In these kind of talks just a couple of years ago, very few people at the table were able to even entertain conversations on the phasing out of fossil fuels.

But at the  outset of Cop28, 106 countries jointly advocated for the fast decline of fossil fuels, a notable increase from the 80 countries demanding the same at Cop27 in Sharm el Sheikh. Over 120 countries have so far committed to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. 

The energy transition has finally been dragged centre stage. The Overton window has shifted significantly, and this is in no small part thanks to the resolve and determination of global south negotiators and their allies in the movement for climate justice.

Adaptation and justice

If we land an ambitious energy package in Dubai, it will once again be thanks to climate vulnerable nations, namely small islands states and Latin American countries in the Ailac grouping.

Wealthy blocs like the European Union must urgently address the adaptation concerns voiced by groups like the African group.

Insisting that the just transition work program exclusively focuses on in-country workforce issues while disregarding the global inter-country dimension  is a pitfall that affluent nations must evade.

Negotiations for a global decision to phase out fossil fuels and a renewable energy target are above the paygrade of the mid-level diplomats that do the negotiating in the first week of Cops.

Ministers arriving today, at the start of the second week, is like Champions League football after watching non league.

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Like football, the higher league doesn’t always reflect a difference in the quality of performances, but the sophistication of tactics applied, and the stakes that are on the table. 

The Cop28 presidency will continue with a double layer of ministerial pairs between them and the energy negotiations, as Denmark and South Africa are facilitating discussions on the Global Stocktake. At the same time, discussions will be further outsourced to ministers from Singapore and Norway.

A significant portion of the UAE team comprises of Cop26 presidency staff, who were the first to apply a strategy of engaging countries in one-on-one negotiations rather than collective ones.

This approach undeniably furnishes the presidency with a knowledge advantage. The UAE could strike a backroom deal with big powers like the US and China rather than driving a transparent process and working with the champions of this process, the small island states and vulnerable countries to land the most ambitious outcome possible.

Different paces

Beyond navigating the broader landscape, achieving such an ambitious outcome demands a closer examination of critical issues within the substance of the energy package: Differentiation, urgency, and support.

At the heart of the fossil fuel phase-out and renewable energy target deal lies the need for fairness. This fairness must be reflected in language that unequivocally states developed countries take the lead, phasing out at a faster pace than lower income countries.

Currently, some developed nations propose a 2050 timeline for the energy transition, without a corresponding earlier hard timeline for developed countries – a clear incongruity. 

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A potential solution involves introducing qualitative language emphasizing the leadership role of developed countries while respecting the distinct starting points of low-income nations.

Instead of a 2050 timeline, countries should prioritise immediate progress in this decade. Finally, the energy package necessitates an integrated support plan, acknowledging the investment and support requirements in the global south outside China.

It should establish processes to ensure necessary support, potentially including direct links to the new collective quantified goal on finance and Cop29.

EU and US action needed

Climate-vulnerable nations have once again demonstrated leadership, but a pivotal political question looms: Will some developed countries align with them and form a progressive coalition?

At Cop27 last year, a few countries — Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia — opposed language on the phase-out of all fossil fuels.

The Egyptian presidency at the time was complicit in hiding behind these blockers. The signals from Cop28 President Sultan Al Jaber are inconsistent at best.

So far, more countries than at Cop27 in Egypt have voiced support for phasing out fossil fuels, but closer coordination among those countries fighting for an ambitious energy outcome will be needed.

To achieve this, Europeans, especially, must be more forthcoming and move beyond mere lip service on adaptation and support for the energy transition. 

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The global goal on adaptation remains a pressing concern, with negotiators making minimal progress. Ministers must transcend indicators and dimensions to expedite resilience preparedness.

This is EU negotiator Wopke Hoekstra’s first Cop. It will not only test his ambition but also his grasp of global climate politics and ability to collaborate with climate-vulnerable nations.

Positive actions could create a promising foundation, with the Canadian minister Steven Guilbeault expected to play a crucial role in fossil fuel discussions as a bridge builder.

A potential starting point for the US delegation would be to broaden their focus beyond coal to avoid alienating India, China, and other emerging economies.

Whether the European Union heeds the call of vulnerable nations will be a central question as we enter the decisive days. The prospect of bidding farewell to fossil fuels and embracing renewables gives real hope in our battle against climate chaos.

Andreas Sieber is the associate director of global policy & campaigns at 350.org.

The post To land fossil phase-out deal, rich nations must add fairness appeared first on Climate Home News.

This offers hope in our battle against climate chaos. The target is not only aligned with limiting temperature to 1.5C, it is reasonably likely to be agreed in Dubai.

But to realise this aspiration necessitates a significant increase in financial support and financial reform.

The good news is that upscaling renewable energy will to some extent displace fossil fuels by outperforming oil, coal and gas economically.

