire project was estimated at US$6-8 billion and it was scheduled to be completed in 2017.  The government was expecting to generate 6,600 MW of electricity from the project.

Separately, Pakistan’s Punjab provincial government announced five coal-based power projects of 7,400 megawatts to be installed in different cities, but they have also been stalled.

Report: Climate change blamed as erratic downpours hit Pakistan’s harvests

Omar Rasool, a top official in the water and power ministry, confirmed the projects have been put on the back burner and the government was now planning to use liquefied natural gas (LNG) to generate electricity.

“The government is well aware of the environmental hazards of the coal-fired power projects; therefore it is planning to use alternative sources like the natural gas to produce electricity,” he said.

However, Rasool said the government was still negotiating with the Chinese government to secure investment for at least two coal-based power projects.

“A viable energy mix solution may help Pakistan overcome its energy crisis but we need foreign investment to execute these projects,” he said.

First shipment of 60,000 tonnes of the LNG arrived in Pakistan on March 26 from Qatar and the government would supply this to four independent power producers, he said.

“The LNG would help generate around 1,000 megawatts additional electricity and the government would further boost supply of the gas to increase the generation in summer,” he said.

Report: Coal mining banned in India’s Mahan forest

According to government data, Pakistan has coal resources of more than 185.5 billion tonnes. If half of these resources were exploited, it would be enough to generate 100,000 megawatts of electricity for 30 years.

Syed Jamshed Rizvi, president of The Institution of Engineers Pakistan, said the government’s tall claims about the coal-fired power projects stand completely exposed as it is now accepting the disadvantages of its overambitious schemes.

“We have numerous coal reserves available but they are useless for us unless extracted and used for generation of electricity,” he said.

He suggested the government start only viable projects to address the energy crisis and avoid overblown rhetoric, which only erodes its credibility with the public.

“The government was planning to import coal from China for the initial three years but now it realised that it has neither the funds to import the coal nor the needed infrastructure to transport it to plants in different cities,” he said.

Pakistan faces a year-round electricity crisis which rises to around 7,000 megawatts in summer. The government was planning to bridge the shortfall by building coal-fired power plants with help of foreign investment, especially from China, but failed to do so.

Report: Global coal growth slows, but impact on climate set to rise

Arshad Abbasi, an energy expert at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, said the government should have conducted basic environmental studies before launching the projects.

In South Asia, the total coal consumption in 2012 remained around 685 million tonnes, of which 98% was used in India, with the highest share consumed in the power sector, he said.

“The share of electricity generated by coal in India is 71%, the highest in the region, but at the same time the coal-based thermal power plants are the single biggest source of air pollutants, causing trans-boundary fog in winter, change of weather patterns, including monsoon rainfall,” he said.

Being a signatory to the Minimata Convention on Mercury, Pakistan is required to control and reduce emissions of mercury and mercury compounds from point sources including coal-fired power plants, he said.

“The coal-fired power plants are the largest contributors to mercury emissions worldwide, so the government should think twice before initiating such projects,” he said.

Report: Green Climate Fund urged to ban coal funding

Pervaiz Amir, an environmental expert and former member of the prime minister’s Task Force on Climate Change, wants the government invest the coal funds in hydro power sector to reap multiple benefits.

“If the government uses the coal funds to make a canal from its Chenab river, this would help irrigate the country’s two biggest deserts, Cholistan and Thar, besides overcoming energy crisis and food-insecurity,” he said.

He accused China of offering obsolete technology to Pakistan for its coal-fired projects, which would only add to the country’s environmental woes.

“The coal-based power projects will spread different diseases like tuberculosis in the respective areas besides polluting our water resources,” he said, suggesting the government to turn to  clean energy sources like wind, sun and hydro-power.

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(Pic: Flickr/Umer Malik)

By Saleem Shaikh

Anxious farmers in Pakistan waited for weeks for the rains to arrive – but when the skies finally opened, the downpour was so intense it destroyed crops and put the harvest in jeopardy. 

“We weather scientists are really in shock, and so are farmers, who have suffered economic losses due to crop damage,” says Muzammil Hussain, a weather forecasting scientist at the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).

“The wind from the southeast has carried moisture from the Arabian Sea. Normally, the northeast wind brings rain during winter, and the southeast wind brings monsoon rains in summer. But the pattern has changed this year because of what is believed to be global warming.”

