As this European Parliament term began, Fridays for Future school strikes, inspired by Greta Thunberg, were sweeping Europe, with young people demanding that political leaders act decisively against climate change’s mortal threat. 

Five years on, as the parliament entered its final chapter, very different protests erupted in Brussels and across Europe – this time led by farmers, who clashed with police and brought the city to gridlock. The farmers’ grievances were many, from rising energy and fertiliser costs, to cheap imports and environmental rules.  

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Just as Fridays for Future signified growing pressure on politicians to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises, the farmers’ protests have been seen as a stark warning of the rural backlash against doing so. 

In reality, the reasons for the farmers’ anger are more diffuse.     

Climate and forests centre-stage 

In the early days of the current parliament, the school strikers’ message appeared to be getting through. Tackling climate change was  “this generation’s defining task”, the European Commission declared. Within 100 days of taking office, the new Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met her manifesto promise of launching the European Green Deal. 

The following few years saw climate and forests take centre-stage in EU policymaking to an unprecedented degree: from the Climate Law, which wrote into the statutes the EU’s goal to be climate neutral by 2050, to the Nature Restoration Law (NRL), setting binding targets to bring back nature across Europe, and the EU Regulation on deforestation-free products (EUDR), the first legislation of its kind in the world, which aims to stop EU consumption from devastating forests around the world. 

Then came the backlash. 

Despite exit, EU seeks to save green reforms to energy investment treaty

Over the past year, vested industry interests and EU member states have tried to sabotage key pieces of the European Green Deal, including the NRL and the EUDR. 

This pushback against laws to protect the natural world is now a battleground in EU parliamentary elections, with populist, far-right and centre-right parties seeing it as fertile vote-winning territory. 

The centre-right European People’s Party, the largest group in the European Parliament, has been campaigning against key planks of the Green Deal, including the NRL, while promoting itself as the defender of rural interests. 

But the views of the rural constituencies whose votes they covet are not as simplistic or polarised as widely depicted. 

Deep listening 

At Fern, we’ve increasingly worked with people who share the same forest policy goals but are bitterly opposed to one another.

This is why we commissioned the insight firm GlobeScan to run focus groups among rural communities in four highly forested countries: Czechia, France, Germany and Poland. We wanted to find out what those whose concerns have been used to justify the backlash against green laws really think. The results contradict the prevailing narrative. 

All participants – selected with a balance of genders, occupations, political views and socio-economic statuses – felt that forests should be protected by law, and unanimously rejected the idea that such protection measures are a threat to rural economic development or an assault on property rights.

They felt deeply attached to their forests, saw them as public goods, were concerned about the state of them, and had a strong sense of responsibility and ownership towards them. They also wanted to see action to improve industrial forest management practices and mitigate climate change. 

Climate, development and nature: three urgent priorities for next UK government

While there was some sympathy for concerns around too much bureaucracy, even those who expressed this view felt forests should be protected by laws. Moreover, they saw the EU as having a primary role in providing support and incentives, and developing initiatives to fight the climate and biodiversity crises.  

Given how much EU politicians have put rural concerns at the heart of their arguments for rolling back the Green Deal – and are now using them in their election campaigns – it’s telling that their narratives on this do not resonate widely. Even foresters with right-leaning political views saw most of them as extreme and oversimplified. 

The lesson here is that the simplistic, divisive arguments that dominate the public debate over rural people and laws to protect nature do not reflect the complex reality of peoples’ lives or their attitudes. Where a divide exists between those pushing for strong laws to protect nature and the rural communities supposedly resisting them, it’s far from irreconcilable. 

Bridging any such gaps by listening and understanding each other’s perspectives is vital for all our futures. Those elected to the next EU Parliament would be wise to heed this. 

For further information, see: Rural Perspectives on Forest Protection 

The post Right-wing pushback on EU’s green laws misjudges rural views  appeared first on Climate Home News.

But not all its people. Because of the USA’s huge emissions, financial power and  electoral system, our hopes lie largely on those in a few swing states – like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.

In 2020, we spoke to grassroots campaigners trying to boost climate voter turnout in Georgia. They were crucial in swinging the Senate then, which allowed a huge climate bill to be passed in 2022. The planet needs the likes of them again.

1.Who will win the US election?

Of all the world’s elections, the USA’s is the one that matters the most for the climate. The policies of the world’s second biggest polluter swing wildly depending on who is in the Oval Office.

The vote on November 5 is likely to pit Joe Biden against Donald Trump. Polls and bookmakers currently suggest Trump is more likely to win.

