Speaking on Monday at an old London coal power plant-turned-shopping centre, IEA head Fatih Birol said he would be “very happy” to see new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) that “include no new unabated coal and also early retirements of existing coal”.

In 2021, the Glasgow Climate Pact, agreed at the COP26 UN climate summit, called on countries for the first time to accelerate efforts “towards the phase-down of unabated coal power”. “Unabated” means power produced using coal without any technology to capture, store or use the planet-heating carbon dioxide emitted during the process.

Birol, a Turkish energy analyst, said that stopping coal-plant construction was “as our North American colleagues would say, a no-brainer”. Yet, he added, while “the appetite to build new coal plants is in a dying process, some countries still do it”. He singled out China’s plans to build 50 gigawatts (GW) of new coal plants.

Shutting down existing coal plants, particularly young ones in Asia, is more difficult because the companies that have built and operate them would lose money, Birol noted. There is almost $1 trillion of capital to be recovered from existing coal plants, “so who is going to pay for this?” he asked, calling it “a key issue”.

Birol praised the Just Energy Transition Partnerships that have been set up between wealthy countries and several coal-reliant emerging economies like South Africa and Indonesia to help address the problem. He added that “there are some countries in Asia who can, in my view, afford to retire their coal plants earlier”, without mentioning which.

Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof announced at the event organised by the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which includes 60 countries, that Malaysia aims to reduce its coal-fired power plants by half by 2035 and retire all of them by 2044. It will also tackle social and economic challenges through reskilling programmes for workers and promoting renewable energy adoption, he added.

Speaking later at London’s defunct Battersea power station, Indonesia’s deputy minister for maritime affairs and investment, Rachmat Kaimuddin, explained some of the challenges his country faces in phasing out coal.

Kaimuddin (right) speaks alongside Germany’s climate envoy Jennifer Morgan (centre) in London on June 24, 2024. (Photo: Powering Past Coal Alliance)

After China and India, Indonesia has the world’s biggest pipeline of new coal power plants under construction. Kaimuddin said the state energy company would not build any more but added that cancelling existing contracts is “very, very difficult” unless the company constructing the plant wants to pull out – which none have yet.

In addition, shutting down existing power power plants is expensive, he said, because many coal power plants have “take or pay” contracts signed in the 1990s under which the government pays them whether their electricity is required or not.

Another concern is that the Southeast Asian nation does not want to lose its energy security in the switch to renewables, Kaimuddin noted. Indonesia currently mines domestically most of the coal it uses. “We’re trying to partner with other people to try to build [a] renewable supply chain in the country,” he said.

Millions of people in Indonesia work in the coal industry, he added, so a shift towards clean energy will need to include new jobs for them. “It doesn’t have to be green jobs – it has to be jobs, right?” he said.

Five things we learned from the UN’s climate mega-poll

Singapore’s climate ambassador Ravi Menon told the same event that the economies of China, India and Indonesia are growing and so are their energy needs, meaning that renewables have to be rolled out rapidly to meet demand.

Energy storage is also required to smooth intermittent supply from solar and wind, while electricity transmission infrastructure, including power lines, is needed to transport power from solar and wind farms to cities that account for a large share of consumption.

Both Kaimuddin and Menon said carbon credits should be used to offset losses for the owners of coal plants that are shut down early. “Retiring [plants] definitely will destroy financial value and… and we also need a better way to compensate them,” said Kaimuddin.

The event’s focus on coal raised concerns among some campaigners. Avantika Goswami, climate lead at the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment, told Climate Home that “singling out coal” in the NDCs, rather than including fossil fuels more broadly, “equates to giving a free pass to oil and gas-dependent countries, many of whom are wealthy”.

It could penalise many developing countries, where coal is a cheap source of fuel and energy needs are still growing, she warned.

“A global climate policy that allows unfettered use of oil and gas – which together account for 55% of fossil fuel emissions – is incomplete and inequitable,” she added.

Romain Ioualalen, global policy lead at advocacy group Oil Change International, said the IEA’s head should know that “the time to focus only on coal as a climate culprit is over”. He pointed to a subsequent agreement at COP28 last year where governments agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels in their energy systems, without setting a deadline.

“We need a full, fast, fair, funded phase-out of all fossil fuels. Setting such a low bar for ambition is out of touch and inequitable, keeping the door wide open for major oil and gas producers,” Ioualalen added in a statement.

He called on rich countries that are “most responsible” for the climate crisis to foot the bill for a just transition. “We know they have more than enough money. It’s just going to the wrong things like fossil fuel handouts,” he said.

(Reporting by Joe Lo; editing by Megan Rowling)

This story was updated after publication to include comments from Avantika Goswami at the CSE and Romain Ioualalen at Oil Change International,.

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In the closing session of the two-week talks on Thursday evening, many countries expressed their disappointment and frustration at the lack of any outcome on the Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme (MWP), noting the urgency of stepping up efforts to curb greenhouse gas pollution this decade.

The co-chairs of the talks said those discussions had not reached any conclusion and would need to resume at the annual climate summit in Azerbaijan in November, unleashing a stream of disgruntled interventions from both developed and developing countries.

Samoa’s lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, speaking on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), emphasised that “we really can’t afford these failures”. “We have failed to show the world that we are responding with the purpose and urgency required to limit warming to 1.5 degrees,” she said.

Anne Rasmussen of Samoa, speaking on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Photo: IISD/ENB – Kiara Worth

Governments, from Latin America to Africa and Europe, lamented the lack of progress on the MWP because of its central role in keeping warming to the 1.5C temperature ceiling enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

Current policies to cut emissions are forecast to lead to warming of 2.7C, even as the world is already struggling with worsening floods, droughts, heatwaves and rising sea levels at global average temperatures around 1.3C higher than pre-industrial times.

Mitigation a taboo topic?

Despite the clear need to act fast, a deep sense of mistrust seeped into talks on the MWP in Bonn, with negotiators disagreeing fundamentally over its direction, according to sources in the room.

Developed countries and some developing ones said that the Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries (LMDCs), led primarily by Saudi Arabia and China, as well as some members of the African Group, had refused to engage constructively in the discussions.

“The reason is that they fear this would put pressure on them to keep moving away from fossil fuels,” an EU delegate told Climate Home.

Bonn bulletin: Fossil fuel transition left homeless

Bolivia’s Diego Pacheco, speaking on behalf of the LMDCs, rejected that view in the final plenary session, while describing the atmosphere in the MWP talks as “strange and shocking”. He also accused developed countries of trying to bury data showing their emissions will rise rather than fall over the course of this decade.

The EU and Switzerland said it was incomprehensible that a body charged with cutting greenhouse gas emissions had not even been allowed to discuss them.

“Mitigation must not be taboo as a topic,” said Switzerland’s negotiator, adding that otherwise the outcome and credibility of the COP29 summit would be at risk.

Rows over process

Before MWP negotiations broke down in Bonn, its co-facilitators – Kay Harrison of New Zealand and Carlos Fuller of Belize – had made a last-ditch attempt to rescue some semblance of progress.

They produced draft conclusions calling for new inputs ahead of COP29 and an informal note summarising the diverging views aired during the fraught exchanges. For many delegates, the adoption of those documents would have provided a springboard for more meaningful discussions in Baku.

But the LMDC and Arab groups refused to consider this, arguing that the co-facilitators had no mandate to produce them and calling their legitimacy into question – a claim rebutted by the UN climate secretariat, according to observers. Frantic efforts to find common ground ultimately came to nothing.

A session of the Mitigation Work Programme in Bonn. Photo: IISD/ENB – Kiara Worth

Fernanda de Carvalho, climate and energy policy head for green group WWF, said the MWP discussions must advance if the world is to collectively reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 from 2019 levels, as scientists say is needed.

The MWP should be focused on supporting countries to deliver stronger national climate action plans (NDCs) – due by early next year – that set targets through to 2035, she said.

“Instead, we saw [government] Parties diverging way more than converging on hard discussions that never made it beyond process,” she added.

‘Collective amnesia’

Some developing countries, including the Africa Group, pushed back against what they saw as efforts by rich nations to force them to make bigger cuts in emissions while ducking their own responsibilities to move first and provide more finance to help poorer countries adopt clean energy.

Brazil – which will host the COP30 summit in 2025 – said the MWP was the main channel for the talks to be able to find solutions to put into practice the agreement struck at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair way.

But to enable that, “we have to create a safe environment of trust that will leverage it as a cooperative laboratory”, he said, instead of the “courthouse” it has become “where we accuse and judge each other”.

Observers in Bonn pointed to the absence of discussions on implementing the COP28 deal on fossil fuels, which was hailed last December as “historic”.

“It seems like we have collective amnesia,” veteran watcher Alden Meyer, a senior associate at think-tank E3G, told journalists. “We’ve forgotten that we made that agreement. It’s taboo to talk about it in these halls.”

‘Detour on the road to Baku’

After the exchange of views, UN Climate Change executive secretary Simon Stiell noted that the Bonn talks had taken “modest steps forward” on issues like the global goal on adaptation, increased transparency of climate action and fixing the rules for a new global carbon market.

“But we took a detour on the road to Baku. Too many issues were left unresolved. Too many items are still on the table,” he added.

The closing plenary of the Bonn Climate Change Conference. Photo: Lucia Vasquez / UNFCCC

Another key area where the talks failed to make much progress was on producing clear options for ministers to negotiate a new post-2025 climate finance goal, as developed countries refused to discuss dollar amounts as demanded by the Africa and Arab groups, among others.

Bonn talks on climate finance goal end in stalemate on numbers

Developing nations also complained about this in the final session, while others expressed their concern that a separate track of the negotiations on scientific research had failed to address the topic in a rigorous enough manner.

In his closing speech, Stiell reminded countries that “we must uphold the science”, and urged them to accelerate their efforts to find common ground on key issues well ahead of COP29.

The next opportunities to move forward on the new finance goal – expected as the main outcome from the Baku summit – will be a “retreat” of heads of delegations in July followed by a technical meeting in October, including a high-level ministerial dialogue on the issue.

But several observers told Climate Home that highly contentious issues – such as the size of the funding pot and the list of donors – are beyond the remit of negotiators and are unlikely to be resolved until the political heavyweights, including ministers, take them up in Azerbaijan in November.

Rising costs of climate crisis

“Business-as-usual is a recipe for failure, on climate finance, and on many other fronts, in humanity’s climate fight,” Stiell said. “We can’t keep pushing this year’s issues off into the next year. The costs of the climate crisis – for every nation’s people and economy – are only getting worse.”

Mohamed Adow, director of Kenya-based energy and climate think-tank Power Shift Africa, warned that “multiple factors are setting us up for a terrible shock at COP29″, saying this “ticking disaster threatens to undermine” the NDCs and in turn the 1.5C warming limit.

North Africa’s disappearing nomads: Why my community needs climate finance

In comments posted on X, formerly Twitter, Adow called for justice for those dying from the impacts of climate change such as extreme heat in India and Sudan in recent days, arguing that climate finance remains “a vital part in securing a safe and secure future for us all”.

But, he said, Bonn did not deliver a beacon of hope for vulnerable people. “Developing countries are expected to slay the climate dragon with invisible swords, having gotten zero assurances on the long-term finance they need,” he added.

(Reporting by Megan Rowling and Matteo Civillini, editing by Joe Lo)

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In the Danish port city, as dozens of ministers fired the starting gun on the annual climate diplomacy race, the focus was on putting December’s landmark Cop28 decision into practice. In Dubai, governments agreed for the first time to start shifting away from fossil fuels. But officials are now contemplating how to make that work in the real world – and, crucially, who will pay for it.

Meanwhile, in oil and gas-rich Texas, top fossil fuel executives took to the stage at the energy industry conference CERAWeek, where they cast doubt on the transition away from fossil fuels agreed at Cop28, with Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser calling it a “fantasy”.

In the courts, Republican-led US states sued the Biden administration over its recent decision to pause new approvals for fossil gas exports.

Energy transition crossroads

For climate policy observers, these opposing forces are not entirely surprising.

Romain Ioualalen, global policy manager at campaign group Oil Change International, said the Cop28 decision puts the fossil fuel industry at a crossroads: either it pours more investment into renewable energy, or it doubles down on oil, gas and coal in a bid to undermine the green shift as much as possible.

“It seems to have chosen the latter – and unless governments immediately intervene to end fossil fuel expansion, people and planet will pay the price,” he added.

Pushing for faster adoption of clean energy certainly appears to be the intention on the international climate policy stage, where the political machinery is clanking back into gear after what Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen dubbed “historic progress” in Dubai.

“Important decisions have been made on the action,” he told the start of the Danish summit. “Now, how do we pay for it?”

Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, delivers remarks at the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, flanked by Cop29 incoming president Mukhtar Babayev. REUTERS/Ali Withers

The question of finding money for the energy transition in developing countries will be front and centre this year as countries need to agree on a “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG) for climate finance at Cop29 in November, which will kick in from next year.

The battle lines are already drawn: developing nations want their richer counterparts to stump up the highest amount of cash with the fewest strings attached. Developed countries want other governments, including China and fossil fuel-rich Gulf nations, to join the list of donors.

The size of the money pot – and the conditions to tap into it – will be particularly important for emerging economies. They want help to finance the costly emission-slashing measures they are being asked to take.

For Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s incoming Cop29 president, the negotiations on the new finance goal represent an opportunity to rebuild trust. Unlocking more funds, he told fellow ministers in Denmark, “will empower all parties to raise the ambition” of their upcoming climate plans.

Cop Troika urges “high-ambition” NDCs

The updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that all countries have been asked to submit by early 2025 was the other main talking point in Denmark on Thursday and Friday.

The so-called ‘Troika’ of the hosts of Cop28 (UAE), Cop29 (Azerbaijan) and Cop30 (Brazil) has tasked itself with building momentum and prompting countries to get moving.

On the eve of the Danish summit, the Cop presidencies sent a letter to all parties calling for “early submissions of high ambition NDCs that decisively take forward the UAE Consensus [the agreement struck in Dubai]”.

UN’s climate body faces “severe financial challenges” which put work at risk

The Troika “will aim to raise and reframe ambition for the development process” of the national climate action blueprints, pushing for more support, resources and finance, it added.

But the missive did not go down well with developed countries – and, above all, with the United States.

Its deputy special envoy for climate Sue Biniaz said she was “quite surprised” at the Troika’s suggestion that this year’s “focus on NDCs should be all about support” and that the Cop hosts defined a “high ambition NDC” for developed countries as one that includes finance for developing countries. Using that kind of wording could be “highly prejudicial” to climate finance negotiations, she warned.

Do as I say, not as I do

In the letter, the Cop host governments also pledged to demonstrate their own commitment by submitting NDCs that are aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

That announcement raised some eyebrows. The UAE and Brazil have some of the world’s biggest plans to expand fossil fuel production between now and 2050, while Azerbaijan’s economy primarily relies on fossil fuel extraction and it is poised to hike gas exports.

African dismay at decision to host loss and damage advice hub in Geneva

Those intentions clash with what the International Energy Agency (IEA) says is required to remain on a 1.5C trajectory: fossil fuel demand needs to fall 80% by 2050, meaning no new upstream oil and gas projects are needed, as of now.

Harjeet Singh of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said that discrepancy “raises serious questions about the alignment between [the Troika’s] words and their actions”.

“These countries must disentangle themselves from fossil fuel interests and lead climate action by example, pressuring wealthier nations that continue to shirk their historic and moral responsibilities,” he added.

Fossil fuel reality check

The rhetoric coming from the fossil fuel industry assembled at Houston’s CERAWeek suggests strong pressure will be needed.

Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser called for more, not less, investment in oil and gas, as he claimed that the current energy transition strategy is “visibly failing on most fronts”.

President and CEO, Amin Nasser, asserts at #CERAWeek 2024 that energy consumers around the world need lower-carbon energy with minimal disruptions to their daily lives and calls for a new, multi-source, multi-speed, and multi-dimensional road to a realistic transition#aramco pic.twitter.com/OEkQvuK9HD

— aramco (@aramco) March 19, 2024

Meg O’Neill, chief executive of Australian oil and gas firm Woodside Energy, said the shift to clean energy cannot “happen at an unrealistic pace”. The bosses of oil giants Shell, ExxonMobil and Petrobras echoed similar views.

One fossil fuel executive who is equally at home in industry talking shops and climate diplomacy circles is Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber.

On Tuesday, he told attendees at the oil and gas conference in the US that “there is just no avoiding that the energy transition will take time”.

Two days later, over in Denmark, he emphasised that “governments and all relevant parties” have to be honest about what moving away from fossil fuels will involve.

“We can’t misguide or mislead anyone anymore,” he said, sending out a message that could apply on both sides of the Helsingør-Houston divide. “We must confront the facts very early. Those who are in this room. It is our job, our duty to do that.”

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His appeal has gone totally unanswered. Two and a half months later no country has updated its nationally determined contribution (NDC), the Paris Agreement-mandated blueprint to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

The deafening silence comes as the UN restates the urgency of stepping up action. More ambitious targets are needed as current NDCs are not collectively sufficient to limit warming to 1.5C, the Global Stocktake report said last month.

Tom Evans, a policy advisor at E3G, says it was always “quite unlikely” countries would submit updated NDCs before Cop28. “I don’t think there are tonnes of appetite among governments to revise their targets so often,” he told Climate Home News. “It’s challenging politically because these aren’t light decisions, and it’s challenging technically as it takes time with lots of modelling to do them properly.”

Ambition gap

Current NDCs are short of what is needed. If countries meet their 2030 emission targets in full, global heating could only be limited to 2.4-2.6C this century, according to the UN Emissions Gap report. Emissions need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in its latest report.

Global emissions pathways according to the IPCC. Credit:IISD/ENB -IPCC Synthesis Report

NDCs are an integral part of the “ratchet mechanism” built into the agreement: each climate plan should be stronger and more ambitious than the one that is replacing. In 2015 governments agreed to update the documents every five years, but since then many have called for more frequent reviews.

What is the global stocktake of climate action and why does it matter?

Like with Al Jaber’s plea, they have mostly gone unheeded. At Cop26 in Glasgow, governments agreed to “revisit and strengthen” their 2030 emission targets so that they are aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement by the end of 2022.

Only a handful of countries submitted new NDCs within that timeframe and, crucially, none of them produced one that is compatible with keeping global warming below 1.5°C, according to Climate Action Tracker.

Big emitters missing

“There is a bit of a deja vu”, says Mia Moisio, project lead at Climate Action Tracker, referring to Al Jaber’s call. “There is a clear sense of urgency in the scientific community but, unfortunately, that has not trickled down to decision-makers in the way we’d hope to see.”

Most of the world’s biggest polluters have not drafted new climate targets in years. European Union states last updated their NDCs in December 2020, the US, Canada, Japan and China did so in 2021. The UK submitted a new document in 2022, offering more transparency but no stronger targets.

New IEA net zero report leaves big polluters less room to hide

Mexico, one of the latest G20 nations to issue an update, has been accused of breaching the Paris Agreement’s commitment to step up targets over time. Its latest climate plan would lead to higher emission levels than the targets the Central American country had pledged in 2016.

