Former and current FAO officials and academics have criticised the document, seen by Climate Home News, for pro-industry bias, cherry-picking data and even “disinformation” about the environmental impacts of animal farming. 

The FAO told Climate Home that a final version of the report – part of an assessment consisting of various documents – would be launched in 2025 and that conclusions should not be drawn from the draft text at this stage. 

Estimates of livestock’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions vary, ranging from 12%-20% of the global total – mostly in the form of methane from ruminants like cows and sheep, and carbon dioxide (CO2) released when forests are cut down for pasture.  

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Methane, which is emitted in cow burps and manure, is a short-lived greenhouse gas that is 84 times more potent than CO2 over 20 years, making it one of the few available levers to prevent climate tipping points being reached in the near term.   

In a 2024 survey of more than 200 scientists and sustainable agriculture experts, about 78% said livestock numbers should peak globally by 2025 to start bringing down emissions and help keep global warming to internationally agreed limits.   

But the FAO’s draft study offers strong support for growth of the sector, saying livestock’s contributions to food security, nutrition and raw materials for industry make it a “linchpin for human well-being and economic development”.  

It is also described as “critical” for food security, “crucial” for global economies, and “indispensable” for development in sub-Saharan Africa.  

World Bank tiptoes into fiery debate over meat emissions

The report will be submitted to the FAO’s agriculture committee, which has 130 member nations, although the text could change as national representatives thrash out a final version. 

Private-sector lobbyists participating as advisors in national delegations are sometimes also able to influence texts under discussion, according to a July report by the Changing Markets Foundation. 

One FAO insider, who did not want to be named, told Climate Home the draft FAO report had been “biased towards pushing livestock [with] many national interests behind it”.   

The FAO receives around a third of its budget in direct donations from member countries, and the rest in voluntary contributions from the same states and other actors, including businesses and trade associations.   

Tech fixes  

The 491-page draft report, which was overseen by a scientific advisory committee of 23 experts and peer reviewers, does not assess how diets with more plant protein could improve food security.   

One advisory committee member, Professor Frederic Leroy of Vrije Universiteit Brussel, told Climate Home a shift to entirely plant-based diets “would severely compromise the potential for food security worldwide because many of the food nutrients which are already limited in global diets are found in livestock. How much you can move (away from livestock) should be the real investigation.” 

This table from a World Bank report (Recipe for a Livable Planet), published in May 2024, shows that vegan diets are the lowest in emissions (Screenshot/World Bank)

The report’s analysis assumes rising meat production as demand surges among a growing world population with higher incomes. In this context, it proposes “expanding the (livestock) herd size”, increasing production through intensified systems, better use of genetic techniques, and improved land management.   

“Technological innovations” such as feed additives and supplements to suppress methane are another idea backed by the FAO. Those could include experimental methods such as a vaccine announced last week and funded by a $9-million grant from the Bezos Earth Fund that aims to reduce the number and activity of methane-producing microbes in a cow’s stomach.    

Herdsman Musa takes cattle to graze along the Dodowa-Somenya road in Ghana, April 12, 2024. According to environmentalist Kwame Ansah, ‘The unchecked grazing is not only destroying crops but also eroding soil fertility exacerbating land degradation.’ (Photo: Matrix Images/Christian Thompson/via Reuters)

The report’s findings, once approved, will be fed into a three-part roadmap for bringing agricultural emissions in line with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.  

The first instalment, published at the COP28 climate summit, was viewed internally by some FAO experts as a generic placeholder which largely followed an industry-friendly agenda.    

One ex-FAO official, who requested anonymity, told Climate Home the latest draft report on livestock ploughs a similar furrow and would set expectations for part two of the 1.5C roadmap.   

“The reality is that if they do a (nearly) 500-page report and put 23 experts’ names in front of it, it’s to impress you and say: ‘This is what is going to happen. We’re going to defend the sector’,” the former UN official said.  

Making the case for meat 

The expert added that the study’s panel was skewed toward intensified livestock systems and had “cherry picked” evidence to justify recommendations pointing in that direction.  

Several of the report’s advisory committee members have previously advocated for meat-based diets, and 11 of the study’s contributors work for the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), including one of the paper’s committee advisors.

According to the ex-FAO official, ILRI “has been pushing intensified livestock all its life. It’s their identity. It’s what they do.”

The institute co-founded an agribusiness-backed initiative – Pathways to Dairy Net Zero (P2DNZ) – which de-emphasised livestock emissions, framing them as just one of several problems for the industry to tackle.

ILRI did not respond to a request for comment.

IPCC’s input into key UN climate review at risk as countries clash over timeline

Shelby C. McClelland, of New York University’s Center for Environmental and Animal Protection, told Climate Home she was shocked by a repeated claim in the draft FAO report of “a lack of consensus among scientists regarding the contribution of livestock to global greenhouse gas emissions”.  

“This downplays and outright ignores overwhelming scientific evidence from the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], high-profile papers, and other recent studies,” McClelland said. “A statement like this in a supposedly scientific and evidenced-based review by the UN FAO is alarming given their influence on agenda-setting for global climate action.”

Advisory committee member Leroy countered that it was “dangerous” to talk about a scientific consensus when the metrics used to measure methane compared to other greenhouse gases are constantly evolving.  

“This should be part of an open and transparent debate,” he added. “I don’t think we have reached consensus on the way we interpret the effects of livestock agriculture on climate change, the degree of it, how we can measure it and how we can deal with it.” 

Scientists at the FAO first alerted the world to the meat industry’s climate footprint when they attributed 18% of global emissions to livestock farming in the seminal 2006 study, Livestock’s Long Shadow. This analysis found that, far from enhancing food security, “livestock actually detract more from total food supply than they provide.”  

However, the paper sparked a backlash felt by key experts in the agency’s Rome headquarters, as the FAO hierarchy, industry lobbyists and state donors to its biannual $1-billion budget exerted pressure for a change of direction.      

By the time of last December’s COP28, the FAO’s stance had shifted so far that two experts cited in another livestock emissions study called publicly for its retraction. They argued it had distorted their work and underestimated the emissions reduction potential from farming less livestock by a factor of between 6 and 40. 

A deforested and burnt area is seen in an indigenous area used as cattle pasture in Areoes, Mato Grosso state, Brazil, September 4, 2019. (Photo: REUTERS/Lucas Landau)

No ‘carte blanche’ 

Guy Pe’er, a conservation ecologist at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, accused the FAO of turning a blind eye to widespread “hyper-intensive grazing practices” and land use change caused by the world’s growing number of mega-farms.

“We’re currently using more land to feed livestock than humans, and that is causing rapid deforestation in Brazil. Ignoring that is outrageous. When an official organisation is producing disinformation like this, I find it extremely irresponsible,” he said.  

Leroy told Climate Home that different types of livestock farming should not be conflated. “If you have over-grazing and the pollution of water sources, that’s clearly wrong, but other types of animal agriculture are also net-positive [for the environment],” he said.  

If the advisory committee “sees advantages in having livestock agriculture as part of the food system, I think there’s a sound scientific basis to assume that,” he added. “It doesn’t mean that it’s carte blanche or ‘anything goes’ at all.” 

(Reporting by Arthur Neslen; editing by Megan Rowling and Joe Lo)

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It must be said: it is impossible to imagine Nigeria’s path to decarbonization without imagining it being fully lined with trees. There is a critical need to address deforestation, transform agricultural practices, and harness nature-based solutions like afforestation and reforestation if Nigeria were serious about reaching net zero by 2060 – a commitment the Nigerian government made at COP26 in Glasgow.

Nigeria is an oil giant in Africa, and unsurprisingly, most of its plans on decarbonization focus on the transition to renewable energy. Previously, Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan had not considered the country’s emissions from the agriculture, forests, and land-use (AFOLU) sector.

However, our new report, which looks at different pathways for Nigeria to reach its net-zero-by-2060 goal, found Nigeria’s AFOLU sector has contributed the largest sectoral emissions at 30%, compared to the oil and gas sector at 29%. So while it is good that Nigeria has set its eyes on transforming the energy sector, it is also true that only in a renewable energy scenario that also transforms the AFOLU sector can Nigeria achieve its commitment of net zero by 2060 which will allow Nigeria’s economy to grow alongside reaching its sustainability goals.

“Two steps forward, two steps back” – Governments off course for forest protection target

One of the main drivers of Nigeria’s AFOLU emissions is land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). The last decade has seen relentless deforestation in Nigeria, with Global Forest Watch data revealing that from 2010 to 2019, Nigeria lost 86,700 hectares of tropical forest. Alarming as this may be, without immediate action, an additional 25% of our remaining forests could vanish by 2060. The cause of deforestation is a confluence of different factors, including the population’s lack of access to electricity and increasing poverty rates.

The stark reality is that nearly one in three people in the country lack access to electricity. This energy disparity leads many to rely on traditional, polluting methods for energy generation, such as burning wood. Additionally, less than a quarter of Nigerians have access to “clean cooking,” forcing the majority—primarily women—to rely on inefficient and polluting cookstoves, using wood for fuel.

This reliance on wood for energy generation and fuel is a significant driver of deforestation in Nigeria, and is also a major contributing factor to residential emissions. Improving access to clean cooking is not only pivotal in reducing emissions but also a crucial step towards mitigating deforestation.

According to the World Bank, four in ten Nigerians – or about 80 million people – were living in poverty in 2019. A report by Mongabay revealed that with lack of available jobs, Nigerian forests are being lost to farming and logging. Here, the message is clear: we can only save our forests and be truly on our way to net zero if we address poverty and social inequalities.

Reversing deforestation is not an impossible feat, but it demands a commitment to reforestation efforts – a 2.3% annual reforestation rate – and addressing other root causes of the problem including access to electricity, job creation, and a reduction in poverty.  With reforestation efforts, Nigeria can not only halt the degradation but also bolster its carbon sink capacity, a crucial element in achieving the net-zero goal by 2060.

The commitment to net zero is not just an environmental pledge but a blueprint for economic growth and prosperity that aligns with our broader sustainability goals. It is time for Nigeria to seize the opportunity and lead the charge towards a greener, more resilient future.

The post Nigeria’s path to net zero should be fully lined with trees – and fairness appeared first on Climate Home News.

As global policymakers, nonprofit advocates and industry leaders meet this week in Geneva to turn lofty promises to slash methane emissions into meaningful action, a crucial stakeholder will largely be missing from the table: the private sector.

