On Sunday President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed ministers from his ANC party and the pro-business opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) to serve in his “government of national unity”.

In one of the most significant changes, Ramaphosa took away pro-coal minister Gwede Mantashe’s control of the energy sector. Hilton Trollip, a Cape Town University energy researcher, told Climate Home that Mantashe had previously “paralysed” the government’s renewables programme.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has now been split in two. Mantashe is only keeping control of mining and hydrocarbons, while the ANC’s Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, previously the electricity minister, will now be in charge of setting energy policy with a wider mandate. 

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Trollip said it was unclear if Ramokgopa would boost renewables as he has not held much power until now. But there is now a better chance that Mantashe’s highly contentious Integrated Resource Plan – which envisages a slowdown in renewable energy investments and a switch to gas-fired power – will be revised, he added.

DA’s Dion George is the new environment minister replacing Barbara Creecy, who has been moved to transport.

Creecy played an active role in several COP climate talks, most importantly successfully proposing a global goal on adaptation at COP26 in 2021. 

JETP talks

Owing to its heavy reliance on coal for electricity, the country is Africa’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. 

That made it a prime candidate for a world-first funding agreement, backed by wealthy nations, aimed at ramping up investments in clean energy while also protecting those reliant on the fossil fuel sector.

But two and a half years after it was announced, the now $9.3 billion “Just Energy Transition Partnership” (JETP) has made little tangible progress on the ground. 

Meanwhile, as the country grapples with rolling blackouts, state-owned utility Eskom has announced plans to delay the decommissioning of at least three of its coal-fired power plants by several years  – raising the risk that funding partners will walk back on their offers.

A general view of Kendal Power Station, a coal-fired station of South African utility Eskom, in the Mpumalanga province. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

Kevin Mileham, the DA’s shadow minister of mineral resources and energy, told Climate Home that South Africa’s JETP “will need to be accelerated” as the country is currently not on track to meet global climate goals.

The party wants to see “a rapid roll out” of the programme which will require improved dialogue with the wealthy European and North American countries funding part of it, he added.

It also wants to advance the implementation of a climate change adaptation strategy and believes South Africa needs to do a better job at tracking and reporting its efforts to reduce carbon emissions, Mileham said.

Much of the progress will hinge on the government’s ability to form a united front on foreign policy and forge an effective relationship with the international funding partners.

The ANC and DA have regularly clashed on international affairs, such as the country’s support to Palestine.

They will need to “reconcile their differences [on foreign policy] and come to a shared understanding on international multilateral processes,” says Happy Khambule, energy and environment policy director at Business Unity South Africa, a business lobby group.

Tensions over private sector role

He added that private companies, which will have a significant role in the transition, want to see policy certainty enhanced in the months ahead.

The group is awaiting the finalisation of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill, which promises to open up the electricity market and put an end to Eskom’s longstanding monopoly, and the Integrated Resource Plan.

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Meanwhile, the DA’s preference for greater private sector involvement in the energy transition could create fresh tensions with key stakeholders. Left-wing adversaries often deridingly label the DA a “neoliberal” party.

The country’s largest trade union group COSATU wants the newly separated energy department to “stop the privatisation of electricity and energy”, and instead promote state and social ownership models.

“We don’t expect major shifts with regards to the just transition, but rather a more focused approach on its implementation, in particular to make sure workers and communities and value chains are not left behind,” a spokesperson for the organisation told Climate Home.

The just transition should be overseen by multiple government departments given “the triple crisis” of unemployment, climate change and energy shortages, they added, suggesting that, for example, the finance ministry should raise spending on climate-focused public employment schemes.

(Reporting by Nick Hedley, editing by Joe Lo and Matteo Civillini)

The post New South African government fuels optimism for faster energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.

President Cyril Ramaphosa described the $8.5 billion “Just Energy Transition Partnership” (JETP) as a “watershed moment” – and then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called it a “game-changing partnership”.

But, as South Africa prepares to head to the polls next Wednesday in an election that could force Ramaphosa’s ruling party to share power for the first time since apartheid ended, there is still little to show for the energy transition deal on the ground.

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Crispian Olver, executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission which is advising the government on the JETP, told Climate Home: “This is a bit like trying to turn a big container-ship – it’s slow to shift onto a new path, but once it’s on that new course, things will start to move faster.”  