That would put a major dampener on climate hopes ahead of Cop29, on November 11.

We know where both men stand. As president, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement. Biden re-joined it on his first day in office and pushed through $369bn of green spending.

On the same day as the Presidential election, Americans will also vote for all the seats in the House of Representatives and a third of those in the Senate.

Republican control of the House of Representatives is a big barrier to US climate finance. Given Democratic turnout is usually higher when there’s a Presidential election, there’s a chance Democrats could win control and at least deliver on their $3 billion promise to the Green Climate Fund.

Donald Trump being sworn in as US president in 2016 (Pic: White House photo)

2.What will the new global finance target be?

Compared to fossil fuels, finance was low profile in 2023 – to the anger of developing countries.

But 2024 should be its year, as countries have to negotiate a new finance goal for 2025 onwards by the time they leave Cop29 in Baku in November.

Expect debate over who should pay and who should receive, as well as how much should be given and to what.

Separately, France and Kenya have launched a taskforce on how to get money for climate which isn’t just from governments.

Options include taxes on international shipping, aviation, financial transactions and fossil fuels.

The US, Germany and others will continue their push to squeeze more money out of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund for climate.

3.Will emissions finally start going down?

Almost every year so far, the world’s humans have pumped out more greenhouse gas than any year before, sparking depressing headlines about “record emissions”.

But 2023 could well be the last year of this.  A report by Climate Analytics finds a 70% chance that emissions will peak in 2023 and start falling in 2024.

The International Energy Agency thinks something similar – but the US government’s forecasters are more pessimistic.

Whether emissions peak or not, the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere will keep going up. A bath tub doesn’t empty because you put less water in it each year – you have to pull the plug out.

Climate Analytics says emissions are likely to peak this year but how fast they decline depends on policies (Photos: Climate Analytics)

4.When will the loss and damage fund start spending?

Before rich nations agreed to a loss and damage fund at the end of 2022, they argued that it would take years and years to set up – too long to be useful.

After governments agreed on most of the details in 2023, 2024 may be the year they are proved wrong.

Regional groups are appointing their board members to the fund now.

Then the board needs to meet, agree policies, receive the money it’s been promised and start dishing it out.

What’s for sure is that there will be loss this year and there will be damage – droughts, heatwaves, storms and more. So the victims can’t wait.

5.Will countries firm up adaptation targets?

After two years of talks, at Cop28 this year governments agreed to draw up targets on adapting to climate change in areas like healthcare, food security and protecting nature.

They will now spend two years discussing whether there should be numbers attached to those targets and what those numbers should be.

Developing countries want the numbers – like a target to reduce adverse climate impacts on agricultural production by 50% by 2030.

But developed nations argue numbers can’t show how well you’ve adapted to climate change.

They will hash out this debate at Bonn in June and at Cop29 in Baku in November.

Seaweed farmers in Tanzania are having to move into deeper waters as seaweed-killing bacteria thrives in warming seas (Photo: Natalija Gormalova / Climate Visuals Countdown)

6.Will governments get rid of fossil fuel subsidies?

Since 2009, governments have kept promising to get rid of subsidies for fossil fuels – but not really doing so.

At Cop28, a dozen nations including France and Canada joined a coalition to try and finally turn this promise into action.

They committed to drawing up an inventory of their fossil fuel subsidies by Cop29 in November.

Inventories can lead to action. When a Dutch inventory revealed they were spending $40bn a year subsidising fossil fuels, protesters braved water cannons to block off the country’s parliament, rocketing the issue up the agenda. Will the same happen elsewhere?

7.Will coal-to-clean deals keep disappointing?

Just energy transition partnerships (Jetp) faced a brutal reality check in 2023, as investment blueprints were finally unveiled.

Rich countries are offering most of their money as loans not grants. Ambitious plans to switch off coal plants early in South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam are now much more uncertain as a result.

As the money starts flowing in 2024, the implementation of the first few projects should give a flavour of how effective and just the transition will be.

The energy transition deal aims to wean Indonesia off coal, which now takes up nearly half of the country’s electricity mix. Photo: Kemal Jufri / Greenpeace

8.Will new treaty target plastic production?

Government negotiators are currently debating a draft of a new plastics treaty, which they hope to finalise by the end of 2024 – after meetings in Ottawa in April and Busan at the end of November.

One option being fiercely debated is whether to set limits on the amount of plastic each country can produce.

While the majority of European and African countries want limits, the US and Saudi Arabia are resistant.

Plastics are made from oil and gas. With electricity systems and vehicles transitioning to renewable electricity, oil and gas companies see plastics as a lifeline which this treaty could take away.