The aim of the 2024 Global Methane Forum is to build on the Cop26 climate summit, where more than 150 countries pledged to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030, as well as other methane commitments made at last year’s Cop28.

But ratcheting up private sector action remains a looming agenda item. Because for all those promises, we aren’t seeing the companies in the sectors that contribute most to humanity’s methane emissions – agriculture and energy – take the ambitious steps needed to fulfill them.

In fact, new findings show the energy industry’s methane emissions didn’t budge last year from a near all-time high. Nor have we seen enough investors step up to drive this needed action in the companies they hold.

Fossil fuel industry under pressure to cut record-high methane emissions

Food companies’ agricultural activities, especially raising livestock, and fossil fuel operations, largely from oil and gas companies, are responsible for nearly equal parts of 75% of human-caused methane emissions worldwide.

Food and energy corporations must confront the escalating material financial risks they face from climate change. Lowering methane emissions is one of the fastest and most cost-effective ways to slow the overheating of our planet in the short term.

There are three key actions companies across both sectors can take to mitigate their main sources of methane pollutants – and in doing so, accelerate the transition to more sustainable and resilient systems for feeding and powering our world.

Disclose plans for reducing emissions

Before they can tackle them, companies need to understand what their methane emissions are, where they come from, and how they can reduce them. These details should be disclosed in their transition plans so that external stakeholders, including investors who use the information to evaluate climate risk in their portfolios, can hold companies accountable for voluntary methane commitments.

More major food companies benchmarked by Ceres in our investor-led Food Emissions 50 initiative are reporting the drivers of their supply chain emissions, but only a few, such as Yum! Brands and Starbucks, have disclosed how they address livestock emissions. Since most of the sector’s methane emissions – and around 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions – stem from livestock, it’s critical that companies include this in their plans.

Oil and gas companies, for their part, should join sector-wide efforts like the United Nations Environment Programme’s Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, which seeks to improve accuracy and transparency of methane data and track corporate progress. Over 130 businesses globally are participating in this partnership and have committed to report their measurement-based emissions, set a methane reduction target, and submit an implementation plan.

Leverage technology

In both sectors, companies must embrace existing and emerging technologies for the global community to successfully reach its methane reduction goals.

Food companies won’t be able to meet their emissions targets using current agricultural technologies and practices, but livestock emissions could be cut substantially through sustainable changes to farming practices. Companies will have to invest in, and incentivise farmers to adopt, new technologies that are already gaining traction, such as seaweed feed additives for cattle, and other proven and ready-to-deploy methods for curtailing agricultural methane.

To achieve net zero by 2050, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations need to fall by around 75% between 2022 and 2030. That may seem like an enormous task, but oil and gas companies can avoid more than 75% of current emissions using known technology, including replacing methane-emitting equipment with zero-emitting alternatives, with close to 50% of emissions avoidable at no net cost.

Despite Putin promises, Russia’s emissions keep rising

Advocate for new policies

Government policies can create new opportunities and mandates that support sector-wide methane action – and companies need to advocate for them. Ahead of Cop27, 800-plus investors representing nearly $42 trillion assets under management signalled just how essential policies are to reaching a net zero economy when they called on governments to radically increase their climate ambition.

Recently, we have seen new policies open important pathways for funding and advancing lower-emissions agricultural solutions, such as when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration streamlined the process for methane-inhibiting feed additives to gain regulatory approval last month. Before and at Cop28, the European Union adopted more stringent regulations, and Canada proposed robust regulations to significantly reduce oil and gas methane emissions.

With the international climate community’s eyes on methane this week, and 2030 rapidly approaching, it’s time to focus on igniting action where the opportunity – and responsibility – for cutting emissions is the greatest. If food and fossil-fuel companies do not clean up their operations, they will not be able to uphold their climate commitments, nor will we meet our global methane goals.

The post Companies still missing in action on methane-cutting goals appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Flickr/Bert van Dijk)

By Sophie Yeo

Global greenhouse gas emissions could rise by around 2.5% in 2015, an increase on 2013 levels but lower than the average over the past decade, according to analysts at consultancy firm PwC.

Economic momentum around the world is expected to pick up over the coming 12 months, with PwC and the International Monetary Fund predicting growth of 3.5-3.8%, compared to 3.3% in 2014.

“Global GDP is expected to grow at 3.5% per year, and so if we’re decarbonising our economy about 0.9% per year, it’s reasonable to expect emissions to grow 2.5% in 2015,” said PwC’s sustainability director Jonathan Grant, who worked on their Global Economy Watch report.

Despite efforts to limit emissions around the world, the reduction in the amount of carbon used in a unit of GDP – known as carbon intensity – has stabilised at around 1% per year, said Grant.

PwC expect US economic growth to hit 3%, the highest since 2005, but China’s could slow to 7.2%, the country’s lowest since 1990.

Their projections estimate that oil prices will stay between $60-70 over the course of 2015 and finish at around $80.

But a further slump in crude oil prices could lead to rapidly increased demand, hitting global efforts to decarbonise transport systems.

Slow decarbonisation

Greenhouse gas emission rates usually rise in line with the economy, as countries base their development on carbon intensive industries.

The average growth in emissions over the last decade – excluding the global financial crisis between 2007-2012 was 3.8% per year.

A 2.5% growth in emissions in 2015 would represent a positive disruption to this trend, suggesting that governments are having some success in decoupling emissions and economic growth.

But it would also represent an increase in the rate of emissions from 2013. Statistics for this year released in December by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency showed that emissions grew at 2%.

PwC’s own calculations concluded they were slightly lower at 1.8%, the slowest rate since 2008-09, when the global recession put the breaks on emissions.

Levels of carbon pollution in the EU have sharply declined since the 1990s, but many attribute this more to the movement of heavy industry to other parts of the world with fewer environmental regulations.

Any growth in emissions at all risks ratcheting temperatures closer to the 2C mark, which governments have set as the international target of the UN’s climate negotiations.

Scientists say less than 1000 gigatonnes of CO2 (GTCO2), or about 30 years of emissions, can be released from burning fossil fuels before warming of dangerous levels is locked into the earth’s system.

Beyond this point, the impacts of climate change become disastrous, particularly for poor nations that cannot afford to adapt, scientists have warned.

PwC’s Low Carbon Economy Index warns that the world needs to decarbonise its economy at the much faster rate of 6.2% every year between now and 2020 to avoid crossing this threshold.

This is around five times the current speed, and based on projections for GDP growth would require absolute reductions in emissions of around 2-3% every year, said Grant.

Tough target

He added that governments need to be more honest about the difficulty of achieving the 2C target, which may no longer even be viable.

“I don’t think they’re being clear that we’re way off track,” he said.

“I think [US climate envoy] Todd Stern has discussed this in the past, about how far we are from the 2C carbon budget, but there are not many other countries that are being really clear that we’ve got a long way to go to achieve that 2C trajectory.”

The most vulnerable countries, in particular the small island nations, are calling for an even tougher 1.5C target.

And one option on the table for the UN’s climate treaty next year is total decarbonisation by 2050, which would require deep and immediate emissions reductions.

Grant added: “The fact that our emissions are rising today and are expected to carry on rising into the 2020s is an indication of the challenge that we’ll have to make those radical emissions reductions consistent to that 2C carbon budget.”

The post Global carbon emissions to rise 2.5% in 2015 – PwC appeared first on Climate Home News.

Major economies are getting less carbon-intensive
(Pic: Flickr/kris krug)

By Megan Darby

Global carbon dioxide emissions growth is slowing down as major economies get cleaner, Dutch researchers have found.

While Sunday’s global climate agreement in Lima made only incremental progress to prevent dangerous global warming, economic growth is getting less dependent on polluting activities.

Emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial sources increased to a record 35.3 billion tonnes in 2013, PBL revealed – 2% higher than 2012.

That is a smaller rise than the 3.8% average over the last decade, a slowdown PBL called “remarkable” in a year the global economy grew 3.1%.

It is a mixed picture, with sharper rises of 6.2% in Brazil, 4.4% in India and 4.2% in China, while the European Union’s emissions decreased 1.4%.

US emissions rose 2.5%, reflecting a shift from gas back to coal for power production and higher gas demand for heating.

Overall, the data shows a progressive decoupling of global emissions and economic growth, said PBL, an advisory body to the Netherlands government.

Climate expert Niklas Hohne warned against reading too much into one year’s figures, but agreed there were “some positive movements”.

These were driven by governments, he told RTCC, for example half of countries have some kind of energy efficiency standard for buildings.

BRIEFING: The Lima call for climate action

A separate assessment from six European institutions, including PBL, highlighted the need for more carbon cutting policies.

Emissions targets set by major economies will cut the global warming trajectory 1-1.5C compared to business as usual, it found.

China’s recent pledge to peak emissions around 2030, in particular, is expected to halve its cumulative total.

Yet the results fall short of the 2C warming limit negotiators agreed in 2009 to work towards. Beyond that, scientists say the impacts of climate change will get more extreme and unpredictable.

The “Lima call for climate action” asks countries to publish further carbon cutting plans in early 2015.

These will be reviewed by the UN before the next round of talks, in Paris, where negotiators are due to strike a global climate deal.

There needs to be “a race to the top”, said Hohne, with countries competing to offer the most ambitious plans, for Paris to come up with a strong result.

Detlef van Vuuren, senior researcher at PBL and co-leader of the project, emphasised the relevance of the study to international negotiations.

“Our scenarios show the importance of a near-term peak in all global regions to avoid rapid and expensive emission reductions later,” he said.

The cheapest way to meet the 2C goal includes “a significant contribution” from the developing world, added report coordinator Massimo Tavoni.

“This could create unfair distribution of costs. Compensatory measures could address these.”

That will require some US$100-150 billion a year by 2030 from the international community, the report advised.

Meanwhile, weather data from NOAA showed the first 11 months of 2014 have been the hottest such period on record.

The average surface temperature over land and sea was 0.68C higher than the 20^th century average, it calculated.

November was the joint 7th warmest ever, putting the world on course for its highest annual temperature.

The post Emissions growth slows as economies clean up – research appeared first on Climate Home News.

By John McGarrity

The European Parliament yesterday backed the world’s most stringent standards on carbon dioxide emissions for new cars, a move that could shrink the EU’s carbon footprint by 442 million tonnes by 2030.   