Farmers across much of Pakistan plant winter crops of wheat, oilseed and potato late in the year and wait for rains to water the land.

This year, the rains arrived more than three weeks late and were unusually heavy, accompanied by violent hailstorms. Along with the rains, temperatures also dropped.

Ibrahim Mughal, chairman of the Pakistan Agri Forum, says excessive moisture due to heavy bouts of late rain is likely to lead to outbreaks of fungus on crops, and production could be halved.

“If the rains come a month ahead of the harvesting time [April to mid-May], it is always disastrous,” he says. “It can hit production for a crop such as wheat by between 20% and 30%, and if the rain is accompanied by hailstorms and winds then the losses can escalate to more than 50%.”

Report: Pakistan plans special force to protect forests from timber mafia 

Arif Mahmood, a former director general at PMD, says the onset of winter across much of Pakistan is being delayed by two to three days every year, and there is an urgent need for farmers to adapt to such changes.

“Over recent years, winter has been delayed by 25 to 30 days, and also the intensity of the cold has increased, which has affected almost every field of life − from agriculture to urban life.”

This year has also been marked by abrupt changes in temperature. Ghulam Rasul, a senior scientist at PMD, says big swings in temperature are likely to add to the problems being faced by millions of farmers in Pakistan.

“The average temperature during the first two weeks [of March] was between 11 and 13 degrees Celsius, but now it’s on a continuous upward trend and has reached 26˚C over the space of two days,” he reports.

“The winter rains in the north and central area of Pakistan, and the sudden rise and fall in temperature, are related to climate change.”

Serious damage

Similar storms and late winter rains have also caused serious damage across large areas of northern India.

The states of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra – the two most populous states in the country – have been particularly badly hit.

In Maharashtra, snow and landslides have blocked roads and cut off towns and villages.

In Uttar Pradesh, there are fears that more than 50% of the wheat crop has been lost in the eastern part of the state.

This article was produced by the Climate News Network

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(Pic: Cassimiro Aranha/Flickr)

By Aamir Saeed in Islamabad

Pakistan’s northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province plans to raise a special force to protect forests from powerful timber mafia, generate jobs for youth and protect rights of forest communities. 

The provincial government has allocated one billion rupees ($9.83 million) for the project as the force would be equipped with sophisticated weapons, trucks and other necessary gears to guard the forests, besides imparting them commando training.

The scheme is part of the Green Growth Initiative launched a year ago in Peshawar by former international cricket star Imran Khan, who is chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which governs the province.

Launching a “Billion Tree Tsunami” campaign late last month, Khan said that his party has decided to leave a better Pakistan for the future generations and the forest protection is one of the steps to make it happen.

“The timber mafia chopped down forests worth 100 billion rupees illegally in the last ten years in the province and we aren’t going to happen this again,” he said.

Khan said that youth from forest communities would be recruited for the new force named as “Forest Nigahbans” to protect the forests from the timber mafia, fire and goat grazing. “We have declared a jihad against timber mafia that cut down trees in connivance with politicians and forest department officials,” he said.

Growing problem

Pakistan has total forest cover on 4.4 million hectares, 5.01% of the total land area while the current rate of deforestation is 27,000 hectares per year, one of the highest in the world, according to official data.

At the same time, the deforestation accounts for nearly 20% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the world while they absorb 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide each year, says Center for International Forestry Research.

Ishtiaq Barqi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Forest Minister, told the RTCC that his government has slapped a complete ban on cutting of trees and transportation of wood to other provinces in the country.

“The mafia had marked some 24 million cubic feet wood in the forests to chop down when our party came into power in 2013. We have stopped it too,” he said.

Barqi said that his government plans to increase the forest cover in the province from 20 percent to 22% by 2018 through a massive afforestation drive. “At least 30,000 hectares of additional forests will be planted and Nigahban force will look after them, besides keeping any eye on the mafia,” he said.

The forestry sector contributed $1.3 billion to Pakistan’s economy in 2011, which is approximately 0.6 % of the GDP while some 53,000 people are directly employed by it.

The country has 213 million metric tons of carbon stocks in living forest biomass while its 6.6% of green house gas emissions came from land-use change and forestry in 2011, according to Global Forest Watch.

Local rights

The government should give right of ownership to the forest communities to engage them in sustainable management and forests’ protection, said Jamshed Ali Khan, General Secretary of Sarhad Awami Forestry Ittehad, a non-governmental organisation that works for rights of forest communities in the province.

