The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seventh Assessment Report can and must be ready in time for the second Global Stocktake (GST).

The IPCC report plays a pivotal role in assessing climate change science and informing government decisions, especially in the context of multilateral negotiations. 

The GST is a key element of the Paris Agreement, designed to evaluate the world’s progress towards long-term climate goals. It must be conducted “in the light of equity and the best available science,” underscoring the importance of IPCC assessments as a primary input for the GST.

As an IPCC author from the Global South, I believe that ensuring the IPCC cycle aligns with GST timelines is crucial for maintaining the integrity of international climate cooperation. 

Efforts to enhance the inclusion of developing country voices should be prioritized over inordinate delays, which could risk the irrelevance of the IPCC report for the second Global Stocktake – taking place in 2028.

Concerns over accelerating process

A delayed production at the three IPCC working groups—which craft three reports covering the physical science of climate change, impacts and adaptation, and mitigation— is being justified under three main arguments.

First, those in favour of delaying the report claim that expediting the process could risk a lack of representation of underrepresented communities. A delay may impact the inclusion of voices from the Global South and non-English speakers, reducing the diversity of perspectives essential for a comprehensive assessment.

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Another argument is that the topics covered in the report could also be reduced in range. Ensuring a broad array of topics is vital for addressing the multifaceted nature of climate change and providing a holistic understanding.

Finally, delays would risk spreading out key messages from the different IPCC working groups. Timely integration of insights from the different working groups is crucial for a cohesive and comprehensive assessment.

Measures for inclusion 

The IPCC’s role is to provide credible scientific assessments to the UNFCCC process and national decision-makers. Time constraints may lead to some compromises, but it is better to minimize these than to forego IPCC input entirely. The IPCC must ensure its assessments are available in time for the second GST to maintain its relevance and impact on global climate policy-making.

On the inclusion of underrepresented communities, ensuring representation is more about deliberate efforts than merely the time available. Creating networks for southern scholars, facilitating special issues in academic journals, and convening regional meetings can enhance representation.

Delegates convene in a huddle on the fourth day of IPCC-61 in Sofia, Bulgaria. Photo: IISD/ENB | Anastasia Rodopoulou

Focused attention on these efforts in the next IPCC cycle is more effective than strictly adhering to traditional timelines. My experience as an IPCC author from the Global South indicates that inclusion results from proactive initiatives rather than extended timelines.

Successive IPCC cycles have increasingly included literature from developing regions and better represented perspectives from the Global South. For instance, AR6 highlighted issues of equity, impacts on vulnerable communities, and development pathways relevant to developing countries.

Without IPCC input, the GST may lack essential Southern perspectives. The direction of travel within the IPCC has been towards greater concern for under-represented regions, countries, and research communities. Removing IPCC input risks losing an important source of southern perspectives.

No risk of losing quality

Accelerating the cycle by a few months does not significantly compromise the report’s robustness. Past assessments have been completed within five to six years, and with urgency, drafting and expert reviews can be slightly expedited.

Reviews by governments remain crucial to the science-policy interface. The effective time required for a single working group report is approximately four years from the call for experts for the scoping meeting. Given the urgency of the climate crisis, it is feasible to shorten the drafting and review process by a few months without compromising the quality.

Concerns about topic range and integration can be mitigated through proper planning of publications and coordinated efforts across working groups. Modifying the assessment report process to be more flexible is preferable to rendering the IPCC policy irrelevant. Appropriate planning can achieve a significant degree of integration, even if not perfect.

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Designing the IPCC cycle in ways that prevent input to the GST risks undercutting an essential element of international cooperation—providing scientific assessment to political decision-makers.

Concerns about the under-representation of developing country voices are legitimate but can be better addressed by redoubling efforts to enhance these voices in the IPCC, rather than through delay. Ensuring timely IPCC input to the second GST is essential for effective global action on climate change and for the voices of developing countries to be adequately represented.

This opinion piece is adapted from a letter written by Dr Sokona and 39 other IPCC authors from developing countries ahead of the IPCC’s plenary session in Sofia, Bulgaria

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A UN “stocktake” of progress found the world is heading to blow past the 1.5C goal and, after speaking to governments, the UN has put together a list of options to stop that happening.

The head of the UN’s climate arm Simon Stiell told reporters today that “we are far from where we need to be as a global community” and the “window of opportunity is rapidly closing”. The response to the stocktake is an “opportunity for course correction”.

The 65-page document published today contains several options which are far more ambitious than current policies and targets.

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These include rich countries stopping exploration for fossil fuels by 2030,  delivering $200-400 billion a year to help climate victims through a loss and damage fund and all countries phasing out coal use by 2040.

Government negotiators will narrow down the list at a series of meetings over the next two months, before government ministers decide what they can all agree upon at Cop28 in Dubai.

Stiell said that governments broadly agreed “as to where the gaps are and where those gaps need to close”.