The new rules limit emissions to 95 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre (g/km) as an average across all new cars sold in the 28-nation bloc from 2021, compared with an existing limit of 130 g/km.

The vote will mean a one-year delay in implementing the tighter emissions standards compared to what was proposed by the European Commission, following intense lobbying by German carmakers.

The EU’s climate commissioner and former Danish environment minister, Connie Hedegaard, used a German term to welcome the vote for tougher standards.

“Ende gut, alles gut (all’s well that ends well)”, she said in a statement.

She added: “The 95g target is achievable by employing technologies available today. But it is clear that long-term clarity is important for the car industry. This is why the Commission will now focus on the next step and come up with ideas for a post-2020 target in the coming months”.

Analysis: Does BMW’s new i3 range mean it’s going green?

EU economic modelling shows that the tougher emissions standards would mean a total cut in a CO2 emissions from cars and vans of around 422 Mt CO2 up to 2030.

“This one year delay to the car emissions law was an unnecessary weakening to please luxury German carmakers. Nevertheless, the final agreement is still a good deal for the environment, EU economy and drivers – reducing fuel use and CO2 emissions by 27% over 6 years,” said Greg Archer of environmental group Transport and Environment.

However the green group said the improved car fuel efficiency in 2020 would be much less than officially stated unless a new testing system is introduced as part of the new emissions standards.

It added: “The current test is unrepresentative, with weak rules that carmakers manipulate leading to fuel economy figures on average 23% worse in tests than typically achieved on the roads.”

Carmakers such as BMW and Daimler Chrysler had argued that the tougher emissions standards would be extremely tough to meet and argued for extra time to implement them in new models.

Exposed: Why UK, Germany and Poland blocked new standards

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Energy commissioner Gunter Oettinger is fighting a public battle against a 40% emissions reduction target (Source: European Parliament)

By Sophie Yeo

Splits have emerged in Brussels over the EU’s 2030 climate package, just a week after the proposals were announced by the Commission.

Energy commissioner Günther Oettinger yesterday attacked the EU’s decision to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030, calling the target “arrogant or stupid”.

He argued that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would not be worth the financial effort on the part of the EU, since the 28-state bloc is only responsible for a fraction of global emissions.

“Every percentage going down gets more difficult and cost intensive,” he told an industry conference organised by BusinessEurope, an influential lobby group frequently blamed for opposing ambitious EU climate targets.

The EU is currently responsible for just under 11% of global emissions today, he noted, and this is projected to drop to just 4.5% by 2030.

He continued: “To think that with this 4.5% of global emissions you can save the world is not realistic. It is arrogant or stupid. We need a global commitment.”

Old Skool reaction. Addressing climate is also about efficiency, future proof economy, de-risking assets. http://t.co/sdCjCScdzK

— Maas Goote (@maasgoote) January 29, 2014

Oettinger is known to have fought against the 40% target while negotiations were taking place, favouring a reduction of 35%.

His comments are significant given he shared a podium with EC President Jose Manuel Barosso and climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard last week at the launch of the 2030 climate and energy package that included the 40% reduction target.

“I have to be constructive as I’m a member of the team but I’m sceptical,” Oettinger told the BusinessEurope conference.

The EU is currently expected to cut emissions 35% from 1990 levels by the middle of the next decade. This has prompted criticism from green groups that a 40% cut by 2030 isn’t much more than business-as-usual, and will fail to set an example to other large emitters at UN climate talks.

International deal

The package, which also includes an EU-wide target for renewable energy, still needs to be passed by the European Council and EU Parliament before it becomes legislation.

Some countries at UN climate talks say EU targets will be crucial to negotiations for a new international global treaty on climate change ahead of a crunch conference in Paris in late 2015.

Speaking at King’s College London yesterday, climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard emphasised that Europe had the responsibility to take the first step.

“We are still the world’s largest economy,” she said. “We cannot just point fingers and say, ‘After you, sir.’ The whole world is looking to Europe and Europe’s leadership and saying, ‘If you can show us we can decouple economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions, then we might be able also to do it.’”

The final package secured by the EU will form the basis of its proposed contribution to UN talks.

The official deadline for proposals is the first quarter of 2015, when other large emitters such as the US are expected to submit their plans to the UN.

Last month, Poland’s Environment Secretary Marcin Korolec said that Europe should not act ahead of the rest of the world, as it risked being “abandoned” by less ambitious countries.

Old battle lines

Oettinger’s position on the 40% target is not new, and is his personal opinion, a spokesperson for the EC’s climate arm told RTCC.

“The Commission’s position is 40%. It’s in Europe’s economic interest…Commissioners should be loyal to what the [overall] Commission has defended and stand by what the Commission has approved.”

Observers of the EU process say it could be at least a year of many meetings and political bargaining before 28 EU governments are likely to agree on a document that can be signed into law.

“Europe has this tendency of debating with ourselves endlessly,” said Hedegaard.

The post EU energy chief labels new climate targets “stupid” appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Pete Souza/White House)

By John McGarrity

US President Obama will likely use his State of the Union address later today pledge the use of executive powers to bypass Congress on curbing coal and encouraging renewables, but the announcement of landmark new polices is unlikely.

Because the speech is usually a broad brush outline of the all the main priorities – both domestic and foreign – Obama’s comments on climate and energy are likely to focus on how he will deliver the “climate action plan” announced last June, bypassing a hostile Congress if necessary.

Dirk Forrister, a former climate advisor to President Clinton and the head of a carbon trading lobby, said Obama may signal that he prefers a new federal law to cut emissions.

Or at the very least, Obama is likely to remind Congress he can use his existing authority to the maximum by regulating coal-fired power through the Clean Air Act.

“Hopefully, he’ll make clear that he has directed EPA to find ways to include market-based measures for states like California to keep up the good work they have underway through their cap-and-trade programme,” Forrister said.

Strong US policies to limit domestic greenhouse gas emissions are seen as critical to the success of a proposed UN climate treaty, which is set to be signed in Paris in little over 22 months time. The country is the world’s second largest source of climate-warming gases after China.

Bully pulpit

The address, which is usually delivered to an audience of Congress and broadcast across US Networks, last year outlined plans to use the power of the presidency to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

This was later backed up in June by a plan to curb coal and encourage renewables and using the Environmental Protection Agency if necessary, a proposal strongly opposed by Republican legislators on Capitol Hill.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell earlier this month tried to force a Senate vote on one of the main regulations in the climate plan, a move that would compel Democrats in coal mining areas to take a public stance on the controversial rule heading into midterm elections in November.

“Even one line mentioning a particular issue can generate a great deal of reaction just because it has managed to make it into the State of the Union speech. But once the hubbub dies down after a few days it’s all about delivery,” said Jake Schmidt of the Natural Resources Defence Council, an environmental think tank.

@johnpodesta on NPR this AM: Obama has “warmed up” to bypassing congress, including for climate policy.

— Stephen Lacey (@Stphn_Lacey) January 28, 2014

Obama’s former top energy and climate adviser, Carol Browner, told reporters last week that Obama will vow in the State of the Union address  to get the job done on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

However the President is thought unlikely to signal policies that would mean major changes to an ‘all-of the-above’ strategy that aims to encourage wind, solar, biomass but also provides incentives for efficient coal-fired power stations,  as well as fracking for shale gas and oil.

A boom in output of oil and gas from unconventional sources has created hundreds of thousands of new jobs, driven down energy prices and reduced US dependence on imports, benefits Obama is likely to sell again to the US public this evening.

Tougher regulations

Some left-leaning think tanks want to see the President pick clear winners in the US energy industry, such as extending tax breaks for renewable energy.

They also want a continued moratorium on Arctic drilling and the 40-year ban on US oil exports to be maintained.

Obama is unlikely to give clues in tonight’s speech on whether he will approve or block the highly controversial Keystone XL pipeline, as the president is likely to avoid many specific issues that are divisive within his own party, said Chip Knappenberger of the right-leaning Cato Institute.

“He’s got a lot on his plate, so I’d be surprised if energy and climate issues get more than a couple of lines in the entire speech,” he said.

Nor is Obama thought likely to link climate change and recent extreme weather events, such as the Polar Vortex that blasted much of the US with freezing temperatures.

While the president is still expected tonight to repeat his commitment to slowing the pace of climate change, he will probably be coy on details – such as post-2020 emissions cuts – as major emitters still have a year before they have to submit their plans to the UN.

Recent comments by Obama printed in the New Yorker appear to underline a growing concern in the White House that the talks to build a global deal to be signed in Paris next year are the last chance to curb rises in global temperatures.

The President was reported as saying “we’ll be four feet underwater” if China and India ended up consuming as much fossil-fuel generated energy as the USA.

The post State of the Union: How will Obama tackle climate change? appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: UpstateNYer)

By Nilima Choudhury 

High speed bus transit systems have the potential to improve local air quality by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, reduce travel time and prevent fatalities and crashes.

That’s the finding of the World Resources Institute in a new report, which says Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems are high-quality, efficient and offer capacity and speed comparable with urban metro systems.

BRT systems are typically designed like rail networks, with routes reserved solely for buses, platforms and off-bus payment kiosks.

As of October 2013, over 29 million passengers rode BRTs daily in 163 cities, with an additional 143 BRT systems currently being implemented or expanded.

“Our analysis shows the wide variety of benefits BRT can have on quality of life,” said Dr. Robin King, Director of Urban Development and Accessibility for EMBARQ and co-author of the report.

“In addition to saving people thousands of hours on the road, BRT is safer and causes less pollution than business as usual. With the findings and methodology we present, city officials can make better informed choices when shaping the future mobility of their cities.”

In Bogota, the implementation of TransMilenio combined with new regulations on fuel quality is estimated to save nearly 1 million tCO2 per year, which includes a 43% decline in sulphur dioxide emissions, 18% decline in NOx, and a 12% decline in particulate matter.

Costs

New transit systems which according to the report require only minor changes to roadways can cost in the range of $1–3.5 million per kilometre to build while major reconstruction of corridor roadways (i.e. tunnels, extensive simultaneous utility upgrades or station bypass lanes) require capital investment in the range of $3.8–12.5 million per kilometre.

Dr King told RTCC that another benefit is that BRT systems can be built faster than metro systems: “People need to move around now, they can’t necessarily wait for a metro system to be built.”