Previously also accused of backsliding on commitments, Brazil announced two weeks ago it would go back to the stronger climate targets it drew up in 2015 while it works on new and improved ones.

E3G’s Evans said many governments are likely to be putting their efforts into preparing their new targets for 2035, which are due in two years’s time. “Despite the massive ambition gap, the focus is less on their current targets,” he added.

UAE’s new targets

Cop28 host United Arab Emirates is among the very few nations to have revised its national climate pledge this year – just days before Al Jaber’s appeal.

The oil-producing Gulf state, which has one of the world’s highest emissions per person, strengthened its reduction goal. It now plans to limit emissions to 182 MtCO2e by 2030, a 14% improvement compared to the previous target. The new strategy also provides more transparency, setting a clear 2019 baseline and moving away from the much-criticised “business as usual” scenario used before.

At UN climate summit big polluters’ absence speaks volumes

Climate Action Tracker’s Mia Moisio said it was a positive move for the UAE but questions remain. “In terms of communication, it was the right step for the Cop host to take the leadership on this issue,” she added. “But the target is not 1.5C-compatible and big question marks remain over how they would meet it”.

The nation is planning to significantly increase oil and fossil gas production in the next years, with a goal to become “gas self-sufficient” and increase exports. Its main energy company, Adnoc, has announced a $150 billion investment plan to boost oil and gas production capacity over the next four years. Sultan Al Jaber is the CEO of Adnoc.

The Cop28 organisers have been invited to comment.

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The Global Stocktake report, the latest warning from the U.N. about environmental perils, will form the basis of the COP28 talks in Dubai at the end of the year and follows months of terrifying wildfires and soaring temperatures.

The UN report, culminating a two-year evaluation of the 2015 Paris climate agreement goals, distils thousands of submissions from experts, governments and campaigners.

“The Paris Agreement has driven near-universal climate action by setting goals and sending signals to the world regarding the urgency of responding to the climate crisis,” it said. “While action is proceeding, much more is needed now on all fronts.”

The UN report also calls on governments to scale up renewable energy and phase out all “unabated” fossil fuels, adding both are “indispensible” for a clean energy transition.

Nearly 200 countries agreed in 2015 Paris to limit warming to no more than 2 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and to strive to keep the increase to 1.5 C.

While each country is responsible for deciding its own climate actions, they also agreed to submit to a progress report by 2023 to see what more should be done. More than 130 countries sent their submissions.

The U.N. said existing national pledges to cut emissions were insufficient to keep temperatures within the 1.5 C threshold. More than 20 gigatonnes of further CO2 reductions were needed this decade – and global net zero by 2050 – in order to meet the goals, the U.N. assessment said.

Bold to-do list

The report urged countries to cut the use of “unabated” coal power by 67-92% by 2030, compared to 2019, and to virtually eliminate it as a source of electricity by 2050.

Low and zero-carbon electricity should account for as much as 99% of the global total by mid-century, and technological challenges holding back carbon capture must be resolved.

The report also called for funding to be unlocked to support low-carbon development, noting that billions of dollars were still being invested in fossil fuels.

“It serves up a bold to-do list for governments to limit warming to 1.5C and protect people everywhere from climate devastation,” said Tom Evans, policy advisor on climate diplomacy at British climate think tank E3G.

Commitment was needed to phase out fossil fuels, set 2030 targets for renewable energy expansion, ensure the financial system funds climate action, and raise funds for adaptation and damage, he said.

“Anything less will fall short on the necessary steps laid out in this report.”

Real commitments

Sultan Al Jaber, who will preside over the Nov. 30-Dec. 12 summit in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told Reuters the stocktake gave good direction, and urged states and private sector leader to come to COP28 with real commitments.

“To keep 1.5 within reach we must act with ‘ambition and urgency’ to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030,” Al Jaber said in a statement.

UN Climate Change chief, Simon Stiell, urged governments to “carefully study the findings of the report and ultimately understand what it means for them and the ambitious action they must take next.”

On Friday, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres told G20 bloc leaders that they have the power to reset a climate crisis that is “spinning out of control”.

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The European Union has sought to be a climate leader and Germany has set itself more ambitious targets than the bloc as a whole, but in many countries politics and the economic crisis have pushed the climate crisis down the agenda.

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, aims to cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 65% by 2030 compared with 1990. Last year its CO2 levels were already 40% below the 1990 level, but the new reports said that was not enough.

“The expected overall reduction is probably overestimated,” Hans-Martin Henning, the chairman of a council of climate experts that advises the government said in a statement on Tuesday.

Ecuadorians reject Amazon oil drilling in historic referendum

Failing net zero plan

The German government has ordered 130 measures in various sectors. The buildings and transport sectors in particular are failing to implement them, the council of government climate advisers’ report said.

The buildings sector is expected to be 35 million tonnes of CO2 short of target by 2030, while the transport sector is expected to have excess emissions of between 117 million and 191 million tonnes compared with the government target.

Tuesday’s advisers’ report coincided with another from the UBA that found Germany cannot become climate neutral by 2045 on the basis of planned and existing government climate policy.

US sparks controversy by backing oil company’s carbon-sucking plans

It drafted two scenarios, one for current policy and one for planned, that found only 82% and 86% of targeted emissions cuts compared to 1990, would be achieved.

“According to the current status, Germany would still emit 229 million tonnes of climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions in the target year 2045,” the UBA report found.

Government promises

The economy ministry said policies it has implemented since the current government took office in late 2021 would cut around 80% of the surplus CO2 emissions it said were a legacy of policies by the previous government. It also said the coalition government would examine the council’s findings to try to get the country on target.

Under pressure from the pro-business FDP party, the ruling coalition in June agreed to dilute a bill to phase out oil and gas heating systems from 2024. The changes would contribute to the building sector missing its targets, the report found.

Devastating Beijing floods test China’s ‘sponge cities’

The transport sector accounts for two thirds of the emissions remaining to be cut, the UBA report showed.

The council said assumptions made by the transport ministry on the effectiveness of the planned and already implemented measures, such as a discounted national rail ticket, a CO2 surcharge on truck tolls and increased working from home, were also optimistic.

“Private vehicle individual transport is not addressed, so to speak. And that is ultimately a gap in the transport programme,” Brigitte Knopf, deputy chairwoman of the council, told a news conference presenting the report findings on Tuesday.

The transport ministry was not immediately available for comment.

In response to the reports, non-profit group Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH) said an emergency climate programme was needed, especially for the transport sector.

It said it would take legal action to try to enforce a speed limit on German motorways, which currently have no limits on how fast motorists can drive, and to reduce government subsidies that harm the environment, such as tax relief for company cars.

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To have a 50:50 chance of limiting global warming to the global target of 1.5C, the IPCC’s scientists said in 2018 that the world can’t produce more than 500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.

But a new report to governments by the United Nations climate change body says that, even if governments meet their current climate targets (NDCs), they will produce about 430 gigatonnes by 2030.

That leaves just 70 gigatonnes left for after 2030. On this trajectory, that will be burned through in just two years.

Grey shows the carbon already emitted, blue is the carbon countries climate plans will result in being emitted by 2030 and black is what’s left of the carbon budget after 2030 (UNFCCC)

At the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow, all nations agreed to request each other “revisit and strengthen” their 2030 climate targets.

But just a handful did so and none of the world’s biggest emitters have suggested they will improve their targets.

Analysis by Climate Action Tracker has found that no government’s climate plans are compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C.

At Cop26, a UN work programme was set up to scale up emissions reductions in the 2020s but at Cop27 countries only debated how to set up these talks. They discussed how long they should talk for and what they should talk about.

Governments new (red) and old (grey) climate plans are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5C or 2C (UNFCCC)

With governments likely to fail to cut emissions fast enough, the IPCC’s 2018 report found that most models of an only 1.5C warmer world rely in the long-term on the world removing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than it is putting in through technologies known as carbon dioxide removal.

But, they warn that this technology “deployed at scale is unproven and reliance on such technology is a major risk in the ability to limit warming to 1.5C”.

The G7 group of big wealthy nations recently agreed to push other countries to adopt a target at  the Cop27 climate talks of peaking global emissions by 2025 at the latest.

The report says that, if climate plans are implemented in full, then emissions will peak in 2025 or earlier.

But to achieve that, developing countries must get the finance, technology and technical help that they have asked for in order to take climate action.

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The document increases ambition from India’s previous target, set in 2016, to reduce emissions for each unit of GDP 33-35% from 2005 levels by 2030.

It clarifies the target for clean energy, which caused some confusion among experts when Modi announced it at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, UK. India is aiming for half of installed electricity generation capacity to come from non-fossil sources at the end of the decade, not half of energy use, which would have been harder to achieve. 

Non-fossil capacity, which includes nuclear and large hydro dams as well as wind and solar, is around 40% today.

“It’s good that they corrected that error – it’s now a lot more real,” Swati D’Souza, India lead analyst and coordinator at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Climate Home News. “The 45% [emissions intensity] reduction target is achievable for India. It also actually gives us a lot of leg room to go over it in future.”

The timing just months ahead of Cop27 in Egypt and during an energy crisis is significant, D’Souza added. 

“India announced targets ahead of Cop27 despite the turmoil that is happening in global energy markets and with countries in Europe moving towards gas. We have stuck to our guns. That says something about the commitment of our government to decarbonise,” she said.

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Navroz Dubash, professor at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, described the 2030 goal as a “substantial pledge”.  

“It is likely to be achievable based on current policies,” he said. “Nonetheless, this is not a trivial task and will require deep structural changes in the Indian economy to de-link carbon and GDP, beyond what India has achieved in past decades.”

Dubash said the government’s decision not to commit to a clean energy generation pledge was a “missed opportunity” to curb coal. That “would have been a game-changer, because it would have required active management of thermal versus renewable energy power,” he said.  

India has a domestic target of achieving 450 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Modi’s verbal pledge to increase that to 500GW did not make the final cut. 

“Nothing analogous now remains in the international sphere,” said Dubash. “The new electricity pledge has the benefit of simplicity and clarity, but is not the benchmark for tracking Indian progress – the domestic pledge is.”

In a press statement, the government said the long-term climate goals are conditional on finance. “India will require its due share from such international financial resources and technological support,” the statement reads. 

Modi previously estimated the price tag at $1 trillion.

While the plan does not commit to sectoral emission reductions, the government highlighted policies that are expected to support the goal. These include a rollout of LED bulbs and a decarbonisation plan for Indian Railways.

Climate Action Tracker judged India’s previous goal as “highly insufficient” and in line with 4C warming, but gave the government credit for policies and actions that would outperform the target. Two thirds of its Covid stimulus package went towards a green recovery, undermined somewhat by continued support for coal development.

The updated plan is expected to be uploaded to the UN registry in the coming days. 

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Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese travelled to Suva, Fiji, this week to attend the first in-person leaders’ meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum in three years.

The meeting was an opportunity for Australia to reset its relation with its Pacific neighbours after four difficult years under Scott Morrison, who tried to water down the climate elements of the last meeting, and to counter a growing Chinese influence in the region.

The Labor government’s improved plan to cut emissions 43% between 2005 and 2030 was seen as a necessary first step for Albanese to restore Australia’s climate credentials.

A communique endorsed by all leaders, which hasn’t yet been published, is expected to welcome Australia’s renewed commitments to the forum’s climate priorities and declare “a climate emergency” in the Pacific.

But island nations want Albanese to go further. Speaking after the meeting, Fiji’s prime minister Frank Bainimarama, said: “We simply cannot settle for anything less than the survival of every Pacific island country – and that requires that all high emitting economies implement science-based plans to decisively reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature threshold.

“Most urgently, it requires that we end our fossil fuel addiction, including coal. That is our ask of Australia.”

Australia’s new climate pledge is a step-up that Fiji has long sought –– but out of the duty I owe every young person in the Pacific, I have urged @AlboMP to go further for our family’s shared future by aligning Australia’s commitment to the 1.5-degree target. pic.twitter.com/xXtPoc3Hnu

— Frank Bainimarama (@FijiPM) July 13, 2022

Pacific island leaders have recognised climate change as “the single biggest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific”.

Albanese told Australian media earlier this week that the government’s “position on climate change is something that’s really an entree to get through the door of credibility with our Pacific Island neighbours because for them, it’s a threat to their very existence.”

Australia backed Vanuatu’s request for an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice on countries’ legal obligations to protect people from climate harm. Further wrangling over the wording of the resolution is expected before it is presented for a vote at the UN general assembly.

The communique is expected to have little to say about Australia’s proposal to host the Cop29 UN climate talks with Pacific island nations in 2024.

“I would love to see a Cop come to the Pacific,” Bainimarama said. “Though I will say: the Cop negotiations are defined far more by what they produce than where they are held.”

Albanese told reporters that “every nation expressed support [for the bid] and were very enthusiastic about the idea” and that he had asked them to think about how they could engage with hosting the summit. Albanese said other bidders, including Germany, were interested in hosting the talks and a decision would be taken at Cop27 in Egypt this November.

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“If Australia wants to host the Cop, there is an expectation that they will offer more [emission-cuts],” Wesley Morgan, a researcher at the Australian Climate Council who specialises in relations with the Pacific, told Climate Home News. “It almost invites international pressure on Australia to do more.”

“Now there’s a lot of expectation on Australia to translate words into action,” Lavetanalagi Seru, regional policy coordinator of the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network told Climate Home. “We hope that the government will be able to come forward with a concrete plan to support the 1.5C lifeline.”

Palau’s president Surangel Whipps told The Sydney Morning Herald what that should look like: Australia should at least halve its emissions from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

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A report by the Australian Climate Council, published ahead of the meeting, goes further. It found that based on its economic strengths and vast untapped opportunities for renewable energy, Australia should aim to reduce its emissions 75% between 2005 and 2030.

It added that “Australia’s love affair with coal and gas must end”.

Australia’s ongoing fossil fuel expansion is a sore in its relations with islanders. On Monday, coal became the country’s most valuable export and the government, which is supportive of new gas fields, is due to decide on whether to approve 27 coal mine developments.

Civil society groups wrote to Albanese demanding he “work quickly to keep all fossil fuels in the ground”. If approved, the coal developments would produce the equivalent of 35 times Australia’s annual emissions over their lifetime, they warned. “If this goes ahead, it will be directly detrimental to the Pacific,” said Seru.

Campaigners also want Australia to restart its contributions to the Green Climate Fund, which it stopped in 2019, and provide additional funding to the region.

In 2020, Australia delivered less than a quarter of its “fair share” towards a collective goal to mobilise $100bn for developing countries. It remains one of the worst performing nations on climate finance provision.

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Under the plan, Brazil pledged to cut emissions 50% between 2005 and 2030 – up from 43% previously. A goal of 37% emissions cuts by 2025 remains.

The document describes the plan as “one of the most ambitious in the world”. But a revision to the 2005 baseline means the updated plan allows higher emissions in 2030 than Brazil’s first Paris pledge. The difference is equivalent to the annual emissions of Colombia, the Talanoa Institute calculates.

This “is against the spirit of the Paris Agreement,” Caio Borges, of Brazil’s Climate and Society Institute told Climate Home News.

Under the 2015 Paris deal and last year’s Glasgow Pact, countries are expected to progressively strengthen their climate targets.

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Brazil’s environment minister Joaquim Leite announced the 50% target during Cop26 climate talks last November. A document confirming this was submitted to the UN following a visit by Cop26 president Alok Sharma at the end of March.

Brazil has been under pressure to step up its climate plan after a first update to its 2030 target in December 2020 effectively weakened the country’s ambition.

At the time, Brazil confirmed the previously indicative target of cutting emissions 43% by 2030, while inflating the emissions baseline for 2005. The higher baseline, largely due to changes in the way forest destruction was accounted for, meant that Brazil could continue to increase its emissions while still reaching its 2030 target.

Climate Action Tracker downgraded Brazil’s scoring from “insufficient” to “highly insufficient” to meet the Paris goals.

Source: Observatório do Clima

“The new target is a failed attempt by the Bolsonaro administration to fix the mess,” the Brazilian Climate Observatory, a coalition of NGOs, said in a statement.

While it increases the nominal goal to 50% of emissions cuts, the plan uses the most recent and accurate emissions inventory for 2005, which is lower than the one used in 2020 but higher than the one in 2015.

Although an improvement on the 2020 update, this would still allow Brazil’s emissions to rise beyond the goal it set itself in 2016.

“This is like having credit card debt and only paying part of the bill,” said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory. “It’s still a step backwards, at a time when the United Nations is calling for countries to increase their ambitions.”

To match the ambition level of Brazil’s 2016 plan, taking into account the country’s latest inventory update, would require a commitment to cut emissions 49% by 2025 and 53% by 2030, according to the Talanoa Institute analysis.

Costa Rica’s ‘leave it in the ground’ policy in doubt after election

Sectoral pledges made at Cop26 on cutting methane emissions and achieving zero deforestation by 2030 are not reflected in the updated plan and civil society wasn’t consulted.

The Brazilian government argues that the same methodological modification that increased the 2005 baseline could also increase the volume of emissions in 2030. But “a systematic legal interpretation of the Paris Agreement reveals that nothing in the agreement indicates that a country is allowed to move backwards in its ambition,” Borges said.

The update to Brazil’s climate plan comes as deforestation is rising and the government is planning an expansion of oil and gas drilling across the country – emboldened by international sanctions on Russia and demand for alternative sources.

“Brazil is opening new oil frontiers such as the onshore exploration in the Amazon and offshore in the river mouth,” where it could take a decade for production to start, Ilan Zugman, 350.org’s Latin America managing director, told Climate Home.

On Wednesday, the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) opened the auction of 379 oil and gas exploration areas, against opposition from local fishing communities and indigenous people.

The auction is taking place in addition to a permanent bidding process for 1,068 drilling blocks covering 462,500 square kilometers – an area 15 times as big as Belgium.

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Under the agreement from Cop26, countries are asked to “revisit and strengthen” their 2030 climate plans by the end of 2022 to align with the Paris temperature goals, “taking into account different national circumstances”.

The onus is on climate laggards such as Australia, China, India, Brazil and Russia, whose targets are all ranked as “highly” or even “critically insufficient” to meet the Paris Agreement goals by Climate Action Tracker (CAT). CAT analysis suggests that current policies put the world on course for 2.7C heating, an 0.2C improvement compared to last year but far from the 1.5C aspirational target of Paris.

Australia, the biggest laggard among rich nations, has already made it clear that it has no intention of strengthening its 2030 plan, which aims to reduce emissions by 26-28%, compared to 2005 levels. If all other countries followed a similar trajectory, it would set the world on a path for 4C of warming, according to CAT.

In a statement released just one day after the negotiations finished, Scott Morrison’s government said: “Australia’s 2030 target is fixed and we are committed to meeting and beating it, as we did with our Kyoto-era targets.”

During an interview with Australian media, the country’s deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce said “we are happy with our 2030 targets… they are fixed.” When asked why his government adopted the pact, he said: “I didn’t sign it, I wasn’t there.”

The breakdown: What is in the Glasgow Climate Pact? 

Kevin Rudd, Australia’s former prime minister and president of the Asia Society, condemned the remarks, saying: “Countries like my own have not simply been granted a leave pass to do nothing for another five years — and they will now need to come back to the table by Cop27 next year.”