“The people will automatically start looking after the forests in their areas if the government announces at least 80% forest royalty for them,” he said.

He said the government has caused over six billion rupees loss to the national exchequer and royalty holders by imposing a ban on transportation of the timber. “The government banned the transportation of timber in 2013 and millions of cubic feet timber has been lying along the roads and in forests since then,” he said.

Many initiatives to increase the forest cover have already been taken but they always failed to achieve the result due to poor post-plantation care, said Tahir Rasheed, General Manager at Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD)-Pakistan.

“The Nigahban force may prove as a good initiative to protect and increase the forest cover if the government succeeds in engaging the forest communities,” he said.

A committee comprising members of the provincial assembly, notables and youth of forest areas should be constituted to ensure effective monitoring of the plan, he suggested.

He also suggested the government to plant only indigenous tree species in the province to increase the forest cover as this would help preserve local flora and fauna and prevent future complications too.

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Severe flooding has hit large parts of the Punjab in India and Pakistan (Pic: UN Photo/Evan Schneider)

By Ed King

India’s government plans to assess its vulnerability to extreme weather events linked to climate change, according to reports.

The news comes after parts of India and Pakistan were hit by extreme flooding, leaving 460 dead and thousands more homeless.

“We want to understand the reasons behind such events and are also exploring international cooperation, as extreme weather events are inter-related with changes in climactic conditions in North Pole impacting the Indian monsoon,” the New Indian Express quoted an official from the ministry of Earth sciences saying.

But in echoes of last year’s catastrophic flooding in Uttarakhand, critics have accused the Delhi administration of being underprepared for the heavy rains.

In one case, soldiers in Jammu and Kashmir arriving with supplies were pelted with stones by flood victims furious at the slow response.

Chandra Bhushan, deputy director general of the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) said the scale of the crisis exposed the lack of climate adaptation planning at state level.

“The Kashmir floods are a grim reminder that climate change is now hitting India harder,” he said.

“In the last 10 years, several extreme rainfall events have rocked the country, and this is the latest calamity in that series.”

Since 2005 severe floods have hit Mumbai, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Leh and Uttarakhand, leading to thousands of deaths and millions of dollars of damage.

Research by the London-based Overseas Development Institute suggests natural hazards such as drought and flooding are likely to keep millions below the poverty line by 2030.

Planning

Officials at the Indian environment ministry say they have “no opinion” on the relationship between global warming and the rise in flooding, despite evidence the two are linked.

The CSE says it is clear seasonal heavy rains are getting stronger, and have been exacerbated by unplanned developments along river banks and on flood plains.

Earlier this year UN’s IPCC climate science panel reported an “increase in extreme rainfall events” across South Asia.

“All models and all scenarios project an increase in both the mean and extreme precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon,” it said.

In 2011 a special SREX UN study focused on managing risks from natural disasters concluded India was highly vulnerable to future climate impacts.

Response

The government says it plans to expand the country’s network of forecasting stations, building nine extra radars in Himalayan cities by 2017.

But it remains unclear whether the national government is willing to amend and enforce planning laws to make sure buildings and communities are better equipped to deal with intense events.

Other key concerns include inadequate government regulation of land use, rising levels of deforestation and a proliferation of hydropower plants in the Himalayas.

Sunita Narain, director general of CSE, said the Modi administraion needed to integrate climate change into all future development and infrastructure plans.

“To begin with, the Indian government must discard its ostrich-like policy and get out of its denial mode,” she said.

“We will have to see the linkages between climate change and the events such as those unfolding in J&K.”

The post After the floods, India investigates climate change links appeared first on Climate Home News.

By Ed King

A global climate deal in 2015 could hurt Pakistan’s coal-reliant economy, according to a senior UN official.

Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, a special envoy of the World Meteorological Organisation and lead author of Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy, called on the government to  halt plans for a wave of new coal power plants across the country.

“As soon as the new carbon-emission regime is agreed upon, the world will put carbon tax on all the exporting countries,” he said in an interview with Pakistan’s Business Recorder website.

“This probably may not be more than five to ten years later. That is why China has started to shift towards cleaner energy; same is the case for India. But Pakistan is going in the opposite direction, commissioning more and more coal-based power project.”

