ALTÉRRA was billed as the world’s largest private investment vehicle to “focus entirely on climate solutions”. COP28 President Sultan Al-Jaber hailed its launch as “a defining moment” for creating a new era of international climate finance.

Yet four months later, one of the initial funds ALTÉRRA backed with a $300-million commitment agreed to buy a major fossil gas pipeline in North America, Climate Home has discovered.

In March, BlackRock’s “Global Infrastructure Fund IV” acquired half of the 475 km-long Portland Natural Gas Transmission System, with Morgan Stanley taking the rest in a deal worth $1.14 billion overall.

That acquisition would not have come as a surprise to the fund’s investors.

When US-based BlackRock pitched it to the State of Connecticut’s Investment Advisory Council back in 2022, the world’s biggest asset manager gave a flavour of where their money would likely end up. Its presentation – seen by Climate Home – featured a list of “indicative investments” including highly-polluting sectors such as gas power plants and transportation networks, liquefied natural gas (LNG), airports, terminals and shipping.

Climate Home does not know whether ALTÉRRA saw the same presentation, nor did the UAE firm respond directly to a question asking if it was aware before the COP28 announcement that the BlackRock fund might invest in those sectors.

An ALTÉRRA spokesperson told Climate Home its “investments seek to build the energy systems of tomorrow, while supporting the transition of existing energy infrastructure towards a just and managed clean energy ecosystem”.

Want climate news in your inbox? Sign up for free to get our weekly newsletter and occasional extra bulletins

In addition to the gas pipeline, BlackRock’s infrastructure fund has so far invested in carbon capture, waste management, utilities maintenance services, telecom infrastructure, data centres and the production of industrial gases, according to regulatory filings, a BlackRock job advertisement and press reports accessed by Climate Home.

A BlackRock spokesperson said its global infrastructure fund franchise “targets investments in solutions across the energy transition value chain, driven by the long-term trends of decarbonization, decentralization, and digitalization to support the stability and affordability of energy supply around the world”.

Andreas Sieber, associate director of global policy and campaigns at climate advocacy group 350.org, said Climate Home’s findings “confirm our worst fears”. “The ALTÉRRA fund uses a masquerade of green progress while funnelling investment into fossil fuel pipelines and gas projects, which are the biggest causes of the climate crisis,” he told Climate Home.

Climate finance is a hot topic at UN negotiations, with countries expected to set a new global goal at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, this November, amid persistent calls for higher amounts to help poorer nations boost clean energy production.

The COP28 presidency said last year that ALTÉRRA would “drive forward international efforts to create a fairer climate finance system, with an emphasis on improving access to funding for the Global South”. Al-Jaber added that “its launch reflects… the UAE’s efforts to make climate finance available, accessible and affordable”.

But the sparse details provided at the time prompted climate justice activists to question the real impact it would have in countries that most need financial support to adopt clean energy and adapt to a warming world. Only about a sixth of the fund – $5 billion – was earmarked as “capital to incentivize investment into the Global South”.

Follow the money

ALTÉRRA is a so-called ‘fund of funds’. Instead of directly investing money in individual companies or assets, it puts its cash into a series of funds run by other investment firms. At COP28, it committed a total of $6.5 billion to funds managed by BlackRock, Brookfield and TPG, without setting out how the remaining $23.5 billion would be spent.

Since then, ALTÉRRA has not announced any further investments. Its chief executive, Majid Al Suwaidi, told Bloomberg this month that the fund is “actively planning the next phase of allocations”, without giving further details.

The launch of #ALTÉRRA marks the start of three unique alliances with global asset managers, @Brookfield, @BlackRock, and @tpg.

Together, we share the same vision, to bridge the climate investment gap and finance a new climate economy. pic.twitter.com/7yEXOyZqpK

— ALTÉRRA (@Alterrafund) December 1, 2023

Most of the funds picked by ALTÉRRA remain at an early stage and have yet to announce completed transactions or are still trying to raise more capital from investors. The most notable exception is BlackRock’s fourth Global Infrastructure Fund. By the time it won the $300-million commitment from ALTÉRRA in Dubai, the vehicle was ready to deploy its money.

ALTÉRRA told Climate Home its investment in the BlackRock vehicle is in line with its goals of getting climate finance “flowing quickly and at scale” and of partnering “with funds that invest in the energy transition and accelerate pathways to net-zero”.

Announcing its first $4.5-billion closing in October 2022, BlackRock said the fund would “continue to target investments in climate solutions, while also supporting the infrastructure needed to ensure a stable, affordable energy supply during the transition”.

In private conversations with potential investors, the asset manager spelled out more clearly what that meant.

Its presentation to the State of Connecticut in December 2022 showed that the fund would not only invest in things like renewable energy, electrification and battery storage, but also in fossil gas power plants and pipelines, LNG and transportation infrastructure like airports, shipping and terminals.

A slide from BlackRock’s presentation of the Global Infrastructure Fund IV to investors

In line with this strategy, BlackRock agreed a deal this March for its Global Infrastructure Fund IV to acquire half of the Portland Natural Gas Transmission System (PNGT), a fossil gas pipeline stretching from the Canadian border across New England in the United States to Maine and Massachusetts.

When it began operations in 1999, the pipeline helped shift New England’s power generation away from coal and oil, but it has also created a stronger dependency on fossil gas, leaving citizens vulnerable to price spikes. The region is now planning to accelerate the rollout of renewable energy sources.

Comment: To keep its profits, Big Oil stole our future

The PNGT was not the first fossil fuel infrastructure the BlackRock team behind the Global Infrastructure Fund had snapped up. In a written testimony submitted this March to the State of New Hampshire, a senior executive listed a dozen oil and gas pipelines backed by earlier rounds of the fund. They included one operated by ADNOC, the UAE state-owned oil company whose CEO is Sultan Al-Jaber, COP28 president and chair of ALTÉRRA’s board.

Responding to Climate Home’s findings on where ALTÉRRA’s money is going, Mohamed Adow, director of Nairobi-based think-tank Power Shift Africa, said it is “extremely concerning to see a fund hailed by a COP president as a solution to the climate crisis investing in fossil fuels”.

“This needs to be a wake-up call to the world that these funds created by COP hosts are little more than PR stunts designed to greenwash the activities of fossil fuel-producing nations,” he added.

Oil-backed carbon capture

BlackRock does not disclose the infrastructure fund’s complete portfolio, but it has invested another $550 million in Stratos, the world’s biggest direct air capture (DAC) project being developed in a joint venture with oil giant Occidental. The plant under construction in Texas promises to suck as much as 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere annually and bury it underground.

Its proponents see DAC as a key technology to balance out emissions in the race to achieve net zero by 2050, although so far it remains expensive and largely unproven at scale. Stratos won a grant from the US government to fast-track the construction of the facility, and it has struck deals to sell carbon offsets generated in future from the plant with corporate giants like Amazon.

Scottish oil-town plan for green jobs sparks climate campers’ anger over local park

When the DAC partnership was announced last November, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Stratos “represents an incredible investment opportunity for BlackRock’s clients… and underscores the critical role of American energy companies in climate technology innovation”.

But Stratos’ critics have questioned Occidental’s motivations and dismissed its DAC investments as a greenwashing ploy to keep pumping oil and slow down the transition away from fossil fuels.

“We believe that our direct capture technology is going to be the technology that helps to preserve our industry over time,” Vicki Hollub, Occidental’s chief executive, told the CERAWeek energy industry conference last year. “This gives our industry a license to continue to operate for the 60, 70, 80 years that I think it’s going to be very much needed.”

Call for safeguards

While BlackRock’s infrastructure fund deploys its cash largely in the Global North, ALTÉRRA’s promised investments in developing countries are still taking shape.

Brookfield in June launched a new “Catalytic Transition Fund” backed by ALTÉRRA with a $1-billion commitment. The fund’s stated focus is “directing capital into clean energy and transition assets in emerging economies”.

Climate Home asked ALTÉRRA if it had adopted any exclusion policies that would, for example, rule out investment in certain types of fossil fuels.

The UAE fund did not respond to the question, but a spokesperson said its investment approach is aligned with the goal “of accelerating the climate transition, with a focus on clean energy, industry decarbonization, sustainable living, and climate technologies”.

Climate activists protest against fossil fuels during COP28 in Dubai in December 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya

350.org’s Sieber called on Al-Jaber – who was widely criticised by green groups for his dual role as president of COP28 and head of a fossil fuel corporation – to “act swiftly to enforce stringent safeguards” for ALTÉRRA’s investments.

“The UAE is on the brink of losing the little credibility it still has left in addressing the urgency of the climate emergency,” Sieber added. “The world, especially communities who are being hit the hardest by climate impacts every day, cannot afford to have one more cent invested in fossil fuels.”

The key question now is whether Azerbaijan – the host of COP29 and itself a substantial producer and exporter of oil and gas – will do things differently. Last week, it announced a new voluntary fund that it said will invest at least $1 billion for emissions reduction projects in developing countries. Baku is hoping to secure contributions for it from fossil-fuel producing nations and companies.

Power Shift Africa’s Adow said developing countries need state-backed climate finance from rich nations, negotiated through the UN climate process, and “not just cooked up in voluntary schemes”. That funding “can be used where the need is greatest, not just where it might make most money for some private profit-seeking businesses,” he added.

(Reporting by Matteo Civillini; fact-checking by Sebastián Rodríguez; editing by Megan Rowling and Sebastián Rodríguez)

The post UAE’s ALTÉRRA invests in fund backing fossil gas despite “climate solutions” pledge appeared first on Climate Home News.

A few weeks ago, leaders of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) met in Antigua & Barbuda to discuss our next decade of action. This, for us, is the critical decade, no less. We have a few years to change the tides that are swallowing our islands and extinguishing our culture and our identity.  

Pacific Island communities are unwilling witnesses of the climate crisis – emitting minuscule amounts of greenhouse gases while bearing the brunt of the extreme and devastating consequences of the world’s failure to break its addiction to fossil fuels.  

During that meeting, we heard from some G7 leaders that they will support our priorities, that a fossil fuel phase-out and a just and equitable transition is necessary. But these cannot be hollow words. As the single greatest security threat for our region, it is time to implement your commitments or be held accountable for your lack of inaction by carrying the loss of our future generations on your shoulders. 

Just a few months ago, at the UN climate talks in Dubai, countries around the world finally agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. This week in Bonn, any talk of how countries plan to implement this agreement was noticeably absent.

Bonn bulletin: Fossil fuel transition left homeless

But now, G7 nations – Canada, Japan, Italy, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France – are gathering at a historic time for climate politics, holding one of the first opportunities to show their leadership by putting the COP28 decision on fossil fuels into action. 

This will also be the last time these countries meet before they are required to submit updated and enhanced climate plans through to 2035 under the Paris Agreement. It is a final chance for G7 nations to adopt the measures that are necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C. 

Despite having both the capacity and the responsibility to be leaders driving forward a full, fast, fair and funded phase-out of fossil fuels, these countries are not walking the walk – at home or abroad.

Islands as “collateral damage”?

Some G7 countries have plans to massively expand fossil fuel production at home despite science telling us that no new oil, gas, or coal projects are compatible with a safe climate, while others are using billions of the public’s money to finance more fossil fuel infrastructure abroad. 

We are urging G7 nations to demonstrate true leadership at the upcoming negotiations, immediately halting the approval of all new fossil fuel projects and committing to 1.5°C-aligned timelines for phasing out existing fossil fuel reliance in a just and equitable manner.  

This transition must prioritise the needs of developing countries, which bear the brunt of climate change impacts despite contributing the least to its causes. 

G7 coal charade: Funding the fire they claim to fight

G7 countries have already committed to end international public finance for fossil fuel projects but continue approving billions of dollars for fossil fuel infrastructure. They are giving the fossil fuel industry a lifeline, indebting vulnerable countries, and delaying a just energy transition.  

In the words of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres: “The idea that an entire island state could become collateral damage for profiteering by the fossil fuel industry is simply obscene.” 

There is no shortage of public money to enable a just and equitable transition to renewable energy and turn the COP28 agreement into a reality. It is just poorly distributed to the most harmful parts of the global economy that are driving climate change and inequality: fossil fuels, unfair colonial debts, and the super-rich. 

We need G7 countries to pay their fair share on fair terms for fossil fuel phase-out and the other crises we face. Climate finance remains the critical enabler of action – over the course of our meetings in Antigua & Barbuda we heard some G7 countries make commitments and pledges; we also heard a lot of solutions and options that will exacerbate our debt burden.  

But for us, it is clear. Climate finance must be scaled up to meet the trillions of dollars needed for adaptation, mitigation, and addressing loss and damage; and sent to where it is most needed – on fair terms that do not further burden our economies with debt. 

Hold fossil fuel firms to account

The members of the G7 are among the world’s most powerful and wealthiest nations. They have a responsibility to lead the way both at home and abroad. Anything less is hypocrisy and gross negligence, and risks endangering the implementation of the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels. 

The Pacific Island nations have been vocal advocates for ambitious climate action and have led by example for decades. In 2023, our leaders aspired to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific. We embedded the language of phase-out and transition in our leaders’ declaration.   

Bonn talks on climate finance goal end in stalemate on numbers

We have felt the impacts of climate change more acutely than most and have consistently called for comprehensive and equitable global action for the very survival of our nations and for the good of all people and species.  

For Pacific Island nations, the transition to clean and renewable energy is not just a goal but a necessity for survival. We call upon the G7 to reflect the highest possible ambition. These countries must acknowledge and support our aspiration for a fossil fuel-free future, setting an example for sustainable development that prioritizes the well-being of people and planet over profit – and ensure that the fossil fuel companies responsible for the climate crisis bear the cost of their actions. 

The time for action is now. The fate of our planet hangs in the balance, and the decisions made by the G7 nations will shape our collective future. We implore them to heed the call of the Pacific Island nations and rise to the challenge of the climate crisis with boldness, ambition and urgency. Our shared future depends on it. 

The post G7 countries must deliver on COP28 promise to cut fossil fuels appeared first on Climate Home News.

The post Bonn bulletin: Fears over “1.5 washing” in national climate plans appeared first on Climate Home News.

When the Stade de France in Paris is filled to capacity, it holds 81,400 people. You would then need another 2,484 to reach the number of badge-wearing participants at last year’s UN COP28 climate change conference in Dubai. This illustrates the sheer size of what was the world’s most important climate-focused event in 2023. 

But it also begs the question, do these annual ‘mega-gatherings’ actually deliver anything? 

One thing is abundantly clear: despite almost three decades of COPs and ballooning attendance, our greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and the world continues to warm. 

Process hijacking purpose  

My colleagues and I at Clim-Eat – the think-and-do-tank for food and climate that I founded in 2021 – recently published a paper examining the efficacy of COP summits, specifically in relation to food and agriculture. We found several failures. 

Firstly, negotiations on food and agriculture have moved at a snail’s pace over the past 17 years. In spite of numerous meetings, workshops, submissions and decisions, there has been literally no real-world impact as a result.  

Secondly, the trend of COP host countries – known as Presidencies – launching special initiatives on specific issues of interest has achieved little. These initiatives receive plenty of media attention when announced but amount to little more than virtue signalling. 

Rich nations meet $100bn climate finance goal – two years late

For example, at the launch of COP21’s 4p1000 Initiative, France’s then-Minister of Agriculture said it could reconcile aims of food security and the fight against climate change. Today, the initiative has yet to report anything on the positive climate action it sought to create.  

The same goes for Morocco’s COP22 initiative on Adaptation in African Agriculture. It no longer mentions its ambitious target of raising $30 billion to support farmers – presumably because it hasn’t been reached. There are plenty of other examples of special initiatives being quietly ushered out of the spotlight.  

Unwarranted optimism

Let’s remember that COP negotiations first recognised agriculture as the key to solving climate change in 2006. It then took six years to agree on the next steps. Then, only in 2022, 16 years after the initial point, did the negotiations agree that “socioeconomic and food security dimensions are critical when dealing with climate change in agriculture and food systems.” Sixteen years to build a sentence to combat a third of global emissions.  

This suggests there’s little reason to be optimistic about the Emirates Declaration on Food and Agriculture, a special initiative launched at last year’s COP28. Signed by 159 countries, it called for action to adapt food systems to climate change, but the summit’s official negotiations on food and agriculture failed to acknowledge the declaration or reflect its priorities. The declaration itself is a creative collection of various adjectives and adverbs, reaffirmations and goals to ‘strengthen’ commitments. And six months after its launch, it is not clear whether it has led to anything at all; placing faith in its outcomes is utterly fanciful. 

The path forward

This cycle of the UNFCCC and COP Presidencies applauding special initiatives in the short term without holding countries responsible in the long term has to stop. The hamster wheel of inaction continues to spin.  

But we can slow it down and perhaps get off the wheel altogether. To do this, my colleagues and I concluded that the UN needs to: 

• Reform the UNFCCC process to prioritise measurable results and impacts, shifting its role to that of a watchdog ensuring action from all actors rather than merely organising large, costly meetings. 
• Make COPs leaner and less frequent/hold them every other year, reducing participant numbers and focusing on productive meetings. 
• Increase transparency regarding the financial costs of COPs, participation and emissions, to hold the UN accountable. 

Implementing these recommendations will not be easy. It means changing entrenched ways and tackling entrenched interests. There will be push-back.  

But as the UN’s mid-year climate talks begin in Bonn this week, observe the promises made with little follow-through, the unwarranted yet celebratory atmosphere filling the air – largely destined to be forgotten. Notice that when the clapping has stopped, and the initiators are no longer in the spotlight, they will slink back into the shadows, waiting to resurface onto the next grand stage at COP29 in Azerbaijan.  

The post The great COP food systems illusion: UN climate talks deliver no real-world action appeared first on Climate Home News.

In the Danish port city, as dozens of ministers fired the starting gun on the annual climate diplomacy race, the focus was on putting December’s landmark Cop28 decision into practice. In Dubai, governments agreed for the first time to start shifting away from fossil fuels. But officials are now contemplating how to make that work in the real world – and, crucially, who will pay for it.

Meanwhile, in oil and gas-rich Texas, top fossil fuel executives took to the stage at the energy industry conference CERAWeek, where they cast doubt on the transition away from fossil fuels agreed at Cop28, with Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser calling it a “fantasy”.

In the courts, Republican-led US states sued the Biden administration over its recent decision to pause new approvals for fossil gas exports.

Energy transition crossroads

For climate policy observers, these opposing forces are not entirely surprising.

Romain Ioualalen, global policy manager at campaign group Oil Change International, said the Cop28 decision puts the fossil fuel industry at a crossroads: either it pours more investment into renewable energy, or it doubles down on oil, gas and coal in a bid to undermine the green shift as much as possible.

“It seems to have chosen the latter – and unless governments immediately intervene to end fossil fuel expansion, people and planet will pay the price,” he added.

Pushing for faster adoption of clean energy certainly appears to be the intention on the international climate policy stage, where the political machinery is clanking back into gear after what Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen dubbed “historic progress” in Dubai.

“Important decisions have been made on the action,” he told the start of the Danish summit. “Now, how do we pay for it?”

Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, delivers remarks at the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, flanked by Cop29 incoming president Mukhtar Babayev. REUTERS/Ali Withers

The question of finding money for the energy transition in developing countries will be front and centre this year as countries need to agree on a “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG) for climate finance at Cop29 in November, which will kick in from next year.

The battle lines are already drawn: developing nations want their richer counterparts to stump up the highest amount of cash with the fewest strings attached. Developed countries want other governments, including China and fossil fuel-rich Gulf nations, to join the list of donors.