The climate minister of New Zealand, which has a “highly insufficient” 2030 climate target of 30% compared to 2005 levels, has also said they have no intention of revisiting it. James Shaw told national media that the pact encouraged countries to revise their targets, “but it doesn’t mean you have to”.

Shaw said: “There are some countries including the larger emitters, that didn’t upgrade their commitments and so that piece of language is really aimed at those countries.”

India is the biggest emitter not to have submitted an updated nationally determined contribution (NDC, in the UN climate jargon) to the Paris Agreement ahead of the Glasgow talks.

Prime minister Narendra Modi announced stronger targets in Glasgow, but has yet to formalise them – and national media later quoted an official saying the increased ambition was contingent on rich countries suppling $1 trillion of finance.

Cop26: After tense huddles in Glasgow, countries strike ‘uncomfortable’ climate deal

Others like China, Russia  and Brazil went through the motions of updating their NDCs but with no strengthening of headline targets.

“Only 25% of the emissions gap [to 1.5C] has been closed by the enhanced NDCs,” Deborah Ramalope from Climate Analytics told Climate Home News. “Most major emitters have the capabilities to aim higher,” she said, adding that new finance would help unlock ambition from countries such as India and Indonesia. 

One emerging economy that significantly increased its ambition before Cop26 was South Africa, boosted by an $8.5 billion package of support to reduce its reliance on coal.

“What we will need to see next year to enable any of the big emerging economies to come forward with more ambitious targets is more confidence that the finance they are going to need to implement those shifts will be available,”  Alex Scott, E3G’s climate diplomacy programme leader, told Climate Home News.

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The UK presidency has a key role to play over the next year to make it politically feasible for countries to increase their targets, said Scott.

Ahead of Cop27 in Egypt next year, the presidency should create “spaces for conversation” not just on emission reduction but also on developing country priorities like finance for climate-induced losses, added Scott, “so that when countries come together in Egypt they are able to have a serious dialogue on what finance looks like, rather than it ending up being a talking shop.”

A spokesperson for the Cop26 presidency did not respond to Climate Home’s questions.

Cop26 president Alok Sharma told reporters: “This is an international agreement. All countries have signed up to this. Every country will be judged by whether or not they stick to the commitments they made.”

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If countries meet their 2030 emission targets in full, global heating could be limited to 2.6-2.7C this century, according to the UN Emissions Gap report. Collective ambition needs to be seven times higher to align with the most ambitious 1.5C goal of the Paris Agreement.

So the UK Cop26 presidency is considering a proposal for the final Glasgow outcome to demand another round of updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2023.

It is backed by Christiana Figueres, former head of UN Climate Change and architect of the Paris deal. “At Cop26… there has been to be a clear agreement that governments will come back in 2023… to guarantee that we are on a path to 1.5C,” she said in a press briefing.

But the idea is meeting resistance from emerging economies, who want more support to meet existing targets before rewriting them.

“This talk of another round of [climate plans] will just feed into the hot air which is already plenty in the Cop process,” Pakistan’s climate minister Malik Amin Aslam told Climate Home News.

“The huge gap between what is already in the NDCs and what is actually being implemented needs to be plugged instead of another round of updating NDCs. Let’s talk climate action and not bureaucratic and endless updating of meaningless NDCs.”

‘Chess game’ as negotiators seek elusive carbon market deal at Cop26

Under the Paris accord, countries agreed to ratchet up their plans, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs), every five years. But vulnerable and progressive nations argue that waiting until 2025 to step up ambition is too late to keep 1.5C in reach.

Instead, they argue that countries should revise their plans “as soon as possible and ahead of the global stocktake in 2023,” when UN Climate Change is due to formally take stock of all progress made in meeting the Paris goals.

The UK has made keeping 1.5C within reach this decade the overarching objective for Cop26. While the gap to 1.5C won’t be closed in Glasgow, the hosts want to emerge with a plan for further tightening ambition.

The issue has been gathering steam since a ministerial meeting in July. In a letter to all parties ahead of the Glasgow summit, Sharma said countries will need to agree on a “roadmap for strengthening 2030 NDCs as necessary ahead of, and through, the global stocktake in 2023.”

The Climate Vulnerable Forum, which represents 48 nations on the front line of climate impacts, is going even further with a call for annual updates to NDCs until 2025.

Jennifer Tollmann, a senior policy advisor at think tank E3G, told Climate Home News there is “a real-world need to improve NDCs before 2025,” explaining that “we need at least seven years to make the appropriate economic and investment decisions” to halve emissions this decade.

Australia is relying on offsets and future technology to meet 2050 net zero target

The UK recognised that asking countries to step up their carbon-cutting efforts again in the next two years also required action on adaptation and financial support to the developing world. That could include a commitment for climate finance to be evenly split between adaptation and mitigation for example.

In a policy note shared with leaders taking part in a high-level summit at Cop26, and seen by Climate Home, the UK called on heads of government to give negotiators “a clear direction” to agree on a pathway that accelerates action this decade.

But for Esther Tamara, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia, the lack of finance for developing countries will be “a huge stumbling block” to agree to more climate efforts.

On Monday wealthy nations announced that they won’t meet a long-overdue commitment to mobilise $100bn a year between 2020 and 2025 before 2023 –providing developing countries with no means or incentives to up their targets.

“I don’t think the Indonesian government will respond to another round of NDCs so soon positively. Even now, we can see Indonesia is dragging its feet to pursue transformational climate commitments and emissions reductions target,” Tamara told Climate Home.

Meanwhile the Indian government is unlike to agree to anything more ambitious until “it sees money on the table,” Navroz Dubash, professor at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, told Climate Home.

Like Pakistan and Indonesia, India is a member of a group of “like-minded” developing countries that emphasises the historic responsibility of rich countries to cut emissions deeper and faster. In a statement last week, the group accused the Cop26 host of going “against climate justice” by calling on all to set mid century net zero targets.

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One week ahead of Cop26, the Gulf state announced it will slash its emissions to net zero by 2060 and strengthen its carbon target this decade – subject to revenue from exporting oil and gas.

Neither target counts the emissions from the burning of huge amounts of oil that Saudi Arabia exports to other countries, leaving climate watchers unimpressed. The Gulf state pumps one in 10 oil barrels consumed each day in the world.

Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman announced he would invest 700 billion riyals ($187 billion) in climate action this decade and stressed that Saudi Arabia would continue producing oil and gas. The targets would be achieved “while preserving and reinforcing the kingdom’s leading role in the security and stability of global energy markets, with the availability and maturity of required technologies to manage and reduce emissions,” he said at an environment summit in Riyadh on Saturday, before meeting with US climate envoy John Kerry on Monday.

In its submission to the UN, the Kingdom said that by 2030 it would reduce, avoid and remove 278 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent a year. That is more than double its previous target of 130 million tonnes, which was ranked “critically insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker.

Observers at the Riyadh event tweeted that this amounted to a 35% reduction in emissions from business as usual.

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Half of the country’s electricity in 2030 will come from renewables, according to the updated plan. Today less than 1% of Saudi Arabia’s power comes from solar, with the rest generated by burning oil and gas. The Kingdom said in March that it would plant 10 billion trees over the coming decades to combat desertification and reduce emissions. 

To cut its emissions, the government said it would use a “circular carbon economy” approach, which means relying on carbon capture and storage to allow continued use of fossil fuels.

Following the government announcement, state oil firm Saudi Aramco said it would cut emissions from its operations to net zero by 2050. That applies to oil production and processing, known as scope 1 and 2, but not the much higher emissions when the fuel is consumed, scope 3.

In its new climate plan, the Kingdom signed up to a global methane pledge, joining more than 30 countries aiming to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. At the same time, Aramco is considering an increase its oil production from 12 million to 13 million barrels a day.

“The Saudis see robust long-term demand for their crude oil, even as global oil demand shrinks. Saudi Arabia has enormous resources as well as the world’s lowest production costs. As non-Opec supply gradually declines, their comparative advantage will be clear and their market share should grow,” Ben Cahill, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Climate Home News. “At the same time, the net-zero pledge raises the pressure for Saudi Arabia to decarbonise its oil and gas production.”

“Saudi Arabia makes no plan to reduce its fossil fuel exports. In fact the Saudi announcement makes its climate commitments conditional on its ability to maintain its fossil fuel exports,” Karim Elgendy, associate fellow in the environment and society programme at Chatham House, told Climate Home News.

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Climate campaigners said to be truly ambitious, Saudi Arabia needed to phase down oil production.

“We question the seriousness of this announcement, as it comes in parallel with plans for the Kingdom to increase its oil production to 13 million barrels per day,” Greenpeace Middle East and North Africa campaigns manager Ahmad El Droubi said in a statement. “[It] seems to simply be a strategic move to alleviate political pressure ahead of COP26,” he added.

“Scopes 1, 2 and 3 and then there is Scope Saudi,” Rachel Kyte, former adviser to the UN secretary general on sustainable energy, wrote on Twitter. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that investors should not fund new oil, gas and coal supply projects beyond this year if the world is to meet net zero by 2050, in line with a 1.5C global warming limit. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman previously mocked the IEA’s 2050 target, calling it “a sequel to [the] ‘La La Land’ movie”.

The target depends on using oil revenues to diversify the economy. The climate plan outlines two scenarios. In one, oil export revenues are used to build high value industries like financial services, tourism and clean energy. In the other, oil and gas are used at home as a feedstock for petrochemicals or energy source for heavy industry. The speed and extent of economic diversification could depend on oil prices and export revenues, said Elgendy.

According to analysis by the state-backed think tank Kapsarc, oil’s share of Saudi Arabia’s total GDP has declined from 65% in 1991 to 42% in 2019.

Jim Krane, energy geopolitics expert at Rice University in Houston, said: “Saudi Arabia is serious about cutting emissions and fossil fuel use, but mostly inside its own borders. For the Saudi net zero goal to succeed, Riyadh needs the world to continue buying and burning its oil.”

Saudi Arabia and UAE, which made a similar commitment earlier this month, are using their goals to “buy influence in climate talks,” said Krane.

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The goal, which was first announced by former prime minister Yoshihide Suga at Joe Biden’s climate summit in April, is a strengthening of Japan’s previous pledge to reduce emissions by 26%.

In a submission of its updated plan to the UN on Tuesday, the world’s third largest economy said it will “continue strenuous efforts in its challenge to meet the lofty goal of cutting its emission by 50 percent”.

Earlier this year, campaigners called on the government to turn the aspiration 50% target into a firm emission reduction goal.

To deliver on its pledge, Japan said it will make “all possible efforts” to cut emissions through energy efficiency measures, the roll out of renewable energy, and by decarbonising public sectors and local communities.

By 2030, Japan says that about 100 million tonnes of CO2 will be avoided through international carbon trading using the country's Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM).

That means Japan will fund carbon-cutting projects in developing countries and account for the emissions reduction towards its own goal. South Korea and Switzerland have also said they planned to use carbon trading to achieve their targets.

Projects currently in development in Thailand under the JCM include green heating for a chicken slaughtering plant, floating and rooftop solar power projects and energy efficient lighting.

Campaigners have criticised the government over its plan to buy offsets abroad rather than cut its own emissions at homes.

"I think Japan should cut [emissions] more domestically," Friends of the Earth Japan campaigner Ayumi Fukakusa told Climate Home News.

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Carbon Market Watch policy officer Gilles Dufrasne said: "Countries should reduce their own emissions and set domestic emission reductions targets that match what they can achieve at home."

He added: "Carbon markets can have a role to play in disbursing climate finance, for example through results-based payments agreements, but 'netting' emissions across countries to meet [climate plans] is a risky game that has not worked well in the past."

Lidy Nacpil, of the Philippines, is co-ordinator of the Asian Peoples' Movement on Debt and Development, which has previously participated in the JCM.

"Using offsets is avoiding responsibility and passing it on to others," she said. "The world has no more time left for this nonsense."

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But Indonesian energy analyst Putra Adhiguna, of Ieefa, disagreed. He described the JCM as a transparent and "commendable initiative" which has "enabled many emission reduction projects which otherwise would not take place in the partner countries".

While "the logic of JCM to reduce emissions where the cost could be lower is fairly reasonable," it "should be considered a complementary item from what is a (much) bigger task back home in Japan," he added.

International rules for a global carbon credit market have yet to be finalised and will be up for discussion at Cop26 in Glasgow next month. Japan said it would use its experience of the JCM "to lead [these] international discussions".

Other analysts explained Japan's reliance on offsets by the fact its planned energy transition is too slow.

New Climate Institute researcher Takeshi Kuramochi said: "It is problematic that the Japanese government still expects a rather high 19% coal share in the 2030 electricity mix. Equally problematic is the 20-22% nuclear share target, which I find to be unrealistically high."

Countries failing to protect forests, 7 years after New York declaration

Under its plan, Japan said it will cut methane emissions 11% between 2013 and 2030.

But Clean Air Task Force director Jonathan Banks questioned whether this was compatible with Japan's recent signing of the Global Methane Pledge, which calls on countries to reduce collective methane emissions 30% this decade.

The pledge, which was pushed by the US and the EU, has now been signed by more than 30 countries.

"I would hope that the targets for methane reduction would be revised to reflect that greater ambition," Banks said.

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In 2014, more than 200 governments, companies, civil society and indigenous organisations signed up to the New York Declaration on Forests, promising to halve tropical deforestation by 2020 and end it by 2030.

A progress report on the declaration found that a majority of forest nations have not embedded those goals in their latest climate pledges to the UN.

The report analysed the climate plans of the 32 countries with the greatest potential to reduce carbon emissions through three activities: curbing deforestation, improving forest management and restoring or planting new forests. Twelve of the 32 had signed up to the NY declaration. Just 10, including Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, set explicit targets for forest protection.

“We found that they cover approximately half of the [combined mitigation] potential with their ambition. If we take out India, which has a very ambitious target for tree planting, it’s only 16%,” Franziska Haupt, lead author of the report and managing partner at Climate Focus, told Climate Home News. India has pledged to increase its forest cover by 95 million hectares by 2030. 

Green Climate Fund: Board fights over net zero condition for accessing finance

There have been some successful policies, such as moratoria on timber exports and palm oil plantations in Indonesia and Laos, but much bolder reforms are needed to prevent further forest loss, the report says.

“It is clear that all these positive steps have not been able to curb the powerful drivers of unsustainable land use,” said Haupt. In several countries, such as Brazil and Peru, the government has rolled back environmental safeguards and monitoring in recent years, leading to an increase in deforestation, she added.

Land use change, including deforestation and degradation, accounts for around 10-12% of global emissions, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Around 12.2 million hectares of tropical forests were lost in 2020, an increase of 12% compared to the previous year, according to data from the University of Maryland and Global Forest Watch.

“Forests have not been recognised for their potential. They offer an essential climate solution, we cannot miss them. That has not really arrived in mainstream policymaking,” said Haupt. 

Between 2001-2020, forests removed up to 7.35 gigatonnes of CO2 a year from the atmosphere, according to the report. Forests managed by indigenous communities in Peru, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are net carbon sinks and can play a key role in helping these countries meet their climate goals, it says.

UAE sets net zero by 2050 target, promises renewable investments

One major obstacle to ramping up global forest protection is the lack of finance, said Haupt. 

Since 2010, countries have spent an average of $2.4 billion a year on national and international forest and climate goals. That is between 0.5%-5% of what is needed to protect and restore forests, estimated to be as high as $460 billion per year. Around a quarter of the 32 countries analysed say that their forest targets can only be met if they have access to international finance. 

“Forests offer the third highest mitigation potential, after the industry and energy sectors, yet they receive only a fraction of climate finance,” Haupt told Climate Home. “In 2017 and 2018 the land use sector – including forests and agriculture – received only 21 billion annually in public and private climate finance. The energy sector received 16 times as much.”

“When it comes to protecting forests, there is a yawning gap between where governments are and where they need to be. We won’t tackle climate change without looking after forests and the people who depend on them,” said Allison Hoare, senior research fellow on forest governance at Chatham House.

“We have the solutions to tackle deforestation, but they are still not being implemented at scale. Land use decisions are often made by the elite who prioritise short-term economic interests,” said Hoare, adding that forest-dependent communities must be included in consultation processes.

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The government recently submitted plans to the UN to make 100% of its cars run on electricity or alternative fuels and to get 95% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

“Our vision is that by 2030 most Barbadian homes will have solar PV panels on their roofs and an electric vehicle in their garage,” prime minister Mia Mottley said in December.

At the same time, the government is supporting two oil and gas exploration schemes in its Caribbean waters. One is with Australian company BHP and the other is with the government of Trinidad and Tobago.

Climate envoy Hugh Sealy said the government planned to support oil and gas production but not use it domestically. He called this the “Norwegian model”. “If we find oil and gas offshore, we can’t ignore it but it cannot be used in our domestic economy,” he said.

Barbados’s updated climate plan aims to reduce the island state’s emissions, relative to a business as usual projection, 35% by 2030. This rises to 70% if it gets financial support from other countries.

Barbados’s projected emissions. Business as usual is in red. Its conditional target is in green (Photo: Government of Barbados/Screenshot)

On the international stage, Mottley has led calls for green debt relief and received a prominent billing at the UK’s December 2020 climate ambition summit, speaking ahead of India’s Narendra Modi and the Pope.

The plan involves pivoting rapidly from oil for power generation to rooftop solar and wind with battery storage. As of 2015, over 90% of Barbados’s electricity came from imported oil and World Bank data shows the price of electricity is 60% higher than the global average.

As well as the climate benefits, reducing reliance on oil imports has financial benefits, Sealy said. In an island exposed to hurricanes, rooftop solar power is more resilient than centralised generation distributed through power lines, which can be knocked over by strong winds.

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The government hopes to launch a revolving fund, through which Barbadians are loaned the money for rooftop solar panels and pay back the government from the savings on their energy bill.

Sealy said that this pace of transition involved a cost premium of up to 30% compared to a natural progression towards renewable energy. “But we’re prepared to pay that cost premium because we recognise this something that we have to do.”

It would not necessarily lead to higher bills for consumers, he said, as that depended on oil price fluctuations, the pace of renewable cost reductions and sale of carbon credits.

Hurricane Laura takes down power lines in Louisiana in 2020. (Photo: Julie Dermansky/Greenpeace)

As solar and wind energy are variable, energy experts have debated whether they can be relied on to provide 100% of a country’s energy.

Sealy said: “You can’t have an unreliable electricity sector… no tourist is going to want to come to an island where the air conditioning cuts out all the time.”

But he said that that grid operator Emera had worked with North American consultants on its energy plan and found that it was technically feasible.

On vehicles, Barbados’s plans are one of the most ambitious in the world. They plan to make all passenger vehicles run on electricity or alternative fuels by 2030.

This is arguably more ambitious than the plans of countries in Europe or North America, which have pledged only to ban new sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars by a given date between 2030 and 2040.

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Sealy said that if Barbados banned ICE sales today, the lifetime of vehicles means around 30% of the vehicles on the roads in 2030 would still be ICE.

So, while this transition from ICE to electric vehicles takes place, he said that ICE vehicles will have to run partly on ethanol, biodiesel and biogas.