Yet, to phase out fossil fuels at the speed and scale needed to keep global warming to 1.5C, we need a managed decline and a decision and implementation plan to deliver the phase out.

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These decisions, and in particular the fast-tracked scale-up of renewable energy must be anchored with concrete processes and resources to implement it. Above all, this means finance for the Global South.

Along with a global target to triple renewable energy, G20 leaders acknowledged this needs a yearly investment of $4 trillion by 2030 in their communique – not a mundane reckoning.

Yet, the G20 went on to say that these goals would be met “within existing policies”, an absurd claim.

Flatlining finance

Surely, the G20 leaders are briefed well enough to know the opposite is true – rather some G20 leaders wanted to deflect pressure on updating their national targets by 2030. To not end up with a hollow renewable target and energy package at Cop, we need finance.

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Across the Global South outside of China, we are confronted with a stark reality: Investment in renewable energy has remained more or less flat since the Paris Agreement.

If we are to reach $4tn investment in renewables, numbers needs to more than double from the current $1.7 trillion allocated to clean energy.

Out of these $1.7tn, only about 15% are invested in the Global South outside China – despite that being where roughly 7 out of 10 humans live today.

The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2030 we will need around $1.9 trillion yearly investment in the Global South outside China.

It estimates that three-fifths ($1,14tn) of this will need to come from private and two-fifths ($760bn) from public sources. But what is hindering renewables really taking off in so many countries?

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It’s not low renewable energy potential. For example, Africa is home to three-fifths of the top solar sites in the world but in the last two decades just 2% of global investments in renewable energy were made in Africa.

In high-income countries, 81% of green investment is funded by the private sector. In emerging and developing countries, the private share is a mere 14%.

Structural injustice

There are structural and historical injustices pertaining to the global financial system, including debt and ongoing extractivism.

One aspect of this is the high cost of capital: The interest rate to finance renewable energy in rich countries has historically been around 3-4% while usually exceeding 10% in emerging and developing economies. This difference matters.

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These interest rates can be broken down into micro-risks – those directly related to the project –  and macro-risks – those that account for risks like governments and currency risks.

The interest rates for a project itself (micro-risk) tend to be lower than in rich countries, but then you pay an additional 5-10% simply for investing in a certain country (macro-risk).

Usually, the cost of capital is unfairly biased against the Global South, not providing a “rational” cost of capital. For example, overestimating exchange risks.

Cop28 must underpin the tripling of renewables with tangible political commitments and processes to unlock finance: debt cancellation at scale, $100bn in concessional finance, and $200bn in grants yearly.

Grids and transmission lines are usually predominantly financed by public finance and illustrate clearly why public and private investments are heavily interdependent as private investment requires functioning grids.

Energy access

Another critical role of public investment will be providing energy access. Over 760 million people are suffering from a lack of access to electricity, the majority, 600 million on the African continent.

More than half (55%) of those households which are yet to gain access to electricity will require mini-grid and off-grid solutions. Clearly, decentralized renewable energy is the best-fit.

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This will need heavy public investment if we don’t want to leave these people by the mercy of revenue calculations.

Grids and access are just two examples of necessary investments at scale, which will need support of grants – even with significant debt cancellation. To reach $760bn public investment will need additional $500bn in public investment in renewables yearly in the Global South outside China.

If these $500bn are seen as highly concessional (reflected by a 40% grants ratio), one calculates this will need another $200bn+ in yearly grants.

Some of this is within the realm of Cop, some of this the United Nations climate convention can only call on to be set in motion.

One may say, this is politically impossible or there is no money. But such claims are both cynical and not grounded in facts.

The G20 countries alone provided $1.4 trillion in direct subsidies to fossil fuel companies, and global fossil fuel consumption subsidies last year.

The wealthiest 3m000 people work at the “edge of legality” preserving their obscene wealth, taxing it at only 2% – significantly below what such wealth is expected to provide in yearly returns – would provide $250bn each year.

There is no hope without vision. In fact, taking a step back one realizes the proposals above are less visionary than pragmatic. Global access to just and fair is very much possible.

Andreas Sieber is the associate director of global policy & campaigns at 350.org

The post To triple renewable energy, the Global South needs finance appeared first on Climate Home News.

A global renewables target has been positioned as a centerpiece of the climate talks. The EU was among the first to get behind it in principle and will discuss at their Council meeting.

But there is an unexpected twist. The EU’s executive arm, the European Commission, has asked the EU’s council, which represents member states, to officially approve a negotiation mandate for a global renewables target.

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But their ambition falls short. Globally, we need to reach a yearly installment of, on average, at least 1.5 Terawatt (TW) renewable energy from 2030 onwards to be in line with the Paris Agreement. That’s clear from our own analysis and that of Climate Analytics.