The size of the money pot – and the conditions to tap into it – will be particularly important for emerging economies. They want help to finance the costly emission-slashing measures they are being asked to take.

For Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s incoming Cop29 president, the negotiations on the new finance goal represent an opportunity to rebuild trust. Unlocking more funds, he told fellow ministers in Denmark, “will empower all parties to raise the ambition” of their upcoming climate plans.

Cop Troika urges “high-ambition” NDCs

The updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that all countries have been asked to submit by early 2025 was the other main talking point in Denmark on Thursday and Friday.

The so-called ‘Troika’ of the hosts of Cop28 (UAE), Cop29 (Azerbaijan) and Cop30 (Brazil) has tasked itself with building momentum and prompting countries to get moving.

On the eve of the Danish summit, the Cop presidencies sent a letter to all parties calling for “early submissions of high ambition NDCs that decisively take forward the UAE Consensus [the agreement struck in Dubai]”.

UN’s climate body faces “severe financial challenges” which put work at risk

The Troika “will aim to raise and reframe ambition for the development process” of the national climate action blueprints, pushing for more support, resources and finance, it added.

But the missive did not go down well with developed countries – and, above all, with the United States.

Its deputy special envoy for climate Sue Biniaz said she was “quite surprised” at the Troika’s suggestion that this year’s “focus on NDCs should be all about support” and that the Cop hosts defined a “high ambition NDC” for developed countries as one that includes finance for developing countries. Using that kind of wording could be “highly prejudicial” to climate finance negotiations, she warned.

Do as I say, not as I do

In the letter, the Cop host governments also pledged to demonstrate their own commitment by submitting NDCs that are aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

That announcement raised some eyebrows. The UAE and Brazil have some of the world’s biggest plans to expand fossil fuel production between now and 2050, while Azerbaijan’s economy primarily relies on fossil fuel extraction and it is poised to hike gas exports.

African dismay at decision to host loss and damage advice hub in Geneva

Those intentions clash with what the International Energy Agency (IEA) says is required to remain on a 1.5C trajectory: fossil fuel demand needs to fall 80% by 2050, meaning no new upstream oil and gas projects are needed, as of now.

Harjeet Singh of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said that discrepancy “raises serious questions about the alignment between [the Troika’s] words and their actions”.

“These countries must disentangle themselves from fossil fuel interests and lead climate action by example, pressuring wealthier nations that continue to shirk their historic and moral responsibilities,” he added.

Fossil fuel reality check

The rhetoric coming from the fossil fuel industry assembled at Houston’s CERAWeek suggests strong pressure will be needed.

Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser called for more, not less, investment in oil and gas, as he claimed that the current energy transition strategy is “visibly failing on most fronts”.

President and CEO, Amin Nasser, asserts at #CERAWeek 2024 that energy consumers around the world need lower-carbon energy with minimal disruptions to their daily lives and calls for a new, multi-source, multi-speed, and multi-dimensional road to a realistic transition#aramco pic.twitter.com/OEkQvuK9HD

— aramco (@aramco) March 19, 2024

Meg O’Neill, chief executive of Australian oil and gas firm Woodside Energy, said the shift to clean energy cannot “happen at an unrealistic pace”. The bosses of oil giants Shell, ExxonMobil and Petrobras echoed similar views.

One fossil fuel executive who is equally at home in industry talking shops and climate diplomacy circles is Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber.

On Tuesday, he told attendees at the oil and gas conference in the US that “there is just no avoiding that the energy transition will take time”.

Two days later, over in Denmark, he emphasised that “governments and all relevant parties” have to be honest about what moving away from fossil fuels will involve.

“We can’t misguide or mislead anyone anymore,” he said, sending out a message that could apply on both sides of the Helsingør-Houston divide. “We must confront the facts very early. Those who are in this room. It is our job, our duty to do that.”

The post Climate leaders, oil bosses pitch alternate energy-transition realities appeared first on Climate Home News.

After two weeks in Dubai, all governments agreed to “call on” each other “to contribute” to eight “global efforts” – one of which was “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”.

But at a forum in Riyadh, gesturing on stage to an image displaying the relevant text, long-time minister Abdulaziz bin Salman claimed that “all of these eight items you have in front of you are choices – that’s why I call it a la carte”.

A screenshot from Bin Salman’s presentation

To justify this interpretation, he pointed to phrases in the introduction to this section like “nationally determined” and “taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances”.

Bin Salman stressed the difference between “transitioning away from” and “phasing out” fossil fuels – a phrase that was in an early draft at Cop28 and a coalition of mainly developed and vulnerable nations had pushed for.

If they were the same, he said, “we could have used the same word interchangeably but there is a difference here which is…there are people that are transitioning because they want to change their energy mix like us and there are those who believe that they should transition away because they don’t want to use fossil fuels”.

Bin Salman’s interpretation is very different from that of many other governments, campaigners and the head of the United Nations climate change division Simon Stiell who called the agreement the “beginning of the end” for the fossil fuel era.

E3G analyst Tom Evans, who followed talks closely, told Climate Home that Bin Salman’s framing was “incredibly misleading”.

“The text is very clear that these are global efforts – that means everyone, including Saudi Arabia, signed up to transitioning away from fossil fuels, it’s not a pick and mix,” he added.

Evans pointed out that an earlier Cop28 draft would have given governments the option to ignore provisions. “That text was strongly rejected as too weak”, he said.

“The only choice a country like Saudi Arabia now has is whether to continue denying the international consensus that the fossil fuel era is coming to an end or instead step into the fold and play its part in the energy transition,” he said.

First ever Paris Agreement offsets face integrity questions

The Paris Agreement does not contain any measures to make governments do what they agree to in Cop agreements.

Bin Salman attacked other unnamed governments, accusing some of “negotiating through the media” in the first few days of Cop28, adding that Saudi Arabia had been “called names” and was “a victim of misconceived perceptions”.

He questioned why “some of these countries that are desperate to phase out or phase down fossil fuels” don’t freeze their fossil fuel production and detail how they would phase out production.

Only a handful of countries like France and Denmark have committed to ending fossil fuel production.

Rich nations like the US, Canada, Australia, Norway and the UK remain major oil and gas producers and have no plans to stop producing.

The US and Canada plan to increase oil and gas production by 2030, as will Saudi Arabia.

The post “A la carte menu”: Saudi minister claims Cop28 fossil fuel agreement is only optional appeared first on Climate Home News.

But, while protests about the war in Gaza echoed all over the venue, survivors of the ongoing Sudanese conflict told Climate Home they felt voiceless about their struggle.

A rare voice for Sudan in the main Cop28 meeting room was Roaa Alobeid, who said on behalf of youth campaigners: “I saw on movies what war was like, but never ever dreamed it would be so horrible like this”.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by LCOY SUDAN 2023 (@lcoy_sudan)

She told Climate Home: “We all see what is happening in Gaza and are very empathetic with them, as Arabs, Muslims and human beings.”

“But I felt very terrible at Cop, because I also know what is happening in Sudan and how we almost share the same experience, the only difference being the enemy”, she said.

“When I was seeing how the whole world is not only aware but empathetic and fighting for what is happening to [the Palestinians], and as a Sudanese youth nobody even knew that I was displaced too, it really hurts”.

Forced to flee

Sudan’s civil war began in April, as the military clashed with the country’s main paramilitary force.

Since then, the two sides have killed thousands of people and sent millions fleeing for safety, including several Cop delegates and staff.

Nisreen Elsaim is an African Group negotiator from Khartoum 2, the wealthy neighbourhood of Sudan’s capital which became the heart of the conflict.

She told Climate Home that missiles and stray bullets had hit her home. “I took my 10-month baby, ran downstairs and stayed under beds for the two weeks that followed that morning,” she said, adding that they had endured a full month under shelling – ten days of which were with no water or electricity.

“My home’s backyard is now a graveyard,” she said, “there isn’t enough space to bury the dead anymore”.

Nisreen Elsaim boards a British humanitarian flight from Sudan to the UK (Photo: Nisreen Elsaim)

Mona Saad Elnour is a dentist and was one of the blue-jacketed staff members guiding delegates around Cop28.

She said she’d had to flee her home with just a passport, one set of pyjamas and her abaya dress.

Youth campaigner Mohammed Fathalrahman says he survived death by shooting once and bombing twice before travelling to Cop28.

While he has moved to Port Sudan for work, his family still live in Sudan’s second-biggest city Wad Madani, which troops invaded just after Cop28 on Monday.

A vicious cycle

The Sudanese delegates Climate Home spoke to emphasised the link between climate change and conflict.

In her rousing speech at Cop28, Roaa called for attention to wars in Sudan, Palestine, Syria, Congo-Brazzaville and elsewhere. But, she added, “let us not forget about the climate crisis.”

Before the war, after floods in 2017, she visited a village destroyed by the water. “There was nothing left in that village. All the houses, the schools, the hospitals – all had been destroyed”.

Countries go ahead with carbon deals despite Cop28 standoff

Elsaim is researching how war affects climate resilience and said that climate disasters like floods, droughts and sandstorms weaken fragile institutions and erode the government’s capacity to stop conflict.

She added that many of the conflicts are partly over the use of shared natural resources and those natural resources are depleted by the conflict.

“Bombs, deforestation, toxic gases – we are already witnessing their effect,” she said, “climate change and conflict run in a vicious cycle”.

The post Sudan’s Cop28 delegates “really hurt” by silence on their civil war appeared first on Climate Home News.

Talks over Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement – allowing for bilateral deals – collapsed in Dubai following a bitter fight over integrity between the European Union and the United States.

But willing countries can still move ahead with agreements in a vacuum that is increasingly being filled by independent certifiers from the voluntary market. Some observers are raising questions on whether they are fit for purpose.

Transatlantic fight

When the EU led a push at Cop28 for tighter controls over the bilateral exchange of carbon credits, one of its main goals was to restrict the role of operators from the voluntary carbon market.

In the year leading up to the summit, criticism of the market, which sells offsets mainly to corporate emitters, intensified. The climate credentials and the social and environmental integrity of several of its projects were being questioned. The nascent mechanism should draw a blank slate – the EU argued – and rely on a new standard directly supervised by the UN.

US Climate envoy John Kerry is a major proponent of carbon markets. Photo: COP28 / Christophe Viseux

The US went into the talks with a polar opposite vision. It wanted a light-touch approach built on the existing voluntary standards, accepting their requirements and using their infrastructure, according to a leaked EU memo prepared before Cop28 and first reported by The Lever.

The two forces clashed during deeply divisive marathon negotiations in Dubai, failing to find common ground. “Views have become more polarised,” said Pedro Martins Barata, an expert at EDF and a former carbon markets negotiator. “There’s more dissent on an almost philosophical level on what carbon markets should be like.”

After no deal

As the summit drew to a close, the Cop presidency put a ‘take it or leave it’ text on the table. It contained provisions the EU and other groups found unacceptable and was roundly rejected. Negotiators will try again to land a deal at Cop29 next year.

In the meantime, countries can still go ahead with bilateral deals under an initial rulebook agreed two years ago in Glasgow. “Nothing that happened in Dubai prevents countries from moving forward and some will certainly do so,” said Martins Barata.

Switzerland is developing projects with Ghana, Thailand and Vanuatu that will help achieve its climate goals. Singapore inked a similar deal with Papua New Guinea during the summit.

How Russia won a ‘dangerous loophole’ for fossil gas at Cop28

The political stalemate has opened up a big opportunity for players from the voluntary market. They are expected to take a leading role in filling the regulatory gap, experts told Climate Home.

“If a voluntary standard or its projects are given preference by certain countries, it will be a significant stamp of approval and could generate lots of investment,” said Jonathan Crook from Carbon Market Watch.

Voluntary market eyes opportunity

Some are wasting no time. Singapore, a pioneer in bilateral offsets, is partnering up with Verra and Gold Standard, the leading carbon credit registers. Their goal is to create a “playbook” with rules and procedures for countries to use existing carbon credit programs to achieve their climate plans under Article 6.

Hugh Salway, a senior director at Gold Standard, sees an important role for existing operators to speed up the implementation of deals. “A government can create its standard which would take time to develop and would be complicated to maintain,” he told Climate Home. “Or it can use our standard which is already set up with rules, methodologies, and auditors.”

‘Car without wheels’: Adaptation playbook lacks finance target

Another register, the Qatar-based Global Carbon Council (GCC), is also working with a series of credits-producing countries, including Oman and Ghana. They are looking to sell article 6.2 offsets in a first-of-its-kind auction at the beginning of 2024.

“We have been doing this for years, we have the necessary capacity to make it work,” said Kishor Rajhansa, chief operating officer of GCC. Limiting the role of the private sector “would kill off the potential of article 6.2,” he added in an interview at Cop28.

Integrity concerns raised

But some observers are concerned by an outsized influence of existing standards given their chequered record.

Some flagship projects certified by Verra have come under fire for making exaggerated climate claims and for causing alleged environmental and human rights violations. The GCC has been accused of breathing new life into offsets that hardly make any difference to global emissions and would not be accepted anywhere else.

Using voluntary market systems “may simplify things, but it raises many questions about how suitable it is, both for countries and the climate, given all the issues that have been flagged,” said Carbon Market Watch’s Crook.

This article was updated on 20/12/24 to add that the leaked EU memo was first reported on by The Lever.

The post Countries go ahead with carbon deals despite Cop28 standoff appeared first on Climate Home News.

Russia, the world’s second biggest gas producer, told the United Nations back in February that “natural gas as a transitional fuel… can be used for [emission-cutting] purposes” and this should be recognised at Cop28.

While the final Cop28 agreement does not specifically mention gas, it “recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security”.

It also calls on governments to transition away from fossil fuels in their energy systems so as to achieve net zero by 2050.

Diann Black-Layne from Antigua and Barbuda told the closing meeting of Cop28 that the “transitional fuel” language “is a dangerous loophole”. Coal, oil and gas are all fossil fuels and “we need to transition away from them,” she said.

But Barbados’s climate envoy Avinash Persaud later told Climate Home: “If you actually think about transitioning grids, transition fuels would help to transition with the lowest emissions. You can’t flip a switch and so in the mean time half switch. The challenge is to make sure that the slip road doesn’t become a parking lot.”

Persaud said that “more than a few” countries had supported the language “at some level and at varying degrees”. Another negotiator agreed it “wasn’t just Russia”.

Last-minute addition

Ahead of Cop28, governments and other organisations told a UN panel what they wanted to do to put the world on track to meet its climate goals, in a process known as the global stocktake.

A team of technical experts summarised all the submissions in October. The head of UN climate change, Simon Stiell, called for a “course correction”.

The technical summary included a line which called on governments to “recognise role of natural gas as an efficient transitional fuel”.

At Cop28, a leaked recording heard by Climate Home News shows a Russian negotiator said that ” we suggest emphasising the role of fuels with low-carbon footprint in particular natural gas – that’s transitional fuels and that enables efficient greenhouse gas reductions”.

The UAE Presidency put together an initial 27-page document which included the language which made it into the final text, dropping the mention of gas but referring to “transitional fuels”.

Like many other parts of this document, it included an alternative option of no text. Three days later, after talking to governments, the UAE Presidency dropped it from their next version of the Dubai deal.

With all the attention on the broader issue of fossil fuel phase-out, this language was little noticed or commented on – either in the press or by negotiators.

It stayed off the radar until the scheduled end date for Cop28, 12 December. It appeared in a draft text, according to a source who saw the text, time-stamped 8pm that night.

But some negotiators didn’t see it until the text was published at 7am the following morning. Four hours later, the closing plenary meeting began and within minutes it had been approved.

‘An honest paragraph’

The strongest supporters of anti-fossil fuel language at Cop28 were developed nations, particularly the European Union, and small islands.

But on gas, developed countries did not want to resist, and small islands were still in a separate meeting room discussing the text when the decision was made.

Speaking to press shortly afterwards, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said the EU delegation had not had much time to discuss the text.

But, she said through a translator, “for me it is really an honest paragraph”. She said Germany and the EU have been accused of hypocrisy at previous Cops for continuing to use gas while asking other countries to move to renewables.

“We wanted to show that this does not happen from one day for another but it will happen slowly, slowly, slowly,” she said. Gas is “a bridge”, she said, and “every bridge has an end”.

Kaveh Guilanpour, from the Center for Climate and Clean Energy Solutions, said he’d rather the language had not been there “but in many ways its consistent with what lot of countries and regions are actually doing”.

The day before Cop28 closed, Brazil auctioned 193 oil and gas blocks. On the day it closed, the Italian export credit agency lent €400m ($436m) to a firm to supply Italy with gas. The day after, the board of a European public bank decided to keep lending to gas pipelines and power plants.

Small islands not there

The negotiating group for 39 small, developing island states (Aosis) was most likely to object to that language.

But, having seen the final text at 7am, when the plenary started they were still frantically discussing whether to support it or not.

As they entered the room with their comments on the text in hand, the room was already standing to applaud Cop28 president Sultan Al-Jaber’s announcement that it had been adopted.

Their lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen from Samoa took the microphone to say she “was a little confused about what happened”.

Delivering her prepared remarks, she said that because of the transitional fuels language – and other issues – that the “course correction has not been secured”.

“We have made incremental advancements over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step change,” she said.

To a standing ovation, she said the text includes a “litany of loopholes” for carbon capture and on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.

This article was updated on 16/12/23 to include the leaked recording of the Russian negotiator

The post How Russia won a ‘dangerous loophole’ for fossil gas at Cop28 appeared first on Climate Home News.

Countries on the front lines of the climate crisis fear that they are still being left to carry the costs, and sink beneath the waves. This global deal has to work for everyone, or it won’t work for any of us.

Here are ten takeaways.

1. No, this outcome is not enough to avert runaway climate change 

Rather than a being a detailed plan to save the planet, the deal is a badly-drawn sketch on the back of an envelope.

It only ‘calls for’ a transition away from fossil fuels, rather than deciding on a full phase out. It makes no requirement of the world’s biggest polluters to act any faster than the lower income countries who have done little to cause climate change.

It doesn’t put in place any finance to deliver any of its goals. And it leans on debunked technologies that the fossil fuel industry use to delay their phase out.

This means that the package does not have a whole lot of structural integrity and does not do much to push the biggest, or pull the smallest, in the right direction.

2. But it may accelerate the stranding of fossil fuel assets  

You might have seen people celebrating the ‘signal’ that Cop28’s call to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ sends. What does that mean? Does it mean anything at all? Well, yes actually.

The outcome could indeed make waves in the distant boardrooms of banks, investors and asset managers.

For seven years, financial institutions have completely ignored the Paris Agreement’s goal of aligning their financial flows with low greenhouse gas emissions pathways, and have instead continued to provide trillions of dollars to the fossil companies fuelling the climate crisis.

But the call on countries to transition away from fossil fuels is more likely to hit investors’ bottom lines. Bank loans to coal, oil and gas developments in countries that undertake the transition might never be repaid.

Shares and investments in fossil resources that will never be exploited will lose their value. Financial actors are strange, stubborn and unpredictable pack animals. The sensible ones will be planning their fossil exit strategies right now, ahead of the stampede.

3. Appetite for climate action is not matched by willingness to fund it 

There’s no such thing as a free climate target. Cop28 really showed that while the world’s appetite for climate action has moved significantly forward, its willingness to cover the costs lags behind.

The wealthiest countries refused to offer any new finance to help lower income counties to leapfrog the fossil fuel era.

Many developing countries – those already being pushed into debt by the spiralling cost of climate disasters – will now be forced to make impossible choices between economic security and climate action.

If rich countries had been willing to put real finance and fair timelines on the table, the outcome could have been much stronger.