As of last November, just $308 million of grant-funded projects under the JETP had reached the implementation phase, government data shows. Of this, just $30m was categorised as spending on the just transition in the coal-dependent Mpumalanga province.

The government has not published equivalent information on loans – which make up 97% of the donor-backed support. But those following the JETP say progress has been slow partly because South Africa’s state-owned electricity generator Eskom is reluctant to take on more debt.

In addition, South Africa’s energy ministry and the wealthy governments that are providing funding disagree on the role of gas in the country’s energy transition. The donors backing the JETP are the US, Canada, Britain, Switzerland, the European Union, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Denmark and Spain.

Coal plant closures have been delayed by South Africa’s lack of reliable electricity, which has led to rolling power black-outs known as “load-shedding”.

While problems affecting the coal sector are a key cause of unreliable electricity supplies, Eskom has said it will delay the closure of three coal-fired power plants in response to the crisis. 

South Africa’s best wind and solar resources, in the south and west, meanwhile remain under-utilised because the national power grid is already congested in those areas.

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To transport the clean power, Eskom is trying to build transmission cables but progress has been slow as the utility is deeply in debt and reluctant to take on new loans through the JETP – even if those loans are offered on cheap terms.

An Eskom spokesperson said that “off-balance sheet options” – like allowing the private sector to build cables and substations – are being considered, but the details are still to be finalised. 

Electricity cables at South Africa’s Lethaba power station in 2007 (Photos: World Bank)

Yet not all government departments want a rapid transition to renewables. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), led by pro-coal minister Gwede Mantashe, recently published an energy planning document that envisages a sharp slowdown in the roll-out of solar and wind power and instead more of a shift from coal to gas power plants.   

This has complicated things for the international partner group behind the JETP. Two people with knowledge of the negotiations told Climate Home that South Africa’s apparent reticence to switch to renewables is slowing the pace of funding flows under the deal. 

On the other hand, South Africa’s parliament recently approved a Climate Change Bill and a Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill, which seeks to create a competitive power market and end Eskom’s century-long, coal-dominated monopoly. The legislation will render the DMRE’s controversial gas-reliant energy plans less relevant, as it paves the way for more electricity to be produced by private companies.

Energy minister Gwede Mantashe (left) speaks to President Cyril Ramaphosa (right) in 2018 (Photos: South African government)

But that has done little to appease anxious workers and residents in the heart of the country’s coal belt. In particular, the town of Komati offers a warning of the electoral damage that can occur if coal-plant repurposing projects don’t go smoothly. 

Eskom’s coal-fired power station in Komati was retired from service in October 2022 after reaching its end-of-life date. It is now being converted into a solar, wind and food farm, a solar microgrid assembly factory and training facility.

Parts of it are now starting to open but for many local people, it is too little too late. “The community is currently facing a pandemic of unemployment and poverty,” said community leader Carlos Vilankulu, who is also a repurposing project liaison officer. 

Eskom says none of its workers lost their jobs when the last coal units were taken offline – many were transferred to other power stations. But local guesthouses and other small businesses in the community say they are struggling as a result of the closure. 

A man selling second-hand tyres waits for customers in Komati village, May 9, 2024 (Photo: REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko)

“Everything has come to a standstill. Many people are unemployed,” said Alta de Bruin, a guest-house owner based in Komati village. While the repurposing project has generally been well received, it “could have started a long time ago”, de Bruin told Climate Home.

The decision to close down Komati was made long before South Africa agreed to its climate finance package at COP26, but the local transformation project is intended to serve as a blueprint for other just transition initiatives in the country.  

It has been a cautionary tale, according to Olver. Community consultations on the way forward only took place years after the decision was made to shut Komati – meaning local residents and businesses were left in a state of limbo. “The next [coal power] stations will do it better,“ he said.

Besides South Africa, JETPs have also been signed with Indonesia, Vietnam and Senegal. Leo Roberts, an analyst with climate change think-tank E3G, said South Africa’s delays in closing down its coal plants are concerning.

Indonesia has also postponed coal plant closures after expressing disappointment with rich countries’ support, while Vietnam’s partnership has ground to a halt amid political turmoil.

“We mustn’t lose sight of what the JETPs need to deliver,” Roberts said. “This is ultimately about reducing emissions to avoid catastrophic climate change, dealing with the huge health pollution challenges coal causes, and supporting countries to deliver self-defined low-carbon development pathways.”