 However, the EUs internal documents only suggest yearly deployment rates which lands at below 1 TW. Even the UAE Cop28 President Sultan Al Jaber has put forward more ambitious proposals.

Why is the EUs global renewable ambition even lower than what a petro state has put forward?  If the EU wants to be a renewable energy champion it needs to significantly up their game.

Why a target is crucial

Cop28 represents a pivotal moment in stopping the world warming by more than 1.5 degrees celsius through the Global Stocktake, a unique mechanism under the Paris Agreement to assess progress and to correct course.

If we are honest, we already know we are not doing enough. What matters is what comes next: Fossil fuels cause three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions.

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If this is the Cop to “course correct”, no outcome will be credible without a centerpiece decision to phase out all fossil fuels –  coal, oil, and gas  – while simultaneously powering up renewables.

A global renewable target is indispensable for guiding the entire energy transition. It provides governments with a benchmark for renewable deployment, informing decisions regarding planning permission, land use, grid connections, and auctions.

Additionally, the target guides governments on how to integrate renewable power effectively, considering factors like grid investments, flexibility, storage requirements, and market design changes.

In the coming decade, much of the newly added renewable electricity capacity will meet the growing electricity demand rather than replacing coal and gas generation.

What a target must entail

Science provides a clear framework for action. By 2050, we must completely eliminate fossil fuels to stay within the 1.5-degree carbon budget. This necessitates a rapid phase-out this decade, resulting in a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.

Formulating a renewable energy target might be more complex. But its crucial and we must get it right.

The International Energy Association’s (IEA) scenarios provide a useful starting point. For achieving a 1.5C-aligned renewable energy deployment, the IEA predicts a peak installation of 1.2TW per year in the 2030s.

UAE’s al Jaber says Cop28 will fast-track phase down of fossil fuels

But this scenario has two significant flaws. First, the 1.2TW scenario assumes unrealistic utilisation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the energy sector.

CCS has long been a deceptive tool of the fossil fuel industry, with limited emissions-cutting potential and exorbitant costs.

A recent Climate Analytics study estimates the emission-cutting contribution of CCS to be 0.1% by 2030. It is only viable in hard-to-abate sectors such as steel production, not energy.

Secondly, the IEA scenario envisions an unsustainable and unattainable growth of biomass. By excluding unrealistic amounts of biomass and CCS, a more realistic estimate for renewable deployment in the 2030s is 1.5 Terawatt.

In fact, the above highlighted Climate Analytics analysis also lands at this number. So there is a real question why the EU is locking itself into a low ambition Renewable Energy goal.

The target’s politics

Those who disguise cynicism for realpolitiks may  say 1.5TW is aiming too high and a global fossil fuel phase out is politically not possible. But both are not only necessary, they are feasible.

This year, the world will add a record 0.44TW of new renewable capacity –  double what the IEA expected for 2020. This represents a jump in renewable installment of about a third compared to last year.

Taking 0.440TW as the 2023 base, we don’t even need yearly growth of a third – a quarter is enough to exceed the 1.6 TW by 2029.

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The EU falls short of what is needed and what we can achieve – but how does it to compare to the position of the UAE?

Al Jaber said: “We must triple renewable energy capacity over the next seven years”. That carries multiple interpretations.

But the most straightforward is this: Global renewable electricity capacity needs to triple from the end of 2023 to 12.2 TW by 2030.

This entails adding an average of 1.2 TW of renewable capacity each year from 2024 to 2030.

Not a linear trajectory

But the growth of renewable energy capacity will not follow a linear trajectory.

Instead, we anticipate accelerating installation rates that would likely propel us well beyond the 1.5TW mark by 2030.

The crucial aspect of Al Jabers statement lies in the phrase “next seven years,”. At the same time, the oil CEO and Cop28 president Al Jaber might cynically push ambition on renewables to not have to reach a decision to phase out fossil fuels.

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At Cop27, a handful of countries  – Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia –  opposed language to phase out all fossil fuels, and so far Al Jaber is positioned to hide behind the same few blockers with vested interests.

At the climate talks in Bonn he infamously stated the phase down of fossil fuels is “inevitable”. The next few weeks will test if the UAE is actually serious about phasing out fossil fuels and powering up renewables.

If the UAE is serious about the energy transition, they will announce a ministerial pair on energy transition as usual for sticky issues in the COP process – to elevate discussions on fossil fuels and renewable energy and unlock progress.

If we win this crucial battle at Cop28, it will not be thanks to a low ambition-EU and the fossil-UAE, but thanks to renewable champions in the Global South like Kenya, Colombia, the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Pacific islands.

Andreas Sieber is the Associate Director of Policy at 350.org and Nicolo Wojewoda is the Director of 350.org Europe.

The post The EU lacks ambition on Cop28 renewable targets appeared first on Climate Home News.