Finding ways forward on climate finance, and how we can cover the costs for the world we want to build together, must now be part of every climate conversation.

4. Saudi Arabia was willing to move (a bit). The US was not 

With Cop28 being held in the UAE, there has been plenty of discussion about the role of the Gulf States, and the fossil fuel industry’s influence on the talks.

Saudi Arabia emerged as the country holding out most strongly against language to phase out fossil fuels.

But in fact, according to sources in the negotiating rooms, the US was the country that refused point blank to allow any language on finance or fair timelines. 

In the final hours of Cop28, the head of the UN Antonio Guterres and of UN climate change Simon Stiell, alluded to ‘arbitrary red lines’, ‘entrenched positions’, ‘blocking tactics’ and ‘landmines’. That gave us insights into how the big beasts were locking horns behind closed doors

Ultimately, the call to transition away from fossil fuels represented Saudi’s willingness to compromise, somewhat. But the lack of finance in the deal showed that the US walked away with most of what it wanted, and gave nothing in return.

5. Developing countries leave Dubai with little  

Unfairness is getting more baked into climate talks with each passing year. In thrall to the powerful players, Cop28 barely registered the needs of the countries who have done so little to cause the climate crisis, yet who are suffering the worst impacts and bearing all the costs.

The Alliance of Small Island States criticised the final document as a ‘litany of loopholes’ and ‘an incremental advancement over business-as-usual, when what we really needed was an exponential step change in our actions and support’.

Finance and fairness are key to ensuring the whole world can get on board with the transition to a fossil-free future. But with developing countries feeling demoted to bystanders in their own negotiations, these essential components are nowhere to be found.

6. False solutions get a foot in the door 

Most people who have done the maths understand that carbon markets, and technologies like carbon capture and storage, simply can’t solve the climate crisis.

But these dangerous distractions provide a lifeline to the fossil industry, who are desperate to repeat the disproven claim that it’s fine carry on burning their products as long as unicorns, sorry I mean ‘new technologies’, take emissions out the air afterwards.

Cop28’s text leaning on these debunked approaches proved a triumph of lobbying over science. Meanwhile, technical negotiations trying to develop rules to govern carbon markets collapsed, with weak drafts deemed dangerous and unfixable.

Efforts to regulate nonsensical concepts will pick up again next year

7. Adaptation is unfunded 

Climate change is bringing erratic rainfall patterns, warming oceans, floods, droughts and stronger cyclones to developing countries.

It is causing crop failures, destroying homes and drying up water sources. Governments are desperate to scale up adaptation to help communities strengthen their resilience to these impacts.

But the money that should be coming from the rich countries that are causing the climate crisis, is not forthcoming. Rich counties deleted any language reassuring countries that they will get the support they need.

8. Loss and damage fund finally agreed 

There was some good news on the first day of Cop, two long weeks ago. Technical negotiations that took place throughout 2023 put forward an imperfect but important proposal for a loss and damage fund.

Unusually, this proposal was agreed in the opening plenary, and some minor funding announcements began to trickle in. Nothing like what is needed, but a start.

For the first time ever we have a pot that can help countries to rebuild and recover in the aftermath of climate disasters.

We now need to see much more finance, and for the World Bank that was controversially agreed as host, to fix its ways of working so that it can deliver funds directly to the communities in need.

9. Thank civil society for the focus on fossil fuels  

We have civil society to thank for the focus and immense pressure on fossil fuels at Cop28. Thousands of organisations strategically echoed the call together for a fossil fuel phase out through their lobbying, networking, stunts and media work, until this became the one big demand that everyone came to expect from Cop.

Although we didn’t get the language we needed, the call to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ would not have happened without civil society.

10.Finance and fairness will be the goals at Cop29 

Ultimately, the Cop28 outcome is deeply unfair, putting an equal burden on rich and lower income countries, requiring no additional action or finance from those that have caused the climate crisis even as the global south bears the spiralling costs of a warming planet.

Cop29 in Azerbaijan is set to agree a new global target on climate finance. Already we know that rich counties want to avoid doing their fair share.

Instead of actually providing grants, they’ll try to claim that loans should count as climate finance, that their own corporations’ activities should count as climate finance, and that their purchasing of carbon offsets should also count.

All of that will not only undercut real finance outcomes, but will deepen rich countries’ neo-colonial grip on the global south, exploiting and exporting yet more profit, under a climate mask.   

But if we – all of us – are to have a chance of a safe future, we need the richest countries to move beyond narrowly defined set of self-interests at climate talks, and provide the real finance that can put us on a path for real cooperation and global climate action.

There is much to do to change the terrain of what is possible. But we need to work together to get the public and the politicians on board with the idea that if we want to save our planet from self-destruction, we may actually need to cover the costs.

Teresa Anderson is Action Aid’s global lead on climate justice

The post We have to fix unfairness: Ten takeaways from Cop28 appeared first on Climate Home News.

But while wealthy countries celebrated the agreement, developing and particularly African countries denounced the absence of a target to provide financial and other forms of support.

After the deal was agreed, Senegal’s negotiator Madeline Diouf Sarr, who chairs the group of the world’s poorest countries, said that the outcome “is full of eloquent language but regrettably devoid of actionable commitments”.

No ‘phase-out’, but Dubai deal puts oil and gas sector on notice

Morocco’s head of delegation Bouzekri Razi warned the plenary room that “these commitments will remain undelivered unless supported by additional finance”.

Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen called it “ambitious” and Germany’s development minister Svenja Schulze described it as “comprehensive”.

Glasgow to Dubai

At Cop26 in Glasgow, governments agreed on a two-year programme to elaborate a global goal on adaptation.

Imane Saidi, from the Morocco-based climate think tank Imal, told Climate Home it was supposed to be the adaptation equivalent of the target to limit global warming to 1.5C.

Over the two years since Glasgow, negotiators have travelled around the world to hold eight gruelling meetings on what the goal should be.

Developing countries wanted specific targets on climate issues. For example, to reduce adverse climate impacts on agricultural production by 50% by 2030.

Developing countries wanted to stick to procedural commitments, like governments filing national adaptation plans by a certain date.

“We are hesitant on quantification,” a developed country negotiator told Climate Home last month. “You cannot copy and paste the template of emission reduction targets – it doesn’t really work for adaptation.”

Carbon credits talks collapse at Cop28 over integrity concerns

In this battle, developing countries scored a procedural win. Governments agreed at Cop28 to set targets to protect food and water security, health, nature, livelihoods, infrastructure and cultural heritage.

Another two-year negotiation will be held to quantify those targets by Cop30 in Brazil.

No support

But developed countries did not relent on providing finance, technology and training to help developing countries achieve these goals. Because of this, Saidi told Climate Home the text is like “a car without wheels”.

While Monday’s draft said governments would “commit” to closing the gap in adaptation finance – which the United Nations says is $194-366 billion a year – the final text only “seeks” to close this gap.

Developed countries promised two years ago to double their adaptation finance on 2019 levels by 2025 to around $40 billion. They resisted pressure to draw up a “roadmap” on meeting this goal, instead only agreeing to be “urge[d]” to provide a less forceful “report”.

Emilie Beauchamp, who followed the talks for the International Institute for Sustainable Development, told Climate Home “there has been an unequal dynamic to the negotiation” and governments refused to compromise.

Saidi, who was part of the Moroccan delegation and present in meetings of the African and Arab groups, said that developing countries long resisted the text but “at one point you just have to accept what they’re giving you”. But, she added, “developed countries will also have to accept that the trust is not there”.

This article was amended on 13/12/23 to change “developing” to “developed” in the last sentence

The post ‘Car without wheels’: Adaptation playbook lacks finance target appeared first on Climate Home News.

The final text for the first time mentions all fossil fuels, “calling on” parties to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner”.

Most delegates were satisfied with the result, with no country opposing the text in the final plenary. Vulnerable nations and some observers had mixed feelings.

No ‘phase-out’, but Dubai deal puts oil and gas sector on notice

EU: Beginning of the end of fossil fuels

EU chief negotiator Wopke Hoekstra told a press huddle outside the plenary that the global stocktake text, the main outcome from Cop28, was “truly consequential” and the “beginning of the end of fossil fuels”.

The EU’s Wopke Hoekstra describes this text as “truly consequential” and “the beginning of the end of fossil fuels” #Cop28 pic.twitter.com/aZxYYubcsO

— Joe Lo is @joeloclimate@bsky.social (@joeloyo) December 13, 2023

Aosis: Litany of loopholes

Anne Rasmussen, representing the alliance of small island states (Aosis), told the plenary:

“In terms of safeguarding 1.5C in a meaningful way, the language is certainly a step forward, it speaks to transitioning away from fossil fuels in a way the process has not done before. But we must note the text does not speak specifically to fossil fuel phase-out and mitigation in a way that is in fact the step change that is needed. It is incremental and not transformational.

“We see a litany of loopholes in this text that are a major concern to us.”

Tears flowed and a lengthy rousing ovation during final plenary just now for AOSIS Chair #AnneRasmussen, as she delivered an emotional response filled with unsparing observations about the final outcomes from #COP28UAE pic.twitter.com/YEt4sgIvB0

— AOSIS (@AOSISChair) December 13, 2023

US: Strong messages

US climate envoy John Kerry told the plenary:

“While nobody here will see their views completely reflected in a consensus document of so many nations, the fact is that this document sends very strong messages to the world.

“First, the document highlights that we have to adhere to keep 1.5C within reach. That is the North star. We therefore must do those things necessary to keep 1.5C. Everything we can to achieve this goal.

“In particular it states that our next [national climate plans] will be aligned with limiting warming to 1.5C. I think everyone has to agree this is much stronger and clearer as a call on 1.5C than we have ever heard before.”

Saudi Arabia: Silence

The Saudi delegation does not join in the applause as #Cop28 president says “We have language on fossil fuel for the first time ever” pic.twitter.com/wv2qa7zqje

— Joe Lo is @joeloclimate@bsky.social (@joeloyo) December 13, 2023

UAE: Different sort of Cop

Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber told the final plenary in Dubai:

“It is an enhanced, balanced, but make no mistake historic package to accelerate climate action. It is the ‘UAE Consensus’. Many said this could not be done.

“But when I spoke to you at the very start of Cop, I promised a different sort of Cop. A Cop that brought everyone together, private and public sectors, civil society and faith leaders, youth and indigenous peoples. Everyone came together from day one. Everyone united, acted and delivered.”

France: Still work ahead

French minister for energy transition Agnès Pannier-Runacher told reporters outside the plenary:

“We need to be very cautious and to report and make sure that every country improves their [national climate plans] and that, at the same time, we are going to put the money on the field so that developing countries can do their own transitions and adaptations. That is what is at stake today — how will the finance come to the most vulnerable countries?”

India: Outcomes backed by finance

Indian minister for environment, forest and climate change Bhupender Yadav said in a statement:

“India urges that the determination shown at Cop is also substantiated with means to bring it to fruition. This must be based on the principles of equity and climate justice, which is respectful of national circumstances, and where the developed countries take the lead based on their historical contributions.”

Today, the world came together at #COP28 in Dubai, UAE to display positive collaboration and camaraderie for an action-oriented approach towards a greener and healthier planet.

Through its G20 Presidency steered by PM Shri @narendramodi ji, India displayed the resolve to make… pic.twitter.com/eC07BAr4Fy

— Bhupender Yadav (@byadavbjp) December 13, 2023

Least developed countries: We expected more

Madeleine Diouf Sarr, head of climate change at the ministry of environment of Senegal and chair of the least developed countries group, said in a statement:

“This outcome is not perfect, we expected more. It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis.”

“Next year will be critical in deciding the new climate finance goal, which must be informed by this global stocktake, and must close the vast gaps that have been identified. To respond to the global stocktake, the new goal must reflect the full needs of our countries to address climate change, including the costs to mitigate, to adapt, and to address loss and damage.”

Colombia: Gas colonising decarbonisation

Colombian environment minister Susana Muhamad told the plenary:

“Loopholes (in the final text) have risks and the risks can undermine the political will. The transition fuels could end up colonising the space of decarbonisation. Right now, in the financial segment of the text, we don’t have still the economic structure required for this deep transition — which is not only an energy transition but is fundamentally a whole-of-society economic transition.”

La transición para dejar los combustibles fósiles, debe complementarse con un Tratado que entregue reglas claras de financiamiento para los países, pero además respetando los bosques y las comunidades. ¡Nuestra lucha por la justicia climática y equidad, sigue! #COP28 pic.twitter.com/37rn1AzHFa

— Susana Muhamad (@susanamuhamad) December 13, 2023

Germany: Multilateralism delivers

German state secretary and special envoy for international climate action Jennifer Morgan said in a statement:

“Today the world adopted a historic decision that is strongly guided by the 1.5C limit. There is an unmistakable signal that the future is renewables and not fossil fuels. For the first time, countries made the decision to transition away from fossil fuels, accelerating action in this critical decade.

“Today we showed that multilateralism delivers. Tomorrow we drive these decisions forward. We must be fast. We must be deliberate, with ambition and solidarity for climate justice.”

Bolivia: Rich nations must step up

Bolivian chief negotiator Diego Pacheco told the plenary:

“We cannot support outcomes that mean that the world will enter a new era of implementation of the Paris Agreement without equity, without common but differentiated responsibilities, without a differentiation between developed and developing countries and without means of implementation and concrete financing for developing countries.

Developed countries have not decided to take the initiative of leading the fight against the climate crisis and this is jeopardising the lives of people in our part of the world. We say a great deal about 1.5C and science, but developed countries that have plans to expand their fossil fuels going up to 2050 are running counter to science itself, the very science they talk about.”

UN chief: Progress gathering pace

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres told the Cop28 plenary:

“For the first time, the outcome recognizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels – after many years in which the discussion of this issue was blocked. ”

“To those who opposed a clear reference to a phase out of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable whether they like it or not. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.

Of course, timelines, pathways and targets will differ for countries at different levels of development. But all efforts must be consistent with achieving global net zero by 2050 and preserving the 1.5 degree goal. And developing countries must be supported every step of the way.”

John Kerry says that the US and China “both intend – based on many initiatives set out in Global Stocktake – we will again update our long term strategies and we invite other parties to join us in doing so” #Cop28

— Joe Lo is @joeloclimate@bsky.social (@joeloyo) December 13, 2023

WRI: More finance needed

Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO, World Resources Institute said in a statement:

“Fossil fuels finally faced a reckoning at the UN climate negotiations after three decades of dodging the spotlight. This historic outcome marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. Despite immense pressure from oil and gas interests, high ambition countries courageously stood their ground and sealed the fate of fossil fuels.

“Now a critical test is whether far more finance is mobilized for developing countries to help make the energy transition possible.”

The #COP28 #GlobalStocktake text was gaveled through without any comments allowed from Parties. The text is severely lacking in assurances for climate finance, and equity – indications that developed countries must take the lead – is almost entirely missing.

— Brandon Wu (@brandoncwu) December 13, 2023

Climate Action Network: Marred by loopholes

Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International said in a statement:

“After decades of evasion, Cop28 finally cast a glaring spotlight on the real culprits of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. A long-overdue direction to move away from coal, oil, and gas has been set. Yet, the resolution is marred by loopholes that offer the fossil fuel industry numerous escape routes, relying on unproven, unsafe technologies.

The hypocrisy of wealthy nations, particularly the USA, as they continue to expand fossil fuel operations massively while merely paying lip service to the green transition, stands exposed.”

OPEC: oil and gas have critical role

Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), and Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General for OPEC said in a statement:

“The oil and gas industry will play a constructive and critical role in sustainable development and poverty eradication, while contributing to a just, orderly and inclusive energy transitions, in particular through enhancing efficiencies and developing and deploying advanced technologies, such as carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). They stressed that continued investment in oil and natural gas is essential to meet future demand and ensure global market stability.”

Power Shift Africa: Genie is out of the bottle

Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa, said in a statement:

“For the first time in three decades of climate negotiations, the words ‘fossil fuels’ have made it into a Cop outcome. We are finally naming the elephant in the room. The genie is never going back into the bottle. Future Cops will only turn the screw even more on dirty energy.”

“Finance is where the whole energy transition plan will stand or fall. We also need much more financial support to help vulnerable people in some of the poorest countries to adapt to the impacts of climate breakdown.”

CEEW: Disappointed on all fronts

Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water, said in a statement:

“This Cop has largely disappointed on all fronts. It hasn’t sufficiently raised climate ambition, held historical polluters accountable, or established effective mechanisms to finance climate resilience and a just low-carbon transition for the global south.

“While the operationalisation of the loss and damage fund on the first day marked a noteworthy success, subsequent developments revealed a discordant trajectory. The global stocktake’s final text lacked the candid acknowledgment of problems and the teeth required to fight them.”

350: Partial win for people power

May Boeve, executive director of activist network 350.org, said in a statement:

“People power has propelled us to the doorstep of history but leaders have stopped short of entering the future we need.

“It is frustrating that thirty years of campaigning managed to get ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ in the Cop text, but it is surrounded by so many loopholes that it has been rendered weak and ineffectual.”

Climate Analytics: Weak energy package

Bill Hare, climate scientist and CEO of Climate Analytics, said in a statement:

“The energy section is weak and simply doesn’t have enough hard commitments to bring the 1.5C warming limit within reach this decade, and there’s no commitment to peak emissions by 2025. The goal of tripling renewables and doubling of efficiency is very welcome, but will need hard work to implement.

“The agreement opens the doors to false solutions like carbon capture and storage at scale, and the reference to transition fuels is code for gas, which is absolutely not a transitional fuel. This has been promoted by LNG and fossil gas exporters.”

The post Dubai deal: Ministers and observers react to the UAE consensus appeared first on Climate Home News.

The “UAE consensus” did not go so far as to call for a “phase-out” as more than a hundred countries wanted. It settled on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”.

Still, after coal was targeted for a “phase-down” two years ago in Glasgow, it extended that scrutiny to the oil and gas sector.

Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber brought down the gavel on a deal late Wednesday morning, one day into overtime. “We have language on fossil fuel for the first time ever,” he said, to applause.

One delegation not joining in the ovation was Saudi Arabia. Oil-exporting states fought hard against the phase-out language that appeared in earlier drafts.

Many emerging economies were also wary of signing up to quit fossil fuels, given limited finance on the table to support cleaner development paths.

Dubai deal: Ministers and observers react to the UAE consensus

Samoa complained they were not yet in the room when the deal was adopted. Small island states had pleaded for a rapid fossil fuel phase-out to hold global warming to 1.5C, seen as critical for their survival.

Excerpt from the global stocktake text agreed at Cop28 addressing fossil fuels

The energy package included a push to triple renewable capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. It called for accelerating the implementation of technologies like carbon capture, utilization and storage, “particularly in hard-to-abate sectors”.

Controversially, it cited a role for “transitional fuels”, which can be taken to mean fossil gas.

Attention now turns to the next round of national climate plans which, the deal says, should align with limiting global warming to 1.5C. But the pathway to do so is vanishingly small.

The post No ‘phase-out’, but Dubai deal puts oil and gas sector on notice appeared first on Climate Home News.

The presidency has made a first pass at a landing ground for the global stocktake text – the main outcome of the summit. People hate it.

Small island states slammed it as “a death warrant”, their spokesperson getting teary. For the EU it contains elements that are “simply unacceptable”. Campaigners variably described it as “a scandal”, “divorced from reality” and “a dog’s dinner”.

“This obsequious draft reads as if Opec dictated it word for word,” Al Gore posted on social media.

US envoy John Kerry was more restrained. He posted on social media that “the mitigation section, including the issue of fossil fuels, needs to be substantially strengthened, and the finance section contains inaccuracies that must be fixed”.