(Reporting by Nick Hedley; editing by Joe Lo and Megan Rowling)

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The ministry, led by pro-coal minister Gwede Mantatashe, released its draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) on Thursday.

Energy analysts complained that it fails to reveal the figures on which its controversial assumptions are based and pointed out that it contrasts sharply with South Africa’s already approved just energy transition strategy.  

Under the new IRP’s preferred scenario, the government will add 6 gigawatts (GW) of new gas by 2030 but just 4.5 GW of new wind and solar between 2024 and 2030.  

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Together with private sector-led projects, this would lift the share of renewables in the power mix to 22% by the end of the decade. 

That’s according to calculations by Tobias Bischof-Niemz, a former policy adviser at the state-owned energy research unit CSIR.

That is a step back from the 2019 iteration of the IRP, which saw renewables reaching at least 33% of the mix by 2030.  

Moreover, in April local universities, research entities, business groups and the government’s official climate advisers found that South Africa needs to add 50-60GW of solar and wind this decade to end rolling blackouts and meet its climate commitments. Doing so would push the share of renewables above 40%. 

Happy Khambule, environment and energy manager at Business Unity South Africa and former member of the government’s climate advisory body, told Climate Home that “the IRP deviates from widely accepted models and shows a lack of ambition”.

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South Africa is Africa’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter thanks to its heavy reliance on coal, which supplies more than four-fifths of the nation’s electricity. 

Yet regular power cuts have hobbled the economy since 2007 due to ongoing breakdowns across the country’s fleet of ageing coal plants.  

At the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow in 2021, a group of wealthy nations announced they would help fund South African investments in renewable energy, transmission infrastructure, green hydrogen, and electric vehicle manufacturing. 

The South African government has since approved a just energy transition investment plan, which has $11.9 billion in financial commitments so far and which largely follows the climate commission’s recommendations. 

But the new IRP, which says rolling blackouts will likely continue until at least 2028, shows that Mantashe’s department has different ideas. 

Mantashe is a former coal miner who rose to power through the trade union movement. He has long called for new public investments in coal, gas and nuclear power, arguing that these technologies which can provide electricity when called upon are necessary for both energy security and economic development. 

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In 2022, Mantashe clashed publicly with the then head of the state-owned power company Eskom Andre De Ruyter, who favoured a more ambitious renewable energy programme.

Mantashe signed off on the draft IRP, a 48-page document which looks at a number of possible pathways to 2030 and then to 2050. 

One pathway relies on delaying the closure of five coal plants by a decade and focusing on improving their performance, while another envisages the addition of up to 6GW of so-called “cleaner coal” technologies.

The IRP also considers investment in nuclear energy as well as a renewables-only pathway – although it claims that this option is not feasible. 

“It is evident that energy pathways based on renewable and clean energy technologies only deliver the desired outcome insofar as decarbonising the power system,” the IRP reads. “However, these pathways do not provide security of supply while carrying the highest cost to implement.” 

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But Emily Tyler, the climate policy lead at Meridian Economics Emily Tyler dispute this conclusion. She told Climate Home: “All credible South African power system modelling exercises show substantial renewable energy capacity in the least-cost case…and little utilised gas, no nuclear, and no new coal”.

While it does not make any definitive conclusions, the IRP suggests that the best option would be to reduce the renewables programme and build up a gas industry.

According to this pathway, South Africa should procure 7 GW of gas capacity by 2030 and another 33.4 GW over the following two decades, increasingly using gas drilled locally.

Tyler said that, if this plan goes ahead, private industry would build its own cheap renewable energy while “the poor will be left with very expensive grid electricity as the only option”.

Tyler adds that the lack of technical detail in the draft IRP makes it “impossible to assess”.

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Despite deadly air pollution in coal regions like Mpumalanga, the plan suggests the need to find a way around compliance with South Africa’s air quality standards to ensure coal plants can legally remain online. 

Eskom is technically in breach of the nation’s minimum emission standards, but has been granted exemptions until March 2025. If the rules are implemented from that date, Eskom would have to remove up to 30GW of coal capacity from the mix. 

“A balance will have to be found between energy security, the adverse health impacts of poor air quality, and the economic cost associated with these plants shutting down,” the IRP states. 

The draft plan is out for public comment. Once approved, it will allow policymakers to procure new generating capacity in line with its recommendations. 

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