Julius Adiatma, biofuel researcher at Indonesian think tank IESR, told Climate Home News that, without modifying an ICE, they can only use between 10% and 30% ethanol or biodiesel. The rest of the fuel must be traditional fuels like petrol.

Altering vehicles so they can run just on ethanol would be a “new investment that will take some time to pay back,” he added. “This may slow down the rate of electric vehicle sales, as people will probably wait for another 10+ years after their investment before switching to electric vehicles.”

Francis Johnson, Stockholm Environment Institute researcher on biofuels, said Barbados can make fuel from homegrown crops like sugarcane.

Around the world, electric vehicle uptake is often hindered by a lack of charging facilities and “range anxiety”. But Barbados is so small, Sealy said, that you can go around three times with one battery charge.

The post Barbados pursues ‘Norwegian model’: going green at home and drilling for oil appeared first on Climate Home News.

Delayed by a year because of the coronavirus pandemic, heads of state, diplomats, business leaders, campaigners and journalists are due to meet in person in Glasgow, UK, from 31 October to 12 November.

The hosts are aiming to mobilise a step up in climate action and keep hope alive of meeting the tougher goal of the Paris Agreement: limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C.

That means curbing emissions deeper and faster, adapting to a new era of climate impacts and scaling up the financial support developing nations need to build low-carbon and resilient economies.

Here is what you need to know about the conference.

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First things first. What is a Cop? 

“Cop” is short for Conference of the Parties, which refers to the meeting of the 197 members to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, known as UN Climate Change.

The talks are hosted every year by a different country and bring together delegates from every national government to advance global efforts to prevent dangerous climate change.

Cop1 was held in Berlin, Germany, in 1995. This year, the 26^th session of the talks is known as Cop26.

At the core of the Cop are negotiations on the legal mechanisms for governments to hold each other accountable. Orbiting that core are politicians, business leaders, campaigners and journalists, engaged in a lively discourse on what climate action means in the real world.

Who is in charge at Cop26?

The UK and Italy are joint presidents of Cop26. As host of the main event, the UK government has the bigger role, in coordination with the devolved administration in Scotland. Italy is due to hold some pre-Cop meetings in Milan.

Alok Sharma, a politician with the UK’s ruling Conservative Party, was appointed Cop26 president in February 2020. For nearly a year, Sharma also served as business and energy minister before dropping ministerial responsibilities to focus exclusively on Cop26 preparations.

UN Climate Change is responsible for keeping the climate negotiating process running year to year, led by Mexican diplomat Patricia Espinosa.

Cop26 president designate Alok Sharma of the UK meets China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua in Tianjin, China (Photo: Alok Sharma/Twitter/Flickr)

How is ambition measured at Cop26? 

A key responsibility of the Cop26 presidency is to mobilise greater ambition from other nations. This is primarily measured against the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.

In 2015, in Paris, 197 countries agreed to collectively cut emissions to limit global temperature rise “well below 2C” and strive for 1.5C. To meet this goal, every country was asked to contribute emissions reductions and set out targets for doing so by 2025 or 2030. These plans are known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

This bottom-up approach means governments decide how fast to decarbonise their economies. But the plans submitted so far will lead to a lot more than 1.5C of warming by the end of the century – 2.4C if implemented in full, according to analysis published by Climate Action Tracker in May.

UN Climate Change found that updated plans by the end of 2020 put the world on track to stabilise emissions by 2030. To halt heating at 1.5C, scientists say global emissions need to fall 45% from 2010 levels in that time.

Cop21 president Laurent Fabius holds up the text of the Paris Agreement (Photo: IISD/ENB/ Kiara Worth)

What needs to happen now? 

Under the Paris Agreement, every country agreed to update their NDCs every five years, with each plan more ambitious than the last and reflecting their “highest possible ambition”.

Cop26, which was due to take place in 2020, is the first test of this “ratchet mechanism”.

The US, Canada, the EU and the UK are among 110 countries, largely developing economies, to have formally submitted improved plans to the UN by the end of July. But many of the world’s largest emitters missed the repeatedly extended deadline. China, India and Saudi Arabia’s plans are notably absent from the list.

Others like Australia merely reaffirmed old targets with no increase in ambition. Brazil even weakened its commitment by changing its baseline.

Ahead of Cop26, the UK will need to use its diplomatic clout to get Beijing, New Delhi and others to commit to stronger targets.

What else are the organisers trying to achieve? 

UK prime minister Boris Johnson has summarised the host nation’s agenda for the conference as: “coal, cash, cars and trees”. Let’s unpack that.

Coal: The UK wants to make Cop26 the summit that “consigns coal to history”. The G7 agreed in May to end new direct government support for unabated coal power by the end of 2021 – but avoided setting an exit timeline for burning the fuel. Italy is trying to orchestrate a similar pledge from the G20, against resistance from members like China, Russia and India.

Cash: Developed countries agreed in 2009 to mobilise $100 billion a year in climate finance to the developing world by 2020. At the last count, they were $20bn short. Germany and Canada have been tasked with making a plan to plug the gap ahead of Cop26. This is critical to trust in the process for recipient nations. Negotiations are due to start on what the next collective finance goal beyond 2025 should look like. Then there are various initiatives to “shift the trillions” of private sector cash towards achieving global net zero emissions by mid-century.

Cars: The UK is hoping to speed up a switch to electric vehicles, proposing a 2040 deadline for selling the last petrol cars. It established a Zero Emission Vehicle Transition Council bringing together ministers and representatives of major car markets – although China was not on the list.

Trees: “Calling time on deforestation” is another Cop26 goal. Together with the US and Norway, the UK launched the Leaf Coalition, which aims to mobilise $1 billion of public and private finance in 2021 to cut emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

Did they miss anything?

That four-word soundbite does not cover everybody’s priorities. The world’s poorest countries, which don’t have too many cars or coal plants to worry about, want to see more action to address the impacts of climate change they are already experiencing.

The Paris Agreement established a global goal on adaptation to climate impacts, but six years later it is still unclear what that means in practice. The agreement has a section on loss and damage, in recognition that people are already losing homes, lives and livelihoods to extreme weather turbocharged by the fossil fuel burning of the industrialised world, but practical support has been slow to follow.

With those climate vulnerabilities compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic, the least developed countries are calling for a solidarity package that includes progress on these neglected topics.

It remains to be seen how progress on any of these elements will be packaged into a meeting outcome. Some climate thinkers are proposing a Glasgow PACT.

UN talks in Copenhagen in 2009 (Photo: UN Climate Change/Flickr)

What do negotiators need to agree on?

There are technical issues negotiators in Glasgow will need to address.

The Paris Agreement rulebook was due to be finalised three years ago at Cop24 in Katowice, Poland, but a number of contentious items remain unresolved.

These include the rules of a new global carbon market, under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. How to avoid double counting emissions reductions, the role of old credits from the Kyoto climate regime under the new system and whether to allocate a share of proceeds from the market to the Adaptation Fund are among the stickiest issues.

Negotiators will also need to find agreement on the transparency rules for reporting emissions reductions and whether countries’ future climate plans should all cover the same time period of 5 or 10 years.

A passenger has his temperature checked at Incheon airport, South Korea (Pic: Jens-Olaf Walter/Flickr)

What about the Covid-19 pandemic? 

The organisers are planning for around 20,000 people to attend Cop26 in person, despite the ongoing threat of Covid-19 infections. They insist the health and safety of participants and the host community is paramount.

But stark inequalities of the vaccine roll out between rich and poorer nations have raised serious concerns about participation from developing countries. As of 4 September, 64% of the UK population had been fully vaccinated. For many African countries, the figure was less than 5%.

While vaccines are not mandatory to attend the summit, the UK host “strongly encourages” all delegates to be vaccinated. With the UN, the UK government set up a Cop26 vaccination programme to provide jabs to delegates who aren’t able to access vaccines in their home country. The first doses are expected to reach delegates in September.

There are other financial and logistical barriers to participation. Delegates travelling from countries on the UK’s “red list” will need to isolate in a quarantine hotel facility for five days if they are vaccinated and 10 if they aren’t. The UK government has offered to foot the bill.

A Covid-19 protocol is also being put in place for the conference with regular testing, masks and social distancing.

The post What is Cop26 and why does it matter? Your guide to the Glasgow climate summit appeared first on Climate Home News.

Countries had until midnight central European time on Friday to submit their plans to UN Climate Change, with emissions cutting targets for 2030.

Just over half of all parties to the Paris Agreement, 110, made the deadline with an estimated 40% of them from climate vulnerable nations – a tally UN Climate Change described as “far from satisfactory”.

There was a rush of submissions this week with Guinea, Israel, Oman, Zambia, Tanzania, Seychelles, Namibia, Nigeria, Malawi, Sri Lanka, Samoa, Malaysia, Barbados, Sao Tome and Principe, and Sierra Leone getting their plans in. US and Canada are among the major economies to have submitted since the last count.

But some of the world’s largest emitters, including China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa, have remained silent.

Alex Scott, think tank E3G’s climate diplomacy lead, told Climate Home News that leadership on 2030 emissions reductions plans was still coming from small island developing states and developing nations “whose emissions are towered by G20 countries”.

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Under the Paris Agreement, 2020 was the year countries were expected to present improved climate plans to UN Climate Change as part of a ratchet mechanism to meet the accord’s goals. But the coronavirus pandemic derailed the process.

A UN synthesis report published in February, which took into account updated plans submitted to the UN by the end of 2020, found that collective ambition was “very far” from putting the world on track to limit global heating to 1.5C.

At the time, only 75 countries covering around 30% of global emissions had submitted updated plans, including the EU and UK. Their pledges were estimated to reduce emissions by just 0.5% between 2010 and 2030.

Scott said the findings had come as a “reality check” and had helped “build a stronger political narrative for the outcome at Cop26 to be a pathway for how countries are going to act faster to keep 1.5C within reach”.

A backdrop of extreme heat in Northern America, devastating flooding in Europe and China and intense wildfires in Siberia and Turkey have further underlined the urgency for major emitters to curb emissions.

Around the world, climate change committees are steering government action

But despite some renewed political momentum, the picture isn’t likely to change much without enhanced action from emerging economies.

Niklas Höhne, a climate policy expert at the NewClimate Institute, told Climate Home News there remained a “gigantic gap” between current levels of emissions and the action needed by 2030.

Commitments made as of April would still lead to 2.4C of warming by the end of the century if implemented in full, according to Climate Action Tracker. 

“With all the pledges on the table we are basically stabilising global emissions by 2030 when we should be cutting them by half,” said Höhne.

Leading scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have said emissions should fall 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 to limit temperatures to 1.5C by the end of the century.

The picture for long-term goals is slightly better. NewClimate Institute’s latest estimates found that if all net zero emissions goals are met, the world could limit temperatures to 2C, in the most optimistic scenario, by the end of the century, said Höhne.

“The long-term ambition has improved significantly in the last six months but it has not propagated to short-term ambition and short-term action,” he added.

Ethiopia to shift from beef to chicken production under updated climate plan

During a meeting of climate and ministers last week, all G20 countries agreed to “update or communicate ambitious NDCs by Cop26”.

Among those to have already submitted, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Russia put forward emissions targets to the UN identical to or weaker than their previous versions, Climate Action Tracker found. Earlier this month, Indonesia updated its NDC, with unchanged headline targets but plans to peak emissions by 2030 and strengthened sectoral policies.

UN Climate Change head Patricia Espinosa said the UN had called on countries that have already presented their plans “to look at them again, and if possible, come up with revised NDCs”.  

China, which is responsible for around 27% of global emissions, is only proposing an incremental strengthening of its 2030 climate plan, which Climate Action Tracker rates as “highly insufficient” to meet the Paris goals.

“Cop26 is the good faith actor test for China,” Li Shuo, of Greenpeace East Asia, told Climate Home News.

“Ultimately, there is going to be nowhere to hide at Cop26. Each of us will be in the spotlight,” warned Cop26 president designate Alok Sharma during a press conference on Monday.

The post China, India miss UN’s extended deadline for climate pledges appeared first on Climate Home News.

The East African nation country has more livestock than anywhere else in Africa. The sector, dominated by cattle, accounts for 48% of national greenhouse gas emissions, according to its improved climate plan submitted to the UN this week. 

The government has identified agriculture as a priority sector to help create rural employment opportunities, boost exports and help achieve economic growth of 10% a year over the next decade.

Urbanisation and a growing population is expected to increase demand for meat, which risks driving up methane emissions, Fekadu Beyene Aleka, commissioner for the environment, forest and climate change commission of Ethiopia, told Climate Home News.

Cattle belch methane, which has a stronger warming effect than carbon dioxide. To limit methane emissions, the government wants to increase the share of poultry, fish, and small ruminants. Under its updated climate plan, Ethiopia said it wants to replace non-dairy cattle with chickens, sheep and goats.

By 2030, the government wants to increase the amount of commercial chickens sold from 33,000 tons to nearly 81,000 tons and produce nearly five times more sheep and six times more goats.

The plan includes replacing cattle and oxen used as working animals with tractors and improving the health and productivity of cattle to produce more diary and meat per animal.

The measures are projected to reduce emissions by 7.6% compared with business as usual by 2030 – subject to international finance.

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Ethiopia said it would cut emissions nearly 69% below business as usual in the next nine years, conditional on 80% of the $316 billion price tag coming from international sources.

Ethiopia contributes just 0.04% to global emissions and has 1.5% of the global population.

With national resources alone, Ethiopia pledged to cut emissions 14% below business as usual by 2030 – which would see emissions increase slightly compared to 2010. The calculations are based on a revised 2010 baseline, which reflects updated economic and emissions data.

After livestock, the land-use and forestry sector is the second largest source of emissions in Ethiopia and provides the largest potential for emissions reductions. 

By restoring 5 million hectares of forests and reforesting 3 million hectares of land by 2030, the government hopes to turn the sector from a source of emissions into a carbon sink – reducing the sector’s emissions by 171% compared with business as usual projections for 2030. 

The plan was developed on the country’s 10-year development plan finalised in 2020 and its Climate Resilience and Green Economy Strategy.

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Commissioner Beyene told Climate Home the document “isn’t just a political statement, it’s a technically sound plan”.

With nearly 80% of the population living in rural areas as smallholder farmers, livestock is mainly used a means of livelihood in Ethiopia. Cattle and beef are exported to neighbouring countries, bringing cash income to farmers and pastoralists for whom keeping live animals is also a sign of social prestige, Beyene said.

“It’s also about shifting the culture from keeping large animals to small animals,” he said, adding that implementing the measure will require engagement with communities, adequate market infrastructure for farmers and incentives that will be piloted on small-scale projects.

“People don’t want to move away from the status quo unless there is a proven opportunity,” he said.

Cynthia Elliott, of the Global Climate Programme at the World Resources Institute, which supported a consortium of consultants to help the government update its climate plan, told Climate Home that given Ethiopia’s limited resources, the government has shown “tremendous ambition”.

She described measures to shift from beef to poultry as “still a bit exploratory”, with the details to be worked out.

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For Simon Addison, of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), promoting the diversification of the livestock sector may do more to help the country adapt to climate impacts than cut emissions.

“If you are looking at this as a measure to increase production and market value of the livestock sector and increase its resilience by diversifying the animal mix, this offers quite a reasonable strategy,” he said. “I am not sure it’s such a good way to deal with the mitigation side as it massively increases the scale of the livestock sector.”

Sheep and goats, which browse on bushes and shrubs, are relatively resilient to the droughts that are becoming more frequent in the Horn of Africa because of climate change. Cattle need more water and access to green pasture.

Pastoralists affected by drought or conflict that have lost their livestock or access to grasslands are increasingly looking to poultry as an alternative livelihood. “Poultry can be a good option for those who are no longer mobile,” Addison said.” It is possible to produce quite intensively, with little capital and it has a high market value.”

Although there already is a significant shift towards diversifying livestock among pastoralists, the measure could be seen as a top-down “imposition of maladaptive measures” from the government onto communities that want to continue mobile beef production, Addison warned. This could have “serious implications for cultural norms, social capital and social dynamics among mobile pastoralists,” he said.

Through holistic rangeland management, mobile pastoralism can also help sequester carbon in the soil and improve rangeland health, he added.

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And the share of agriculture in the GDP is predicted to fall by nearly half between 2011 and 2030, while construction and services are expected to drive economic growth, with urbanisation and industry increasing emissions.

Carley Reynolds, a climate and energy analyst at Climate Analytics, told Climate Home energy emissions are low in Ethiopia with more than 95% of power generated from renewables, overwhelmingly hydropower. “The challenge will be to keep its power system clean… and avoid investing in fossil fuels” as electricity access increases, she said.

Under the plan, Ethiopia aims for 100% of households that aren’t connected to the grid to use off-grid renewable electricity for lighting by 2030 – up from 40% currently.

The post Ethiopia to shift from beef to chicken production under updated climate plan appeared first on Climate Home News.

In September, the government said it would aim to reach net zero emissions by 2050 — but the plan still allows coal beyond that date. 

To achieve its 2050 goal, president Cyril Ramaphosa set up a presidential climate change commission to advise the government on how to ensure a just transition away from coal and reduce its emissions. 

In its first public report, the commission recommended the government set a tougher target and limit its annual greenhouse gas emissions to 350-420 MtCO2 by 2030. This would deepen emissions cuts by 31% compared to South Africa’s 2015 pledge, which capped emissions at 614 MtCO2. 

Its recommendations are more ambitious than what the government is currently proposing. Under a draft 2030 climate plan, published in March, the government said it aimed to limit its annual emissions to 398-440 MtCO2 by 2030 – a 28% emissions cut compared to the 2015 target. 

The commission said there was “scope for considerably greater emission reductions” by accelerating energy efficiency measures, bringing forward the decommissioning and repurposing of coal-fired power stations as they become financially unviable and replacing them with low-carbon energy capacity.

It argued increased climate ambition could help unlock more financial support to help the country move away from coal.

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In a statement, Ramaphosa said he will consider the commission’s recommendations, which will inform a decision on stepping up the country’s climate ambition ahead of the Cop26 climate talks. 

Saliem Fakir, executive director for the Africa Climate Foundation, told Climate Home News, the new targets would make ongoing support for coal “untenable”. “If adopted it will be a major breakthrough,” he said. 

But three members of the 22-strong presidential commission, which includes environmentalists, trade unions and business groups, say the proposal doesn’t go far enough.

In a letter, seen by Climate Home News, they write: “What is needed is zero fossil fuels in electricity generation by at least 2040 (though 2035 would be preferred); and a zero fossil fuel economy by 2050. This will mean no new fossil fuel projects come on line or are considered.” 

The letter calls on the commission to support a more rapid decommissioning of coal plants, recognising that some coal assets will become stranded. It adds the government should cancel a pipeline of major gas projects, including the proposed 8400MW Nseleni floating gas power plant in the city Richards Bay and a 3000MW gas development in Coega, near Port Elizabeth.  

Plans for a 3,300MW coal-fired power station should also be scrapped, they said.  

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“The commission’s range is still not sufficient,” Melissa Fourie, one of the authors of the letter and the executive director of South Africa’s Centre for Environmental Rights, told Climate Home.