The energy package is evoking the strongest emotions. Instead of an urgent action agenda, it has become an a-la-carte menu.

To reduce emission countries are offered eight options. These “could include” a reduction of “consumption and production of fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner” to achieve “net zero by before, or around 2050”. Note “phase-out” is gone.

If that is too hard to digest, pick a lighter dish: tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency, or, more controversially, using “low carbon fuels” (code for fossil gas) and “low emissions technologies” like carbon capture and storage.

European and small island states are vowing to stay as long as it takes to deliver an outcome in line with 1.5C. They say many Latin American and African countries are with them. US and China have a critical bridging role, observers said.

The latest headlines

• Why didn’t China and India sign Cop28 tripling renewables pledge?
• What is Alterra, the UAE’s $30 billion green investment fund?
• Adaptation playbook is the true test of Cop28 for world’s vulnerable – Mohamed Adow, Power Shift Africa

Adaptation chasm remains

After two years of unproductive talks, the Cop28 presidency has taken the global goal on adaptation (GGA) text into its own hands.  

But it seems not to have succeeded where countries failed. One developing country negotiator said last night “a majority of developing countries think it is worse than what we had already”. 

There is still no permanent agenda item on GGA at future Cops, risking it falling off the radar. While finance is mentioned in many places, it does not make it into the targets section. 

One problem is the text firmly “decides” to do things like plan and monitor. But only “urges” governments to do things like protect the food and water supply – the stuff that actually matters.   

The new text “commits to close the adaptation finance gap” although it doesn’t specify who should close this gap. 

This ambiguity is “unacceptable”, said Mokoena France, negotiator for the least developed countries bloc. “It subtly shifts the responsibility away from developed countries, contrary to the established principles of historical responsibility.” 

The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that gap is $194-366 billion per year. That makes the doubling adaptation finance to $40bn or so look like pocket change. 

The timeline has changed from 2030 to “2030 and beyond”, which France said “dilutes the urgency and ambition needed”. 

Heads of delegations met with the presidency late last night, with activists outside the doors. We’ll find out today if they’ve got any closer to a landing ground. 

At the “people’s plenary” on Monday, there were speeches from youth and labour representatives. The most emotional moments came in response to the Palestinian co-chair Haneen Jarrar, who appealed for a ceasefire, saying “there is no climate justice without human rights” (Photo: Flickr/Cop28/Kiara Worth)

Opec vs Boga

Some 600km away in Doha, Qatar, Opec’s top Arab energy ministers gathered on Monday. The oil and gas cartel warned its members last week that pressure on a fossil fuel phase-out “may reach a tipping point”.

Ministers from Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman showed up to the meeting, as well as Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Bin Salman has been vocal about his opposition to a fossil fuel phase out, but Opec ministers did not announce an official position.

In the Cop28 venue, a small but determined band of countries were keeping that pressure up.

Ahead of the release of the presidency text, ministers from Colombia, Denmark, France and thirteen other members of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (Boga) signed a declaration. They “stand united” around a phase-out of all fossil fuels, while supporting oil-reliant developing countries.

“We must be realistic,” the declaration reads. “The fossil fuel sector will not unwind itself, nor can it, in isolation. We must plan for an orderly, just transition aligned with 1.5C, rather than risking the abrupt closure of uneconomic oil and gas production.”

In brief

Amazon oil – On Wednesday, Brazil will hold a mega-auction of 602 new oil and gas exploration areas, of which 21 are located within the Amazon and will affect at least 20 indigenous lands. NGOs sent an open letter calling for consistency with Cop28 positions.

Human rights concerns – During its Cop28 presidency, the UAE imposed 87 new terrorism charges on political prisoners, many of whom are recognised human rights defenders. Some of them were meant to be released this year after completing their sentence.

Coal sky-rocketing – India is planning to hike coal production to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030, despite the Cop26 commitment to phase down new unabated coal. That’s up from 900 million tonnes in 2022-23.

Got beef – Campaigners have accused the FAO of lacking ambition in its roadmap for transforming food systems. The Climate Land Ambition and Rights Alliance criticised the plan’s target of reducing emissions intensity from livestock (instead of gross emissions reductions) and its silence on agroecology.

Dirty cooling – The Cop28 venue, ExpoCity Dubai, is being cooled with potent greenhouse gases and inefficient technology, according to the Environmental Investigation Agency. The refrigerants in four buildings alone would have a warming impact equivalent to 1,000 tonnes of CO2, the agency calculated.

Green debt swaps – Colombia, Kenya and France have commissioned an “expert review” on debt, nature and climate, which would provide international policy recommendations to help developing countries protect nature while addressing debt.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Presidency draft text draws angry response appeared first on Climate Home News.

Then last Saturday in Dubai, a much bigger group of nations signed a similar pledge. Over 120 countries gave the document their signature but G20 nations like China, India and Indonesia were not among them.

That’s despite China dominating the renewables supply chain and the International Energy Agency forecasting that both China and India are already going to double their renewables by 2027, putting them on course to triple capacity by 2030 without any extra effort. So why the reluctance?

Well, the Cop28 pledge came in a package with anti-coal language and a more challenging target to double energy efficiency, with no quantified finance target to match. Experts told Climate Home major emerging economies were concerned about costs and reluctant to make commitments outside the formal UN climate process.

Coal and costs

Unlike the G20 agreement, the Cop28 pledge calls on signatories to “end the continued investment in unabated new coal-fired power plants, which is incompatible with efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C”.

Between them, the four G20 nations that didn’t sign the Cop28 pledge are building over four-fifths of the world’s new unabated coal-fired power plants, according to Global Energy Monitor.

“That could be why large emerging economies are concerned about the renewable energy declaration because it is tied to coal-based power generation,” said Centre for Science and Environment researcher Avantika Goswami.

What is Alterra, the UAE’s $30 billion green investment fund?

While the pledge does not require any individual country to triple their own renewable capacity, a source familiar with the Indonesian government’s position said it feared it will pressure them to do so.

For Indonesia, this could require early closure of coal-fired power plants and investment in grid stability in the Java-Bali area. “Both implies increasing financial burden to [state-owned energy company] PLN and to the government,” they said. “The reason that this pledge doesn’t come with financial and technical support has made Indonesia reluctant to support.”

The Asia Society’s climate lead Li Shuo told Climate Home that China would struggle to meet the target to double energy efficiency by 2030, which was not in the G20 agreement or in the US-China Sunnylands agreement.

Energy efficiency is calculated by dividing the size of an economy by its energy consumption and China’s economic growth has slowed down in recent years, making the target harder to reach.

Negotiating position

Li said that China “has not been a fan of side deals and declarations at the [UN climate talks]. They often feel these deals deviate from the [UN climate convention] and Paris Agreement and may be held against them in the future”.

Joyce Lee, policy director at the Global Wind Energy Council said that, as the pledge was launched at the start of the Cop28 climate talks “there’s a lot of public posturing”.

“In a negotiation dynamic, you don’t put yourself too close to where your ultimate position might be at the outset,” she said.

She added that in these countries “there’s a feeling that they’re doing a lot already on [reducing emissions]” and “may even be doing more than their fair share” given that they’ve contributed less to historic emissions than wealthy nations.

The post Why didn’t China and India sign Cop28 tripling renewables pledge? appeared first on Climate Home News.

They all referred to a “phase out” of fossil fuels, not “phase down”. That’s largely because petrostates were backing “no text” and refusing to engage further.

As it becomes clear that won’t fly, the next version of the text today may contain weaker compromise language.

To try and break the deadlock, the presidency convened a majlis, which can mean a sitting room or a council in many Islamic countries. Sultan Al Jaber urged ministers sat in a circle around him to speak “heart to heart”.

Colombia, the darling of campaigners as the biggest fossil fuel producer committed to a national phase-out, talked about being confronted with “the reality of power”. It took a hit to its credit rating and the peso dropped. The minister pleaded for international economic reforms to support the transition.

Bolivia called out the hypocrisy of the US, Australia, Norway and Canada. All are planning to increase their oil and gas production by 2030 except Norway, which is planning to reduce it very slowly.

Saudi Arabia appealed for a focus on emissions, not energy sources.

But it’s the swing votes that matter. India and Russia didn’t speak. China didn’t support or oppose fossil fuel phase-out, just pleaded for a “balanced” text, with finance for developing countries, and for developed countries to go first and fastest in the climate “marathon”.

Norway said any language needs to be compatible with 1.5C. Australia used a footie analogy to defend “unabated” – the contentious loophole for carbon capture and storage.

The UK called for “guardrails” ensuring abatement means a lot of carbon captured not just a bit. The EU took a stronger stance against “unabated”.

The latest headlines

• What is Alterra, the UAE’s $30 billion green investment fund?
• Adaptation playbook is the true test of Cop28 for world’s vulnerable – Mohamed Adow, Power Shift Africa
• Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks

Fears mount over carbon trading rules

The US and the EU have been locking horns over a mechanism for countries to bilaterally exchange carbon credits and meet their climate plans.

Marathon negotiations over article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement were in full swing at the time of writing, with heated debate over oversight and transparency measures.

According to observers, the latest draft closely reflects the US’ desire for light-touch regulations. A group led by the EU and including African and island nations is incensed. They want tighter controls to ensure that credits traded between countries actually reduce emissions without causing other environmental or social issues.

“The text is extremely weak and disappointing,” Jonathan Crook of Carbon Market Watch told Climate Home. “All of the positive elements for transparency and accountability have been removed, in favour of a highly minimalist, no-frills approach.”

The draft includes strong confidentiality provisions making it virtually impossible for anyone, outside countries striking a deal, to see the terms and conditions of the trade, observers said. Their fear is that such mechanism could effectively become the dumping ground for junk credits.

Countries that have already struck preliminary deals are watching developments closely.

Controversial Emirati startup Blue Carbon is aiming to trade credits under the mechanism from several African and Caribbean nations.

Switzerland signed its first bilateral agreement with Peru back in 2020, while Singapore inked a deal with Papua New Guinea on Friday. They are itching to turn words into practice.

Private sector operators also favour a light-touch approach. The text is “a step in the right direction, preserving the flexibility for parties to cooperate… in different ways,” said Margaret Kim, CEO of Gold Standard, a leading offsets certifier in the voluntary market.

In brief

Adaptation playbook – A text on the framework for the global goal on adaptation has finally materialised. Developing countries are asking once again: where is the money? There’s no clear mention of finance in the targets. Rich countries want to keep it that way, kicking those discussions to next year.

Third of the job – If Cop28 pledges are implemented in full, the world will shave off a third of the emissions it needs by 2030 to get the world on a path compatible with limiting warming to 1.5C. That’s the judgement of the International Energy Agency on pledges like tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency and tackling emissions from oil and gas production.

Food and farming – The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation has launched its two-year roadmap on transforming agri-food systems. This is to lead to national action plans at Cop30 in Brazil.

Peace Cop? – Gulshan Akhundova tells Climate Home she and fellow Azeri climate campaigners are excited for Cop29 and hope it will help bring piece to the region and bring cooperation between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia on climate change.

Shrinking Caspian – Kazakhstan’s climate envoy Zulfiya Suleimanova told Climate Home she hopes Cop29 will bring attention to Central Asia’s climate issues. With Azerbaijan, they share the Caspian Sea, which is shrinking because of climate change. Kazakhstan’s water-supplying glaciers are melting and it is suffering heatwaves and wildfires.

Dates for your diary – Cop29 will be from 11-22 November 2024 and Cop30 will be 10-21 November 2025, according to new draft texts. Both begin on a Monday and aim to end on a Friday.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Majlis brings fossil fuel views into the open appeared first on Climate Home News.

This global goal is a playbook for how the world is going to adapt to a climate that is changing rapidly and will continue to change, even if we ended fossil fuel use today. Across the world millions of people, most of whom are least responsible for carbon emissions, are attempting to adapt their lives and livelihoods to a distorted climate.

This adaptation playbook is about more than money. It covers adaptation plans for a host of sectors, including farming, nature, health, water and transport among others. To be useful, this playbook needs a series of targets to plan actions, track investments and assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures and spending. These metrics need to specify what changes are needed to be in line with the science, by when and how to measure progress.

Funding gap

Although it isn’t just about money, funding is important and severely lacking. The goal for 2023 was to raise $300m for the Adaptation Fund, but at Cop28 we’ve only seen $169m in pledges, a mere 56% of the intended amount.

This is particularly galling considering that only last month, the UN’s Environment Programme published its Adaptation Gap report which calculates the difference between the world’s adaptation need and the amount of finance that has been committed. It found that this gap stands at around $387 billion. This is 10-18 times the actual finance flows to the countries and 50% more than the previous estimate.

Considering emissions are still going up, it’s a travesty that adaptation spending is falling. We are on course for a humanitarian crisis if this adaptation funding doesn’t match the rise in emissions.  And adaptation finance is great value for money.  As Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley pointed out at Cop28, every $1 invested in adaptation saves $7 in loss and damage.

For example, small-scale family farms are especially vulnerable and need urgent scaling up of adaptation finance; 2.5 billion people rely on them for a livelihood. They produce a third of the world’s food and as much as half of the calories consumed globally but receive just 0.3% of climate finance.

US blocking

The problem is that here in Dubai, rich countries, especially the US, are blocking progress on the adaptation playbook. To some degree that’s understandable. It is rich, high emitting countries like the US that need to contribute most to adaptation funding and take responsibility for the climate harm they have caused and continue to cause.

But by dragging their feet, these countries are playing games with people’s lives. The adaptation talks at Cop28 are crucial as we’re not going to reduce emissions fast enough and therefore do actually need to tackle the impacts of climate change. We can’t just settle for vague and aspirational objectives, we need a concrete plan that spells out how adaptation will be implemented for the people that need it most.

African countries are the biggest cheerleaders for adaptation. It is Africans who are facing some of the most damaging impacts from the climate crisis. It’s no wonder that Africa’s chief negotiator in Dubai said agreement in Dubai on adaptation was a matter of life and death.

The Cop28 host nation’s close ties with the fossil fuel industry understandably makes for an easy story, but when it comes to whether this Cop did enough to help the world’s climate vulnerable, it will be on whether it delivers strong language on a robust global response to the adaptation crisis that will be the real test.

Mohamed Adow is the founder and director of Power Shift Africa

The post Adaptation playbook is the true test of Cop28 for world’s vulnerable appeared first on Climate Home News.

The big-ticket item in Dubai is the framework for the global goal on adaptation (GGA), a two-year-long exercise to turn the vague provisions of the Paris Agreement into something more concrete. Many hope clear definitions and targets will unlock money for adaptation that has been chronically underfunded.

But the 134-strong group of developing nations known as the G77 is divided.

The hardliners are the Arab group led by Saudi Arabia and the like-minded developing countries (LMDC) spearheaded by China. They have refused to work on any text that does not explicitly mention “common but differentiated responsibilities”, four sources in the room told Climate Home. Putting that in would trigger an automatic rejection from developed countries.

The least developed countries and small island states are increasingly frustrated.

“We’ve invested so much time and energy in this process,” a negotiator from a vulnerable country told Climate Home. “We’re now facing a very scary scenario: either no decision at all or a take-it-or-leave-it text creating a very symbolic framework.”

Meanwhile the mitigation work programme has made negligible progress on long-term emissions cutting measures. Again, LMDC and Arab states engaged in what two negotiators described to Climate Home as “clear obstruction tactics”, moving one islander to tears.

Some negotiators and observers told Climate Home they fear adaptation is being held hostage to talks over a possible fossil fuel phase-out.

An LMDC spokesperson rejected that interpretation. “We’ve been negotiating in good faith,” they said. “These are substantive matters with groups wanting to reopen texts that have already been agreed.”

Technical negotiations are due to finish today, with text expected on the adaptation goal and bilateral carbon trading rules.

The latest headlines

• Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks
• Dutch initiative must turn the tables on fossil fuel subsidy reform – Ivetta Gerasimchuk, IISD
• To land fossil phase-out deal, rich nations must add fairness – Andreas Sieber, 350

Netherlands leads subsidy crackdown

Two months ago, thousands of climate activists braved water cannons to block a highway in Dutch capital The Hague in protest at fossil fuel subsidies.

Today, Dutch climate minister Rob Jetten announced twelve countries had signed up to his club to get rid of fossil fuel subsidies.

Those nations include nine Europeans – including France and Spain – Canada, Costa Rica and Antigua and Barbuda. Jetten said others are “sure” to join.

There have been many promises in the past on this, dating back to the G20 in Pittsburgh in 2009. So, IISD’s Ivetta Gerasimchuk writes, the follow-through is vital.

The countries have signed up to developing an agreed methodology and drawing up inventories of subsidies by Cop29. And an annual Cop dialogue on the issue.

Jetten tempered expectations, claiming that “half of all subsidies are tied up in international agreements” and therefore need cooperation to scrap.

And removing subsidies which make everyday things like driving, cooking and heating cheap can be unpopular. After a rise in the cost of driving sparked the “gilets jaunes” protests in 2018, French climate minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher is well aware of this.

She told the press conference today that this must work “for the planet of course” but also “for the people, for the economy, for the social equity and just transition”.

The only developing country minister present was Antigua and Barbuda’s Gaston Browne. He told Climate Home “we burn gasoline and diesel but even if even if it is more expensive that might very well serve as an incentive to go quickly to renewable energy”.

A network of at least 1900 bots on X (formerly Twitter) are promoting Cop28 in English and Arabic, according to analysis by Marc Owen Jones, professor at Hamad bin Khalifa University in Qatar. The bots praise the UAE and Cop president Sultan Al Jaber as climate heroes.

All mouth, no trousers – Analysis by Climate Action Tracker shows that from the flurry of pledges signed in the first week of Cop28, few have the “ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability” needed to keep align with 1.5C. Around a quarter of the emissions reductions promised are additional and achievable, it estimates.

Two conventions, one statement — For the first time, the UN climate and biodiversity conventions joined forces on a common agenda. China, as the presidency behind the Kunming-Montreal nature deal, cosigned a vague pledge with the UAE and 16 other countries to mobilise finance and align planning between nature and climate.

China backs phase-out? – China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua told Reuters that success at Cop28 will depend on whether countries can agree on phasing out fossil fuels. In a pre-Cop statement with the US, China fell short of calling for a phase out.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Adaptation stalemate jeopardises Cop28 outcome appeared first on Climate Home News.

An avalanche of public money still supports production and consumption of coal, oil and gas, despite multiple pledges to phase out such subsidies.

The Netherlands is leading a “first-mover” initiative at Cop28 climate talks to tackle the issue, following a national assessment that its fossil fuel subsidies amounted €39.7 – 46.4 billion in 2022, and thousands of climate activists protesting in The Hague.

Two G20 countries (Canada and France) and ten smaller economies joined the launch of the coalition in Dubai on 9 December.

This is welcome, but it risks getting mired in the same methodological rationalizations that have always held back action.

The coalition has signed up to improve “transparency”, identify “barriers” and establish a “dialogue” to reform fossil fuel subsidies. Instead, they should change the defaults and push for a blanket phaseout of all government support to fossil fuels, unless subsidizers can prove such measures address energy poverty or just transition better than any other readily available policy tool.

A trillion-dollar issue 

In 2022, public financial support for fossil fuels, in the form of subsidies, investments by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and lending from public financial institutions, exceeded $1.7 trillion globally — a record high according to IISD’s Burning Billions report.

Phasing out these subsidies is challenging because it cuts across all of the economy. It takes a whole-government commitment and broad-based support from various ministries, political groups, and businesses, not just diplomats and environment officials. For example, in the US, a subsidy reform package has been submitted by the Democratic party administration, then blocked by Congress many times.