Average user fares in most systems were below $0.80 per trip as of 2009, with the exception of Curitiba and São Paulo whose fares are $1.27 and $1.33 respectively.

BRT systems have become an attractive financial investment opportunity, with HSBC bank one of the first to jump on board.

Graham Smith, director of project and export finance at HSBC told RTCC that the bank has always been open to bus transport projects.

“HSBC is quite unique among banks in having had a long standing historical connection with BRT. The first ever BRT [in 1975] was, and still is, based in Curitiba where HSBC’s Brazilian headquarters is located.

“This has meant HSBC being more open minded when bus transport projects are being suggested as an option, or as a solution for public transport, because we have seen it enacted very successfully.”

The post Bus rapid transits: a low cost solution to traffic pollution appeared first on Climate Home News.

By Nilima Choudhury

Believe it or not, the statistics indicate carbon trading is growing – nationally and internationally.

As of December 2013, 17 countries have carbon pricing mechanisms either running or planned. According to a recent study by the World Bank these cover greenhouse gas emissions of 10 GtCO2e/y, equal to 21% of the 50 GtCO2e emitted globally.

Historically the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) have dominated global markets. Both have suffered from plummeting carbon prices in the past year, a result of the economic slump post 2008 and the over-supply of credits.

But both markets are likely to be eclipsed by China, which is on course to roll out its fourth of seven pilot schemes, which will see it become the world’s epicentre of carbon trading. According to the government, by 2014 it could cover 700 million tonnes of emissions, and by 2020 it could be worth US$ 3.5 trillion.

“Two or three years from now, assuming current programmes run to schedule, carbon pricing will be in place in jurisdictions that together account for a little under a quarter of total global CO2 emissions from energy and industrial processes, Adam Whitmore of Rio Tinto told RTCC. “If carbon pricing in China extends nationally coverage will increase to over 40%.”

A graph from the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) illustrates how the sector has grown since 2002, with the green line representing the proportion of global CO2 emissions from energy and industry that are priced, and blue indicating the proportion of world energy & industry CO2 emissions occurring in jurisdictions with carbon pricing.

Below we have outlined the key markets set to dominate the sector in the coming decade.

(Source: IETA)

Chinese Certified Emissions Reductions (launched 2013)
China has pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 from 2005 levels and is developing at least seven pilot emissions trading schemes. Guangdong province will launch a CO2 emissions trading scheme in mid-December, following Shanghai and Beijing’s pilots last week. The smallest of the pilot markets is in Shenzhen which, unlike other schemes that cap emissions, its scheme is efficiency-based. Three more will follow next year.

Report: Shanghai & Beijing launch trading schemes

Mexican carbon credits MEXICO2 (2013)
The Mexico stock exchange’s first carbon credits trading platform, a non-binding initiative, launched in November 2013. Officials expect MEXICO2 to handle a million carbon credits in its first year of operation, doubling to two million in the second year with the aim of meeting its 30% reduction in CO2 emissions target by 2020.

Analysis: Mexico’s climate change laws

Alberta carbon pricing (2007)
Home to Canada’s tar sands, Alberta emits the highest amount of greenhouse gases of any Canadian province, accounting for roughly one-third of the country’s overall emissions in 2011. It was the first North American jurisdiction to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and implement a compliance carbon pricing program. For 2007-2011, Alberta’s carbon pricing system had achieved 32.3. million tons of reductions in CO2e and channelled $167 million into low-carbon projects.

Interview: Jody Williams on Alberta’s tar sands

EU Emissions Trading Scheme (2005)
Europe’s ETS is the biggest carbon market in the world, covering around 45% of the region’s greenhouse gas emissions. That’s more than 11,000 power stations and industrial plants in 28 countries, as well as airlines. It works on a cap and trade principle, with the ‘cap’ progressively cut forcing countries and businesses to develop more efficient and low carbon operations. In recent years it has struggled with plummeting prices of credits, but is still regarded as the gold standard for all carbon trading schemes.

Finance: EU directs 20% of budget to climate-related investments

Australian Direct Action Plan (2013)
It’s unclear whether Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s new climate plan will see carbon trading disappear, or continue under a new name. Abbott is trying to repeal Australia’s ‘carbon tax’ on the country’s highest emitters, and says he’s not convinced about the science behind climate change. But Peter Castellas, chief executive officer of the Carbon Market Institute, says proposed alternatives look like an emissions-trading system. “We will use architecture that is already in place and working well,” Environment Minister Greg Hunt is reported by Bloomberg as saying at the end of October.

Policy: Australia “should adopt 25% carbon reduction target”

US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (2009)
RGGI is a cooperative effort among nine Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the electric power sector through coordinated state cap and trade programs. Proceeds from the auctions are returned to the states and invested in energy efficiency, renewables, climate change abatement, and direct energy bill assistance. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) calculated that emissions in the RGGI region declined 33%.

Analysis: Is RGGI proof cap and trade works in the USA?

Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (2013)
In 2012, Kazakhstan began efforts to build a domestic ETS that began its pilot phase in January 2013. This market will aid the country in achieving its goal of reducing emissions 7% below 1990 levels by 2020, and it will make Kazakhstan the first Asian nation to undertake an economy-wide cap. Beginning in 2013, the Kazakh ETS imposed allowance surrender obligations on 178 companies, and the cap for these companies is 147 MtCO2e, which is the 2010 level for these capped companies, 55% of the nation’s total GHG output, and 77% of the country’s CO2 emissions.

Report: Kazakhstan contemplates Kyoto Protocol future

Californian Cap-and-Trade (2013)
It has been a year since California launched the US’ largest emissions cap-and-trade programme. By 2015, California’s program will expand to be about twice as large as RGGI. California’s economy-wide target for emissions reductions is to achieve 1990 level emissions by 2020. As the program progresses, both the portion of auctioned allowances and the scope of the cap will increase, resulting in anticipated auction proceeds of nearly USD $12 billion dollars in 2020. California will also be linking its programme with Quebec starting 1 January 2014.

Report: California and China sign climate pact

Québécois Cap-and-Trade (2009)
Despite Canada rescinding its Kyoto Protocol commitment, Québec adopted a greenhouse gas target of reducing emissions 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 in November 2009 using a cap-and-trade scheme. Four auctions of allowances per year, which began this year, are expected to raise a total of CAD $2.4 billion for the Action Plan on Climate Change. Approximately 96% of electricity in the province comes from renewable energy. As a result there are minimal reduction opportunities in the electricity and manufacturing sectors. Instead levies are placed on the transport sector.

New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (2008)
Under the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period (2008-2012), New Zealand committed to reducing its annual average CO2 emissions to 1990 levels with its ETS in force by September 2008. It is the only ETS in the world that includes emissions liabilities for land-use sectors: deforestation of pre-1990 forest land (as of 2008) and biological emissions from agriculture. However, in August 2013, Climate Change Minister Tim Grosser announced that it would adopt a 5% reduction target below 1990 levels by 2020. The country’s long-term target is a 50% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2050.

Analysis: Why are the Kiwis in a climate change coma?

Norwegian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act (2005)
The main Norwegian emissions mitigation policy is the GGETA which became active on 1 January 2005 and is one of the few countries in which a carbon tax and an emissions trading scheme significantly overlap. By 2020, Norway aims, as its Copenhagen Accord pledge, to reduce its GHG emissions by 30% relative to 1990 levels, and by 40% if there is an international agreement. The Norwegian emissions trading scheme was designed to be compatible with the EU ETS, and many of the features of the two programmes are similar.

Finance: Norway, UK & USA offer $280m for UN forests deal

South Korean Emissions Trading Scheme (2015)
Since 1990, Korean emissions have doubled and now slightly exceed Australia’s 600 million metric tons, making the country the world’s seventh largest greenhouse gas emitter. In April 2011, the South Korean government released its final draft for an emissions trading system, due to begin in 2015, modelled on the EU ETS, that outlines a three-phase programme. Korea also became the first Asian country to pass a national cap-and-trade system when the National Assembly passed this bill in 2012 almost unanimously.

Transport: South Korean city of Suwon goes ‘car free’

Swiss Reduction of CO2 Act (2008)
In 1999, Switzerland adopted the Act on the Reduction of CO2 Emissions (CO2 Act) as a supplementary environmental policy that centres on CO2 mitigation. The CO2 levy and voluntary ETS were designed to help achieve the Act’s goal of reducing emissions by 10% relative to 1990 levels by 2010. The total cap in that year was 3.42 MtCO2, covering approximately 7% of Swiss emissions. For 2013-2020, the Swiss ETS will move from a customized system to a standardised (EU-style) system, as Switzerland continues linkage negotiations with the EU.

UK Emissions Trading Scheme (2001)
The United Kingdom Emissions Trading System (UK ETS) was the first national, multi-sector emissions trading programme ever established to achieve its Kyoto Protocol commitment of 12.5% below 1990 emissions levels. 34 organizations and facilities agreed voluntarily to take part in the UK ETS, amounting to emissions reductions of 12 million tons CO2-equivalent (CO2e) between 2002 and 2006, which is 0.43% of total UK emissions over this period.

Report: UK strikes deal to work on climate with South Korea

Tokyo Cap-and-Trade (2010)
Tokyo was the first large-scale city to implement its emissions trading scheme. The government has set a target of 25% CO2 reduction relative to 2000 levels by 2020, and 50% below 2000 levels by 2050. The goal for Phase I of the programme (2010- 2014) is 6% reduction compared to 2002-2007 levels and the Phase II (2015-2019) objective is 17% reduction. The programme covers 40% of the industrial and commercial sectors’ CO2 emissions, which equates to 20% of all of Tokyo’s CO2 emissions. Unlike the EU ETS and RGGI, includes coverage of large-scale office buildings.

Japanese Cap-and-Trade (Planning phase)
Japan is the third biggest economy in the world, and, in 2010, its CO2 emissions placed it fifth among the world’s countries. As part of the Copenhagen Accord, Japan pledged to reduce GHG emissions 25% below 1990 levels by 2020, however, in a surprise announcement at climate talks in Poland recently, Japan said it would now aim to cut emissions 3.8% against 2005 levels by 2020. Momentum towards a mandatory, nation-wide trading scheme with absolute caps has stagnated since December 2010.