The letter argues for a significantly tougher climate target in line with what would be South Africa’s fair share to limit global heating to 1.5C: capping annual emissions to 274–352 MtCO2 by 2030. 

“The low-hanging fruit here is the electricity sector, where we could substantially decarbonise at minimal cost,” said Fourie. “As a first step, the government should abandon its plans for new fossil fuel (coal and gas) electricity capacity.” 

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The climate commission’s report found that South Africa will require “considerably higher levels of international financial support” to transition away from a coal-dependent energy system.

South Africa estimates it will need $8 billion a year from the international community by 2030 to finance its decarbonisation and adaptation efforts. 

State-owned utility Eskom, which operates most of the country’s coal-fired power plants, is asking for $10bn from global lenders to help its transition from coal to renewables. 

In 2020, Eskom’s coal plants generated 86% of the country’s electricity, making South Africa the most coal-reliant country among the G20 group of nations.   

Eskom is currently building two of the world’s largest coal plants, Medupi and Kusile, which are not scheduled to close until at least 2060. Yet, Eskom’s energy transition leader Mandy Rambharos recently told Reuters:  “I don’t think we can look at 2050 and still see fossil fuels in there to be honest.” 

The post South Africa’s climate advisers urge faster shift away from fossil fuels appeared first on Climate Home News.

It is a significant increase in ambition for the coal-reliant Asian economy but does not match the recently updated targets of allies Japan and the US.

During a speech to parliament on Wednesday, the leader of the Democratic Party Song Young-gil said, “We must present a national greenhouse gas reduction target of at least 40% and implement it within eight years.”

He said that South Korea’s current goal of slashing emissions by 24.4% by 2030 “is absolutely low compared to developed countries”.

The national climate plan is due to be finalised for submission to the UN ahead of Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow, UK this November.

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Campaigners said the proposed 2030 goal is not ambitious enough. According to Climate Analytics, South Korea should slash emissions at least 59% by 2030 as a fair contribution to the Paris Agreement.

“Considering that neighbouring Japan has announced [a national emissions target] of 46-50% below 2013 levels, Korea must do more in order to establish its climate leadership, especially as a candidate to host Cop28,” said Joojin Kim, managing director of South Korean campaign group Solutions For Our Climate.

Cop28 is the UN climate summit scheduled for 2023, when it is the turn of a country in the Asia-Pacific region to host.

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Coal remains a big problem for the country. Coal fired power generation accounts for 40% of total electricity output. South Korea has not set a date for ending coal power and has 7.2 GW of coal capacity under construction, according to Global Energy Monitor data.

According to Climate Analytics, South Korea must phase out coal power by 2029 if it is to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. Kim said the 2030 proposal would likely trigger new coal exit discussions.

In November, the country’s council on climate and air quality recommended that the government consider phasing out coal by 2040 or earlier. 

South Korea is investing in offshore wind and solar energy, but campaigners say growth is too slow. Renewables make up just 7% of the country’s electricity mix, the lowest share of any member of the International Energy Agency.

Renewables must increase seven-fold by 2030 and twenty-fold by 2050 to meet South Korea’s net zero goal, according to analysis by Solutions For Our Climate. 

Under the new proposal, renewables would need to make up at least 40% of total electricity generation by 2030, Kim said.

The post South Korea proposes cutting emissions 40% by 2030 appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Leaf coalition, which stands for Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest Finance, was launched at the US leaders’ climate summit on Thursday. The public-private initiative aims to catalyse investments for forest protection “at a scale not seen before”.

Nations, states and provinces committed to protecting their tropical forests will receive funding in exchange for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation against performance indicators. The coalition promised to involve indigenous people and local communities living in areas eligible for finance.

US presidential climate envoy John Kerry described the scheme as a “groundbreaking example of the scale and type of collaboration need to fight the climate crisis”.

Multinational companies including Amazon, Airbnb, Bayer, McKinsey, Nestlé and Unilever stand ready to provide finance to the scheme. All have committed to contribute to the initiative in addition to meeting science-based targets to cut emissions in their own operations.

Nathaniel Keohane, of the Environmental Defense Fund, said the coalition set “a high standard” for how companies can supplement their emissions cuts by investing in protecting tropical forests.

Describing this new model of forest financing as “a game-changer,” Keohane said the coalition could eventually “channel tens of billions of dollars per year into ensuring sustainable livelihoods for Indigenous peoples and forest communities… and protecting global forests”.

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In a statement, the coalition said it aimed to help forest nations move more rapidly towards ending deforestation and achieving their climate plans.

A 2017 study published in Nature Climate Change found that a quarter of countries’ planned emission reductions to 2030 relied on forests’ carbon sequestration potential. Yet forests account for an estimated 3% of funding earmarked to cutting emissions.

Forest nations as well as individual states and provinces interested in participating in the scheme have been asked to apply by 22 July, with the aim of finalising deals by the end of the year. Payments would be based on emissions reductions linked to reducing levels of deforestation or degradation between 2022 and 2026.

A spokesperson for the coalition told Climate Home News discussions are ongoing with about a dozen countries and provinces, with Costa Rica, Guyana and three Brazilian states having taken initial steps to enroll.

Before payments are made, an independent third party will verify results and emissions cuts using the UN-backed Redd+ Environmental Excellence Standard, known as Trees, which includes environmental and social safeguards.

Jurisdictions taking part will have to show deforestation has reduced across the whole of their territory to qualify for financing, the coalition said.

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Manish Bapna, interim president of the World Resources Institute, said the initiative offered “an important new approach that can help scale forest protection finance, without diluting emissions reductions elsewhere”.

She said its success will hinge on “the full and effective participation of indigenous and local communities, who have proven to be the most effective guardians of the forest”.

Around the world, tropical forests are under serious threat. Between 2019 and 2020, the loss of primary tropical forest increased by 12%.

Of that, 4.2 million hectares of humid tropical primary forests, which are an important source of carbon storage and biodiversity, were cleared – an area the size of the Netherlands.

Brazil was by far the biggest source of forest clearance, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia and Indonesia, according to data from the University of Maryland.

“Tropical forests are indispensable to fight climate change and biodiversity loss, and have received far less attention and finance than they deserve. The Leaf Coalition takes a first, crucial step to change that”, said Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg.

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Jo Blackman, head of forests policy and advocacy at Global Witness, said the initiative did not address the drivers of deforestation, including the supply chains of goods consumed in the US, the UK and Norway.

“If the UK, US, EU and other global leaders are serious about keeping the world’s forests standing and protecting the climate, they must commit to robust legislation that holds their own businesses to account, including banks and investors, and ensure that their supply chains and financing are deforestation free,” she said.

Global Witness research found that 300 banks and investors had backed six agribusiness companies driving some of the worst forest clearance in the Amazon, the Congo Basin and New Guinea in the tune of $44bn between 2013 and 2019.

The post US, UK and Norway launch $1bn initiative to protect tropical forests appeared first on Climate Home News.

“Good ideas and good intentions aren’t good enough, we need to ensure that financing will be there to meet the moment on climate change,” the US president said at leaders’ climate summit he convened on Earth Day.

The increase in finance is set against the average climate finance delivered during Barack Obama’s second term, 2013-16. While no dollar figure is given in the plan, administration official Leonardo Martinez-Diaz told Climate Home News the baseline was around $2.8 billion, with $500 million of that going on adaptation. Adding in contributions to multilateral development banks and mobilised private finance, the total could reach around $15 billion a year, he said.

Joe Thwaites, of the World resources Institute, said the climate finance plan was “not particularly ambitious” after four years of US absence, during which time many other major donor countries doubled their climate finance pledges.

“The US has made an important start, but must do much more if it wants to become a leader on climate finance. Provision of finance to vulnerable countries is a central pillar of the Paris Agreement, and such investments are key to building credibility and influence to unlock more ambitious climate action from other countries, delivering benefits at home and abroad,” he said.

Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at ActionAid USA, described the numbers as “very low” and far cry from the $800 billion this decade campaigners say would be a fair contribution from the US.

The finance package made no mention of replenishing the Green Climate Fund, the UN’s flagship climate finance initiative, which has been hit by whistleblower complaints of a “toxic” workplace and political interference. However, it affirmed a commitment to end public finance investment in support for “carbon-intensive fossil-fuel based energy projects”.

As it happened: US, Japan, Canada pledged deeper emissions cuts at Biden summit

At home, Biden pledged to cut emissions 50-52% by 2030, compared with 2005, in a heavily trailed target to restore US action after four lost years under Donald Trump.

“The signs are unmistakable. The science is undeniable but the cost of inaction keeps mounting and the United States isn’t waiting,” Biden said, urging countries to get on a path consistent with halting global heating to 1.5C.

The US’ 2030 climate goal is a significant step up in ambition and will close the global emissions gap by 5-10% by 2030, according to Climate Action Tracker.

However, it fails to put the US on track to meeting the 1.5C goal which would require emissions cuts of 57-70%, analysts say.

Biden had asked 40 world leaders from some of the largest emitting and most vulnerable nations to set out immediate climate action to curb emissions in the next 10 years.

While there were some new pledges, the summit failed to go beyond incremental increases in ambition by major emitters.

Hopes for a “50% club” of nations committing to halve their emissions fell flat. Japan pledged to reduce emissions 46% by 2030 compared with 2013 levels and did not announce an end to overseas coal financing, as some expected.

Prime minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would cut emissions 40-45% between 2005 and 2030 – a far cry from campaigners’ call for a 60% emissions cuts.

South Korean president Moon Jae-in said he would announce an improved 2030 goal later this year, meanwhile promising to end the country’s significant investment in coal power internationally.

Very disappointed in Canada’s weak target of only 40-45%. They should do better as the 10th largest emitting country in the world!

— Jake Schmidt – NRDC (@jschmidtnrdc) April 22, 2021

President Xi Jinping said China would peak its coal consumption by 2025 and gradually reduce its coal reliance during the country’s next five-year economic planning cycle.

“Action on coal has never been explicitly linked to China’s climate ambition. Now President Xi is saying, ‘hey coal, this means you too!’,” said David Vance Wagner, vice president of Energy Foundation China and a former US official who led US-China dialogue on climate change under Barack Obama.

But Xi did not announce any increase in the ambition of China’s targets to peak emissions in 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

His statement left room for increasing coal consumption over the next five years, said Byford Tsang, who leads think tank E3G’s China work, and brings little clarity to the policies Beijing will put in place to meet its emissions goals.

China is projected to account for more than 50% of global growth in coal demand this year, according to the International Energy Agency. This has been driven by a coal-fired Covid recovery across some of the country’s provinces.

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Analyst say that to align policy with its long-term carbon neutrality goal, China needs to immediately stop building new coal-fired power plants and shut 364 gigawatts of coal capacity by 2030 – down from an estimated 1,095GW currently.

Li Shuo, senior climate and energy officer at Greenpeace East Asia, told Climate Home News “more ambitious actions” were needed from Beijing.

“The domestic conditions for faster emission reduction is becoming mature. It is in China’s self-interest to announce and implement further plans ahead of Cop26,” he said.

South Korea’s commitment to end overseas financing for coal-fired power plants will put pressure on Beijing and Tokyo to follow suit.

Between 2016 and 2018, China was the largest provider of public finance for fossil fuels overseas, while Japan spent an estimated $4.2bn a year on supporting coal projects abroad.

Large developing nations including Indonesia, South Africa and Bangladesh said richer nations needed to commit more climate finance for them to accelerate emissions cuts.

Bangladesh’s prime minister Sheikh Hasina said the country was already spending about $5 billion, or 2.5% of its GDP, every year on coping with the impacts of the climate crisis.

“Developing countries often suffer the most devastating impact of climate change. Consequently, developed economies have a responsibility to support developing economies, to support them to mitigate and adapt to climate change,” said South African president Cyril Ramaphosa.

The post US pledges to double international climate finance at Earth Day summit appeared first on Climate Home News.

The government launched a consultation on its updated climate plan to run until the end of May, with a view to submit a final document to the UN ahead of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow, UK, in November.

Under the draft plan, South Africa will limit its annual greenhouse gas emissions to 398-440 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030. This cuts emissions 28% compared with its 2015 pledge, which capped annual emissions at 614 MtCO2.

It relies on “a very ambitious power sector investment plan” and the implementation of a green transport strategy, energy efficiency programmes and a carbon tax to meet the goal.

“We are not putting up excuses not to do things because there’s Covid-19 pandemic,” Gwede Mantashe, minister of mineral resources and energy, told a summit on climate and development hosted by the UK last week.

Describing the energy transition as “a journey”, Mantasha said: “It is not going to be the stroke of a pen [that] switches off coal power stations and then moves to renewables.”

India calls out rich nations for setting net zero goals over robust short-term targets

Deborah Ramalope, an analyst at Climate Analytics and a former member of the South African delegation to UN climate talks, said the draft plan was “much stronger” than its 2015 commitments but left room for greater ambition.

It is “still not aligned with the Paris Agreement temperature goal” of limiting heating to 1.5C by the end of the century, she told Climate Home News.

Wanjira Mathai, regional director for Africa at the World Resources Institute, applauded the proposed target which would put the country’s efforts in line with limiting temperature to 2C, according to benchmarks by Climate Action Tracker.

She welcomed the inclusion of policies to cope with intensifying climate impacts such as early warning systems, climate-resilient development planning, improved governance, and support for research.

South Africa estimates it will need $8 billion a year from the international community by 2030 to finance its decarbonisation and adaptation efforts – more than three times what it received in recent years. Of the climate finance it accessed in 2018-19, 89% was in loans.

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South Africa’s tighter target was made possible by lower-than-expected greenhouse gas emissions over the past 10 years and a drop in emission intensity, according to the government document.

Saliem Fakir, South-Africa based executive director for the Africa Climate Foundation, said this can be explained through a growth of the service sector and the decline of carbon-intensive heavy-industries.

A sharp rise in electricity tariffs had increased the cost burden on companies and spurred improvements in energy efficiency, he said.

The improved climate plan is “not the result of true ambition,” Fakir told Climate Home News, but rather the side effect of an economic shift towards services.

“This has got nothing to do with an active strategy to bring emissions down. Emissions are still driven by coal,” he added.

State-owned utility Eskom’s coal plants generated 86% of the country’s electricity in 2020, making South Africa the most coal-reliant among G20 economies.

The updated climate plan identifies the electricity sector as a decarbonisation priority for the next decade, while ensuring communities dependent on coal for their livelihoods are guaranteed economic opportunities.

South Africa aims to reach net zero emissions in 2050 – while still burning coal

Campaigners and analysts say the country could decarbonise faster, but is held back by an arbitrary cap on renewable energy deployment. Under its 2019 electricity supply strategy, the government allows for another 1,500MW of coal power capacity to be installed this decade, while restricting solar installations to 1,000MW a year and wind to 1,600MW.

“That is our Achilles heel of climate ambition,” Alex Lenferna, secretary of the Climate Justice Coalition, a network of civil society groups in South Africa, told Climate Home News. “It’s also pretty hard for South Africa to secure green finance when we’re planning on building more coal.”

Hartmut Winkler, of the University of Johannesburg, told Climate Home News there was “no need for a renewable cap” which was creating an artificial barrier to decarbonisation.

“If there was a very clear signal that this country was going to push renewables, there would be absolutely no lack of interests from investors,” he said.

Fakir said the government has sought to keep the coal sector on side with a compromise that still allows for a significant amount of coal in the power mix.

While the government has approved a long-term vision to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the plan would still allow the country to burn coal with no exit date yet agreed.

“There is a lot of politics going on in the coal sector and vested interests. The term ‘coal mafia’ is used quite often to describe opaque purchasing contracts,” Winkler added.

Meanwhile, a fifth procurement round for 1,600 MW of onshore wind and 1,000 MW of solar energy was announced earlier this month – two years later than planned.

As a result of delayed renewable deployment and ageing coal power stations increasingly taken offline for maintenance, South Africa is experiencing periodic power cuts that Eskom says could last for the next five years.

The post South Africa sets out to tighten 2030 emissions target appeared first on Climate Home News.

The small Middle Eastern country is battling its worst economic crisis for decades, which has pushed over half its population into poverty.

This week, Lebanon announced in a submission to the UN that it aims to cut carbon emissions by 20%, up from 15%, by 2030, compared to business-as-usual projections. The country raised its conditional emissions reduction target, which is dependent on foreign financing, by just one percentage point, to 31%.

“Despite its hardships, Lebanon remains committed to fighting the climate crisis,” Lebanon’s submission says. 

Green Climate Fund whistleblowers urge US to take its money elsewhere – until ‘toxic’ workplace is fixed

The government said it plans to boost sustainable economic growth by creating jobs in the renewable sector, rolling out welfare programmes and protecting natural resources. 

By 2030, Lebanon aims to generate 18% of its electricity and 11% of its heating  from renewable sources, up from a previous combined target of 15%. 

“Lebanon will need international support to successfully overcome the economic downturn, and to sustainably rebuild its economy and the resilience of its society,” the government said in its submission.

Lebanon will prioritise adaptation measures, such as combating desertification and helping farmers increase their resilience to climate impacts, over the next decade, the government added. The arid country is vulnerable to drought and rising sea levels.

“Lebanon views climate change as a threat multiplier to its current struggles. Adverse climate impacts will add an additional layer of challenges and set back any improvement in the Lebanese socio-economic status,” Mary Awad, who works in climate policy at the United Nations Development Programme, told Climate Home News. 

UN climate chief Patricia Espinosa and Cop26 president Alok Sharma both welcomed Lebanon’s announcement on Twitter. 

I welcome Lebanon’s submission of its updated NDC, which is showing enhanced efforts in both mitigation and adaptation.

Only through efforts towards ambition by all, we will be able to achieve the goals of the #ParisAgreement.

— Patricia Espinosa C. (@PEspinosaC) March 16, 2021

Lebanon’s climate plan was published amid mounting public anger at the political and economic turmoil. Protesters took to the streets in Beirut this week, blocking roads and burning tyres as the Lebanese currency crashed to a tenth of what it was worth at the start of the economic crisis in late 2019.

The country has been grappling with the disintegration of Syria for over a decade, taking in over 1.5 million Syrian refugees since 2011.  It has one of the highest coronavirus infection rates in the region. 

Lebanon’s troubles deepened last summer when a deadly explosion at Beirut’s port devastated huge swathes of the city and left 300,000 people homeless. 

The Lebanese government resigned following the blast but a deadlock between former president Michael Aoun and his designated successor Saad al-Hariri has delayed the formation of a new cabinet.

The country is embroiled in a long-standing maritime border dispute with neighbouring Israel over a 330-square-mile area of ocean which has abundant reserves of methane gas. Access to the offshore gas would be a major boon for Lebanon’s economy but a resolution to the dispute has not been reached.

“Lebanon will have to undergo extensive institutional, administrative, financial and political reforms in order for the  implementation [of its climate plan] to be swift, effective and impactful,” said Awad.

The post Lebanon increases climate goal despite political and economic turmoil appeared first on Climate Home News.

South Sudanese officials hope the world’s newest country can become carbon neutral by 2030, with a rollout of renewable energy and mass tree planting. But aid cuts, a slump in oil revenue and the legacy of civil war pose major hurdles to decarbonisation.