There is a role for international cooperation on fossil fuel subsidy reform for two reasons. First, it is politically easier for some countries to make progress as a first movers’ collective than be “lone wolves”. Second, countries need expert advice and technical assistance for the reform design and implementation.

Credibility challenge after many failures

The new coalition members must up their game given the previous failures on fossil fuel subsidy reform commitments under G7, G20, and APEC (since 2009), Sustainable Development Goals, UNFCCC Cop26, and many other related efforts such as the Friends of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform, the Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), the ministerial statement at the WTO and the Global Biodiversity Framework.

To be credible reform champions, the new coalition members must take on commitments to phase out subsidies to both production and consumption of fossil fuels by 2025 in the OECD countries, and by 2030 deadline in the non-OECD countries (reflective of the G7 commitment and SDG 12.c timelines, respectively). They must convert these commitments into specific national policy frameworks and include fossil fuel subsidy reform in their national climate plans by next year’s Cop29 summit.

Such a model is key to the success of the Clean Energy Transition Partnership, under which some of the same governments and other signatories agreed to implement domestic policies to stop international financing of fossil fuels within one year of joining.

Bold and targeted moves needed 

The Dutch initiative’s current focus on reforming tax cuts for aviation and shipping is novel, but reference to such agreements should not serve as a distraction from the reforms that must be undertaken at the national level.

For example, tax breaks and other subsidies for oil and gas exploration and production have no justification given the scientific consensus that there is no room for new oil, gas and coal developments in a Paris-aligned world.

The countries that have reformed fossil fuel subsidies in past decades did not do it because of international climate commitments. Rather it was driven by fiscal pressure including conditional loans from the IMF and the World Bank (the Dominican Republic, Egypt, or Ukraine) or the political will to diversify their energy mix and support domestic renewable energy (India).   

These and other examples show that fossil fuel subsidy reform efforts are most effective when countries commit to reinvesting a share of saved expenditures and generated revenues. This helps build public support for reform efforts and can address negative impacts of fossil fuel price increases on households. Members of the new coalition must commit to reinvesting subsidy reform savings and revenues generated from fossil fuel taxation to clean energy and just transition programs.

Ivetta Gerasimchuk is director of the energy programme, leading international strategy work at the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

The post Dutch initiative must turn the tables on fossil fuel subsidy reform appeared first on Climate Home News.

Because of conflict in the region, the group took much longer than usual to come to a decision. On Thursday, Armenia dropped its opposition to Azerbaijan’s bid as part of peace talks between the two.

Russia blocked any European Union member from hosting, which scuppered a Bulgarian bid. Serbia, Moldova and Armenia were also in contention.

E3G negotiations analyst Tom Evans described it as an “unusual and unexpected” choice because Azerbaijan “doesn’t have a long track record of diplomacy at the [UN climate arm]”.

Azerbaijan gets two-thirds of its revenue from oil and gas, one of the highest percentages in the world and more than the Cop28 host – the United Arab Emirates.

Authoritarian regime

The country has been ruled for 20 years by Ilham Aliyev, who took over as president from his father. According to Human Rights Watch, the government had at least 30 political dissidents in its prisons in 2022.

The campaign group said that restrictive laws continued to impede nongovernmental organizations from operating independently and that there are restrictions on media and systemic torture of prisoners.

The government has been keen in recent years to host high-profile international events, bringing the Europa League football final and Formula One Grand Prix to its capital Baku.

In 2020, Azerbaijan and its neighbour Armenia fought a six week war which killed thousands over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Last year, the government of Azerbaijan hired a British public relations firm to publicise their accusations that the government of Armenia had damaged the environment of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Experts told Climate Home News at the time that these claims were misleading, as the forests were depleted faster after Azerbaijan took charge, and that they had an “element of propaganda” to them.

The post Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks appeared first on Climate Home News.

Everything is still on the table.

On fossil fuels, there are four choices. All are anchored around a “phase out”, with reference, variously, to “the best available science”, 1.5C, the Paris Agreement, “unabated”, peak consumption, and net zero CO2 emissions.

None explicitly refers to justice, equity, or differentiated pathways for developed and developing countries, campaigners noted – which may be a sticking point for the latter group.

Like its previous iteration, every paragraph comes with a “no text” choice. It leaves the door open to binning the entire energy package, including the tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling of efficiency by 2030. That’s a possibility a group of countries, including Saudi Arabia, China, India and Iraq, floated two days ago.

Countries’ positions are still far apart, it was clear in a plenary on Friday morning.

Samoa, on behalf of small island states, not only pushed for a phase out, but an end to new investment in fossil fuel infrastructure – a Cop first.

Bolivia, on behalf of “like-minded” developing countries, and Saudi Arabia, on behalf of the Arab Group, said any agreement should focus on limiting emissions and not their sources. In a fiery speech, the Bolivian negotiator said his group would not “compromise our right to development”.

The most practical way to build a bridge is with finance, observers told Climate Home. Developing countries want to know money will be available to support an ambitious outcome.

Ministers, assemble

As usual, the Cop presidency has tasked pairs of developed and developing country ministers to chat with their peers and resolve the thorniest issues.

After hurrying through a back door from the plenary yesterday afternoon, Sultan Al Jaber lined up in the unimaginatively named press conference room 1 with his chosen eight.

Despite rumours of changes to the line-up, they are the same eight who have been coordinating talks since September – much longer than they’re usually assigned for.

Leading on the global stocktake are South Africa’s Barbara Creecy and Denmark’s Dan Jorgensen. Egypt’s Yasmine Fouad and Canada’s Steven Guilbeault lead on means of implementation – money, to you and me.

Singapore’s Grace Fu and Norway’s Espen Barth Eide will lead on mitigation while Chile’s Maisa Rojas and Australia’s Jennifer McAllister lead on adaptation.

The group are mainly veterans, having taken similar roles at Cop26 and Cop27. It includes two IPCC authors (Fouad and Rojas), a former rabble-rousing campaigner (Guilbeault) who has been to every Cop and an accountant who flew high in the corporate world before going into politics (Fu).

On top of this, the presidency has asked a number of nations including Canada to help him gather ideas on the most high profile issue – fossil fuel phase-out.

Beside his fellow ministers at the press conference, Jorgensen offered some motivational words. “Words on a piece of paper will not in itself save the climate, he said, “but if we agree, if we decide, we can make these words carry weight, make them instigate real change, and make a real difference.”

Activists to call for Gaza ceasefire

In Gaza, the Israeli military has now killed 17,000 people, a more than tenfold retaliation for the 1,200 Hamas killed in its 7 October incursion.

Israeli officials estimate a third of the dead in Gaza were combatants, meaning the majority of victims were civilians by any count.

In Dubai, activists want an end to the violence. They accuse the UN climate body (UNFCCC) of repressing their gestures of solidarity, with keffiyehs confiscated and Palestinian flags banned.

The head of War on Want Asad Rehman told reporters on Friday campaigners will hold a banner saying “ceasefire now, end occupation” at a march at 3.30pm today.

“If we’re going to be prevented of course that will be a serious problem,” Climate Action Network head Tasneem Essop said, wearing a keffiyeh and one of the lanyards the Palestinian pavilion are giving out in their national colours.

Rehman and Essop claimed the UNFCCC banned the phrase “ceasefire now” in demonstrations at the venue. A UNFCCC spokesperson denied this.

Waving any flag is prohibited by order of the UN Office of Safety and Security in New York. It made that directive on 7 October, the day Hamas attacked Israel.

Essop said that protesters will use the symbol of the watermelon instead – a fruit of black, white, red and green which has long been a stand-in for the Palestinian flag.

In brief

Put a lid on it – The Canadian government has proposed a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, which accounted for 28% of national emissions in 2021. The draft regulation needs parliamentary approval. Campaigners celebrated the move, while calling for tighter targets.

Corporate watch – Less than 10% of corporate delegates at Cop28 represent companies with science-based emissions targets, according to Influence Map. Ikea, Iberdrola and Unilever are among the climate leaders, while Gazprom, Adnoc, ExxonMobil and Toyota are the most misaligned companies with a major presence.

Paris anniversary present? – The Cop28 presidency is keen to finish on 12 December: the scheduled end date and precisely eight years after the Paris Agreement was adopted. It started cleanly, with no agenda fight. Can it be the first to end punctually since Cops were in single digits?

The post Cop28 bulletin: Text grows with everything still to play for appeared first on Climate Home News.

In these kind of talks just a couple of years ago, very few people at the table were able to even entertain conversations on the phasing out of fossil fuels.

But at the  outset of Cop28, 106 countries jointly advocated for the fast decline of fossil fuels, a notable increase from the 80 countries demanding the same at Cop27 in Sharm el Sheikh. Over 120 countries have so far committed to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. 

The energy transition has finally been dragged centre stage. The Overton window has shifted significantly, and this is in no small part thanks to the resolve and determination of global south negotiators and their allies in the movement for climate justice.

Adaptation and justice

If we land an ambitious energy package in Dubai, it will once again be thanks to climate vulnerable nations, namely small islands states and Latin American countries in the Ailac grouping.

Wealthy blocs like the European Union must urgently address the adaptation concerns voiced by groups like the African group.

Insisting that the just transition work program exclusively focuses on in-country workforce issues while disregarding the global inter-country dimension  is a pitfall that affluent nations must evade.

Negotiations for a global decision to phase out fossil fuels and a renewable energy target are above the paygrade of the mid-level diplomats that do the negotiating in the first week of Cops.

Ministers arriving today, at the start of the second week, is like Champions League football after watching non league.

As fossil fuel phase-out gathers steam, resistance builds

Like football, the higher league doesn’t always reflect a difference in the quality of performances, but the sophistication of tactics applied, and the stakes that are on the table. 

The Cop28 presidency will continue with a double layer of ministerial pairs between them and the energy negotiations, as Denmark and South Africa are facilitating discussions on the Global Stocktake. At the same time, discussions will be further outsourced to ministers from Singapore and Norway.

A significant portion of the UAE team comprises of Cop26 presidency staff, who were the first to apply a strategy of engaging countries in one-on-one negotiations rather than collective ones.

This approach undeniably furnishes the presidency with a knowledge advantage. The UAE could strike a backroom deal with big powers like the US and China rather than driving a transparent process and working with the champions of this process, the small island states and vulnerable countries to land the most ambitious outcome possible.

Different paces

Beyond navigating the broader landscape, achieving such an ambitious outcome demands a closer examination of critical issues within the substance of the energy package: Differentiation, urgency, and support.

At the heart of the fossil fuel phase-out and renewable energy target deal lies the need for fairness. This fairness must be reflected in language that unequivocally states developed countries take the lead, phasing out at a faster pace than lower income countries.

Currently, some developed nations propose a 2050 timeline for the energy transition, without a corresponding earlier hard timeline for developed countries – a clear incongruity. 

Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short

A potential solution involves introducing qualitative language emphasizing the leadership role of developed countries while respecting the distinct starting points of low-income nations.

Instead of a 2050 timeline, countries should prioritise immediate progress in this decade. Finally, the energy package necessitates an integrated support plan, acknowledging the investment and support requirements in the global south outside China.

It should establish processes to ensure necessary support, potentially including direct links to the new collective quantified goal on finance and Cop29.

EU and US action needed

Climate-vulnerable nations have once again demonstrated leadership, but a pivotal political question looms: Will some developed countries align with them and form a progressive coalition?

At Cop27 last year, a few countries — Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia — opposed language on the phase-out of all fossil fuels.

The Egyptian presidency at the time was complicit in hiding behind these blockers. The signals from Cop28 President Sultan Al Jaber are inconsistent at best.

So far, more countries than at Cop27 in Egypt have voiced support for phasing out fossil fuels, but closer coordination among those countries fighting for an ambitious energy outcome will be needed.

To achieve this, Europeans, especially, must be more forthcoming and move beyond mere lip service on adaptation and support for the energy transition. 

Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions

The global goal on adaptation remains a pressing concern, with negotiators making minimal progress. Ministers must transcend indicators and dimensions to expedite resilience preparedness.

This is EU negotiator Wopke Hoekstra’s first Cop. It will not only test his ambition but also his grasp of global climate politics and ability to collaborate with climate-vulnerable nations.

Positive actions could create a promising foundation, with the Canadian minister Steven Guilbeault expected to play a crucial role in fossil fuel discussions as a bridge builder.

A potential starting point for the US delegation would be to broaden their focus beyond coal to avoid alienating India, China, and other emerging economies.

Whether the European Union heeds the call of vulnerable nations will be a central question as we enter the decisive days. The prospect of bidding farewell to fossil fuels and embracing renewables gives real hope in our battle against climate chaos.

Andreas Sieber is the associate director of global policy & campaigns at 350.org.

The post To land fossil phase-out deal, rich nations must add fairness appeared first on Climate Home News.

Perhaps it’s inevitable that as Cops get bigger, the action is spread thinner.

It’s not just that the official negotiating agenda, since Paris, is increasingly dwarfed by the trade show.

On the sidelines too, there are only so many sectors you can announce new initiatives for. Only so many net zero targets. At this point, you get to the messy business of implementing them.

The global climate movement has come more single-minded than ever in its focus on a fast and fair fossil fuel phase-out. And it’s getting somewhere. A draft compromise text, for all its caveats, sticks with “phase out” not “phase down”.

But in the vast expanse of the Dubai Expo, that sense of purpose risks evaporating under the harsh desert sun. In a consensus-based process, petrostates could veto language that threatens their core business.

It might not matter if the deals being done on the sidelines were shifting the trillions of dollars needed into renewables and resilience. And maybe they are – not every transaction is press released.

It hardly looks that way from the UAE’s official – and therefore generous – estimate of funds mobilised though: $83 billion.

For context, that’s just over half of the $150bn Adnoc is forecast to invest in oil and gas production this decade, according to Global Witness. Adnoc disputed the analysis, but has never denied it is increasing production. And it’s just one of many oil majors.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is promoting oil-guzzling vehicles across Africa, to prop up future demand.

To make phase-out stick, money needs to flow in the right direction. As ministers arrive to narrow down some 90 options in the global stocktake text, that is fundamental.

The latest headlines

• As fossil fuel phase-out gathers steam, resistance builds
• Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions – Laurence Tubiana and Emmanuel Guerin, European Climate Foundation
• Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short

In brief

Another petrostate Cop? – Armenia said today that it would support Azerbaijan’s bid to host Cop29, as part of peace talks between the two enemies. That removes the major block to Azerbaijan’s candidacy. Azerbaijan gets two-thirds of its revenue from oil and gas, has a bad human rights record and has used expensive PR firms to weaponise environmental issues in its conflict with Armenia.

Putin in parallel – Russian president Vladimir Putin visited the UAE to talk trade and oil with Mohamed bin Zayed. His motorcade and cavalry escort stayed well clear of Cop28. The International Criminal Court has an arrest warrant for Putin over alleged war crimes but the UAE does not recognise its jurisdiction.

You raise me up – Ten multilateral development banks announced they will work together to support country platforms. These coordinate private and public finance around nationally-led investment programmes, for example coal-to-clean plans. This ODI blog explains.

Joined-up diplomacy – The German government has adopted its first strategy on climate foreign policy, aiming to bring trade and economic diplomacy in line with a 1.5C global warming pathway. It will expand a network of core climate embassies and hold regular coordinating meetings between ministers.

Mind the policy gap – UK is set to cut emissions 59% by 2030 from 1990 levels, according to policy analysis by Friends of the Earth, falling short of its 68% target. The gap between target and delivery has widened under the current government, they found.

Oil before zero – Uganda unveiled a net-zero by 2065 plan, advised by the International Energy Agency. The plan also foresees the expansion of oil production, which is set to begin in 2025. The country wants to end energy poverty by 2030.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Ministers arrive to narrow down 90 options appeared first on Climate Home News.

Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman publicly said “absolutely no” to a fossil fuel phase-out in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday. This position has been echoed in negotiating rooms, observers said. 

“The countries that made their positions extremely clear on this are in particular Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkey,” said Romain Ioualalen, campaigner at Oil Change International, during a press huddle.

The main text being discussed at Cop28, the global stocktake of climate policies, includes an “energy package” of goals to phase out fossil fuels, triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency.

China and India don’t specifically oppose phase-out language, but they’re against targets grouped by sector, Ioualalen said. At Cop26 in Glasgow, the decision text singled out coal, their main source of energy, for censure. Both countries signed a G20 declaration earlier this year that agreed to triple renewable energy capacity but stalled on fossil fuel language.

After the first week of climate talks, negotiators will hand ministers the task of reaching agreements on most issues, as the draft still includes almost 90 options to pick from.

UN climate change secretary Simon Stiell told a press conference on Wednesday the text is “a grab bag of wish lists and heavy on posturing”. “The key now is to sort the wheat from the chaff,” he added.

The final deal from Cop28 will influence climate policy for the rest of the decade, as the upcoming round of national climate plans due in 2025 will be guided by this text. 

“Pretty damned good week” 

US climate envoy John Kerry said Cop28 started with “a pretty damned good week”, citing the approval of the loss and damage fund — which he insisted on calling “climate impacts response fund”— and eight informal pledges, including on renewables and health.

Kerry added negotiators would be “working hard” to reach agreements on the second week. “If you’re going to reduce emissions and you’re actually going to hit the target of net zero by 2050, you have to do some phasing out. There’s no other way to get to that target,” he said.

When asked about the potential obstacles to reach a deal on fossil fuels, Kerry said: “It’s time for adults to behave like adults and get the job done.”

Earlier in the week, more than 100 European, African and island states signed a joint statement calling for a phase-out of unabated fossil fuels and peak in their consumption this decade. It is the single biggest issue civil society is rallying behind at Cop28.

The 24-page draft of the global stocktake published on Tuesday includes two forms of language on fossil fuel phase-out and an option to scrap it completely. The middle ground includes qualifiers “accelerating efforts” to phase out “unabated” fossil fuels and their “use” — without mentioning production.

Adaptation falling behind 

So far, fossil fuels have taken the centre stage at Cop28. But in the closing plenary of the first week, developing countries complained that this was leaving adaptation talks behind.

Countries will also need to resolve talks on a global goal for adaptation — which were close to collapse in the lead up to Cop28 — and increasing finance for adaptation. 

The groups of African nations, small islands, Latin American states and least developed countries all raised concerns on the slow pace of negotiations around adaptation finance. Crucially, one observer said, this is also a priority for the Arab group.

“The progress made this Cop is unsatisfying. We were expecting to reach ambitious outcomes in all adaptation agenda items. We need to work together next week to ensure an ambitious and inclusive outcome for the (global goal on adaptation),” said the Saudi negotiator.

“Efforts have been made to advance mitigation faster than adaptation, finance, just transition response measures,” said Bolivia’s chief negotiator, Diego Pacheco.

This story was corrected to clarify that Iraq is one of the opposing countries and not Iran.

The post As fossil fuel phase-out gathers steam, resistance builds appeared first on Climate Home News.

Take the energy package. On the defining battle of Cop28 – the fossil fuels conundrum – the draft text lays out two phase out options.

The first simply calls for “an orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels”, reflecting the position of the “high ambition coalition” (France, Kenya, Colombia and others).

The second is wordier. It has qualifiers that give cover to coal, oil and gas: countries should be “accelerating efforts” towards a phase out of “unabated” fossil fuels and “rapidly reducing their use” – but crucially not their production. It’s also more specific about the goal: “net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century.”

On the technology side of the package, the text is setting up a repeat of the horse-trading already seen at the G20 this year. A paragraph calling for the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 is followed by one pushing for the scale-up of the “low-emission technologies” preferred by fossil fuel industries, like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. In Delhi last September the world’s largest economies landed on including both to make everyone happy.