Report: Japan stuns UN by scrapping carbon reduction target

Indian Emissions Trading Scheme (Planning phase)
As of 2009, India was the world’s third largest CO2 emitter, and, through 2020, annual GDP growth is expected to be between 8% and 9%. By 2020, India is expected to contribute about 6% to global emissions. Since July 2010 there has been a nationwide carbon tax on coal for 50 rupees/ton of coal produced in and imported to India. Pilot ETS programmes are being launched in three states, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.

Report: Mumbai and Kolkata at ‘high risk’ from climate change

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(Pic: Sainsbury’s)

UK retail giant Sainsbury’s opened its second zero emissions store yesterday in the English city of Leicester.

The store’s onsite energy generator uses natural gas and biogas, its water usage comes from rainwater harvesting and other water efficient initiatives, and instead of going to landfill, surplus food is either donated to local charities, made into animal feed or used for energy.

Sainsbury’s aims to be the UK’s Greenest Grocer and achieve its 20×20 target to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by building and running highly sustainable, low carbon stores.

“Our new ‘Triple Zero’ stores in Leicester and Weymouth Gateway are examples of how we’re achieving this, by using power generated from waste in our supply chain and ‘Water Neutral’, which includes offsetting partnerships in the local community,” Neil Sachdev, Sainsbury’s property director, said.

The 81,700 sq ft store also has 1,200 solar panels on its roof generating enough power for 200 TVs, electric vehicle charging points and natural CO2 refrigeration units for its chillers and freezers which reduces its carbon footprint by 33%.

The new store’s sustainable features also include:

• A timber structural frame, creating a lower carbon footprint than a standard steel frame

• Energy efficient LED lighting, saving enough energy for 13 million cups of tea each year

• Over 120 prismatic roof lights to maximise natural light, which alone will save enough electricity to light more than 95 homes

• The petrol station has a unique roof canopy over the fuel pumps made of photovoltaic solar panels, to generate energy to run the kiosk

• Outside there is a Bee Hotel (nesting site) and Bee Café (bee friendly plants), providing a five star ‘Bee & Bee’ experience for solitary bees from next spring

• A comprehensive recycling centre for customers to recycle packaging and donate clothing and other items to Oxfam

• 100% of the waste produced during the construction of the store has been reused or recycled

The post Sainsbury’s opens low emissions supermarket appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Elsie esq.)

By Tim Radford

Far below the surface, the waters of south-east Asia are heating up. A region of the Pacific is now warming at least 15 times faster than at any time in the last 10,000 years.

If this finding – so far limited to the depths where the Pacific and Indian Oceans wash into each other – is true for the blue planet as a whole, then the questions of climate change take on a new urgency.

Yair Rosenthal of Rutgers University in New Brunswick and colleagues from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York, and at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, report in the journal Science that deep ocean warming could right now be taking much of the heat that meteorologists had expected to find in the atmosphere.

In the last few years, even though greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere have gone up, the rate of increase in global average temperatures has slowed and there is evidence that much of the expected heat is being absorbed by the oceans and carried beneath the surface.

Shells

But records of ocean temperatures are patchy, and in any case date back only half a century. Rosenthal and his colleagues decided that they could reliably calculate a pattern of temperature changes by looking at a record of deposition through time.

One little single-celled organism called Hyalinea balthica has evolved to live only at depths of 500 to 1,000 metres.

H.balthica makes a microscopic shell, and when it dies, this shell falls to the ocean bottom. It takes the ingredients for the shell from the elements dissolved in the water around it, and the chemical mix available varies with temperature: the warmer the water, the greater the ratio of magnesium to calcium – and this difference is then recorded in the surviving shell.

So the marine sediments around Indonesia preserve a thermal record of changes with time.

The scientists studied ocean cores to “read” a pattern of climate change over the last 10,000 years, since the end of the Ice Age.

The readings from the sediments mirror a series of already-known climate shifts – a very warm spell at the end of the Ice Age, a “medieval warm period” when vineyards flourished in Britain, and a “Little Ice Age” when rivers like the Thames of London routinely froze.

So equipped with a reliable guide to change the scientists were able to make sense of the changes in the last 60 years.

They found that ocean temperatures, at such depths, had warmed 15 times faster in the last 60 years that they did during the natural warming cycles of the last 10,000.

The research is incomplete, and its chief value may be in helping to improve the models used by climate scientists. But the implication is that the heat that should be registered in the atmosphere is now being absorbed by the deep oceans.

Complacency

This does not mean that climate scientists can stop worrying about global warming. “We may have underestimated the efficiency of the oceans as a storehouse for heat and energy,” Rosenthal said. “It may buy us some time – how much time I don’t really know – to come to terms with climate change. But it’s not going to stop climate change.”

His colleague Braddock Linsley of Lamont-Doherty said: “Our work showed that the intermediate waters in the Pacific had been cooling steadily from about 10,000 years ago.

“This places the recent warming of the Pacific intermediate waters in temporal context. The trend has now reversed in a big way and the deep ocean is warming.”

This article first appeared on the Climate News Network.

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(Pic: UN)

By Tim Radford

The amount of carbon dioxide that has already built up in the atmosphere is helping to accelerate the pace at which the Earth is warming, two scientists say.

The scientists urge the world to start reducing greenhouse emissions right now. There’s no time to be lost, they argue in Nature Climate Change. Future global temperatures depend on how much carbon dioxide has accumulated in the atmosphere, so as emissions increase, so does the rate of warming.

The reasoning by Myles Allen, of the University of Oxford in the UK, and Thomas Stocker, of the University of Bern in Switzerland, is complex. They are concerned with what they call peak-committed warming: how high the temperature can or is likely or is permitted to go.

Governments of the world have subscribed in principle to the proposition that they would like to limit global warming to 2°C above the levels before the Industrial Revolution, but to do this they will have to start reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, these are increasing.

Allen and Stocker warn that that peak CO2-induced warming is currently increasing at the same rate as cumulative CO2 emissions themselves. “At almost 2% per year, it is much faster than observed warming,” they say.

Their argument involves some fairly complex mathematics but some very-easy-to-understand assumptions. One assumption is that if the world starts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions right now, then peak warming will occur later in the century.

If governments delay action, and carry on for a limited period with what has become known as the “business-as-usual” scenario, then peak warming will arrive all the sooner.

“If we are aiming for peak warming of around 2°C, then as long as emissions are increasing at 1.8-1.9% per year, every year’s delay in reducing emissions increases peak warming by 1.8-1.9% of 2°C, or 0.04°C.

Delay

“If the same effort required in 2010 to limit CO2-induced warming to 2°C were applied starting in 2015, the resultant peak would be 10% higher, at 2.2°C,” they say. “Given the complexities of the climate issue, simple rules of thumb like this are a valuable way of comparing the impact of climate policies.”

In effect, the longer governments delay action, the more drastic such action must be in years to come, and the higher the average global temperatures will be when the world stops warming, and climates stabilise.

Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas, because it is long-lived, and because it is released in huge quantities from every combustion engine, from every fireplace, and from most of the world’s power-generating plants.

But it is not the only warming gas. Methane and black carbon – both of which are released by human action – also warm the planet. Methane doesn’t hang around in the atmosphere all that long, but weight for weight it is more than 20 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over a century.

In a second perspective essay in Nature Climate Change Myles Allen and five colleagues argue that there are very good reasons for reducing emissions of short-lived pollutants – both economic reasons and health reasons – but doing so will not buy time for the planet, unless carbon dioxide emissions are reduced at the same time.

“Even under the 2°C stabilization scenario, the combined impact of methane and black carbon emissions over the decade 2010 to 2020 is expected to increase the most likely peak warming by less than a few hundredths of a degree,” they say. In contrast, long-lived climate pollutant emissions such as carbon dioxide will contribute around 10 times that.

This article first appeared on the Climate News Network.

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(Pic: Mario Roberto Durán Ortiz)

Brazil: A Brazilian network of 30 environmental groups, the Climate Observatory, says emission levels of greenhouse gases in Latin America’s biggest country fell last year to their lowest in two decades. Greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 1.48 billion metric tons in 2012 compared to 1.43 billion metric tons in 1992. Their highest point was 2.86 billion metric tons in 1995. (Las Vegas Sun)

Europe: The IPCC needs to submit courageous and realistic proposals when presenting its reports on the impact of climate change in Warsaw, Poland, this month, writes Eberhard Rhein, senior adviser to the Brussels-based think tank the European Policy Centre and former director at the EU Commission in charge of the Mediterranean and Arab world. (EurActiv)

UK: Britain has begun paying firms millions of pounds in compensation to industrial companies to help shield them from higher energy bills due to European carbon permits, a government spokeswoman said on Thursday. (EurActiv)

India: Union Environment and Forests Minister, Jayanthi Natarajan, says “India is not a nay-sayer. This government is very anxious that we work with the rest of the world to make sure that the 2°C mark is not breached.” (The Hindu)

Europe: The European Union has announced plans to formally ratify an extension to the Kyoto Protocol that was agreed at last year’s UN climate summit in Doha. (RTCC)

US: The Department of Energy has awarded $84 million to 18 projects across the country to help limit carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. (Las Vegas Sun)

Europe: Whether or not rich countries should pay compensation to most vulnerable states is expected to prove controversial at the UN climate talks next week in Poland. (RTCC)

US: The military is forecast to purchase nearly 100,000 non-tactical electric vehicles to meet Co2 reduction. (RTCC)

Europe: UN climate chief Christiana Figueres says governments must advance in providing climate finance and creating a loss and damage mechanism. (RTCC)

Research: A £15 million institute dedicated to studying how climate change is affecting Britain’s woodlands is to be created at the University of Birmingham. The new centre will also examine how trees can be protected from the threat of invasive pests and diseases, such as the Chalara fraxinea virus which has caused the spread of Ash dieback across the country. (Telegraph)

UK: Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has asked Tesla Motors chief Elon Musk to advise the government on how to boost growth in the UK’s low emission vehicle sector. (RTCC)

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The European emissions trading scheme is the main hurdle in maintaining the slowdown. (Pic: rwkvisual)

By Nilima Choudhury

The increase in global CO2 emissions has slowed down this year, thanks to an increased shift towards renewables and energy efficiency.

Actual global emissions of carbon dioxide reached a new record of 34.5 billion tonnes in 2012, but new report shows the rate of increase in CO2 emissions was 1.1% in 2012.