Pakistan’s official ‘Energy Yearbook‘ for 2012 reveals fossil fuel imports costing $14.5 billion account for around a third of its annual consumption.

Chaudhry, who ran Pakistan’s Meteorological Department from 1996-2010, said current energy plans by the government in Islamabad could undermine the country’s long term economic footing.

“If we don’t take stock, we would be locking Pakistan country for the next 25-30 years into coal technology,” he said.

“We need to increase generation from hydro resources and get our energy mix right.”

According to the US Energy Information Administration, Pakistan had an electrification rate of 67% in 2010.

Power cuts and load shedding, where high demand leads to the shutdown of transmission lines, have previously been estimated to cost the economy $13.5 billion per year.

Last month the IPS press agency reported that four new coal power plants will become operational by 2016, requiring coal to be imported from Indonesia and South Africa. Domestic coal production peaked in 2006.

And while some leading development banks in the US and EU are moving away from coal, in February the Asian Development Bank pledged $900 million in assistance for a new 1200MW plant in Jamshoro, which will come online in 2018.

Report: Pakistan faces ‘environmental cataclysm’ warn officials

Pakistan is seen as acutely vulnerable to changes in climate. Earlier this former state minister Malik Amin Aslam Khan said institutions are “ill prepared” for extreme weather events.

In 2010, 2011 and 2012 heavy floods hit the country, resulting in the deaths of thousands and the evacuation of millions from their homes and farmlands.

There are also growing fears the seasonal monsoon may be shifting away from Pakistan to Afghanistan, with long term impacts for crop yields.

But despite these warnings, recent government actions suggest that climate has fallen in the list of priorities.

And in a damning indictment of a lack of action since the recent floods, Chaudhry said “no significant investments” had been made to the country’s disaster risk response (DRR) capabilities since 2010.

“The problem is with the flash floods’ warning system, which only exists in one area across the whole country. That warning system only gives two to three hours for emergency response because of the nature of the flash floods.”

In June 2013, finance minister Ishaq Dar announced in his budget speech a cut of over 62% in annual spending for the Ministry of Climate Change, which was also been downgraded to a division.

And Chaudhry said he hoped Pakistan’s prime minister would reconsider his planning after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s climate summit in September, where heads of state are set to gather to discuss various responses to the threats posed by global warming.

“I hope if Nawaz Sharif attends this conference, then it would help in the country’s sensitisation to climate change challenges.”

He added: “As in other developing countries, the climate-change ministry is not deemed a ‘key’ ministry like finance or planning ministry in terms of decision-making here. The status of this division needs to be enhanced in Federal structure with the appointment of a minister of climate change.”

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Heavy flooding caused by monsoon rains in Punjab Province, near the city of Multan, Pakistan, in 2010 (Pic: UN Photos)

By Saleem Shaikh

Scientists and opposition politicians in Pakistan have strongly criticised the government for what they say is its neglectful attitude towards coping with the challenges posed by climate change.

“The government’s insufficient response to shifting weather patterns continues to cost the national economy dearly and is depriving people of their livelihoods, particularly in the agricultural sector,” Malik Amin Aslam Khan, a former state minister for environment, told a climate change seminar in Islamabad.

Local institutions are ill-prepared in disaster management, said Amin Aslam , and there is an urgent need for more co-ordination with various international bodies in order to cope with climate extremes.

The seminar, Climate Resilient Economic Development in Pakistan, was organised by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, a Pakistan-based not-for-profit organisation, with the aim of pressuring government to prepare better for the impacts of climate change.

Pakistan, with a population of nearly 180 million, is considered to be one of the countries most vulnerable to changes in climate.

Devastating floods

In each of the years 2010, 2011 and 2012, devastating floods hit the country, with hundreds of people killed and millions forced from their homes. IAnd in 2013, the farming sector was hit by a serious drought.

Qamar uz Zaman, a former director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, told Climate News Network that there are signs that the summer monsoon rains – vital to millions of the country’s farmers – are well below normal, which only adds to the country’s problems.

Germanwatch, an independent organisation promoting sustainable development policies, produces an annual assessment of countries around the world most exposed to climate-related risks.

In its latest risk survey – based on events and statistics collected for the year 2012 − Pakistan is ranked third most exposed country, after Haiti and the Philippines.

Ahsan Iqbal, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission of Pakistan, told Climate News Network that the government was prevented from responding to climate change due to a lack of funds.