9.How will companies prepare for the EU’s carbon border tax?

Many developing countries have long seen the European Union’s carbon border tax and elements of the USA’s Inflation Reduction Act as unfair protectionist trade measures, dressed up in concern for the environment.

These complaints were high-profile at Cop28 – with China and others trying to get them put on the official agenda. The United Nation’s trade chief – Costa Rica’s Rebecca Grynspan – recently echoed these concerns and they’re likely to keep rising up the agenda in 2024.

The EU’s carbon border tax incentivises companies making certain polluting products outside of the EU to clean up their manufacturing – or at least to say they’re cleaning up. As the 2026 start date for the tax nears, we expect more stories about companies greenwashing to lessen their tax burden and about the impact of the tax on ordinary people in developing countries, aluminium workers in Mozambique for instance.

Bratsk aluminium smelting facility in Russia will be affected by the EU’s border tax (Photo credit: UC Rusal/WikiCommons)

10.Will carbon markets gain integrity?

Carbon markets – and the voluntary one, in particular – are facing a credibility crisis. Scandal after scandal has put the spotlight on the wildly exaggerated claims and environmental and social issues of many projects. Demand has slowed down as a result.

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market – a new regulator-like body – is trying to steer buyers away from dodgy offsets and onto quality ones. It is expected to apply its quality label on the first batch of credits at the start of the new year.

After talks collapsed at Cop28 earlier this month, Article 6 negotiations will resume in Bonn in June. The US and EU are at loggerheads. Another bitter battle seems likely.

The post Ten climate questions for 2024 appeared first on Climate Home News.

Former leftist president, Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, leads the polls against the current president Jair Bolsonaro, who is seeking reelection. More than 156 million people are registered to vote on 2 October for the first electoral round.

Despite Bolsonaro’s destructive policies towards the Amazon rainforest, both he and Lula have incorporated proposals to halt deforestation, in an effort to attract concerned voters.

More than in previous years, the climate crisis has become a significant voter priority for this election, analysts told Climate Home News.

The South American country of 212 million people is the world’s sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter and home to most of the Amazon rainforest, which has experienced rising deforestation and extreme wildfires in the last four years.

Colombia’s new president calls for debt swap to protect the Amazon

In the case of all major candidates, avoiding climate action in their plans would be a “political suicide”, given the global and national context, said Thales Castro, head of the Political Science Program at the Catholic University of Pernambuco (Unicap).

Bolsonaro’s government plan proposes the use of green bonds and carbon credits to finance emissions reductions, as well as hiring 6,000 firefighters to control extreme wildfires.

The document says he’ll seek to accelerate “actions to reduce” emissions, and adds that Brazil can be a “provider of climate solutions and establishing itself as a world leader in a global green supply chain”.

But Bolsonaro’s deforestation record and his support for large agribusiness show that these proposals cannot be taken seriously, said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the climate NGO coalition Observatório do Clima.

Under his term, deforestation in the Amazon rose to a 12-year high. After this data was revealed by Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, he denied it and sacked the head of the space agency.

Lula has a more positive conservation record as president 2003-2011, but if elected will face the challenge of undoing some of Bolsonaro’s legislation, said Cynthia Suassuna, climate policy researcher at Unicap. For example, a “land-grab” bill that legitimises squatters who raze Amazon rainforest for cattle ranches or soy plantations, which has passed the lower house of parliament and is on the government priority list for a Senate vote before the election.

The former president’s platform includes strengthening environmental institutions weakened by Bolsonaro’s presidency, providing “green” farm loans and meeting Brazil’s Paris Agreement goals.

On fossil fuels, Lula – like Bolsonaro – supports increasing production. His plan calls for development of the “pre-salt”, an abundant reserve of high quality petroleum found near Brazil’s shores.

“It’s necessary to expand the production capacity of (petroleum) derivatives in Brazil, taking advantage of the great wealth of the pre-salt, with prices that take into account the production costs in Brazil,” Lula’s plan reads.

Thanks to its abundant hydropower capacity, Brazil has a relatively clean electricity, with fossil fuels representing only 12% of the generation mix. However, Brazil is a major oil exporter and Latin America’s top producer.

The post Brazil election: Lula challenges Bolsonaro’s deforestation record, backs oil development appeared first on Climate Home News.

Officials audit ballot boxes in Afghanistan’s 2014 election (Flickr/ UNAMA)

By Alex Pashley

The election cycle never ends.

Ahead of a decisive climate conference in seven weeks’ time, these are the countries set to elect governments and legislatures. Unpicking long-crafted stances might be dangerous, but not impossible.