That’s less than half the average annual increase of 2.9% seen over the last decade.

The researchers, based at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, said the small 1.1% increase in emissions last year could be the first sign of a more permanent decline in emissions.

They credit this to “remarkable” falls in China, the EU and USA, collectively responsible for more than 50% of global emissions.

Hurdles

Speaking to RTCC, Pieter Boot, head of climate and energy at PBL, said there were three obstacles to making the slowdown permanent with the main one being the European Union which has a 11% share of global emissions.

The report said if the European economic recession continues it could “hinder restoring the functioning of the carbon market of the EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) and thus the ability to set and meet more ambitious emission reduction targets.”

The European Union saw its emissions fall by 1.6%, due to a decrease in energy consumption (oil and gas) and a reduction in road freight transport.

Renewable energy increased at an accelerating speed in Europe. From 1992 it took 15 years for the share to double from 0.5% to 1.1%, but only six more years to do so again, to 2.4% by 2012.

The second is China, said Boot. The country is currently responsible for 29% share of emissions, although this decreased by 3.6% in 2012, twice as fast as in 2011.

Boot said: “I think [the Chinese] will really try hard to achieve this because of the feeling of the population with regard to clean air.”

This 2012 increase in fuel consumption was mainly driven by the increase in building construction and expansion of infrastructure, as indicated by the growth in cement and steel production.

But China is also ramping up renewable energy generation, which is expected to make up half of China’s new power capacity through 2013. Emissions are anticipated to peak in 2027 as the share of coal in the country’s energy portfolio falls from 67% in 2012 to 44% in 2030.

According to the report, these efforts puts the country back on track to meet its 2015 target according to China’s 12th Five Year Plan, with an almost 17% cumulative reduction in energy intensity per unit of GDP, compared to 2010.

Thirdly, Boot said the US needs to continue its shift from coal to gas and renewable energy to contribute to the continued fall in CO2 emissions.

In 2012, its CO2 emissions decreased by 4%, mainly because of a further fuel shift from coal to gas in the power sector, due to the low gas price. In recent years, the United States expanded shale gas fracturing and has now become the largest natural gas producer in the world.

These figures are important now that the climate change talks in Poland in a couple of weeks are fast approaching.

World consensus

But Boot is not hopeful that any global agreement will be reached at the forthcoming UN summit in Warsaw to help this continued slowdown.

“In order to know what to expect from these pledges you must have a reviewing procedure and that’s something that they are discussing very hard because countries like China of course don’t like so much being reviewed by other [countries]. They want to do everything themselves.

“This reviewing procedure [is] important because then you really can prepare [for the] Paris meeting.”

The post Global emissions could be heading for ‘permanent slowdown’ appeared first on Climate Home News.

(Pic: Flickr\Tesla Autobots)

By Nilima Choudhury

Germany has delayed a vote to rubber stamp a deal to limit emissions from new cars by 2020 for a third time.

In a secret session on Friday, the Lithuanian Presidency agreed to postpone legislation agreed in June which sets a new target of 95g CO2/km by 2020.

Germany is reportedly exerting “massive pressure” on member states to slow the new emission limits.

Liberal Democrat MEP and environment spokesman Chris Davies, who is part of the negotiating team on this issue, says this is purely about protecting manufacturers like BMW and Daimler.

“This is legislation that would require cars to do more miles to the gallon and it is good for the environment, good for drivers and good for the UK car industry,” he said.

“A deal was negotiated in good faith between the Parliament and Ministers and now Germany wants to wriggle out of it. Britain should not be going along with that sort of sharp practice.”

Last week RTCC reported Germany was holding up talks, three months after Chancellor Angela Merkel and UK Prime Minister David Cameron colluded to block the EU’s first attempt to drive the laws through.

The decision has now been passed to European Environment Ministers that meet on 14 October.

They are also expected to approve an emissions deal on vans that was ratified today, and discuss Europe’s position ahead of the 2015 UN Conference on Climate Change.

If the European Council agrees to weaken the deal then there will be a second reading when Parliament can reintroduce its proposals for 2025 targets and the strengthened testing of vehicles.

“It’s totally inexcusable and undemocratic that Germany has been able to delay the vote as many times as needed to garner enough support to block the deal,” said Greg Archer from the Brussels NGO Transport & Environment.

“The Council must make a decision and soon. Either it ratifies the deal that has been welcomed by drivers, auto suppliers and the vast majority of EU countries, or it scuppers the plan and reopens negotiations with the Parliament. If a new deal has to be struck, the Parliament should insist on its 2025 target of 68g of carbon dioxide per kilometre.”

Last month, BMW was recognised by market research company Frost & Sullivan as a sustainable and innovative auto manufacturer, with Daimler a very close second.

But a recent report by Brussels-based International Council on Clean Transportation pointed the finger at BMW and Daimler, which appear to be taking advantage of loopholes in EU emissions cap legislation by presenting artificially low carbon emissions to consumers.

The report said: “The improvements reported by BMW, Daimler and General Motors appear to be primarily attributable to the flexibilities in the testing procedure, with real world improvements in fuel economy likely to be far less than those reported on the basis of vehicle tests.”

The post Germany delays EU car emissions deal for third time appeared first on Climate Home News.

European Commission. (Pic: Sébastien Bertrand)

By Nilima Choudhury 

The European carbon market (EU ETS) is likely to remain oversupplied with allowances in circulation until 2027, unless tighter controls are placed on businesses, say analysts.

Stig Schjølset, head of carbon analysis at market intelligence company Thomson Reuters Point Carbon told RTCC that it is a lack of political ambition that is holding back the EU from making decisions to increase carbon pricing, thereby reducing emissions.

“If you put in place more ambitious targets for the period between 2020 and 2030, it will drive up the need for further [emissions] reductions and carbon prices.”

Schjølset said the low carbon price that is available today and “potentially for another decade” could encourage the construction of fossil fuel plants.

This, he says, “will mean that the investment decisions that should be put in place to make the European economy greener might be postponed for too many years and that might make it difficult to meet the long term targets that everyone has signed up to.”

The total number of permits issued (either auctioned or allocated) determines the price for carbon. The actual carbon price is determined by the market.

For any allowance price increase towards 2030 to occur and therefore cut emissions, Europe needs a “high carbon” lock-in, which refers to stopping the construction of further fossil fuel plants and instead letting those that remain continue until the end of their lifespan.

But market participants are currently not incentivised enough to invest in emission abatement technologies and to stop financing new fossil fuel facilities due to the oversupply of allowances, which will likely lead to too high a price for allowances and less flexibility in the system over the coming decades.

Legislation

The European Commission is expected to present proposals for a 2030 energy and climate framework by the end of this year.

A key element of this 2030 discussion is whether reforms should be implemented to strengthen the EU ETS, in order to get the EU on track towards its long-term ambition to reduce carbon emissions by at least 80% by 2050.

“Our price forecast is based on the assumption that the EU takes on a greenhouse gas reduction target of 40% by 2030, implying that the reduction factor in the EU ETS would increase from 1.74% under the current legislation to 2.5% from 2021,” said Schjølset.

“Even though it is likely that more ambitious policies will be put in place over the coming years, we think carbon prices will essentially remain at single-digit levels, averaging €7.7/t in the period up to 2020.

From the start of phase 4, which is scheduled to run from 2021-28, we expect the market to be short on an annual basis. This will gradually erode the accumulated oversupply and prices will likely increase rapidly as more expensive reductions will be needed to meet the cap.”

The long-term price forecast is based on the assumption that the EU will take on a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030, that there will be no access to international offsets in the 2021-30 period and that the share of renewables in the final energy consumption will increase to 30% by the end of the next decade.

Moreover, Schjølset said he expects the annual economic growth in Europe to average 1.6% in 2013-2020 and 1.9% in 2021-30.

In July, the European Parliament passed market reforms to introduce a one-off event known as ‘backloading’ or holding back allowances to limit supply and lift the price toward a level that might stimulate CO2 reductions.

The EU currently accounts for around 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, which rose globally in 2012 by 1.4%, according to the International Energy Agency.

Overall, Schjølset remains optimistic: “We think [all the heads of state] will sign up to the long term targets and put in place some interim targets in order to get there.”

Trading

Separately, London-based NGO Sandbag is warning that the UK government’s ‘bonfire of regulations’ will endanger the integrity of the scheme in the country.

Under reforms to the scheme, penalties for not surrendering emissions permits are set to be “dramatically” lowered. The amendments also set out that non-compliance is to be treated under civil, not criminal law.

Furthermore, the changes give the regulator total power of discretion, allowing them to further reduce or even waive penalties entirely.

Sandbag’s Phil MacDonald says: “These changes appear to contravene the ETS Directive which clearly states that installations not paying for their pollution are penalised to the tune of €100 ($135) per tonne of CO2.

“Allowing the regulator to reduce or even remove a penalty gives industry great incentive to lobby regulators into dropping fines. We’re particularly worried by regulatory capture as a result of these changes. Allowing the regulator the power to choose what the penalty is, or whether there should be a penalty at all, invites corruption.”

To date fines for EU ETS noncompliance have totalled approximately £5 million ($8 million) in the UK, with £2.8 million ($4.5 million) coming from ExxonMobil’s single 2011 fine.

These fines are marginal considering the EU carbon market was worth $148 billion in 2011.

Changing the regulation so dramatically to reduce fines seems to have little to do with lightening the regulatory burden, said Sandbag. It believes that robust penalties and the threat of criminal convictions are important deterrents to stop ETS noncompliance and reflect the serious implications of defrauding both the market and the environment.

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(Pic: Ell Brown)

By Nilima Choudhury 

The Royal Bank of Scotland’s loans to coal, oil and gas companies puts its carbon emissions up to 1,200 times higher than the figure reported by the bank, claims new research.

The study by campaign group World Development Movement (WDM) showed that between January 2008 and mid-May 2013, the RBS group made loans or other investments to energy companies totalling over £131 billion.

This drives the bank’s 2012 carbon footprint up to 911 million tonnes of CO2.

The bank officially reported 735,000 tonnes under the voluntary Carbon Disclosure Project which WDM claims includes only its direct use of fossil fuels and electricity, and business travel.

Miriam Ross, WDM campaigner told RTCC: “We picked RBS as an example as it’s the bank that the government, and therefore the UK taxpayer, has the biggest stake in.