He said: “The country has suffered economic damage of more than US$16bn as a result of floods in recent years – and it now needs more than US$20bn to restore infrastructure to pre 2010 levels.”

Delegates at the seminar said the government was reducing, rather than increasing, expenditure on climate-related mitigation and adaptation projects. A Climate Change Division, overseen by Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister, had a budget of only US$350,000.

Grave challenges

“The paltry allocation for the Climate Change Division indicates that the government is dismissive about the grave challenges of climate change, despite highlighting its far-reaching impacts on the economy,” said Shafqat Kakakhel, a former deputy executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme.

Deforestation is seen as one of the main reasons behind the floods and devastation of recent years.

Rehana Siddiqui, a forest researcher at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, told the seminar that Pakistan had the highest deforestation rate in Asia, and if trees continued to be cut down at the present rate, the country’s forests would vanish completely within 35 to 40 years.

Siddiqui said that tree loss meant more flash floods, landslides and erosion, yet there was no national programme on how to regenerate forest cover.

This article was produced by the Climate New Network

Saleem Shaikh is a climate change and science journalist based in Islamabad.

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Heavy flooding caused by 2010 monsoon rains in Punjab Province, near the city of Multan, Pakistan. (Pic: UN Photo/Evan Schneider)

By Nivedita Khandekar in New Delhi

A study of the five countries sharing and relying on the Indian sub-continent’s great rivers shows that Bangladesh is the only one that is taking climate change seriously. 

Even before this year’s delayed and inadequate monsoon recently brought some relief to the Indian sub-continent, researchers discovered widespread concern by local experts that their governments are mismanaging the water supplies on which a billion people depend for survival, and giving insufficient attention to climate change.

A new report, Attitudes to Water in South Asia, explores domestic water management and transboundary water issues in five countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. It focuses on two river systems, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and the Indus-Kabul basins, which are vital to the lives of a vast population.

Chatham House – the home of the Royal Institute of International Affairs − worked on the report with India’s Observer Research Foundation, and similar partner organisations in the other four countries.

Their findings are based on evidence from almost 500 interviews conducted in the five countries in 2013 with a range of water experts, government officials, policy-makers and decision-makers from NGOs and the private sector.

Observing that water is “highly politicised in the region, with strong links to food security and the livelihoods of the large proportion of the population dependent on agriculture”, the report underscores the relation between the domestic mismanagement of water in each country and the failure to address transboundary water relations.

Few agreements

“In spite of the shared river system and the interdependencies, South Asian governments have signed few bilateral water agreements and no regional ones,” the report says.

“Those transboundary water treaties that do exist face criticism on a number of grounds: for time periods too short to too long; and for their lack of provision for environmental factors or new challenges, such as climate change.”

Yet the ability of countries in South Asia to deal with the possible effects of climate change will be in part determined by their ability to manage water, and also how they deal with weather events such as floods and droughts.

“While many respondents across the region felt that other immediate concerns were more pressing, the majority of those interviewed expressed concern that their governments were giving the issue of climate change insufficient attention,” said Gareth Price, a senior research fellow at Chatham House and lead author of the report.

For instance, in Afghanistan, even where respondents had some knowledge of the body responsible for setting government-wide policy on climate change, they were equally certain that the amount of practical action on ground was virtually zero.

In Bangladesh, where most respondents were acutely aware of climate change and its possible effects, many said their government was doing better. There was a general consensus that ministers had made climate change a priority by setting aside funds for adaptation and mitigation.

However, Afghani and Bangladeshi respondents noted the lack of availability of important policy documents − currently available only in English − in local languages..

And Indian respondents felt that climate change was not a major priority for the government, although it was widely recognised that it could wreak havoc on the country.

“Inadequate water storage leaving farmers vulnerable to the vagaries of weather suggest an urgent need for appropriate investment in such facilities in order to not just increase agriculture production, but also to ensure farmers have an option to adjust to changing climate,” the report says.

Food security

Climate change could also have a big impact on the transboundary water relations, the report warns.

Some respondents from India and Bangladesh feared that a variation in the timing and intensity of monsoons could affect agricultural production and weaken food security, “driving tension between the two countries over access to water in a dry period”.

Interviewees from Nepal perceived climate change as a “future threat”, in comparison with immediate challenges and the need to increase access to water and electricity.