Every paragraph also comes with a “no text” option. This could lead to some “take it or leave it” situations already seen last year in Sharm el-Sheik, observers said. Another iteration of the text is expected today.

Cinderella still waiting for fairy coach

Measures to adapt to climate change have often been called the Cinderella of climate change – ignored and underfed, sitting in rags by the stove while cutting emissions gets all the attention.

And it’s not going to the ball at this Cop either, especially as loss and damage has come strutting in, to hoover up donor governments’ attention and pledges.

The bad news started a few weeks ago when the OECD announced adaptation finance fell 14% between 2020 and 2021.

Then there’s been the Adaptation Fund pledges at Cop28. France and Germany’s are no greater than they were at Cop27 and the US, EU, UK and Japan have yet to chip in.

These don’t seem the actions of governments committed to meeting their Cop26 pledge to double adaptation finance on 2019 levels by 2025.

In global stocktake discussions, some countries want the standing committee on finance to draw up a “roadmap” on how developed countries will meet that target.

A source with knowledge of discussions said developed countries oppose it, as Cop26 only “urges” them to double so its not a commitment.

A group of self-proclaimed “adaptation champion” countries have been looking to multilateral development banks for the funds. They hosted a talk with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank yesterday.

Another source of cash could be carbon markets. But in March, carbon credit sellers like Conservation International and buyers like the BBVA bank fought off an attempt to place a mandatory levy on offsets to fund adaptation.

2021’s adaptation finance figures predate Cop26 and the doubling pledge. We could see better figures for 2022 and meet the goal by 2025.

Even then, it’s a drop in the water. Meeting the goal would be $40 billion a year. The United Nations says adaptation needs will be more like $140-300 billion a year by 2050.

Fossil lobbyist count is in

Figuring out who is and isn’t a fossil fuel lobbyist at Cop28 is painstaking work: over four days a team of researchers, coders and data analysts individually cross-checked 84,000 delegates with public sources for evidence of their fossil fuel interests.

Tears, tantrums, cold pizza slices, vats of coffees and 1.6 million data points were an integral part of the exercise, says Global Witness’ Patrick Galey.

The number he and others in the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition came up with was 2,456.

This is the highest number of coal, oil and gas representatives ever recorded at a UN climate conference. If they were a country, they would form the third largest delegation in Dubai.

In brief

Aussies away… – Australia has promised to stop bankrolling fossil fuel projects overseas with public money. It joins the US, Canada, the UK and many EU states in the Clean Energy Transition Partnership first launched at Cop26. Australia will now have a year to translate words into actions. Most signatories have done so with the notable exception of the US, Germany and Italy.

…and home – It is unclear if and when Canberra will apply similar measures for fossil fuel subsidies at home. Direct spending and tax breaks for producers and users cost Australians an estimated $11.1 billion last year.

Keeping it cool – 60 countries including the US, Canada and Kenya, have signed up to commitments to reduce the climate impact of the cooling sector. Signatories agreed to cut their cooling-related emissions by at least 68% from 2022 to 2050. India and China – two of the world’s largest users of cooling devices – have not joined the coalition.

Doorstepped – Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne was questioned by a campaigner against Total’s East Africa Crude Oil pipeline at Cop28 today. Zaki Mamdoo asked him if he would call on the Ugandan police to release seven student protesters. “That is what we are doing today,” he said.

BOGA grows – Kenya, Spain and Samoa have joined the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance – a coalition of nations led by Denmark and Costa Rica which commit to stop producing oil and gas. None are significant oil and gas producers.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Fossil fuel phase-out language takes shape appeared first on Climate Home News.

Striking a firm, and at times exasperated, tone, the oil executive-turned-Cop28 president slammed press reports as “misrepresentations”, the result of “statements taken out of context”.

Al Jaber insisted he had said “over and over that the phase-down and phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable”. But, “how come does this never get picked up [by the media]?” he asked, appearing to have taken the criticism personally.

To reinforce his pro-science credentials, Al Jaber came to the press conference with Jim Skea, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

To nods from the Cop28 president, Skea said that in 1.5C-compatible scenarios “by 2050, fossil fuel use is greatly reduced and unabated coal use is completely phased out.” He added that oil use by 2050 is reduced by 60% and gas by 45%. Al Jaber, Skea said, was “attentive to the science” and “fully understood it”.

The latest headlines

• Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions – Laurence Tubiana and Emmanuel Guerin, European Climate Foundation
• Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short
• US tees up Congress battle with $3bn Green Climate Fund pledge

Event: Reading the politics

At 18:00 Dubai time today, Tuesday 5 December, Climate Home News will review the first week of Cop28 with special guests Vanessa Nakate, Bernice Lee and Harjeet Singh.

Register to watch live on Zoom and submit written questions to the panel.

‘The mother of all cover decisions’

As Cop28 enters the deep negotiations phase, anxiety is kicking in. Work on the crucial global stocktake text proceeds at snail’s pace. This is expected to be the main outcome of the summit, or as lead EU negotiator Jacob Werksman put it, “the mother of all cover decisions”.

It took three days to complete the first read-through of a document that is littered with multiple options and placeholders on every contentious issue.

“We are behind in the negotiating process,” said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, chair of the least developed countries.

Negotiators spent a big chunk of Monday huddled in informal talks trying to chart a path forward. The goal is to hand ministers, landing in Dubai in a couple of days, something easier to work with than a long list of open questions. At time of writing, a new text was expected by Tuesday morning.

Informal negotiations continued on Monday. Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis

The atmosphere is “positive”, three observers told Climate Home, but divisions remain on fundamental issues: the energy package, climate finance and the guidelines for the next round of national climate plans (NDCs).

To some extent, negotiators have got themselves to blame for the long nights ahead. Last June, an extended fight over the agenda in Bonn hindered progress, leaving all the painstaking work to Dubai.

“The fundamental challenge is that we came into Cop28 without a formal negotiating text,” Kaveh Guilanpour, a former lead negotiator for the EU and UK, told Climate Home. “After Bonn, all we had was unagreed headings, and no substantive discussions.”

Banga dismisses fear of the World Bank

One of the biggest concessions developing countries made to get a loss and damage fund up and running was agreeing to let the World Bank initially host it.

Developing countries expressed strong concerns about US dominance of the Bank’s culture and limits that placed on the new fund’s autonomy.

When Climate Home News nabbed president Ajay Banga for a quick interview after a side event, he dismissed such fears as a “misunderstanding”.

“That position is based on the idea that somehow the World Bank will control how that money is put out to work. That’s not the method, which is why they approved it. We’re only a trustee,” Banga said.

“I don’t know where the misunderstanding came from that we somehow will be deciding how the money is used,” he added.

While the World Bank will not dictate funding decisions, the fund’s staff will be Bank employees, which could influence work culture, said Liane Schalatek, Associate Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. World Bank staff could also be seconded to the loss and damage fund.

Michai Robertson, a climate finance negotiator for small island states, remained wary. The “biggest obstacle” for the not-yet-elected board will be negotiating against the World Bank’s policies, he said in a press conference.

“This institution will need to, as its president has highlighted that it’s ready to reform, will need to change,” Robertson said.

In brief

More important things – While dozens of world leaders spoke at Cop28, others stayed away. China’s Xi Jinping was inspecting the coast guard, Canada’s Justin Trudeau was eating Chinese food and campaigning in Ontario, Australia’s Anthony Albanese was calling in to talk radio show in Melbourne and we don’t know what the US’s Joe Biden was doing.

$57bn ‘mobilised’ – The Cop28 presidency claims to have mobilised over $57 billion so far “in new pledges and commitments”. This includes its own $30 billion Alterra Fund and the US’s $3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund. We’re working on a full breakdown.

Hero to fossil – Last year, Brazil’s president Lula got a rock star reception from civil society at Cop27. Today, his Brazilian government was awarded the Fossil of the Day award by campaigners after it moved closer to the OPEC+ group of oil producers.

Emissions up – Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to grow 1.1% in 2023, new research from the Cicero finds. Emissions have grown on average 0.5% a year over the last ten years. Separate research finds 2023 is likely to be the peak.

The post Cop28 bulletin: IPCC chief defends Al Jaber over science firestorm appeared first on Climate Home News.

In a live event with former UN special envoy Mary Robinson in November, Al Jaber momentarily forgot his PR-approved lines and reverted to industry talking points.

“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C,” he said.

He dismissed Robinson’s call for a phase-out as “alarmist” and said it would “take the world back into caves”.

Leading scientists Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Michael Mann wrote Al Jaber an open letter in response.

Speaking for the climate system, “the most difficult party… which has only red lines and no flexibility,” they said, “humanity needs to phase out fossil fuels by 2050”.

Carbon capture and storage can only mitigate “a very small fraction” of fossil fuel emissions, the letter said.

That last point is critical, as the oil and gas sector cites scenarios that show some residual fossil fuel use with CCS to justify production on a much larger scale.

Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, unpacks the CCS myth together with Emmanuel Guerin in an article for Climate Home News.

“People in the oil and gas industry know there is zero probability of [a] high-CCS scenario coming true,” they write. “The reality is they are just fooling us one more time, to buy time we can’t afford to waste in dealing with the climate crisis.”

Al Jaber’s slip of the tongue shows why precision matters in negotiations. Phase down can mean something very different to phase out, and “unabated” fossil fuels need further defining.

The latest headlines

• Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions – Laurence Tubiana and Emmanuel Guerin, European Climate Foundation
• Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short
• US tees up Congress battle with $3bn Green Climate Fund pledge

Health at the table

In a Cop first, health ministers took over plenary discussions on Sunday. Over 120 countries have signed a health declaration coordinated by the Cop28 presidency.

The declaration, and most ministerial statements, focused on strengthening healthcare systems as a means of climate adaptation.

It does not mention fossil fuels, or how burning coal, oil and gas releases harmful air pollutants besides greenhouse gases.

Sweden was one country to join the dots. “A decision here at Cop28 to phase out fossil fuels will contribute to [health] outcomes. The health of people and the planet cannot be separated,” said Mattias Frumerie, Swedish head of delegation.

Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, head of climate and health at the World Health Organization, took the same view in a press conference.

“Talking about action on climate change without talking about fossil fuels is like talking about lung cancer without mentioning tobacco,” he said.

The ministerial plenary is an “important and delayed step”, but health discussions need to start mentioning fossil fuels, said Dr Arvind Kumar, founder of the Lung Care Foundation. Otherwise “the problem will not get solved”.

“Little cosmetic changes here and there are not going to make much of a difference,” he said.

In brief

Bad excuse? – Brazilian president Lula da Silva said in a meeting with NGOs that he is joining OPEC to “convince oil producing countries that they need to prepare for the end of fossil fuels”. Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro argued oil producers already know they have to move past oil.

Big polluters – Electricity generation in China and India, and oil and gas production in the US caused the biggest emissions rises since 2015, analysis published by Climate Trace shows. The figures are based on a database of 352 million emissions sources. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement emissions grew 8.6%.

Slow entrance – Crowds have eased at Cop28 since world leaders left town, yet long queues at the entrance still held up negotiations, Earth News Bulletin reports. More than 100,000 delegates are registered for Cop28, according to UN Climate Change.

The post Cop28 bulletin: Al Jaber goes off script, denies science appeared first on Climate Home News.

While it can be helpful at the margins, CCS cannot possibly deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions on the scale needed to avert climate disaster. This can only happen if the main sources of emissions – fossil fuels – are phased out.

CCS is expected to deliver less than a tenth of the cumulative carbon dioxide emission reductions, over the 2023-2050 period, needed to hold global warming to 1.5C.

In the International Energy Agency net zero emission (NZE) scenario, CCS captures approximately 1.5 billion tons (GT) of CO2 in 2030, and 6 GT by 2050. But very little of that is applied to emissions from fossil fuel production and combustion. It is primarily used to capture CO2 from sectors where emissions are harder and more expensive to reduce, such as cement production or chemicals.

Is the IEA NZE scenario the only way to achieve net-zero emission and limit the temperature increase to 1.5C? Certainly not. There are different scenarios out there, including those of the Energy Transition Commission and McKinsey. And scenarios coming out of models are not to be confused with reality. The fossil fuel industry claims it can achieve the same objectives as in the IEA NZE scenario, while producing more oil and gas, by relying more heavily on CCS. Is this true?

50% more expensive

Another IEA scenario, the stated policies scenario, gives the answer. Reaching net-zero carbon emissions in this way would require the capture of 32 GT of CO2 emissions by 2050, including 23 GT through direct air capture (DAC).

At this scale, DAC alone would require 26,000 TWh of electricity to operate, which is more than the total global electricity demand today. Reaching net-zero emissions in this way would be 50% more expensive (for an annual investment cost of $6.9 trillions) than in the IEA NZE scenario.

People in the oil and gas industry know there is zero probability of this high-CCS scenario coming true. They are not even seriously investing in it, but waiting for governments, through taxpayers, to pick up the bill. The reality is they are just fooling us one more time, to buy time we can’t afford to waste in dealing with the climate crisis.

For all these reasons, framing the objective of the energy and climate transitions in the Cop28 decision text as “phasing out unabated [i.e. without CCS] fossil fuel emissions”, without specifying the order of magnitude of CCS in the overall portfolio of zero-carbon energy solutions (approximately 10%), and its primary use (hard-to-abate sectors, outside the oil and gas industry), would be profoundly misleading.

Focus on real solutions

It would also be a missed opportunity for Cop28 to send a clear signal of where investments should be going in the energy sector, to ensure climate safety as much as energy security and future profits of energy companies: energy efficiency and savings; the deployment of renewable energies and other zero-carbon energy solutions (green hydrogen, sustainable biofuels, synthetic fuels, etc.); the complete decarbonization of the power sector (electricity generation); and the electrification of energy demand.

Today, the oil and gas industry is not part of the energy transition: it represent only 1% of the total investment ($1.8 trillion in 2022) in clean energy solutions, globally. And it invests only about 2.5% of its own record-high profits into clean energy, as opposed to the further expansion of oil and gas.

What should be the ratio of investments between zero-carbon energy solutions and the maintenance of existing oil and gas facilities, to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C? 50/50 by 2030, says the IEA in its fossil fuels special report, before it shifts further in the direction of a complete phase out from fossil fuels.

These should be the real objectives of Cop28, in relation to the energy transition. Otherwise, we are just mixing up the signal and the noise, confusing what should be the priority (phasing-out fossil fuels, phasing-in zero-carbon energy solutions) and what is a small part of the strategy (CCS) for a successful energy transition.

Laurence Tubiana is the CEO and Emmanuel Guérin is a fellow at the European Climate Foundation.

The post Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions appeared first on Climate Home News.

But, as vague ambitions now turn into concrete plans, the reality looks rather different.

A timeline for the early closure of coal power plants is absent from the investment blueprint for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (Jetp) unveiled at a Cop28 side event on Friday. The government expects instead to operate plants “flexibly” and to rely on the controversial co-firing of biomass and ammonia with coal.

Rich countries have also largely backtracked on their initial promise to offer financial support on more attractive terms than Vietnam could already secure from investors. Nearly 60% of the money will be provided as commercial loans, while the tiny share of grants available is primarily earmarked for technical support, the 223-page document shows.

Leo Roberts, a coal transition expert at E3G, said there are “major reasons” to be concerned.

“The investment plan is no longer the pathway to replacing coal power with clean alternatives the Jetp originally promised. Instead, it focuses on expensive or unproven technologies,” he added. “Those directly undermine the pace and scale of the energy transition.”

Hydropower push

Nearly a year after the initial announcement, Vietnam’s prime minister Pham Minh Chinh has mapped out how Vietnam aims to spend the $15.5 billion pledged by G7 nations to boost the deployment of renewables and cut dependence on coal.

Under the agreement, Vietnam aims to peak its emissions by 2030 – five years earlier than planned – and source close to half of its power from renewable energy within the same timeframe.

The development of dozens of hydropower projects across the country forms the backbone of the government’s strategy to hit the targets. A significant proportion of the donors’ money is already directly allocated to those projects. While the plants are a source of low-emission energy, the construction of dams and reservoirs has caused social and environmental issues in the country, including displacement and water scarcity.

The Vietnamese government also plans to expand its power grid, bolster battery storage, and invest in offshore wind and solar.

Contested coal conversion

New coal plants will continue to be built until 2030, while the government drafts a more detailed plan to deal with existing ones.

A phase-out of coal power plants at a large scale “is not feasible in the near-term” – the investment plan states – “but some older plants may be able to transition to alternative energy sources and uses”. In particular, those that have operating for at least 20 years will begin a phased conversion to biomass and ammonia “provided the price is right”.

NGOs have criticised the use of biomass co-firing, on the basis it prolongs the life of coal plants, emits more CO2 than is commonly accounted for and harms forest ecosystems. Ammonia co-firing is “very costly and has limited feasibility for deployment at scale”, according to E3G.

Loans not grants

A major issue is rich countries are reluctant to commit public money as grants. None have directly allocated finance to retire coal plants early. The plan refers to a need for social security and retraining of workers affected by the transition, but it is unclear who will pay for this.

Contributors prefer to invest in renewable energy projects, which bring a return through electricity sales.

Over half of the $8 billion in public finance will be “commercial” loans disbursed by development banks. Cheaper loans on concessional terms represent roughly a third of the package. Grants make up less than 4% of the money offered by governments, with guarantees and equity contributing to the total.

Commercial banks, part of the GFANZ coalition, are expected to invest the remaining $7.5 billion of the package.

At the launch event, the Vietnamese prime minister was flanked by the EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and the UK net zero minister Claire Coutinho.

Von der Leyen called the partnership “a success story”. It is “a good example of everything we want to achieve here at Cop28,” she said. “We want to bring emissions down while driving economic growth up.”

She was echoed by Coutinho, who told Minh Chinh “we are uniting all our efforts behind you”. The Jetp model is “powerful”, she added, “because it is just”.

Silence over environmentalists’ crackdown

Neither of them raised concerns about human rights. The Vietnamese government has brutally cracked down on the civil society representatives that would normally have been key stakeholders in the programme.

Five environmentalists have been jailed in the last two years on tax evasion charges, which human rights groups say are trumped-up accusations. In the most recent case, Hoang Thi Minh Hong, director of the campaign group CHANGE, was handed a three-year prison sentence and a 100 million Vietnamese dong ($4,100) fine last September.

Vietnamese campaigner Hoang Thi Minh Hong was sentenced to three years in prison last September. Photo: CHANGE/350Vietnam

Two weeks earlier Ngo Thi To Nhien, director of an independent energy policy think-tank, had been arrested on a charge of “appropriating documents of agencies and organizations”. Nhien worked for the EU, the UN, and the World Bank and, before her detention, had reportedly provided technical advice for the development of the Jetp.

At the time, the EU, Germany, the US, and UK said they were deeply concerned about the imprisonment of environmentalists.

Campaigners decried the silence over the crackdown at the investment plan launch.

“We urge multilateral development banks and donor governments not to bulldoze ahead with the Jetp,” said Tanya Lee Roberts Davis, NGO Forum on ADB’s Just Transitions Advocacy Coordinator. “Doing so would mean acting as complicit bystanders in the silencing and reprisals faced by community rights, workers’, environmental, and climate advocates.”

The post Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short appeared first on Climate Home News.

In one of the last speeches of the day, US vice-president Kamala Harris promised $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, claiming the country is “a leader in the effort to expand international climate finance”.

Now she has to get it past Republicans in Congress, something that kept the US from delivering all of Barack Obama’s 2014 $3 billion pledge.