“RBS is using our money to bankroll climate change. RBS is the only bank whose fossil fuel lending we’ve looked into in this level of detail, but looking at other banks, for example HSBC, would be likely to yield similar comparisons.”

The financial data used in this study, which formed the basis of WDM’s calculations, is publicly available, and was accessed via a Bloomberg terminal.

The campaign group is calling on the government to force banks, pension funds and other finance companies to publish the emissions from the coal, oil and gas extraction they finance worldwide.

“We need tough government action to wean the UK finance sector off dirty energy, and making banks come clean on the emissions from the fossil fuels they finance would be the first step,” said Murray.

New rules coming into force in October mean companies like RBS will be obliged to report the carbon emissions from their own energy use, but will not have to tell the public about emissions from the dirty energy projects they finance.

Liz Murray, campaigner at the WDM, said: “RBS’s true carbon footprint dwarfs the emissions not just of Scotland where it is headquartered but of the whole of the UK.”

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A report by UK-based Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and WWF revealed that emission cuts of 3% would be enough to put the US corporate sector on track for a 25% reduction against 1990 levels – equivalent to cutting total annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 by 1.2 gigatonnes of CO2 on 2010 levels.

Investment data from 500 companies publicly trading on the US stock market showed 79% saw higher returns on investments aimed specifically at reducing carbon emissions than on their overall portfolios. These earned an average ROI of 196%, with an average payback period of between two and three years.

“World governments have moved far too slow to address the climate change threat and people are looking for leadership from the brands they trust to take concrete actions now,” said Carter Roberts, President and CEO of WWF.

“These numbers provide a glimpse into the future – where smart companies slashed emissions, increased profits and helped secure a better future for all of us.”

Walmart has installed solar panels on many of its stores. (Source: Walmart)

CDP and WWF say companies would only need to invest between 3-4% of their capital expenditure in carbon reduction projects each year to capture these savings.

However, not all companies can raise this capital. The report advises capital constraints can be overcome by incorporating energy efficiency into existing operational improvement programmes thereby negating the need to allocate additional capital.

Companies like Volvo found it easier to obtain additional capital after showing the initial returns whereas oil supplier Sprint increased the fuel efficiency of its car fleet when vehicles needed replacing

Effortless as this may sound, the report highlights other barriers. Management can also act as an obstacle to reducing carbon in the workplace. A concrete business case needs to be made in a bid to change their focus from the short-term outlook of investing in driving growth to a more long-term plan towards energy efficiency.

Most companies may feel they do not have adequate expertise in this field in order to put in place the most cost-efficient solution, the report found. However, the simple answer to this is to bring in external providers.

The report warns that waiting until 2020 to implement the changes it suggests would be too late. CDP and WWF have calculated that companies would need to cut carbon emissions by 9.7% annually to meet the minimum 2050 target.

Paul Simpson, CEO of CDP said: “Corporations must act now not only to address environmental risk, but also to aid economic recovery in the United States and build resilience. Investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy saves cost, stimulates innovation, creates jobs and builds energy independence and security.”

Engage with the wider community

CDP and WWF advise US companies keen to capture the full potential of emissions reduction need to explore wider collaborations. These include local and national governments, NGOs, industry associations and research partners to encourage policy development.

Campaigners in the US are currently waiting for President Barack Obama to unveil measures to combat climate change, which could possibly including Environmental Protection Agency curbs on power plant emissions.

Companies like UK-based BT launched a similar method to cut carbon emissions today called Net Good.

Mark Kenber, CEO of The Climate Group which endorsed BT’s methodology, said: “Net Good is not another form of corporate responsibility; it’s a new way of doing business. The Climate Group is delighted to be working with BT and other businesses at the forefront of innovation to help them adopt Net Good practices, engage stakeholders and achieve tangible, measurable change in the communities they operate in”.

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1. The world still believes in Common But Differentiated Responsibility

Small islands and oceans both got a boost at Rio+20 (Source: Rafael Avila Coya)

This week RTCC dissected the text to find out exactly what the consequences of it would be for climate change.

Small island states and the oceans received a boost while the increased use  and cost effectiveness of renewable energy was promoted.

Perhaps most importantly, the text brings back into play the principles of Common But Differentiated Responsibility. This short phrase means some countries have a greater duty to pay for the damage to the earth than others – usually the ‘developed’ world.

It’s an intensely controversial topic – that has dominated the last three major climate conferences – so the fact CBDR made it into the final Rio+20 text is significant.

But not everything or everyone made the cut. We analysed what was omitted from the text.

The green economy, finance or state commitments countries are all missing – key components of any future climate deal.

2. Rio+40 could look very different

With the Earth Summit seen by many as a colossal failure, NGOs and Trade Unions called for civil society to ‘mobilise’ for change.

Could we soon see a new era for civil society with a place at the negotiating table?

Youth and Civil Society groups staged a walk out at the conference to protest against governments lack of action (Source: Youth Policy)

Monique Barbut from the Global Environment Facility (a key UN Financial mechanism) called for more synergy to be created between the three Rio Conventions on climate change, biodiversity and desertification. All fighting the same problem – so let’s fight as one!

Meanwhile Carbon War Room chief and former President of Costa Rica Jose Maria Figueres has said that negotiators should not be involved in the process for more than four or five years to ensure we have a group of negotiators who are ‘connected to reality’.

3. Business leads on sustainable development

Greenpeace chief Kumi Naidoo slated politicians in Rio for being in the pockets of the corporations, but the conference did demonstrate the work that businesses large and small are doing to drive sustainability.

Take wind energy giants Suzlon, or Airbus – who told us about their plans to run a ‘perfect flight’ on 50% biofuels.

But what is the motivation of business to get involved in these talks? For Norine Kennedy from the US Council for International Business the answer is simple: “Business cannot succeed in societies that fail.”

4. The UK sees boost in renewables, but also in emissions 

The UK has a long way to go on its climate and energy policies (© UN)

Meanwhile, outside of the world of negotiations, new figures from the National Office of Statistics looking at the UK’s energy and environment performance were a mixed bag.

While some progress have been made on renewables, forestry and fossil fuel use, the country is still not meeting its emission targets.

This was a warning echoed by the UK’s Committee on Climate Change this week, as they said Britain could face missing climate goals because the economic slump, not proactive policy, has been the main reason behind the greenhouse gas emissions fall seen in recent years.

5. Australia’s outback could bear brunt from climate change

New research this week from the University of Adelaide warned that South Australia’s Arabunna region could be one of the worst hit regions from climate change, as it becomes hotter and drier.

Damage in the area could include bushfires, dust storms and drought and could impact local food sources, warned the report.

It urged urgent work to set up adaptation plans, and said working alongside the indigenous communities in the area would be vital in doing this.

The post A week in climate change: Five things we learnt appeared first on Climate Home News.

Forty of the world’s most populous cities have launched a programme to measure, report and verify their carbon emissions.

Smog is by no means the sole preserve of developing cities. (Source: Flickr/AustinEvan)

The deal – the first of its kind involving so many cities – includes the likes of Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Paris, Portland – USA and Taipei.

Brokered by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability and the C40 Cities Climate Leadership group, the new protocol could play a key role in harmonizing emission measurement and reporting processes across the world.

The protocol will initially be piloted in selected cities to establish a single standard to measure greenhouse gas emissions.

It should provide policymakers with more understanding of what the key drivers of emissions within cities are, and what mitigation programmes have had the most success.

Speaking to RTCC just after the launch, ICLEI President and former Vancouver deputy Mayor David Cadman said the announcement heralded a new age in climate change policymaking.

ICLEI President David Cadman from Responding to Climate Change on Vimeo.

“Nations of the world get together and say – we’d like to have a greenhouse gas protocol but its got to be measurable, reportable and verifiable – and that’s very complicated. We go away – put it together and say: ‘here’s MRV, we’re doing it’.

“We take the straw men that are put up by national governments for not doing things, and knock them down and show how we can do things.”

Cadman expects the numbers of cities involved to swell rapidly over the next year – predicting that over 40 Indian cities could be reporting in the next two years.

Dry run

ICLEI’s climate team stress this is a pilot – with an initial aim to clarify the MRV process for cities – after which the scheme can be rolled out across the world.

They expect to resolve complex issues such as where emissions from vehicles in transit between cities belong, and how to allocate power station emissions when some plants feed three or four conurbations.

Data harmonisation sounds boring – but it would lend clarity to an area that for long has been clouded by a bewildering variety of measurements and claims from cities across the world.

Perhaps because of this low starting point – Cadman says that despite his delight at yesterday’s agreement – he doesn’t expect all signatories to deliver.

“It will vary. There are a group of them who have been deeply involved in this process that I think will implement it very quickly. They want to be shown as leaders,” he said.

“There will be others who are less keen, and there will be others who are keen but who don’t have the resources – there will be a mix.

“I think we’ll be able to show in 2, 3, 4, 5 years a very substantive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from a number of cities around the world that will show that if nations acted in the same way we could be much much farther ahead.”

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The United States became the latest country to submit their emissions data to the UNFCCC, showing a rise of 3.2% in 2010 compared with the previous year.

The latest data from the States follows two consecutive years of falling emissions, blamed on the recession. As economic output increased again, so did energy consumption across many sectors, resulting in the rise, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency.

It shows that the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases – behind China – would have to move much more aggressively if it seeks to reach the targets set by President Barack Obama for tackling climate change.

As countries like the US and Japan try to grow out of recessions, many area also experiencing rises in greenhouse gas emissions(© UN Photo)

In the run up to the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009, Obama pledged that the US could cut emissions by 17% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels.

With emissions falling 5.3% from 2005 to 2010, the goal looked possible, but last year saw them hit 6.82 billion metric tonnes – up from 6.61 billion in 2009.

Levels are still below the 7.25 billion level recorded in 2007, before the onset of the recession.

At the Durban climate conference last December, parties agreed on a new pathway which would lead to a legally binding emissions reduction commitment to come into force by 2020.

As the countries begin discussion on what this should look like, and how deep cuts should be the latest trends shown by the US are in no way limited to their country alone and raise questions about how much these pledges mean without actions to back them up.

Mixed results under Kyoto?

Not being signed up to the Kyoto Protocol, the US is not bound by targets that some other parties are bound by – and emission reductions they are aimed for are voluntary under the Copenhagen Accord.