A draft plan seen by Climate Home News, which government aims to submit to the UN in early summer, hinges on international support. Of the estimated $100 billion cost by 2030, 90% would need to come from external sources.

“We are trying to be carbon neutral by 2030. If we have the funds, we will be able to make it happen. If the funds are not there, we will be looking at 2050,” South Sudan’s lead climate negotiator Joseph Bartel told Climate Home News from sweltering Juba, where temperature had risen above 40C.

“This country is really suffering from the impacts of climate change and we need to make sure that we are making our contribution to save our planet from this existential threat,” he said.

The draft plan shows quantifiable emissions reductions goals in seven sectors, including agriculture, transport, waste, energy and forestry, as well as emissions intensity targets for the oil industry. There is no explicit analysis of whether these add up to net zero emissions.

It includes developing nearly 3,000MW of hydropower projects, installing wind turbines, rolling out decentralised solar power and promoting biogas. In forestry, the plan is to plant 100 million trees over ten years, and sequester 45 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 by reducing deforestation.

To adapt to intensifying heat and rainfall extremes, there are proposals to develop drought- and flood-resilient seeds, promote wetland management and diversify livelihoods away from subsistence farming.

China makes no shift away from coal in five-year plan as it ‘crawls’ to carbon neutrality

The UK host to the critical Cop26 climate talks scheduled to take place in Glasgow, in November, is slashing overseas development assistance from 0.7% to 0.5% of its national income.

Leaked documents from the UK’s foreign and development office obtained by openDemocracy show cuts are being planned across some of Africa’s most fragile states and climate vulnerable nations.

In South Sudan, UK aid could fall by nearly 60%, dropping from £110 million ($152m) in 2020-21 to just £45m in 2021-22.

Among the UK’s ongoing projects in the country is a seven-year programme to provide humanitarian assistance and build resilience to shocks from conflicts, droughts and flooding.

Bartel described the reported decision as “depressing” and “unwise”. “The humanitarian situation is dire,” he said, warning the UK was sending “the wrong signal” ahead of the climate summit and he hoped the government would reconsider.

“This trend of cutting aid and not getting to the $100bn [by 2020 pledged by rich governments in 2009] show we are on a very slippery slope. If we are not careful, we will fail to tackle climate change in countries like ours,” Bartel said.

UN suspends climate work with Myanmar government following military coup

With oil exports providing up to 80% of government revenues, the collapse in oil price induced by the pandemic sent the economy into “tailspin” said Bartel. Many civil servants in the country haven’t been paid for months.

Following South Sudan’s independence in 2011, the nation of 11 million people entered a six- year civil war that killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced millions. It came to an official end when a peace agreement was signed in February 2020.

The nation is struggling to rebuild fragile political institutions. While a transitional coalition government was formed last year, parliament hasn’t been re-constituted since the peace deal was signed.

In a symptom of the instability, the country’s parliament ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017 but nobody sent the paperwork to the UN until last month.

South Sudan is among the most rapidly warming countries in the world, as average temperatures increased by 1-1.5C across large parts of the country in the last 60 years. It contributed 0.07% of global emissions in 2015.

Severe droughts followed by unpredictable and intense rainfall periodically destroy crops, in a country where the majority of the population is dependent on subsistence farming.

According to the World Food Programme, 60% of the population, or about seven million people are struggling to find enough food each day.

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In October 2020, floods displaced tens of thousands of people. Months later, 96,000 people are still living in camps and flooding is ongoing in the worst-affected areas, Payai John, climate change director in South Sudan’s government, told Climate Home.

Repeated flooding has heightened conflict in some parts of the country, where farmers and pastoralists are competing for shrinking land for grazing, he said.

A flooded displacement camp in Bor, Jonglei state, in eastern South Sudan. (Photo: UNMISS/Flickr)

“The priority should be adaptation, adaptation and adaptation,” Nhial Tiitmamer, of the Sudd Institut in Juba, told Climate Home. “The international community should pay more attention to the climate crisis in South Sudan.”

The government has identified 28 adaptation projects that would strengthen communities’ resilience but only three have secured funding from the Green Climate Fund and the Least Developed Countries Fund.

“We cannot increase ambition when the funding is being reduced,” said John. “How will the UK Cop26 presidency mobilise funding when it is cutting its own?”

A spokesperson for the UK government said: “The seismic impact of the pandemic on the UK economy has forced us to take tough but necessary decisions, including temporarily reducing the overall amount we spend on aid. We are still working through what this means for individual programmes and decisions have not yet been made.”

The post South Sudan plans to raise climate ambition amid ‘dire’ humanitarian crisis appeared first on Climate Home News.

On Wednesday, the day after the assembly’s final verdict, members of parliament submitted more than 4,000 amendments to the government’s proposed climate and resilience law.

Mathilde Panot, of the left-wing party France Insoumise, told Climate Home News: “The ambition is extremely weak and doesn’t respond to the needs of our time… They made a mountain of it and in the end there is only a mouse.”

The bill creates the legal framework to implement just under half of the French climate assembly’s proposals. It seeks to accelerate France’s energy transition and is anticipated to be Emmanuel Macron’s government last major reform ahead of elections in 2022.

The climate assembly of 150 citizens was tasked to come up with measures to reduce the country’s emissions at least 40% by 2030 from 1990 levels “in a spirit of social justice”. It was created in the wake of the “yellow vest” protests that were sparked by a 2018 hike in fuel tax.

But those who took part in the novel democratic exercise, which concluded last month, have been left unimpressed by the government’s proposal to act on their recommendations.

In a detailed assessment of the climate bill, the assembly scored the text 3.3 out of 10 for reflecting their recommendations. Of the assembly’s 150 members, 123 took part in the vote.

Asked whether the bill will allow France to come close to reducing its emissions by 40% by 2030, compared with 1990, their response was even harsher: averaging just 2.5 out of 10. Nearly 60% of respondents described measures proposed by the governments as “unsatisfactory” to meet the climate goal.

UN suspends climate work with Myanmar government following military coup

Since the creation of the assembly in October 2019, France as part of the European Union agreed to deepen emissions cuts to 55% between 1990 and 2030. Campaigners say the proposed bill won’t be enough to meet the 40% goal let alone 55%.

This is a concern backed by the government’s official climate advisors. In its assessment, the high council for the climate found that the 21 proposals they rated would have “a potentially limited impact on the level of emissions” either because of being too narrow in scope or because their implementation will come too late.

It added that parliament would need to increase the ambition of the proposed measures.

Overall, the creation of the assembly was welcomed by participants, who scored a 6 for how useful it had been to address climate change and 8 for whether this model could improve French democracy.

The assembly’s severe judgment comes after some of its members accused president Macron of backsliding on his promise to legislate on key recommendations.

Macron committed in June last year to submit 146 of the assembly’s 149 propositions to the French parliament or to a referendum “without filter”.

Panot said the bill had “a democratic veneer” but did not respect the propositions made by the assembly, with every recommendation concerning forests excluded from the text for example.

Japan, US exposed as UN chief urges G7 to commit to 2030 coal exit

A spokesperson for Matthieu Orphelin, a former Macron supporter who co-founded a new centre-left and ecological political grouping, told Climate Home the number of amendments to the text was “huge” and proved that its ambition was “insufficient”. Orphelin himself submitted 88 amendments, including five recommendations made by the assembly that were left out in the bill.

He said pressure was mounting from progressive lawmakers and campaigners but expected the government “not to budge”.

Speaking to broadcaster France info on Tuesday, Barbara Pompili, minister of the ecological transition, said she knew members of the assembly wanted the bill to be more ambitious.

“We can have the highest ambition but if we can’t implement it, it’s useless,” she said.

Pompili said the assembly’s rating system had been “quite biased”, citing the fact some citizens scored the government with zero on every proposal while recommendations included in their entirety in the law averaged at 6. “I don’t know how we could ever get a 10.”

“I think some of the citizens have taken a political approach… many have seized the urgency to act. They are now voting on the urgency more than on the measures that they have themselves proposed,” she said.

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In an open letter to president Macron last month, 110 NGOs said the climate bill “did not add up” to the level of ambition required for France to meet its climate goals and urged the government to reconsider the assembly’s recommendations.

The Economic and Social Council, a consultative chamber that advises the government on new laws, said that claiming the bill is part of efforts to meet the 2050 long-term goal was “excessive”.

A special commission formed of a cross-party group of lawmakers have started to work on the proposed text and from Monday, the group is due to start assessing which amendments will be eligible for discussions.

Members of the commission have already shown disagreements over whether recommendations by the citizens’ assembly that weren’t included in the bill could be proposed as amendments, according to Le Monde.

The text is expected to be discussed in the plenary of the French national assembly on 29 March. With a majority in parliament, Macron’s party La Republique En Marche (LRM) and its centrist allies the MoDem, are expected to push the text through but revisions could be made along the way.

The government hopes the text can be presented to a vote before the end of the summer.

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With the first tranche of updated national climate targets in, global emissions are set to fall by less than 1% between 2010 and 2030. The IPCC says 45% cuts are needed to hold temperature rise to 1.5C this century. It is a huge gap and one that the “ratchet” mechanism of the Paris Agreement was supposed to progressively close.

While Joe Biden’s presidency of the US creates a more favourable ambience for raising ambition, it meets ambivalence in India, Australia and Brazil. Recent net zero converts China, South Korea and Japan have yet to level up their short-term action. Many vulnerable countries are too mired in debt to invest in greenery.

This November’s Cop26 has been trailed as the most critical UN climate summit since Paris, but it remains unclear what outcome to expect.

At a political level, it will take a lot of heavy lifting in the next few months to strengthen national climate plans – and creative leadership to make them add up to a meaningful moment in Glasgow.

At a technical level, a stalemate over whether to take interim negotiations online threatens to further delay resolution of contentious issues – notably on the design of international carbon markets.

At a practical level, we have not been told how many delegates will be accredited for the summit, nor who takes priority if numbers are restricted.

What is clear is the credibility of the whole UN climate process is at stake. After 30 years of talking, there has to be more to show for it than this.

This week’s stories…

• China, US urged to step up as UN warns world ‘very far’ from meeting climate goals
• Bangladesh scraps nine coal power plants as overseas finance dries up
• Fragile countries call for investment in rooftop solar to expand energy access
• “Science-based” corporate climate targets are no such thing, says former advisor
• Hit by hurricanes and Covid, more Central Americans go hungry and plan to migrate
• EU spent €440 million on failed gas projects since 2013, study finds
• Mauritius oil spill: questions mount over ship fuel safety

The post The stakes for Cop26 couldn’t be higher – Climate Weekly appeared first on Climate Home News.

Patricia Espinosa warned that the collective ambition of national plans by the end of 2020 was “very far” from putting the world on track to meet its Paris Agreement goals of limiting global heating to “well below 2C” and strive for 1.5C.

Her comments were based on analysis published by UN Climate Change on Friday of national climate plans submitted before 31 December 2020. Only 75 countries, including EU member states, met the deadline for updating their plans, accounting for about 30% of global emissions.

Their combined plans achieve less than 1% emissions reductions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, Espinosa said. “And that simply is not good enough”.

“The message is extremely clear,” she told reporters. “We are collectively wondering into a minefield, blindfolded. The next step would mean disaster.”

Espinosa urged major emitters to “step up” and commit to “much more radical” emissions reductions cuts this year. China, the US and India – the world’s top three emitting countries – have yet to reveal their plans.

“I call on all parties, even on those who have submitted already their new updated [climate plans], to look at how they can increase their ambition. If this task was already urgent, it is crucial now,” she said.

Bangladesh scraps nine coal power plants as overseas finance dries up

The report found that new commitments would shave off 2.8% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared with previous pledges.

The projected impact of these new plans is an emissions reduction of just 0.7% compared with 1990 and 0.5% from 2010 levels. In the shorter term, emissions would rise by 2% between 1990 and 2025.

Leading scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have said emissions should fall 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 to limit temperatures to 1.5C by the end of the century.

“This report confirms the shocking lack of urgency, and genuine action,” said Aubrey Webson, of Antigua and Barbuda, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States. “We are flirting dangerously with the 1.5C warming limit that the world agreed we need to stay within. It is small island developing states like ours that will pay the ultimate price if we do not.”

UN chief António Guterres described the report as “a red alert” for the planet and urged nations to match their long-term ambition with short-term action. Cop26 president designate Alok Sharma, of the UK, backed the call for major emitters to submit ambitious 2030 targets this year.

Despite the opportunity offered by the Covid-19 recovery to put climate action at the heart of stimulus packages, “many nations are sticking to their business as usual approach,” Espinosa said. “It is a rare moment that cannot be lost.”

Fragile countries call for investment in rooftop solar to expand energy access

While countries were expected to submit improved national contributions to meet the Paris goals – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – before the end of 2020, fewer than half did so. Many nations experienced delays due to the coronavirus pandemic.

In total, 113 countries are yet to submit updated climate plans.

Among large emitters, the EU, the UK and Argentina stepped up their climate ambition last year. And overall, the report points to an improvement in the quality of countries’ climate goals.

More countries are adopting absolute emissions reduction targets, with most climate plans covering all sectors of the economy.

But a number of big emitters have failed to improve their plans. Brazil and Mexico even backslid on their commitments, with emissions set to rise compared to their previous plans, according to Climate Action Tracker.

Its analysis found that Australia, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland and Vietnam have submitted plans that do not add up to deeper emissions cuts.  Japan and New Zealand did not improve on their plans either but both promised to increase ambition ahead of Cop26 this year.

Meanwhile Indonesia has said it would not strengthen its ambition this year.

“Science-based” corporate climate targets are no such thing, says former advisor

A host of new climate plans could be announced on the 22 April, when the US is hosting a leaders’ climate summit as it revives the Major Economies Forum, a group of 17 large emitters.

Joe Biden reiterated this week that the US would have an improved 2030 climate plan “ready in advance of the summit” and he is under pressure to ensure the US does its fair share. Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau also said he would announce increased ambition by the meeting, according to a White House readout.

China provided a glimpse of its updated climate plan during a climate summit in December. Climate Action Tracker said the proposals would result in a modest increase in ambition compared to current policies.

Despite international pressure, it remains unclear what India is preparing to bring to Cop26.

With new plans expected during the course of the year, UN Climate Change will publish an updated report ahead of Cop26. It is expected to compare countries’ collective level of ambition with scenarios for meeting the 2C and 1.5C temperature goals.

In the meantime, climate campaigners have said the situation was alarming. Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International, described it as “a nightmare” and urged governments to “come back with a better offer”.

“With their woefully weak climate targets big emitters like Japan, Australia and Brazil are weighing down overall global ambition when in fact they should be leading,” said Tasneem Essop, executive director of Climate Action Network.

The story was amended on 26/02/21 to reflect the fact that updated climate plans submitted by 31 December 2020 would reduce emissions by less than 1% by 2030 compared with 2010 levels. Not the combined climate plans of all countries. 

The post China, US urged to step up as UN warns world ‘very far’ from meeting climate goals appeared first on Climate Home News.

Six months ago, the idea of carbon neutrality was hardly on the agenda in India. But a number of major international climate announcements have driven net zero to the forefront.

Analysts say the issue is starting to be discussed in climate circles since China’s 2060 carbon neutrality pledge, Joe Biden’s election victory in the US and the UK’s diplomatic push to ramp up climate ambition ahead of Cop26.

In private, analysts said they wouldn’t be surprised if the government set a carbon neutrality goal within the course of the year, with any decision expected to come directly from the top. But in many ways, the country is not ready to set a hard deadline to end its contribution to climate change.

“There is a lot of chattering about net zero but that discussion is not anchored in policy development and policy analysis,” Thomas Spencer, who works on the decarbonisation of the Indian power sector at The Energy and Resources Institute in Mumbai, told Climate Home News.

While some detailed modelling work, largely focused on sectorial analysis, is being carried out by research groups and academics, it is not part of a detailed cross-ministerial process.

DR Congo campaigners take minister to court over illegal logging rights claims

In a report published earlier this month, the International Energy Agency suggested India could get on a path to net zero emissions by the mid-2060s.

“How meaningful is that? That is as far away from the present as 1975 was in the past – a time of pre-internet and pre-oil shocks,” said Navroz Dubash, professor at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research.

“The diplomatic political gain [of setting a net zero goal] is greater than the domestic cost but it would be a shame if that’s all [the target] does,” Dubash told Climate Home News.

“We have absolutely no idea if setting a net zero goal will dampen development prospects,” he said, citing the lack of domestic studies on the issue. In a blog post, he warned that an unplanned target could “derail a carefully built momentum toward low-carbon focused development actions”.

Sharma’s visit to India this week is part of the UK’s diplomatic push for countries to improve their 2030 climate goals ahead of the Cop26 climate talks in November and aim for net zero greenhouse gas emissions towards the middle of the century.

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During a meeting with prime minister Narendra Modi, Sharma outlined the UK’s 2050 net zero goal and said its tougher 2030 target “sent a clear message to the world” of the ambition needed, according to a readout of the meeting.

“I firmly believe that powerful action from India will be a catalyst for change, encouraging others to be more ambitious in their approaches to protecting both people and planet,” Sharma said in a statement before leaving the country.

US presidential climate envoy John Kerry told an Indian conference earlier this month that striving towards carbon neutrality by mid-century was “a critical commitment at this point in time”.

Pleased to meet with COP26 President-designate @AlokSharma_RDG today. We discussed India-UK cooperation on climate change agenda and COP26.
My best wishes to UK for successful organisation of the climate summit. pic.twitter.com/ZLACrYtR5n

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) February 16, 2021

 

Sharma’s visit coincided with the arrest of 22-year-old climate activist Disha Ravi, who was charged with sedition and accused of editing a toolkit shared by Greta Thunberg on how to support the Indian farmers’ protests. She was arrested in her home in Bangalore and flown to Delhi, where she remains in police custody.

In 2019, India committed to deliver 450GW of renewable energy by 2030 – a target Modi says India is on track to exceed.

According to Climate Action Tracker, India could become a global climate leader if it enhances its 2030 target, abandons plans to build new coal power plants and phases out all coal production by 2040.

But Delhi has so far resisted setting a tougher 2030 climate goal. Speaking at the climate ambition summit in December, Modi reminded world leaders of India’s small historic contribution to global carbon emissions.

“In 2047, India will celebrate a hundred years as a modern, independent nation,” he said, promising the country would “not only meet its own target but will also exceed your expectations”.

Will India set a goal of achieving #netzero by 2047?

I think they could and several business leaders that were part of this #WSDS21 seemed to agree.

Thanks to @teriin for inviting me to speak at the World Sustainable Development Summit.@mendiluce #RaceToZero pic.twitter.com/JeCa8hDh5k

— Nigel Topping (@topnigel) February 12, 2021

“There is no doubt that in the domestic policy debate there is a broad understanding that India can go much further than it has committed to do,” Spencer said.

But India must overcome major hurdles in its transition to net zero, analysts say. While the country could easily decarbonise half of its power supply network through renewables and electrify passenger transport, addressing carbon-intensive sectors such as steel and cement, where Indian per capita consumption is forecast to grow significantly, will be much more difficult, Spencer said.

“Until humanity can collectively invest in these hard-to-abate decarbonisation challenges, there is no way that India can commit by itself to a net zero target given its expected demand growth in these sectors,” he told Climate Home.