The disagreements, he said, “come from how its done and who should carry the weight in terms of the action and the responses that are required”.

In recent years, developed nations like the US and Europe have pushed for big emerging economies like China to do more to reduce emissions and to deliver climate finance. 

China and allies have pushed back, arguing that the responsibility still lies with the wealthiest nations who have historically polluted the most.

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The stocktake is a once-every-five-years process designed to check that governments are going to meet their collective targets to limit global warming.

Its convenors have been gathering input and data from governments, campaigners and scientists and published a report summarising the evidence a month ago.

Danish climate minister Dan Jorgensen and South Africa’s environment minister Barbara Creecy are jointly leading the response to the global stocktake report.

The two hosted climate ministers at the United Nations in New York last month. That closed-door meeting helped inform the UN’s new document.

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Stockholm Environment Institute researcher Richard Klein told Climate Home that the document was further proof that "the collective sense of urgency to act is undeniable".

But, he added that government negotiations on which bits of the paper to agree on at Cop28 "will still prove really difficult".

"Despite what appear to be unanimous calls for greater ambition, there is no guarantee that the outcome of Cop28 will be an ambitious one", he said.

This article was corrected on 6/10 to remove references to phasing out fossil fuels by 2040 being in the document. While the target was in a UNFCCC summary of the document and was mentioned by Simon Stiell at a press conference, it does not appear in the actual document.

This article was edited on 11/10 to say that the document's reference to phasing out fossil fuel production ahead of 2030 only applies to developed countries, rather than all countries, as originally written. The document's exact wording is "Support differentiated pathways for countries in pursuit of net zero and fossil fuel phase down where no further exploration of fossil fuel is targeted well ahead of 2030". A UNFCCC spokesperson told Climate Home "this submission by [the African Group] refers to developed countries".

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The Global Stocktake report, the latest warning from the U.N. about environmental perils, will form the basis of the COP28 talks in Dubai at the end of the year and follows months of terrifying wildfires and soaring temperatures.

The UN report, culminating a two-year evaluation of the 2015 Paris climate agreement goals, distils thousands of submissions from experts, governments and campaigners.

“The Paris Agreement has driven near-universal climate action by setting goals and sending signals to the world regarding the urgency of responding to the climate crisis,” it said. “While action is proceeding, much more is needed now on all fronts.”

The UN report also calls on governments to scale up renewable energy and phase out all “unabated” fossil fuels, adding both are “indispensible” for a clean energy transition.

Nearly 200 countries agreed in 2015 Paris to limit warming to no more than 2 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and to strive to keep the increase to 1.5 C.

While each country is responsible for deciding its own climate actions, they also agreed to submit to a progress report by 2023 to see what more should be done. More than 130 countries sent their submissions.

The U.N. said existing national pledges to cut emissions were insufficient to keep temperatures within the 1.5 C threshold. More than 20 gigatonnes of further CO2 reductions were needed this decade – and global net zero by 2050 – in order to meet the goals, the U.N. assessment said.

Bold to-do list

The report urged countries to cut the use of “unabated” coal power by 67-92% by 2030, compared to 2019, and to virtually eliminate it as a source of electricity by 2050.

Low and zero-carbon electricity should account for as much as 99% of the global total by mid-century, and technological challenges holding back carbon capture must be resolved.

The report also called for funding to be unlocked to support low-carbon development, noting that billions of dollars were still being invested in fossil fuels.

“It serves up a bold to-do list for governments to limit warming to 1.5C and protect people everywhere from climate devastation,” said Tom Evans, policy advisor on climate diplomacy at British climate think tank E3G.

Commitment was needed to phase out fossil fuels, set 2030 targets for renewable energy expansion, ensure the financial system funds climate action, and raise funds for adaptation and damage, he said.

“Anything less will fall short on the necessary steps laid out in this report.”

Real commitments

Sultan Al Jaber, who will preside over the Nov. 30-Dec. 12 summit in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told Reuters the stocktake gave good direction, and urged states and private sector leader to come to COP28 with real commitments.

“To keep 1.5 within reach we must act with ‘ambition and urgency’ to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030,” Al Jaber said in a statement.

UN Climate Change chief, Simon Stiell, urged governments to “carefully study the findings of the report and ultimately understand what it means for them and the ambitious action they must take next.”

On Friday, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres told G20 bloc leaders that they have the power to reset a climate crisis that is “spinning out of control”.

The post UN says more needed ‘on all fronts’ to meet climate goals appeared first on Climate Home News.

This health check is known as the global stocktake and work toward it began at Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021.

After a lot of hard work, it now entering the home stretch before taking centre stage when governments gather at the Cop28 climate talks in Dubai.

It will tell us whether enough is being done on cutting emissions, adapting to climate change, funding climate action and rolling-out technology.

The answer is widely expected to be a resounding ‘no’. But observers hope the latest wake-up call will prompt countries to correct course and raise their efforts.