They have also come under fire from environmentalists, as emissions reductions reported by the country are compared to 2005, rather than the 1990 levels used by countries under the protocol.

If compared to 1990 levels, the UNFCCC official figures show the US has increased its emissions by around 7%.

The Kyoto Protocol also came under criticism this year, when Canada withdrew from the process, to avoid facing the penalty of not meeting its targets. Many questioned the force of the commitment if countries were able to remove themselves so easily.

With targets of 6% reductions based on 1990, in 2009, the country had seen its emissions rise by around 17%.

However, for many countries, the structure of the Kyoto Protocol has appeared to be a positive. With targets of 8% reductions, the EU has far surpassed their expectations, with around 17% reductions in 2009 on 1990 levels, according to UNFCCC figures.

Figures from 2009 also show Japan to be on its way to its 6% reduction target, although the country’s emissions submission to the UNFCCC for 2010 shows a 4.2% rise on the previous year – once again attributed to economic recovery following the recession.

With the first period of Kyoto coming to a close at the end of this year – and with countries continuing to grow out of recession – it appears that the final results could be somewhat mixed.

Moving forward towards a new legally binding commitment – a complex agreement which will include all countries worldwide – lessons must be learnt from Kyoto to both incentivise and enforce the commitments which are set ahead.

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Ed Davey has replaced Chris Huhne as the UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change (Source: Flickr/DECC)

UK greenhouse gas emissions climbed by 3.1% from 2009 to 2010, but remain lower than pre-recession levels.

The latest figures released by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) today, show that although emission levels rose, they have not offset the dramatic 8.7% decrease from 2008 to 2009.

While most sectors’ emissions remained at a similar level, residential use and energy supply both increased by 15.1% and 2.8% respectively.

“Emissions were up in 2010 because of the exceptionally cold weather and greater use of fossil fuels,” said Ed Davey, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change.

“One year won’t knock the UK off meeting its long term emission reduction targets, but it serves to underline the importance of the Coalition’s policies for insulating homes to cut bills and emissions and moving to greener alternative forms of energy.”

The six-month shutdown of the country’s largest nuclear reactor meant additional gas and coal was used to provide electricity in its place.

The sensitivity of residential energy use to the weather emphasises the contribution that home energy efficiency can make, shining the spotlight in the Government’s Green Deal energy efficiency loan scheme set to launch in October 2012.

Despite the latest figures, the UK’s emissions were 30.9% lower than the 1990 totals. The country has a binding commitment through the EU to reduce them by 20% by 2020 and a self-imposed target of 35% for the same period.

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While the Sun's output is likely to decrease by 2100, it will not negate rising tempuratures from climate change (Source: dingbat2005/flickr)

New research has found that while the sun’s output will temporarily decrease, it will not be enough to negate rising temperatures caused by greenhouse gases.

The study by the UK’s Met Office and the University of Reading looked to establish the most likely changes in the Sun’s activity over the next 90 years and how this could affect near-surface temperatures on Earth.

It found that the most likely outcome was the Sun’s output would decrease, causing a reduction in global temperatures of 0.08°C.

This is compared to the expected 2.5°C warming over the same period due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Gareth Jones, from the Met Office said: “This research shows that the most likely change in the Sun’s output will not have a big impact on global temperatures or do much to slow the warming we expect from greenhouse gases.”

He added it is important to note the study is based on a single climate model rather than multiple models which would capture climate uncertainties.

They were based on the IPCC’s B2 scenario for emissions that does not involve efforts to mitigate.

The study also showed that if solar output reduced below that seen in the Maunder Minimum – the lowest observed level of solar activity seen between 1645 and 1715 – the global temperature reduction would be 0.13°C.

This would still not be sufficient to curb the effects of climate change.

Peter Stott, also from the Met Office said: “Our findings suggest that a reduction of solar activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases on global temperatures in the 21^st Century.”

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Fatih Birol warned that the world could see a rise in greenhouse gas emissions as countries turn their backs on nuclear (Source: Friends of Europe/flickr)

Greenhouse gas emissions will rise in the short to medium term as countries abandon nuclear power, says the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Chief Economist.

Following the Fukushima disaster that hit Japan in March last year, Germany has already begun to scale back its nuclear power capacity, while other countries including France and Japan are considering scaling back their programmes.

Speaking at the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, Fatih Birol warned that the increase in coal use that would result from this move would far outweigh any boost in renewable energy.

“We will see high CO2 levels if we take out one of the major technologies that will help us deal with climate change,” he said.

While saying plans to fill the gap with renewables were bold, he warned that in reality it could have devastating impacts for the climate.

Birol also used today’s speech to once again call for a phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies, which he says ensure poorer people remain without access to energy.

“To say we want renewables, but then on the other hand give fossil fuels subsidies doesn’t work,” he said. “It’s like you go for a run and then have a big lunch of junk food.

“This is wrong – only 8% of subsidies go to the 20% on the lowest incomes. A well designed subsidy reform with direct assistance for the poor may be a very well thought out energy policy.”

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In this year's starkest warning the IEA said the door for action against climate change would only remain open until 2017 (Source: UN)

Scientists offered  stark warnings in 2011 about what the world would experience if climate change ran out of control.

As people ready themselves for a new year full of new promise, RTCC asks what lessons can be learnt from last year’s key research findings.

Greenhouse gas emissions

One of the clearest warnings in 2011 came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) who said that the world has just five years to prevent dangerous climate change.

Speaking at the report’s launch Fatih Birol, the IEA’s cheif economist said: “If by 2017 there has not been major investment then the door for two degrees will close. We looked at the current infrastructure in terms of power generation and vehicles. Under current policy we are looking at a potential warming of six degrees.”

This was supported by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report ‘Bridging the Emissions Gap’. It found limiting warming to 2°C is possible but would require a speedy roll-out of renewable technology and increased energy efficiency.

The report also warned that without such action there would continue to be an annual gap of 12 gigatonnes between what the world is producing and what sciencists recommend it can take.

These warnings came just weeks after a report from the US Department of Energy (DOE) found that 2010 saw a record rise in global carbon emissions – showing that the dip caused by the global recession was well and truly over.

The DOE’s figures also calculated that greenhouse emission levels were higher than the worst case scenario outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) four years ago, a finding that was echoed by the IEA and the Global Carbon Project this year.

2012 could also see a shift in the way that countries think about and record their emissions following research this year. Currently countries’ registered emissions are only those produced within the states boundaries.

Research this year from the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research looked to take into account the role imports and exports and consumption patterns could have when reporting emissions.

Within the study, a country which has high emissions but also exports a lot of products overseas – like China – would see its registered emissions go down, while a country like the UK which imports a lot of goods would see their recorded emissions go up.

Extreme weather

The weather was another hot topic this year. In February research from the University of Oxford and the UK’s MET Office  became the first of its kind that attempted to directly link a weather event and climate change.

They concluded that the severe flooding the UK experienced in 2000 could be attributed to climate change.

In April, another attempt was made to develop this link. This time research published in the journal Science examined the ‘mega-heatwaves’ which baked much of Europe in 2003 and 2010.

The research called for adaptation methods to be put in place, such as early warning systems and increased help for the vulnerable. It predicted heatwaves would increase in frequency.

A special report by the IPCC also aimed to clarify the link. Unlike other studies, this research looked at multiple types of weather events and found that rainfall, storms and droughts will be more frequent with uncontrolled climate change.

Speaking at the launch of the report summary Dr Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the IPCC said: “We want policy makers to pick up several areas of this report to come up with actions at all levels; national, regional and international.”

2011 finished with figures from the UK MET Office revealing that 2011 was the second warmest year on record in the UK.

Glacier melt and rising seas

As well as increased weather extremes, research this year pointed towards the growing threat of glacier melt and sea level rise on people’s lives.

Two separate reports, one from the US based National Snow and Ice Data Center and one from the University of Bremen point towards record sea ice melt in the Artic during the summer months, a figure which is backed up by NASA.

Meanwhile the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found that sea levels were increasing at the highest rate in over 2000 years.

After examining sediments from the US Atlantic Coast the research found that after many centuries with fairly stable sea levels, these suddenly started to rise around the year 1900.

Research published at COP17 in Durban from the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) – which is responsible for tracking glacier retreat – found examples across all regions of Asia’s mountainous Hindu Kush-Himalayan, where 30% of the world’s glaciers are found alongside some of the world’s highest peaks, including Mount Everest.

Climate impacts

Research this year also looked at where the effects of climate change will be felt the most.

A study by the MET Office’s Hadley Centre found that the impacts of climate will be shared across the globe. Their research focused on 24 countries, both in the developed and developing world and found that a majority would see rises in temperatures as well as increased risk from sea level rise, flooding and declining food security.

Meanwhile a study from Maplecroft, mapped countries’ vulnerability to climate change. This highlighted the  fact that those countries that did least to cause the problem would be most vulnerable to future impacts.

A report out this year from the Foresight Group predicted widespread migration away from areas at high risk from climate disasters. It warned that previous research into this area had been underestimated.

Renewables

Not all of this year’s research pointed to doom and gloom. In May, the IPCC released another special report which took a look at the potential for renewables in supplementing energy supply.

The report found that as much as 80% of the world’s energy could be produced by renewables by 2050 if it were backed by the right policies. This in turn could mean cumulative greenhouse gas saving equivalent of 220-560 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide between 2010-2050.

Researchers at WWF predicted even higher levels of renewable capability in their report.

Their Energy Report paints a scenario where by 2050, the world is run on 100% renewable energy, a target which WWF says is achievable.

Moving into 2012

2011 was a remarkable year both in terms of quality and weight of climate research conducted. Despite a continued climate skeptic camp, there can be little doubt about the cause and effects of climate change.

For now there is still time but Fatih Birol from the IEA warned, this time is running out.

In the UK, companies are showing their faith in the renewables sector, with £2.5 billion worth of investment, meanwhile wind company Vestas has ended its year with deals in Poland, Germany, France, the UK and Pakistan – representing over 259MW of power.

While science and business are leading the pace heading into the new year, the question now is will the politicians follow?

Contact the author of this story @rtcc_tierney or email ts@rtcc.org

CLIMATE CHANGE TV: IPCC chief Dr Rajendra Pachauri says he’s worried at the ‘lack of urgency’ among the world’s politicians to tackle climate change.

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