Italy, Switzerland, Portugal and Estonia have also announced GCF contributions at Cop28.

Several world leaders condemned Israel’s resuming attacks on Gaza, among them Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and South Africa. Harris skipped an event on energy transition to attend talks on the developing situation.

‘Greenwashing’ oil and gas initiative

Sultan Al Jaber’s much-touted Oil and Gas Charter “to speed up climate action in the industry” has seen the light of day.

Fifty oil and gas majors, representing 40% of global production, have committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 from their operations. That ignores the emissions caused by burning the stuff – 80-95% of the sector’s carbon footprint.

Other targets are ending routine flaring by 2030, and near-zero upstream methane emissions. Many oil majors, Al Jaber’s Adnoc included, have failed to implement bans on routine flaring.

Barbados’s prime minister Mia Mottley used her speech to target methane. Two years after a global methane pledge was launched in Glasgow, she said, “the global methane agreement that the world needs to see has not yet come.”

Mottley called for regulation and compliance – not voluntary commitments – to make oil and gas companies fix pipelines and stop flaring.

A group of 320 civil society organisations has written a letter to the Cop28 presidency saying the initiative should be dropped as it “serves primarily to greenwash the fossil fuel industry”.

In brief

Going nuclear – Twenty-two countries have pledged to collectively triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050 from 2023 levels. They include the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, UAE, UK and France.

Holy phase out – Pope Francis pleaded with Cop28 delegates to drop fossil fuels and engage in “lifestyles that are less dependent” on them. He was scheduled to deliver a speech in Dubai but pulled out due to health issues. Cardinal Pietro Parolin read his remarks instead.

Oil stays at home – Norway joined a group of countries pledging to stop financing fossil fuels internationally. The Clean Energy Transition Partnership, formed in 2021, has 40 members including the US, Canada and several EU countries.

Best forests forever – Brazil launched its proposal for a global fund to protect tropical forests in up to 80 countries. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility would mobilize at least $250 billion in existing resources and pay for conserved tropical forests in member countries.

Better late than never – The US has signed on to Powering Past Coal Alliance. Japan is now the only G7 country that has not committed to phasing out unabated coal power, although its prime minister Fumio Kishida said it would stop building unabated coal power plants.

Keep it in the ground – Colombia joined a group of nine countries calling for an international treaty to leave fossil fuels on the ground. It is the only fossil fuel producer among member countries, which consist mostly of small island states.

Bridgetown to IDB – Mottley’s climate adviser Avinash Persaud has announced he will leave government to become climate adviser to the Inter-American Development Bank’s president, starting 16 January.

The post Cop28 bulletin: US GCF pledge and ‘greenwash’ oil and gas charter appeared first on Climate Home News.

US vice-president Kamala Harris made the promise at the Cop28 summit in Dubai on Saturday, claiming the US is “a leader in the effort to expand international climate finance”.

Together with pledges from Italy, Switzerland, Portugal and Estonia, it brings the total raised in the latest GCF replenishment round to $12.7 billion.

If delivered, it puts the GCF on course for what its secretariat describes in internal documents as a middling level of ambition.

But to deliver, Harris and Joe Biden ‘s administration will have to persuade Republicans in Congress to approve the money or take control of Congress by winning elections.

Mixed reaction

Reaction to the pledge was mixed. ActionAid USA’s Kelly Stone said it was a “far cry from what is needed”.

She pointed out that the US still owed the GCF $1 billion from a $3 billion Obama-era pledge in 2014. “In reality, they are only pledging $2 billion in new money,” she said.

Erika Lennon, a GCF-watcher from the Center for International Environmental Law, said that pledging less than the $3 billion Barack Obama pledged nine years ago is “unacceptable”.

“The climate crisis has worsened, the need for climate finance is greater and the US pledge has stagnated. The US can and must do better,” she said.

Liane Schalatek from the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung foundation said it was "well below a fair share" and E3G's Alden Meyer said the US was "punching well below its weight".

The US's $3 billion is the biggest pledge of the fundraising round but its economy is far bigger than the other big donors in Europe and Japan.

But the Sierra Club's head Eva Hernandez said she was "encouraged" and the NRDC's Manish Bapna said it was "a promising signal of the USA's commitment to spur clean energy and promote resilience in vulnerable countries".

Congress problems

The US failed to deliver all of Obama's $3 billion pledge because of opposition from Republicans in Congress and later from Donald Trump in the White House. The Biden administration faces the same political headwinds.

In Congress, the House of Representatives, is currently controlled by the Republican Party. The Senate has a slim majority for Biden's Democrats.

Alden Meyer said getting GCF spending through the House of Representatives was not possible "unless they change their stance on it".

"There's three things they don't like about the GCF," he joked, "that its green, that it's for the climate and that it's a fund - other than that, they're fine with it".

As it happened: World leaders at Cop28

The best hope for getting funding through Congress, Meyer said, is for the Democrats to win the Presidential election next year and the Congressional elections at the same time.

The Biden administration could also use more general funds approved by Congress to channel money to the GCF, Meyer said, although that risks Congressional support for those funds.

A Trump victory in next year's elections would dampen any hopes of delivering the money. It was Donald Trump who, in his first term, refused to honour the remaining $2 billion of Obama's $3 billion pledge. He said the fund was "costing the United States a vast fortune". In May, the Biden administration paid $1 billion of this $2 billion.

This record of under-delivery has angered developing countries. In January, African members of the GCF board tried to block the US from co-chairing the board but later backed down.

This article was corrected on 6/12/2023. It originally incorrectly said that the $1 billion the Biden Administration promised in April 2023 had yet to be paid to the GCF. It has now been corrected to say this money was paid in May 2023.

The post US tees up Congress battle with $3bn Green Climate Fund pledge appeared first on Climate Home News.

Other options are to “phase down” all fossil fuels, to focus purely on coal or to say nothing at all. The coin is in the air.

The text is in response to the global stocktake of progress to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

The draft recognises that current policies have made some progress to avoid the worst climate change scenarios, but “notes with significant concern” that we’re still not in line with the Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C.  

Russia wants a “phase out” to be removed from the text, saying it would “discriminate” against their economy. The Cop28 presidency has used language suggesting preference for a “phase down” of fossil fuels. 

The global stocktake text also proposes to end fossil fuel subsidies with “fairness”, as well as tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency — two goals that have attracted broad support.  

Some bits did not make it into the draft, observers said. While the text does have a target for cutting emissions by 2030, it does not include a medium-term target for 2035. The IPCC says the world must cut emissions by 60% by then to keep us in with a chance of meeting the 1.5°C target.

Latest headlines

• As it happened: World leaders speaking at Cop28
• Countries pledge $400m to set up loss and damage fund

Circus comes to town 

More than 150 world leaders arrived in Dubai for day 2 of Cop28, where they announced modest funding pledges and bids for future Cops – but no new emissions targets. 

Their presence was felt by delegates on the ground. Parts of the venue were blocked for leaders to move, forcing people to take longer routes and cutting off access to a section of the conference. Journalists were told they needed special tickets and escorts to enter the main press conference room. 

The day started with a Climate Ambition Summit. UN chief Antonio Guterres took the stage to urge leaders to agree on a fossil fuel phase out. “Not reduce. Not abate. Phase out – with a clear timeframe aligned with 1.5 degrees,” he said. 

Then came the usual parade of national leaders. They had been urged to keep their speeches to three minutes, but some had a lot to say. France’s Emmanuel Macron and Kenya’s William Ruto went on more than four times the limit. 

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi pitched to host Cop33 in 2028. He announced a “green credits initiative” meant to go “beyond the commercial mindset of carbon credits”, without giving much detail about how. 

Brazilian president Lula da Silva boasted about his wins reducing deforestation by a third in his first year. He did not mention the country’s oil and gas expansion plans for 2030 or setting the stage to join OPEC in 2024. 

Some governments announced contributions to the new loss and damage fund, among them Italy ($108 million) and Canada ($8 million). World Bank CEO Ajay Banga, who will act as interim host of the fund, said the total pledged “isn’t going to get us very far” but money would start reaching people on the ground next year.

While tripling renewable energy was a common message in the leaders’ speeches, wording was less clear about phasing out fossil fuels, said E3G analyst Tom Evans. 

The post Cop28 bulletin: Fossil fuel phaseout is on the table appeared first on Climate Home News.

world leaders cop28 world leaders cop28 world leaders cop28. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore</font size>

The post As it happened: World leaders speak at Cop28 in Dubai appeared first on Climate Home News.

There were a few complaints from negotiators. But the hard-fought compromise struck in Abu Dhabi three weeks ago held, with the World Bank the interim host of the yet-to-be-named fund.

The UAE set an example by contributing $100 million of a little over $400m in pledges.

With that potentially contentious matter out of the way – and the agenda agreed – public attention will now focus squarely on the issue of fossil fuels and their phase out.

Al Jaber addressed the issue in his opening speech. Negotiators, he said, “must look for ways and ensure the inclusion of the role of fossil fuels”.

He acknowledged “strong views” on having fossil fuels in the text and added that “we collectively have the power to do something unprecedented – in fact, we have no choice but to go the very unconventional way”.

He got some applause for saying he is laser-focused on the “north star” of limiting global warming to 1.5C. He did not mention the International Energy Agency’s verdict that that means no new fossil fuel production.

He added that his presidency “made a bold choice to engage with oil and gas companies”, having difficult discussions with them and now “many” are committed to “near zero” methane emissions by 2030 and have adopted net zero by 2050 targets.

This is a reference to the Cop28 oil and gas decarbonisation accelerator, which is supposed to launch next week. Most publicly-listed oil majors already have net zero targets – but most of those do not include the emissions from burning their products.

Both as Cop28 boss and oil company CEO, Al Jaber’s focus is on producing oil and gas in a cleaner way not producing less.

Latest stories

• Countries pledge $400m to set up loss and damage fund
• Seven things to watch out for in world leader speeches at Cop28
• How can corporates ‘course correct’ on climate?

Reality check

Before Al Jaber’s speech, Cop28 began on a personal note. Cop27 president Sameh Shoukry called the room to its feet for a moment’s silence for Saleemul Huq, Pete Betts and “all civilians who have perished during the current conflict in Gaza”. The UK, EU and Bangladeshi delegations then gave touching tributes to their former colleagues.

After reflecting on the successes of his presidency, Shoukry issued a “reality check” aimed at rich nations. “Most of what we bring forward as tangible solutions and actionable commitments is based on speculation or well wishes,” he said.

He gave examples of these “mere assumptions”: that rich countries will provide $100 billion in climate finance, that the loss and damage fund will raise billions of dollars and that international financial institutions will be reformed.

In fact, he said climate finance is decreasing in relation to developing countries’ growing needs. Weak replenishment rounds for the Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund “are but two examples of this worrying trend”.

He finished by criticising countries that are expanding fossil fuel production despite saying they would phase coal out. He didn’t name names but the UK’s proposed coal mine springs to mind or the US, Canada and Australia planning to increase oil and gas production.

The post Cop28 bulletin: A loss and damage fund is born appeared first on Climate Home News.

On day one of UN climate talks in Dubai, negotiators rubber-stamped plans to get the fund up and running. The arrangements had been hashed out by a transitional committee over five fraught meetings in the past year.

The Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber hailed the decision as “historic”, with a broad smile, after watching delegates burst into a round of applause.

“This sends a positive signal of momentum to the world and to our work here in Dubai,” he added.

Initial pledges

Following the text’s adoption, a handful of countries promised contributions to the start-up phase of the fund. Germany and Cop28 hosts the United Arab Emirates committed $100 million each, followed by the United Kingdom (£40m or $50.5m), the United States ($17.5m) and Japan ($10m).

EU member states, including Germany, are expected to collectively deliver at least €225m ($245m).

The relatively paltry contribution from the US – the world’s largest economy – attracted immediate criticism. Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, called it “embarrassing.

Avinash Persaud, special envoy to Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley and a member of the transitional committee, welcomed the “hard-fought historic agreement”. But he said the pledges were unlikely to represent new and additional resources.

“Because the fund was only approved today, we can’t expect [them] to open up new budgets… so this initial money will be coming from existing budgets,” he told a press huddle, as reported by Carbon Brief’s Josh Gabbatiss.

How the fund will work

Significantly more money will be needed to help vulnerable communities benefit from the new mechanism once it gets up and running. The fund is designed to receive contributions “from a wide variety of sources”, including grants and cheap loans from the public and private sectors, and “innovative sources”.

The World Bank is set to initially host the fund for four years, despite strong resistance to its involvement from developing countries.

All developing countries “particularly vulnerable” to the effects of climate change will be eligible to benefit from the mechanism. However, the definition of vulnerability – one of the thorniest issues – is not detailed in the text.

The agreement is an “early win” for the Cop28 hosts, as it sets the start of the conference on a positive collaborative tone, Ana Mulio Alvarez, a loss and damage expert at E3G, told Climate Home.

Speaking at the plenary session, several negotiators underlined the difficult compromises needed to strike a deal.

Compromise deal

Developing countries had initially opposed a role for the World Bank, airing concerns over high costs, slow procedures and the US influence on the institution. But they eventually relented and accepted a compromise, with certain conditions attached to World Bank involvement and an out after four years.

Rich nations attempted to broaden the pool of donors expected to contribute, but made limited headway. The text “urges” developed countries to provide financial resources to the fund, while other nations are only “encouraged” to do so “on a voluntary basis”.

The EU climate chief, Wopke Hoekstra, has said China and petrostates like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar should pay into the fund. Others want to broaden the donor base to countries with high-emitting economies categorised by the UN as developing nations like South Korea and Russia.

“The UAE’s contribution of $100 million is welcome, both for its solid cash and for the pressure it puts on the world’s biggest polluters to also step up and recognise their responsibility for decades of pollution,” said Teresa Anderson, climate justice campaigner with ActionAid International.

“Innovative sources” of finance could mean carbon taxes on international aviation or shipping, financial transactions or fossil fuels. France and Kenya are set to launch a coalition at Cop28 to develop these options.

Civil society experts have said much more work lies ahead and, ultimately, the success of the fund will depend on how much money it is equipped with.

The cost of loss and damage for developing countries is projected to reach $400 billion per year by 2030.

“Although rules have been agreed regarding how the fund will operate there are no hard deadlines, no targets and countries are not obligated to pay into it,” said Adow. “The most pressing issue now is to get money flowing into the fund and to the people that need it.”

The post Countries pledge $400m to set up loss and damage fund appeared first on Climate Home News.

Their Uber rides are taking them along highways flanked by banners from Saudi Arabia’s Green Initiative, urging them to visit their pavilion. 

Many are popping in their complimentary sim cards, handed over with your passport by immigration officials. 

But others are suspicious of this free gift. With the UAE’s reputation for cyber-spying, there’s talk of VPNs, burner phones and not using the venue’s wifi, QR codes or app (after last year’s controversy). 

Whether its paranoia or they’re really out to get us, many are taking precautions. 

Latest stories

• Four questions for Cop28 to settle about a global carbon market
• Special report: How can corporates ‘course correct’ on climate?
• Seven things to watch out for in world leader speeches at Cop28

On the defensive 

And Sultan Al Jaber thinks they’re out to get him too. The Center for Climate Reporting revealed that talking points were drawn up for him for Cop28 meetings with foreign governments, which included lobbying for fossil fuel deals for the oil and gas company he heads. 

Asked about it in a press conference yesterday, Al Jaber laughed and said the reporting was “an attempt to undermine the work of the Cop28 presidency”. 

While he did not dispute the authenticity of the talking points prepared for him, he claimed he had not seen them and did not use them. He added that he and the UAE didn’t need the Cop28 presidency to make business deals.

Sultan Al Jaber addresses questions at a press conference yesterday (Photo credit: Kiara Worth/UNFCCC)

Agenda agreed 

Al Jaber’s diplomats appear to have passed their first test with flying colours, as they persuaded negotiators not to add new items to the Cop28 agenda. 

Groups of developing countries put a series of issues forward as agenda items including developed countries scaling up finance and opposition to trade measures like the EU’s carbon border tax. 

But they appear to have been persuaded that these priorities will be discussed elsewhere on the agenda. 

So the opening ceremony should begin this morning as planned and adopting the agenda should now be just a formality – in contrast with the nine-day debate in Bonn earlier this year. 

Compared to the leaders’ speeches tomorrow, the ceremony will be a relatively low-key affair but it is the moment Sultan Al Jaber turns from Cop28 president-designate to Cop28 president. 

He will make a speech which is his moment to lay out what he wants from the summit. After the latest revelations, any language on fossil fuels will be watched carefully. 

The post Cop28 bulletin: Welcome to Dubai appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Paris Agreement establishes ways for countries to “voluntarily cooperate” to meet their climate targets by allowing emission reductions and removals to be traded.

In Dubai, negotiators will finalise the architecture of a new mechanism allowing countries to sell offsets to other governments, companies and individuals under Article 6.4.

It comes at a pivotal time. The voluntary carbon market has faced more intense scrutiny than ever this year with report after report casting doubt over its integrity. But for many, carbon credits remain a valuable tool to channel much-needed finance to developing countries.

The stakes are high for the new system to get it right and correct problems with existing systems. We outline four critical questions for the outcome from Dubai.

Which activities are eligible?

Deciding which activities can produce credits is an important and fraught question.

If the criteria are too restrictive, countries may struggle to obtain any meaningful financial support from the mechanism. Too broad and projects with questionable climate credentials, or other significant environmental and social concerns, will undermine their credibility.

Over the last year, the UN’s Article 6.4 supervisory body has been evaluating the eligibility of carbon removals: activities that take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and store it. These can be nature-based, such as planting trees, or engineering-based, like machines to suck CO2.

A Direct Air Capture (DAC) plant operated by Climeworks in Iceland. Photo: Climeworks

Tensions emerged last May when an internal briefing note drafted by the UNFCCC secretariat advised against including technological solutions describing them as “unproven” and potentially risky.

While the supervisory body distanced itself from the document, it angered the industry which responded by flooding the consultation process with submissions putting their case forward.

It worked. The final recommendations, agreed upon after several extended meetings, do not directly encourage or discriminate against any type of activity.

Ministers still need to approve the package in Dubai. While a broad agreement is expected, certain groups may still have issues with it.

Papua New Guinea, representing the Coalition for Rainforest Nations, could be a blocker. It has long argued that credits issued for forest conservation under the Redd+ framework should automatically qualify for the new mechanism.

Most countries and experts disagree. “The intention of the Redd+ framework was never to generate credits”, says Pedro Martins Barata, a carbon markets expert at EDF and a former negotiator. “That mechanism is much less stringent. They should go through the same process of methodology submission and independent evaluation as all the other activities.”

Are the reductions additional and permanent?

As credits are used by governments or companies to compensate for their polluting activities, each unit must represent a real emission reduction. This has been a fundamental and long-standing issue with many carbon offsetting projects.

Among other things, rules need to make sure the activities would have not happened anyways without the carbon finance (additionality) and that any CO2 removed does not re-enter the atmosphere in a short amount of time (permanence).

The Supervisory Body has tackled those policy issues in the recommendations sent to Cop28 for approval.

On additionality, the document says that projects will have to take into account all relevant legislation and produce a detailed analysis of investment barriers to demonstrate that emission-cutting activities would have not occurred without the mechanism.

Experts told Climate Home these provisions should be stringent enough.

A community ranger standing in a mangrove forest restored as part of a nature protection project in Kenya. Photo: Anthony Ochieng / Climate Visuals Countdown

On permanence, concerns have been raised.

“The text leaves open the question of for how many years a credit is guaranteed to correspond to an actual removal without giving specific thresholds,” says Martins Barata, adding this should be established in further work.