Instead, a net zero goal should be framed as an aspiration and used to drive a conversation on the domestic actions and international innovation and support needed to turn the goal into reality, he said.

For Dubash, India pursuing a carbon neutrality goal would require building the institutional capacity to hold the government accountable to its pledge and oversee its implementation. “This is not a small ask,” he said.

The post Under diplomatic pressure, India considers net zero – but major hurdles remain appeared first on Climate Home News.

The report by the Climate Change Commission said the country was set to miss its long-term goal by 6.3 million tonnes of CO2, roughly the emissions of Paraguay or 13% of New Zealand’s current emissions.

The commission said New Zealand’s 2030 target of reducing its net emissions by 30% from 2005 levels was “not compatible with global efforts” to limit global warming to 1.5C – the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement.

To align with a 1.5C pathway, the report said New Zealand should cut emissions by “much more than 35%”. The commission chair Rod Carr said the advisers will now consult New Zealanders on “whether they think ‘much more than 35%’ is 38% or 42%”.

According to Climate Action Tracker, New Zealand should reduce emissions by at least 44% between 2005 and 2030 to do its fair share to keep the world within 1.5C of warming. To be considered a “role model”, it should aim for at least 70% of emissions cuts. These figures do not include land use, land use change and forestry.

A recent Oxfam report said that, to do its fair share, New Zealand should reduce emissions between 67% and 102% by 2030 – depending on the methodology used.

US plans to end fossil fuel finance overseas, threatens billions in support for oil and gas

Prime minister Jacinda Ardern, who commissioned the report, said the government would revise its 2030 target. The government’s response is expected in November 2021, ahead of Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow, UK.

#breaking The @ClimateCommNZ draft advice to Govt says:
Emission targets are achievable
Meeting them will make our communities cleaner & healthier
We have the tech, just need to get it in place
We are not on track, but can be if we act now
Next 5 yrs are crucial

— James Shaw (@jamespeshaw) January 31, 2021

Professor Bronwyn Hayward, who researches environmental policy at the University of Canterbury, called for urgency, tweeting: “We’ve had 30 (nearer 40) years of climate inaction by successive governments-so I’m underwhelmed to hear there will be a year for government to respond to #nzpol climate report-then presumably a year to implement action on the ground- let’s move faster!”

Nearly half of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture, according to government data, with methane from livestock accounting for almost three quarters of the sector’s emissions.

To align with a 1.5C pathway, agricultural methane emissions would need to be cut by 11-30% by 2030 and 24-47% by 2050, the commission said. It found this could be achieved by adopting “farm management practices” that reduce the amount of animal feed being used.

Technological solutions such as selective breeding and the use of chemical compounds in feed to inhibit cattle’s methane production could help make “significant contributions to global emissions reductions,” the report said.

Greenpeace New Zealand campaigner Steve Abell said that although he welcomed much of the report, the section on dairy “seems more anxious about maintaining the status quo than biting the bullet in the existential crisis of our time”.

“It effectively says ‘we can only save the planet so long as we don’t have to produce one kilo less milk or meat by 2035’. That ain’t transformation,” he said.

Cyclone Eloise shatters Mozambique’s progress to recover from 2019 storms

The report called for the food processing sector to stop using coal boilers by 2037 and to use biofuel or biomass instead. The dairy industry currently burns coal to dry milk into powder, where heat from biomass and electricity could be used instead.

Cindy Baxter, of Coal Action Network Aotearoa, said the 2037 deadline “should be brought forward”. “The world needs to get out of coal,” she said.

Baxter welcomed the commission’s recommendation that the 500 MW gas and coal-fired Huntly power station should shut down “in the 2020s”.

She added all coal mining in New Zealand should end by 2027 and the proposed expansion of the Canterbury Coal mine outside Christchurch, which produces low sulphur coal for the dairy industry, should be blocked.

The commission urged the government to set emissions reductions goals that it can meet with domestic action. Buying emissions reductions achieved overseas through carbon markets should only be used as a “last resort” in response to an unforeseen disaster, it said. For example, if a fire destroyed the country’s power lines, forcing it to turn back to fossil fuels temporarily.

The report said that while forests “have a role to play” the country “can’t plant our way out of climate change”. Instead, it must focus on reducing emissions at the source.

This article was amended to clarify that Huntly uses both gas and coal rather than just coal.

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With more than half of its territory covered by tropical forests, Colombia has made halting deforestation and restoring nearly one million hectares of forested ecosystems a pillar of its plan to cut emissions 51% from a business-as-usual baseline by 2030.

The new and tougher target announced at the end of 2020 and in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic is a significant hike from Colombia’s previous 20% target.

It was set following extensive intra-governmental and public consultation and aims to establish carbon budgets from 2023 and put the country on a path to carbon neutrality by 2050 .

“In order to comply with those commitments, we definitely need to protect the Amazon and fight deforestation,” Colombian president Iván Duque Márquez told Reuters Next conference this week, calling for a nature-based approach to addressing climate change.

But the task at hand is enormous. Deforestation accounts for around a quarter of Colombia’s total emissions. The 2016 peace agreement which ended more than 50 years of civil war between the government and the rebel group Farc led to a spike in forest clearance.

Poor and island states highlight toll of climate disasters in submissions to UN

During the conflict, the Farc operated strict deforestation control to conceal guerilla movements in the forest and preserve their revenue streams from illegal mines and coca plantations, used to make cocaine.

After the group disarmed, illegal land grabbing for cattle ranching, timber or coca production surged in areas that are difficult to police.

Cielo Gomez grows coffee on her land in southeast of Nariño territory, Colombia. The land was restituted to her family by the government after being illegally occupied during the civil war (Photo: UN Women/Flickr)

Data from Colombia’s Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam), which monitors deforestation in the country, shows deforestation soared to its highest level in 2017 with 219,552 hectares of forest cleared – up from just under 124,000 in 2015.

“What is happening on the ground is not compatible with what Colombia has just committed to,” Estefania Ardila, country engagement specialist for Latin America at the NDC Partnership, which supports developing countries willing to raise their climate ambition, told Climate Home News.

“It’s ambitious. And it’s going to be tremendously difficult to achieve,” she said, describing development challenges with high levels of inequality and unemployment.

To design its climate goals, the government calculated the carbon budget it has to 2030 to stay on a pathway to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

“That requires that after 2030, we have no net deforestation,” Ivan Valencia, former coordinator of Colombia’s low-carbon strategy who led the mitigation side of the NDC update, now an independent consultant, told Climate Home.

South Korea 2050 net zero pledge spurs renewables investment

As a signatory to the New York Declaration on Forests, Colombia committed to halving natural forest loss in 2020 and net zero deforestation by 2030, which means any forest clearance needs to be offset by replanting native trees.

By 2019 deforestation levels had dropped to less than 160,000 hectares of land cleared that year. But 2020 goals were missed, as forest clearance nearly doubled in the first three months of the year compared with the same period in 2019.

To save carbon-rich forests and create jobs to reboot the economy from the pandemic, Colombia is working to provide alternative livelihoods for people who live in and around forests.

In its submission of its climate plan to the UN, measures to tackle deforestation account for a third of Colombia’s efforts to meet its 2030 goal. Together with ecosystems restoration, actions related to nature represent more than half of the country’s carbon-cutting effort.

“Unless Colombia complies with its deforestation target and pathway to achieve it, they will not be able to meet their [climate goal] and would have to make a gigantic effort in other sectors to compensate,” said Carolina Jaramillo, Colombia country representative for the Global Green Growth Institute.

Avoiding further deforestation and preserving forest ecosystems provides Colombia with some of the cheapest ways to reduce its emissions, Jaramillo told Climate Home.

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To achieve its goal, Colombia is planning to restore more than 960,000 hectares of land by 2030, plant 180 million trees by 2022 and reduce deforestation by 50,000 hectare per year from a business as usual baseline by 2030.

Additional emissions reductions from reduced deforestation could be sold as credits under the carbon market mechanism established by the Paris Agreement and help to finance other carbon-cutting measures, the plan states.

Financial incentives are being created for farmers to restore ecosystems that store more carbon by raising livestock more efficiently so they need less grazing land, for example.

Agroforestry initiatives for coffee and cocoa production and the development of sustainable forest plantation for timber are among others.

La Chorrera indigenous community and WWF-Colombia, conduct an ecosystem service assessment of the forest surrounding in the Predio Putumayo Indigenous Reserve to help protect it (Photo:
Luis Barreto / WWF-UK)

A recent government strategy for deforestation control supports increasing production of non-timber products, such as natural rubber, fruits and seeds, to protect forests while diversifying the country’s income stream away from a dependence on oil exports and mining revenues.

The development of a bio-economy, which adds value to natural products for medicinal or cosmetic purposes for example, could contribute up to 10% to Colombia’s GDP by 2030 up from less than 1% currently, Jaramillo said.

France and UK lead push for climate finance to restore nature

“How are we going to finance all this in the Covid context? That remains a big challenge,” said Valencia, adding that not all measures had guaranteed funding, leaving a role for the private sector.

And the cost of addressing deforestation will be “difficult to meet” without international cooperation.

In recent years, Norway, Germany and the UK have been supporting Colombia’s efforts to end deforestation through a payment-by-results scheme, under which it received $85 million since 2015. The partnership was renewed in 2019 with a commitment from European countries for an additional $366m to be paid by 2025 for achieving deforestation reduction targets and to implement policies.

“We need to call the whole world to protect that lung of humanity,” Duque said this week about the Amazon, calling for global cooperation in findings ways to finance forest protection through carbon credits and private sector involvement.

While the focus has been put on preserving and restoring Colombia’s forests, campaigners have accused the government of being inconsistent when it comes to its energy policy.

Green growth champion: Focus on jobs helps poorer nations raise climate ambition

President Duque promised a recovery package to Covid-19 that focuses on the energy transition, clean growth and environmental protection – but measures include ‘greening’ the fossil fuel industry with no plans for its managed phase-out.

So far, the country has spent $374million on supporting fossil fuels and just $4.4million on clean energy as part of its recovery, according to the Energy Policy Tracker.

This includes measures to reduce fugitive emissions in the oil sector and improve energy efficiency in refineries. Reeling from a fall in global oil prices, Colombia is turning its attention to fracking to plug a revenue shortfall. The labour ministry has been tasked to present a transition strategy for workers in fossil fuel sectors by 2023.

Santiago Aldana, a climate campaigner based in Bogotá and member of the advocacy group Climalab, welcomed his government’s ambition on cutting emissions, while improving livelihoods and preserving ecosystems.

But he warned the recovery package had exposed “inconsistencies” between the economic strategy and Colombia’s climate ambition, with fracking likely to further increase the country’s emissions.

“Climate action touches upon the most sensitive aspects of the country such as social inequality, poverty and violence,” Aldana told Climate Home. And to achieve its goal, the government will need to continue to engage with civil society to ensure social and climate justice, he said.

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While rich countries primarily focus on carbon-cutting measures in their national contributions to the Paris Agreement, poor nations set out their plans to bolster climate adaptation and deal with economic and other losses and damages associated with global warming.

In climate plans filed ahead of the UN deadline on 31 December 2020, several countries stressed the mounting costs they face from severe climate impacts. Emissions cuts and adaptation efforts are not enough to prevent climate change from destroying homes and livelihoods in their countries.

The Maldives’ environment minister, Hussain Rasheed Hassan, told Climate Home that the low-lying island nation “will be lost to the world” if sea levels rise faster than coastal defences. 

“We believe that we must be compensated for impacts caused by climate change. We are not responsible. Our total emissions are 0.003% [of the global total],” Hassan said, adding that the country needs an estimated $8.8 billion to ensure coastal protection for its 185 inhabited islands. 

The Maldives plans to establish climate risk insurance mechanisms to build resilience to climate loss and damage, the island state outlined in its updated national contribution. 

“We need to develop the financing capacity so that any shocks we have to endure in future can be mitigated. Our economy and life is tied to the oceans,” Hassan said. 

France and UK lead push for climate finance to restore nature

There has been a “staggering” rise in climate disasters over the past 20 years, which have led to global losses of $2.97 trillion, according to the UN. 

For countries vulnerable to climate change, loss and damage is a key issue which they argue should feature high on the agenda at the Cop26 summit in November. Rich countries, however, have long resisted putting any money behind it.

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism was set up to address loss and damage, but with no clear mandate to mobilise financial support. In 2015 countries agreed that “loss and damage” references in the Paris Agreement did not provide a basis for liability or compensation. 

“The key issue that remains is the relationship between loss and damage and climate finance,” Spencer Thomas, who helped draw up Grenada’s national contribution, told Climate Home News. 

Grenada’s updated climate plan includes a specific pledge to address loss and damage. “This will include strengthening resilience to respond to impacts beyond the limits of adaptation and addressing human mobility and settlements,” the plan states. 

The small island nation is already experiencing severe climate impacts, Thomas said. “We see a decline in the productivity of our coral reefs because of heavy rains and pollution. Hurricanes have destroyed our forests. How do we prepare our economies for this?”

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Under the Warsaw mechanism, loss and damage is defined as a subcategory to adaptation, rather than as an issue in its own right. As a result, developing countries say that the issue has not received the recognition and finance it deserves. 

“Small island states are clamouring for ease of access [to funding] and that mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage are equally represented in the climate finance landscape,” Thomas said.

One obstacle is a lack of comparable data on the scale of climate damages, said Hassan. “We have got to develop international standards and measurement mechanisms so that loss and damage can be assessed in a more scientific manner. The Warsaw International Mechanism is not capable of dealing with this.”

Nepal also placed a strong emphasis on loss and damage in its updated submission to the UN. The country plans to establish a national strategy on loss and damage by 2025 and allocate specific funds to this issue. 

Nepal, which has among the lowest carbon emissions per capita in the world, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Himalayan glaciers in Nepal have been losing almost half a metre of ice each year since the start of the century and floods and landslides are common.

“Even if emissions are rapidly reduced, the residual climate impacts remain because of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Loss and damage will be equally important to mitigation and adaptation – we cannot shy away from this,” Manjeet Dhakal, head of the least developed countries team at Climate Analytics, told Climate Home News. 

He said that Nepal’s loss and damage strategy would likely cover a wide range of sectors, including agriculture, tourism and hydropower production, which are all already suffering from climate disasters.

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That has become the mantra of the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), which is helping more than 20 countries develop new and improved national climate plans.

“Every country is focused on the recovery with jobs as the number one priority. The strongest argument [for climate action] is to focus on employment,” Frank Rijsberman, GGGI’s director general, told Climate Home News in an interview from its headquarters in Seoul, South Korea.

Every million dollars invested in clean energy creates nearly three times as many jobs as the equivalent in fossil fuel sectors, according to a widely cited study in the journal Economic Modelling.

“The fact that renewable energy provides more jobs than fossil fuel alternatives has become the biggest selling point for governments to focus on climate,” Rijsberman said. “If not for climate reasons, for recovery reasons.”

The argument has become particularly potent in emerging economies, with low-income countries also seeking to build climate and economic resilience through green jobs – allowing the Covid-19 recovery to underpin short and longer term climate action.

The GGGI is working with governments to develop ‘green new deal’ plans in more than 10 countries including Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Indonesia, Fiji, Vanuatu, and members of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States.

Majority of countries miss Paris Agreement deadline to increase climate ambition

Despite facing budget shortfalls, rising debt, and declining tax revenues, developing countries are expected to submit tougher 2030 emissions cuts, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCS), to the UN before Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow, UK, in November.

Only 70 countries representing about 28% of global emissions submitted their updated plans by the 2020 deadline. Among them, small and low-income countries such as Nepal, Fiji and Tonga – an “incredible” feat for these cash-strapped countries, said Rijsberman, at a time Fiji closed five embassies because of budget cuts.

A majority of emerging and low-income countries are yet to show how they are going to deepen their efforts to close the gap between current actions and what is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement – limit global temperatures “well below 2C” and strive for 1.5C – on which vulnerable nations depend for their survival.

For Rijsberman, green job creation is key to reconcile strengthened climate plans with an economic reboot.

At a global level, a study from the New Climate Economy found that taking ambitious climate action could generate more than 65 million new jobs by 2030 – the equivalent of the entire workforce of the UK and Egypt combined – compared to business as usual.

A GGGI report published in July found “enormous and immediate opportunities to promote a ‘green growth’ agenda in developing countries by including measures from the NDCs in stimulus packages”.

It noted that renewable sector jobs are frontloaded in manufacture, distribution and installation, providing an immediate stimulus. Compared to fossil fuels, there is less labour required in the long term for operation and maintenance.

2020 in review: Covid delayed climate action, but raised hopes of a green recovery

The partnership approach has borne fruit with Colombia, which at the end of 2020 committed to one of the biggest leaps in ambition of any country. Its new target is to cut emissions 51% by 2030 compared to business as usual – up from 20% previously.

The institute is working closely with the ministry of finance to diversify its revenues and reduce dependence on oil, gas and mining exports, said Rijsberman, paving a way for Colombia to meet its tougher climate goal.

It is also engaged with governments that show less interest in being climate leaders, such as Mexico and Indonesia, to encourage them to stick to their clean energy commitments.

Its analysis found that Mexico, for example, could generate 72% more jobs – or around 1.5 million direct and indirect jobs – by 2030 compared with business as usual if it met its existing renewable electricity target to reach 35% of clean energy by 2024 and 43% by 2030.

The Mexican government elected at the end of 2018 has embraced oil and gas, citing energy sovereignty, and merely reaffirmed existing climate targets. But its recovery plan would be an opportunity to mobilise the estimated $31 billion of investment needed to meet its renewable goal.

Indonesia could create 7.1 million jobs by 2030 by meeting its targets of achieving 23% of renewable energy in the power mix by 2025 and 31% by 2050, according to the GGGI. It has yet to submit an updated climate plan.

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While most of climate plans submitted after the Paris Agreement was struck in 2015 were solely focused on the energy and transport sectors, Rijsberman said many developing countries had worked to expand the scope of their emissions cuts to include agriculture and waste.

But “data gaps” in the tracking and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions remained a barrier for many developing countries, particularly those whose governments are interested in trading carbon credits on a new global market under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

The GGGI is helping to improve the monitoring, reporting and verification of emissions in 10 countries, including in Peru which recently signed the first bilateral carbon offsetting agreement under the Paris Agreement with Switzerland.

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The European Union’s 27 member states and the UK were among 70 countries to submit updated national contributions by 31 December 2020 – in line with a five-year cycle to close the gap between action and the pact’s overall goal to limit global heating “well below 2C” and strive for 1.5C.

Latin American countries including Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru met the end-of-year deadline and enhanced their ambition alongside nearly a dozen each of small island states and least developed countries.

Together, they account for 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the World Resources Institute’s tracker.

But none of the world’s other top polluters submitted tougher carbon-cutting plans to the UN, in a year defined by the coronavirus pandemic.

China was notably absent from a last-minute flurry of submissions, despite president Xi Jinping announcing incrementally stronger 2030 targets earlier in December and stressing his commitment to the Paris process.