What bearing could the shuffling of top national posts have  on UN climate talks?

1. Canada – 19 October

Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada is a major emitter with tar sands making up a chunk (Flickr/ Kris Krug)

Liberal party challenger Justin Trudeau is neck and neck with incumbent prime minister Steven Harper in the polls. Environmentalists are watching the race eagerly, hoping the result might herald some pro-climate policies, including to slash emissions from the country’s dirty tar sands.

Two-term Conservative leader Harper has blocked green reforms, says Ontario premier Kathleen Wynee, with her province leading the charge to defy Ottawa.

Trudeau has promised to link up all provinces and territories with carbon taxes, while his party platform includes support for a fossil fuel subsidy phase-out and is open to joining a North American clean energy agreement with Mexico and the US.

2. Poland – 25 October

Duda won an election in May, heralding a return to power for Poland’s right (tk) (Pic: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość/Flickr)

Favourites the Law and Justice (PiS) party have vowed to shore up Poland’s ageing coal industry and defy EU climate policies. President Andrzej Duda, who was elected in May, campaigned on a similar platform to protect those who haven’t enjoyed the spoils of years of strong growth.

Government figures have hit back, saying Poland would end up marginalised in Europe. Some analysts dismiss PiS pro-coal rhetoric as empty bluster, with key EU decisions long decided. Duda has already tracked back since winning power, passing clean air regulations for local authorities.

But how to salvage the country’s tottering mining companies is “the hot potato no one wants to touch,” says Julia Michalak at think tank Demos Europa.

3. Argentina – 25 October

Argentine president Christina Kirchner in 2014 (Flickr/ Argentine Culture Ministry)

The end of the kirchnerismo project is nigh as President Cristina Kirchner’s protégé Daniel Scioli takes on Mauricio Macri to govern South America’s third-largest economy.

Argentina has pledged to cut emissions at least 15% by 2030, though NGOs said the target’s reliance on existing policies was deceiving.

Scioli has labelled climate change the South American country’s “main enemy”, but candidates are said to have touched little on the subject on the campaign trail.

Argentina is a G20 member and promised to phase out fossil fuel subsidies in the medium term. A November conference may demand more strenuous actions. A second round is slated for 22 November, should no clear winner emerge.

4. Turkey – 1 November 

Yenikoy Open Pit Coal Mine, Milas (credit: wikimedia commons)

Turkey’s general election will go ahead in a fraught climate, after a deadly bomb attack killed 128 people in capital Ankara last Saturday.

Fiercely ambivalent on climate policy, president Recep Erdogan hopes to broaden support for his AK party after an inconclusive result in June. Don’t expect a change of tack in Paris.

The country is backing fossil fuel development, with a series of coal-fired power plants in the pipeline. Emissions have rocketed 110% between 1990 and 2013, and its pledge to the UN foresees that trend accelerating.

It hosting of the next G20  meeting in November will put the government under a lens, but isn’t expected to reverse dirty policy.

5. Myanmar – 8 November

Mystic temples of Bagan, just before sunrise. Bagan, Myanmar (Flickr/ KX Studio)

Could Myanmar’s first relatively free and fair election in 50 years be a new spring for the country’s international engagement? Analysts say Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy could well win a majority, shaking up the Asian country’s politics after military rule ended in 2011.

Myanmar is a blank slate for energy, with the government locked in debate over which direction to take. There is hope for solar, but an expansion of coal-fired power plants is assured to widen electricity access to the two out of three Burmese that lack it. The country lags as one of the worst for deforestation, according to the UN. What would effect would an NLD victory have on a cleaner energy future?

6. Marshall Islands – 16 November 

Laura beach in the Marshall Islands (Pic: Stefan Lins/Flickr)

The low-lying country of 24 atolls in the Pacific ocean has an outsized voice in UN talks given its vulnerability to sea-level rise and storms.

Foreign minister Tony de Brum has used that as his bully pulpit to campaign for more robust climate action. The island state came up with a bullish plan to cut emissions and boost renewables in July.

The senator has labelled climate change migration “genocide” and lambasted the UN’s shipping body chief over slow progress to curb maritime emissions. But like any politician, he must win re-election to the Nitijela parliament in capital Majuro. Polling data is not readily available.

Holding major emitters to account has bipartisan support in the Marshall Islands and the new government wont take office until next year after the Paris summit. But small islands states would lose a giant if de Brum did not win back his seat.

The post 6 elections to watch before Paris climate summit appeared first on Climate Home News.