For Simon Stiell, the head of the UN’s climate change arm, the stocktake will be a moment of truth. “It must tell us where we are, where we need to go, and how we’ll get there”, he said.

A two-year process

Its final report will be the culmination of an extensive two-year process. Thousands of documents have been analysed and distilled through hundreds of hours of discussions.

Analysts don’t expect the stocktake to  say anything particularly new. Report after report has already said the world is falling short.

But its findings will form the basis of the discussions at Cop28. Political leaders will reflect on them and may come up with a plan to fix their shortcomings.

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Tom Evans, climate diplomacy analyst at E3G, hopes the stocktake will be “a launchpad for action going forward”.

The Stockholm Environment Institue’s Richard Klein, who is involved in the process, says there is lots of curiosity about how countries will react. “Are they going to commit to greater ambition or simply express concern once again?” he asked

Why a stocktake?

The stocktake is the central tool of the Paris Agreement to hold countries accountable for their collective efforts to achieve the targets they set themselves in 2015.

It tracks progress made on the pact’s three pillars: cut greenhouse gas emissions enough to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C; strengthen resilience to climate impacts; and provide the necessary financial and technological means to make this happen.

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The stocktake is a core component of the so-called ‘ratchet mechanism’ built into the agreement.

It was clear from the outset that initial climate pledges would not be sufficient to meet the goals set in Paris. So the agreement encourages countries to raise their ambitions over time.

A virtuous circle

Carried out every five years from 2023, the stocktake is meant to guide countries as they update and enhance their pledges to bring them in line with the agreement.

At the heart of the exercise are the Nationally determined contributions (NDCs): each country’s individual strategy to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

The process should create a virtuous circle. The collective analysis of all NDCs submitted by the 193 countries which signed the Paris agreement forms the basis for the stocktake’s findings. These will in turn inform the drafting of new and more robust NDCs.

The two-year stocktake is divided into three phases: the collection of source material; the technical assessment; the consideration of its output at a political level.

The first two phases – which overlap – are soon drawing to a close.

Information gathering

The volume of the material inputted into the exercise is massive. Countries and non-state actors have submitted thousands of documents.

The bulk of it is made up of the signatories’ NDCs, national adaptation plans, finance reports and technology needs assessments.

Add to this the IPCC scientific reports, technical analysis prepared by the UN climate change Secretariat and a long list of disparate contributions by NGOs.

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“Just considering the adaptation chapter, if we put together what countries have written over the past few years it adds up to 18,000 pages,” says Richard Klein. “No one is going to be able to read all of that.”

The UN climate change secretariat has a coordinating role in sifting through the vast mass of information and preparing briefings and synthesis reports.

Technical analysis

This material is then analysed and discussed during the technical assessment. This second phase of the stocktake will have lasted for one year when it formally ends at the annual Bonn climate talks in June.

The assessment culminates in a series of in-person meetings of country delegates and experts in an ‘open and transparent’ process. After reviewing the inputs, they are expected to come up with the key takeaways on the collective efforts to uphold the Paris Agreement.

Contributions to a Global Stocktake discussion are recorded on a flip chart. Photo: IISD/ENB | Kiara Worth

Each meeting produces a summary report which captures the nature of the discussions and gives hints on what the final stocktake will feature.

E3G’s Tom Evans says the assessment is already clear. “We’re not making progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement fast enough. We’re way off track across almost everything”, he added.

“Inadequate progress”

The latest summary report – published last month – does indeed say there has been “significant yet inadequate collective progress”. On both the cutting emissions and adaptating fronts, it says not only that the current plans are insufficient. But there are even problems in translating this inadequate ambition into real action, the so-called implementation gap.

After the final technical dialogue in June, the stocktake will enter its final, and most crucial, phase.

The recommendations featured in the final synthesis report will take center stage at Cop28 in Dubai. Here the technicians will hand the baton to the politicians. The goal is to ensure this lengthy exercise has a tangible real-world impact.

Enter the politicians

Leaders will kick off negotiations which should lead to a series of key political messages being featured in the Cop’s declaration. These will provide the guidance countries should follow to update their national plans.

“Every group and every country will have its own priorities and pet issues they would like to see reflected in the decision,” says Richard Klein. “They will all have their red lines.”

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Tom Evans says ultimately some “champions” will need to step forward and broker an ambitious deal.

This could be the UAE Presidency, which is keen to have a breakthrough moment in Dubai. Despite its reliance on fossil fuels, the country seems to be warming to the idea of a fossil fuel phase out.

Governments failed to agree on that wording at last year’s summit, as fossil fuel producers Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran were opposed.

That language’s inclusion at Cop28 will give a strong sense of direction, particularly if the words “unabated”, which means without carbon capture technology, are not added.

But, ultimately, the success or failure of the stocktake will become evident in 2025 by which time governments are supposed to have released their next batch of NDCs.

Only then we will be able to see if countries have raised their game to finally deliver the Paris Agreement.

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