Another contentious point is the possibility of relieving project developers of the duty to carry out permanence monitoring after they stop issuing credits. The risk is that, for example, protected trees could burn in a fire unleashing the stored carbon into the atmosphere.

The recommendations indicate this exemption can apply when a “negligible” risk of the emission removals being reversed is demonstrated.

Jonathan Crook of Carbon Market Watch argued the text could be tightened. “How do you define negligible risk? What sources will be accepted as evidence? These are all open questions that may cause potential issues,” he added.

What happens if a country wants to take back credits?

Article 6 has a provision to ensure that emission reduction activities are not counted twice, by both the seller and buyer, towards their respective climate plans. When a country transfers a credit to a government or a company it needs to deduct that from its greenhouse gas inventory.

As a result, countries need to strike a balance between attracting revenues and being able to meet their own climate plans.

But a contested rule could give struggling governments a way out. In Dubai, negotiators will be discussing whether countries may be allowed to withdraw any credits that have been previously authorised. This could also apply in cases where the projects are causing environmental and human rights violations.

Carbon Market Watch’s Crook said this provision poses a substantial threat. “If a country can revoke credits that have already been traded, and potentially used, then you have a serious risk of double counting,” he told Climate Home. “If revocations are allowed, at the very least they shouldn’t apply to credits already sold.”

Will the new market rescue the reputation of carbon credits?

A lot is riding on the Article 6.4 mechanism because of the impact it can have on the wider carbon offsetting world.

Crook said it needs to set a “high bar”, sending a strong message to the voluntary market that there needs to be improvements.

The new mechanism is set to include some positive elements that currently don’t exist in carbon markets used by corporations.

Already agreed rules have established that 2% of any credits traded in the new market will be automatically cancelled. This means that offsetting will not just be a zero-sum game, shifting emissions cuts from one place to another.

But when it comes to individual projects, experts said it was too early to say if they will have high integrity.

“You can have the best rules but it all comes down to implementation,” said Martins Barata. “They’re off to a good start. But come back to me when they start approving projects”.

If the recommendations are approved in Dubai, the new mechanism may start issuing credits towards the end of 2024.

Paradoxically, the first batch of credits to be traded may pose some of the biggest integrity risks. A process to transition credits created under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the now-defunct UN carbon market established through the Kyoto Protocol, into the new mechanism is well underway.

CDM credits have been widely criticised for failing to contribute to real emissions reductions and causing human rights violations.

The post Four questions for Cop28 to settle about a global carbon market appeared first on Climate Home News.

This year, some big hitters like the US’s Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping will stay away. Other influential leaders including Narendra Modi, Emmanuel Macron, Mohamed bin Salman, Mia Mottley, William Ruto and Lula Da Silva are due to attend.

World leader speeches at Cop28 are a chance to show off ambitious policies, bear witness to climate impacts, pledge funding and point fingers. Here are seven things to watch out for.

1. Fossil fuel phase-out

A broad coalition of nations is calling for a phase out, or at least phase down, of fossil fuels. They will face resistance from countries that rely on fossil fuels to generate revenue and keep their people content.

Any deal on a fossil fuel phase out will be struck by negotiators in closed meeting rooms towards the end of Cop28 in two weeks time.

But we will get a good sense of the strength of resistance from the first two speeches on Friday – that of UAE’s Mohamed Bin Zayed and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman.

Its not just Gulf petrostates that defend fossil fuels though. Several African leaders in particular want to exploit their fossil fuel reserves, they say, to bring wealth and electricity to their people.

Senegal’s Macky Sall and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Felix Tshisekedi are among them. They may use their speeches to ask why they shouldn’t pump for new oil and gas when the likes of the US and Canada plan to increase production.

2. Tales from the frontline

After a year that had climate scientists reaching for the thesaurus to describe their shock at global temperature spikes, leaders will share how climate disasters hit their people.

In Libya, extreme rainfall overwhelmed decrepit dams and washed away much of the city of Derna in September. 

Leaks reveal how McKinsey drives African climate agenda

Leaders from Iraq and East African nations may tell of extreme drought while South American leaders could address their weird winter heatwave. 

Then there are the slow, creeping climate impacts. In the Pacific, rising seas and intensifying storms are eroding narrow atolls, while expanding desert eats into the fertile land of northern Africa and mountain glaciers retreat.

3. Start-up cash for a loss and damage fund

Negotiators are set to agree at Cop28 on how to set up a global loss and damage fund for victims of the climate crisis.

A handful of pledges are expected from the EU and others to get it started. Don’t get too excited: we’re talking in the region of $0.5-1 billion, not the $100bn a year developing countries ultimately want to see flowing through the fund.

The ‘inevitable’ fossil fuel fight set to dominate Cop28

Avinash Persaud, climate adviser to Barbados’ prime minister, told Climate Home that amounts like that should not be dismissed. “Countries can’t pull billions out of a hat,” he said, “because you have to budget in advance.”

Climate Action Network’s Harjeet Singh took a stronger line. “Recovery costs are soaring into the billions,” he said, “far exceeding the expected pledges of a few hundred million.”

4. Green Climate Fund pledges 

The UN’s flagship climate fund held its four-yearly fundraising round in October. Pledges from wealthy countries totalled a disappointing $9.3bn – less than last time in 2019. 

That’s left the fund’s secretariat looking to have to scale back ambition – help fewer farmers adapt to climate change, conserve less forest, protect fewer countries with early warning systems.

A few late pledges could improve its fortunes. Italy, Sweden and Switzerland have yet to announce contributions. Their leaders are attending.

The US and Australia are not sending leaders but could announce funds elsewhere. Both now claim to be climate leaders. This is the time to prove it with cash. 

In numbers: The state of the climate ahead of Cop28

5. Bridgetown developments

Two years ago, Barbados’ prime minister Mia Mottley got some influential allies together in her capital city Bridgetown to plot how to transform the global financial system to make it work for climate. 

Since then, her speeches have become must-watch verdicts on how that mission is going and where it should go next. We’re expecting her to call for more ambition in reforming banks like the World Bank so that they spend more on climate.

Her speeches often include innovative ideas. Last year, she suggested that oil companies should pay for climate damages. With Barbados’ support, France and Kenya have set up a task force to look into making that happen, which Emmanuel Macron and William Ruto are likely to promote. So what Mottley proposes this year is worth watching.

6. Coal-to-clean updates 

Two years ago in Glasgow, the concept of a Just Energy Transition Partnership was launched. The idea was for rich countries to financially help coal-reliant emerging economies switch to renewables. 

South Africa piloted the idea, while agreements with Indonesia and Vietnam came next. All have been plagued by arguments over the pace of change and the nature of finance. 

President Cyril Ramaphosa will give an update on South Africa’s package on Friday. The most advanced of the partnerships, it nonetheless faces political challenges.

Fearing repression in Dubai, non-binary people stay away from Cop28

Vietnam is due to announce its investment plan at Cop28. Prime minister Chinh Pham Minh will no doubt talk it up, without mentioning that he’s jailed several environmental campaigners. 

The words of Indonesian president Joko Widodo could be interesting as, ahead of February’s elections, he could air his complaints about rich countries’ insistence on mainly loans not grants.

With India uninterested, there are no more in the immediate pipeline but plenty of leaders will emphasise the volume of investment needed to support clean development.

7. Bids to host Cop29

Two years ago, we already knew that we’d be in the United Arab Emirates for Cop28. Similarly, we already know that Cop30 will be in Belém in Brazil in two years time. 

But we don’t know where we’ll be this time next year. It’s up to the UN’s Eastern Europe group to decide. Various EU states have offered but Russia has vetoed them because of EU support for Ukraine.

Russia supports Azerbaijan’s candidacy but Armenia, which is at war with Azerbaijan, opposes that and wants to host itself – which Azerbaijan opposes right back. 

Meet the Italian fugitive advising Emirati start-up Blue Carbon

The various potential hosts could use their speeches to make their case. If there’s no agreement the default is for the UAE to keep the presidency with the physical conference held at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, Germany.

For Cop31, contenders include Australia, whose leader is not on the speaker list, and Turkiye whose president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will speak on Friday.

The post Seven things to watch out for in world leader speeches at Cop28 appeared first on Climate Home News.

The final outcome of Cop28 will – when it finally lands around 12-13 December – offer the best assessment of how far and how fast leaders are willing to go to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

That deal will not be easy for Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al-Jaber to deliver. But given revelations by the BBC that the UAE planned to use Cop to cut oil deals, he will be under intense scrutiny and pressure to deliver a high ambition outcome that charts a pathway to fossil fuel phaseout.

This meeting comes at an exceptionally difficult time globally and with the backdrop of many tensions, the war in the Middle East being the most recent addition. Yet the annual UN climate summit is no stranger to diplomatic heat.

The ‘inevitable’ fossil fuel fight set to dominate Cop28

In the near 30 years of these meetings tensions have often been high: this in itself cannot be used as an excuse for failure.

Governments are faced with a clear challenge. This year will be the hottest year on record. Global greenhouse gas emissions are at all time highs. Climate impacts are hitting home, driving up food inflation, choking the Panama canal, drying the Amazon, killing crops in Africa, burning vast swathes of North America and leaving areas of India, China underwater.

Given the scale of the crisis, the benchmarks for success at Cop28 are high. The evidence – as presented in the Global Stocktake – must inform the results and that means a high ambition outcome.

Fossil fuel phaseout

For one, Cop28 must land a collective plan for a just and equitable phaseout of coal, gas and oil – the key drivers of the climate crisis.

To keep 1.5C within reach, the energy transition needs to accelerate.

Slow or insufficient action on fossil fuels would mean more economic instability through the 2020s and 2030s.

If “abatement” technologies are applied in some sectors, they need to capture all emissions, not delay action.

Cop28 decisions can send a clear signal that “business as usual” and relying on uncertain future abatement technologies is no longer viable.

Renewables and efficiency

Second, countries are expected to commit to triple renewable energy by 2030 and double energy efficiency.

Many are on track for this already but a common – united goal – will send market signals and can strengthen the fossil fuel phase out. Setting a framework for delivering this at Cop28 with measures to track progress is essential.

Finance

Three, clean energy and measures to beef up adaptation and resilience of countries to extreme weather need finance.

That the $100 billion has now been met  is good news, but it’s far short of the $1 trillion a year that’s required to support poorer nations.

We need agreement at Cop28 from major development banks and donors that access to finance will be faster and at lower costs. No finance, no future.

Stocktake

Four, a flotilla of new climate plans for 2035 are due in around 15 months.

The Global Stocktake outcomes should be used to ensure 2025 sets a new standard for governments to meet.

That means tougher targets covering more sectors. It also means ensuring that adaptation is treated as a priority: scaling up plans to cope with future disasters is essential, as is the cash to support that.

Loss and damage

Five, delivery of the loss & damage fund at Cop28 will be a major milestone. Success will depend on funding.

We’ll need to see this during and after the World Leaders Summit from 1-2 December to rebuild trust and reassure poorer nations that those with the resources have their back when extreme weather hits.

A final deal without these five pillars is not credible. It would deny the realities faced by the poorest and most vulnerable countries and leave them in the lurch.

No number of assorted voluntary “pledges” or “statements” at Cop28 can make up for a concrete agreement by all countries under the UN.

Carefully worded press releases and neat spin from major PR firms will be tomorrow’s recycled paper. A “Dubai Deal” under the UN will have a legacy, and one the UAE could be proud of.

In numbers: The state of the climate ahead of Cop28

Landing these five pillars takes diplomatic leadership. It requires the EU, the UK and Canada to step up and build an alliance with small islands, low income nations and African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto by recognising and meeting asks for support.

At a time when confidence in the “West” is low and accusations it is not supporting developing countries are rife, Brussels, London and Washington need to deliver – on more than just rhetoric.

Cop28 offers a platform for leaders in India, China and Brazil to address on the global stage the deep risks their populations face as the world warms, and recognise the profound reward they will gain from leaning into a strong outcome.

All three nations are clean energy powerhouses; all three have key resources for the clean transition; all three have an interest in deals that deliver jobs, prosperity and curb the rising cost of living.

Fearing repression in Dubai, non-binary people stay away from Cop28

Most of all success at Cop28 also depends on Dr Sultan Al-Jaber’s ability to make this summit his country’s moment to stand tall and deliver globally.

A presidency that pursues its own domestic and regional interests is one that usually fails.

Given his role as CEO of an oil giant, Al-Jaber will need to work harder than most to underline his climate credentials.

Deliver on the above and this could be the UAE’s greatest achievement.

Fail and he will blow a glorious opportunity to cement the UAE as a global player and confirm the worst fears of those who said his heart was never in it.

Alex Scott is E3G’s climate diplomacy and geopolitics programme lead, based in London

Linda Kalcher is executive director at the Strategic Perspectives think tank, based in Brussels

The post Here’s how the oil-rich UAE delivers a Cop28 ‘win’ appeared first on Climate Home News.

It’s a measure of how far the discourse has moved since the Paris Agreement that Sultan Al Jaber has taken that line in the run-up to Cop28.

As president of the UN climate summit starting in Dubai on 30 November, Al Jaber could not ignore mounting calls to quit coal, oil and gas.

“We cannot address climate catastrophe without addressing its root cause: fossil fuel dependence,” said UN chief Antonio Guterres last week. “Cop28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas – that its end is inevitable.”

But Al Jaber has not quit the day job as chief of Emirati state-owned oil company Adnoc, which is increasing production. The conflict of interest is writ large.

And despite the longstanding scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels is the main driver of the climate crisis, there was no political consensus to name them in UN climate decisions until very recently.

At the 2021 climate summit in Glasgow, UK, countries made a breakthrough agreement to phase down coal power generation. A group of around 80 countries pushed to extend that to oil and gas in Sharm-el-Sheik last year, but were stonewalled. Will Al Jaber’s rhetoric translate into an international agreement?

Phasing down or cashing in?

The science is clear: we need to substantially reduce the use of fossil fuels to stand a realistic chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said. There is no room for new oil and gas fields, the International Energy Agency agreed.

While there is money to be made, though, mining and drilling continue. Buoyant oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine last year have spurred development.

The top 20 fossil fuel-producing nations plan to extract twice as much by 2030 as the level consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goals, according to the UN’s 2023 Production Gap report.

The difference between governments’ fossil fuel plans and projections and levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and 2°C remains wide. Credit: UN Production Gap Report

The first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement is due to conclude at Cop28 – a prime opportunity for a course correction. Two elements of the energy package under negotiation have broad support: a tripling of renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030. But on a third plank – the fossil fuel phase-out – divisions remain stark.

“We are not going to solve the problem by scaling up renewables alone,” says Ploy Achakulwisut, a research fellow at SEI and one of the UN report’s authors. “Governments need to step up and commit to stronger language on fossil fuels now. Accepting a phase-out is the first step towards coordinating and implementing a well-managed and equitable transition.”

A fractured field

On one end of the spectrum, fifteen countries under the banner “high ambition coalition” are calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels production and use: no ifs, no buts. The group includes rich Western countries like France and Spain, African states, including Kenya and Ethiopia, and Pacific island nations.

Oil, carbon and loss: navigating Cop28 with Climate Home News

On the opposite end, Russia says nyet to any proposal of cutting the oil and gas production that makes up most of its revenues. “We oppose any provisions or outcomes that somehow discriminate or call for phase-out of any specific energy source or fossil fuel type,” the country’s recent submission to the UNFCCC said.

In between are developed countries justifying continued oil and gas development on energy security grounds and emerging economies resistant to any check on their growth.

One word is likely to dominate discussions: unabated.

Abatement fight

A universally-recognised definition of “unabated” does not exist – and that is a big part of the problem. Fossil fuel abatement generally refers to efforts to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emitted throughout their life cycle, chiefly by using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

But what percentage of emissions needs to be captured and how countries ensure this is not a delaying tactic are open questions.

“Differing views on abatement are causing hostages to fortune and allowing fractures to appear that are not helpful in terms of actually achieving fossil fuel phaseout,” Camilla Fenning, a fossil fuel transition expert at E3G, told Climate Home. “A clear definition is something that would be very useful.”

Chevron’s Gorgon gas project in Australia has one of the largest carbon capture and storage plants in the world. Photo: Chevron Australia

Rich countries all call for some form of phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, in line with what was agreed at a G7 meeting in Hiroshima last May.

Their interpretation is not univocal, however.

The EU wants to designate some clear boundaries around the use of technofixes. “Exaggerated expectations from CCS should not be a pretext to delay climate action now,” an EU negotiator told Climate Home. “It will not deliver what we need before 2030. In the longer term, we will need it in hard-to-abate sectors, but we need to see what is possible.”

Meanwhile, the US is betting big on CCS and curbs on methane leakage to limit the climate damage of oil and gas operations. It is a position that brings it closer to petrostates like Saudi Arabia and Cop28 hosts UAE.

EU law pushes foreign oil and gas producers to cut methane

China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has also come out in favour of CCS while calling a global fossil fuel phase-out “unrealistic”.

The country, which is expanding both coal power capacity and renewables, risks being a major blocker to an agreement. Highlighting “the significant role of fossil fuels in ensuring energy supply security”, its latest submission said the transition needs to be achieved by “establishing the new before abolishing the old”.

For Cuban Ambassador Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta, chair of the G77 group of developing countries, development needs take priority over a fossil fuel phase-out. “The most important thing for developing countries is eradicating poverty and guaranteeing a right to development within a sustainability framework,” he told Climate Home.

Equity and money questions

For many developing countries, equity concerns will need to be addressed before signing on to any deal.

Negotiators from Africa and India are planning to push rich nations to commit to phasing out fossil fuels faster than the rest of the world. Their position is based on the “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle, where the wealthy countries who are most responsible for causing climate change take the lead in tackling it.

They will highlight the contradictions between what some developed countries advocate for in climate talks and what they do at home. For example, the US is responsible for more than one-third of the expansion of global oil and gas production planned by mid-century, followed by Canada and Russia, according to Oil Change International.

Cuba’s Pedroso Cuesta called this a “severe contradiction”. “Those who are proposing these initiatives [fossil fuel phase out] should lead by example. I don’t think they are currently,” he added.

France, Kenya set to launch Cop28 coalition for global taxes to fund climate action

Another sticking point is money. A huge amount of it will be required for developing countries to wean themselves off fossil fuels while investing heavily in renewables and energy efficiency, the other elements of the COP28 energy package. “Developing countries need to be given assurances about more financial support to encourage confidence in signing up for those commitments”, says E3G’s Fenning

It is not yet clear who is going to provide finance and on what terms. Energy transition partnerships between rich countries and South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam have stuttered over the last year. Promises of significantly higher levels of support from development banks and the private sector still need to materialize.

Activists gearing up

While country delegates refine their rhetoric, activists are also gearing up their campaigning firepower to make sure a fossil fuel phase-out remains top of the agenda in Dubai.

Demonstrations and protests are expected to be limited to the UN-designated zones, given the harsh rules clamping down on dissent in the UAE, campaigners told Climate Home. But more creativity and better coordination will ensure impact, they promise.

Campaigners are planning to target anyone blocking a deal on fossil fuels. Not only governments but also industry lobbyists expected to descend onto the petrostate in vast numbers.

“The fact that we’re closer than ever to a decision on fossil fuel phase-out in a UN space means that the industry is mobilising more strongly to oppose this,” says Collin Rees, an activist at Oil Change International. “The industry has been forced to come out and show its face. Having that fight in full public view will be very important”.

The post The ‘inevitable’ fossil fuel fight set to dominate Cop28 appeared first on Climate Home News.