Most respondents felt that Nepal’s approach was “inadequate” and pointed out the gap between national plans and local implementation.

Pakistani respondents believed their country’s approach to climate change lacked “urgency”. They particularly pointed out that a Ministry of Climate Change had recently been reduced to a mere division of another ministry, and had had its funding slashed by 62%.

Brink of cataclysm

The report quoted a climate change expert working with the Pakistan government, who said his country stood on the brink of an environmental cataclysm, with the seasonal monsoon shifting away from traditional catchment areas towards Afghanistan.

“This trend, reinforced by climate change, [has]increased the likelihood of extraordinary rainfall patterns, cloudbursts, and flash floods,” he said.

The researchers’ recommendations Include: improving domestic water management, and rainwater harvesting; enhancing data collection, data sharing and discussions between the five countries, particularly in relation to floods and droughts, and the management of watersheds and river basins; easing water demand through less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods.

They also stress that existing treaties should be revisited, ensuring that they address technological advances, environmental factors and climate change.

This article was produced by the Climate News Network

Nivedita Khandekar is a journalist based in New Delhi, focusing on environmental and developmental issues. She has worked at the Press Trust of India, India’s premier news agency, and the Hindustan Times, one of the leading national daily newspapers in India. Her journalistic achievements include a national award for environmental reporting, an award for reporting on health issues, and a Rural Reporting Fellowship.

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(Pic: Bigstock)

By Jake Schmidt

Unfortunately the Asian Development Bank (ADB) agreed to fund a new coal-fired power plant, using scarce public resources to invest in more climate pollution.

While the Board of the ADB approved the $900 million Jamshoro Coal-Fired Power Plant in Pakistan, the Board vote came with a huge amount controversy including the first no vote of the U.S. on a coal power plant, no votes of other countries, and votes of disapproval from a growing list of countries.

The project was the first test of the commitments from important countries to end public funding of coal projects overseas, except in very rare circumstances. So will this be the “Medupi Project” of the ADB – the last coal power plant funded by this institution – given the divisive nature of the project amongst its major investors?

The ADB has been a major funder of coal power plants – funding over $1.69 billion since 2007 (see figure*). It hasn’t been the worst amongst the development banks or direct government funding, but it hasn’t been the best.

So will this be the turning point for the ADB or is this a sign that they will still bring forward new coal-fired power plants? Let’s hope this is the “Medupi Project” of the ADB. The similarities of these two projects are eerie.

In 2010, the international development banks agreed to invest almost $4 billion in a massive coal-fired power plant in South Africa – the Medupi Project.

The project became extremely controversial and led to the World Bank staff essentially cringing at any new coal-fired power plant that was brought before them. In fact, the World Bank president was reported to have directed the staff to put in place a de facto ban on new coal-fired power plant projects in order to avoid that level of controversy in the future.

The scar tissue from that project was deep and lasting. So even without a policy that limited coal financing, the World Bank Group staff didn’t proactively propose coal plants as they had done in the past and been poised to do before Medupi. The World Bank later formalized a policy to restrict coal projects to “rare circumstances”.

The Pakistan project generated even more resistance amongst many of the key shareholders. Despite serious reservations with the Medupi project, the U.S., U.K., and Netherlands abstained.

The Pakistan project generated a no vote from key shareholders – the U.S., Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden – and abstentions from others – Austria, Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Turkey, and the U.K. This is the first time that the U.S. voted no on a coal project at a development bank and showed some signs of strong disappointment from a growing number of countries.

[Note: An abstention is a sign that a country isn’t thrilled with a project, but it is weaker signal than a no vote as it doesn’t put the full weight of those governments behind its opposition.]

Whether the Jamshoro coal-fired power plant project in Pakistan will leave the same deep and lasting scars as the Medupi project are uncertain at this stage.

Some recent quotes from staff at ADB are a bit 18th century in terms of their framing and perspective on energy (see the quotes in these two pieces ClimateWire pieces here and here). So will the U.S. and Europeans countries push for a reform of the energy sector lending at the ADB?

Will Germany, Japan and South Korea finally join the group voting no on public financing for coal projects that are driving climate change?

Let’s hope the Pakistan project becomes a “Medupi moment” that ensures that this is the last coal power plant that the ADB approves.

* Based upon data in a forthcoming NRDC report.

Jake Schmidt is the international climate policy director at Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). This article first appeared on the Switchboard blog

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