2020 in review: Covid delayed climate action, but raised hopes of a green recovery

Niklas Höhne, founder of the NewClimate Institute, described the start of the new year as a “mixed picture” which looked “much better” than what was expected six month ago but left “a lot to be done in 2021”.

While many countries have failed to enhance their climate plan this year, a growing number of countries are subscribing to a mid-century net zero emissions goal, Höhne said – “a positive sign” that needs to translate into short-term action. “I am optimistic that we can get more ambition going in 2021,” he added.

China’s pledge in September to aim for carbon neutrality by 2060 was “the biggest announcement of the last 10 years of climate policy,” he told Climate Home.

But new 2030 measures to reduce the carbon intensity of its GDP by 65% from 2005 levels and increase the share of non-fossil fuel energy to 25% announced at a climate ambition summit last month fell short of aligning short-term action with Beijing’s long-term goal.

“China has an opportunity to do more than what it has laid out,” said David Waskow, international climate director at the World Resources Institute, adding that the country’s next five-year-plan expected in March could provide part of the basis for a more ambitious NDC.

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India, Canada, Indonesia, Iran and Saudi Arabia were among major emitters that didn’t submit an updated climate plan by the 2020 deadline.

Until president-elect Joe Biden brings the US back into the Paris accord, which he promised to do on his first day in office on 21 January, the US is not expected to present a climate plan.

Russia, Mexico, and Australia merely restated existing carbon-cutting commitments, with Canberra promising to publish a long-term decarbonisation strategy ahead of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow in November.

In its submission, Australia said it was on track to “meet and beat” its current 2030 goal “without relying on past overachievement” – suggesting it won’t use old Kyoto-era credits to meet its Paris commitment.

Brazil submitted a new plan at the start of December, which effectively weakened its 2030 emissions targets. It removed all reference to stopping illegal deforestation and restoring forests but included a goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Japan and New Zealand reaffirmed their previous targets, while promising to present enhanced plans before the Glasgow summit. South Korea translated its 2030 goal into absolute emissions cuts and pledged to enhance its ambition “at the earliest possible time before 2025”.

Pakistan signals coal power exit, in potential model for China’s belt and road

The climate ambition summit co-hosted by the UN, the UK and France on the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement provided a spur for both the UK and the EU to agree deeper emissions cuts of respectively at least 68% and 55% between 1990 and 2030.

This “should enable others to follow,” said Höhne, calling on richer nations like the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand to step up their ambition in the months ahead.

“The critical question is what can countries do to strengthen action by Cop26. It’s nearly a year to go to Cop26 and there should be high expectations that these countries come back with something better by then,” Waskow, told Climate Home. So far, they had “little to show,” he added.

The post Majority of countries miss Paris Agreement deadline to increase climate ambition appeared first on Climate Home News.

75 world leaders along with the European Union and Pope Francis presented tougher carbon-cutting plans and commitments to adapt to climate impacts in a six-hour marathon event.

In total, 45 countries presented strengthened 2030 climate plans, with Japan and South Korea promising more ambitious targets next year. 24 leaders promised to cut emissions to net zero and 20 nations announced stronger adaptation and resilience plans.

While progress was made, a lot more is expected from countries to close the gap between the current level of ambition and what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Support for vulnerable nations to scale up their ambition at a time when Covid-19 has left them deep in debt was largely absent.

“We are at the beginning of the road. It’s a road of hope at the moment but we need to translate hope into reality,” UN secretary general António Guterres told reporters.

AS IT HAPPENED: World leaders upgrade climate commitments at Paris anniversary summit

Argentina’s commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 means more than half of G20 countries would be covered by a net zero goal if president elect Joe Biden follows through on his own election promise next year.

Jamaica, Panama, the Maldives, Malawi, Nepal, and the Vatican joined a growing club of nations aiming to cut emissions to net zero in the first half of the century.

Guterres warned a number of the world’s largest emitters were yet to demonstrate they were ready to step up.

Australia, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Brazil were among big emitters absent from the summit – failing to meet the ambition benchmark to participate.

China fell short of presenting a 2030 climate plan that reflects its long-term carbon neutrality goal. Instead, president Xi Jinping’s much-anticipated speech promised an incremental strengthening of China’s 2030 climate plan, with no mention of curbing coal.

China’s environment ministry floats ‘ban’ on coal power investment abroad

On that front, Pakistan stole the show announcing it would stop building new coal power plants and pivot to clean energy. It promised to generate 60% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

The commitment could cancel 6GW, which would have doubled Pakistan’s coal capacity, according to Chris Littlecott, associate director at think tank E3G.

In an honest reflection of the summit’s achievement, Cop26 president-designate Alok Sharma said that while “real progress” had been made, nations had not done enough to put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5C – the tougher goal of the Paris accord.

“As encouraging as all this ambition is, it is not enough. And the clock continues to tick,” he said.

Setting out his plan for the work that lies ahead, Sharma said “a step change” in carbon-cutting efforts was needed to reach the 1.5C. That needed to included policies like phasing out coal, he said.

Sharma added “strengthening adaptation” and “getting finance flowing” were key to brokering an agreement at Cop26 in Glasgow and promised to convened major economies to make progress on these issues through the UK’s G7 presidency next year.

Comment: Costa Rica and Denmark have set an end date for oil and gas production. The world should follow

In the day’s most hotly anticipated announcement, President Xi’s speech failed to replicate the enthusiasm of his last UN intervention in September.

He reaffirmed his commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak China’s emissions “before 2030” – dates which Guterres said the UN would work to bring forward in bilateral dialogue.

By 2030, Xi promised to reduce carbon intensity to “over 65%” from 2005 levels and boost the growth of wind and solar energy, promising to reach 1,200GW of capacity, up from 415GW at the end of 2019.

Speaking to reporters half way through the event, Guterres expressed disappointment at the absence of a Chinese commitment on curbing coal power generation or ending coal financing overseas.

“We go on insisting, there must be everywhere a commitment not to build new coal power plants,” he said.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told Climate Home the new targets were “largely an extension of current trends to 2030” and could allow for emissions to continue to rise at the same average rate they have over the past five years.

“China’s approach to realising the 2060 carbon neutrality target risks leaving the heavy lifting to the period after 2030,” he said.

Thom Woodroofe, of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the new 2030 measures “fell a long way short” to align with Xi’s carbon neutrality by 2060 ambition.

Li Shuo, senior climate and energy policy officer at Greenpeace East Asia, said Xi’s announcement “demonstrates good will” and left space for greater ambition in 2021. “Making its emissions peak earlier than 2025 is still something it should strive for,” he said.

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Other large emitters appeared largely empty-handed. Prime minister Narendra Modi repeated existing commitments to increase renewable capacity to 175GW by 2022 and 450GW by 2030, saying the country was on track to exceed its targets.

Among the co-organisers, French president Emmanuel Macron fell short, promising to end export finance for oil in 2025 and for gas in 2035 – a poor effort in contrast to its UK neighbour’s announcement that it will end overseas fossil fuel financing in early 2021.

“Many countries contributing to the Climate Ambition Summit ignored the ‘ambition’ part and apparently still lack the moral courage to stand up to the fossil fuel industry,” said Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International.

“Both in terms of national and international action, France is not honouring the legacy of the Cop21,” said Lucile Dufour, International Policy Officer, Réseau Action Climat France.

She added that France’s announcement it will maintain its current levels of climate finance over the next years without increasing them, was “clearly not enough to respond to the growing needs of the most vulnerable countries”.

Ballooning debt cripples poor countries’ hopes of green recovery from Covid

Overall, promises of new money were largely absent. Germany promised €500 million in climate finance and Italy €30 million to the Adaptation Fund – a far cry away from the what poor nations were hoping for.

At a time when climate impacts are reaching records, “the solidarity piece was not at the rendez-vous,” Yamide Dagnet, director of climate negotiations at the World Resources Institute, told Climate Home. “With too few exceptions, we still need to see developed countries honour their commitments on finance.

“During this summit, we have seen continuous leadership from vulnerable countries to decarbonise and make their economies more resilient. They need to be supported. Investments needs to flow to them now.”

Sharma urged donor countries to come forward with new commitments on climate finance and meet their commitments to mobilise $100bn per year from 2020 to support vulnerable nations.

“I have to say, if we can mobilise trillions overnight, rightly, to support our economies [in the coronavirus recovery], why can we not reach this $100 billion dollars goal?”

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“Europe is the leader in the fight against climate change,” said Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, who chaired the EU summit.

“Europe will reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030. It puts us on a clear path towards climate neutrality in 2050,” added Ursula Von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.

The EU’s updated climate goal will now be written down into a draft European Climate Law and transmitted to the United Nations as the bloc’s formal commitment under the Paris Agreement.

The climate talks lasted for eight hours, dragging a summit that started the day before until Friday morning.

Poland, backed by some other coal-dependent central European countries fought through the night to obtain assurances that their economies will not suffer disproportionate costs from the transition to a net-zero economy.

Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic asked for more EU money to finance the green transition and requested greater detail about the “enabling framework” that the European Commission will propose next year to reach the new 2030 goals.

Parisversaire climate ambition summit: who’s in and who’s out

Budapest and Warsaw also pushed for assurances that EU leaders will be consulted in deciding future climate legislation, a move aimed at ensuring that key decisions will be taken by unanimity.

At the heart of their concerns are fears that poorer EU countries will end up carrying a disproportionate share of the burden to meet the 2030 climate goal.

To finance the transition, eastern EU countries called for national targets on EU spending linked to GDP, a move that would ensure a bigger portion of the money is channelled to finance the energy transition in poorer member states.

Poland in particular is 80% reliant on coal for its electricity and has repeatedly voiced concerns that not enough EU funding was available to finance the modernisation of its electricity system.

The Polish electricity association, PKEE, estimates that meeting the EU’s updated 2030 climate goals will cost €68.5 billion by 2030.

To finance this, it called on the European Commission “to substantially increase the number of allowances dedicated to the Modernisation Fund and the ‘solidarity pool’” set up to support 10 lower-income EU countries in their transition to climate neutrality.

Poor nations call for more financial support to cope with climate impacts

Western EU countries, who were pushing for greater ambition on climate change, argued that EU funding was already available, and pointed to the EU’s seven-year budget and recovery fund, worth €1.8 trillion in total, which was agreed earlier on Thursday.

“An overall climate target of at least 30% will apply to the total amount of expenditure” under the €1.8 trillion package, draft summit conclusions said.

The concerns of eastern EU states are not unfounded. According to trade unions, 11 million jobs in Europe are at risk from the transition to a net-zero economy, most of them located in Eastern EU countries.

The green transition “will be much easier in Nordic or western European countries” than in poorer EU member states like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, where employment in some regions can be entirely dependent on a single, heavily-polluting industry, said Luc Triangle, secretary-general of IndustriAll, a federation of trade unions.

Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania also called for “technology neutrality” to achieve the higher climate target.

“What they mean by this is to allow for investments into gas and nuclear energy to be classified as ‘green’. Bulgaria and Hungary are most explicit about this,” explained Sebastian Mang, climate and energy policy adviser at Greenpeace.

This story was originally published by CHN’s media partner Euractiv. 

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The event co-hosted by the UN, UK and France marks the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement and is a moment for countries to present stronger 2030 climate plans, long-term decarbonisation strategies, post-2020 climate finance and adaptation programmes.

Organisers stressed that only national leaders with the boldest plans made during the course of the year would be given a platform. Their pre-recorded video messages of up to two minutes will be interspersed with statements from business and civil society groups.

Around 30 leaders are expected to make net zero announcements and about 50 are tipped to present enhanced 2030 climate contributions to the Paris Agreement – also known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Pope Francis will bring a faith-based perspective.

Australia prime minister Scott Morrison, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa did not meet the ambition benchmark to showcase their climate plans.

The list of participants was still being finalised on Thursday afternoon, after last-minute negotiations over the level of ambition they could bring.

Analysis: After five years, here are five things the Paris Agreement achieved — and didn’t

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Archie Young, the UK’s lead climate negotiator, described “difficult and detailed conversations” with countries during the selection process.

“We want this summit to be focusing on the positive rather than focusing on who might not be present because I think it’s a huge opportunity for the world to come forward and see that countries from across the spectrum are committed to further ambition,” he said.

It comes at the end of a week of reality check on the state of the climate.

A major report by UN Environment Programme found that despite a 7% fall in emissions this year because of Covid-19 restrictions, the emissions gap to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming “well below 2” and strive for 1.5C continues to grow.

Countries would need to collectively increase their pace of emissions reduction this decade threefold to get on track to meet the 2C goal and more than fivefold for 1.5C, the report found. Current 2030 targets will lead to an estimated 3.2C of warming.

“If we postpone any climate action further it will become impossible to limit global warming to 1.5C,” said Anne Olhoff, head of climate policy and planning at UNEP DTU Partnership.

Here is a rundown of who has made the cut — and who hasn’t.

IN: 

China

Xi Jinping surprised the world at the UN in September when he announced China would aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. That alone would likely have qualified Beijing for a place at the summit.

But plenty of questions remain on whether China will accelerate emissions cuts in the short term. Chinese sources say Beijing is on track to submit its 2030 NDC to the UN before the end of year and some details could be revealed at the summit.

Observers and campaigners want to see Xi promise to peak emissions much earlier than 2030, and closer to 2025, and set out a clear pathway for curbing coal production.

European Union

European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen will announce the union’s new target to cut net emissions by at least 55% between 1990 and 2030 — up from 40% currently. She is expected to make a live intervention. European leaders approved the deeper cuts at a Council meeting on Friday morning after marathon talks through the night.

Among member states, summit co-host France is tipped to make an announcement on climate finance disclosures. Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden have also made the list.

India

India has made no major announcements on climate action this year, so premier Narendra Modi had better have a surprise up his sleeve.

The UK Cop26 hosts have worked with Indian officials in recent months and both co-organisers UK prime minister Boris Johnson and French president Emmanuel Macron have spoken to Modi about climate action in recent weeks.

In the absence of a new emissions target, India could present sectoral policies to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. It recently created a committee to manage the delivery of the Paris Agreement.

Other large Asian economies to speak include Pakistan, Iraq, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan.

UK 

Boris Johnson will reiterate a government decision last week to cut emissions 68% from 1990 level by 2030. It is the UK’s first solo contribution to the Paris Agreement after leaving the EU, based on independent advice to get on track for net zero emissions by 2050.

As host to next year’s Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow, the government sought to galvanise greater ambition by announcing its own enhanced climate plan ahead of the summit. However its decision to cut overseas development aid last month went down badly with the poorest countries.

Canada 

Last month, Justin Trudeau’s government presented a bill to parliament to enshrine a 2050 net zero emissions goal into law and set five-yearly carbon targets from 2030 to 2050. 

But the bill made no mention of increasing Canada’s 2030 target to cut emissions by 30% from 2005 levels, which despite a dip in emissions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the government may not be on track to meet, according to Climate Action Tracker.

Japan

Prime minister Yoshihide Suga announced plans for Japan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in October. In a speech to lawmakers, he promised to “fundamentally shift” the country’s coal policy but how this translates into action is yet to be seen.

In March, Japan reaffirmed its existing 2030 target of cutting emissions 26% by 2030 from 2013 levels without an enhancement. A revision of the country’s energy plan is expected to lead to an updated NDC in 2021 and ahead of Cop26.

South Korea

The government committed earlier this year to meet carbon neutrality by 2050. Like Japan, South Korea is under pressure to fully end the financing of coal projects abroad.

Chile

Due to be the host of last year’s UN climate summit, Chile was aiming to come out with its enhanced NDC at the event. Major protests at home forced them to move the COP to Madrid at the last minute and delay the national plan. It was presented instead by videolink in March 2020, promising to peaking emissions by 2025.

Colombia

President Iván Duque announced at the end of November a 2030 climate plan to cut emissions 51% compared with business as usual by 2030 – a significant jump from the previous 20% target. A further nine Latin American countries made the cut including Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay and Suriname.

African countries

Nine African heads of state are due to take part in the summit. This includes Rwanda, which was the first African nation to submit a tougher climate plan to the UN in May.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria and Zimbabwe are listed to talk at the event.

Island states

15 leaders of small island nations are listed as participants. A total of 17 small island nations are expected to submit enhanced climate plans before the end of the year, with announcements expected on Saturday. Tonga submitted its plan to the UN on Wednesday but is not expected to speak.

Jamaica was the first Caribbean nation to increase the scale and scope of its emissions cuts in June.

Their speeches will highlight how extreme weather and rising seas are already costing lives and livelihoods.

OUT: 

Australia

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been widely reported to be about to announce that Australia will not use carry-over credits from the Kyoto-era to meet its 2030 target. Australia was the only country in the world to have proposed using credits from the previous climate regime to meet their commitments under Paris.

Last month, Morrison told the Business Council of Australia: “My government’s ambition is that we will not need them. And we are working to this as our goal, consistent with our record of over delivering in these areas. And I am confident that our policies will get this job done… Now, I hope to have more to say about this before the end of the year.”

But abandoning carbon accounting tricks is the minimum for Australia to fulfill its existing climate pledges and does not represent a step up in ambition.

Russia

Earlier this year, president Vladimir Putin signed an executive order to reduce emissions by 30% from 1990 levels by 2030. That is the more ambitious end of its previous target to cut reduce emissions 25-30% by 2030.

The updated target still allows emissions to rise significantly, as Russia’s emissions remain at about half the level they were in 1990 before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Climate Action Tracker ranks the target as “critically insufficient” to meet the Paris goal and consistent with a pathway towards 4C of warming by the end of the century. The move was not considered “bold” enough to make the cut.

Brazil

Environment minister Ricardo Salles announced this week that Brazil was seeking to join the net zero club, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This was an “indicative” target in its updated NDC submitted this week, while the 2030 goal was unchanged.

Campaigners slammed the net zero goal as meaningless without nearer-term action and a distraction from president Jair Bolsonaro’s destruction of the Amazon rainforest, which has surged to a 12-year high.

South Africa

In September, the government approved a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. But that was not reflected in the detail of the plan, which forecast 5,000 MW of coal power capacity would still be operating in 2050.

Progress would be a coherent plan to phase out coal, with support for workers in the transition.

New Zealand

In April, the government reaffirmed its existing climate plan to cut emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. In its submission to the UN, it said it was waiting for recommendations from its independent Climate Change Commission in early 2021 on how to align its current 2030 plan with its carbon neutrality commitments and the 1.5C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

At the start of December, the parliament declared “a climate emergency” and prime minister Jacinda Ardern committed to make all government department and institutions carbon neutral by 2025. Amping up the rhetoric was not enough to overcome the timetabling slip.

Saudi Arabia

Middle eastern petrostates do not typically present themselves as climate leaders, so it is no great surprise that Arabian Gulf countries are not listed.

However, it underscores a disconnect between increasingly ambitious carbon-cutting goals elsewhere and continued government plans to expand fossil fuel production.

USA

President-elect Joe Biden made climate action central to his election campaign, but is prohibited from speaking on the world stage before inauguration.

The lame duck in the White House, Donald Trump, showed his contempt for international climate cooperation by pulling out of the Paris Agreement.

Instead, the governors of Massachusetts and Michigan, and mayor of Los Angeles will represent the “we’re still in” camp in the slots reserved for civil society.

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